The Daft.ie House Price Report · 3 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2013 Q1 Introduction Ronan...

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Introduction by Ronan Lyons, Economist, Daft.ie The Daft.ie House Price Report An analysis of recent trends in the Irish residential sales market 2013 Q1

Transcript of The Daft.ie House Price Report · 3 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2013 Q1 Introduction Ronan...

Introduction by Ronan Lyons, Economist, Daft.ie

The Daft.ie House Price ReportAn analysis of recent trends in the Irish residential sales market

2013 Q1

IntroductionRonan Lyons, Economist, Daft.ie

2 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2013 Q1 Continued on next page >

The Dublin differential – some warning signs for Government

Ronan Lyons is an economic researcher based at Balliol College, Oxford, where he lectures and is undertaking his doctorate in urban economics. He is also Economist with Daft.ie

The last 12 months have been one of changes in Ireland’s housing market. Cast your

mind back to late 2011. Then, asking prices in Dublin were falling at a rate of more than

20%, year-on-year. The year following Ireland’s entry into the Troika programme in

December 2010 was probably the worst in Ireland’s property market crash, with rapidly

falling prices and an even more precipitous fall in transactions symptoms of a lack of

confidence in Ireland’s economic future.

With the launch of this Q1 report for 2013, however, there is a vastly different picture

emerging. The Daft.ie asking price index in March 2013 stood just 2.3% lower than a year

previously, the slowest pace of price falls since late 2007. The new house price index

based on the Residential Property Price Register shows a similar slow-down in house

price falls. But that national average hides huge differences around the country.

In South County Dublin, asking prices are now 6% higher than a year ago, a rate of

change not seen since early 2007. After 19 straight quarters of falling prices, they have

now risen in that area in four of the last five quarters. Prices are also higher, year-on-year,

in Dublin city centre and in the South City region, while in the North City region, they are

roughly stable (down -0.5% year-on-year).

Annual change in asking prices, by region

2007 II III IV 2008 II III IV 2009 II III IV 2010 II III IV 2011 II III IV 2012 II III IV 2013

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

15.0%

10.0%

■ Dublin ■ Elsewhere

Fall in prices, selected property types, 2007-2013

III IV 2008 II III IV 2009 II III IV 2010 II III IV 2011 II III IV 2012 II III IV 2013

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

90

80

100

0

■ 4-bed detached, SCD 4-bed detached, Mayo ■ 1-bed apartment, SCD 1 bed apartment, Mayo

3 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2013 Q1

IntroductionRonan Lyons, Economist, Daft.ie

The Dublin differential – some warning signs for Government

In contrast, in Connacht-Ulster, asking prices are 15% lower now than a year ago. This means that

the fall from the peak in Dublin is now smaller than in Connacht-Ulster. The first graph below shows

the huge contrast between prices trends in Dublin and those elsewhere. It seemed – from late 2007,

when prices in Dublin had started to fall but were still rising elsewhere, to mid-2010, when the rate

of decline outside had persistently been lower than in the capital – that house prices in Dublin were

being punished for past excesses.

In fact, this was just a result of differences in properties around the country. A key point to remember

in Ireland’s property crash is that smaller properties have seen larger percentage falls from the peak.

Once this is joined up to the fact that Dublin has on average smaller properties than elsewhere, it is

easier to see that the apparently larger fall in house prices in Dublin is mostly a reflection of different

stocks of property in urban and rural areas.

Once the switch is made to a like-for-like basis, a very different picture is emerging. The second

graph below shows what has happened prices for two like-for-like properties in South County

Dublin (solid line) and in Mayo (the dashed line): a four-bedroom detached house (the orange lines)

and a one-bedroom apartment (the blue lines). For all properties, the peak – the third quarter of

2007 – has been set to 100.

