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OverviewFarmer adaptation and tackling food insecurity:1. Micro-econometric StudyNature and Constraints to Autonomous Adaptation at the micro level 7 sites, 1200 households, survey data,

temperature and precipitation data (PMD)2. Political Economy Study Institutional and historical review (1974 – current) Evolution of Environmental Law PE of Food, Water and Climate Change3. Farmer Field Schools Curriculum development Master-trainer trainings

Methodology

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Methodology cont.,

adapt) by modelling the decision. The model can be thought of as follows:

The key issue here is to obtain detailed information on the adaptat

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00 ,exgYield

11 ,exgYield

Not Adapt

Adapt

For a given 5% uniform warming and 8% precipitation, 1982 values of US Southern farmlands fall by up to USD 1,000 / acre (Mendelsohn, 1994)

Theoretical framework

• use highlights to make key words stand out and to draw attention;

• keep it short and simple;• do not copy and paste entire texts;• use pictures and graphics;• summarize key points; and• practice to make sure you are under time!

For given changes to warming and precipitation, what are the PKR values and % changes expected for yields, crop margins, food expenditures, and food belt contributions?

Province District Date No of Respondents

Punjab 1.Jhang 20 - 26 Apr 2013 205

2. Rahimyar Khan 27 Apr – 3 May 2013 219

3. Rawalpindi 16 - 23 May 2013 217

4. Chakwal 24- 30 May 2013 217

Sindh

5. Sanghar 24 – 30 May 2013 220

6. Sukkur 17– 23 Jun 2013 -

7. Larkana 25 Jun – 1 Jul 2013 -

Total up to 30 May 1,078

Comprehensive Questionnaire Design

• Enables querying database, among others, for:

1. Plots (these can stretch/shrink, be replaced, or kept fallow)

2. Parcels (multiple plots, sometimes crop in plot repeats in other parcels)

3. Seasons (as per 1 above, plots alter with seasons)

4. Disaggregated cost variables (e.g., rental/operational/depreciation/opportunity cost values for equipment, labor, and other inputs by each stage of a crop cycle)

5. Adaptation related costs, income changes, onset dates, perceived utility of a particular measure, motivations besides climate change for given measures

Types of Policy Analysis enabled by the study database:

1. Is agricultural production diminished or less profitable owing to CC variation ? How sensitive are yields/margins to unit variation in temperature and rainfall?

2. What types of adjustments are farmers making ? Are these adaptation measures replicable, and at what cost and return to the government ?

3. Are household expenditures on food affected by adjustment costs ? Are food producing belts sustaining and increasing supply ?

4. What crops are likely to characterize given regions owing to changes in temperature and precipitation in coming decades ?

5. What is the effectiveness of alternate possible government interventions? How do yields and margins of those (not) adapting fare if their counterfactuals are considered? What are returns on investment for different adaptation options?

From our reconnaissance ….

Sanghar, December 2012

Existing adaptation: better drainage, irrigation purchase, change in inputsJhang: 65% practice up to 3 adaptation measures

High Awareness of Climate Change but variation in adaptation strategiesRahimYar Khan: 96% practice adaptation measures – 73% practice at least 2; 23% practice up to 4.

Crop Change – primarily a response to market price of outputPunjab: Rice/Cotton substitution

Alternative/off-farm employment - to offset uncertainties in agriculture

Farmers – Recall past product behaviour

GPS Coordinates – Every household, every concerned village!