Solar CowichanGuy Dauncey, October 2014

EJ Young

Solar energy travels at the speed of light 1,000 million kilometres an hour

Sun to Earth in 8 minutes 19 seconds

More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour than humans use in a year.

200 Million Years ago…..

200 Million Years ago…..

200 Million Years ago…..

Stored solar energy = future fossil fuels

As we burn the fossil fuels…

Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Carbon dioxide,like the other greenhouse

gases, traps

HEATin the troposphere

Burning fossil fuelsand destroying Earth’s forests Is causing THIS

The current increase in global warming is "...equivalent to exploding 400,000 Hiroshima

atomic bombs per day, 365 days per year. That’s how much extra energy Earth is gaining each day.”

- James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist

The last time the world was 3°C warmer, during the Pliocene,

the sea level was up to

25 metres higher.

We are currently on track for 4°C, 5°C or 6°C warmer

If global warming exceeds 1.6°C up to

31% of Earth’s species

will be committed to extinction,

having nowhere to go to escape the rising heat

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

Which path will you take?

100%

RENEWABLE

ENERGY

NOW

For 30,000 years, we harvested the Sun’s energy through firewood

For 300 years, we have been harvestingit through fossil fuels

It was fossil fuelsthat launched the Industrial Age,

and the modern world.

It is solar energy expressed through fossil fuels

that has made advanced engineering, solar PV and electric vehicles possible.

We don’t need to vilify fossil fuels.We can praise them,

and then say “Enough!”

Two Possible Futures

One YES

One NO

The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the

LAUNCH RAMPfor the Solar Age

30,000 yearsFirewood

300 yearsFossil Fuels

ScienceEngineering

Enlightenment

Two billion yearsSolar Energy

The Age of Firewood

The Age of Fossil Fuels

The Solar Age

Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years

Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

And with every passing year, solar technology will improve

and fall in price.

Vauban, Freiburg, Germany

Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan

Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany

Kurilpa Bridge, Australia

Blackfriars Bridge, London, UK

Solar railwayParis to Amsterdam

16,000 panels3.4 kilometres

3,300 MWh a year

Taiwan Solar Stadium, 2014

1977: $77

1997: $7

2013: $0.7

Price of Solar PVper Watt

A thousandfold fall in the price of solar PV

since 1977

100 GW in 2012

Solar PV 7000% increase since 2000

137 GWin 2013

Mass production = falling prices

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c

om

Average BC home electricity per yearHome, baseboard heat: 20,000 kWhHome, gas heat: 11,000 kWhLED lights, super efficient: 5,000 kWh4 kW solar system: 4,400 kWh

The higher the price of electricityand the sunnier the land,

the sooner the Solar Tsunami arrives

The higher the price of electricityand the sunnier the land,

the sooner the Solar Tsunami arrives

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c

om

2014: 4 kW PV System$3.50 to $4 per watt

$14-16,000 + tax4,400 kWh year

BC Hydro generation 50,000 GWh a yearZero-carbon (hydro & wind) 95%Potential new wind, river 20,000 GWh

Price of run-of-river energy 7-15 cents kWhPrice of wind energy 10-12 cents kWhPrice of solar PV (2014) 25 cents kWh

Export price for surplus power 2-3 cents kWh

Why there will never be a Solar Feed-in Tariff in British Columbia

Solar Economics in BC, 20144 kW @ $4 per watt

12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase3% finance

Cost per watt $4 4 kW + tax $16,800 3% finance $28,620

kWh per year 4,400 30-year savings $27,112

Solar Economics in BC, 20144 kW @ $4 per watt

Price @ 0% capital cost: 12.72 cents kwh Price @ 3% capital cost: 21.68 cents kwh Price @ 5% capital cost: 26.63 cents kwh

Solar Economics in BC, 201410 kW flat roof @ $3 per watt

12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase3% finance

Cost per watt $3 10 kW $30,000 3% finance $45,420

kWh per year 11,000 30-year savings $68,000 Result +$22,500

Solar Economics in BC, 201410 kW flat roof @ $3 per watt

12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase5% finance

Cost per watt $3 10 kW $30,000 5% finance $57,630

kWh per year 11,000 30-year savings $68,000 Result +$10,500

Solar Economics in BC, 201410 kW @ $3 per watt

12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase5% finance

Price @ 3% capital cost: 13.7 cents kwhPrice @ 5% capital cost: 17.4 cents kwh

2012$5/watt

2012$2.75/watt

BC market price: $4.00

What does solar PV cost?Price per installed watt

BC market price: $4.00Florida market price: $3.33

What does solar PV cost?Price per installed watt

BC market price: $4.00Florida market price: $3.33BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50

What does solar PV cost?Price per installed watt

BC market price: $4.00Florida market price: $3.33BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15

What does solar PV cost?Price per installed watt

BC market price: $4.00Florida market price: $3.33BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00

What does solar PV cost?Price per installed watt

BC market price: $4.00Florida market price: $3.33BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00Gabriola non-profit 10 kw: $2.60

