CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics · Nov FebMay Aug 2015 2016 MENA Economic Growth Change in GDP...

CONSENSUS FORECAST

SUMMARY 3ALGERIA 15BAHRAIN 18EGYPT 21IRAN 28IRAQ 31ISRAEL 34JORDAN 45KUWAIT 48LEBANON 51MOROCCO 54OMAN 57QATAR 60SAUDI ARABIA 63TUNISIA 70UAE 73YEMEN 80NOTES 83

ContributorsARNE POHLMAN Chief EconomistARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of ResearchRICARDO ACEVES Senior EconomistRICARD TORNÉ Senior EconomistOLGA COSCODAN Economist

CARL KELLY EconomistTERESA KERSTING EconomistDIRINA MANÇELLARI EconomistANGELA BOUZANIS EconomistCECILIA SIMKIEVICH Economist

ROBERT HILL Economist ERIC DENIS Economist MIRIAM DOWD Editor

PUBLICATION DATE 14 April 2015FORECASTS COLLECTED 7 April - 13 April 2015

INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 13 April 2015 NEXT EDITION 12 May 2015

Middle East & North Africa April 2015

FOCUSECONOMICS Summary

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 2

April 2015

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and MENA

Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in % Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016World -4.2 -3.3 -2.9 -2.9 -2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

United States -6.7 -4.1 -2.8 -2.6 -2.7 -2.9 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.5Euro area -3.6 -2.9 -2.6 -2.3 -2.0 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.6China -1.6 -1.9 -1.8 -2.4 -2.5 2.5 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.3Japan -9.0 -9.1 -8.3 -6.9 -6.5 1.0 0.7 0.5 2.1 2.1MENA 4.6 1.9 -0.6 -6.3 -4.2 12.5 11.1 7.7 0.2 1.6

Algeria -4.4 -1.5 -4.1 -9.1 -8.4 5.9 0.4 -4.1 -9.0 -9.1Egypt -10.8 -13.7 -12.8 -11.0 -9.9 -4.0 -2.5 -0.9 -2.1 -2.9Iran -0.6 -0.9 -1.4 -2.2 -2.1 4.0 7.6 4.4 1.6 1.9Iraq 4.1 -5.9 -4.6 -9.0 -1.9 13.7 9.6 3.3 -5.4 -0.7Israel -3.9 -3.2 -2.8 -3.2 -2.8 0.8 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.3Jordan -8.3 -5.5 -2.3 -4.0 -3.8 -15.3 -10.3 -6.8 -4.4 -5.0Lebanon -8.6 -8.9 -8.2 -8.3 -8.2 -18.1 -23.1 -20.1 -14.3 -14.2Morocco -7.0 -5.5 -5.0 -4.1 -3.6 -9.8 -7.6 -6.2 -4.1 -3.6Tunisia -5.5 -6.8 -5.0 -5.0 -4.2 -8.2 -8.5 -8.9 -7.4 -6.8Yemen -5.4 -8.0 -7.3 -7.0 -6.7 -1.0 -4.3 -3.1 -3.6 -3.8GCC 13.4 8.8 3.8 -6.5 -3.8 24.5 20.7 15.7 2.6 4.7

Bahrain -2.0 -3.3 -4.9 -11.4 -9.0 7.3 7.8 6.3 -2.0 -0.4Kuwait 33.2 21.9 17.8 3.0 5.6 45.2 39.7 32.0 12.2 16.2Oman -0.3 0.9 -0.1 -11.0 -7.1 10.2 6.5 4.5 -8.6 -5.2Qatar 11.4 15.5 9.8 1.9 1.5 32.8 30.8 25.9 9.9 10.4Saudi Arabia 13.6 6.5 -1.4 -12.2 -8.6 22.4 17.8 13.1 -0.7 2.1UAE 8.9 6.5 5.4 -3.4 -1.0 18.7 16.3 10.9 3.2 3.6

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016World 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.5 2.9 2.7 3.0 2.5 2.9

United States 2.3 2.2 2.4 3.0 2.8 2.1 1.5 1.6 0.4 2.2Euro area -0.8 -0.4 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 1.2China 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.0 6.8 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.7 2.1Japan 1.8 1.6 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.0 0.4 2.7 0.8 1.0MENA 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.5 8.3 7.0 4.7 5.1 5.4

Algeria 3.3 2.8 4.1 2.9 2.9 8.9 3.3 2.9 4.5 4.5Egypt 2.2 2.1 2.1 4.0 4.3 7.1 9.5 10.1 10.0 9.3Iran -6.8 -1.9 2.2 2.0 2.9 30.2 35.5 15.9 16.7 15.4Iraq 10.3 4.2 -1.5 3.2 5.1 6.1 1.9 2.2 3.6 4.6Israel 3.0 3.2 2.8 3.0 3.3 1.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 1.6Jordan 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.5 4.8 2.9 2.4 3.4Lebanon 2.8 3.0 2.0 2.2 2.8 6.6 4.8 1.9 2.1 3.2Morocco 2.7 4.4 2.5 4.4 4.6 1.3 1.9 0.4 1.3 1.8Tunisia 4.8 2.5 2.6 3.6 4.0 5.1 5.8 4.9 4.8 4.5Yemen 2.2 3.9 2.1 1.9 3.7 9.9 11.0 8.6 10.7 8.5GCC 5.5 3.7 3.9 3.0 3.4 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1

Bahrain 3.5 5.3 4.5 2.3 2.9 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.7Kuwait 6.6 1.5 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4Oman 7.1 3.9 3.7 2.6 3.0 2.9 1.3 1.0 1.6 2.2Qatar 6.0 6.3 6.2 5.7 5.9 1.9 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.9Saudi Arabia 5.4 2.7 3.6 2.2 2.7 2.9 3.5 2.7 2.6 3.0UAE 4.7 5.2 4.1 3.5 3.8 0.7 1.1 2.3 2.7 3.0

Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, annual variation in %

-3

0

3

6

9

World United States Euro area China MENA GCC

2013 2014 2015 2016

0

2

4

6

8

World United States Euro area China MENA GCC

2013 2014 2015 2016



April 2015

SummaryREAL SECTOR | A successful deal between Iran and global powers could spur growth in the region After months of tug-of-war, representatives from Iran and the P5+1 group (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, plus Germany) reached an outline agreement on Iran’s nuclear program on 2 April. According to the deal, Iran is expected to significantly reduce its nuclear program and open its facilities to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors. In return, if the country sticks to the plan, the international community will lift the economic sanctions that have been crippling the Iranian economy for years. That said, the removal of the sanctions will likely be the main obstacle to reaching a comprehensive deal before the end of June deadline. The Iranian government wants the sanctions to be lifted upon signing the deal, while the P5+1 group foresees a gradual removal once the IAEA verifies that Iran has implemented the changes to its nuclear program.

A successful nuclear agreement between the parties and the subsequent normalization of relations would likely have far-reaching political and economic ramifications across the Middle East. If sanctions are lifted, international markets could be open again for Iranian oil exports and foreign investment could flow freely into the country, thereby boosting the potential growth of the region’s second largest economy.

Oil prices were broadly stable in recent weeks following the oil-price rally that occurred at the outset of the year. Oil prices were affected by a number of factors including, the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 group, the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen, economic data signaling better prospects for the global economy and a strong build-up of crude supply in the United States. That said, analysts warn that crude prices will likely remain at the current low level in the months to come as the global oil market is still heavily oversupplied.

OUTLOOK | MENA outlook deteriorates for eight consecutive month in AprilGrowth forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa region deteriorated for the eight consecutive period this month. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists cut their projections for the region by 0.1 percentage points over last month and now expect GDP to expand 3.0% in 2015. Deteriorating prospects mainly reflected downward revisions to 8 of the 16 countries surveyed, including regional powerhouses Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Panelists maintained their growth projections unchanged for Algeria, Israel, Morocco, Oman and Tunisia. Egypt,

Regional outlook deteriorates

0

2

4

6

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 162.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

2015 2016

MENAEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts

Note: GDP, real annual variation in %, Q1 2012 - Q4 2016.

Note: GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Change in GDP Growth Forecasts20162015

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2

Iraq

Qatar

GCC

MENA

UAE

Saudi Arabia

Iran

Algeria

Israel

Egypt

-0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3

Qatar

GCC

Saudi Arabia

UAE

Algeria

Israel

MENA

Egypt

Iraq

Iran

.

Note: Change between April 2015 and March 2015 in percentage points.



April 2015

Jordan and Lebanon saw their growth projections revised upward, as energy-importing countries are benefiting from the decline in oil prices. The region’s economy is expected to accelerate in 2016 to 3.5% growth, which is unchanged from the previous month’s estimate.

Downward revisions to the projections for oil-export countries continued to be behind the deterioration of the region’s outlook, as the current low oil price environment is cutting revenues and weakening growth in the region. Against this backdrop, panelists shaved off 0.3 percentage points from the outlook for Iraq and Qatar, while Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE saw milder downgrades. Moreover, Yemen experienced a sizeable cut to its economic outlook due to the ongoing military conflict between the Houthi rebels and regional powers.

SAUDI ARABIA | The Kingdom intervenes in Yemen to halt the Houthis’ advanceSaudi Arabia led other Sunni Arab states in launching airstrikes against neighboring Yemen on 25 March in an attempt to halt the advance of the Zaidi Shia rebels known as Houthis. The Kingdom has amassed 150,000 troops along its borders, which signals that a ground offensive may be imminent. If an all-out invasion does occur, there is a risk that it could evolve into a wider regional conflict since the Houthi rebels are supported by Shiite Iran, Saudi Arabia’s main rival for power in the Middle East. In the economic arena, growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector remained robust in Q1 despite the conflict in Yemen and the low oil price environment. The PMI rose to a six-month high in March and remained firmly entrenched in expansion territory.

Although low oil prices and declining government revenues are expected to weigh heavily on the Kingdom’s economy, Saudi Arabia’s sound fiscal position and a relatively-diversified economy shield the country against a sharp economic downturn. FocusEconomics panelists revised down their projection for 2015 by 0.1 percentage points and now expect the economy to expand 2.2% in 2015. Panelists foresee 2.7% growth in 2016. (see details on page 63) UAE | Growth in the non-energy sector maintains strong footing in Q1 Business activity in the UAE’s non-oil private-sector economy continued to improve in Q1. Although the PMI dropped to the lowest level in over a year in March, the index remains firmly rooted in strong expansionary territory. While the oil sector remains under pressure due to lower oil prices, the country is pursuing plans to reduce its reliance on natural resources. Recently, the Ministry of Economy announced that it is close to passing a law that will allow full foreign ownership of businesses in sectors that the government identifies as strategically important. Under the current regulations, foreign companies that want to hold full ownership must operate in the country’s free zones. Firms outside of the free zones have to be owned by local citizens. The law is expected to help improve the business environment and attract more foreign direct investment.

-6

0

6

12

2000 2004 2008 2012 20163.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5


2015 2016

United Arab EmiratesEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts

Note: GDP, real annual variation in %, 2000 - 2019.


0

2

4

6

8

10

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 162

3

4

5


2015 2016

Saudi ArabiaEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts





April 2015

The Emirates is less exposed to fluctuations in oil prices than its regional peers due to its diversified economy. However, the country’s exports are being negatively affected by a drop in demand from elsewhere in the Gulf. Our panel of analysts GDP to grow 3.5% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, our panel projects economic growth of 3.8%. (see details on page 73)

EGYPT | Sisi’s ambitious reform agenda is expected to boost growthThe Egyptian economy grew a notable 5.6% in the first half of FY 2015 as political stability returned and President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi launched an ambitious reform agenda. However, recent data show a loss of momentum in recent months. Industrial production contracted in January after having averaged growth of more than 20.0% in the prior six months. In March, the PMI increased, but remained in contraction territory. Despite the recent slowdown, hopes are high that Egypt will kick back into high gear as investment increases. Egypt secured more than USD 60 billion in financing during an economic conference in mid-March. This included USD 12.5 billion in aid from Gulf countries and more than USD 30 billion in large-scale investment projects. The government also announced plans for a new Dubai-style capital city, the development of which is worth up to USD 45 billion. Moody’s upgrading of Egypt’s rating from Caa1 to B3 on 7 April should further stoke both investor confidence and government plans to return to international bond markets in the coming months.

The economy is expected to continue making progress, although the execution and impact of investment deals is crucial. The FocusEconomics panel of analysts expect GDP to expand 4.0% in FY 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For FY 2016, the panel sees the economy growing 4.3%. (see details on page 21)

ISRAEL | Netanyahu in talks to form a new coalition governmentGDP growth for Q4 2014 came in at 6.8% according to more detailed data, which is a downward revision from the previous estimate of 7.2%. Nevertheless, the increase marked a significant improvement over the previous quarter’s weak growth of just 0.2%. More recent data, however, point to a deceleration of the economy at the outset of the year. In February, the Bank of Israel Composite State of the Economy Index deteriorated and exports recorded the deepest contraction in four months. In the political sphere, the right-wing Likud party led by incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came in first in the 17 March snap elections, winning 30 seats in the next Parliament. After being officially designated as PM, Netanyahu has until the first weeks of May to negotiate with the other parties to form a coalition.

Israel’s economic prospects remain positive. However, geopolitical conflicts in the region could pose a risk to the growth outlook going forward. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 3.0% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel sees GDP growth picking up to 3.3%. (see details on page 34)

0

2

4

6

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 162.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


2015 2016

IsraelEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts



0

2

4

6

8

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 163.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


2015 2016

EgyptEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts

Note: GDP, real annual variation in %, Q1 2012 - Q4 2016. (Q1=January-March).

Note: GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. Data refer to fiscal year (July-June).



April 2015

INFLATION | Inflation broadly stable in FebruaryAccording to preliminary data, inflation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region was broadly unchanged in February, reaching 4.8%, which was a tad above the 4.6% tallied in January. Weak global growth and low commodity prices—particularly for food and oil—are expected to keep inflationary pressures at bay in most of the MENA countries. The only notable exceptions will be Egypt, Iran and Yemen, which will all record inflation rates at or above 10.0% this year. FocusEconomics panelists see regional inflation averaging 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2016, inflation is seen rising to 5.4%.

Ricard Torné Senior Economist



April 2015

Population, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Population, millions. Sources: National statistical institutes.

GDP, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: GDP in current USD billions. Data for Egypt refer to fiscal year ending in June. Data for Iran refer to Iranian year ending in March.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Population, millions

GDP, USD billions

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

BahrainJordanYemenTunisia

LebanonOman

MoroccoKuwaitAlgeria

QatarIraq

IsraelEgyptUAEIran

Saudi ArabiaGCC

MENA

0 100 200 300 400

BahrainQatarOman

KuwaitLebanon

JordanIsraelUAE

TunisiaYemen

Saudi ArabiaMorocco

IraqAlgeria

GCCIran

EgyptMENA

0

100

200

300

400

MENA GCC Egypt Israel UAE Saudi Arabia

2013 2014 2015 2016

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000


2013 2014 2015 2016

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Algeria 37.9 38.7 39.5 40.2 40.9 41.6 42.3Bahrain 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3Egypt 83.7 85.4 87.1 88.8 90.6 92.4 94.3Iran 77.0 78.0 79.0 80.0 81.0 82.1 83.1Iraq 34.8 35.9 37.0 38.1 39.2 40.3 41.5Israel 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0Jordan 6.5 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.5Kuwait 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6Lebanon 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7Morocco 32.9 33.2 33.5 33.8 34.2 34.5 34.8Oman 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3Qatar 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8Saudi Arabia 30.0 30.6 31.2 31.9 32.5 33.1 33.8Tunisia 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.6UAE 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.7Yemen 26.7 27.5 28.3 29.1 30.0 30.8 31.6

MENA 372.4 379.9 387.4 395.1 402.7 410.3 418.0GCC 49.7 51.1 52.4 53.8 55.1 56.3 57.6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Algeria 208 220 214 227 244 263 284Bahrain 32.5 33.5 35.4 37.4 39.7 42.2 44.8Egypt 260 273 287 317 374 406 458Iran 367 437 458 518 587 668 755Iraq 230 232 248 269 293 321 353Israel 288 317 282 290 311 336 364Jordan 33.6 35.8 38.0 40.8 43.8 47.0 50.5Kuwait 175 184 188 200 211 225 244Lebanon 47.1 49.0 51.3 54.3 57.7 61.6 65.8Morocco 102 107 102 99 107 117 127Oman 78 82 85 90 95 102 109Qatar 203 212 231 254 280 310 345Saudi Arabia 744 752 788 834 886 947 1,015Tunisia 46.0 48.3 46.2 46.5 49.5 52.6 56.1UAE 398 423 450 481 514 550 589Yemen 35.8 36.7 39.8 41.6 43.7 45.8 48.4

MENA 3,249 3,442 3,546 3,799 4,138 4,494 4,909GCC 1,631 1,687 1,778 1,895 2,027 2,177 2,347



April 2015

GDP Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. Data for Egypt refer to fiscal year ending in June. Data for Iran refer to Iranian year ending in March.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

GDP per capita, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: GDP per capita in current USD. Data for Egypt refer to fiscal year ending in June. Data for Iran refer to Iranian year ending in March.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in %

GDP per capita, USD

0 40,000 80,000 120,000

YemenMorocco

EgyptTunisiaAlgeriaJordan

IranIraq

MENALebanon

OmanSaudi Arabia

BahrainGCCIsrael

KuwaitUAE

Qatar

0 2 4 6

YemenKuwait

IranLebanon

Saudi ArabiaBahrain

OmanAlgeriaMENA

GCCIsrael

IraqUAE

JordanTunisia

EgyptMorocco

Qatar

2

3

4

5

6


2013 2014 2015 2016

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000


2013 2014 2015 2016

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Algeria 2.8 4.1 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.5Bahrain 5.3 4.5 2.3 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.6Egypt 2.1 2.1 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4Iran -1.9 2.2 2.0 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.5Iraq 4.2 -1.5 3.2 5.1 5.8 6.1 6.2Israel 3.2 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.0Jordan 2.8 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.2Kuwait 1.5 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.3Lebanon 3.0 2.0 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.0Morocco 4.4 2.5 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.9Oman 3.9 3.7 2.6 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.7Qatar 6.3 6.2 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.4Saudi Arabia 2.7 3.6 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.8 3.9Tunisia 2.5 2.6 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.7UAE 5.2 4.1 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8Yemen 3.9 2.1 1.9 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.2

MENA 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.2GCC 3.7 3.9 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.2

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Algeria 5,492 5,684 5,422 5,644 5,962 6,329 6,715Bahrain 27,687 27,933 28,933 30,051 31,246 32,530 33,918Egypt 3,110 3,203 3,301 3,574 4,124 4,392 4,854Iran 4,770 5,601 5,797 6,476 7,251 8,136 9,081Iraq 6,600 6,459 6,720 7,052 7,484 7,944 8,509Israel 36,614 39,407 34,350 34,540 36,236 38,271 40,565Jordan 5,134 5,352 5,547 5,822 6,113 6,415 6,738Kuwait 44,935 45,935 45,760 47,387 48,635 50,485 53,151Lebanon 10,543 10,857 11,254 11,804 12,433 13,135 13,905Morocco 3,104 3,220 3,056 2,935 3,133 3,391 3,659Oman 21,725 22,022 22,114 22,634 23,406 24,250 25,175Qatar 99,368 94,630 95,245 96,828 102,336 111,067 122,055Saudi Arabia 24,815 24,568 25,240 26,164 27,263 28,578 30,022Tunisia 4,225 4,393 4,157 4,147 4,368 4,594 4,851UAE 44,044 45,526 46,982 48,773 50,674 52,726 54,840Yemen 1,344 1,338 1,407 1,428 1,459 1,487 1,530

MENA 8,724 9,061 9,152 9,616 10,276 10,954 11,742GCC 32,791 33,021 33,923 35,253 36,800 38,643 40,724



April 2015

Consumption Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Private consumption, real annual variation in %. Data for Egypt refer to fiscal year ending in June. Data for Iran refer to Iranian year ending in March.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Investment Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %. Data for Egypt refer to total investment and fiscal year ending in June. Data for Iran refer to Iranian year ending in March.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Consumption, annual variation in %

Investment, annual variation in %

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Algeria 5.0 4.9 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9Bahrain 2.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 4.4 5.0 5.7Egypt 2.6 4.1 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8Iran -1.0 2.4 2.1 2.4 3.2 3.5 3.5Iraq - - - - - - -Israel 3.5 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.6 3.8 4.0Jordan 5.0 - - - - - -Kuwait 2.4 4.5 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.7Lebanon - - - - - - -Morocco 3.7 2.7 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5Oman 6.6 4.3 3.3 3.5 4.0 4.1 4.2Qatar 6.5 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.7Saudi Arabia 3.2 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.2Tunisia 3.6 3.2 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0UAE 11.7 6.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.3Yemen 2.6 - - - - - -

MENA 4.2 4.4 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.3GCC 5.8 5.1 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Algeria 8.6 4.8 4.2 4.3 5.0 5.1 5.2Bahrain -13.7 3.2 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4Egypt -9.6 4.6 6.6 9.8 5.0 5.4 5.6Iran -6.9 3.2 1.9 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.7Iraq - - - - - - -Israel 1.1 -2.6 3.9 4.2 4.9 5.4 5.8Jordan - - - - - - -Kuwait 6.2 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 5.2Lebanon - - - - - - -Morocco 0.2 1.7 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.1Oman 5.1 5.1 -1.5 2.2 5.7 6.1 6.2Qatar 10.2 10.1 7.8 8.1 10.1 11.1 11.5Saudi Arabia 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9Tunisia -0.9 0.3 2.8 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.0UAE 7.4 7.1 4.6 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8Yemen -2.4 - - - - - -

MENA 2.4 4.5 4.5 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.6GCC 6.3 6.4 5.0 5.4 5.9 6.1 6.3 -3 0 3 6 9

Oman

Iran

Bahrain

Tunisia

Morocco

Israel

Algeria

MENA

Kuwait

UAE

GCC

Saudi Arabia

Egypt

Qatar

-12

-6

0

6

12


2013 2014 2015 2016

2 3 4 5 6

Iran

Oman

Bahrain

Israel

Tunisia

Algeria

MENA

Saudi Arabia

Kuwait

Morocco

GCC

Egypt

UAE

Qatar

2

4

6

8

10

12


2013 2014 2015 2016



April 2015

Industrial Production Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Industrial production, real annual variation in %. Data for Egypt refer to fiscal year ending in June. Data for Iran refer to Iranian year ending in March.Sources: National statistical institutes.

Industrial Production, annual variation in %2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Algeria 2.2 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.2Bahrain - - - - - - -Egypt 0.7 -8.5 2.7 3.4 3.4 3.8 4.1Iran -2.9 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.7 3.0Iraq 1.4 9.0 7.7 6.4 6.4 6.6 7.1Israel 0.5 1.2 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7Jordan - - - - - - -Kuwait - - - - - - -Lebanon - - - - - - -Morocco 0.9 0.9 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1Oman 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 4.2 4.4 4.9Qatar 3.4 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 4.0Saudi Arabia 0.2 2.9 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3Tunisia 1.7 0.4 2.9 4.2 4.7 4.8 5.0UAE 4.2 0.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1Yemen - - - - - - -

MENA 1.0 1.7 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4GCC 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 0 3 6 9

Saudi Arabia

UAE

GCC

Morocco

Iran

Oman

Egypt

MENA

Tunisia

Qatar

Israel

Algeria

Iraq

-10

-5

0

5


2013 2014 2015 2016

Unemployment, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Annual average unemployment rate.Sources: National statistical institutes.

Unemployment, % of active population2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Algeria 9.8 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.6Bahrain 4.7 4.5 4.7 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.0Egypt 13.3 13.2 13.2 12.9 13.1 13.1 12.8Iran - - - - - - -Iraq 16.0 14.9 14.4 13.5 12.9 12.4 11.8Israel 6.3 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5Jordan 12.6 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.5Kuwait 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2Lebanon 6.5 7.6 7.7 7.5 7.9 8.3 8.8Morocco 9.2 9.9 9.4 8.9 8.9 8.7 8.6Oman 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.8 7.8Qatar 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6Saudi Arabia 11.5 11.6 11.3 11.3 11.1 11.0 10.8Tunisia 15.9 15.8 15.2 14.5 13.4 12.4 11.4UAE 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0Yemen - - - - - - -

MENA 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.0GCC 6.9 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.4 0 4 8 12 16

QatarKuwait

UAEBahrain

IsraelGCC

LebanonOmanMENA

MoroccoAlgeria

Saudi ArabiaJordanEgypt

IraqTunisia

3

6

9

12

15


2013 2014 2015 2016



April 2015

Fiscal Balance, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Fiscal balance in % of GDP. Data for Egypt refer to fiscal year ending in June. Data for Iran refer to Iranian year ending in March.Sources: National statistical institutes and finance ministries.