Annual change in asking prices, by region

2007 II III IV 2008 II III IV 2009 II III IV 2010 II III IV 2011 II III IV 2012 II III IV 2013

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

15.0%

10.0%

■ Dublin ■ Elsewhere

Fall in prices, selected property types, 2007-2013

III IV 2008 II III IV 2009 II III IV 2010 II III IV 2011 II III IV 2012 II III IV 2013

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

90

80

100

0

■ 4-bed detached, SCD 4-bed detached, Mayo ■ 1-bed apartment, SCD 1 bed apartment, Mayo

4 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2013 Q1

IntroductionRonan Lyons, Economist, Daft.ie

The Dublin differential – some warning signs for Government

First, it is immediately clear just how much prices for smaller properties have fallen by more.

Prices for a one-bedroom apartment in South County Dublin are down 62% from the peak while

in Mayo they are down almost 72%. In contrast, the price of the detached home is down just

over 40% in Dublin and just over 45% in Mayo.

Second, it is also clear how different the trend in prices in South County Dublin (the solid lines)

has been from the trend in Mayo, since early 2012. Put another way, the gap between Dublin

prices and those elsewhere is growing. In 2007, at the height of the bubble, a 4-bedroom

detached home in South County Dublin was 3.2 times the prices of the same property in Mayo.

That ratio fell to 2.6 by early 2012 but has since risen – and risen rapidly – to 3.5. Similarly, the

price of a 1-bed apartment in South County Dublin was between 2 and 2.5 times one in Mayo

throughout the end of the bubble and first years of the crash. In the last 12 months, though, the

ratio has increased from 2.2 to 2.8.

This has huge implications for the Government. If prices were still falling, a widening differential

would signify that first-time buyers are no longer prepared to sprawl and pay the opportunity

and petrol costs of long commutes. But with prices actually rising again and only in certain

parts of the country, this may be a signal that not only is this the case, but that also there are

not enough properties in Dublin for them. If areas close to jobs and other amenities need new

homes, hoping that even more sprawl will solve the problem is not a viable option. Density

works well elsewhere – it can work in Ireland too.

Year-on-year change in asking prices, Q1 2013

5 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2013 Q1

€177,040 | Change: -8.1%

€134,268 | Change: -9.8%Galway€137,089 | Change: -16.1%

Sligo€126,608 | Change: -13.2%

€97,756 | Change: -16.4%

€139,785 | Change: -13.1%

€119,139 | Change: -17.0%

€114,641 | Change: -5.5%

Kerry€155,117 | Change: -10.4%

€141,674 | Change: -8.6%

Cork€161,471 | Change: -8.9%

Waterford

Meath€168,190 x| Change: -9.2%

Cork City€167,595 | Change: -9.8%

Laois€93,377 | Change: -20.4%

O�aly€128,720 | Change: -11.0%

Limerick€153,269 | Change: -8.2%

Kilkenny€143,259 | Change: -6.8%

Waterford City€109,741 | Change: -14.6%

Galway City€159,762 | Change: -10.7%

Mayo€126,474 | Change: -17.1%

Donegal€126,327 | Change: -12.0%

Roscommon€102,023 | Change: -16.5%

Limerick City€136,567 | Change: -12.9%

Clare€142,757 | Change: -11.8%

Wicklow€225,674 | Change: -4.7%

Louth€155,266 | Change: -10.0%

Dublin City Centre€185,265 | Change: 1.8%

West Dublin County€162,367 | Change: -6.4%

North Dublin CountyDublinClose-up

€203,671 | Change: -5.0%

South Dublin County€344,988 | Change: 6.1%

North Dublin City€217,604 | Change: -0.2%

South Dublin City€238,305| Change: 1.3%

Wexford€133,133 | Change: -7.8%

Carlow€130,538 | Change: -15.3%

Kildare

Westmeath

Leitrim

Monaghan

Cavan

Longford

Tipperary

€163,061 | Change: -11.2%

The Daft.ie Asking Price Index is based on asking prices for properties posted for sale on Daft.ie. An index based on asking price, as opposed to closing price, is a measure of sellers’ expectations. Figures are calculated from econometric regressions, which calculate changes in price that are independent of changes in observable measures of quality, such as location, or bedroom number.

