Mælkevejen og Jordens klima Henrik Svensmark, Dansk Rumforskningsinstitut Email [email protected]...
-
Upload
abigail-sawyer -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
2
Transcript of Mælkevejen og Jordens klima Henrik Svensmark, Dansk Rumforskningsinstitut Email [email protected]...
Mælkevejen og Jordens klimaHenrik Svensmark, Dansk Rumforskningsinstitut
Email [email protected]
Københavns Universitet, 2002
Satellite Failures due to Space Weather Effects
• Anomalies due to spacecraft surface and internal charging (Marecs, ECS, Meteosat, TELE-X,…..)
• Latch-up induced failures (ESR-1, PRARE, Equator-S,
…..)
• SEU’s in linear circuits…(Anik 1 &2)
• Solar Array problems/degradation (Tempo, PanAm, ECS,….)
More recent satellite failures:
• Telestar 401– TV links etc..
• Galaxy IV– silenced 80% of pagers in North America
More than 12 satellites lost due to Space Weather More than 12 satellites lost due to Space Weather Effects Effects
Last 4 years space losses may have Last 4 years space losses may have exceeded $500 millionexceeded $500 million
Commercial interests often do not allow anomaly reporting.
Damage to transformers
Damage to a transformer at a power plant Delaware, New Jersey
Price: 10 mill USD
Repair can take up to 1 year.
In this particular case they were lucky to find a used one from a shut down plant. Took only 6 weeks to restore
Sweden: simultaneous power loss in six 130 kV power distribution lines
Chicago: Five transformers in the Chicago area failed due to elevated geomagnetic activity
New Particle formation: Observations and Theory
•Observed nucleation rates are much larger than predicted by classical binary (H2SO4+H2O) nucleation theory
•The functional dependence of the observed nucleation rate of [H2SO4] is much weaker (~ [H2SO4]2 )than predicted by classical binary (H2SO4+H2O) nucleation theory (~ [H2SO4]10 )
•Measured growth rates of freshly formed nanoparticles are about a factor of 10 higher than can be explained by H2SO4 and its associated H2O and NH3
r
G
r* rc ri
Micro-physics: Why in the lower part of the atmosphere?
: Time to grow from rc to r*
sek
Ion-pair/cc/sek
400 300 200 100
0 0 5 10
~ 200 sek for [H2SO4] = 2.5 107 pr cc
enhanced aerosol formation caused by ionisation
Vohra et al., Atmos. Environment, 18, 1653 (1984)
N2:O2 = 4:1
SO2 = 300 ppb
C2H4 = 100 ppb
O3 = 160 ppb
Artificial air
Natural level of ionisation
Experimental evidence of
Cosmic ray variations ionisation and aerosol formation
Based on Numerical studies by Yu, 2001
CLOUD experimenet ved CERN
Solaktivitet og Klima Kulstof-14 fra træ-ringe
Cosmic Ray - Low Cloud Top Temperature
Marsh and Svensmark, PRL 2000
Correlation only found in low clouds
IR Cloud properties and Cosmic rays
Little Ice age (~ 1300-1800)
Documented in Europe Greenland Sargasso Sea Peru East Africa Japan Caribbean Sea West Africa Taiwan and China South Africa USA Argentina
Ice-ages and spiral arms
One revolution take about 240 Mill years
Spiral arm crossings every 140 Mill years
Cosmic ray flux is larger in spiral arms
Ice-ages and spiral arms
Nir Shaviv, PRL 2002