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Algeria -1.5 -4.1 -9.1 -8.4 -5.9 -5.0 -4.5Bahrain -3.3 -4.9 -11.4 -9.0 -6.9 -5.9 -4.8Egypt -13.7 -12.8 -11.0 -9.9 -9.0 -8.8 -8.8Iran -0.9 -1.4 -2.2 -2.1 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8Iraq -5.9 -4.6 -9.0 -1.9 -0.2 0.2 0.9Israel -3.2 -2.8 -3.2 -2.8 -2.0 -1.4 -0.8Jordan -5.5 -2.3 -4.0 -3.8 -3.8 -3.7 -3.7Kuwait 21.9 17.8 3.0 5.6 9.2 9.5 11.0Lebanon -8.9 -8.2 -8.3 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2Morocco -5.5 -5.0 -4.1 -3.6 -3.6 -3.5 -3.2Oman 0.9 -0.1 -11.0 -7.1 -4.9 -4.4 -4.2Qatar 15.5 9.8 1.9 1.5 3.0 3.1 3.1Saudi Arabia 6.5 -1.4 -12.2 -8.6 -5.1 -4.8 -3.7Tunisia -6.8 -5.0 -5.0 -4.2 -3.5 -2.9 -2.4UAE 6.5 5.4 -3.4 -1.0 -0.5 -0.1 0.3Yemen -8.0 -7.3 -7.0 -6.7 -6.1 -5.8 -5.1

MENA 1.9 -0.6 -6.3 -4.2 -2.7 -2.4 -1.9GCC 8.8 3.8 -6.5 -3.8 -1.4 -1.0 -0.2 -15 -10 -5 0 5

Saudi ArabiaBahrain

OmanEgypt

AlgeriaIraq

LebanonYemen

GCCMENA

TunisiaMorocco

JordanUAE

IsraelIran

QatarKuwait

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10


2013 2014 2015 2016

Inflation, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Annual average variation of consumer price index in %. Data for Iran refer to Iranian year ending in March. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Inflation, variation of consumer prices in %2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Algeria 3.3 2.9 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.8Bahrain 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8Egypt 9.5 10.1 10.0 9.3 9.3 9.2 8.8Iran 35.5 15.9 16.7 15.4 15.2 14.2 13.1Iraq 1.9 2.2 3.6 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.1Israel 1.5 0.5 0.1 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2Jordan 4.8 2.9 2.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3Kuwait 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.8 3.8Lebanon 4.8 1.9 2.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9Morocco 1.9 0.4 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.3Oman 1.3 1.0 1.6 2.2 3.2 3.3 3.4Qatar 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.6Saudi Arabia 3.5 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3Tunisia 5.8 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.7UAE 1.1 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4Yemen 11.0 8.6 10.7 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.8

MENA 7.0 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.5GCC 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5

0

3

6

9

12


2013 2014 2015 2016

0 5 10 15 20

IsraelMorocco

OmanLebanon

JordanBahrain

Saudi ArabiaUAEGCC

KuwaitQatar

IraqAlgeriaTunisiaMENAEgypt

YemenIran



April 2015

Exchange Rates vs. USD, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Annual variation of national currencies versus USD in %. Bahrain, Jordan, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates have a fixed exchange rate against the dollar and are not included in the regional average. Positive number means currency is losing value against USD. Regional aggregates provided only as indicative information. Data for Iran refer to Iranian year ending in March.Sources: Central banks and Thomson Reuters.

Current Account Balance, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Current account balance as % of GDP. Data for Egypt refer to fiscal year ending in June. Data for Iran refer to Iranian year ending in March.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Exchange Rates vs. USD, annual variation in %

Current Account Balance, % of GDP2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Algeria 0.4 -4.1 -9.0 -9.1 -7.7 -6.6 -5.4Bahrain 7.8 6.3 -2.0 -0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2Egypt -2.5 -0.9 -2.1 -2.9 -2.9 -3.2 -3.1Iran 7.6 4.4 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4Iraq 9.6 3.3 -5.4 -0.7 2.5 3.4 4.0Israel 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.7Jordan -10.3 -6.8 -4.4 -5.0 -5.1 -5.1 -5.2Kuwait 39.7 32.0 12.2 16.2 20.1 20.3 20.9Lebanon -23.1 -20.1 -14.3 -14.2 -14.0 -14.1 -14.2Morocco -7.6 -6.2 -4.1 -3.6 -4.4 -5.0 -5.2Oman 6.5 4.5 -8.6 -5.2 -3.8 -3.2 -2.7Qatar 30.8 25.9 9.9 10.4 11.3 11.9 12.3Saudi Arabia 17.8 13.1 -0.7 2.1 4.8 5.2 5.6Tunisia -8.5 -8.9 -7.4 -6.8 -6.3 -4.6 -3.0UAE 16.3 10.9 3.2 3.6 3.1 2.0 0.8Yemen -4.3 -3.1 -3.6 -3.8 -3.7 -3.9 -3.7

MENA 11.1 7.7 0.2 1.6 2.6 2.8 3.0GCC 20.7 15.7 2.6 4.7 6.4 6.4 6.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Algeria -0.34 12.11 2.20 0.20 -0.24 -0.67 -0.34Bahrain - - - - - - -Egypt 9.25 2.90 6.00 3.20 -0.04 0.29 0.57Iran 101.95 13.12 3.79 4.87 3.32 3.34 2.80Iraq 0.11 -1.91 2.47 0.45 2.23 1.13 0.99Israel -7.02 12.04 4.70 -1.38 -2.04 -1.98 -2.03Jordan - - - - - - -Kuwait 0.43 3.72 -0.35 -1.16 2.49 -2.22 0.16Lebanon -0.13 0.57 -0.36 0.13 0.01 0.00 0.00Morocco -3.52 11.04 10.73 0.42 -2.04 -2.02 -1.28Oman - - - - - - -Qatar - - - - - - -Saudi Arabia - - - - - - -Tunisia 6.02 13.45 9.40 1.42 2.50 1.66 1.63UAE - - - - - - -Yemen 0.25 0.05 7.34 6.40 6.37 6.68 4.66

MENA 21.47 7.93 3.97 1.68 1.14 0.61 0.76GCC 0.43 3.72 -0.35 -1.16 2.49 -2.22 0.16

-20 -10 0 10 20

LebanonAlgeriaOman

TunisiaIraq

JordanMorocco

YemenEgypt

BahrainSaudi Arabia

MENAIran

GCCUAE

IsraelQatar

Kuwait

-4 0 4 8 12

Lebanon

GCC

Algeria

Iraq

Iran

MENA

Israel

Egypt

Yemen

Tunisia

Morocco

-10

0

10

20

30


2013 2014 2015 2016

-10

0

10

20

30

MENA GCC Egypt Israel Algeria Kuwait

2013 2014 2015 2016



April 2015

Export Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exports in USD. Data for Egypt refer to fiscal year ending in June. Data for Iran refer to Iranian year ending in March.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Import Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports in USD. Data for Egypt refer to fiscal year ending in June. Data for Iran refer to Iranian year ending in March.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Exports, annual variation in %

Imports, annual variation in %

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Algeria -10.3 -6.7 -28.9 10.7 7.5 7.2 6.9Bahrain 5.9 1.9 -25.9 13.0 11.3 7.4 6.9Egypt 7.6 -3.2 -2.2 6.1 6.4 6.7 6.9Iran -4.4 1.1 -6.9 9.6 9.9 10.5 11.4Iraq -5.1 -1.8 -21.4 29.3 19.8 17.2 13.0Israel -0.1 0.6 4.1 6.6 9.7 12.0 14.2Jordan 0.2 6.0 7.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.0Kuwait -3.7 -9.4 -37.1 15.5 11.6 8.0 6.2Lebanon -7.9 -12.2 -7.9 15.5 7.7 4.4 4.2Morocco 2.3 -11.1 8.9 7.4 7.8 8.6 9.6Oman 8.2 -2.7 -23.5 11.0 9.3 8.5 7.9Qatar 2.9 -3.7 -25.1 14.0 9.4 8.4 7.9Saudi Arabia -3.2 -8.4 -30.3 11.6 10.5 9.5 8.1Tunisia -0.3 0.9 -3.8 8.3 6.0 7.1 6.7UAE 8.3 0.4 -7.6 12.1 11.2 9.6 7.9Yemen 0.4 1.4 -26.1 10.7 11.7 12.1 12.4

MENA -0.4 -3.6 -16.2 11.9 10.3 9.7 9.1GCC 1.0 -5.2 -24.2 12.4 10.6 9.1 7.8

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Algeria 6.6 8.1 -2.7 4.6 5.9 6.3 7.5Bahrain 3.2 3.4 -20.7 13.6 7.8 7.0 6.5Egypt -2.6 3.7 -2.7 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.5Iran -12.6 4.0 0.5 7.3 9.1 10.8 13.6Iraq 7.0 -2.7 -2.9 7.7 10.5 12.7 15.3Israel -0.7 -0.3 2.3 6.7 7.9 9.0 10.0Jordan 6.0 3.2 -2.2 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7Kuwait 6.1 8.3 2.0 6.1 9.1 5.8 5.9Lebanon 0.8 3.1 -13.9 6.4 6.6 7.9 7.3Morocco 0.5 -11.7 -6.4 5.7 6.9 7.1 8.1Oman 24.2 -5.1 -5.7 6.1 7.9 8.2 8.6Qatar 2.3 -1.0 13.3 11.1 11.3 11.8 12.2Saudi Arabia 8.1 1.9 -0.2 5.7 7.8 9.8 10.9Tunisia -1.1 4.7 -13.9 5.8 8.4 7.7 7.2UAE 11.0 6.2 2.7 11.8 12.8 12.5 12.1Yemen -5.3 7.0 -13.3 6.6 7.2 7.7 7.9

MENA 3.5 2.4 -0.2 7.2 8.7 9.5 10.5GCC 8.5 3.0 1.8 8.2 9.7 10.2 10.7 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20

BahrainLebanon

TunisiaYemen

MoroccoOman

IraqAlgeria

EgyptJordan

Saudi ArabiaMENA

IranGCC

KuwaitIsraelUAE

Qatar

-5

0

5

10

15


2013 2014 2015 2016

-40 -20 0 20

KuwaitSaudi Arabia

AlgeriaYemen

BahrainQatarGCC

OmanIraq

MENALebanon

UAEIran

TunisiaEgyptIsrael

JordanMorocco

-40

-20

0

20


2013 2014 2015 2016



April 2015

International Reserves, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: International reserves as months of imports. Data for Egypt refer to fiscal year ending in June. Data for Iran refer to Iranian year ending in March.Sources: Central banks.

External Debt, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: External debt as % of GDP. Data for Egypt refer to fiscal year ending in June.Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and finance ministries.

International Reserves, months of imports

External Debt, % of GDP

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Algeria 42.3 37.3 34.1 30.6 27.2 24.8 22.8Bahrain 4.7 4.9 5.9 5.3 5.2 5.1 4.9Egypt 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1Iran 24.2 21.4 20.2 19.1 18.0 16.4 14.7Iraq 15.3 13.6 12.4 11.2 11.6 11.8 11.9Israel 13.8 14.5 15.2 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.6Jordan 8.1 8.9 9.7 9.1 8.6 8.2 8.0Kuwait 13.8 13.9 14.0 13.7 13.2 12.8 12.5Lebanon 21.5 22.5 24.2 23.9 21.9 20.1 18.5Morocco 5.1 6.1 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5Oman 6.0 6.5 7.1 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.0Qatar 16.0 16.6 14.4 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.9Saudi Arabia 56.8 56.2 56.6 54.3 52.8 50.0 46.8Tunisia 3.9 3.7 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7UAE 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0Yemen 6.0 5.6 6.1 5.8 5.4 5.4 5.4

MENA 24.0 23.0 22.8 21.6 20.7 19.6 18.3GCC 30.6 30.0 29.9 28.5 27.7 26.4 25.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Algeria 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.4Bahrain - - - - - - -Egypt 16.6 16.8 16.8 16.5 14.9 14.1 12.6Iran 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0Iraq 26.2 26.5 25.2 24.6 23.2 21.8 20.4Israel 33.1 30.8 35.6 36.0 34.7 33.8 32.8Jordan 68.0 67.6 65.9 64.0 63.7 60.8 58.9Kuwait 20.6 19.2 17.0 16.4 16.3 16.0 16.0Lebanon 55.5 52.3 63.0 63.5 64.9 65.2 65.1Morocco 39.0 40.8 44.1 47.5 46.3 42.7 40.1Oman - - - - - - -Qatar - - - - - - -Saudi Arabia 11.1 11.6 11.5 10.4 10.4 10.0 9.7Tunisia 56.2 60.4 67.2 72.5 74.3 76.1 77.2UAE 42.5 40.8 38.4 37.8 36.5 35.3 34.0Yemen 20.2 23.5 26.3 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.0

MENA 21.1 20.7 20.8 20.2 19.4 18.6 17.7GCC 21.9 21.7 20.7 19.9 19.5 18.9 18.3 0 20 40 60 80

Algeria

Saudi Arabia

Egypt

Kuwait

GCC

MENA

Iraq

Yemen

Israel

UAE

Morocco

Lebanon

Jordan

Tunisia

10

20

30

40

50


2013 2014 2015 2016

0 20 40 60

EgyptUAE

TunisiaBahrainYemen

MoroccoOman

JordanIraq

KuwaitQatarIsrael

IranMENA

LebanonGCC

AlgeriaSaudi Arabia

0

20

40

60


2013 2014 2015 2016

FOCUSECONOMICS Algeria


April 2015

AlgeriaOutlook stable

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages

Carl KellyEconomist

Algeria

The Algerian government is coming under increasing pressure due to ongoing low oil prices. Oil and gas revenues represent more than 95% of the country’s foreign earnings and 60% of the fiscal budget. Several key infrastructure projects have already been delayed due to lower incoming revenues. Late last month Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellal announced that the administration would attempt to counteract budgetary pressures by trimming the government’s import bill, reducing corruption and integrating the informal sector into the economy. Sellal also declared that the low oil price environment presents a valuable opportunity to diversify the economy and promote non-oil exports, yet doing so will be a long and complicated process.

Low oil prices will put a damper on the Algerian economy going forward. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 2.9% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. Panelists also foresee the economy growing 2.9% in 2016.

Inflation increased from 4.7% in January to 5.6% in February. FocusEconomics panelists see inflation averaging 4.5% in both 2015 and 2016.

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 37.4 39.5 41.6GDP (USD bn): 205 220 264GDP per capita (USD): 5,482 5,583 6,335GDP growth (%): 3.0 3.3 3.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.4 -7.2 -5.1Public Debt (% of GDP): 8.1 10.3 10.8Inflation (%): 5.5 3.9 4.0Current Account (% of GDP): 5.1 -7.4 -6.6External Debt (% of GDP): 5.6 6.1 6.7

Annual data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 36.0 36.7 37.5 37.9 38.7 39.5 40.2 40.9 41.6 42.3GDP per capita (USD) 4,512 5,419 5,536 5,492 5,684 5,422 5,644 5,962 6,329 6,715GDP (USD bn) 162 199 208 208 220 214 227 244 263 284GDP (DZD bn) 11,992 14,527 16,115 16,569 17,731 18,821 20,206 21,704 23,324 25,042Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, annual var. %) 20.3 21.1 10.9 2.8 7.0 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.4Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 3.6 2.8 3.3 2.8 4.1 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.5Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 5.6 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 7.0 2.9 7.2 8.6 4.8 4.2 4.3 5.0 5.1 5.2Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -5.1 -1.3 -0.1 2.2 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.2Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 10.0 10.0 11.0 9.8 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.5 -1.2 -4.4 -1.5 -4.1 -9.1 -8.4 -5.9 -5.0 -4.5Public Debt (% of GDP) 9.2 8.4 8.1 7.9 9.1 10.7 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.5Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M1 in %) 17.7 19.8 18.8 11.6 12.9 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 3.9 4.5 8.9 3.3 2.9 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.8Discount Rate (%, eop) 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.10 4.10 4.39Exchange Rate (DZD per USD, eop) 74.5 76.0 78.7 78.4 87.9 89.9 90.1 89.9 89.3 89.0Exchange Rate (DZD per USD, aop) 73.9 73.0 77.6 79.6 80.6 88.9 90.0 90.0 89.6 89.1External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 7.5 8.9 5.9 0.4 -4.1 -9.0 -9.1 -7.7 -6.6 -5.4Current Account Balance (USD bn) 12.2 17.8 12.3 0.9 -9.1 -19.3 -20.7 -18.8 -17.5 -15.4Trade Balance (USD bn) 18.2 26.0 20.2 9.4 0.6 -15.1 -13.2 -13.3 -13.6 -15.0Exports (USD bn) 57.1 72.9 71.7 64.4 60.0 42.7 47.3 50.8 54.5 58.2Imports (USD bn) 38.9 46.9 51.6 55.0 59.4 57.8 60.4 64.0 68.0 73.2Exports (annual variation in %) 26.4 27.7 -1.6 -10.3 -6.7 -28.9 10.7 7.5 7.2 6.9Imports (annual variation in %) 4.0 20.7 9.9 6.6 8.1 -2.7 4.6 5.9 6.3 7.5International Reserves (USD bn) 162.2 182.2 190.6 194.0 184.6 164.4 154.0 145.0 140.9 138.7International Reserves (months of imports) 50.1 46.6 44.4 42.3 37.3 34.1 30.6 27.2 24.8 22.8External Debt (USD bn) 7.2 6.0 5.5 5.2 5.5 6.1 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.8External Debt (% of GDP) 4.5 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.4



April 2015

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real and monetary sector data are from the National Office of Statistics (ONS, Office National des Statistiques) and Thomson Reuters. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: ONS. 4 GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.2 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: ONS. 5 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.3 Exchange rate, DZD per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters. 6 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.

4 | GDP | evolution of forecasts

1 | GDP | variation in %

5 | Inflation | evolution of forecasts

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2015 2016

90 days ago60 days ago30 days agoCurrent

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

AlgeriaMENAWorld

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

2015 2016


Economic Indicators

3 | Exchange Rate | DZD per USD 2 | Inflation | in %

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Algeria

MENA

65

75

85

95

2000 2005 2010 2015

6 | DZD per USD | evol of fcsts

80

84

88

92

2015 2016


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BNP Paribas 3.5 - - - 4.0 - - - -3.3 -Capital Economics 1.5 1.5 -17.5 -17.5 4.5 4.5 - - -14.0 -14.0Credit Agricole 2.7 3.1 - - 5.1 4.9 - - -8.2 -7.6EIU 2.7 3.1 -9.7 -7.2 4.9 4.8 95.5 94.7 -9.9 -8.6Emirates NBD 2.9 3.0 -2.3 -2.8 - - - - -2.3 -2.2Euler Hermes 3.0 3.5 - - - - - - - -Frontier Strategy Group 3.0 2.9 - - 4.7 4.6 - - - -HSBC 3.0 2.3 -9.7 -9.4 - - 89.0 89.7 -10.8 -9.7Oxford Economics 3.5 3.8 -6.5 -5.2 3.5 3.5 85.2 85.9 -14.6 -12.5SummaryMinimum 1.5 1.5 -17.5 -17.5 3.5 3.5 85.2 85.9 -14.6 -14.0Maximum 3.5 3.8 -2.3 -2.8 5.1 4.9 95.5 94.7 -2.3 -2.2Median 3.0 3.1 -9.7 -7.2 4.6 4.6 89.0 89.7 -9.9 -9.2Consensus 2.9 2.9 -9.1 -8.4 4.5 4.5 89.9 90.1 -9.0 -9.1

variation in % % of GDP var. in % DZD per USD % of GDPReal GDP Fiscal Balance Prices (CPI) Exchange Rate Current Account



April 2015

Algeria in the Region

Population | %-share in MENA GDP | %-share in MENA

Fact Sheet

Algeria6.3%

Saudi Arabia22.0%

UAE12.4%

Iran12.3%

Israel9.3%

Other37.8%

Algeria10.2%

Egypt22.5%

Iran20.5%

Iraq9.4%

Morocco8.7%

Other28.6%

Other EU-

2715.5%

France12.8%

Italy10.3%

Spain8.6%

Other Asia ex-Japan

6.8%

China11.8%

LatAm, 7.4%

Other26.8%

U.S.A.15.0%

Canada7.1%

Other EU-27

12.6%

Italy16.0%Spain

10.9%

France8.5%

Asia ex-Japan6.3%

LatAm5.5%

Other18.1%

Other7.8%

Manufact. Products72.5%

Food19.6%

Other2.8%

Mineral Fuels97.2%

Trade Structure

Primary markets | share in %

Primary products | share in %

Economic Structure

GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment

GovernmentConsumption

PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Oil and Gas

Other Industry

Services

General Data

Economic Infrastructure

Political Data

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Strengths Weaknesses

• Low external debt • High youth unemployment rate

• Large oil and gas reserves • Large weight of public sector

• High level of international reserves

• Highly dependent on hydrocarbons

• Potential in the areas of renewable energy and tourism

• Bureaucracy in business environment

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 7,198Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 2,235Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 54.0Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 42.9Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 1,875.2Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 368CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 133.9

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: - -S&P: - -Fitch Ratings: - -

Telecommunication (2013) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 8.0Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 102Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 16.5Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 3.3

Transportation (2013) Airports: 157Railways (km): 3,973Roadways (km): 113,655Waterways (km): -Chief Ports: Algiers, Annaba, Oran

Official Name: People's DemocraticRepublic of Algeria

Capital: Algiers (5.0m)Other cities: Oran (1.2m)

Constantine (0.9m)Area (km2): 2,381,741Population (million, 2014 est.): 38.7Population density (per km2, 2014): 16.2Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.9Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 75.5Illiteracy rate (%, 2006): 27.4Language: Arabic, FrenchMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+1

President: Abdelaziz BouteflikaLast elections: 17 April 2014Next elections: 2017Central Bank President Mohammed Laksaci

FOCUSECONOMICS Bahrain


April 2015

BahrainOutlook moderates


Dirina MançellariEconomist

Bahrain

The Bahraini economy decelerated slightly in the last quarter of 2014 after having recorded robust growth rates in the first three quarters of the year. GDP expanded 4.0% annually, which marked a deceleration from Q3’s 5.1% expansion. For the full year 2014, economic activity grew 4.5%. The loss of momentum in the three months through December was mainly attributed to a contraction in the oil sector following three consecutive periods of expansion. Conversely, the non-oil sector accelerated in Q4. Strong improvements were recorded in manufacturing as well as in construction, which reflected the launch of important infrastructure projects.

This year, the economy is expected to suffer the effects of lower oil prices and decelerate significantly compared to the previous year. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 2.3% in 2015. The panel expects the economy to grow 2.9% in 2016.

Inflation fell from 2.5% in January to 2.1% in February, thus dropping to the lowest level in nine months. Panelists expect inflation to average 2.5% in 2015 and 2.7% in 2016.

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 1.2 1.2 1.3GDP (USD bn): 30.5 35.4 42.2GDP per capita (USD): 26,504 28,972 32,565GDP growth (%): 3.6 3.2 3.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.9 -8.4 -5.9Public Debt (% of GDP): 34.7 61.9 65.2Inflation (%): 1.9 2.6 2.7Current Account (% of GDP): 8.8 1.3 0.8

Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3GDP per capita (USD) 22,923 25,441 26,383 27,687 27,933 28,933 30,051 31,246 32,530 33,918GDP (USD bn) 25.4 28.7 30.4 32.5 33.5 35.4 37.4 39.7 42.2 44.8GDP (BHD bn) 9.7 10.9 11.6 12.4 12.7 13.9 14.7 15.5 16.5 17.5Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 12.1 13.0 5.9 7.0 3.0 4.8 5.6 6.0 6.2 6.4Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 4.4 2.1 3.5 5.3 4.5 2.3 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.6Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 14.2 6.6 1.1 2.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 4.4 5.0 5.7Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 14.7 -35.1 27.5 -13.7 3.2 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.7 4.5 4.7 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.0Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.6 -0.3 -2.0 -3.3 -4.9 -11.4 -9.0 -6.9 -5.9 -4.8Public Debt (% of GDP) 25.2 29.0 33.6 41.4 52.6 64.6 68.4 67.0 65.2 63.4Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 10.5 3.4 4.1 8.2 7.1 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 2.0 -0.4 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.81-Week Deposit Rate (%, eop) 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.64Exchange Rate (BHD per USD, eop) 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 3.0 11.3 7.3 7.8 6.3 -2.0 -0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2Current Account Balance (USD bn) 0.8 3.2 2.2 2.5 2.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5Trade Balance (USD bn) 2.5 7.5 6.5 7.3 7.2 4.6 5.1 5.9 6.5 7.1Exports (USD bn) 13.6 19.6 19.7 20.9 21.3 15.7 17.8 19.8 21.3 22.7Imports (USD bn) 11.2 12.1 13.2 13.6 14.1 11.2 12.7 13.7 14.6 15.6Exports (annual variation in %) 14.9 44.0 0.6 5.9 1.9 -25.9 13.0 11.3 7.4 6.9Imports (annual variation in %) 16.4 8.2 9.3 3.2 3.4 -20.7 13.6 7.8 7.0 6.5International Reserves (USD bn) 5.1 4.6 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.4International Reserves (months of imports) 5.5 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.9 5.3 5.2 5.1 4.9



April 2015

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real, monetary and external sector data are from the Ministry of Finance, Central Informatics Organisation (CIO) and the Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: Ministry of Finance. 2 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: CIO 3 Current acount balance as % of GDP. Source: CBB




2.0

2.3

2.6

2.9

3.2

2015 2016


-4

0

4

8

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

Bahrain MENA

World

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2015 2016


Economic Indicators

3 | Current Account | % of GDP 2 | Inflation | in %

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2000 2005 2010 2015

Bahrain

MENA

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2000 2005 2010 2015

Bahrain

MENA

6 | Current Account | evol of fcsts

-4

-3

-2

-1

02015 2016


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BNP Paribas 3.3 3.1 -14.0 -11.0 2.4 2.5 -1.4 2.1Capital Economics 2.0 1.5 -14.0 -14.0 2.3 2.0 -2.5 -2.5Citigroup Global Mkts -2.4 1.5 -10.7 -6.6 2.6 2.8 -7.8 -2.7EIU 1.8 2.7 -10.0 -6.8 1.9 2.5 -1.9 -0.5Emirates NBD 3.6 4.3 -14.3 -11.6 3.0 3.5 -1.8 -0.8Euler Hermes 3.5 3.5 - - - - - -HSBC 1.7 1.9 -12.0 -9.6 2.2 2.0 - -Jadwa Investment 3.0 3.2 -10.0 -8.4 2.5 2.7 0.6 1.9JPMorgan 3.5 3.9 -3.9 -2.4 3.0 3.1 - -National Bank of Kuwait 1.8 2.6 -15.5 -12.5 3.0 3.0 - -Oxford Economics 2.7 2.9 -9.8 -6.7 2.3 2.6 -2.2 -2.5Standard Chartered 3.0 4.0 - - 2.5 2.6 1.0 2.0SummaryMinimum -2.4 1.5 -15.5 -14.0 1.9 2.0 -7.8 -2.7Maximum 3.6 4.3 -3.9 -2.4 3.0 3.5 1.0 2.1Median 2.8 3.0 -11.4 -9.0 2.5 2.6 -1.9 -0.7Consensus 2.3 2.9 -11.4 -9.0 2.5 2.7 -2.0 -0.4

variation in % var. in % % of GDP% of GDPReal GDP Prices (CPI) Current AccountFiscal Balance

4 GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.5 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.6 Current account balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the

last 4 months.



