Technological Trends of the Future: Next Era of ComputingKerrie Holley, IBM Fellow

GTO identifies significant technology trends early.

It looks for high impact disruptive technologies

leading to game changing products and services

over

a 3-10 year horizon.

Technology thresholds identified in a GTO

demonstrate their influence on clients,

enterprises, and industries, and have high

potential to create new businesses.

IBM’s Global Technology Outlook (GTO)

IBM’s

GTO

Genetic

Map

Technology Drivers

Mobile - Social – Cloud -

Analytics / Big Data

Increasing Complexity / Yet More Consumable

� Data and data management

� Workloads

� Discovering insights

� Interaction

Fast Pace

� Evolving business eco-system

� Dynamic scalability

� Minimize time to value

� Keeping pace with technology and globalization

Contextual Overload

� Proliferation of sensors and devices

� Demand for personalization

� Just in time

Growing Scale / Lower Barrier of Entry

� Users

� Transactions

� Computations

� Data

Mega Trends

IBM’s 5 in 5

Touch: You will be able to feel through your phone

Sight: A pixel will be worth a thousands words

Hearing: Computers will augment what you hear

Taste: Digital taste buds will help you eat smarter

Smell: Computers will sniff out diseases

…..the New Era

For many clients, mission critical applications have reached the point

of diminishing return

Client

Value

Diminishing Return

Many major application

categories are in

diminishing returns

– ERP

– SCM

– Batch

– Commerce

Cumulative Investment in Applications

The confluence of Social, Mobile, Analytics and Cloud has created a

perfect storm of sorts

Mobile

Cloud

Social

Internet of Things

Exponential growth in data, why does it matter?

2010

Vo

lum

e i

n E

xab

yte

s

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2015

Percentage of uncertain data

We are here

Sensors & Devices

VoIP

Enterprise Data

Social Media

Pe

rcen

t of u

nce

rtain

da

ta

100

80

60

40

20

0

Companies are not overwhelmed by too much data

scrila34@msn.com

…. constrained and limited by too little

Information in context

Top 200Customer

Job Applicant

IdentityThief

CriminalInvestigation

scrila34@msn.com

Puzzle metaphor by IBM Fellow, Jeff Jonas

Analytics and the context multiplier

Raw Data

Feature

extraction metadata

Domain linkages

Full

contextual analytics

Location risk

Occupational risk

Dietary risk

Family history

Actuarial data

Government statisticsEpidemic data

Chemical exposure

Personal financial situation

Social relationships

Travel history

Weather history

. . .

. . .

Patient records

Eras of Computing CognitiveSystems Era

Programmable Systems Era

TabulatingSystems Era

Watson to provide the foundation for a completely new form of client

experience

Watson can assist an Oncologist by:

� Synthesizing disparate data – patient records, clinician notes, test results, pathology reports, etc.

� Identifying missing pieces of data recommending tests with complete transparency

� Providing evidence-based options to help physicians efforts to improve quality of care and patient experience

IBM Watson brings together transformational technologies to drive

optimized outcomes ushering in the new era

99%

60%

10%

Understands

natural

language and

human speech

Adapts and

Learns from user

selections and

responses

Generates and

evaluates

hypothesis for

better outcomes

3

21

Key Technologies in the Cognitive Computing Era

Software Defined Environments

Atomic and Nano-scale

Data-centricSystems

Visual Analyticsand Interaction

Context and Learning 1

2

3

4

5

Major Waves of Technology – 4th Era of IT

Back OfficeComputing

Client Server PC - 1981

World Wide Web and eBusiness

Confluence of Social Mobile Cloud Analytics / Big Data

90’s80’s60’s We are here

Trend: Mobility is driving new consumption patterns

Context Fusion

Apps are used to perform a single task,

based on the user's context (role, location,

...)

App-centric

Users increasingly demonstrate a

preference for apps that are downloaded

from trusted source over mobile web

browsing

Apps Chained

50% of mobile sessions are composed of

sequences of apps, manually "integrated"

by the user

New consumption patterns place users at the center. Mobile provides a seamless experience across all channels (e.g., retail, banking, call centers).

