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Powering Ahead The future of low-carbon cars and fuels

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  • 1. Powering AheadThe future of low-carbon cars and fuelsDuncan Kay, Nikolas Hill and Dan NewmanRicardo-AEAApril 2013

2. bThe Royal Automobile Club Foundation for Motoring is a transport policyand research organisation which explores the economic, mobility, safety andenvironmental issues relating to roads and their users. The Foundation publishesindependent and authoritative research with which it promotes informed debateand advocates policy in the interest of the responsible motorist.RAC Foundation8991 Pall MallLondonSW1Y 5HSTel no: 020 7747 3445www.racfoundation.orgRegistered Charity No. 1002705April 2013 Copyright Royal Automobile Club Foundation for Motoring LtdThe UK Petroleum Industry Association (UKPIA) represents the interests of ninemember companies engaged in the UK oil refining and downstream industry ona range of common issues relating to refining, distribution and marketing of oilproducts, in non-competitive areas.UKPIAs role is to inform its members of proposed legislation and relateddevelopments, and to help form and advocate the industrys position.UKPIA is also an authoritative source of information or reference on the UKdownstream industry. 3. cPowering AheadThe future of low-carbon cars and fuelsDuncan Kay, Nikolas Hill and Dan NewmanRicardo-AEAApril 2013 4. iAbout the AuthorsDuncan Kay is a senior technical consultant for Ricardo-AEA and has abackground of 16 years experience in the automotive sector, working as aresearch and development engineer developing new technologies to improvefuel economy and reduce emissions from passenger cars. Since leaving theindustry he has spent the last 5 years advising and consulting on a widerange of transport issues, particularly analysis of the automotive industry andtransport greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Duncan has led studies for theLow Carbon Vehicle Partnership, the European Environment Agency and theEuropean Commission amongst others. In 2012, he completed a study for theJoint Research Council of the European Commission examining the role ofresearch and development in maintaining the competitiveness of the Europeanautomotive industry.Nik Hill is Ricardo-AEAs Knowledge Leader for Transport Technology andFuels and has over 13 years of experience of consultancy project work ontransportation issues for a range of public and private sector clients. He hasparticular expertise in transport emissions, low-carbon vehicle technologiesand fuels, and in developing models to simulate future emissions trajectories.Niks expertise includes assessing the energy and environmental impacts oftransport, including model development, life cycle analysis and the economicevaluation of future vehicle technologies and fuels. Nik has led a number ofinfluential projects for the UK government and European Commission in recentyears, one of which was a high-profile European Commission project to identifyand analyse potential options for a long-term policy framework to reducetransport greenhouse gas emissions out to 2050.Dan Newman is a consultant for Ricardo-AEA with over two years ofexperience on sustainable transport projects for both governments and theprivate sector. Dan has particular expertise in battery/hybrid electric vehiclesand natural gas fuelled vehicles. He has been involved in a range of work forthe European Commission and has recently been instrumental in investigatingthe effect of environmental regulations and standards on vehicle prices overthe past 15 years. Dan has led tasks assessing the impact of informationcommunications technology (ICT) of the large-scale deployment of batteryelectric vehicles for the European Commission, and has modelled how naturalgas can contribute to achieving cost-effective greenhouse gas emissionsreductions across the European transportation sector. 5. iiAcknowledgementsThe authors would like to thank Prof. Stephen Glaister of the RACFoundation and Nick Vandervell of the UK Petroleum Industry Association forcommissioning this work and providing valuable input and advice. Particularthanks are also due to Luca Lytton for his useful comments and efforts inthe design and preparation of this report and to other members of the RACFoundation (David Quarmby and Philip Gomm) and UKPIA (Nunzia Florio,Hugh Tucker and Chris Hunt), as well as Ben Kennington for his excellent andthorough proofreading of the final draft. 