What does solar PV cost?Price per installed watt

BC market price: $4.00Florida market price: $3.33BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00Gabriola non-profit 10 kw: $2.60Germany, market price: $2.10

What does solar PV cost?Price per installed watt

BC market price: $4.00Florida market price: $3.33BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00Gabriola non-profit 10 kw: $2.60Germany, market price: $2.10Australia, Residential: $1.85

What does solar PV cost?Price per installed watt

BC market price: $4.00Florida market price: $3.33BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00Gabriola non-profit 10 kw: $2.60Germany, market price: $2.10Australia, Residential: $1.80Australia, Utility-scale : $1.50

What does solar PV cost?Price per installed watt

4 kw Solar Prices in Australia, 2012-2014

Solar Economics in BC, 20144 kW @ $2.60 per watt

12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase3% finance

Cost per watt $2.60 4 kW + tax $11,000 3% finance $16,650

kWh per year 4,400 30-year savings $27,112 Result +$10,462

Solar Economics in BC, 20144 kW @ $2.60 per watt

12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase5% finance

Cost per watt $2.60 4 kW + tax $11,000 5% finance $21,150

kWh per year 4,400 30-year savings $27,112 Result +$6,000

Solar Economics in BC, 20144 kW @ $2.60 per watt

12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase

30 year power: 132,000 kwh 0% finance $11,000 3% finance $16,6505% finance $21,150

Price @ 0% capital cost: 8.3 cents kwh Price @ 3% capital cost: 12.6 cents kwh Price @ 5% capital cost: 16.0 cents kwh

“Our research suggests that as they become cheaper, the overall (solar) costs to

consumers are poised to fall to $2.30 (a watt) by 2015 and to $1.60 by 2020.”

The disruptive potential of solar powerMcKinsey, April 2014

The SolarTsunami

The unresolved solar problem: power storage

Elon Musk is Chairman and largest shareholder in SolarCityAnd CEO of Tesla…

They are collaborating on industrial grade batteries

Tesla

BatteryTraditional

Battery

Long term self-financingValue for future purchasers

Reduced transmission lossesResiliency against power outages, earthquakes

Creates more jobs per MWh than other kinds of energyPositive climate response when electricity is gas or coal

$100 spent on imported oil$70 leaves the country

$22 goes to the oil company$3 to the credit card company, $8 to the gas station

owner.

$100 spent on renewable energy may circulate and be spent

10 times before it leaves the country, creating demand and jobs worth $1,000 in value.

By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW could be losing up to $1,000 a year

Every commercial roof could look like this, and could be earning up to $10,000 a year

5 million residents = 2 million residences1/2 million roofs x 4 kw = 2,200 gigawatt-hours a year

+ Commercial and Utility PV = 3-5,000 Gwh a year

Future demand: 70,000 GWhSolar PV = 4-7% of BC’s future summer demand

BC’s Solar Future

Dan Kammen &Ditlev Engel

Copenhagen Climate Council

2009

Potential Direct Solar Jobs in BC

5,000 GWh x 0.91 = 4,500 jobs

Thin Film Solar PV

Thin film solar

Transparent solar windows

Impact of snow’s high albedo on solar PV performanceHow much increased yield?

100% increased PV yield due to solar reflection off the snow

December 2010 Ann & Gord Baird’s Eco-Sense house, Victoria, BC

www.eco-sense.ca

9% solar charging capacity from the car’s roof

Source: Hydro Quebec

Average EV uses 18 kWh per 100 km

10,000 km = 1,800 kWh a year1.75 kW solar = 1,925 kWh a year

1.75 kW = $7,000

5% 25 year mortgage = $40 a month

10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month

2014………………

1.75 kW = $2,800

3% 25 year mortgage = $16 a month

……….2020

Solar Charging

Egypt: 7 million vehicles= 2 million tonnes of CO2 a year

7 million ELECTRIC vehicles

If each travels 10,000 km a yearAverage 20 kwh per 100 km

= 14,000 GWh a year

Solar in the Middle East

85 sq km = 14,000 GWh/year

Egypt = 1 million sq km

Egypt = 1 million sq km

Egypt = 1 million sq km

Solar PV for 7 million vehicles

= 85 sq km

Egypt = 1 million sq km

.Solar PV for 7 million vehicles

= 85 sq km

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

Building a Sustainable Energy Future for British Columbia

www.bcsea.org

BCSEA 2013 www.bcsea.org

Could B.C. Become a 100% Renewable Energy Region?

GUY DAUNCEYOctober 2014University of Victoria

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c

om

www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c

om

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c

om

Think Globally,

VOTE

LOCALLY

On November 15th, in BC’s Civic Elections

BRING IT HOME

THE CLIMATE CRISIS…

1. Sustainable Transportation2. Sustainable Planning &

Development3. Greenest Buildings4. Sustainable Local Economy5. Healthy Food, Healthy Nature

November 15th Five Commitments

If you want to make a difference, now would be a great time to do so.

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com