April 2015

Bahrain in the Region


Fact Sheet

Bahrain1.0%

Saudi Arabia21.9%

Iran12.7%

UAE12.3%Israel

9.2%

Other43.0%

Bahrain0.3%

Egypt22.5%

Iran20.5%

Algeria10.2%

Iraq9.4%

Other37.1%

U.S.A.9.5%

Japan6.4%

EU-2717.2%

Other Asia ex-Japan

10.9%China9.5%

,

Other MENA6.0%

Saudi Arabia27.3%

Other13.2%

Asia ex-Japan7.8%

MENA8.8%

Other83.4%

Other0.6%


Ores & Metals8.2%

Mineral Fuels42.2%

Food7.9%

Other2.4%

Manufact. Products

7.7%

Ores & Metals18.3%

Mineral Fuels71.6%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Oil and Gas

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Rich in natural resources • Socio-political tensions

.

• Dependence on foreign workforce

• Main financial centre in the region

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 597Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 584Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 13.3Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 11.7Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 55.2Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 46.0CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 32.2

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Baa2 NegativeS&P: BBB- NegativeFitch Ratings: BBB Negative


Transportation (2013) Airports: 4Railways (km): -Roadways (km): 4,122Waterways (km): -Chief Ports: Al Hidd, Mina Salman

Official name: Kingdom of BahrainCapital: Al-Manama (0.15m)Other cities: Al-Muharraq (0.17m)Area (km2): 760Population (million, 2014 est.): 1.2Population density (per km2, 2014): 1576Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 2.5Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 78.6Illiteracy rate (%, 2010): 5.4Language: ArabicMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+3

Head of State: King Hamad bin Isa Al KhalifaPrime Minister: Khalifa Bin Salman Al KhalifaLast elections: 22 November 2014Next elections: -Central Bank Governor: Rasheed Mohammed Al Maraj

FOCUSECONOMICS Egypt


April 2015

EgyptOutlook improves


Egypt

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 81.6 87.1 92.4GDP (USD bn): 246 293 412GDP per capita (USD): 3,009 3,359 4,457GDP growth (%): 2.1 3.5 4.3Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -11.4 -11.2 -8.8Public Debt (% of GDP): 80.6 92.1 92.6Inflation (%): 8.9 9.8 9.1Current Account (% of GDP): -3.1 -1.9 -3.1External Debt (% of GDP): 15.3 16.7 13.9

The Egyptian economy grew a notable 5.6% in the first half of FY 2015 as political stability returned and President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi launched an ambitious reform agenda. However, recent data show a loss of momentum in recent months. Industrial production contracted in January after having averaged growth of more than 20.0% in the prior six months. In March, the PMI increased, but remained in contraction territory. Despite the recent slowdown, hopes are high that Egypt will kick back into high gear as investment increases. Egypt secured more than USD 60 billion in financing during an economic conference in mid-March. This included USD 12.5 billion in aid from Gulf countries and more than USD 30 billion in large-scale investment projects. The government also announced plans for a new Dubai-style capital city, the development of which is worth up to USD 45 billion. Moody’s upgrading of Egypt’s rating from Caa1 to B3 on 7 April should further stoke both investor confidence and government plans to return to international bond markets in the coming months.

The economy is expected to continue making progress, although the execution and impact of investment deals is crucial. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 4.0% in FY 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For FY 2016, the panel sees the economy growing 4.3%.

Inflation jumped from 10.6% in February to 11.5% in March. Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to average 10.0% in calendar year 2015 and foresee it slowing to 9.3% in calendar year 2016.

REAL SECTOR | GDP decelerates in Q2 of FY 2015According to official data, GDP increased 4.3% in the October–December period (the second quarter of fiscal year 2015) over the same period of the previous year. This marked a deceleration from the 6.8% increase tallied in the first quarter of FY 2015 but was still the second strongest expansion in three years. The result suggests that the economic rebound that gained traction after the return of relative political stability may be losing steam.

The deceleration in Q2 was mainly driven by a slowdown in export growth. Exports increased just 3.1% in Q2 after having expanded 15.0% in Q1. On the domestic side, government consumption expanded 5.0%, which followed the 8.8% expansion in Q1. Private consumption growth slowed to 4.5% in Q2 (Q1: 4.9% year-on-year).

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect GDP to expand 4.0% in fiscal year 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points over last month’s projection. For fiscal year 2016, the panel sees the economy increasing 4.3%.

Gross Domestic Product | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year variation in %.Source: Ministry of Finance (CBS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15

%

Carl Kelly Economist



April 2015

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production tumbles at start of yearIn January, industrial production contracted 5.3% over the same month of last year, which contrasted the 7.0% increase recorded in December. The result was the weakest since March of last year. Industrial production expanded at an average rate above 20.0% during the second half of 2014 amid a new era of relative political stability. However, January’s print suggests that the economy has cooled after a period of catching up. January’s decline was mainly driven by double-digit contractions in the tourism and construction sectors.

On a sequential basis, industrial production increased 9.9% over the previous month, which contrasted the 5.3% decrease registered in December. Annual average growth in industrial production ticked up from 10.4% in December to 10.5% in January, which marked an over-six-year high.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to increase 2.7% in fiscal year 2015, which is unchanged over last month’s estimate. The panel expects industrial production to increase 3.4% in fiscal year 2016.

OUTLOOK | PMI recovers ground in March, but remains in contraction territoryThe HSBC Egypt Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased from 46.8 in February to 49.6 in March. Despite the improvement, the PMI is still below the 50-threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the non-oil producing private sector. The PMI held in expansion territory during the second half of last year as the economy went on a recovery streak, but operating conditions in the manufacturing sector have faltered in the first quarter of this year.

March’s result reflects a third consecutive contraction in production levels and a fourth straight month in which manufacturers cut employment. In positive news, new orders returned to growth for the first time this year. However, political and economic uncertainty continues to weigh on new business. Meanwhile, the depreciation of the Egyptian pound against the U.S. dollar is pushing up inputs costs.

HSBC analysts noted that, “Egypt’s non-oil private sector remained in contraction territory in March, continuing the trend observed so far in 2015. Subdued demand conditions led to further declines in output and employment during the month. Meanwhile, the weaker currency continued to place upward pressure on input costs. As a result, the outlook for Egypt remains uncertain, with the depreciating pound providing a key source of instability.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect total investment to increase 6.6% in fiscal year 2015, which is up 2.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. The panel expects total investment to increase 9.8% in fiscal year 2016.

MONETARY SECTOR | Annual inflation hits five-month high in MarchIn March, consumer prices increased 1.5% over the previous month, which was below the 1.9% rise recorded in February. According to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, the increase was driven by higher prices for housing and utilities as well as for food and non-alcoholic beverages. Prices in most other categories increased, although at a slower rate compared to the previous month.

Inflation | Consumer Price Index

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS).

3.0

7.0

11.0

15.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15

Month-on-month (left scale)

Year-on-year (right scale)

%%

Purchasing Managers’ Index

Note: HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index. Readings above 50 indicate an improvement in non-oil business conditions while readings below 50 indicate a deterioration.Source: HSBC and Markit.

40

45

50

55


Industrial Production | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth of industrial production in %.Source: Ministry of Planning (MoP) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Year-on-year

Annual average

%



April 2015

Annual inflation jumped from 10.6% in February to 11.5% in March. This marked the highest result since October of last year when inflationary pressures surged due to the government’s energy subsidy cuts. March’s reading confirms that inflation remains stubbornly-high as the government continues to attempt to boost economic growth. Annual average inflation increased from 10.0% in February to 10.2% in March.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to average 10.0% in calendar year 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points over last month’s projection. For calendar year 2016, the panel sees average inflation decreasing to 9.3%.



April 2015

Economic Indicators | 2010 - 2019

Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 77.8 79.6 81.4 83.7 85.4 87.1 88.8 90.6 92.4 94.3GDP per capita (USD) 2,676 2,831 3,086 3,110 3,203 3,301 3,574 4,124 4,392 4,854GDP (USD bn) 208 225 251 260 273 287 317 374 406 458GDP (EGP bn) 1,151 1,310 1,509 1,677 1,911 2,154 2,447 2,782 3,158 3,576Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 15.7 13.8 15.2 11.2 13.9 14.0 13.6 13.7 13.5 13.2Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 5.1 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.1 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.1 5.5 6.5 2.6 4.1 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8Total Investment (annual variation in %) 8.0 -2.2 5.8 -9.6 4.6 6.6 9.8 5.0 5.4 5.6Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 5.4 -0.2 2.9 0.7 -8.5 2.7 3.4 3.4 3.8 4.1Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 14.3 14.3 8.7 10.2 14.3 - - - - -Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 9.0 12.0 12.7 13.3 13.2 13.2 12.9 13.1 13.1 12.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -8.1 -9.8 -10.8 -13.7 -12.8 -11.0 -9.9 -9.0 -8.8 -8.8Public Debt (% of GDP) 73.6 76.2 78.6 87.1 90.9 92.6 92.7 93.4 92.7 91.7Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 12.4 6.7 12.4 18.9 15.8 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 10.6 9.5 4.7 11.7 10.1 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 10.5 10.1 7.1 9.5 10.1 10.0 9.3 9.3 9.2 8.8Overnight Deposit Rate (%, eop) 8.25 9.25 9.25 8.25 9.25 8.50 8.83 9.00 9.05 9.25Exchange Rate (EGP per USD, eop) 5.81 6.03 6.36 6.95 7.15 7.61 7.86 7.86 7.88 7.92Exchange Rate (EGP per USD, aop) 5.64 5.95 6.07 6.87 7.08 7.57 7.79 7.53 7.87 7.90External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.1 -2.7 -4.0 -2.5 -0.9 -2.1 -2.9 -2.9 -3.2 -3.1Current Account Balance (USD bn) -4.3 -6.1 -10.1 -6.4 -2.4 -6.0 -9.1 -11.0 -13.0 -14.1Trade Balance (USD bn) -25.1 -27.1 -34.1 -30.7 -33.7 -32.7 -33.8 -35.1 -36.6 -38.2Exports (USD bn) 23.9 27.0 25.1 27.0 26.1 25.5 27.1 28.8 30.8 32.9Imports (USD bn) 49.0 54.1 59.2 57.7 59.8 58.2 60.9 64.0 67.4 71.2Exports (annual variation in %) -5.2 13.1 -7.1 7.6 -3.2 -2.2 6.1 6.4 6.7 6.9Imports (annual variation in %) -2.7 10.4 9.5 -2.6 3.7 -2.7 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.5International Reserves (USD bn) 35.2 26.6 15.6 15.0 16.7 16.8 17.8 17.1 17.5 18.1International Reserves (months of imports) 8.6 5.9 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.1External Debt (USD bn) 33.7 34.9 34.4 43.2 46.1 48.3 52.5 55.6 57.3 57.8External Debt (% of GDP) 16.2 15.5 13.7 16.6 16.8 16.8 16.5 14.9 14.1 12.6 Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 6.8 4.3 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.2 5.3 5.2 5.3Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 11.2 10.4 10.6 11.0 9.7 9.5 8.8 9.0 9.0 9.5Overnight Deposit Rate (%, eop) 9.25 9.25 8.75 8.60 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.53 8.65 8.83Exchange Rate (EGP per USD, eop) 7.15 7.15 7.63 7.54 7.63 7.61 7.80 7.80 7.83 7.86Exchange Rate (EGP per USD, aop) 7.15 7.15 7.51 7.58 7.59 7.62 7.70 7.80 7.82 7.85 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 16.2 9.3 36.3 30.2 25.2 20.8 7.0 -5.3 - -HSBC PMI (50-threshold) 51.5 49.0 51.6 52.4 51.0 50.7 51.4 49.3 46.8 49.6Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.8 3.5 1.1 1.2 1.7 -1.5 -0.1 1.0 1.9 1.5Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 8.2 11.0 11.5 11.1 11.8 9.1 10.1 9.7 10.6 11.5Exchange Rate (EGP per USD, eop) 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.59 7.63 7.63

NotesAll real and external sector data (except unemployment) refer to fiscal year (July-June). All monetary sector data refer to calendar year (January-December).



April 2015

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %

3 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts

5 | Unemployment | % active pop. 6 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in % Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance


Notes and sources

All annual real sector data refer to fiscal year (July-June) unless otherwise stated. Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) and Ministry of Finance (MoF). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: CBE.2 Quarterly GDP, year-on-year variation in %. Quarters correspond to

calendar year (i.e. Q1=January-March).3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Unemployment, % of active population. Data refer to calendar year.6 General government balance as % of GDP.7 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18

months. Data refer to calendar year.8 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016

forecasts during the last 18 months.

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Egypt MENA

World0

3

6

9

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Egypt MENA

World

2

3

4

5

6


MaximumConsensusMinimum

1

2

3

4

5

6



-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Egypt MENA

4

8

12

16

2000 2005 2010 2015

Egypt MENA

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BofA Merrill Lynch 3.6 3.8 -11.0 -10.5BNP Paribas 3.7 4.3 -11.0 -9.7Byblos Bank Group 4.0 - -11.0 -Capital Economics 4.8 5.0 -11.0 -10.0Citigroup Global Mkts 3.4 4.3 -10.6 -10.4Credit Agricole 4.0 4.2 - -EIU 4.0 4.2 -10.5 -9.0Emirates NBD 3.9 4.7 -10.6 -9.8Euler Hermes 4.0 4.5 - -Frontier Strategy Group 3.7 3.8 - -HSBC 3.6 4.2 -13.9 -12.2JPMorgan 4.2 3.2 -10.8 -9.8Julius Baer 4.0 4.0 - -National Bank of Kuwait 4.5 5.5 -10.0 -9.0Oxford Economics 4.2 4.5 -10.6 -9.1Standard Chartered 4.5 4.0 - -SummaryMinimum 3.4 3.2 -13.9 -12.2Maximum 4.8 5.5 -10.0 -9.0Median 4.0 4.2 -10.8 -9.8Consensus 4.0 4.3 -11.0 -9.9History30 days ago 3.8 4.3 -10.9 -9.960 days ago 3.7 4.2 -11.0 -10.090 days ago 3.5 4.1 -10.7 -9.4Additional ForecastsFinance Min. (Oct. 2014) 3.5 4.7 - -IMF (Oct. 2014) 2.2 3.5 - -

Real GDPvariation in %

Fiscal Balance% of GDP

8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst

-14

-12

-10

-8


2015 2016

7 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst

12

13

14

15


2015 2016



April 2015

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Current Account Balance

Inflation and Current Account Balance

Notes and sources

All annual monetary sector data refer to calendar year. All annual external sector data refer to fiscal year (July-June). Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 9 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %. 10 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %. 11 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months. 12 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Current account balance as % of GDP. 14 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BofA Merrill Lynch 11.0 12.0 -3.5 -4.3BNP Paribas 10.4 10.1 -2.3 -4.8Byblos Bank Group 9.6 - -2.2 -Capital Economics 9.0 8.0 -2.0 -2.5Citigroup Global Mkts 9.2 8.2 -2.3 -3.1Credit Agricole 9.5 8.7 -1.3 -2.1EIU 9.5 8.7 -1.1 -1.7Emirates NBD 12.0 10.0 -0.1 -0.4Euler Hermes - - - -Frontier Strategy Group 10.0 9.5 - -HSBC 10.2 10.0 -3.4 -5.8JPMorgan - - -2.6 -2.6Julius Baer 11.0 10.0 - -National Bank of Kuwait 10.0 8.0 - -Oxford Economics 9.0 8.0 -2.4 -2.4Standard Chartered 9.0 10.0 -2.0 -2.0SummaryMinimum 9.0 8.0 -3.5 -5.8Maximum 12.0 12.0 -0.1 -0.4Median 9.8 9.5 -2.3 -2.5Consensus 10.0 9.3 -2.1 -2.9History30 days ago 10.2 9.4 -2.4 -2.860 days ago 10.2 9.4 -2.4 -2.890 days ago 11.2 9.9 -2.1 -2.7Additional ForecastsIMF (Oct. 2014) 13.5 12.0 - -

CPIvariation in %

Current Account% of GDP

9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %

11 | Inflation 2015 | evolution of fcst

10 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %


6

8

10

12

14



0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Egypt MENA

6

8

10

12

14



3

6

9

12

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Egypt MENA

14 | Current Account | evol. of fcst 13 | Current Account | % of GDP

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0


2015 2016

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Egypt MENA



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Egypt in the Region

Population | %-share in MENA region GDP | %-share in MENA region

Egypt8.0%

Saudi Arabia21.9%

Iran12.8%

UAE12.3%

Israel9.2%

Other35.8%

Egypt22.5%

Iran20.5%

Algeria10.2%

Iraq9.4%

Morocco8.7%

Other28.6%

U.S.A.7.6% Russia

5.3%Ukraine

5.3%

Turkey5.1%

Other EU-27

18.0%

Germany6.7%

Italy5.0%

Other Asia ex-Japan

9.7%

China9.5%

LatAm, 5.8%

MENA13.3%

Other8.6%

U.S.A.6.8%

Turkey5.3%

Other EU-27

18.9%

Italy7.9%

India

6.9%

Other MENA16.6%

Saudi Arabia6.2%

Other31.3%

Other3.1%


Ores & Metals5.0%

Mineral Fuels15.7%

Food21.7%

Other3.0%


Ores & Metals6.1%

Mineral Fuels30.8%

Food15.5%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Diverse economy• Large population

• Suez Canal • High poverty levels

• Support from both Arab and Western countries

• Political instability and social unrest• Depleted foreign exchange reserves

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,810Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 3,540Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 155.3Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 135.6Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 712Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 725CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 206

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: B3 StableS&P: B- StableFitch Ratings: B Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 83Railways (km): 5,083Roadways (km): 137,430Waterways (km): 3,500Chief Ports: Alexandria, Damietta, Port Said

Official name: Arab Republic of EgyptCapital: Cairo (8.1m)Other cities: Alexandria (4.3m)

Giza (3.3m)Area (km2): 1,001,450Population (million, 2014 est.): 85.4Population density (per km2, 2014 est.): 85Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.8Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 73.5Illiteracy rate (%, 2012): 26.1Language: ArabicMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+2

President: Abdel Fattah el-SisiLast elections: 26 May 2014Next elections: 2018Central Bank Chairman: Hisham Ramez

FOCUSECONOMICS Iran


April 2015

Iran


Iran

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 76.0 79.0 82.1GDP (USD bn): 485 471 670GDP per capita (USD): 6,387 5,958 8,156GDP growth (%): -1.6 2.3 3.3Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -0.8 -1.9 -2.7Inflation (%): 29.0 16.0 14.2Current Account (% of GDP): 7.7 2.6 2.2External Debt (% of GDP): 10.6 6.9 7.3

Outlook deterioratesOn 2 April, negotiators from the U.S.-led group of six countries and Iran

announced an outline agreement on Iran’s nuclear program. The deal includes a reduction in Iran’s nuclear capabilities and gives inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency access to inspect any nuclear facility in the country. In exchange, economic sanctions against Iran would be lifted. As the timing for lifting sanctions is unclear, this is still the main obstacle to reaching an agreement before the 30 June deadline. While Iranian authorities want all sanctions to be lifted on the first day of the deal’s implementation, the United States stresses that the removal must be gradual.

Uncertainty regarding when relief from economic sanctions will come and the low oil price environment continue to weigh on Iran’s economic outlook. Panelists expect GDP to expand 2.0% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 2.9% in 2016.

Inflation rose from 15.7% in January to 16.2% in February. Inflationary pressures remain high as the plunge in oil prices is weakening the rial in the black market. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 16.7% in 2015 and see it declining to 15.4% in 2016.

Ricard TornéSenior Economist




2 | Inflation | in %

6 | IRR per USD | evol. of fcst

3 | Exchange Rate | IRR per USD

26,000

28,000

30,000

32,000

2015 2016


2.0

2.3

2.6

2.9

2015 2016


-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Iran

MENA

World

15

16

17

18

19

2015 2016


0

10

20

30

40

2000 2005 2010 2015

Iran MENA

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2000 2005 2010 2015

FOCUSECONOMICS Iran


April 2015

Economic Indicators | 2010/11 - 2019/20

Notes and sources

General: All annual data refer to Iranian year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All real and monetary sector data are from the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) and Thomson Reuters. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: CBI.2 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: CBI.3 Exchange rate, IRR per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.4 GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.5 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.6 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20Real Sector Population (million) 74.3 75.2 76.0 77.0 78.0 79.0 80.0 81.0 82.1 83.1GDP per capita (USD) 6,190 6,779 7,611 4,770 5,601 5,797 6,476 7,251 8,136 9,081GDP (USD bn) 460 509 578 367 437 458 518 587 668 755GDP (IRR tn) 4,741 6,246 7,091 9,343 11,033 13,094 15,489 18,312 21,529 25,107Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 21.8 31.7 13.5 31.8 18.1 18.7 18.3 18.2 17.6 16.6Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 6.5 4.3 -6.8 -1.9 2.2 2.0 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.5Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.2 4.2 -1.7 -1.0 2.4 2.1 2.4 3.2 3.5 3.5Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) -3.8 -3.4 -7.2 1.6 - - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 3.8 3.5 -23.8 -6.9 3.2 1.9 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.7Industry (annual variation in %) 7.9 5.0 -6.4 -2.9 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.7 3.0Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 13.5 12.3 12.2 10.4 11.6 12.1 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.0Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.9 -1.4 -2.2 -2.1 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8Public Debt (% of GDP) 13.5 9.2 11.8 11.3 11.0 12.1 12.9 13.4 14.2 14.8Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) -41.8 -33.3 32.6 16.8 - - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 19.7 20.5 41.2 19.7 - - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 12.3 21.5 30.2 35.5 15.9 16.7 15.4 15.2 14.2 13.1Exchange Rate (IRR per USD, eop) 10,420 12,257 12,279 24,797 28,050 29,154 30,648 31,699 32,794 33,738Exchange Rate (IRR per USD, aop) 10,188 10,996 12,287 21,430 25,266 28,602 29,901 31,173 32,247 33,266External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 6.0 11.5 4.0 7.6 4.4 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4Current Account Balance (USD bn) 27.6 58.5 23.4 28.0 19.2 7.2 10.0 11.8 15.0 18.1Trade Balance (USD bn) 37.3 67.8 28.6 33.0 31.6 24.8 28.7 32.1 35.2 37.5Exports (USD bn) 112.8 145.8 97.3 93.0 94.1 87.5 96.0 105.5 116.6 129.9Imports (USD bn) 75.5 78.0 68.7 60.0 62.4 62.7 67.3 73.4 81.4 92.4Exports (annual variation in %) 27.7 29.3 -33.3 -4.4 1.1 -6.9 9.6 9.9 10.5 11.4Imports (annual variation in %) 9.0 3.4 -11.9 -12.6 4.0 0.5 7.3 9.1 10.8 13.6International Reserves (USD bn) 74.1 95.5 107.7 120.9 111.4 105.6 106.9 110.1 111.4 112.8International Reserves (months of imports) 11.8 14.7 18.8 24.2 21.4 20.2 19.1 18.0 16.4 14.7External Debt (USD bn) 22.8 17.3 7.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.5External Debt (% of GDP) 5.0 3.4 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0

FOCUSECONOMICS Iran


April 2015

Iran in the Region


Fact Sheet

Iran12.7%

Saudi Arabia21.9%

UAE12.3%Israel

9.2%

Egypt7.9%

Other36.0%

Iran20.5%

Egypt22.5%

Algeria10.2%

Iraq9.4%

Morocco8.7%

Other28.6%

Turkey11.9%

EU-2711.0%

Other Asia

ex-Japan6.1%

China13.9%

Korea7.5%

,

United Arab Emirates33.4%

Other16.3%

Turkey10.6%

Japan7.1%

EU-27

6.5%

China22.1%

India11.9%

Korea7.6%

Other34.3%

Other23.8%


Food14.1%

Other17.4%


Mineral Fuels70.5%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• UN sanctions • Political instability

• Low external debt

• Unfavorable business environment

• Second largest OPEC oil producer• World's second largest gas reserves

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 13,644Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 9,645Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 239.2Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 195.3Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 3,517.8Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 1,790CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 603.6



Transportation (2013) Airports: 319Railways (km): 8,442Roadways (km): 198,866Waterways (km): 850Chief Ports: Bandar Imam Khomeyni, Bandar Abbas

Official name: Islamic Republic of IranCapital: Tehran (8.3m)Other cities: Mashhad (2.7m)

Isfahan (1.8m)Area (km2): 1,648,195Population (million, 2014 est.): 78.0Population density (per km2, 2014): 47.3Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.2Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 70.9Illiteracy rate (%, 2012): 15.0Language: PersianMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+3:30

Supreme Leader: Ali KhameneiPresident: Hassan RouhaniLast elections: 14 June 2013Next elections: 2017Central Bank Governor: Valiollah Seif

FOCUSECONOMICS Iraq


April 2015

IraqOutlook deteriorates


Ricard TornéSenior Economist

Iraq

On 31 March, the Iraqi government announced that its forces, in conjunction with Shia militias, recaptured the city of Tikrit, which represents the first major success in the government’s fight against Islamic State (ISIL). Nevertheless, ISIL stills holds large swaths of the country, including the strategic city of Mosul. In addition to the impact of low oil prices, the country’s public coffers have been put under further strain from the recent slump in oil production due to bad weather in Iraq’s southern ports. In spite of the adverse setting, the country boosted crude exports to the highest level in 35 years in March.

