Solar Cowichan
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Transcript of Solar Cowichan
Solar CowichanGuy Dauncey, October 2014
EJ Young
Solar energy travels at the speed of light 1,000 million kilometres an hour
Sun to Earth in 8 minutes 19 seconds
More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour than humans use in a year.
200 Million Years ago…..
200 Million Years ago…..
200 Million Years ago…..
Stored solar energy = future fossil fuels
As we burn the fossil fuels…
Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Carbon dioxide,like the other greenhouse
gases, traps
HEATin the troposphere
Burning fossil fuelsand destroying Earth’s forests Is causing THIS
The current increase in global warming is "...equivalent to exploding 400,000 Hiroshima
atomic bombs per day, 365 days per year. That’s how much extra energy Earth is gaining each day.”
- James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist
The last time the world was 3°C warmer, during the Pliocene,
the sea level was up to
25 metres higher.
We are currently on track for 4°C, 5°C or 6°C warmer
If global warming exceeds 1.6°C up to
31% of Earth’s species
will be committed to extinction,
having nowhere to go to escape the rising heat
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Which path will you take?
100%
RENEWABLE
ENERGY
NOW
For 30,000 years, we harvested the Sun’s energy through firewood
For 300 years, we have been harvestingit through fossil fuels
It was fossil fuelsthat launched the Industrial Age,
and the modern world.
It is solar energy expressed through fossil fuels
that has made advanced engineering, solar PV and electric vehicles possible.
We don’t need to vilify fossil fuels.We can praise them,
and then say “Enough!”
Two Possible Futures
One YES
One NO
The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the
LAUNCH RAMPfor the Solar Age
30,000 yearsFirewood
300 yearsFossil Fuels
ScienceEngineering
Enlightenment
Two billion yearsSolar Energy
The Age of Firewood
The Age of Fossil Fuels
The Solar Age
Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
And with every passing year, solar technology will improve
and fall in price.
Vauban, Freiburg, Germany
Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan
Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany
Kurilpa Bridge, Australia
Blackfriars Bridge, London, UK
Solar railwayParis to Amsterdam
16,000 panels3.4 kilometres
3,300 MWh a year
Taiwan Solar Stadium, 2014
1977: $77
1997: $7
2013: $0.7
Price of Solar PVper Watt
A thousandfold fall in the price of solar PV
since 1977
100 GW in 2012
Solar PV 7000% increase since 2000
137 GWin 2013
Mass production = falling prices
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c
om
Average BC home electricity per yearHome, baseboard heat: 20,000 kWhHome, gas heat: 11,000 kWhLED lights, super efficient: 5,000 kWh4 kW solar system: 4,400 kWh
The higher the price of electricityand the sunnier the land,
the sooner the Solar Tsunami arrives
The higher the price of electricityand the sunnier the land,
the sooner the Solar Tsunami arrives
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c
om
2014: 4 kW PV System$3.50 to $4 per watt
$14-16,000 + tax4,400 kWh year
BC Hydro generation 50,000 GWh a yearZero-carbon (hydro & wind) 95%Potential new wind, river 20,000 GWh
Price of run-of-river energy 7-15 cents kWhPrice of wind energy 10-12 cents kWhPrice of solar PV (2014) 25 cents kWh
Export price for surplus power 2-3 cents kWh
Why there will never be a Solar Feed-in Tariff in British Columbia
Solar Economics in BC, 20144 kW @ $4 per watt
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase3% finance
Cost per watt $4 4 kW + tax $16,800 3% finance $28,620
kWh per year 4,400 30-year savings $27,112
Solar Economics in BC, 20144 kW @ $4 per watt
Price @ 0% capital cost: 12.72 cents kwh Price @ 3% capital cost: 21.68 cents kwh Price @ 5% capital cost: 26.63 cents kwh
Solar Economics in BC, 201410 kW flat roof @ $3 per watt
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase3% finance
Cost per watt $3 10 kW $30,000 3% finance $45,420
kWh per year 11,000 30-year savings $68,000 Result +$22,500
Solar Economics in BC, 201410 kW flat roof @ $3 per watt
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase5% finance
Cost per watt $3 10 kW $30,000 5% finance $57,630
kWh per year 11,000 30-year savings $68,000 Result +$10,500
Solar Economics in BC, 201410 kW @ $3 per watt
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase5% finance
Price @ 3% capital cost: 13.7 cents kwhPrice @ 5% capital cost: 17.4 cents kwh
2012$5/watt
2012$2.75/watt
BC market price: $4.00
What does solar PV cost?Price per installed watt
BC market price: $4.00Florida market price: $3.33
What does solar PV cost?Price per installed watt
BC market price: $4.00Florida market price: $3.33BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50
What does solar PV cost?Price per installed watt
BC market price: $4.00Florida market price: $3.33BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15
What does solar PV cost?Price per installed watt
BC market price: $4.00Florida market price: $3.33BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00
