The race for the American presidency and the risks for European security Research by Sarah Manney and Caitlyn Littlepage

at the International Centre for Defence and Securityin Tallinn, Estonia

Balance

The upcoming U.S. elections are a crossroads for American security guarantees to Europe.

In light of Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine, escalating military exercises in the Baltic sea and along Russia’s northwestern border portend ill for the three Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. These NATO members depend in large part on security guarantees from their Western allies, particularly America, to deter Russian aggression. This election cycle, the value of America’s international commitments and its critical stance towards Russia has been called into question. In particular, Republican nominee Donald Trump’s proposed foreign policy would jeopardize more than half a century of security cooperation and leave the Baltic states dangling dangerously in Russia’s jaws.

What are the potential consequences of the U.S. election on Baltic security?

Our task at ICDS was to compile a ‘dossier’ on the two presidential candidates with regards to their prospect ive pres ident ia l act ions concerning Europe and the Baltics. The conclusion we drew was dramatic, but not shocking. Donald Trump’s reckless temperament, profit-driven concept of international alliances, and abundant Russ ia connect ions would harm deterrence, while Hillary Clinton’s hawkish disposition, critical rhetoric towards Vladimir Putin, and ample policy experience would largely advance it.

Work at ICDS

ICDS is a defence and security think tank partly funded by the Estonian government, housed in a small modern office just outside of Tallinn City Centre. The organization is directed by former Estonian Minister of Defence Jüri Luik and welcomes diplomats from around the world. While we were there, we got to hear from former U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan and Stanford Alum Matthew Bryza, as well as a number of academics focused on Russia. We learned about so much at ICDS, including:

• Domestic threats facing Eastern European countries • NATO cooperation and shared missions • Russian covert operations in the near-abroad • Cybersecurity • Consequences of international events like Brexit,

the U.S. election, the Turkish coup

Estonia (Eesti)

Tallinn

Fun and Travel

How does the Russian media portray the candidates?

We also looked at how the candidates are portrayed in the Russian media: For what are they criticized or faulted? Is there a strong bias towards either candidate? The results we found were as expected: Donald Trump is showered with considerable praise for h i s supposed l eade rsh ip and command o fAmer ican popu la r opinion, while Hillary Clinton is criticized for, well, just about everything.

PM’s Office

Helsinki, Finland

Estonian cuisine

Midsummer’s Eve

Saint Petersburg, Russia

Baltics in the