Despite the military gains that have been made in recent weeks and the relatively-stable political environment, Iraq’s economic outlook remains fragile as ISIL still controls large areas of the country and low oil prices are weighing on government finances. FocusEconomics panelists cut their growth projections for 2015 by 0.3 percentage points to 3.2%. For 2016, the panel sees GDP expanding 5.1%.

Consumer prices rebounded in February, increasing 0.3% annually, which contrasted the 0.4% drop tallied in January. Weak economic growth and low global inflation are keeping inflationary pressures subdued. Going forward, however, panelists see average inflation rising to 3.6% in 2015 before picking up further to 4.6% in 2016.

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 33.7 37.0 40.4GDP (USD bn): 210 250 322GDP per capita (USD): 6,230 6,744 7,979GDP growth (%): 8.2 2.2 6.0Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 1.0 -5.2 0.3Public Debt (% of GDP): 34.6 39.3 31.5Inflation (%): 4.5 3.5 5.0Current Account (% of GDP): 12.5 -0.9 3.3External Debt (% of GDP): 29.0 25.4 21.8

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 31.7 32.7 33.7 34.8 35.9 37.0 38.1 39.2 40.3 41.5GDP per capita (USD) 4,384 5,684 6,406 6,600 6,459 6,720 7,052 7,484 7,944 8,509GDP (USD bn) 139 186 216 230 232 248 269 293 321 353GDP (IQD bn) 162,065 217,327 251,908 267,396 269,365 287,621 315,520 349,427 388,165 432,238Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 24.1 34.1 15.9 6.1 0.7 6.8 9.7 10.7 11.1 11.4Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 5.5 10.2 10.3 4.2 -1.5 3.2 5.1 5.8 6.1 6.2Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 1.3 9.6 12.0 1.4 9.0 7.7 6.4 6.4 6.6 7.1Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.6Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 15.2 15.2 15.1 16.0 14.9 14.4 13.5 12.9 12.4 11.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.2 4.7 4.1 -5.9 -4.6 -9.0 -1.9 -0.2 0.2 0.9Public Debt (% of GDP) 51.0 39.1 33.5 31.3 36.1 46.2 35.7 33.0 32.1 29.3Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 2.4 5.6 6.1 1.9 2.2 3.6 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.1CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.10 6.50 6.94 7.17 7.30Exchange Rate (IQD per USD, eop) 1,170 1,167 1,164 1,165 1,143 1,172 1,177 1,204 1,218 1,230Exchange Rate (IQD per USD, aop) 1,167 1,171 1,164 1,163 1,163 1,157 1,175 1,191 1,211 1,224External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 4.7 14.1 13.7 9.6 3.3 -5.4 -0.7 2.5 3.4 4.0Current Account Balance (USD bn) 6.5 26.1 29.5 22.1 7.7 -13.3 -1.9 7.2 10.8 14.1Trade Balance (USD bn) 8.6 34.3 37.4 28.6 28.6 11.5 27.3 38.5 48.2 52.7Exports (USD bn) 52.5 83.3 94.4 89.6 88.0 69.2 89.4 107.1 125.5 141.8Imports (USD bn) 43.9 49.0 57.0 61.0 59.4 57.7 62.1 68.6 77.4 89.2Exports (annual variation in %) 25.2 58.7 13.3 -5.1 -1.8 -21.4 29.3 19.8 17.2 13.0Imports (annual variation in %) 18.7 11.6 16.3 7.0 -2.7 -2.9 7.7 10.5 12.7 15.3International Reserves (USD bn) 50.6 61.0 70.3 77.7 67.3 59.4 57.9 66.3 75.9 88.3International Reserves (months of imports) 13.8 14.9 14.8 15.3 13.6 12.4 11.2 11.6 11.8 11.9External Debt (USD bn) 60.9 61.0 60.2 60.2 61.4 62.6 66.0 68.0 69.9 71.9External Debt (% of GDP) 43.9 32.9 27.9 26.2 26.5 25.2 24.6 23.2 21.8 20.4

FOCUSECONOMICS Iraq


April 2015




3

4

5

6

2015 2016


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015

Iraq MENA

World

3

4

5

6

2015 2016


Economic Indicators


-20

0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015

Iraq MENA

-30

-10

10

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

Iraq MENA


-6

-3

0

3

6

2015 2016


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Byblos Bank Group -0.6 - 4.0 - 6.00 - 1,166 - -6.5 -BofA Merrill Lynch 1.2 3.1 2.5 3.0 6.00 6.00 1,169 1,169 -9.2 -6.5Citigroup Global Mkts 6.0 4.2 5.0 5.0 - - 1,162 1,162 -12.9 -6.3EIU 3.2 8.6 2.4 3.4 6.00 6.50 1,166 1,166 -2.2 17.6Emirates NBD 6.9 8.9 - - - - - - - -Euler Hermes 2.5 6.5 - - - - - - - -Frontier Strategy Group 2.5 3.0 4.0 5.3 - - - - - -HSBC 1.7 1.5 - - 6.50 7.50 1,165 1,165 -10.7 -11.1JPMorgan 4.9 5.7 - - - - 1,200 1,200 -0.9 -0.4Oxford Economics 2.0 3.0 3.6 5.9 - - 1,184 1,213 -5.4 -5.2Quantrarian Capital Management 3.3 5.8 3.3 4.0 6.00 6.00 1,166 1,166 - -Standard Chartered 4.5 6.0 4.0 5.5 - - 1,170 - 5.0 7.0SummaryMinimum -0.6 1.5 2.4 3.0 6.00 6.00 1,162 1,162 -12.9 -11.1Maximum 6.9 8.9 5.0 5.9 6.50 7.50 1,200 1,213 5.0 17.6Median 2.9 5.7 3.8 5.0 6.00 6.25 1,166 1,166 -6.0 -5.2Consensus 3.2 5.1 3.6 4.6 6.10 6.50 1,172 1,177 -5.4 -0.7

variation in % var. in % % IQD per USD % of GDPReal GDP Prices (CPI) Interest Rate Exchange Rate Current Account

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real, monetary and external sector data are from the World Bank (WB) and the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: WB. 2 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: CBI. 3 Current acount balance as % of GDP. Source: WB.


last 4 months.

FOCUSECONOMICS Iraq


April 2015

Iraq in the Region


Fact Sheet

Iraq6.7%

Saudi Arabia21.9%

Iran12.7%

UAE12.3%

Israel9.2%

Other37.2%

Iraq9.4%

Egypt22.5%

Iran20.5%

Algeria10.2%

Morocco8.7%

Other28.6%

Turkey26.2%

EU-2712.5%

Other Asia

ex-Japan10.7%

China11.9%

,

MENA6.9%

Other31.9%

U.S.A.21.1%

EU-2717.1%

India20.2%

China13.6%

Korea11.0%

Other17.1%

Other29.9%

Machinery26.6%

Construction Materials

11.7%

Electronics10.9%

Food20.9%

Other22.6%

Mineral Fuels77.4%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002009 2011 2013

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Substantial oil wealth

• Dependence on hydrocarbons• Entitled to participate in aid and reconstruction programs from international institutions

• Civil war in a major part of the country

• Deep religious, political and ethnic divisions• Lower public and external debt

following restructuring

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 6,448Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,622Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 58.3Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 44.9Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 2,987Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 740CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 131


Telecommunication (2013) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 5.6Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 96.1Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 9.2Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): -

Transportation (2013) Airports: 102Railways (km): 2,370Roadways (km): 59,623Waterways (km): 5,279Chief Ports: Abuflus, Kour-Alzubiar, Umm Qasr

Official name: Republic of IraqCapital: Baghdad (9.5m)Other cities: Al Basra (3.8m)

Mosul (3.0m)Area (km2): 438,317Population (million, 2014 est.): 35.9Population density (per km2, 2014): 81.8Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 2.2Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 71.4Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 21.5Language: Arabic, KurdishMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+3

Prime Minister: Haider al-AbadiLast elections: 30 April 2014Next elections: 2018Central Bank Governor: Abdul Basit Turki Saeed

FOCUSECONOMICS Israel


April 2015

IsraelOutlook stable


Israel

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 7.7 8.2 8.8GDP (USD bn): 271 297 337GDP per capita (USD): 35,212 36,099 38,357GDP growth (%): 3.4 3.0 3.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.4 -2.9 -1.4Public Debt (% of GDP): 67.4 67.6 59.7Inflation (%): 2.2 0.7 2.0Current Account (% of GDP): 1.6 3.2 3.5External Debt (% of GDP): 36.8 34.1 33.7

GDP growth for Q4 2014 came in at 6.8% according to more detailed data, which is a downward revision from the previous estimate of 7.2%. Nevertheless, the increase marked a significant improvement over the previous quarter’s weak growth of just 0.2%. More recent data, however, point to a deceleration of the economy at the outset of the year. In February, the Bank of Israel Composite State of the Economy Index deteriorated and exports recorded the deepest contraction in four months. In the political sphere, the right-wing Likud party led by incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came in first in the 17 March snap elections, winning 30 seats in the next Parliament. After being officially designated as PM, Netanyahu has until the first weeks of May to negotiate with the other parties to form a coalition.

Israel’s economic prospects remain positive. However, geopolitical conflicts in the region could pose a risk to the growth outlook going forward. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 3.0% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel sees GDP growth picking up to 3.3%.

Consumer prices dropped 1.0% over the same month last year in February, which was down from January’s 0.5% drop. Despite growing deflation risks, the Bank of Israel decided to keep its policy rate at 0.10% on 23 March. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 0.1% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016.

POLITICS | Benjamin Netanyahu set to take on fourth term as PMThe right-wing Likud party led by incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won the 17 March snap elections with a voter turnout of 72%, thus indicating no major changes in the direction of economic policymaking for the next four years. The Likud party secured 30 seats in the next parliament, or Knesset, which was a much better result than what had been foreseen in opinion polls. Isaac Herzog, Netanyahu’s main competitor and the leader of the left-wing Zionist Union, managed to win 24 seats—a result that was broadly in line with the pre-election ballots. Surprisingly, the Joint List union, an alliance of four Arab-dominated parties, took third place with 13 seats.

Israeli election procedures require the country’s president to consult with the leaders of all the parties elected in the next Knesset regarding which candidate they recommend to take the office of PM. Netanyahu’s strong support among the center-right leaning parties gave him an advantage over Herzog and President Reuven Rivlin officially designated Netanyahu Prime Minister late last month. Netanyahu now has until the first weeks of May to form a coalition government.

In the most likely scenario, the governing coalition will consist of the Likud party and the right-leaning Jewish Home and Yisrael Beiteinu parties, the


Percentage of votes

Note: Percentage of votes.Source: Israeli Central Elections Committee (ICEC)

Likud25.0%

Zionist Union20.0%

Joint List10.8%

Yesh Atid9.2%

Kulanu8.3%

The Jewish Home6.7%

Shas5.8%

Other14.2%



April 2015

ultra-orthodox United Torah Judaism and Shas parties, as well as the center-right Kulanu party. This combination will give Netanyahu control over 67 seats in the Knesset, which is above the 6 more seats than necessary for a majority. The new government can only take office after it secures a vote of confidence in Parliament.

Netanyahu’s continuation of leadership will likely not spell any major changes to the direction of economic policymaking. Matt Spivack, Israel analyst at Frontier Strategy Group comments:

Investors seem confident that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s victory ensures certainty on domestic policies, the budget in particular. For example, both energy and pharmaceutical stocks saw an uptick after the Likud victory. Energy is an important sector for investment given development of offshore oil resources. Pharmaceuticals are expected to benefit from the next budget, as health spending was a top priority entering the election campaign.

Conversely, more uncertainty is expected on issues regarding foreign policies. The PM’s recent hawkish statements on the creation of a Palestinian state could lead to a derailing of the peace process. In addition, the potential closure of a historic deal between the West and Iran could exacerbate relations between Israel and the Obama administration.

REAL SECTOR | Economic growth accelerates in Q4In Q4 2014, GDP increased 6.8% over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted annualized terms (SAAR), according to more detailed data. The expansion was slightly below the 7.2% increase reported in the preliminary estimate, but significantly overshot the 0.2% increase tallied in the previous quarter. Q4’s result marked the fastest expansion since Q1 2007. In the full year 2014, the economy grew 2.8%, which was revised down from the 2.9% expansion previously reported.

The expansion in the fourth quarter came on the back of an improvement in both domestic and external demand. Private consumption expanded 7.9% in Q4, which was up from the 5.1% increase tallied in the previous quarter. In addition, growth in government consumption jumped from 5.5% in Q3 to 8.5% in Q4. Fixed investment rebounded from a 6.1% contraction in the third quarter to a 9.9% expansion in the fourth quarter.

On the external front, exports of goods and services accelerated to a 12.7% increase in Q4, which was an improvement over the 1.3% rise seen in the third quarter. Contrary, imports contracted 2.9%, which contrasted the 14.9% increase tallied in the previous quarter. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth rebounded from minus 4.6 percentage points in the third quarter to plus 5.2 percentage points in the fourth quarter, which marked the highest level in a year.

In annual terms, GDP expanded 3.3% in Q4, which was down from the 3.6% expansion reported in the preliminary estimate and was an acceleration from Q3’s 1.9% expansion.

The Central Bank expects GDP to grow 3.2% in 2015 and 3.5% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists foresee the economy growing 3.0% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel projects that the economy will expand 3.3%.

Gross Domestic Product | variation in %

Note: Annual variation of GDP in %.Source: Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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April 2015

REAL SECTOR | BoI State of the Economy index slows slightly in FebruaryIn February, the Bank of Israel (BoI) Composite State of the Economy index increased 0.25% over the previous month, which was a slight deterioration over the revised 0.30% increase observed in January and marked the slowest increase in seven months. According to the Bank, “the index’s rate of increase in February was moderated by declines in import and export components and a decline in industrial production.”

On an annual basis, the State of the Economy index rose 2.9% in February, which matched January’s increase. January’s print had marked the fastest increase since February last year. The annual average variation in the index was also stable at January’s 2.5% in February.

MONETARY SECTOR | Consumer prices in February mark steepest fall in over seven yearsIn February, consumer prices fell 0.7% over the previous month, which was above the 0.9% drop tallied in January. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), February’s reading reflected lower prices for food and housing.

Consumer prices fell 1.0% in February over the same month last year, which was below the 0.5% decline registered in January and marked the sharpest fall since May 2007. As a result of February’s decline, annual average inflation continued the downward trend that began in June 2014, falling from 0.3% in January to 0.1% in February, thus reaching the lowest level since October 2007. Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile items such as oil and vegetables, were flat over the same month last year, which was below the 0.1% increase seen in January.

The Central Bank expects consumer prices to drop 0.1% in 2015 before increasing 1.7% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 0.1% in 2015, which is down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects inflation to average 1.6%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Bank of Israel decides not to change policy rate at latest meetingAt its 23 March monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Israel (BoI) decided to maintain the policy rate unchanged at 0.10%. The decision met market expectations. Last month, the Bank cut the policy rate by 15 basis points from 0.25% to 0.10% in order to bring the inflation rate within the target range.

The BoI commented that in the first quarter of the year, economic activity indicators paint a mixed picture of the economy. Foreign trade data indicate that exports remain weak. A slight recovery was recorded in tourism, however, the numbers of tourist arrivals remains significantly lower than in the corresponding period last year. On the other hand, data from the labor market point to a continued improvement. Labor Force Survey data for January show that the unemployment rate inched down by 0.1 percentage points and that real wages increased in seasonally-adjusted terms.

In February, consumer prices fell 0.7% over the same month last year. The Bank attributed the annual drop in consumer prices to lower electricity and energy prices as well as to a seasonal decline in prices for clothing and

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%

Monetary Policy Rate | in %

Note: Bank of Israel policy rate in %, eop.Source: Bank of Israel (BOI).


Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).

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State of the Economy | variation in %

Note: BOI’s Composite State of the Economy Index.Source: Bank of Israel (BOI).

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April 2015

footwear. The Monetary Committee said that the decision to keep the policy rate at 0.10%, “is intended to return the inflation rate to within the price stability target of 1-3 percent a year over the next twelve months, and to support growth while maintaining financial stability.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the base rate to end 2015 at 0.13%. For 2016, panelists see the policy rate ending the year at 0.93%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Trade surplus shrinks in FebruaryIn February, exports totaled USD 4.9 billion (January: USD 5.0 billion), according to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). The reading marked a 14.7% contraction over the same month last year, which was a deterioration over the 3.1% decline tallied in January.

Meanwhile, imports totaled USD 4.8 billion in February, which was slightly above the USD 4.7 billion registered in January. February’s reading marked a 18.1% decrease year-on-year, which followed the 24.3% drop tallied in January.

The trade balance recorded a USD 100 million surplus in February, which contrasted the USD 100 million deficit recorded in the same month last year. However, the figure came in below the USD 300 million surplus observed in the previous month.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to expand 4.1% in 2015. For next year, the panel expects exports to expand 6.6%.

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Trade Balance (USD bn, left scale)Exports (yoy, right scale)Imports (yoy, right scale)

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).



April 2015


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0GDP per capita (USD) 30,430 36,060 32,961 36,614 39,407 34,350 34,540 36,236 38,271 40,565GDP (USD bn) 224 272 254 288 317 282 290 311 336 364GDP (ILS bn) 871 925 992 1,049 1,087 1,117 1,171 1,235 1,306 1,387Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 7.3 6.2 7.3 5.8 3.6 3.2 4.9 5.4 5.8 6.2Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 5.8 4.2 3.0 3.2 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.0Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.7 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.6 3.8 4.0Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 10.3 14.5 3.2 1.1 -2.6 3.9 4.2 4.9 5.4 5.8Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 9.5 2.1 4.0 0.5 1.2 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.6 5.6 6.8 6.3 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.5 -3.1 -3.9 -3.2 -2.8 -3.2 -2.8 -2.0 -1.4 -0.8Public Debt (% of GDP) 69.6 68.4 67.3 66.5 67.4 68.1 67.3 63.2 59.7 56.2Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.8 -0.2 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 2.7 3.5 1.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2BoI Interest Rate (%, eop) 2.00 2.75 1.75 1.00 0.25 0.13 0.93 1.47 1.66 1.853-Month TELBOR (%, eop) 2.19 2.58 1.69 0.93 0.25 0.50 1.63 2.35 2.96 3.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 4.97 4.72 4.00 4.05 2.57 2.25 2.84 3.55 4.41 5.27Exchange Rate (ILS per USD, eop) 3.55 3.82 3.73 3.47 3.89 4.08 4.03 3.94 3.87 3.79Exchange Rate (ILS per USD, aop) 3.73 3.58 3.86 3.61 3.58 3.97 4.05 3.98 3.91 3.83External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 3.5 1.4 0.8 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.7Current Account Balance (USD bn) 7.9 3.9 2.1 6.9 9.0 9.4 9.6 10.3 11.7 13.3Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.9 -8.1 -9.7 -9.3 -8.7 -7.8 -8.4 -7.8 -6.2 -3.3Exports (USD bn) 56.4 64.3 62.0 62.0 62.3 64.9 69.2 75.9 85.0 97.0Imports (USD bn) 58.3 72.4 71.8 71.3 71.1 72.7 77.5 83.7 91.2 100.3Exports (annual variation in %) 20.5 14.0 -3.5 -0.1 0.6 4.1 6.6 9.7 12.0 14.2Imports (annual variation in %) 26.6 24.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.3 2.3 6.7 7.9 9.0 10.0International Reserves (USD bn) 70.9 74.9 75.9 81.8 86.1 91.8 94.9 103.5 112.7 121.9International Reserves (months of imports) 14.6 12.4 12.7 13.8 14.5 15.2 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.6External Debt (USD bn) 107.8 105.6 97.5 95.4 97.6 100.7 104.4 107.9 113.5 119.2External Debt (% of GDP) 48.1 38.8 38.4 33.1 30.8 35.6 36.0 34.7 33.8 32.8 Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.9 3.3 2.4 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5Economic Growth (GDP, qoq saar in %) 0.2 6.8 - - - - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.9BoI Interest Rate (%, eop) 0.25 0.25 0.10 0.19 0.21 0.13 0.53 0.81 0.94 0.933-Month TELBOR (%, eop) 0.21 0.25 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.50 1.03 1.23 1.56 1.6310-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.60 2.57 1.75 1.43 1.78 2.25 3.03 3.20 3.21 2.84Exchange Rate (ILS per USD, eop) 3.70 3.89 3.98 3.95 3.95 4.08 4.00 3.99 4.06 4.03Exchange Rate (ILS per USD, aop) 3.52 3.83 3.95 3.97 3.95 4.02 4.04 4.00 4.03 4.04

Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15BoI State of the Economy Index (mom var. in %) 0.08 0.10 0.28 0.40 0.34 0.39 0.49 0.30 0.25 -Consumer Confidence Index -24.5 -26.7 -26.3 -25.1 -25.3 -25.2 -28.2 -22.7 -21.2 -Business Confidence Index 6.2 -6.0 -8.6 -1.7 0.1 -0.8 0.6 1.1 0.3 -Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.9 -0.7 -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -1.0 -Exchange Rate (ILS per USD, eop) 3.44 3.43 3.57 3.70 3.78 3.89 3.89 3.92 3.97 3.98Merchandise Exports (annual var. in %) 0.7 11.8 -3.0 18.8 -16.7 -0.3 -4.9 -3.1 -14.7 -Merchandise Imports (annual var. in %) 5.1 -0.8 6.7 3.7 -13.9 -6.2 1.7 -24.3 -18.1 -



April 2015

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %


5 | Consumption | variation in % 6 | Consumption | evolution of fcst

2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP, year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %.6 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.7 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. 8 Unemployment, % of active population.9 General government balance as % of GDP.10 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.11 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 General government balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

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2000 2005 2010 2015

Israel MENA

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Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

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2015 2016

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Israel MENA

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Bank Hapoalim 3.0 3.0Bank Leumi 3.5 3.8BofA Merrill Lynch 3.3 3.3Citigroup Global Mkts 2.4 2.8Credit Suisse 3.2 3.5EIU 3.5 3.9Euler Hermes 3.5 3.5Frontier Strategy Group 2.6 2.8Goldman Sachs 2.5 3.4HSBC 3.4 3.4ING 2.6 3.4JPMorgan 3.0 3.0Julius Baer 3.0 3.5Nomura 2.6 3.0Oxford Economics 3.5 3.6UBS 3.0 3.2SummaryMinimum 2.4 2.8Maximum 3.5 3.9Median 3.0 3.4Consensus 3.0 3.3History30 days ago 3.0 3.360 days ago 2.9 3.390 days ago 2.9 3.3Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Mar. 2015) 3.2 3.5IMF (Oct. 2014) 2.8 3.2



April 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Bank Hapoalim 3.0 - 3.5 - 6.2 - -3.5 - 70.0 -Bank Leumi 3.7 3.4 3.6 7.8 5.6 5.6 -2.6 -2.4 68.5 67.6BofA Merrill Lynch - - - - - - -3.4 -3.0 69.7 69.4Citigroup Global Mkts 3.0 2.8 6.5 2.5 5.5 5.8 -3.3 -2.5 - -Credit Suisse 2.9 2.8 4.0 3.5 - - -3.0 -3.4 68.0 69.0EIU 4.6 3.7 1.0 4.0 5.3 5.0 -2.7 -2.2 64.6 62.7Euler Hermes - - - - - - - - - -Frontier Strategy Group 3.1 3.2 - - 5.7 5.7 - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - - -HSBC 3.6 2.5 6.4 2.0 5.8 5.8 -3.5 -3.0 68.5 68.0ING - - - - 6.5 6.1 -3.7 -3.1 67.4 66.4JPMorgan - - - - - - -3.2 -3.0 - -Julius Baer - - - - - - - - - -Nomura - - - - - - -3.3 -2.8 - -Oxford Economics 4.0 3.4 3.5 5.2 5.8 5.9 -2.5 -2.6 - -UBS 3.5 3.5 2.5 4.5 5.8 5.7 -3.5 -2.8 68.0 68.0SummaryMinimum 2.9 2.5 1.0 2.0 5.3 5.0 -3.7 -3.4 64.6 62.7Maximum 4.6 3.7 6.5 7.8 6.5 6.1 -2.5 -2.2 70.0 69.4Median 3.5 3.3 3.6 4.0 5.8 5.8 -3.3 -2.8 68.2 68.0Consensus 3.5 3.2 3.9 4.2 5.8 5.7 -3.2 -2.8 68.1 67.3History30 days ago 3.3 2.6 3.9 4.1 6.1 5.9 -3.2 -2.8 68.2 67.460 days ago 3.2 2.7 3.9 4.2 6.1 6.0 -3.2 -2.8 68.6 68.290 days ago 3.0 3.3 4.1 4.7 6.3 6.2 -3.4 -2.9 68.5 68.0

Fiscal Balance Public Debt % of GDP % of GDP

Consumption Investment Unemploymentvariation in % variation in % % of active pop.