Social

Chat

Tablet

Smartphone

Web

Telephone

Physical WorldSmart TV

Augmented

Reality

Wearable

Devices

Mobiity, cloud, social and analytics is enabling companies to re-

imagine their business models to capture new value

Systems of Record

HTTP Notification

Data sync

Scalable Delivery Infrastructure

Background Activity & Monitoring

Data Synchronization

Service Composition

Metadata Repository

User and services security

Engagement Capabilities

Social and Collaboration

Cross-endpoint Support

Personalization

ContextualizationContinuous Client

Experience

ERPERPLegacy

DB

Legacy

DB

CRMCRM HRHR

Scalable DeliveryInfrastructure

Trend: Born on the Internet enterprise companies have emerged

• New models for collaboration and life cycle management for applications and

code

• Cloud for Internal IT and product delivery

• Customer experience and business experiences delivered through software as

a service

• They use a self-service sales model with scalable subscription pricing models

Trend: New User and App / API Economy has emerged� New user: fundamental Shifts in Devices and Usage

– PC � Mobile

– Search � Social

– Traveling Heavy � Traveling Light

– Miminal Insight � Contextual

– Standard Interfaces � Imagination of User Interfaces

� Application economy of the enterprise is changing: bring

your own applications, data and device to the enterprise

– Unaware � Incorporated Location Services

– “Toy Apps” � Business Level Capabilities

– Monolithic applications � Mobile Self-Service

Marketplaces

Trend: The New Developer has emerged in the enterprise

� The new developer is taking control over the corporation

with Open Source

� Prosumers are becoming the newest developers

� The new developer is API driven

� The new developer is API driven

– APIs are changing the face of development and the way

products and services are delivered

– Create exposure and revenue

– Foster new affifliate and distribution models

– Allow companies to open their resources in a secure and

controlled way

– Create near real time access to cross division resources

Cloud, mobile and social are fueling the hyper-growth of API-centric,

new business as-a-service economies

TREND:A new as-a-service

economy is

emerging

� Business functions are delivered as API-centric services,

enabling businesses to co-create customer value with speed

and scale

� Born-on-the-web companies are co-creating value through

APIs at an accelerated pace and enterprises are starting to

explore them

� Agile, scalable, and consumable business as-a-service will shift

the business services market similar to the shift of IT delivery

through cloud

APIs as a strategic business tool for value co-creation and front-office

digitization is growing in Fortune 1000 companies

� API-centric model is at the core of

mature born-on-the-web companies

like Amazon, Google, and facebook

� Registrations in Programmable Web

have more than doubled this year.

At that pace we could see more

than 100,000 APIs registered by

2016.

� By 2014, Gartner predicts that 75%

of Fortune 1000 companies will

expose some form of APIs

+80B API Invocations per day APIs registered across amultitude of business areas

Integrated Business

Functions

As-a-service delivery

Composable Web

Short InnovationLifecycle

API-centric

Business Services

API API

Packaged Applications

Custom Development

Long Project Planning and Development

Business

Solutions

The API-centric, as-a-Service delivery is disrupting the consumption

of business services as Cloud disrupted the IT consumption model

“$7bn worth of items on eBay through APIs”Mark Carges (Ebay CTO)

Web APIs are the new,

fast-growing business

channel

Businesses

Are Evolving

stores (800) ###s web sites

Not having an APIs will be like not having a Web Site in the 90s

“$7bn worth of items on eBay through APIs”Mark Carges (Ebay CTO)

The API which has easily 10 times more traffic then the website, has been really very

important to us.”Biz Stone (Co-founder, Twitter)

“The adoption of Amazon’s Web services is currently driving more network activity

then everything Amazon does through their traditional web sites.”Jeff Bar (Amazon evangelist) / Dion Hinchcliffe (Journalist)

The Web beyond the Browser

New types of systems are being developed using different

engagement models

Systems of Engagement

� Focus on Agility and Rapid Scale

� Workload mobility

� Homogeneous standardization

� Management simplicity

� Shared infrastructure

� Pay as you go capacity

� Social platforms and mobility

� user interface

Systems of Record

� Focus on Transactional integrity

� Optimized performance

� Quality of Service

� Data Security

� Typically a dedicated infrastructure

� Pre-allocated capacity

Questions? : Kerrie holley ; klholley@us.ibm.com

twitter.com/kerrieh

http://www.facebook.com/KerrieHolleyIBM

http://www-03.ibm.com/developerworks/blogs/page/ClientSOA