What does solar PV cost?Price per installed watt
BC market price: $4.00Florida market price: $3.33BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00Gabriola non-profit 10 kw: $2.60
What does solar PV cost?Price per installed watt
BC market price: $4.00Florida market price: $3.33BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00Gabriola non-profit 10 kw: $2.60Germany, market price: $2.10
What does solar PV cost?Price per installed watt
BC market price: $4.00Florida market price: $3.33BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00Gabriola non-profit 10 kw: $2.60Germany, market price: $2.10Australia, Residential: $1.85
What does solar PV cost?Price per installed watt
BC market price: $4.00Florida market price: $3.33BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00Gabriola non-profit 10 kw: $2.60Germany, market price: $2.10Australia, Residential: $1.80Australia, Utility-scale : $1.50
What does solar PV cost?Price per installed watt
4 kw Solar Prices in Australia, 2012-2014
Solar Economics in BC, 20144 kW @ $2.60 per watt
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase3% finance
Cost per watt $2.60 4 kW + tax $11,000 3% finance $16,650
kWh per year 4,400 30-year savings $27,112 Result +$10,462
Solar Economics in BC, 20144 kW @ $2.60 per watt
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase5% finance
Cost per watt $2.60 4 kW + tax $11,000 5% finance $21,150
kWh per year 4,400 30-year savings $27,112 Result +$6,000
Solar Economics in BC, 20144 kW @ $2.60 per watt
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase
30 year power: 132,000 kwh 0% finance $11,000 3% finance $16,6505% finance $21,150
Price @ 0% capital cost: 8.3 cents kwh Price @ 3% capital cost: 12.6 cents kwh Price @ 5% capital cost: 16.0 cents kwh
“Our research suggests that as they become cheaper, the overall (solar) costs to
consumers are poised to fall to $2.30 (a watt) by 2015 and to $1.60 by 2020.”
The disruptive potential of solar powerMcKinsey, April 2014
The SolarTsunami
The unresolved solar problem: power storage
Elon Musk is Chairman and largest shareholder in SolarCityAnd CEO of Tesla…
They are collaborating on industrial grade batteries
Tesla
BatteryTraditional
Battery
Long term self-financingValue for future purchasers
Reduced transmission lossesResiliency against power outages, earthquakes
Creates more jobs per MWh than other kinds of energyPositive climate response when electricity is gas or coal
$100 spent on imported oil$70 leaves the country
$22 goes to the oil company$3 to the credit card company, $8 to the gas station
owner.
$100 spent on renewable energy may circulate and be spent
10 times before it leaves the country, creating demand and jobs worth $1,000 in value.
By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW could be losing up to $1,000 a year
Every commercial roof could look like this, and could be earning up to $10,000 a year
5 million residents = 2 million residences1/2 million roofs x 4 kw = 2,200 gigawatt-hours a year
+ Commercial and Utility PV = 3-5,000 Gwh a year
Future demand: 70,000 GWhSolar PV = 4-7% of BC’s future summer demand
BC’s Solar Future
Dan Kammen &Ditlev Engel
Copenhagen Climate Council
2009
Potential Direct Solar Jobs in BC
5,000 GWh x 0.91 = 4,500 jobs
Thin Film Solar PV
Thin film solar
Transparent solar windows
Impact of snow’s high albedo on solar PV performanceHow much increased yield?
100% increased PV yield due to solar reflection off the snow
December 2010 Ann & Gord Baird’s Eco-Sense house, Victoria, BC
www.eco-sense.ca
9% solar charging capacity from the car’s roof
Source: Hydro Quebec
Average EV uses 18 kWh per 100 km
10,000 km = 1,800 kWh a year1.75 kW solar = 1,925 kWh a year
1.75 kW = $7,000
5% 25 year mortgage = $40 a month
10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month
2014………………
1.75 kW = $2,800
3% 25 year mortgage = $16 a month
……….2020
Solar Charging
Egypt: 7 million vehicles= 2 million tonnes of CO2 a year
7 million ELECTRIC vehicles
If each travels 10,000 km a yearAverage 20 kwh per 100 km
= 14,000 GWh a year
Solar in the Middle East
85 sq km = 14,000 GWh/year
Egypt = 1 million sq km
Egypt = 1 million sq km
Egypt = 1 million sq km
Solar PV for 7 million vehicles
= 85 sq km
Egypt = 1 million sq km
.Solar PV for 7 million vehicles
= 85 sq km
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Building a Sustainable Energy Future for British Columbia
www.bcsea.org
BCSEA 2013 www.bcsea.org
Could B.C. Become a 100% Renewable Energy Region?
GUY DAUNCEYOctober 2014University of Victoria
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c
om
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c
om
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c
om
Think Globally,
VOTE
LOCALLY
On November 15th, in BC’s Civic Elections
BRING IT HOME
THE CLIMATE CRISIS…
1. Sustainable Transportation2. Sustainable Planning &
Development3. Greenest Buildings4. Sustainable Local Economy5. Healthy Food, Healthy Nature
November 15th Five Commitments
If you want to make a difference, now would be a great time to do so.
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com