Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 23 may 2013

DAILY I FOREX REPORT

23RD

MAY 2013

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US Dollar At Risk Before Bernanke Testimony, FOMC Minutes

GBP/USD Slumps Under $1.5100 as April Retail Sales Underwhelm

THE TAKEAWAY: GBP Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (APR) > -1.4% versus +0.1% expected, from -0.7% (revised higher from -0.8%) (m/m), +0.2% versus +1.8% expected, from +0.4% (y/y) > Retail Sales w/ Auto Fuel (APR) > -1.3% versus +0.1% expected, from -0.6% (revised higher from -0.7%) (m/m), +0.5% versus +2.0% expected, from -0.5% (y/y) > Bank of England May meeting Minutes show split MPC over more QE > GBPUSD BEARISH

Despite a strong 1Q‟13 GDP report, it appears that the British economy is losing steam, in thanks to a slowdown in consumption trends. According to the Office for National Statistics, the slowdown in Retail Sales can be wholly attributed to a slump in food prices in the early-2Q, exacerbated by what‟s being described as „poor weather.‟ Regardless, in light of disinflating price pressures (per the April CPI report), the slowdown in sales can be viewed as a shift towards slower growth once more.

Concurrently, the Bank of England releases the Minutes from its May meeting as well earlier, noting the Monetary Policy Committee‟s concern for inflation (per the majority‟s perspective, as outgoing Governor Mervyn King was outvoted once more, 6-3). “There was tentative evidence that measures of medium-term inflation expectations were becoming more sensitive to short- term news in inflation...Financial markets were not expecting further asset purchases at this meeting and might, at the margin, reassess the committee‟s tolerance of elevated inflation should additional stimulus be injected.” If inflation continues to fall, incoming BoE Governor Mark Carney may be forced to implement additional policy measures, which would be GBP-negative.

TRADING TIPS

SELL EURUSD BELOW

1.2900 TGT 1.2880/1.2860

SL 1.2930

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 103.00

TGT 103.20/103.50 SL

102.70

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5070 TGT 1.5020/1.5000

SL 1.5100

HEADLINES


HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.2920 EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

HIGH: 1.2945 TREND: BEARISH

LOW: 1.2903 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

CLOSE: 1.2939 MACD =>-.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 68(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 102.43 USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

HIGH: 102.99 TREND: BULLISH

LOW: 102.35 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CLOSE: 102.85 MACD =>.04(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 62(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5160 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

HIGH: 1.5174 TREND: BEARISH

LOW: 1.5074 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

CLOSE: 1.5101 MACD =>-.00013(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 31(BEARISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 00.8522 EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD





HOURLY USD INDEX CHART


ANALYSIS

OPEN: 83.7790 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD






Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun May 19

22:30

NZD Performance Services Index (APR)

Medium 56.1

55.6

23:01

GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (MAY)

Low 2.1%

2.1%

23:01

GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (MAY)

Low 2.5%

0.4%

Mon May 20

JPY Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report for May

Medium

04:00

JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (APR)

Low -2.8%

48.4%

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (MAR F)

Low 93.8

93.3

05:00

JPY Leading Index (MAR F)

Medium 97.9

97.6

05:30

JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (APR)

Low -0.5%

3.9%

05:30

JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (APR)

Low 2.1%

6.4%

06:00

JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR F)

Medium -23.6%

-24.1%

07:00

JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (APR)

Low -2.6%

-0.4%

12:30

USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (APR)

Medium -0.53

-0.23

17:00

USD Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy in Chicago

Low

Tue

May 21 00:00

AUD Conference Board Leading Index (MAR)

Medium 0.1%

0.3%

01:30

AUD RBA Policy Meeting - May Minutes

High

03:00

NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectation (2Q)

Medium 2.06%

2.17%

03:00

NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (APR)

Medium 0.4%

-0.3%

03:00

NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (APR)

Medium 4.0%

3.6%

04:30

JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

-0.4% 0.6%

05:00

JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (APR)

Low

1.7%

ECONOMIC CALLENDER

06:00

EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (APR)

Low

-0.1% -0.2%

06:00

EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (APR)

Low

0.1% 0.4%

07:00

CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (APR)

Low

9.9%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (APR)

Low

-1.3% -0.1%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (APR)

Low

0.3% 0.4%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.2% 0.3%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (APR)

Medium

1.4% 2.0%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.3% 0.1%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (APR)

Medium

0.9% 1.3%

08:30

GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (MAR)

Low

2.0% 1.9%

08:30

GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)

Medium

0.4% 0.3%

08:30

GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

High

2.6% 2.8%

08:30

GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

High

2.3% 2.4%

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (APR)

Low

249.9 248.7

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.5% 0.4%

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (APR)

Low

3.1% 3.3%

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (APR)

Low

3.0% 3.2%

15:30

USD Fed's Bullard Speaks on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt

Low

17:00

USD Fed's Dudley Speaks in New York

Low

22:45

NZD Net Migration s.a. (APR)

Low

1220

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (APR)

Medium

-¥637.3B -¥362.4B

23:50

JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade

Low

-¥605.8B -¥922.0B

Balance (Yen) (APR)

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (APR)

Low

5.5 1.1

Wed May 22

JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (MAY 22)

High

0.10% 0.10%

JPY BOJ Kuroda Press Conference After Policy Meeting

High

00:30

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAY)

