Powering sydneys future workshop

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Transcript of Powering sydneys future workshop

  1. 1. Monday 28 November, 2016 Powering Sydneys Future Workshop 1
  2. 2. Welcome Gerard Reiter Executive General Manager, Asset Management TransGrid 2
  3. 3. Powering Sydneys Future - Introduction Sydney is the most important load in the country and it is growing TransGrid and Ausgrids electricity networks are critical to support this growth 3
  4. 4. High load areas CBD Inner suburbs Transport corridors Key customers Sydney CBD Sydney Airport Port Botany Major rail and road links. Powering Sydneys Future - Introduction
  5. 5. Powering Sydneys Future - Introduction Complex network built in the 60s and 70s Networks abilities to meet growing need is degrading Timing is critical. To have a solution in place to meet the need we have to act now TransGrid and Ausgrid are committed to an open and open-minded process to find a reliable and efficient solution 5
  6. 6. Powering Sydneys Future 2014 consultation 400 stakeholders representing the public, researchers, industry, government and regulators participated in a workshop. TransGrid and Ausgrid committed to: o Developing responsive network options in the PSCR o Grow demand management using non-network options - in the PSCR and EOI o Playing active roles in the refinement of standards for a reliable supply at an efficient cost - engaged with IPART o Continue to engage and collaborate we have and continue to do so today 6
  7. 7. Powering Sydneys Future Ausgrid drivers Matthew Webb Manager Network Risk and Planning Ausgrid
  8. 8. Approx. 200MW load from new large customers Estimated 150 ~250MW from future large scale redevelopment Powering Sydneys Future Ausgrid drivers Sydney growth and additional loads
  9. 9. Powering Sydneys Future Ausgrid drivers Sydney growth Forecast demand growth peak Return to demand forecast growth seen in 2015 and 2016 New large customer loads driving future growth Ausgrid base forecast is consistent with BIS Shrapnel forecast
  10. 10. Powering Sydneys Future Ausgrid drivers Deteriorating fluid filled cables Ausgrids 132kV fluid filled cables mostly installed in 1960s and 1970s Ausgrid has approx. 350km Repairs are complex and time consuming Ausgrid has an MOU with the EPA for reducing fluid leaks over time
  11. 11. Failure history Leaks Test Results Predictive unavailability model - History of cable failures with repair times getting longer - Consistent leaks and poor test results requiring repairs - All contributing to poor cable availability Repair Times Powering Sydneys Future Ausgrid drivers Deteriorating fluid filled cables
  12. 12. Total cable unavailability over past 4 years of approximately 17% Cable fluid loss from leaks has been significant Maintenance requirements continue to increase Powering Sydneys Future Ausgrid drivers Deteriorating fluid filled cables
  13. 13. Powering Sydneys Future Ausgrid drivers Planning based on community benefit Network energy delivery capacity is declining Customer demand for energy is increasing Shortfall is expected unserved energy (EUE) Trigger point - where accumulated value of EUE is greater than cost of project Project Trigger Point
  14. 14. TransGrid driver, proposed reliability standard and this process Anthony Englund Group Manager, Investment Strategy and Solutions TransGrid 14
  15. 15. Powering Sydneys Future TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process Not operating to its full capacity o Cable 42 CMS showed higher TR (2000s) o Backfill sampling (to 2009) o 1st derating - Anders & Orton review (2011) o Full backfill sampling program (to 2016) o 2nd derating Anders (2016) o Cable and joint sampling (now) 15 Driver 3: Cable 41 One of two 330kV cables, 20 km long, built in 1970s, 40 year nominal life
  16. 16. Powering Sydneys Future TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process Proposed new reliability standard About fine-tuning price/service level balance IPART: Modified n-2 + 0.6 minutes EUSE per year at average demand EUSE equivalent of 20MW (UNSW or Kensington) one hour per year An important, evolutionary change but Capacity reductions and load growth put us in deficit from 2017 Challenge to supply energy, major challenge to supply appropriate capacity Key message: we need to know what non-network solutions can deliver 16
  17. 17. Powering Sydneys Future TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process Project trigger point Energy shortfall (MWh)
  18. 18. Powering Sydneys Future TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process Capacity shortfall (MW)
