Monday 28 November, 2016

Powering Sydney’s Future Workshop

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Welcome Gerard Reiter

Executive General Manager, Asset Management

TransGrid

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Powering Sydney’s Future - Introduction

Sydney is the most

important load in the

country and it is growing

TransGrid and Ausgrid’s

electricity networks are

critical to support this growth

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High load areas

• CBD

• Inner suburbs

• Transport corridors

Key customers

• Sydney CBD

• Sydney Airport

• Port Botany

• Major rail and road links.

Powering Sydney’s Future - Introduction

Powering Sydney’s Future - Introduction

Complex network built in the 60s and 70s

Networks’ abilities to meet growing need is

degrading

Timing is critical. To have a solution in

place to meet the need we have to act

now

TransGrid and Ausgrid are committed to

an open and open-minded process to find a

reliable and efficient solution

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Powering Sydney’s Future – 2014 consultation

• 400 stakeholders representing the public, researchers, industry, government and

regulators participated in a workshop.

• TransGrid and Ausgrid committed to:

o Developing responsive network options – in the PSCR

o Grow demand management using non-network options - in the PSCR and EOI

o Playing active roles in the refinement of standards for a reliable supply at an

efficient cost - engaged with IPART

o Continue to engage and collaborate – we have and continue to do so today

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Powering Sydney’s Future Ausgrid drivers

Matthew Webb

Manager Network Risk and Planning

Ausgrid

• Approx. 200MW load

from new large

customers

• Estimated 150 ~250MW

from future large scale

redevelopment

Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers

Sydney – growth and additional loads

Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers

Sydney – growth

Forecast demand

growth peak

• Return to demand

forecast growth seen

in 2015 and 2016

• New large customer

loads driving future

growth

• Ausgrid base forecast

is consistent with BIS

Shrapnel forecast

Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers

Deteriorating fluid filled cables

• Ausgrid’s 132kV fluid filled

cables mostly installed in

1960’s and 1970’s

• Ausgrid has approx. 350km

• Repairs are complex and

time consuming

• Ausgrid has an MOU with

the EPA for reducing fluid

leaks over time

Failure

history Leaks

Test

Results

Predictive unavailability model

- History of cable failures with repair times getting longer

- Consistent leaks and poor test results requiring repairs

- All contributing to poor cable availability

Repair

Times

Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers

Deteriorating fluid filled cables

• Total cable unavailability

over past 4 years of

approximately 17%

• Cable fluid loss from leaks

has been significant

• Maintenance

requirements continue to

increase

Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers

Deteriorating fluid filled cables

Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers

Planning based on community benefit

• Network energy delivery

capacity is declining

• Customer demand for

energy is increasing

• Shortfall is expected

unserved energy (EUE)

• Trigger point - where

accumulated value of

EUE is greater than cost

of project

Project Trigger Point

TransGrid driver, proposed reliability standard and this process Anthony Englund

Group Manager, Investment Strategy and Solutions

TransGrid

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Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process

• Not operating to its full capacity

o Cable 42 CMS showed higher TR (2000s)

o Backfill sampling (to 2009)

o 1st derating - Anders & Orton review (2011)

o Full backfill sampling program (to 2016)

o 2nd derating – Anders (2016)

o Cable and joint sampling (now)

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Driver 3: Cable 41

• One of two 330kV cables, 20 km long,

built in 1970s, 40 year nominal life

Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process

Proposed new reliability standard

• About fine-tuning price/service level balance

• IPART: ‘Modified n-2 + 0.6 minutes EUSE per year at average demand’

• EUSE equivalent of 20MW (UNSW or Kensington) one hour per year

• An important, evolutionary change but…

• Capacity reductions and load growth put us in deficit from 2017

• Challenge to supply energy, major challenge to supply appropriate capacity

• Key message: we need to know what non-network solutions can deliver

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Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process

Project trigger point

Energy shortfall (MWh)

Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process

Capacity shortfall (MW)

Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process

Process

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

RIT-T process

Environmental planning process

Implementation phase

Design phase

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• PSCR subs due 13 Jan 2017

• PADR Mar/April 2017

• PADR subs due May/June 2017 (6 weeks)

• PACR July/Aug 2017

Considering all options Nalin Pahalawaththa

Group Manager, Power System Analysis

TransGrid

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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options

The planning process considers:

Reliability

Cost

Environment

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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options

In situ replacement of cables

330 kV cable replacement:

• Cable Outage – up to 2-5 years

• High costs – similar to new cable

development

• Access issues

• 4 x the capacity of 132 kV cable

132 kV cable replacement:

• Environmental risk – crossing harbour

• High costs – similar to new cable

development

• Limited improvement to network capability

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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options

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New Cables – 330 kV Vs 132 kV

• Limited Capability enhancement from

132 kV option

load growth

Network Development flexibility

• 132 kV = higher costs ($/MW)

• 132 kV = higher community &

environmental impact

132 kV Option

330 kV Option

Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options

New cables – 330 kV vs 132 kV

• Limited Capability enhancement from

132 kV option:

o Load growth

o Network development flexibility

• High costs ($/MW)

• Community and environmental impact

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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options

Route selection: Sydney’s East

• 3 out of 6 possible route options were

considered feasible (approx. 26km)

• Environmental impact on national parks

and harbour crossing

• Significant high costs due to the

geography of the area.

• Network limitations: overloading

Sydney’s North to East via 330 kV lines

Sydney

East

Sydney

North

Rookwood

Road

Sydney

West

Sydney

South

Beaconsfield

Haymarket

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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options

Route selection: Sydney’s North

• 4 out of 7 possible route options

were considered feasible (tunnels,

overhead lines, combinations)

• Environmental impact on national

parks and harbour crossing

• Significant costs due to the

geography of the area and the

length of the route

Sydney

East

Sydney

North

Rookwood

Road

Sydney

West

Sydney

South

Beaconsfield

Haymarket

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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options

Route selection: Sydney’s South

• 3 out of 9 possible route options were

considered feasible (tunnels, overhead

lines, combinations)

• Diversity issue:

o Concentrate of 330 kV supply to

CBD from one location

o Part of route is along existing 330kV

cables

• Environmental and community impact on

Georges River National Park and high

density residential area

• Similar costs to Rookwood Road option

Sydney

East

Sydney

North

Rookwood

Road

Sydney

West

Sydney

South

Beaconsfield

Haymarket

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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options

Route selection: Rookwood Road

• 13 possible route options were considered

feasible (tunnels, overhead lines,

combinations)

• Provided diversity to supply CBD area

• Utilised existing 330 kV supply capacity from

Sydney’s West to Rookwood Road

• Low costs compared with the Sydney North

and East options

• Relatively low community and environmental

impact

Sydney

East

Sydney

North

Rookwood

Road

Sydney

West

Sydney

South

Beaconsfield

Haymarket

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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options

Rookwood

Road

Options

Options 2 x 330kV

cables in

stages

2 x 330kV

cables at

once

Remediate

Cable 41

Retire

Cable 41

Operate

Cable 41

at 132kV

Decommission

Ausgrid cables

– 2 stages

Decommission

Ausgrid cables

– 1 stage

1

2

3

4

5

6

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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options

Storage Curtailment of load Embedded

generation

Alternatives to network augmentation which address a potential shortage in electricity supply

Network Solution

Non-Network Solutions

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The possiblity of non-network

David Bones

Service Group Manager – Power Strategy and Economics

GHD

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Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network

Non-network comprises of:

• Generation

• Storage

• Demand Management

Non-network components are

1. Unserved energy at risk

2. Project deferral

3. Part of the integrated project solution

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Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network

Inner Sydney’s daily

demand profile

33

Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network

Expected

unserved energy

in 2020-23

without Powering

Sydney’s Future

project

34

Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network

Examples of

non-network

options

35

Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network

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Non-network case study – 60MW, 12 Hr, 8 week options

Existing Standby Generation Central Battery Central Power Station

Powering Sydney’s Future Workshop

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