Daft.ie Asking Price Index

-6.6% Asking prices in the first quarter of 2013 were 6.6% lower than a year previously. The national average asking price for the period was €171,000, 54.7% below its peak of €378,000.

6 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2013 Q1

Slowest fall in prices since 2008 The 6.6% annual fall in prices is the slowest rate of decline since the second quarter of 2008, when prices were declining by 5.7% year-on-year. A year ago, prices were declining at a rate of 17.7% per year.

Prices stable in DublinAsking prices in the capital in the first quarter of 2013 were actually 0.5% higher than a year previously, the first time since early 2007 this has been the case.

Stock on market back to late-2007 levelsThere are currently 43,000 properties actively for sale in the country. This is down almost one third from 63,000 in late 2008 but still twice the level of early 2007.

Two in five properties sells in 4 months Nationwide, 39% of properties currently find a buyer within four months, the same proportion as in late 2012 and up from 33% a year ago.

Stock of properties on Daft.ieStock of properties on Daft.ie (start of month) and flow of properties, 2007-2013

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2007 II III IV 2008 II III IV 2009 II III IV 2010 II III IV 2011 II III IV 2012 II III IV 2013

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

■ Stock ■ Flow

Asking Prices, Residential Sales(2012 average = 100)

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

2006

183.7

198.6

196.5

201.8

204.1

205.3

207.6

208.7

212.1

212.9

211.2

213.4

2007

212.7

214.6

212.9

213.5

214.8

214.2

214.4

213.1

211.3

210.6

208.9

209.7

2008

209.0

208.1

205.6

204.2

202.1

199.3

197.6

194.8

193.1

189.5

183.5

182.3

2009

180.2

176.6

172.8

171.4

167.9

164.6

162.4

158.5

156.5

154.2

150.5

148.6

2010

149.3

148.0

144.7

144.4

142.7

139.9

136.7

136.6

135.2

132.2

129.2

128.4

2011

127.2

127.1

124.5

121.4

119.9

115.8

115.4

113.6

113.5

108.3

106.0

105.4

2012

105.3

104.2

102.4

101.8

102.3

99.6

98.0

99.0

97.1

98.4

96.0

95.9

2013

97.3

96.8

97.2

The Daft.ie Price Register Index is based on prices for residential properties recorded on propertypriceregister.ie, for which matches were found in the daft.ie archives. Because these are entered with a lag by solicitors, figures for previous quarters are subject to revision. Figures are calculated from econometric regressions, which calculate changes in price that are independent of changes in observable measures of quality, such as location, type, or size.

Daft.ie Price Register Index

-6.5%An analysis of the Property Price Register shows that transaction prices in early 2013 were 6.5% lower than a year previously. The average transaction price nationwide for the period was €143,000.

7 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2013 Q1

Transaction Prices, Residential Sales(2012 average = 100)

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

2010

151.8

145.5

145.0

146.2

137.9

142.6

139.1

138.1

133.6

130.2

134.4

133.9

2011

132.0

127.8

120.9

122.0

117.0

115.8

119.6

114.0

111.9

108.0

108.4

108.3

2012

100.0

99.9

102.5

102.3

98.3

97.4

101.8

99.5

101.7

98.0

98.0

100.6

2013

93.2

95.7

94.0

Number of residential property transactions, by quarterSource: propertypriceregister.ie

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2010 II III IV 2011 II III IV 2012 II III IV 2013

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Prices falls ease The annual fall in prices in early 2013 was the smallest since the start of 2011, the earliest point from which comparisons are available.

Urban areas closest to stable The fall in prices in urban areas was significantly smaller than elsewhere in the country. In Dublin, prices were down 2.4% annually, while in other cities, prices were down by 3.7%.

Transactions up 40% on 2011 The final figures on the number of transactions in 2012 indicate annual growth in transactions of 38% on 2011 levels and up 19% on 2010 levels.