  19. 19. Powering Sydneys Future TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process Process 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 RIT-T process Environmental planning process Implementation phase Design phase 19 PSCR subs due 13 Jan 2017 PADR Mar/April 2017 PADR subs due May/June 2017 (6 weeks) PACR July/Aug 2017
  20. 20. Considering all options Nalin Pahalawaththa Group Manager, Power System Analysis TransGrid 20
  21. 21. Powering Sydneys Future Considering all options The planning process considers: Reliability Cost Environment 21
  22. 22. Powering Sydneys Future Considering all options In situ replacement of cables 330 kV cable replacement: Cable Outage up to 2-5 years High costs similar to new cable development Access issues 4 x the capacity of 132 kV cable 132 kV cable replacement: Environmental risk crossing harbour High costs similar to new cable development Limited improvement to network capability 22
  23. 23. Powering Sydneys Future Considering all options 23 New Cables 330 kV Vs 132 kV Limited Capability enhancement from 132 kV option load growth Network Development flexibility 132 kV = higher costs ($/MW) 132 kV = higher community & environmental impact 132 kV Option 330 kV Option
  24. 24. Powering Sydneys Future Considering all options New cables 330 kV vs 132 kV Limited Capability enhancement from 132 kV option: o Load growth o Network development flexibility High costs ($/MW) Community and environmental impact 24
  25. 25. Powering Sydneys Future Considering all options Route selection: Sydneys East 3 out of 6 possible route options were considered feasible (approx. 26km) Environmental impact on national parks and harbour crossing Significant high costs due to the geography of the area. Network limitations: overloading Sydneys North to East via 330 kV lines Sydney East Sydney North Rookwood Road Sydney West Sydney South Beaconsfield Haymarket 25
  26. 26. Powering Sydneys Future Considering all options Route selection: Sydneys North 4 out of 7 possible route options were considered feasible (tunnels, overhead lines, combinations) Environmental impact on national parks and harbour crossing Significant costs due to the geography of the area and the length of the route Sydney East Sydney North Rookwood Road Sydney West Sydney South Beaconsfield Haymarket 26
  27. 27. Powering Sydneys Future Considering all options Route selection: Sydneys South 3 out of 9 possible route options were considered feasible (tunnels, overhead lines, combinations) Diversity issue: o Concentrate of 330 kV supply to CBD from one location o Part of route is along existing 330kV cables Environmental and community impact on Georges River National Park and high density residential area Similar costs to Rookwood Road option Sydney East Sydney North Rookwood Road Sydney West Sydney South Beaconsfield Haymarket 27
  28. 28. Powering Sydneys Future Considering all options Route selection: Rookwood Road 13 possible route options were considered feasible (tunnels, overhead lines, combinations) Provided diversity to supply CBD area Utilised existing 330 kV supply capacity from Sydneys West to Rookwood Road Low costs compared with the Sydney North and East options Relatively low community and environmental impact Sydney East Sydney North Rookwood Road Sydney West Sydney South Beaconsfield Haymarket 28
  29. 29. Powering Sydneys Future Considering all options Rookwood Road Options Options 2 x 330kV cables in stages 2 x 330kV cables at once Remediate Cable 41 Retire Cable 41 Operate Cable 41 at 132kV Decommission Ausgrid cables 2 stages Decommission Ausgrid cables 1 stage 1 2 3 4 5 6 29
  30. 30. Powering Sydneys Future Considering all options Storage Curtailment of load Embedded generation Alternatives to network augmentation which address a potential shortage in electricity supply Network Solution Non-Network Solutions 30
  31. 31. The possiblity of non-network David Bones Service Group Manager Power Strategy and Economics GHD 31
  32. 32. Powering Sydneys Future The possibility of non-network Non-network comprises of: Generation Storage Demand Management Non-network components are 1. Unserved energy at risk 2. Project deferral 3. Part of the integrated project solution 32
  33. 33. Powering Sydneys Future The possibility of non-network Inner Sydneys daily demand profile 33
  34. 34. Powering Sydneys Future The possibility of non-network Expected unserved energy in 2020-23 without Powering Sydneys Future project 34
  35. 35. Powering Sydneys Future The possibility of non-network Examples of non-network options 35
  36. 36. Powering Sydneys Future The possibility of non-network 36 Non-network case study 60MW, 12 Hr, 8 week options Existing Standby Generation Central Battery Central Power Station
  37. 37. Powering Sydneys Future Workshop 37