11 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst

8 | Unemployment | % of active pop.


9 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

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7.0


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2015 2016

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7 | Investment | variation in %

10 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

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April 2015

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Inflation | annual avg. var. of consumer price index in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) and the Bank of Israel (BoI). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 15 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) of %. Source: CBS.16 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: CBS.17 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.19 Wholesale prices, annual variation in % (aop). 2000-2014. Source: CBS.20 Money, annual variation of M2 in %. 2000-2014. Source: BoI.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Bank Hapoalim - -Bank Leumi -0.6 1.6BofA Merrill Lynch -0.2 1.6Citigroup Global Mkts -0.7 0.1Credit Suisse 0.5 1.8EIU -0.9 2.2Euler Hermes - -Frontier Strategy Group 0.8 1.0Goldman Sachs 0.6 1.8HSBC 0.0 1.4ING -0.2 1.9JPMorgan 0.1 1.6Julius Baer - -Nomura 0.9 1.7Oxford Economics 0.9 2.3UBS 0.4 1.5SummaryMinimum -0.9 0.1Maximum 0.9 2.3Median 0.1 1.6Consensus 0.1 1.6History30 days ago 0.6 1.860 days ago 0.6 1.790 days ago 0.8 1.6Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Mar. 2015) -0.1 1.7IMF (Oct. 2014) 1.8 2.0

15 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %


19 | Wholesale Prices | variation in %

16 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %


20 | Money | variation in %

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2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

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April 2015

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate

Interest Rate and Exchange Rate

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), the Bank of Israel (BoI) and Thomson Reuters. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 23 BoI Interest Rate in % (eop). Source: BoI.24 Quarterly BoI Interest Rate in % (eop). Source: BoI.25 Interest rate, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.26 Interest rate, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, ILS per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.28 Quarterly exchange rate, ILS per USD (eop). Source: Thomson

Reuters.29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BoI.32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: CBS.33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: BoI.34 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016

forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: CBS.36 International reserves in USD bn, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts

during the last 18 months.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Bank Hapoalim 0.10 0.50 4.00 4.00Bank Leumi 0.25 1.75 3.96 3.84BofA Merrill Lynch 0.10 0.75 4.00 4.00Citigroup Global Mkts 0.00 0.50 4.14 3.94Credit Suisse 0.50 1.25 4.10 4.10EIU - - 4.02 3.87Euler Hermes - - - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs 0.10 1.00 4.25 4.30HSBC -0.10 0.50 4.30 4.30ING 0.25 1.25 4.00 3.95JPMorgan 0.10 1.25 4.20 -Julius Baer - - - -Nomura 0.00 0.50 4.10 4.00Oxford Economics - - 3.90 3.98UBS - - - -SummaryMinimum -0.10 0.50 3.90 3.84Maximum 0.50 1.75 4.30 4.30Median 0.10 0.88 4.06 4.00Consensus 0.13 0.93 4.08 4.03History30 days ago 0.21 1.06 4.03 3.9860 days ago 0.34 1.16 4.00 3.9790 days ago 0.59 1.54 3.95 3.91

Interest Rate Exchange Rate% ILS per USD

23 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %

25 | Int. Rate 2015 | evolution of fcst

27 | Exchange Rate | ILS per USD

29 | ILS per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst

24 | Interest Rate | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %

26 | Int. Rate 2016 | evolution of fcst

28 | Exchange Rate | ILS per USD

30 | ILS per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

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April 2015

External Sector | Current Account, Trade and International Reserves

34 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

31 | Current Account | % of GDP

35 | Exports | variation in %

32 | Trade Balance | USD billion

36 | Int. Reserves (USD bn) | evol. of fcst

33 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


2015 2016

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Israel MENA

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015

Israel MENA

-50

0

50

100

150

2000 2005 2010 2015

Trade BalanceExportsImports

80

90

100

110


2015 2016

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2005 2010 2015

Israel MENA

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Bank Hapoalim 2.0 - - - - - - - - -Bank Leumi 3.7 3.4 - - - - - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 3.2 2.9 -7.6 -9.3 63.6 66.1 71.2 75.4 92.1 93.0Citigroup Global Mkts 4.3 4.9 -10.4 -10.7 64.5 66.5 74.9 77.1 95.0 100.0Credit Suisse 4.0 4.2 - - - - - - 92.0 96.0EIU 5.2 4.5 -2.1 -2.7 63.6 67.7 65.7 70.4 89.2 97.1Euler Hermes - - -5.0 -6.0 62.0 67.0 67.0 73.0 - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - - - - - - - -Goldman Sachs 3.1 3.0 - - - - - - - -HSBC 2.2 1.7 -11.4 -11.1 67.2 70.3 78.6 81.4 95.0 92.0ING 2.7 2.6 -9.3 -9.1 68.1 74.5 77.4 83.6 - -JPMorgan - - - - - - - - - -Julius Baer - - - - - - - - - -Nomura 2.5 2.5 - - - - - - - -Oxford Economics 2.8 2.7 -8.7 -9.6 65.2 72.2 73.9 81.8 87.2 91.3UBS 4.2 3.9 - - - - - - - -SummaryMinimum 2.0 1.7 -11.4 -11.1 62.0 66.1 65.7 70.4 87.2 91.3Maximum 5.2 4.9 -2.1 -2.7 68.1 74.5 78.6 83.6 95.0 100.0Median 3.2 3.0 -8.7 -9.3 64.5 67.7 73.9 77.1 92.1 94.5Consensus 3.3 3.3 -7.8 -8.4 64.9 69.2 72.7 77.5 91.8 94.9History30 days ago 2.9 3.0 -7.7 -6.9 67.9 72.9 75.5 79.8 91.1 95.060 days ago 2.9 2.9 -7.9 -7.2 68.2 73.2 76.1 80.4 91.7 97.290 days ago 2.6 2.8 -7.9 -8.9 67.2 71.9 75.1 80.8 93.1 98.4

% of GDP USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bnCurrent Account Trade Balance Exports Imports Int. Reserves



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Israel in the Region


Israel9.2%

Saudi Arabia21.9%

Iran12.7%

UAE12.3%

Egypt7.9%

Other36.0%

Israel2.1%

Egypt22.5%

Iran20.5%

Algeria10.2%

Iraq9.4%

Other35.3%

U.S.A.12.9%

Switzerland5.5%

Other EU-27

28.0%

Germany6.3%

Other Asia ex-Japan

9.5%

China7.3%

,

Other30.4%

U.S.A.27.8%

Other EU-27

21.5%U.K.5.7%

Other Asia ex-Japan

14.0%

Hong Kong7.7%

Other23.2%

Other3.4%


Mineral Fuels19.4%

Food7.2%

Other7.0%


Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Open and diversified economy• OECD membership since 2010• Highly educated work force

• Large public debt

• Political fragmentation

• Stagnation on peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians

• Insecurity undermining economic potential

• Political and financial support from the US• Natural gas production since mid-2013 from offshore reserves

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 95Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,044Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 59.2Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 53.1Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 6.1Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 280CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 80.4

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: A1 StableS&P: A+ StableFitch Ratings: A Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 47Railways (km): 975Roadways (km): 18,566Waterways (km): -Chief Ports: Ashdod, Elat, Hadera, Haifa

Official name: State of IsraelCapital: Jerusalem (0.7m)Other cities: Haifa (0.27m)

Tel Aviv (0.25m)Area (km2): 20,770Population (million, 2014 est.): 8.04Population density (per km2, 2014): 387Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.5Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 81.3Illiteracy rate (%, 2004): 2.9Language: Hebrew, ArabicMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+3

Prime Minister Benjamin NetanyahuLast elections: 17 March 2015Next elections: 2019Central Bank Governor: Karnit Flug

FOCUSECONOMICS Jordan


April 2015

JordanOutlook improves


Carl KellyEconomist

Jordan

GDP increased 3.3% annually in the final quarter of last year, which marked an improvement over the 3.1% growth tallied in Q3. Low oil prices have eased fiscal strain and provided relief to the economy. Jordan imports around 95% of the energy it needs and such purchases represent roughly 40% of the government’s budget. Meanwhile, Jordan continues to feel the pressure of an influx of more than 1 million refugees fleeing the armed conflict in neighboring Syria. Jordan recently closed down the Nasib Border Crossing due to ongoing clashes and looting on the Syrian side of this shared free-trade zone. The border closure is expected to significantly choke trade and economic activity in the area.

A reduced energy bill should benefit the economy in the near term, although spillover effects from the conflicts in Syria and Iraq are persistent sources of concern. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 3.6% in 2015. For 2016, the panel sees the economy expanding 3.9%.

Consumer prices swung from a 0.2% annual increase in January to a 1.7% decline in February, amid a steep drop in transport prices. FocusEconomics panelists see average inflation at 2.4% in 2015 and expect it to rise to 3.4% in 2016.

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 6.4 6.8 7.3GDP (USD bn): 31 38 47GDP per capita (USD): 4,861 5,574 6,422GDP growth (%): 2.7 3.5 4.1Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -6.8 -3.4 -3.8Public Debt (% of GDP): 73.7 88.5 84.6Inflation (%): 4.5 2.9 3.3Current Account (% of GDP): -12.0 -5.4 -5.1External Debt (% of GDP) 62.9 65.9 61.2

Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.5GDP per capita (USD) 4,323 4,612 4,836 5,134 5,352 5,547 5,822 6,113 6,415 6,738GDP (USD bn) 26.4 28.8 30.9 33.6 35.8 38.0 40.8 43.8 47.0 50.5GDP (JOD bn) 18.8 20.5 22.0 23.9 25.4 26.8 28.8 30.9 33.2 35.7Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 10.9 9.1 7.3 8.6 6.6 6.0 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.2Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -3.1 -0.3 0.2 1.6 1.7 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 12.5 12.9 12.2 12.6 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.5Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.6 -6.8 -8.3 -5.5 -2.3 -4.0 -3.8 -3.8 -3.7 -3.7Public Debt (% of GDP) 61.1 65.5 75.5 80.1 88.9 89.3 87.3 85.9 84.4 83.5Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 11.4 8.0 -5.1 16.3 9.0 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.8 4.2 4.5 4.8 2.9 2.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3Rediscount Rate (%, eop) 4.25 4.50 5.00 4.50 4.25 4.50 4.75 4.75 5.00 5.00Exchange Rate (JOD per USD, eop) 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -7.1 -10.3 -15.3 -10.3 -6.8 -4.4 -5.0 -5.1 -5.1 -5.2Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.9 -3.0 -4.7 -3.5 -2.4 -1.7 -2.0 -2.2 -2.4 -2.6Trade Balance (USD bn) -6.8 -8.8 -10.6 -11.7 -11.8 -10.7 -11.4 -12.0 -12.7 -13.4Exports (USD bn) 7.0 8.0 7.9 7.9 8.4 9.0 9.6 10.2 10.8 11.5Imports (USD bn) 13.9 16.9 18.5 19.6 20.2 19.8 21.0 22.2 23.5 24.8Exports (annual variation in %) 10.3 13.8 -1.4 0.2 6.0 7.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.0Imports (annual variation in %) 9.4 21.6 9.6 6.0 3.2 -2.2 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7International Reserves (USD bn) 13.1 11.5 8.1 13.2 15.0 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.6International Reserves (months of imports) 11.3 8.2 5.3 8.1 8.9 9.7 9.1 8.6 8.2 8.0External Debt (USD bn) 16.7 17.4 18.6 22.9 24.2 25.0 26.1 27.9 28.6 29.8External Debt (% of GDP) 63.3 60.2 60.2 68.0 67.6 65.9 64.0 63.7 60.8 58.9



April 2015

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real, monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ), and the Department of Statistics (DoS). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: CBJ. 2 Inflation, annual variation of consumer prices index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: DoS. 3 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: CBJ. .




3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

2015 2016


-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Jordan MENA

World

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.8

2015 2016


Economic Indicators


-16

-8

0

8

16

2000 2005 2010 2015

Jordan MENA

-40

-20

0

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Jordan MENA


-7

-6

-5

-42015 2016


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Byblos Bank Group 3.3 - -3.9 - 2.6 - -5.2 - 17.6 -Capital Economics 3.0 3.0 - - 1.5 3.0 -6.0 -6.0 - -Citigroup Global Mkts 3.8 4.3 -3.5 -3.6 3.1 4.2 -4.5 -6.0 - -EIU 4.2 4.8 - - 1.1 3.0 -1.0 -4.1 15.9 16.5Emirates NBD 3.3 3.5 -4.4 -3.9 5.0 5.0 - - - -Euler Hermes 3.5 3.5 - - - - - - - -HSBC 3.0 3.3 -4.7 -4.5 1.7 2.1 -3.0 -2.7 16.7 17.7Oxford Economics 4.0 4.5 -3.7 -3.3 1.0 2.8 -5.2 -5.5 13.4 13.5Standard Chartered 4.0 4.2 - - 3.5 4.0 -6.0 -5.5 - -SummaryMinimum 3.0 3.0 -4.7 -4.5 1.0 2.1 -6.0 -6.0 13.4 13.5Maximum 4.2 4.8 -3.5 -3.3 5.0 5.0 -1.0 -2.7 17.6 17.7Median 3.5 3.9 -3.9 -3.8 2.2 3.0 -5.2 -5.5 16.3 16.5Consensus 3.6 3.9 -4.0 -3.8 2.4 3.4 -4.4 -5.0 15.9 15.9

variation in % % of GDP var. in % % of GDP USD bnReal GDP Fiscal Balance Prices (CPI) Current Account Int. Reserves


last 4 months.



April 2015

Jordan in the Region


Fact Sheet

Jordan1.0%

Saudi Arabia21.9%

Iran12.7%

UAE12.3%Israel

9.2%

Other42.9%

Jordan1.8%

Egypt22.5%

Iran20.5%

Algeria10.2%

Iraq9.4%

Other35.6%

U.S.A.6.6%

EU-2717.5%

Other Asia

ex-Japan8.8%

China9.6%

Other MENA11.1%

Saudi Arabia23.5%

Other22.8%

U.S.A.16.6%

Other Asia ex-Japan

8.7%

India10.7%

Other MENA17.7%

Iraq15.1%

Saudi Arabia11.0%

Other20.2%

Other5.1%


Mineral Fuels27.9%

Food16.6%

Other0.8%


Ores & Metals10.6%

Food17.4%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-40

0

40

80

120

1602004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Well-developed banking sector

• Vulnerable to regional geopolitical instability• Public finance imbalances despite foreign aid• Dependence on imported energy and food

• Support from the U.S. and Gulf Arab states

• High production of potash and phosphates

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 9Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 251Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 15.6Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 13.9Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 0.2Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 109CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 16.9

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: B1 StableS&P: BB- StableFitch Ratings: - -


Transportation (2013) Airports: 18Railways (km): 507Roadways (km): 7,203Waterways (km): -Chief Ports: Aqabah

Official name:

Capital: Amman (4.1m)Other cities: Zarqa (0.7m)

Irbid (0.3m)Area (km2): 89,342Population (million, 2014 est.): 6.7Population density (per km2, 2014): 75Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 3.9Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 74.1Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 4.1Language: ArabicMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+3

Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan

Head of State: King Abdullah IIPrime Minister: Abdullah EnsourLast elections: 23 January 2013Next elections: 31 December 2017Central Bank Governor: Ziad Fariz

FOCUSECONOMICS Kuwait


April 2015

KuwaitOutlook deteriorates


Robert HillEconomist

Kuwait

Low oil prices are pressuring Kuwait to diversify its economy and seek out revenue from other sources. Despite being well-cushioned financially, oil and fuel products make up around 92% of exports, therefore there is concern in the Gulf state regarding the fact that oil revenues are declining and public expenditure is increasing. The impact of the situation is already being felt; analysts at the National Bank of Kuwait reported that the budget surplus fell by 26% during the Kuwaiti fiscal year, which runs from April to March. Last month, Kuwait sought assistance from the IMF in an effort to introduce corporate taxes and improve FDI in a country that bans foreign ownership of natural resources.

Progress in diversifying the Kuwaiti economy will be crucial going forward, as analysts expect oil prices to remain subdued for the coming years. Kuwait’s efforts in opening up the economy are promising, however, much depends on how and when the plans are actually implemented. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 1.9% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2016, they see GDP growing 2.3%.

Inflation inched up from 2.8% in January to 2.9% in February. Inflation has been between 2.7% and 3.2% since the end of 2013, indicating a stable inflationary environment. Panelists see inflation averaging 3.2% in 2015 and 3.4% in 2016.

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 3.8 4.1 4.5GDP (USD bn): 168 191 227GDP per capita (USD): 44,339 46,361 50,757GDP growth (%): 5.9 2.1 3.0Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 29.9 8.8 9.9Inflation (%): 3.4 3.2 3.7Current Account (% of GDP): 42.5 20.1 20.4External Debt (% of GDP): 20.1 17.5 16.1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6GDP per capita (USD) 31,673 42,098 45,984 44,935 45,935 45,760 47,387 48,635 50,485 53,151GDP (USD bn) 113 155 174 175 184 188 200 211 225 244GDP (KDW bn) 33.1 42.5 48.7 49.9 52.4 55.1 58.2 61.8 66.0 70.7Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 8.5 28.5 14.6 2.3 5.0 5.1 5.7 6.2 6.9 7.1Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) -2.4 9.6 6.6 1.5 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.3Private Consumption (annual var. in %) -11.1 2.8 8.3 2.4 4.5 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.7Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 0.0 7.5 13.6 10.5 - - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 19.8 -2.3 5.1 6.2 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 5.2Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 24.1 34.5 33.2 21.9 17.8 3.0 5.6 9.2 9.5 11.0Public Debt (% of GDP) 11.3 8.5 6.8 6.2 5.2 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.7Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.0 4.8 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.8 3.8Discount Rate (%, eop) 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.38 3.25 3.31 3.34 3.36Exchange Rate (KWD per USD, eop) 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.29 0.29External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 31.8 42.7 45.2 39.7 32.0 12.2 16.2 20.1 20.3 20.9Current Account Balance (USD bn) 36.1 66.1 78.7 69.4 58.8 22.9 32.4 42.4 45.7 51.1Trade Balance (USD bn) 46.8 80.8 95.4 89.5 76.5 37.2 45.6 51.7 56.5 60.1Exports (USD bn) 66.0 103.5 119.6 115.2 104.4 65.6 75.7 84.5 91.3 97.0Imports (USD bn) 19.2 22.7 24.2 25.7 27.8 28.4 30.1 32.9 34.8 36.8Exports (annual variation in %) 21.2 56.8 15.6 -3.7 -9.4 -37.1 15.5 11.6 8.0 6.2Imports (annual variation in %) 3.8 18.2 6.6 6.1 8.3 2.0 6.1 9.1 5.8 5.9International Reserves (USD bn) 21.4 25.9 29.0 29.5 32.2 33.2 34.5 36.2 37.1 38.4International Reserves (months of imports) 13.3 13.7 14.4 13.8 13.9 14.0 13.7 13.2 12.8 12.5External Debt (USD bn) 41.1 35.0 30.0 36.0 35.3 32.0 32.9 34.3 36.1 39.0External Debt (% of GDP) 36.2 22.6 17.2 20.6 19.2 17.0 16.4 16.3 16.0 16.0



April 2015

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real, monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank of Kuwait (CBK) and the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: CBK. 2 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: CSB. 3 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: CBK.




1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2015 2016


-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

KuwaitMENAWorld

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

2015 2016


Economic Indicators


0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

KuwaitMENA

0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2005 2010 2015

Kuwait

MENA


10

15

20

25

30

2015 2016


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BNP Paribas 1.7 1.8 14.0 18.0 3.5 3.5 - - 18.0 23.0Capital Economics 1.5 1.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 - - 9.0 9.0Citigroup Global Mkts 2.1 2.2 -8.6 -0.4 3.5 3.5 - - 7.6 13.1Credit Agricole 1.8 2.0 - - 2.8 3.6 - - 7.8 17.1EIU 1.8 2.0 8.7 15.7 2.4 3.2 0.30 0.30 12.0 20.4Emirates NBD 1.8 3.4 -8.4 -3.0 3.5 3.6 0.30 - 17.3 20.4Euler Hermes 2.5 3.0 - - - - - - - -HSBC 2.5 2.5 19.7 2.0 2.8 2.8 0.29 0.29 11.7 12.2Jadwa Investment 1.8 2.2 8.9 9.7 3.2 3.2 0.28 0.28 19.4 22.5JPMorgan 1.3 1.4 -2.9 7.4 3.4 3.3 0.30 0.30 9.5 12.7National Bank of Kuwait 1.0 2.3 -5.2 0.2 3.5 3.5 - - - -Oxford Economics 1.5 2.0 -0.3 2.6 2.7 3.0 0.28 0.28 11.7 12.6Standard Chartered 4.0 3.8 - - 3.6 3.5 0.30 - 10.0 15.0SummaryMinimum 1.0 1.4 -8.6 -3.0 2.4 2.8 0.28 0.28 7.6 9.0Maximum 4.0 3.8 19.7 18.0 3.6 3.6 0.30 0.30 19.4 23.0Median 1.8 2.2 1.9 3.3 3.5 3.5 0.30 0.29 11.7 15.0Consensus 1.9 2.3 3.0 5.6 3.2 3.4 0.29 0.29 12.2 16.2

variation in % var. in %% of GDP KWD per USD % of GDPReal GDP Prices (CPI)Fiscal Balance Exchange Rate Current Account


last 4 months.



April 2015

Kuwait in the Region


Fact Sheet

Kuwait5.3%

Saudi Arabia21.9%

Iran12.7%

UAE12.3%

Israel9.2%

Other38.6%

Kuwait1.1%

Egypt22.5%

Iran20.5%

Algeria10.2%

Iraq9.4%

Other36.3%

U.S.A.11.3%

Japan7.9%

EU-2720.2%

Other Asia

ex-Japan9.2%

China8.8%

Korea6.6%

,

Other MENA14.0%

Saudi Arabia8.2%

Other13.8%

Japan13.4%

U.S.A.11.7%

EU-27

5.4%

Other Asia ex-Japan

8.3%

Korea16.1%

India15.7%

China9.2%

MENA5.4%

Other14.9%

Other4.2%


Food14.0%

Other3.6%

Mineral Fuels96.4%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2005-07 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Significant oil reserves

• Welfare state

• Low investment ratio and international competitiveness• Political barriers to structural reforms

• Solid financial position, with notable public and external accounts surpluses• Large Kuwait Investment Authority sovereign fund

• High dependence on oil revenues and low degree of diversification


Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aa2 StableS&P: AA StableFitch Ratings: AA Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 7Railways (km): -Roadways (km): 6,608Waterways (km): -Chief Ports: Shuaiba, Shuwaikh

Official name: State of KuwaitCapital: Kuwait City (0.6m)Other cities: As Salimiyah (0.15m)

Sabah as Salim (0.14m)Area (km2): 17,818Population (million, 2014 est.): 4.0Population density (per km2, 2014): 224Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.7Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 77.6Illiteracy rate (%, 2008): 6.1Language: ArabicMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+3

Head of State: Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-SabahPrime Minister: Jaber Al-Mubarak Al-Hamad Al-SabahLast elections: 27 July 2013Next elections: 31 July 2017Central Bank Governor: Mohammad Y. Al-Hashel

FOCUSECONOMICS Lebanon


April 2015

LebanonOutlook improves



Lebanon

In 2014, the Lebanese economy slowed down as a result of political tensions and spillover effects from the civil war in Syria. GDP grew 2.0% last year, which marked a deterioration from the 3.0% growth observed in the previous year. According to a recent report from the Central Bank, despite the challenging environment, the country’s banking sector remained strong and liquid last year, thus retaining significant capacity to finance the government’s needs. In more recent news, the closure of the last open border between Syria and Jordan is expected to weigh heavily on Lebanese exports as it will deny land access to its main trading countries. As a result, the Lebanese factories will shift to shipping their products in order to reach trading partners, particularly the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

Looking forward, the drop in oil prices is expected to support domestic consumption and provide some relief to Lebanon’s current account and fiscal deficits. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 2.2% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel expects growth of 2.8%.