Daft.ie Snapshot of Asking Prices Nationwide

What can I ask for? Can I afford it?Average house prices across Ireland, by county and bedroom number, Quarter 1 2013

8 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2013 Q1

Daft.ie Snapshot of Asking Prices Nationwide

DublinCity Centre

North City

South City

North County

South County

West County

Meath

Kildare

Wicklow

Longford

Offaly

Westmeath

Laois

Louth

Carlow

Kilkenny

Wexford

Co. Waterford

Waterford City

Kerry

Co. Cork

Cork City

Clare

Co. Limerick

Limerick City

Tipperary

Co. Galway

Galway City

Mayo

Roscommon

Sligo

Leitrim

Donegal

Cavan

Monaghan

€116,575

€105,596

€118,216

€94,707

€157,079

€76,478

€60,309

€66,301

€83,419

€43,194

€47,996

€48,197

€33,701

€54,767

€47,633

€51,293

€46,804

€61,496

€48,499

€58,447

€61,721

€74,911

€53,808

€56,143

€60,640

€54,477

€56,144

€67,093

€55,622

€43,547

€57,182

€43,495

€53,948

€49,093

€58,359

€175,331

€158,818

€177,799

€142,440

€236,249

€115,024

€80,685

€88,702

€111,604

€57,788

€64,211

€64,481

€45,087

€73,271

€63,726

€68,623

€62,618

€72,426

€60,008

€68,835

€72,691

€92,688

€63,372

€66,121

€75,030

€64,159

€57,697

€83,015

€57,161

€44,752

€58,764

€44,698

€55,441

€50,452

€59,974

€254,661

€230,677

€258,245

€206,889

€343,143

€167,068

€109,226

€120,079

€151,082

€78,230

€86,925

€87,290

€61,036

€99,189

€86,268

€92,898

€84,768

€104,122

€94,163

€98,960

€104,504

€145,444

€91,105

€95,058

€117,736

€92,238

€86,680

€130,264

€85,875

€67,232

€88,284

€67,152

€83,291

€75,795

€90,100

€411,509

€372,754

€417,301

€334,314

€554,488

€269,967

€222,700

€244,827

€308,040

€159,502

€177,231

€177,974

€124,445

€202,236

€175,892

€189,408

€172,832

€208,608

€156,672

€198,266

€209,372

€241,996

€182,529

€190,448

€195,893

€184,797

€162,405

€216,740

€160,897

€125,967

€165,410

€125,817

€156,056

€142,011

€168,8145

€526,730

€477,123

€534,144

€427,921

€709,742

€345,557

€278,978

€306,696

€385,883

€199,809

€222,019

€222,950

€155,893

€253,343

€220,341

€237,273

€216,508

€243,104

€214,751

€231,051

€243,995

€331,704

€212,712

€221,941

€268,512

€215,356

€184,505

€297,086

€182,791

€143,108

€187,919

€142,938

€177,291

€161,336

€191,785

Leinster

Munster

Connaught

Ulster

1-bedapartment

2-bedterraced

3-bedsemi-d

4-bedbungalow

5-beddetached

North County DublinAverage price: €203,671Year on year change: -5.0%From peak: -53.5%

Dublin City CentreAverage price: €185,265Year on year change: 1.8%From peak: -56.8%

North Dublin CityAverage price: €217,604Year on year change: -0.2%From peak: -55.4%

South Dublin CityAverage price: €238,305Year on year change: 1.3%From peak: -55.3%South County Dublin

Average price: €344,988Year on year change: 6.1%From peak: -51.6%

West County DublinAverage price: €162,367Year on year change: -6.4%From peak: -57.4%

9 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2011 in review

Dublin TrendsAn analysis of recent trends in the Dublin residential sales market

■ Dublin City Centre ■ North Dublin City ■ South Dublin City ■ North County Dublin ■ South County Dublin ■ West County Dublin

