Nfhk2011 rune elvik_parallel23

21/12/2011 © Institute of Transport Economics

Knowledge as a basis for successful

injury prevention: The Handbook of

Road Safety Measures

10:e Nordiska Folkhälsokonferensen – session om

Folkhälsoekonomi, 26.8.2011, 1030-1200

Rune Elvik, Transportøkonomisk institutt ([email protected])


Preventing traffic injury – a success

The number of people killed in road accidents has been

dramatically reduced in many highly motorised countries

the past 40 years

This success is partly attributable to long-term research

and the systematic accumulation of knowledge by means

of meta-analyses

The history of The Handbook of Road Safety Measures,

developed in Norway, illustrates this process

Knowledge summarised in this book has provided key

input to several road safety policy analyses in Norway

These analyses show that there are many cost-effective

road safety measures


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84

124 124128

139

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

First edition (1982) Second edition (1989) Third edition (1997) First English edition (2004)

Second English edition (2009)

Forthcoming fourth edition (2012)

Number of road safety measures included in The Handbook of Road Safety Measures


350291 320

483

609

857 852

1170

2186

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Number of pages in selected volumes of Accident Analysis and Prevention

Areas covered by the Handbook of

Road Safety Measures

1. Road design

2. Road maintenance

3. Traffic control

4. Vehicle design and protective devices

5. Vehicle and garage inspection

6. Driver training and regulation of professional driving

7. Public education and information campaigns

8. Police enforcement and sanctions

9. Post accident care

10.General purpose policy instruments



30220000

22930000

8140000

614000

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

Prevention of a fatality Prevention of a critical injury Prevention of a serious injury Prevention of a slight injury

Am

ou

nt

in N

OK

(2

009-

pri

ces)

Injury severity

Monetary valuation of the prevention of traffic injury in Norway (NOK 2009-prices)

Impacts included in cost-benefit

analyses Travel time savings and unforeseen delays (very detailed)

Prevention of traffic injury

Prevention of health loss caused by air pollution

Prevention of global warming

Prevention of traffic noise

Reducing anxiety for unprotected road users in mixed traffic

Reducing anciety for landslides

Gains for public health by increased walking and cycling

Costs of implementing a measure



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f fat

alit

ies

per

yea

r

Traffic fatalities in Norway 1940-2010

Highest on record: 1970 = 560

208 in 2010 = lowest since 1954

Benefits from optimal use of road

safety measures in Norway

Optimal use = using a measure up to the point where

marginal benefits equal marginal costs

Optimal use will maximise the net present value of each

measure (net present value = discounted value of benefits

minus costs)

Optimal use is found by performing an incremental analysis

of costs and benefits of each road safety measure

This analysis is based on a ”utility function” for the use of

each measure (i.e. it is first introduced where benefits are

greatest, then second greatest, then third greatest, etc)



0.00

0.50

1.00

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2.00

2.50

3.00

0500010000150002000025000300003500040000

Ma

rgin

al b

en

efi

t-co

st r

ati

o

Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)

Marginal benefit-cost ratio for pedestrian bridge or tunnel by motor vehicle traffic volume

Break-even point


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1000

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4000

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6000

7000

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0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

Be

ne

fits

(NO

K m

illi

on

)

Costs (NOK million)

Benefits and costs of building pedestrian bridges or tunnels

Marginal benefits = marginal costs

Most cost-effective project

Least cost-effective project

Benefits = 4043; Costs = 3239

Cost-effective road safety measures

in Norway (selection) Measure Fatalities

prevented

Net present

value

Intelligent speed adaptation 34 7798 (1.80)

3.5 times more speed enforcement 21 855 (3.28)

4 times more random breath testing 16 716 (4.62)

Seat belt reminders in all cars (now 58%) 10 3952 (7.93)

Front impact protection on heavy vehicles 7 1560 (2.52)

E-call (electronic accident notification) 3 345 (1.54)

Enhanced neck injury protection in all cars (now 27%) 3 2171 (4.91)

Upgrading pedestrian crossings 3 1646 (2.39)

New road lighting (on currently unlit roads) 2 725 (1.92)

Guardrails along roadside 1 301 (1.80)


Discussion

A few road safety measures can contribute to a fairly large

reduction of the number of road accident fatalities

Many more measures each contribute to a small reduction

of the number of fatalities

Vehicle-related measures appear to have the largest

potential for improving safety

Increasing police enforcement can also contribute

importantly

National governments have few instruments for influencing

vehicle manufacturers

Drastically more police enforcement is unlikely


Concluding remarks

Large gains in welfare can be attained by reducing traffic

injury

In monetary terms, these gains in welfare exceed the

costs of implementing the measures roughly up to the

point of reducing fatalities by 50 percent

Vision Zero for traffic fatalities states that we should not

settle for a 50 percent reduction in fatalities, but should

aim for 100 percent

At the current monetary valuation of safety, that would

imply the use of road safety measures far beyond the

point that is optimal in economic terms


Nfhk2011 rune elvik_parallel23

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