Consumer prices dropped 3.0% year-on-year in February (January:

-3.8% year-on-year), thus marking the third consecutive month of falling annual consumer prices. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 2.1% in 2015 and 3.2% in 2016.

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 4.4 4.6 4.7GDP (USD bn): 43.8 51.5 61.7GDP per capita (USD): 9,884 11,305 13,158GDP growth (%): 2.2 2.3 3.7Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -7.8 -8.2 -8.2Public Debt (% of GDP): 133 139 135Inflation (%): 5.5 2.4 3.0Current Account (% of GDP): -16.8 -16.2 -14.1External Debt (% of GDP): 54.3 59.6 65.1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7GDP per capita (USD) 8,892 9,113 9,996 10,543 10,857 11,254 11,804 12,433 13,135 13,905GDP (USD bn) 38.6 39.9 44.2 47.1 49.0 51.3 54.3 57.7 61.6 65.8GDP (LBP tn) 57.9 60.4 66.5 71.2 73.1 76.2 80.9 86.1 91.8 98.1Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 8.3 4.3 10.0 7.1 3.2 4.3 6.1 6.4 6.7 6.9Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 8.0 0.9 2.8 3.0 2.0 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.0Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.5 7.6 7.7 7.5 7.9 8.3 8.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -7.6 -5.9 -8.6 -8.9 -8.2 -8.3 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2Public Debt (% of GDP) 137 134 131 134 134 144 140 138 135 133Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.0 5.0 6.6 4.8 1.9 2.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9Repo Rate (%, eop) 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.13 10.63 10.63 10.63 10.63Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) 1,501 1,506 1,506 1,504 1,512 1,507 1,509 1,509 1,509 1,509External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -18.0 -9.1 -18.1 -23.1 -20.1 -14.3 -14.2 -14.0 -14.1 -14.2Current Account Balance (USD bn) -7.0 -3.6 -8.0 -10.9 -9.9 -7.3 -7.7 -8.1 -8.7 -9.4Trade Balance (USD bn) -12.3 -13.9 -14.7 -15.3 -16.6 -14.0 -14.5 -15.9 -17.2 -18.4Exports (USD bn) 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.2 4.5 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.7Imports (USD bn) 17.7 19.4 20.3 20.5 21.1 18.2 19.4 20.6 22.3 23.9Exports (annual variation in %) 15.9 -0.7 3.7 -7.9 -12.2 -7.9 15.5 7.7 4.4 4.2Imports (annual variation in %) 11.5 9.2 5.1 0.8 3.1 -13.9 6.4 6.6 7.9 7.3International Reserves (USD bn) 31.5 33.7 37.2 36.7 39.5 36.7 38.6 37.7 37.3 36.9International Reserves (months of imports) 21.3 20.9 21.9 21.5 22.5 24.2 23.9 21.9 20.1 18.5External Debt (USD bn) 20.6 20.9 24.4 26.1 25.6 32.3 34.5 37.5 40.1 42.8External Debt (% of GDP) 53.3 52.4 55.1 55.5 52.3 63.0 63.5 64.9 65.2 65.1



April 2015

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real, monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank of Lebanon (BDL, Banque du Liban) and the Central Administration of Statistics of Lebanon (CAS). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BDL. 4 GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.2 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: CAS. 5 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.3 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BDL. 6 Current account balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.




2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2015 2016


-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

LebanonMENAWorld

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2015 2016


Economic Indicators


-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Lebanon MENA

-30

-15

0

15

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

LebanonMENA


-15

-14

-13

-12

-11

-102015 2016


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Byblos Bank Group 2.0 - -8.2 - -0.6 - -15.3 - 35.5 -Capital Economics 2.0 2.0 -6.0 -6.0 0.0 2.5 -14.0 -14.0 - -Citigroup Global Mkts 1.5 2.0 -9.7 -9.8 0.9 2.5 -21.1 -20.1 - -Credit Agricole 3.2 3.5 - - 2.0 2.8 -9.8 -10.5 - -EIU 3.0 3.5 -6.4 -6.5 0.9 2.3 -9.5 -10.8 41.1 43.2Emirates NBD 1.7 3.1 -9.5 -8.7 6.0 5.0 -12.8 -12.6 38.4 42.6Euler Hermes 2.5 3.0 - - - - - - - -Frontier Strategy Group 2.1 2.3 - - 3.8 5.8 - - - -HSBC 1.0 1.9 -11.1 -10.8 2.5 2.5 -13.3 -12.4 36.0 38.2Julius Baer 2.5 3.5 - - 4.0 3.0 - - - -Oxford Economics 2.5 3.0 -7.3 -7.2 1.2 3.0 -21.9 -22.9 32.2 30.3Standard Chartered 2.2 3.5 - - 2.7 3.0 -11.0 -10.0 - -SummaryMinimum 1.0 1.9 -11.1 -10.8 -0.6 2.3 -21.9 -22.9 32.2 30.3Maximum 3.2 3.5 -6.0 -6.0 6.0 5.8 -9.5 -10.0 41.1 43.2Median 2.2 3.0 -8.2 -8.0 2.0 2.9 -13.3 -12.5 36.0 40.4Consensus 2.2 2.8 -8.3 -8.2 2.1 3.2 -14.3 -14.2 36.7 38.6

variation in % % of GDP USD bnReal GDP Fiscal Balance Prices (CPI) Current Account Int. Reserves

variation in % % of GDP



April 2015

Lebanon in the Region


Fact Sheet

Lebanon1.4%

Saudi Arabia21.9%

Iran12.8%

UAE12.3%Israel

9.2%

Other42.3%

Lebanon1.2%

Egypt22.5%

Iran20.5%

Algeria10.2%

Iraq9.4%

Other36.2%

U.S.A.11.2%

Other EU-27

17.7%

Italy8.6%

France7.2%

Germany5.6%

Other Asia ex-Japan

6.0%

China8.3%

MENA13.1%

Other22.2%

Switzerland12.2%

EU-279.9%

Other MENA15.4%

Saudi Arabia8.0%

United Arab Emirates

7.9%

South Africa19.3%

Other27.3%

Other3.3%


Mineral Fuels25.1%

Food16.4%

Other5.2%


Ores & Metals12.1%

Food17.7%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1402004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Robust banking system • Large public debt

• Support from international financial markets

• Political fragmentation with latent risk of civil war

• Discovery of offshore natural gas reserves

• High exposure to regional geopolitical tensions

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 9.0Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 234Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 14.0Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 12.9Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 0.0Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 105CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 16.4

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: B2 NegativeS&P: B- StableFitch Ratings: B Negative


Transportation (2013) Airports: 8Railways (km): 401Roadways (km): 6,970Waterways (km): -Chief Ports: Beirut, Tripoli

Official name: Lebanese RepublicCapital: Beirut (1.9m)Other cities: Tripoli (0.2m)

Sidon (0.1m)Area (km2): 10,400Population (million, 2014 est.): 4.5Population density (per km2, 2014): 434Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 9.4Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 77.2Illiteracy rate (%, 2007): 10.4Language: ArabicMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+3

Prime Minister: Tammam SalamLast elections: 7 June 2009Next elections: 2017Central Bank Governor: Riad T. Salamé

FOCUSECONOMICS Morocco


April 2015

MoroccoOutlook stable



Morocco

The head of Morocco’s High Commission for Planning (HCP) stated that the Moroccan economy had grown 4.4% in the first quarter of 2015 compared to the same period last year. This marked an improvement over last quarter’s growth of 1.8%. The expansion was due to a 12.3% increase in agricultural production, indicating that Morocco capitalized on favorable weather during the growing season. The non-agricultural sector increased 3.2%. Tourism-related activities and the hospitality sector saw declines as the number of foreign tourists visiting the country decreased. Morocco continues to enjoy a stable political climate and solid relations with the EU and the U.S., both of which are important contributors to Morocco’s FDI, export market and tourism sector.

Political stability, low oil prices and strong domestic demand are expected to support growth in the coming year. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to grow 4.4% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists see the economy expanding 4.6%.

Inflation fell from January’s 1.6% to 1.3% in February. At its quarterly meeting on March 24, the Central Bank stated that it would leave the key rate unchanged at 2.5%. Panelists expect inflation to average 1.3% in 2015 and 1.8% in 2016.

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 32.5 33.5 34.5GDP (USD bn): 100 103 117GDP per capita (USD): 3,069 3,070 3,395GDP growth (%): 4.0 3.8 4.9Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -6.2 -4.3 -3.4Public Debt (% of GDP): 58.7 67.0 66.7Inflation (%): 1.4 1.2 2.2Current Account (% of GDP): -8.5 -4.6 -4.8External Debt (% of GDP) 34.5 44.1 43.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 31.9 32.2 32.5 32.9 33.2 33.5 33.8 34.2 34.5 34.8GDP per capita (USD) 2,668 3,186 2,918 3,104 3,220 3,056 2,935 3,133 3,391 3,659GDP (USD bn) 85 103 95 102 107 102 99 107 117 127GDP (MAD bn) 764 803 827 873 902 953 1,013 1,084 1,161 1,243Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 4.3 5.0 3.1 5.5 3.3 5.7 6.3 6.9 7.1 7.1Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 3.6 5.0 2.7 4.4 2.5 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.9Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 2.2 7.4 3.7 3.7 2.7 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -0.7 2.5 1.6 0.2 1.7 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.1Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 2.0 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.9 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 9.1 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.9 9.4 8.9 8.9 8.7 8.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.7 -6.0 -7.0 -5.5 -5.0 -4.1 -3.6 -3.6 -3.5 -3.2Public Debt (% of GDP) 50.3 53.7 59.6 62.8 66.2 67.3 67.5 67.9 66.4 65.6Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M1 in %) 4.6 6.8 4.3 2.7 5.0 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 2.2 0.9 2.6 0.4 1.6 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.9 0.4 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.3Key Rate (%, eop) 3.25 3.25 3.00 3.00 2.50 3.03 3.12 3.53 3.72 3.93Exchange Rate (MAD per USD, eop) 8.34 8.57 8.46 8.16 9.06 10.15 10.20 9.99 9.79 9.67Exchange Rate (MAD per USD, aop) 8.43 8.10 8.63 8.41 8.41 9.28 10.17 10.09 9.89 9.73External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.6 -8.0 -9.8 -7.6 -6.2 -4.1 -3.6 -4.4 -5.0 -5.2Current Account Balance (USD bn) -4.1 -8.0 -9.4 -7.9 -6.6 -4.2 -3.5 -4.7 -5.8 -6.6Trade Balance (USD bn) -17.6 -22.7 -23.5 -23.3 -20.4 -16.1 -16.7 -17.6 -18.5 -19.6Exports (USD bn) 17.7 21.7 21.5 22.0 19.6 21.3 22.9 24.7 26.8 29.4Imports (USD bn) 35.3 44.4 45.0 45.3 40.0 37.4 39.6 42.3 45.3 49.0Exports (annual variation in %) 26.7 22.7 -1.0 2.3 -11.1 8.9 7.4 7.8 8.6 9.6Imports (annual variation in %) 8.1 25.9 1.4 0.5 -11.7 -6.4 5.7 6.9 7.1 8.1International Reserves (USD bn) 23.6 20.7 17.5 19.2 20.4 21.2 22.2 23.4 24.8 26.4International Reserves (months of imports) 8.0 5.6 4.7 5.1 6.1 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5External Debt (USD bn) 27.1 29.6 33.9 39.8 43.6 45.2 47.1 49.6 50.0 51.0External Debt (% of GDP) 31.8 28.9 35.7 39.0 40.8 44.1 47.5 46.3 42.7 40.1



April 2015

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real and monetary sector data are from the Higher Planning Commission of Morocco (HCP, Haut Commissariat au Plan) and Thomson Reuters. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: HCP. 4 GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.2 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: HCP. 5 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.3 Exchange rate, MAD per USD (eop) Source: Thomson Reuters. 6 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.




4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

2015 2016


-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

MoroccoMENAWorld

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2015 2016


Real Sector | Economic Indicators

3 | Exchange Rate | MAD per USD 2 | Inflation | in %

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Morocco MENA

7.5

9.0

10.5

12.0

2000 2005 2010 2015

6 | MAD per USD | evol of fcsts

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

2015 2016


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BNP Paribas 4.6 4.3 -4.3 -4.0 1.5 1.5 10.20 10.00 -4.2 -4.8Capital Economics 5.0 5.5 -4.0 -3.0 1.5 1.8 - - -4.0 -3.0Credit Agricole 4.0 4.0 - - 0.9 1.3 - - -7.0 -4.3EIU 4.0 4.0 -4.2 -4.1 1.1 1.5 10.15 10.04 -4.1 -5.5Emirates NBD 5.0 6.0 -4.2 -3.3 - - - - 0.9 2.0Euler Hermes 4.5 4.5 - - - - - - - -Frontier Strategy Group 4.2 4.4 - - 1.9 2.0 - - - -HSBC 4.6 3.7 -4.0 -2.8 1.0 1.6 9.46 9.64 -3.3 -3.1JPMorgan 3.8 4.1 - - 1.1 2.0 - - -5.6 -5.2Julius Baer 4.5 5.0 - - - - - - - -Oxford Economics 4.3 5.0 -4.2 -4.2 1.4 2.3 10.80 11.10 -5.4 -4.5SummaryMinimum 3.8 3.7 -4.3 -4.2 0.9 1.3 9.46 9.64 -7.0 -5.5Maximum 5.0 6.0 -4.0 -2.8 1.9 2.3 10.80 11.10 0.9 2.0Median 4.5 4.4 -4.2 -3.7 1.2 1.7 10.18 10.02 -4.2 -4.4Consensus 4.4 4.6 -4.1 -3.6 1.3 1.8 10.15 10.20 -4.1 -3.6

Real GDPvariation in % % of GDP var. in % MAD per USD % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Prices (CPI) Exchange Rate Current Account



April 2015

Morocco in the Region


Fact Sheet

Morocco3.1%

Saudi Arabia21.9%

Iran12.8%

UAE12.3%

Israel9.2%

Other40.6%

Morocco8.7%

Egypt22.5%

Iran20.5%

Algeria10.2%

Iraq9.4%

Other28.6%

U.S.A.6.8% Russia

5.0%

Other EU-27

17.3%

Spain13.1%

France12.1%

Italy5.1%

China6.9%

,

Other MENA7.9%

Saudi Arabia6.2%

Other19.7%

Other EU-

2717.5%

France21.0%

Spain17.3%

Asia ex-Japan9.4%

Brazil5.4%

Other29.5%

Other6.5%


Mineral Fuels25.4%

Food12.2%

Other4.0%


Ores & Metals12.3%

Food17.9%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Abundant natural resources • High unemployment• Sound economic policy • Unfavorable business conditions• Strategic geographical location • Tourism sector highly dependant

upon European demand


Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Ba1 StableS&P: BBB- StableFitch Ratings: BBB- Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 55Railways (km): 2,067Roadways (km): 58,395Waterways (km): -Chief Ports: Casablanca, Safi, Essaouira

Official name: Kingdom of MoroccoCapital: Rabat (1.8m)Other cities: Casablanca (3.0m)

Fes (1.1m)Area (km2): 446,550Population (million, 2014 est.): 33.2Population density (per km2, 2014): 74Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.0Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 76.5Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 32.9Language: Arabic, Berber, FrenchMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT

Head of State: King Mohammed VIPrime Minister: Abdellatif JouahriLast elections: 25 November 2011Next elections: 31 December 2016Central Bank Governor: Abdellatif Jouahri

FOCUSECONOMICS Oman


April 2015

OmanOutlook stable


Carl KellyEconomist

Oman

Oman is pushing to diversify its economy and reduce its dependence on the oil sector. The government intends to leverage its strategic location and boost its standing as a regional logistics hub through investments in large infrastructure projects. However, deteriorating oil revenues, which represent about 80% of the government’s budget, will inevitably put a damper on spending this year. The Ministry of Finance is looking for ways to minimize potential shortfalls and is considering tax hikes and levies on large industrial companies, but the fiscal deficit is still expected to balloon significantly in the near term. There is also concern that a weakening of the economy will threaten foreign investment in areas with growth potential such as the tourism sector and that it will increase social instability.

Low oil prices will restrain economic growth in Oman in the near term. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 2.6% this year, which is unchanged from last month. For 2016, the panel foresees the economy expanding 3.0%.

Inflation increased from 0.4% in January to 0.7% in February. FocusEconomics panelists see inflation averaging 1.6% in 2015 and expect it to rise to 2.2% in 2016.

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 3.3 3.8 4.2GDP (USD bn): 74.1 85.4 102.3GDP per capita (USD): 22,520 22,257 24,277GDP growth (%): 3.2 3.1 3.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 0.1 -6.0 -4.5Public Debt (% of GDP): 4.7 8.6 8.7Inflation (%): 2.7 1.6 3.3Current Account (% of GDP): 10.0 -3.1 -3.2

Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3GDP per capita (USD) 20,299 22,668 23,165 21,725 22,022 22,114 22,634 23,406 24,250 25,175GDP (USD bn) 58.6 67.8 76.2 78.1 81.8 84.9 89.5 95.5 102.1 109.3GDP (OMR mn) 22.5 26.1 29.4 30.1 31.6 32.9 34.6 36.9 39.4 42.2Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 21.2 15.9 12.4 2.4 5.1 4.1 5.1 6.6 6.9 7.1Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 4.8 -1.1 7.1 3.9 3.7 2.6 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.7Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.2 -0.8 16.0 6.6 4.3 3.3 3.5 4.0 4.1 4.2Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 2.3 1.3 26.2 5.1 5.1 -1.5 2.2 5.7 6.1 6.2Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 5.7 2.4 4.4 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 4.2 4.4 4.9Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.8 7.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.9 -0.1 -11.0 -7.1 -4.9 -4.4 -4.2Public Debt (% of GDP) 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.9 5.7 9.4 10.7 9.0 8.8 8.3Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 3.3 4.0 2.9 1.3 1.0 1.6 2.2 3.2 3.3 3.4Exchange Rate (OMR per USD, eop) 0.385 0.385 0.385 0.385 0.385 0.385 0.385 0.385 0.385 0.385External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 8.6 13.2 10.2 6.5 4.5 -8.6 -5.2 -3.8 -3.2 -2.7Current Account Balance (USD bn) 5.0 8.9 7.8 5.1 3.7 -7.3 -4.7 -3.6 -3.3 -2.9Trade Balance (USD bn) 18.7 25.6 26.5 24.6 24.6 13.5 16.4 18.3 19.9 21.3Exports (USD bn) 36.6 47.0 52.1 56.4 54.8 42.0 46.6 50.9 55.2 59.6Imports (USD bn) 17.9 21.5 25.6 31.8 30.2 28.5 30.2 32.6 35.3 38.3Exports (annual variation in %) 32.5 28.6 10.7 8.2 -2.7 -23.5 11.0 9.3 8.5 7.9Imports (annual variation in %) 11.4 20.2 19.2 24.2 -5.1 -5.7 6.1 7.9 8.2 8.6International Reserves (USD bn) 13.0 14.3 14.3 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.1 18.9 20.8 22.3International Reserves (months of imports) 8.7 8.0 6.7 6.0 6.5 7.1 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.0

FOCUSECONOMICS Oman


April 2015

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real, monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank of Oman (CBO) and the National Centre for Statistics & Information (NCSI). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: NCSI. 2 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: NCSI. 3 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: CBO.




2.2

2.6

3.0

3.4

2015 2016


-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

OmanMENAWorld

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2015 2016


Economic Indicators


-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Oman

MENA

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Oman

MENA


-10

-5

0

5

2015 2016


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BNP Paribas 4.5 3.2 -8.2 -3.7 1.1 2.4 -11.0 -7.0 18.0 19.0Capital Economics 2.0 1.5 -15.0 -15.0 2.0 2.0 -17.5 -17.5 - -Citigroup Global Mkts -2.2 2.7 -10.3 -3.0 0.9 1.2 -3.7 4.4 - -EIU 2.0 2.3 -7.0 -5.9 2.3 3.0 -2.8 -3.2 17.3 17.5Emirates NBD 2.9 3.2 -14.6 -9.9 2.0 2.5 -13.4 -7.7 - -Euler Hermes 4.0 4.5 - - - - - - - -HSBC 1.7 1.9 -10.1 -4.3 1.1 0.9 -7.6 -3.2 15.3 14.6Jadwa Investment 3.1 3.2 -8.7 -5.4 1.9 2.5 -4.6 -1.4 17.2 17.4JPMorgan 3.4 3.0 - - 2.4 2.5 - - - -National Bank of Kuwait 3.9 3.6 -13.8 -9.8 1.0 2.5 - - - -Oxford Economics 1.8 2.5 -11.4 -6.7 1.1 2.2 -8.3 -6.1 16.8 16.9Standard Chartered 3.5 4.0 - - - - - - - -SummaryMinimum -2.2 1.5 -15.0 -15.0 0.9 0.9 -17.5 -17.5 15.3 14.6Maximum 4.5 4.5 -7.0 -3.0 2.4 3.0 -2.8 4.4 18.0 19.0Median 3.0 3.1 -10.3 -5.9 1.5 2.4 -7.9 -4.7 17.2 17.4Consensus 2.6 3.0 -11.0 -7.1 1.6 2.2 -8.6 -5.2 16.9 17.1

Real GDP Fiscal Balance Prices (CPI) Current Account Int. Reservesvariation in % % of GDP var. in % % of GDP USD bn


last 4 months.

FOCUSECONOMICS Oman


April 2015

Oman in the Region


Fact Sheet

Oman2.4%

Saudi Arabia21.9%

Iran12.7%

UAE12.3%Israel

9.2%

Other41.6%

Oman1.0%

Egypt22.5%

Iran20.5%

Algeria10.2%

Iraq9.4%

Other36.4%

Japan13.5%

U.S.A.5.9%

EU-2714.0%

Other Asia

ex-Japan9.1%India

5.5%China5.0%,

Other MENA8.9%


Other12.3%

Japan9.5%

Other Asia ex-Japan

14.9%

China33.0%

Korea9.3%

Other MENA6.6%


7.7%

Other19.0%

Other9.5%


Ores & Metals5.4%

Mineral Fuels8.4%

Food11.1%

Other10.1%

Manufact. Products

11.3%

Mineral Fuels78.6%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002000-02 2003-05 2006-08

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Industry

Oil & Gas

Services

General Data


Political Data



• High oil export revenues • Vulnerability to global oil price fluctuations• Low skilled workforce

• Significant foreign exchange reserves

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,037Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,027Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 23.8Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 20.4Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 923.8Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 145CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 62.9

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: A1 NegativeS&P: A- StableFitch Ratings: - -


Transportation (2013) Airports: 132Railways (km): -Roadways (km): 60,240Waterways (km): -Chief Ports: Sultan Qaboos, Salalah, Suhar

Official name: Sultanate of OmanCapital: Muscat (0.79m)Other cities: As Sib al Jadidah (0.24m)

Salalah (0.16m)Area (km2): 309,500Population (million, 2014 est.): 3.7Population density (per km2, 2014 est.): 12Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 2.1Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 74.9Illiteracy rate (%, 2010): 3.1Language: ArabicMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+4

Head of State Sultan Qaboos bin SaidLast elections: -Next elections: -Central Bank Chairman: Ali bin Mohammed bin Moosa

FOCUSECONOMICS Qatar


April 2015

QatarOutlook deteriorates


Carl KellyEconomist

Qatar

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 1.9 2.4 2.8GDP (USD bn): 188 232 312GDP per capita (USD): 100,763 95,568 111,820GDP growth (%): 8.4 5.9 6.3Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 11.6 4.4 3.0Public Debt (% of GDP): 34.8 30.0 34.0Inflation (%): 2.3 3.4 4.4Current Account (% of GDP): 30.7 15.4 11.8

Official data show that the economy expanded 6.7% in Q4 of last year, which was above the 6.0% increase tallied in Q3 and pushed GDP growth for the full year to 6.2%. The strong results were driven by growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector, which expanded at double-digit rates throughout the year. The construction sector provided the biggest contribution to growth as the government poured money into large infrastructure projects. Substantial increases in finance, real estate and business services, as well as in trade and hospitality, also indicate that economic diversification is progressing. In contrast, the hydrocarbon sector contracted for the first time in more than two decades in 2014 due to the drop in global oil prices. Despite lower oil revenues, the government has sufficient fiscal buffers to push ahead with its ambitious investment program. The latest budget calls for USD 182 billion to be spent through 2018.

Qatar’s ongoing economic diversification and robust capital spending will sustain growth going forward, although declines in the oil sector present an important downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 5.7% in 2015. For 2016, panelists foresee GDP growth of 5.9%.