€100,000

€200,000

€300,000

€400,000

€500,000

€600,000

€700,000

€800,000

How have house prices changed?Average house price by area, 2006-2013

2007 II III IV 2008 II III IV 2009 II III IV 2010 II III IV 2011 II III IV 2012 II III IV 2013

■ One year ago ■ Previous quarter ■ Current quarter

How fast are properties selling?Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, 2011 - 2013

How many properties are on the market?Number of properties on the market and newly advertised, 2007-2013

2007 II III IV 2008 II III IV 2009 II III IV 2010 II III IV 2011 II III IV 2012 II III IV 2013

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

■ Stock (LHS) ■ Inflow (RHS)

0%

% o

f pro

per

ties

so

ld o

r sal

e ag

reed

Within 2 mths Within 4 mths Within 6 mths Within 12 mths

n In Dublin, asking prices in early 2013 were 0.5% higher than a year previously, the first time since early 2007 prices rose in year-on-year terms.

n According to an analysis of Property Price Register entries, transaction prices in Dublin in early 2013 were 2.4% lower than a year previously, compared to a fall of 18.4% in early 2012.

n In the capital, 55% of properties currently find a buyer within four months, down slightly from 63% in late 2012 but up from 42% a year ago.

n The final figures on the number of transactions in Dublin in 2012 indicate annual growth in transactions of 52% on 2011 levels and up 26% on 2010 levels.

10 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2013 Q1

KildareAverage price: €177,040Year on year change: -8.1%From peak: -55.3%

CarlowAverage price: €130,538Year on year change: -15.3%From peak: -52.2%

LouthAverage price: €155,266Year on year change: -10.0%From peak: -59.4%

MeathAverage price: €168,190Year on year change: -9.2%From peak: -57.2%

WicklowAverage price: €225,674Year on year change: -4.7%From peak: -53.9%

WexfordAverage price: €133,133Year on year change: -7.8%From peak: -58.9%

LongfordAverage price: €114,641Year on year change: -5.5%From peak: -59.5%

WestmeathAverage price: €134,268Year on year change: -9.8%From peak: -57.4%

O�alyAverage price: €128,720Year on year change: -11.0%From peak: -56.5%

LaoisAverage price: €93,377Year on year change: -20.4%From peak: -61.7%

KilkennyAverage price: €143,259Year on year change: -6.8%From peak: -55.4%

Leinster TrendsAn analysis of recent trends in the Leinster residential sales market

■ Meath ■ Kildare ■ Wicklow ■ Louth ■ Laois ■ Westmeath ■ O�aly ■ Longford ■ Carlow ■ Kilkenny ■ Wexford

How have house prices changed?Average house price by area, 2006-2013

2007 II III IV 2008 II III IV 2009 II III IV 2010 II III IV 2011 II III IV 2012 II III IV 2013

How many properties are on the market?Number of properties on the market and newly advertised, 2007-2013

2007 II III IV 2008 II III IV 2009 II III IV 2010 II III IV 2011 II III IV 2012 II III IV 2013

€100,000

€150,000

€200,000

€250,000

€300,000

€350,000

€400,000

€450,000

■ Stock (LHS) ■ Inflow (RHS)

€500,000

€50,000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

3200

3600

4000

■ One year ago ■ Previous quarter ■ Current quarter

How fast are properties selling?Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, 2011 - 2013

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0% % o

f pro

per

ties

so

ld o

r sal

e ag

reed

Within 2 mths Within 4 mths Within 6 mths Within 12 mths

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

n Asking prices in Leinster in early 2013 were 8.5% lower than year previously, compared to an annual fall of 16.5% in early 2012. This is the slowest rate of price falls since mid-2008.

n According to an analysis of Property Price Register entries, transaction prices in Leinster in early 2013 were 9.6% lower than a year previously, compared to a fall of 18.9% in early 2012.

n Across the province, 37% of properties currently find a buyer within four months, down slightly from 40% in late 2012 and largely the same as a year ago (36%).

n The final figures on the number of transactions in Leinster in 2012 indicate annual growth in transactions of 38% on 2011 levels and up 13% on 2010 levels.