Medium

-5.1%

00:30

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAY)

Low

104.9

01:00

AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.1%

04:00

JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement

Medium

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (MAR)

Low

16.3B

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (MAR)

Low

12.1B

08:30

GBP Bank of England Minutes

High

08:30

GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.1% -0.8%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (APR)

Medium

1.8% 0.4%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.1% -0.7%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (APR)

Medium

2.0% -0.5%

08:30

GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (APR)

Medium

-4.0B 31.3B

08:30

GBP PSNB ex Interventions (APR)

Medium

8.5B 15.1B

08:30

GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (APR)

Medium

8.8B 16.7B

10:00

GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (MAY)

Low

-17 -25

10:00

GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (MAY)

Low

5 8

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 17)

Low

-7.3%

12:30

CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

0.2% 0.8%

12:30

CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.2% 0.7%

14:00

USD Fed's Bernanke Testifies on Economic Outlook

High

14:00

USD Existing Home Sales (APR)

Low

4.99M 4.92M

14:00

USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (APR)

Medium

1.3% -0.6%

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 17)

Low

-624K

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY 17)

Low

575K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 17)

Low

2588K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 17)

Low

2300K

18:00

USD Fed Releases Minutes from Apr 30 - May 1 FOMC Meeting

High

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (APR)

Low

6.9 5.5

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 17)

Medium

¥186.4B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 17)

Medium

¥19.2B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 17)

Low

-¥413.5B

Thu May 23

01:00

AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAY)

Medium

2.20%

01:45

LIVE

CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (MAY)

Medium

50.4 50.4

05:00

JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for May (Table)

Medium

07:00

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY P)

Low

44.8 44.4

07:00

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY P)

Low

44.5 44.3

07:30

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY A)

Medium

48.5 48.1

07:30

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY

Medium

50.0 49.6

A)

08:00

LIVE

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY A)

Medium

47.0 46.7

08:00

LIVE

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY A)

Medium

47.2 47.0

08:00

LIVE

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAY A)

Medium

47.2 46.9

08:30

GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)

High

0.3% 0.3%

08:30

GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q P)

High

0.6% 0.6%

08:30

GBP Private Consumption (1Q P)

Low

0.3% 0.4%

08:30

GBP Government Spending (1Q P)

Low

0.2% 0.6%

08:30

GBP Gross Fixed Capital Formation (1Q P)

Low

0.3% -0.2%

08:30

GBP Exports (1Q P) Low

-1.0% -1.6%

08:30

GBP Imports (1Q P) Low

-0.9% -1.0%

08:30

GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ) (1Q P)

Low

-0.8%

08:30

GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) (1Q P)

Medium

0.8%

08:30

GBP Index of Services (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.1% 0.8%

08:30

GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (MAR)

Low

0.6% 0.1%

10:05

USD Fed's Bullard to Speak on Monetary Policy in London

Low

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 18)

Medium

346K 360K

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (MAY 17)

Low

3000K 3009K

12:58

USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (MAY)

Medium

52

13:00

USD House Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

0.80% 0.70%

13:00

USD House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (1Q)

Low

1.40%

14:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAY A)

Medium

-21.8 -22.3

14:00

USD New Home Sales (APR)

Low

425K 417K

14:00

USD New Home Sales (MoM) (APR)

Medium

1.90% 1.50%

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 17)

Low

99

15:00

USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (MAY)

Low

-5 -5

22:45

NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (APR)

Medium

480M 718M

22:45

NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (APR)

Low

4.06B 4.42B

22:45

NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (APR)

Low

3.60B 3.70B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 17)

Low

¥878.8B

Fri May 24

EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q F)

Medium

0.1% 0.1%

01:35

CNY MNI May Flash Business Sentiment Indicator

Low

02:55

JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speech at Nikkei Conference

Low

04:00

USD Revisions: New Home Sales

Low

06:00

EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q F)

High

-0.2% -0.2%

06:00

EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (1Q F)

High

-1.4% -1.4%

06:00

EUR German Domestic Demand (1Q)

Low

0.1% 0.2%

06:00

EUR German Exports (1Q)

Low

-0.6% -2.0%

06:00

EUR German Capital Investment (1Q)

Low

-0.7% -0.7%

06:00

EUR German Government Spending (1Q)

Low

0.3% 0.4%

06:00

EUR German Construction Investment (1Q)

Low

-1.2% -0.1%

06:00

EUR German Imports (1Q)

Low

-0.9% -0.6%

06:00

EUR German Private Consumption (1Q)

Low

0.3% 0.1%

06:00

EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUN) (JUN)

Medium

6.2 6.2

08:00

EUR German IFO - Business Climate (MAY)

Medium

104.4 104.4

08:00

EUR German IFO - Current Assessment (MAY)

Medium

107.2 107.2

08:00

EUR German IFO - Expectations (MAY)

Medium

101.6 101.6

08:30

GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (APR)

Medium

32800 31227

12:30

LIVE

USD Durable Goods Orders (APR)

High

1.7% -5.7%

12:30

USD Durables Ex Transportation (APR)

Medium

0.5% -1.4%

12:30

USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (APR)

Low

0.5% 0.2%

12:30

USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (APR)

Low

0.3%

22:45

NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (APR)

Medium

-380M -525M

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Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 23 may 2013

Economy & Finance

Transcript of Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 23 may 2013