Consumer prices increased 0.1% over the previous month in February. CPI data are now calculated with 2013 as base year. Panelists expect average inflation to rise to 3.4% in 2015. For 2016, the panel sees inflation averaging 3.9%.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8GDP per capita (USD) 76,397 99,376 103,545 99,368 94,630 95,245 96,828 102,336 111,067 122,055GDP (USD bn) 125 170 190 203 212 231 254 280 310 345GDP (QAR bn) 455 618 693 740 771 881 967 1,068 1,183 1,313Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 27.9 35.7 12.1 6.8 4.2 9.2 9.8 10.4 10.7 11.0Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 16.7 13.0 6.0 6.3 6.2 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.4Economic Growth (GDP Oil, annual var. in %) 28.9 15.6 1.3 0.2 -1.5 1.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.3Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 11.9 7.3 9.0 6.5 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.7Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -2.9 27.6 7.3 10.2 10.1 7.8 8.1 10.1 11.1 11.5Industry (annual variation in %) 23.4 13.9 4.0 3.4 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 4.0Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2.7 7.8 11.4 15.5 9.8 1.9 1.5 3.0 3.1 3.1Public Debt (% of GDP) 31.9 33.6 36.3 34.6 22.8 34.9 32.5 33.6 33.9 34.5Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) -2.4 1.9 1.9 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.6Overnight Lending Rate (%, eop) 5.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 - - - - -Exchange Rate (QAR per USD, eop) 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 13.6 28.4 32.8 30.8 25.9 9.9 10.4 11.3 11.9 12.3Current Account Balance (USD bn) 17.0 48.2 62.4 62.6 54.8 22.9 26.5 31.7 37.0 42.3Trade Balance (USD bn) 54.0 87.3 102.2 105.3 100.6 63.4 73.4 79.5 84.7 89.3Exports (USD bn) 74.9 114.3 132.9 136.7 131.7 98.7 112.5 123.1 133.4 144.0Imports (USD bn) 20.9 26.9 30.8 31.5 31.1 35.3 39.2 43.6 48.7 54.7Exports (annual variation in %) 56.1 52.5 16.3 2.9 -3.7 -25.1 14.0 9.4 8.4 7.9Imports (annual variation in %) -6.8 28.6 14.3 2.3 -1.0 13.3 11.1 11.3 11.8 12.2International Reserves (USD bn) 31.1 16.7 33.1 42.0 43.0 42.5 43.1 48.8 55.1 63.2International Reserves (months of imports) 17.8 7.4 12.9 16.0 16.6 14.4 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.9



April 2015

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real, monetary and external sector data are from the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDPS) and the Qatar Central Bank (QCB). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: MDPS. 4 GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.2 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: MDPS. 5 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.3 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: QCB. 6 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts

during the last 4 months.




5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

2015 2016


-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

QatarMENAWorld

3.4

3.7

4.0

4.3

4.6

2015 2016


Economic Indicators


-6

0

6

12

18

2000 2005 2010 2015

Qatar MENA

0

10

20

30

40

2000 2005 2010 2015

Qatar

MENA


9

12

15

18

2015 2016


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BNP Paribas 7.1 6.5 0.2 2.2 2.4 3.1 7.0 6.0 48.0 50.0Capital Economics 5.5 5.0 -1.0 -3.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 1.5 - -Citigroup Global Mkts 3.8 4.1 -5.7 -2.7 3.5 4.5 12.8 14.6 - -Credit Agricole 4.4 4.9 - - 3.9 4.6 -0.3 1.1 - -EIU 4.4 4.9 0.8 1.5 3.5 4.2 -1.0 1.1 44.1 46.6Emirates NBD 6.3 6.9 3.0 3.9 3.5 3.7 -0.9 2.0 - -Euler Hermes 6.0 6.5 - - - - - - - -Frontier Strategy Group 5.7 6.0 - - 3.6 3.8 - - - -HSBC 5.6 5.4 4.0 -3.0 2.7 2.4 3.5 1.8 44.1 45.1Jadwa Investment 6.5 6.4 4.7 4.4 3.4 3.9 13.6 11.8 38.3 37.1JPMorgan 6.1 6.6 - - 4.6 4.7 17.9 24.5 - -National Bank of Kuwait 6.7 6.4 1.8 2.2 3.2 3.5 - - - -Oxford Economics 5.5 5.8 6.3 7.5 3.5 4.5 15.7 17.9 37.8 36.6Samba Financial Group 7.2 7.5 4.7 2.3 3.6 4.0 21.3 16.0 - -Standard Chartered 5.4 5.5 - - 4.2 4.5 26.0 27.0 - -SummaryMinimum 3.8 4.1 -5.7 -3.0 2.4 2.4 -1.0 1.1 37.8 36.6Maximum 7.2 7.5 6.3 7.5 4.6 4.7 26.0 27.0 48.0 50.0Median 5.7 6.0 2.4 2.2 3.5 4.0 9.9 8.9 44.1 45.1Consensus 5.7 5.9 1.9 1.5 3.4 3.9 9.9 10.4 42.5 43.1

variation in % % of GDP var. in % % of GDP in USD bnReal GDP Fiscal Balance Prices (CPI) Current Account Int. Reserves



April 2015

Qatar in the Region


Fact Sheet

Qatar6.2%

Saudi Arabia21.9%

Iran12.8%

UAE12.3%

Israel9.2%

Other37.6%

Qatar0.6%

Egypt22.5%

Iran20.5%

Algeria10.2%

Iraq9.4%

Other36.8%

U.S.A.11.1%

Japan8.2%

Other EU-27

20.3%

Germany6.7%

Other Asia ex-Japan

11.6%

China9.8%

,

Other MENA10.2%


8.0%

Other14.0%

Japan27.8%

EU-279.8%

Korea18.6%

India11.0%

Singapore5.3%

MENA7.2%

Other20.2%

Other7.8%


Food8.2%Other

18.1%

Manufact. Products

5.5%

Mineral Fuels76.4%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002006-08 2009-11 2012-14

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



. .

• World's third largest gas reserves• Net external creditor due to large stock of foreign assets• Reputation of playing international diplomatic role

• Highly dependent on hydrocarbon sector• Uncertainty over evolution of gas price due to shale boom• Productivity dependent on foreign labour


Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Ba1 StableS&P: AA StableFitch Ratings: - -


Transportation (2013) Airports: 6Railways (km): -Roadways (km): 9,830Waterways (km): -Chief Ports: Doha, Mesaieed, Ras Laffan

Official name: State of QatarCapital: Doha (1.3m)Other cities: Al-Rayyan (0.44m)

Area (km2): 11,586Population (million, 2014 est.): 2.2Population density (per km2, 2014): 193Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 3.6Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 78.4Illiteracy rate (%, 2010): 3.7Language: Arabic, EnglishMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+3

Head of State: Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al ThaniPrime Minister: Abdullah bin Nasser bin KhalifaLast elections: -Next elections: -Central Bank Governor: Abdulla Bin Saoud Al-Thani

FOCUSECONOMICS Saudi Arabia


April 2015

Saudi ArabiaOutlook moderates


Saudi Arabia

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 29.2 31.2 33.2GDP (USD bn): 716 791 949GDP per capita (USD): 24,515 25,324 28,621GDP growth (%): 6.0 2.8 3.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 10.5 -7.4 -4.6Public Debt (% of GDP): 3.9 3.1 4.6Inflation (%): 4.1 2.7 3.2Current Account (% of GDP): 21.3 4.8 5.2External Debt (% of GDP): 11.9 11.2 10.1

Saudi Arabia led other Sunni Arab states in launching airstrikes against neighboring Yemen on 25 March in an attempt to halt the advance of the Zaidi Shia rebels known as Houthis. The Kingdom has amassed 150,000 troops along its borders, which signals that a ground offensive may be imminent. If an all-out invasion does occur, there is a risk that it could evolve into a wider regional conflict since the Houthi rebels are supported by Shiite Iran, Saudi Arabia’s main rival for power in the Middle East. In the economic arena, growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector remained robust in Q1 despite the conflict in Yemen and the low oil price environment. The PMI rose to a six-month high in March and remained firmly entrenched in expansion territory.

Although low oil prices and declining government revenues are expected to weigh heavily on the Kingdom’s economy, Saudi Arabia’s sound fiscal position and a relatively-diversified economy shield the country against a sharp economic downturn. FocusEconomics panelists revised down their projection for 2015 by 0.1 percentage points and now expect the economy to expand 2.2% in 2015. Panelists foresee 2.7% growth in 2016.

Inflation inched down from 2.2% in January to 2.1% in February, which marked a nine-year low. Weak global demand and subdued food prices are keeping inflationary pressures at bay. Panelists see inflation rising in the coming months and expect it to average 2.6% in 2015. In 2016, the FocusEconomics panel sees inflation increasing further to 3.0%.

REAL SECTOR | PMI hits six-month high in MarchThe Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) elaborated by the Saudi British Bank (SABB) and HSBC rose from 58.5 in February to 60.1 in March, which represented the highest reading in six months. As a result, the PMI remains well above the 50-threshold, indicating an expansion in business activity in the non-oil producing private sector.

March’s result showed that economic dynamics in the non-oil private sector economy remained strong and that GDP in the non-oil sector could have accelerated in Q1. According to SABB and HSBC, March’s healthy print reflected mainly strong growth in new orders and output. Although remaining broadly unchanged, the rate of hiring was also strong. Meanwhile, input costs intensified marginally in March.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see fixed investment rising 5.4% in 2015, which is unchanged from the previous month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel expects fixed investment to increase 5.6%.

FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to grow 2.2% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, panelists expect the economy to grow 2.7%.

Ricard Torné Senior Economist


Note: Saudi British Bank (SABB) and HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in non-oil private sector business activity while a value below 50 points to a contraction.Source: Saudi British Bank (SABB) and HSBC.

45

50

55

60

65




April 2015

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls to nine-year low in FebruaryIn February, consumer prices were flat over the previous month, which matched the result registered in January. The monthly print mainly reflected that a drop in prices for food and beverages, recreation and culture as well as for transportation was offset by higher prices in most of the remaining categories.

Annual inflation inched down from 2.2% in January to 2.1% in February, which marked the lowest rate since February 2006. Annual average inflation stabilized at the previous month’s 2.6% in February, thereby remaining at the lowest rate since January 2007.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to average 2.6% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points over last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel sees inflation averaging 3.0%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | OPEC oil prices stabilize in recent weeksOn 9 April, the average price of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil basket stood at USD 54.6 per barrel, which was virtually unchanged from the price recorded in the same day of the previous month. Oil prices have recovered some of the ground lost in the past weeks and the April reading marked a 31.6% increase over the USD 41.5 per barrel tallied on 12 January, when oil recorded the lowest price since 2009. Nonetheless, oil prices are still 47.6% below the level observed on the same day last year.

Oil prices have been volatile in recent weeks, mainly due to the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen, the successful talks between Iran and the U.S.-led group of six countries over the Iranian nuclear program, and a strong build-up of crude supply in the United States. Nevertheless, the global oil market is still oversupplied and prices are expected to remain low for an extended period of time.

According to the latest report from OPEC, Saudi Arabia’s oil production reached 9.68 million barrels per day (mbpd) in February, which was up from the 9.64 mbpd tallied in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect oil production to reach 9.67 million barrel per day this year. In 2016, the panel sees crude output to inch up to 9.78 barrels per day.


Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6




%%

Oil Prices | USD per Barrel

Note: Price of the OPEC oil basket in USD per barrel.Source: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15



April 2015


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 27.6 28.4 29.2 30.0 30.6 31.2 31.9 32.5 33.1 33.8GDP per capita (USD) 19,111 23,594 25,136 24,815 24,568 25,240 26,164 27,263 28,578 30,022GDP (USD bn) 527 669 734 744 752 788 834 886 947 1,015GDP (SAR bn) 1,976 2,511 2,752 2,791 2,822 3,109 3,286 3,493 3,735 4,002Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 22.8 27.1 9.6 1.4 1.1 4.8 5.7 6.3 6.9 7.2Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 4.8 10.0 5.4 2.7 3.6 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.8 3.9Economic Growth (GDP Oil, annual var. in %) -0.1 12.2 5.1 -1.6 1.7 0.2 -0.6 0.8 1.3 1.4Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.9 1.7 11.7 3.2 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.2Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 1.2 16.6 8.1 11.1 - - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 10.6 15.6 5.0 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9Industrial production (annual variation in %) 6.2 12.0 4.9 0.2 2.9 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) 8.78 9.42 9.79 9.65 9.70 9.67 9.78 9.94 10.07 10.18Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 11.2 12.4 12.0 11.5 11.6 11.3 11.3 11.1 11.0 10.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 4.4 11.6 13.6 6.5 -1.4 -12.2 -8.6 -5.1 -4.8 -3.7Public Debt (% of GDP) 8.4 5.4 3.6 2.7 2.0 3.1 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.8Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 9.3 15.4 13.6 11.1 14.6 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 5.4 4.8 3.6 3.0 2.4 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 5.4 6.1 2.9 3.5 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3Producer prices (PPI, annual variation in %) 5.1 2.8 2.9 0.4 0.7 - - - - -SAMA Repo Rate (%, eop) 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.60 3.71 4.53 4.60 5.02Stock Market (variation of Tadawul in %) 8.4 -4.1 6.5 25.5 -2.4 - - - - -Exchange Rate (SAR per USD, eop) 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 12.7 23.7 22.4 17.8 13.1 -0.7 2.1 4.8 5.2 5.6Current Account Balance (USD bn) 66.7 158.5 164.7 132.6 98.8 -5.4 17.4 42.9 49.6 56.7Trade Balance (USD bn) 154 245 247 223 188 84 103 119 129 134Exports (USD bn) 251 365 388 376 344 240 268 296 324 350Imports (USD bn) 97 120 142 153 156 156 165 177 195 216Exports (annual variation in %) 30.6 45.2 6.5 -3.2 -8.4 -30.3 11.6 10.5 9.5 8.1Imports (annual variation in %) 11.9 23.1 18.2 8.1 1.9 -0.2 5.7 7.8 9.8 10.9International Reserves (USD bn) 445 544 656 726 732 735 745 780 811 842International Reserves (months of imports) 54.8 54.4 55.6 56.8 56.2 56.6 54.3 52.8 50.0 46.8External Debt (USD bn) 90.6 87.5 83.6 82.9 87.5 90.3 87.0 92.3 95.2 98.5External Debt (% of GDP) 17.2 13.1 11.4 11.1 11.6 11.5 10.4 10.4 10.0 9.7 Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1SAMA Repo Rate (%, eop) 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.60 3.06 3.27 3.63 3.71 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15OPEC Oil Price (USD per barrel, aop) 107.9 105.6 100.8 96.0 85.1 75.6 59.2 44.7 54.1 52.5SABB HSBC PMI (50-threshold) 59.2 60.1 60.7 61.8 59.1 57.6 57.9 57.8 58.5 60.1Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.23 0.31 0.38 0.15 0.15 0.23 0.08 0.00 0.00 -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 -



April 2015

Real Sector | GDP, Consumption and Investment

3 | Consumption | variation in %

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Saudi Arabia

MENA


-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

Saudi Arabia

MENA

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BNP Paribas 3.0 3.2 - - - -Byblos Bank Group 2.5 - - - - -Capital Economics 2.0 1.5 - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts -3.3 1.7 - - - -Credit Agricole 2.3 3.5 - - - -Credit Suisse 2.2 3.0 - - - -EIU 2.3 3.5 4.0 3.5 6.6 6.2Emirates NBD 2.5 3.0 - - - -Euler Hermes 2.5 3.5 - - - -Frontier Strategy Group 3.2 3.1 4.4 3.9 - -HSBC 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.0 4.0 3.5Jadwa Investment 3.3 2.1 - - - -JPMorgan 2.5 3.4 - - - -Julius Baer 2.5 3.0 - - - -National Bank of Kuwait 2.8 2.3 - - - -Oxford Economics 2.2 3.2 5.0 5.0 5.5 7.0Samba Financial Group 2.6 1.5 - - - -Standard Chartered 1.8 2.3 - - - -SummaryMinimum -3.3 1.5 3.0 3.0 4.0 3.5Maximum 3.3 3.5 5.0 5.0 6.6 7.0Median 2.5 3.0 4.2 3.7 5.5 6.2Consensus 2.2 2.7 4.1 3.9 5.4 5.6History30 days ago 2.3 2.8 3.9 3.9 5.4 5.660 days ago 2.5 3.0 3.8 3.8 5.4 5.690 days ago 3.3 3.6 4.3 4.2 7.0 7.3Additional ForecastsIMF (Oct. 2014) 4.5 4.4 - - - -World Bank (Jan. 2015) 4.1 4.4 - - - -

Real GDP Consumption Investmentvariation in % variation in % variation in %

GDP, Consumption and Investment 1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %


-4

0

4

8

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

Saudi ArabiaMENAWorld

2

3

4

5


2015 2016

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real and monetary sector data are from the Central Department of Statistics and Information (CDSI). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.3 Private consumption, annual variation in %.4 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.



April 2015

Real and Monetary Sector | Fiscal Balance and Inflation

Fiscal Balance and Inflation

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real, monetary and external sector data are from Central Department of Statistics and Information (CDSI) and the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 5 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: CDSI.6 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the

last 18 months.7 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) of %. Source: SAMA.8 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source:

SAMA.9 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.10 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.11 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: CDSI.12 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: CDSI.13 International reserves, months of imports. Source: CDSI.14 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.15 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: CDSI.16 Imports, annual variation in %. Source: CDSI.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BNP Paribas -13.5 -9.3 2.0 2.5Byblos Bank Group -6.1 - 2.6 -Capital Economics -10.0 -10.0 2.0 2.0Citigroup Global Mkts -13.2 -5.6 3.0 3.4Credit Agricole - - 2.6 3.3Credit Suisse -12.0 -3.9 2.0 2.9EIU -15.3 -7.1 2.6 3.3Emirates NBD -11.8 -8.9 3.0 3.5Euler Hermes - - - -Frontier Strategy Group - - 2.5 2.5HSBC -11.1 -7.4 2.6 2.5Jadwa Investment -15.6 -12.0 2.5 2.9JPMorgan -10.1 -8.5 3.0 3.2Julius Baer - - 3.0 3.5National Bank of Kuwait -15.8 -10.5 2.4 2.6Oxford Economics -8.6 -9.0 2.6 3.3Samba Financial Group -15.6 -11.3 2.2 2.1Standard Chartered - - 3.5 4.1SummaryMinimum -15.8 -12.0 2.0 2.0Maximum -6.1 -3.9 3.5 4.1Median -12.0 -8.9 2.6 3.1Consensus -12.2 -8.6 2.6 3.0History30 days ago -10.6 -8.0 2.7 3.160 days ago -8.3 -7.5 2.8 3.190 days ago -3.7 -3.9 3.1 3.3Additional ForecastsSAMA (Oct. 2014) - - 3.2 -IMF (Oct. 2014) - - 3.2 3.4

Fiscal Balance Prices (CPI)% of GDP variation in %


7 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %



8 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %


0

2

4

6



-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Saudi ArabiaMENA

-15

0

15

30

45

2000 2005 2010 2015

Saudi Arabia

MENA

0

2

4

6



0

3

6

9

12

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Saudi ArabiaMENA

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10


2015 2016



April 2015






16 | Imports | variation in %


-5

0

5

10

15

20


2015 2016

-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

Saudi Arabia

MENA

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015

Saudi Arabia

MENA

0

100

200

300

400

2000 2005 2010 2015

Trade BalanceImportsExports

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015

Saudi Arabia

MENA

0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015

Saudi Arabia

MENA

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BNP Paribas -2.8 2.3 - - - - - - 730 740Byblos Bank Group 3.7 - 115 - 272 - 158 - 750 -Capital Economics -2.0 -2.0 - - - - - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts -6.6 -0.3 - - - - - - - -Credit Agricole -5.0 0.2 - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 5.7 10.9 - - - - - - 703 737EIU -6.6 0.2 45 94 212 268 166 174 733 734Emirates NBD -2.8 -0.5 86 112 261 300 176 188 - -Euler Hermes - - 95 130 220 275 125 145 - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - - - - - - - -HSBC 0.3 2.1 96 111 244 264 148 153 728 727Jadwa Investment -3.4 -3.5 70 67 230 226 160 159 710 685JPMorgan 6.0 5.8 - - - - - - - -Julius Baer - - - - - - - - - -National Bank of Kuwait - - - - - - - - - -Oxford Economics -4.1 -1.3 84 106 241 275 158 169 792 849Samba Financial Group 0.5 5.0 - - - - - - - -Standard Chartered 7.5 8.2 - - - - - - - -SummaryMinimum -6.6 -3.5 45 67 212 226 125 145 703 685Maximum 7.5 10.9 115 130 272 300 176 188 792 849Median -2.4 0.2 86 109 241 271 158 164 730 736Consensus -0.7 2.1 84 103 240 268 156 165 735 745History30 days ago 1.4 3.1 85 99 246 268 161 169 748 76460 days ago 2.5 3.1 96 107 258 277 162 170 764 78790 days ago 5.5 4.6 150 136 318 314 168 177 779 804

% of GDP USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bnCurrent Account Trade Balance Exports Imports Int. Reserves



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Saudi Arabia in the Region


Saudi Arabia21.9%

Iran12.7%

UAE12.3%Israel

9.2%

Egypt7.9%

Other36.0%

Saudi Arabia8.1%

Egypt22.5%

Iran20.5%Algeria

10.2%

Iraq9.4%

Other29.3%

U.S.A.13.0%

Japan5.9%

Other EU-27

17.6%

Germany6.4%

Other Asia ex-Japan

6.1%

China13.2%

Korea6.5%

India6.2%

,

MENA8.5%

Other16.6%

U.S.A.14.2%

Japan13.6%

EU-2710.8%

Other Asia

ex-Japan9.6%

China13.6%

Korea9.9%

India8.2%

MENA6.9%

Other13.1%

Other2.8%


Ores & Metals5.0%

Food14.9%

Other1.2%


Mineral Fuels88.2%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



..

• Heavily dependant on the oil sector• Low education levels which lead to high unemployment• Unstable geopolitical environment

• Leading oil producer among OPEC countries• High oil export revenues result in notable external sector surpluses• Robust financial and banking systems

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 27,663Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 9,314Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 255.4Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 231.6Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 11,725.7Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,861CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 582.7

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aa3 StableS&P: AA- NegativeFitch Ratings: AA Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 214Railways (km): 1,378Roadways (km): 221,372Waterways (km): -Chief Ports: Dammam, Al Jubail, Jeddah

Official name: Kingdom of Saudi ArabiaCapital: Riyadh (5.7m)Other cities: Jeddah (3.5m)

Mecca (1.7m)Area (km2): 2,149,690Population (million, 2014 est.): 30.6Population density (per km2, 2014): 14Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.5Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 74.8Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 12.8Language: ArabicMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+3

Head of State: King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al SaudLast elections: -Next elections: -Central Bank Governor: Fahad Al Mubarak

FOCUSECONOMICS Tunisia


April 2015

TunisiaOutlook stable



Tunisia

Militant gunmen carried out a devastating attack last month in Tunisia, a country that has been heralded as a model of democratic transition. The assailants opened fire at a popular Tunis museum, killing 21 foreign tourists. Violence continued in April when militant forces lethally attacked a Tunisian army checkpoint. Tunisian authorities are ramping up security efforts in response to these attacks, but the country’s important tourism sector is sure to take a hit. The impact will likely be significant as the tourism industry makes up 7% of GDP and is the country’s largest source of hard foreign currency.

Despite the potential security problems, the economy is expected to

accelerate this year compared to 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 3.6% in 2015. Panelists see the economy picking up momentum in 2016 and expanding 4.0%.

Inflation inched up from 5.7% in February to 5.8% in March with prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rising a significant 8.0% over the same period last year. Panelists expect that inflation will average 4.8% in 2015 and 4.5% in 2016.

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 10.8 11.1 11.5GDP (USD bn): 45.0 47.0 52.8GDP per capita (USD): 4,174 4,232 4,604GDP growth (%): 2.2 3.4 4.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.2 -4.7 -2.9Public Debt (% of GDP): 44.9 52.3 51.0Inflation (%): 4.8 4.8 3.9Current Account (% of GDP): -8.1 -7.7 -4.6External Debt (% of GDP) 54.6 66.7 75.9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.6GDP per capita (USD) 4,123 4,095 4,203 4,225 4,393 4,157 4,147 4,368 4,594 4,851GDP (USD bn) 43.5 43.7 45.3 46.0 48.3 46.2 46.5 49.5 52.6 56.1GDP (TND bn) 63.1 64.7 70.7 76.4 82.4 89.3 96.9 105.2 114.2 123.8Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 7.5 2.6 9.2 8.1 7.9 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 3.3 -0.5 4.8 2.5 2.6 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.7Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.3 4.1 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 4.3 -12.6 4.9 -0.9 0.3 2.8 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.0Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 7.7 -3.7 2.1 1.7 0.4 2.9 4.2 4.7 4.8 5.0Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 13.0 18.3 17.6 15.9 15.8 15.2 14.5 13.4 12.4 11.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.0 -3.3 -5.5 -6.8 -5.0 -5.0 -4.2 -3.5 -2.9 -2.4Public Debt (% of GDP) 40.7 44.5 44.5 45.7 51.6 52.4 53.0 52.6 51.0 49.3Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M1 in %) 11.2 19.8 5.3 4.4 7.7 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.2 3.5 5.1 5.8 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.7BCT Key Rate (%, eop) 4.50 3.50 4.00 4.50 4.75 5.15 5.43 5.13 5.00 4.87Exchange Rate (TND per USD, eop) 1.40 1.50 1.55 1.65 1.87 2.06 2.09 2.14 2.18 2.22Exchange Rate (TND per USD, aop) 1.43 1.41 1.56 1.63 1.70 1.93 2.08 2.12 2.16 2.20External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.8 -7.7 -8.2 -8.5 -8.9 -7.4 -6.8 -6.3 -4.6 -3.0Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.1 -3.4 -3.7 -3.9 -4.3 -3.4 -3.1 -3.1 -2.4 -1.7Trade Balance (USD bn) -5.5 -6.3 -7.4 -7.1 -8.1 -5.3 -5.2 -6.1 -6.7 -7.2Exports (USD bn) 15.5 18.4 16.8 16.7 16.9 16.3 17.6 18.6 20.0 21.3Imports (USD bn) 20.9 24.7 24.1 23.9 25.0 21.5 22.8 24.7 26.6 28.5Exports (annual variation in %) 6.9 18.6 -8.6 -0.3 0.9 -3.8 8.3 6.0 7.1 6.7Imports (annual variation in %) 8.8 17.8 -2.1 -1.1 4.7 -13.9 5.8 8.4 7.7 7.2International Reserves (USD bn) 9.6 8.0 8.6 7.8 7.6 7.9 8.3 9.3 10.3 11.3International Reserves (months of imports) 5.5 3.9 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7External Debt (USD bn) 22.5 22.6 25.3 25.8 29.2 31.0 33.8 36.8 40.1 43.3External Debt (% of GDP) 51.7 51.8 55.8 56.2 60.4 67.2 72.5 74.3 76.1 77.2



April 2015

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real and monetary sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics of Tunisia (INS, Institut National de la Statistique) and Thomson Reuters. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: INS. 4 GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.2 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: INS. 5 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.3 Exchange rate, TND per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters. 6 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.