11 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2013 Q1

TipperaryAverage price: €141,674Year on year change: -8.6%From peak: -49.1%

Limerick CityAverage price: €136,567Year on year change: -12.9%From peak: -48.6%

Waterford CountyAverage price: €163,061Year on year change: -11.2%From peak: -53.1%

ClareAverage price: €142,757Year on year change: -11.8%From peak: -53.8%

Limerick CountyAverage price: €153,269Year on year change: -8.2%From peak: -46.2%

KerryAverage price: €155,117Year on year change: -10.4%From peak: -49.7%

Cork CountyAverage price: €161,471Year on year change: -8.9%From peak: -55.1%

Cork CityAverage price: €167,595Year on year change: -9.8%From peak: -55.3%

Waterford CityAverage price: €109,741Year on year change: -14.6%From peak: -60.8%

Munster TrendsAn analysis of recent trends in the Leinster residential sales market

How have house prices changed?Average house price by area, 2006-2013

2007 II III IV 2008 II III IV 2009 II III IV 2010 II III IV 2011 II III IV 2012 II III IV 2013

How fast are properties selling?Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, 2011 - 2013

How many properties are on the market?Number of properties on the market and newly advertised, 2007-2013

2007 II III IV 2008 II III IV 2009 II III IV 2010 II III IV 2011 II III IV 2012 II III IV 2013

5%

10%

20%

30%

40%

€50,000

€100,000

€150,000

€200,000

€250,000

€300,000

€350,000

€400,000

■ Stock (LHS) ■ In�ow (RHS)

% o

f pro

per

ties

so

ld o

r sal

e ag

reed

■ One year ago ■ Previous quarter ■ Current quarter

0%

15%

25%

35%

45%

0

2000

12000

14000

16000

18000

4000

6000

8000

10000

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0

20000

■ Waterford County ■ Kerry ■ Cork County ■ Clare ■ Limerick County ■ Tipperary ■ Cork City ■ Limerick City ■ Waterford City

Within 2 mths Within 4 mths Within 6 mths Within 12 mths

n Asking prices in Munster in early 2013 were 9.5% lower than year previously, compared to an annual fall of 15.9% in early 2012. This is the slowest rate of price falls since mid-2008.

n According to an analysis of Property Price Register entries, transaction prices in Munster in early 2013 were 11.1% lower than a year previously, compared to a fall of 21.3% in early 2012.

n Across the province, 33% of properties currently find a buyer within four months, roughly the same as in late 2012 (32%) and up from 28% a year ago.

n The final figures on the number of transactions in Munster in 2012 indicate annual growth in transactions of 26% on 2011 levels and up 16% on 2010 levels.

12 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2013 Q1

LeitrimAverage price: €97,756Year on year change: -16.4%From peak: -61.0%

CavanAverage price: €119,139Year on year change: -17.0%From peak: -58.9%

MonaghanAverage price: €139,785Year on year change: -13.1%From peak: -56.5%

RoscommonAverage price: €102,023Year on year change: -16.5%From peak: -59.4%

MayoAverage price: €126,474Year on year change: -17.1%From peak: -52.1%

DonegalAverage price: €126,327Year on year change: -12.0%From peak: -53.1%

Galway City

GalwayAverage price: €137,089Year on year change: -16.1%From peak: -57.6%

SligoAverage price: €126,608Year on year change: -13.2%From peak: -55.3%

How have house prices changed?Average house price by area, 2006-2013

2007 II III IV 2008 II III IV 2009 II III IV 2010 II III IV 2011 II III IV 2012 II III IV 2013

How fast are properties selling?Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, 2011 - 2013

How many properties are on the market?Number of properties on the market and newly advertised, 2007-2013

2007 II III IV 2008 II III IV 2009 II III IV 2010 II III IV 2011 II III IV 2012 II III IV 2013

€50,000

€100,000

€150,000

€200,000

€250,000

€300,000

€350,000

€400,000

■ Stock (LHS) ■ In�ow (RHS)