6. iiiContentsViewpointviiiExecutive summary xiiThe Challenge 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Meeting UK greenhouse gas reduction targets 21.3 Road transports contribution globally 61.4 Europe and the UKs role 8The Policy Context 112.1 Introduction 112.2 European transport and fuel policy 122.3 Existing UK policy framework 202.4 Future policy changes 352.5 Conclusions 41Future Fuels 433.1 Introduction 433.2 Review of fuels 453.3 Comparison of fuels 58Future Vehicles 634.1 Overview 644.2 Review of vehicle technologies 674.3 Further improving internal-combustion engine and transmission technology 754.4 Weight, drag and rolling resistance reduction 784.5 Powertrain electrification 834.6 Real-world emissions and driving style 914.7 Comparison of technologies 92Predicted Market Shares of Future Technologies and Fuels 975.1 Predicted market shares of future technologies 1015.2 Predicted future mix of fuels 11212345 7. iv5.3 Assessment of the key sensitivities 1175.4 Analysis of the wider factors affecting uptake 1195.5 Evolution or revolution? 125Conclusions and Future Potential 127References13366 8. vList of AbbreviationsACEA European Automobile Manufacturers Association (Association desConstructeurs Europens dAutomobiles)AFV alternative fuel vehicleBEV battery electric vehicleBRIC Brazil, Russia, India and ChinaB7 diesel with a FAME content of up to 7% by volumeB10 diesel with a FAME content of up to 10% by volumeB30 diesel with a FAME content of up to 30% by volumeBio-CNG bio-compressed natural gas, biomethaneBSG belt-driven starter-generatorBSI British Standards InstituteCARS21 Competitive Automotive Regulatory System for the 21st centuryCCC Committee on Climate ChangeCCS carbon capture and storageCEN European Committee for Standardisation (Comit Europen de Normalisation)CFRP carbon-fibre-reinforced plasticsCNG compressed natural gasCO2carbon dioxideCO2e carbon dioxide equivalentCTL coal to liquidDECC Department of Energy & Climate ChangeDefra Department for Environment, Food and Rural AffairsDfT Department for TransportE5 petrol with up to 5% ethanol by volumeE10 petrol with up to 10% ethanol by volumeE85 petrol with up to 85% ethanol by volumeE100 pure bioethanolEARPA European Automotive Research Partners AssociationEGR exhaust gas recirculationERTRAC European Road Transport Research Advisory CouncilETP European Technology PlatformEUCAR European Council for Automotive R&DEUROBAT Association of European Storage Battery ManufacturersEV electric vehicleFAME fatty acid methyl ester (first-generation biodiesel) 9. viFCC Future Car ChallengeFCV fuel cell vehicleFT-BTL FischerTropsch biomass to liquid refers to both the process and theresultant diesel fuelGHG greenhouse gasGTL gas to liquidHCCI homogenous charge compression ignitionHEV hybrid electric vehicleHFCV hydrogen fuel cell vehicleHGV heavy goods vehicleHMRC HM Revenue & CustomsHVO hydrotreated vegetable oilICE internal-combustion engineIEA International Energy AgencyIFS Institute for Fiscal StudiesILUC indirect land-use changeIMF International Monetary FundIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeJRC Joint Research Council (of the European Commission)LCVIP Low Carbon Vehicles Innovation PlatformLCVPPP Low Carbon Vehicle Public Procurement ProgrammeLDV light-duty vehicleLBM liquid biomethaneLiPF6 lithium hexafluorophosphate, used in battery chemistryLFP lithiumiron phosphate, used in battery chemistryLMO lithiummanganese oxide, used in battery chemistryLMP lithiummetal polymer, used in battery chemistryLNG liquefied natural gasLPG liquefied petroleum gasLTO lithiumtitanate oxide, used in battery chemistryMJ megajoulesMPV multipurpose vehicleNCA lithiumnickel cobalt aluminium oxide, used in battery chemistryNEDC New European Drive CycleNiCd nickelcadmium, used in battery chemistryNiMH nickelmetal hydride, used in battery chemistryNMC lithiumnickel manganese cobalt oxide, used in battery chemistry 10. viiOECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentOEM original equipment manufacturerOLEV Office for Low Emission VehiclesPEM polymer electrolyte membranePEMS portable emissions measurement systemPFCC Polymer Fuel Cells ChallengePHEV plug-in hybrid electric vehiclePICG Plug-in Car GrantPIP Plugged-in PlacesR&D research and developmentRED Renewable Energy DirectiveREEV range-extended electric vehicleRPI Retail Prices IndexRTFC Renewable Transport Fuel CertificatesRTFO Renewable Transport Fuels ObligationSMMT Society of Motor Manufacturers and TradersSULTAN SUstainabLe TrANsport illustrative scenario toolTMO transition metal oxide, used in battery chemistryTPMS tyre pressure monitoring systemsTSB Technology Strategy BoardTTW tank-to-wheelTWh terawatt-hoursULCVDP Ultra Low Carbon Vehicle Demonstrator ProgrammeUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeVCA Vehicle Certification AgencyVED Vehicle Excise DutyWBCSD World Business Council for Sustainable DevelopmentWLTP Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test ProcedureWTT well-to-tankWTW well-to-wheel 11. viiiViewpointIn 2007, HM Treasury published the seminal King Review of low-carbon cars.1Its aim was to undertake an independent review to examine the vehicle andfuel technologies which over the next 25years could help to decarbonise roadtransport, particularly cars.Much has happened in the low-carbon vehicle sphere in the six years thathave now passed: conventional new car carbon dioxide (CO2) emissionshave decreased by almost 20%, from 164.9g/km in 2007 to 133.1g/km in2012; vehicle manufacturers are now offering an increasing range of electricvehicles,