3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2015 2016


-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Tunisia MENA

World

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

2015 2016


Real Sector | Economic Indicators

3 | Exchange Rate | TND per USD 2 | Inflation | in %

0

4

8

12

16

2000 2005 2010 2015

Tunisia MENA

1.0

1.3

1.6

1.9

2.2

2.5

2000 2005 2010 2015

6 | TND per USD | evol of forecasts

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

2015 2016


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Capital Economics 4.0 4.5 5.0 4.5 - - - - -7.0 -6.0Credit Agricole 2.9 3.5 4.4 4.0 - - - - -8.3 -8.3EIU 2.9 3.5 4.4 4.0 5.00 4.80 2.07 2.14 -8.2 -7.9Emirates NBD 3.6 3.5 4.5 5.0 - - - - -7.0 -5.9Euler Hermes 4.5 4.0 - - - - - - - -HSBC 4.0 4.3 5.4 5.1 5.25 6.25 1.93 1.89 -2.1 -0.6JPMorgan 3.4 3.7 5.3 4.7 - - - - - -Julius Baer 3.5 4.5 5.0 4.5 - - - - - -Oxford Economics 3.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 5.20 5.25 2.18 2.24 -11.8 -11.9SummaryMinimum 2.9 3.5 4.4 4.0 5.00 4.80 1.93 1.89 -11.8 -11.9Maximum 4.5 4.5 5.4 5.1 5.25 6.25 2.18 2.24 -2.1 -0.6Median 3.5 4.0 4.8 4.5 5.20 5.25 2.07 2.14 -7.6 -7.0Consensus 3.6 4.0 4.8 4.5 5.15 5.43 2.06 2.09 -7.4 -6.8

Real GDP Prices (CPI) BCT Key Rate Exchange Rate Current Accountvariation in % var. in % % TND per USD % of GDP



April 2015

Tunisia in the Region


Fact Sheet

Tunisia1.4%

Saudi Arabia21.9%

Iran12.7%

UAE12.3%Israel

9.2%

Other42.5%

Tunisia2.9%

Egypt22.5%

Iran20.5%

Algeria10.2%

Iraq9.4%

Other34.5%

Other EU-

2716.8%

France16.8%

Italy14.5%

Germany7.0%

Other Asia ex-Japan

5.7%

China7.0%

MENA7.6%

Other24.6%

Other EU-

2718.1%

France28.1%

Italy19.7%

Germany8.6%

MENA5.9%

Other19.7%

Other5.6%


Mineral Fuels13.0%

Food9.7%

Other2.0%


Mineral Fuels14.1%

Food9.0%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• High unemployment• Profound social inequalities• Weak business environment

• Abundant natural resources

• Strategic geographical location with close proximity to the European market


Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Ba3 NegativeS&P: - -Fitch Ratings: BB- Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 29Railways (km): 2,165Roadways (km): 19,418Waterways (km): -Chief Ports: Bizerte, Gabes, Rades, Sfax, Skhira

Official name: Tunisian RepublicCapital: Tunis (0.65)Other cities: Sfax (0.28m)

Sousse (0.16m)Area (km2): 163,610Population (million, 2014 est.): 11.0Population density (per km2, 2014): 67Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.9Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 75.7Illiteracy rate (%, 2010): 20.9Language: Arabic, FrenchMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+1

President: Beji Caid EssebsiLast elections: 21 December 2014Next elections: 2019Central Bank Governor: Chedly Ayari

FOCUSECONOMICS UAE


April 2015

UAEOutlook moderates


UAE

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 8.8 9.6 10.4GDP (USD bn): 370 451 551GDP per capita (USD): 42,160 47,094 52,747GDP growth (%): 4.9 3.8 3.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 6.5 0.3 -0.1Public Debt (% of GDP): 16.6 17.6 11.5Inflation (%): 0.9 2.7 3.3Current Account (% of GDP): 16.6 5.9 2.0External Debt (% of GDP): 40.1 39.0 35.3

Business activity in the UAE’s non-oil private-sector economy continued to improve in Q1. Although the PMI dropped to the lowest level in over a year in March, the index remains firmly rooted in strong expansionary territory. While the oil sector remains under pressure due to lower oil prices, the country is pursuing plans to reduce its reliance on natural resources. Recently, the Ministry of Economy announced that it is close to passing a law that will allow full foreign ownership of businesses in sectors that the government identifies as strategically important. Under the current regulations, foreign companies that want to hold full ownership must operate in the country’s free zones. Firms outside of the free zones have to be owned by local citizens. The law is expected to help improve the business environment and attract more foreign direct investment.

The Emirates is less exposed to fluctuations in oil prices than its regional peers due to its diversified economy. However, the country’s exports are being negatively affected by a drop in demand from elsewhere in the Gulf. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 3.5% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel projects economic growth of 3.8%.

Inflation inched down from 3.7% in January to 3.6% in February. Panelists expect inflationary pressure to ease this year, mainly reflecting a slowdown in residential real estate prices. They see inflation averaging 2.7% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. Next year, the panel sees inflation at 3.0%.

REAL SECTOR | PMI in March falls to lowest level in 17 monthsThe HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 58.1 in February to 56.3 in March, thus dropping to the lowest level in 17 months. Despite the drop, the PMI remains firmly entrenched above the 50-threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the non-oil producing private sector.

March’s figure mainly reflected slower expansion in output and new orders. In addition, jobs expanded at the slowest rate since March 2012. HSBC analysts added that, “the rates of expansion eased for the second month running and were below those seen through much of last year. As a result, workforce numbers rose at the slowest pace in three years.”

The government expects the economy to expand 4.8% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect GDP to expand 3.5% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points over last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel sees the economy increasing 3.8%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation inches down in FebruaryIn February, consumer prices rose 0.09% over the previous month, which followed the 0.68% increase observed in January and marked a three-month

Dirina Mançellari Economist


Note: HSBC Non-oil Purchasing Managers’ Index. Readings above 50 indicate an improvement in business conditions while readings below 50 indicate a deterioration.Source: HSBC and Markit.

47

50

53

56

59

62


FOCUSECONOMICS UAE


April 2015

low. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the figure mainly reflected higher prices for housing as well as electricity, gas and fuel.

Annual inflation inched down from 3.7% in January to 3.6% in February. However, annual average inflation increased from 2.5% in January to 2.7% in February, marking the highest rate on record.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to be at 2.7% in 2015, which is unchanged over last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel sees inflation rising to 3.0%.


Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5




%%

FOCUSECONOMICS UAE


April 2015


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 8.3 8.5 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.7GDP per capita (USD) 34,257 40,458 41,980 44,044 45,526 46,982 48,773 50,674 52,726 54,840GDP (USD bn) 283 344 368 398 423 450 481 514 550 589GDP (AED bn) 1,040 1,265 1,352 1,461 1,558 1,655 1,767 1,889 2,022 2,168Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 12.9 21.6 6.9 8.1 6.6 6.2 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.2Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.6 4.9 4.7 5.2 4.1 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 12.2 1.3 2.6 11.7 6.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.3Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -9.6 1.8 11.8 7.4 7.1 4.6 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 2.6 5.4 4.6 4.2 0.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) 2.30 2.56 2.68 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.74 2.76 2.79 2.82Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.9 4.2 8.9 6.5 5.4 -3.4 -1.0 -0.5 -0.1 0.3Public Debt (% of GDP) 22.2 17.6 16.8 15.3 16.0 18.1 18.6 14.0 11.5 9.0Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 6.2 5.0 4.4 22.5 8.0 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 1.7 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.1 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4Repo Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.50 2.63 2.71 2.76 2.813-Month EIBOR (%, eop) 2.14 1.52 1.30 0.81 0.68 0.99 2.13 2.41 2.70 3.00Stock Market (variation of DFM in %) -7.5 -18.9 19.9 107.7 12.0 - - - - -Exchange Rate (AED per USD, eop) 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.6 14.8 18.7 16.3 10.9 3.2 3.6 3.1 2.0 0.8Current Account Balance (USD bn) 7.2 50.9 69.0 64.7 46.0 14.3 17.5 16.0 10.8 4.8Trade Balance (USD bn) 49 107 132 137 124 88 100 106 106 99Exports (USD bn) 214 302 349 379 380 351 394 438 480 518Imports (USD bn) 165 195 217 241 256 263 294 332 374 419Exports (annual variation in %) 11.3 41.4 15.7 8.3 0.4 -7.6 12.1 11.2 9.6 7.9Imports (annual variation in %) 9.9 18.8 11.3 11.0 6.2 2.7 11.8 12.8 12.5 12.1International Reserves (USD bn) 32.8 37.3 47.0 68.2 75.3 82.7 92.8 109.2 123.7 138.2International Reserves (months of imports) 2.4 2.3 2.6 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0External Debt (USD bn) 137 137 141 169 173 173 182 188 194 201External Debt (% of GDP) 48.5 39.7 38.2 42.5 40.8 38.4 37.8 36.5 35.3 34.0

Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 2.6 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2Repo Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.38 1.50 2.00 2.25 2.38 2.63 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70HSBC PMI (50-threshold) 58.2 58.0 58.4 57.6 61.2 58.3 58.4 59.3 58.1 56.3Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.42 0.08 0.43 0.93 0.11 -0.20 0.34 0.68 0.09 -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.1 2.8 3.1 3.7 3.6 -

FOCUSECONOMICS UAE


April 2015

Real Sector | GDP, Consumption and Investment

3 | Consumption | variation in %

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

UAE MENA


-20

0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015

UAE MENA

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BNP Paribas 4.0 4.4 - - - -Byblos Bank Group 4.2 - - - - -Capital Economics 3.5 3.0 - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 4.0 4.4 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0Credit Agricole 3.3 3.4 - - - -Credit Suisse 2.6 3.3 - - - -EIU 3.2 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.5Emirates NBD 4.3 4.9 - - - -Euler Hermes 3.5 4.5 - - - -Frontier Strategy Group 3.0 2.9 4.3 4.0 - -HSBC 3.1 3.4 4.0 3.4 5.2 6.5Jadwa Investment 3.7 3.9 - - - -JPMorgan 3.8 3.8 - - - -Julius Baer 3.5 4.0 - - - -National Bank of Kuwait 2.7 4.2 - - - -Oxford Economics 2.8 3.4 6.9 6.9 4.0 3.7Samba Financial Group 4.4 - - - - -Standard Chartered 3.8 3.9 - - - -SummaryMinimum 2.6 2.9 3.8 3.4 4.0 3.7Maximum 4.4 4.9 6.9 6.9 5.2 6.5Median 3.5 3.8 4.3 4.2 4.7 4.8Consensus 3.5 3.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.9History30 days ago 3.6 3.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.960 days ago 3.7 3.9 5.0 4.8 4.8 5.290 days ago 4.0 4.1 5.5 5.1 6.9 7.1Additional ForecastsIMF (Oct. 2014) 4.5 4.4 - - - -World Bank (Oct. 2014) 4.5 - - - - -Government (Nov. 2014) 4.8 - - - - -

Consumption InvestmentReal GDPvariation in % variation in %variation in %

GDP, Consumption and Investment 1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %


-6

0

6

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

UAE MENA

World

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5


2015 2016

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real and monetary sector data are from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.3 Private consumption, annual variation in %.4 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.

FOCUSECONOMICS UAE


April 2015

Real and Monetary Sector | Fiscal Balance and Inflation

Fiscal Balance and Inflation

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 5 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.6 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the

last 18 months.7 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: NBS.8 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: NBS.9 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.10 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.11 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: CBUAE.12 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: CBUAE.13 International reserves, months of imports. Source: CBUAE.14 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.15 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: CBUAE.16 Imports, annual variation in %. Source: CBUAE.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BNP Paribas -3.1 3.7 2.3 2.5Byblos Bank Group - - 3.4 -Capital Economics -2.5 -3.5 3.0 3.0Citigroup Global Mkts - - 2.4 2.9Credit Agricole - - 2.1 2.5Credit Suisse - - - -EIU -4.8 -3.0 2.3 2.5Emirates NBD -4.1 -1.4 3.0 3.5Euler Hermes - - - -Frontier Strategy Group - - 3.3 3.2HSBC -3.9 -2.0 3.1 3.0Jadwa Investment -1.8 0.0 2.7 3.0JPMorgan - - 2.7 3.0Julius Baer - - 2.5 3.0National Bank of Kuwait - - 3.0 3.5Oxford Economics - - 2.6 3.2Samba Financial Group - - 2.4 -Standard Chartered - - - -SummaryMinimum -4.8 -3.5 2.1 2.5Maximum -1.8 3.7 3.4 3.5Median -3.5 -1.7 2.7 3.0Consensus -3.4 -1.0 2.7 3.0History30 days ago -2.9 -0.5 2.7 3.060 days ago 0.2 1.0 2.8 3.090 days ago 5.4 4.8 3.0 3.3Additional ForecastsIMF (Oct. 2014) - - 2.5 3.0World Bank (Oct. 2014) - - 2.8 -

Fiscal Balance Prices (CPI)% of GDP variation in %


7 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %



8 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %


1

2

3

4

5

6



0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

UAE MENA

-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

UAE MENA

1

2

3

4

5



0

4

8

12

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

UAE MENA

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0


2015 2016

FOCUSECONOMICS UAE


April 2015






16 | Imports | variation in %


2

6

10

14


2015 2016

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

UAE MENA

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

2000 2005 2010 2015

UAE MENA

0

200

400

600

2000 2005 2010 2015

Trade Balance

Imports

Exports

-20

0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015

UAE MENA

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2005 2010 2015

UAE MENA

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BNP Paribas - - - - - - - - 75.0 86.0Byblos Bank Group 2.6 - - - - - - - - -Capital Economics 3.5 3.5 - - - - - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 1.1 2.9 - - - - - - - -Credit Agricole 0.7 0.6 - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 4.5 5.4 - - - - - - 64.9 73.5EIU 1.3 0.6 90 96 354 380 263 284 79.9 80.9Emirates NBD 2.0 4.0 92 108 393 443 302 336 - -Euler Hermes - - 70 90 280 325 210 235 - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - - - - - - - -HSBC - - - - - - - - 78.2 76.6Jadwa Investment 5.6 5.6 - - - - - - 99.1 119.8JPMorgan 7.2 7.6 - - - - - - - -Julius Baer - - - - - - - - - -National Bank of Kuwait - - - - - - - - - -Oxford Economics 3.3 2.6 100 105 379 427 279 323 99.1 119.8Samba Financial Group - - - - - - - - - -Standard Chartered - - - - - - - - - -SummaryMinimum 0.7 0.6 70 90 280 325 210 235 64.9 73.5Maximum 7.2 7.6 100 108 393 443 302 336 99.1 119.8Median 2.9 3.5 91 100 366 404 271 303 79.1 83.5Consensus 3.2 3.6 88 100 351 394 263 294 82.7 92.8History30 days ago 5.4 4.9 92 101 374 415 281 314 85.6 95.960 days ago 5.4 4.9 104 112 405 449 301 337 86.8 96.590 days ago 7.5 5.1 122 117 423 455 301 337 89.7 100.0

Current Account Trade Balance Exports Imports Int. Reserves % of GDP USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn

FOCUSECONOMICS UAE


April 2015

Fact Sheet

UAE in the Region


UAE12.3%

Saudi Arabia21.9%

Iran12.7%Israel

9.2%

Egypt7.9%

Other36.0%

UAE2.4%

Egypt22.5%

Iran20.5%

Algeria10.2%

Iraq9.4%

Other34.9%

U.S.A.10.2%

Other EU-27

14.7%

Germany5.0%

Other Asia ex-Japan

12.2%India16.6%

China13.4%

MENA8.5%

Other19.5%

Japan15.4%

Other Asia ex-Japan

13.6%

India13.4%

Thailand5.5%

Singapore5.5%

Other MENA6.6%

Iran10.8%

Other29.1%

Other15.1%


Ores & Metals5.1%

Food6.6%

Other35.2%

Mineral Fuels64.8%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Highly developed services sector • Large external debt in Dubai• Political stability

• Substantial oil wealth in Abu Dhabi

• UAE economy still dependent on oil revenues from Abu Dhabi

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 8,544Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 3,823Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 100.5Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 93.3Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 3,213Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 669CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 234.1

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aa2 StableS&P: AA StableFitch Ratings: AA Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 43Railways (km): -Roadways (km): 4,080Waterways (km): -Chief Ports: Zayed, Jebel Ali, Mina Rashid, Khorfakkan

Official name: United Arab EmiratesCapital: Abu Dhabi (1.9m)Other cities: Dubai (2.1m)

Sharjah (1.3m)Area (km2): 83,600Population (million, 2014 est.): 9.3Population density (per km2, 2014): 111Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 2.7Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 77.1Illiteracy rate (%, 2005): 10.0Language: ArabicMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+4

President:

Prime Minister: Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashed Al MaktoumLast elections: 24 September 2011Next elections: 31 December 2017Central Bank Chairman: Khalifa Mohammed Al Kindi

Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan

FOCUSECONOMICS Yemen


April 2015

Yemen


Yemen

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 25.9 28.3 30.8GDP (USD bn): 33.0 39.4 46.0GDP per capita (USD): 1,273 1,391 1,492GDP growth (%): -3.4 2.6 4.1Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -6.0 -7.0 -5.6Public Debt (% of GDP): 50.9 53.2 61.1Inflation (%): 13.4 9.3 8.0Current Account (% of GDP): -2.3 -3.5 -3.8External Debt (% of GDP) 20.8 26.0 28.7

Outlook deteriorates





3 | Inflation | in %

6 | Current Account | evol of forecast


-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.52015 2016


1

2

3

4

5

2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

YemenMENAWorld

8

9

10

11

2015 2016


0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

YemenMENA

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Yemen

MENA

The devastating civil war in Yemen continues to tear the country apart, with Houthi forces acting as the de facto government in the capital, Sana’a, and in other parts of the country. Early this month, Houthi forces advanced into the city of Ataq, thus moving closer to reaching important oil and natural gas pipelines and export terminals. Neighboring countries have gotten involved in the conflict; a Saudi-led coalition of Arab states began air strikes and other military operations in Yemen in an effort to return the ousted government led by President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi to power. Meanwhile, foreign nationals are being evacuated, international businesses and organizations are closing their doors and relief agencies warn that a humanitarian crisis is already underway in the Middle East’s poorest country.

FocusEconomics panelists are taking developments into account and have revised down their 2015 growth forecast down 1.8 percentage points. They now expect GDP to grow 1.9% this year and 3.7% in 2016.

Panelists expect inflation in Yemen to average 10.7% in 2015 and foresee it declining to 8.5% in 2016.



April 2015


Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real, monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank of Yemen (CBY). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: CBY.2 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: CBY.3 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: CBY.4 GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.5 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.6 Current account balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 4 months.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 24.4 25.1 25.9 26.7 27.5 28.3 29.1 30.0 30.8 31.6GDP per capita (USD) 1,267 1,237 1,239 1,344 1,338 1,407 1,428 1,459 1,487 1,530GDP (USD bn) 30.9 31.1 32.1 35.8 36.7 39.8 41.6 43.7 45.8 48.4GDP (YER bn) 6,411 6,645 6,875 7,701 8,439 9,504 10,667 11,981 13,428 15,040Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %) 15.4 3.7 3.5 12.0 10.7 12.6 12.2 12.3 12.1 12.0Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 3.3 -15.1 2.2 3.9 2.1 1.9 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.2Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.1 -4.7 -5.4 -8.0 -7.3 -7.0 -6.7 -6.1 -5.8 -5.1Public Debt (% of GDP) 38.0 44.3 52.9 55.4 50.3 53.9 55.5 59.5 61.1 62.8Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 11.2 19.5 9.9 11.0 8.6 10.7 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.8Exchange Rate (YER per USD, eop) 214 214 214 215 215 232 248 265 284 298Exchange Rate (YER per USD, aop) 220 215 216 215 215 224 240 256 274 291External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.4 -1.7 -1.0 -4.3 -3.1 -3.6 -3.8 -3.7 -3.9 -3.7Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.1 -0.5 -0.3 -1.5 -1.1 -1.4 -1.6 -1.6 -1.8 -1.8Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.8 0.6 -3.5 -2.9 -3.6 -4.1 -4.1 -4.1 -4.1 -4.1Exports (USD bn) 7.6 9.1 7.8 7.8 7.9 5.9 6.5 7.3 8.1 9.2Imports (USD bn) 8.5 8.5 11.4 10.8 11.5 10.0 10.6 11.4 12.3 13.2Exports (annual variation in %) 30.0 19.2 -14.4 0.4 1.4 -26.1 10.7 11.7 12.1 12.4Imports (annual variation in %) 7.7 0.8 32.9 -5.3 7.0 -13.3 6.6 7.2 7.7 7.9International Reserves (USD bn) 5.9 4.5 6.2 5.3 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.9International Reserves (months of imports) 8.4 6.4 6.5 6.0 5.6 6.1 5.8 5.4 5.4 5.4External Debt (USD bn) 6.7 6.1 7.2 7.2 8.6 10.5 11.8 12.4 13.2 14.1External Debt (% of GDP) 21.6 19.5 22.6 20.2 23.5 26.3 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.0



April 2015

Yemen in the Region


Fact Sheet

Yemen1.1%

Saudi Arabia21.9%

Iran12.7%

UAE12.3%Israel

9.2%

Other42.9%

Yemen7.2%

Egypt22.5%

Iran20.5%Algeria

10.2%

Iraq9.4%

Other30.1%

EU-27

9.6% Other Asia

ex-Japan9.0%

China15.3%

India9.5%

LatAm5.2%


Saudi Arabia6.9%

Kuwait, 5.1%

Other24.9%

China38.2%

Thailand13.3%Korea

11.7%

Other MENA8.4%


5.6%

Other22.8%

Other2.3%


Mineral Fuels26.0%

Food31.6%

Other3.4%

Mineral Fuels89.9%

Food6.7%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Large receiver of remittances • Elevated political instability

• Moderate external debt

• Political and financial support of the international community

• The poorest country in the Arabian Peninsula• Barriers to doing business (curruption, poor infrastructure)




Transportation (2013) Airports: 57Railways (km): -Roadways (km): 71,300Waterways (km): -Chief Ports: Aden, Al Hudaydah, Mukalla

Official name: Republic of YemenCapital: Sana'a (1.9m)Other cities: Aden (0.7m)

Ta'izz (0.6m)Area (km2): 527,968Population (million, 2014): 27.5Population density (per km2, 2014): 52Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 2.7Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 64.8Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 34.7Language: ArabicMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+3

President: Abed Rabbo Mansour HadiLast elections: 21 February 2012Next elections: 28 February 2015Central Bank Governor: Mohamed Awad Bin Humam

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Notes and Statements

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Middle East and North Africa (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

PUBLICATION NOTE Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels. The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries:

G7 (Group of Seven, 7 countries): Canada, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; France, Germany and Italy are also Euro area countries.Euro area (19 countries): Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.Nordic Economies (5 countries): Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Finland is also a Euro area member.Eastern Europe (14 countries): Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine; Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia are also Euro area members.MENA (Middle East and North Africa, 16 countries): Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.GCC (Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, also known as Gulf Cooperation Council, 6 countries): Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates.Asia-Pacific (17 countries): Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puero Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela.Additional Countries: South Africa and Switzerland.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.

COPYRIGHT NOTE © Copyright 2015 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions.

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Middle East and North Africa is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

FocusEconomics S.L.Gran Via 657, E-08010 Barcelona, SpainE-mail: [email protected]

Notes

ASIA PACIFIC |

CENTRAL AMERICA |& CARIBBEAN |

EASTERN EUROPE|

EURO AREA |

LATIN AMERICA|

MAJOR ECONOMIES |

MIDDLE EAST| & NORTH AFRICA|

NORDIC ECONOMIES|

Brunei, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand

Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine

Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain

Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela

G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone, Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland

Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen; South Africa

Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1,600 unique indicators in 95 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator covered. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions.

REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED

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