0

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0

■ Galway County ■ Mayo ■ Roscommon ■ Sligo ■ Leitrim ■ Donegal ■ Cavan ■ Monaghan ■ Galway City

■ One year ago ■ Previous quarter ■ Current quarter

Within 2 mths Within 4 mths Within 6 mths Within 12 mths

Connacht & Ulster TrendsAn analysis of recent trends in the Leinster residential sales market

n Asking prices in Connacht-Ulster in early 2013 were 15% lower than year previously, compared to an annual fall of 16.7% in early 2012

n According to an analysis of Property Price Register entries, transaction prices in Connacht-Ulster in early 2013 were 7% lower than a year previously, compared to a fall of 28% in early 2012.

n Across the region, 31% of properties currently find a buyer within four months, up from roughly one in four throughout 2012.

n The final figures on the number of transactions in Leinster in 2012 indicate annual growth in transactions of 27% on 2011 levels and up 17% on 2010 levels.

About the Report

Over the last 10 years, Daft.ie has collected a vast amount of data on the Irish property market. In 2011 alone, over 100,000 properties for sale were advertised on the site.

About the ReportThe goal of the Daft Report is to use this information to help all actors in the property

market make informed decisions about buying and selling. In addition, because it is

freely available, the Daft Report can help inform the media, the general public and

policymakers about the latest developments in the property market.

This is the Daft.ie House Price Report, the partner to the Daft.ie Rental Report, which will be

issued next month. Together, they give house-hunters and investors more information to help

them make their decisions. These twin reports mean that Daft is the only objective monitor

of trends in both rental and sales markets on a quarterly basis, making the report an

essential barometer for anyone with an interest in the Irish property market.

The Daft Report is now almost ten years old and has become the definitive barometer

of the Irish residential property market. It is being used by the Central Bank, mortgage

institutions, and by financial analysts at home and abroad, as well as by the general public.

Methodology and Sample SizeThe statistics are based on properties advertised on Daft.ie for a given period.

The regressions used are hedonic price regressions, accounting for all available and

measurable attributes of properties and only coefficients with a very high degree of

statistical significance (p < 0.001) are used.

The average quarterly sample size for sales over the period 2006-2011 was over 34,000. Indices

are based on standard methods, holding the mix of characteristics constant, with the annual

average of 2012 used as the base. A working paper on the methodologies employed in

both rental and sales markets will be published on the Daft.ie website soon.

Stock and flow statistics are calculated using consistent series for the period covered.

About Daft.ie

Daft.ie is Ireland’s largest property

website. The latest audited report

from ABC (Sep 2011) shows

monthly traffic of 130 million page

impressions (pages of information

received) and 1.976 million unique

users per month across Daft

Media’s property websites (daft.ie,

rent.ie, let.ie, property.ie).

This makes Daft.ie the biggest

property website in Ireland across

all demographics.

13 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2013 Q1

DisclaimerThe Daft.ie Report is prepared

from information that we believe

is collated with care, but we do not

make any statement as to its accuracy

or completeness. We reserve the right

to vary our methodology and to edit

or discontinue the indices, snapshots

or analysis at any time for regulatory

or other reasons. Persons seeking to

place reliance on any information

contained in this report for their own

or third party commercial purposes

do so at their own risk.

CreditsEconomic Analysis:

Ronan LyonsLayout and Design:

Ciara Mulvany, Derek Jones, Flavour 9 DesignData Compilation:

Paul Conroy, Alvis DuongMarketing:

Kieran Harte

All data is Copyright © Daft Media

Limited. The information contained in

this report may only be reproduced if

the source is clearly credited.

Please contact Daft.ie on 01-4218700

for further information.

Coming Next…

The Daft.ie Rental Report 2013 Q2 The Daft.ie Rental Report will be published in May and will include

a review of the performance of Ireland’s rental market for the first few months

of 2013, plus all the usual indices, snapshots, trends and rental yield analysis,

providing analysts, tenants, landlords and the public with the most up-to-date

information on Ireland’s rental market.