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PE

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75

eqspertis azri

75

vladimer papava

saqarTvelos ekonomika -

optimizmidan primitivizmamde

eqspertis azri

vladimer papava

saqarTvelos ekonomika -optimizmidan primitivizmamde

75

2017

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉGEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

publikacia daibeWda TurqeTis TanamSromlobisa da koordinaciis saagentos finansuri mxardaWeriT.

teqnikuri redaqtori: artem meliq-nubarovi

saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis gareSe publikaciis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos aranairi, maT Soris eleqtronuli an meqanikuri, formiT. gamocemaSi gamoTqmuli mosazrebebi da daskvnebi ekuTvnis avtors/ebs da SeiZleba ar asaxavdes saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis

fondis Tvalsazriss.

© saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2017 weli

ISSN 1512-4835 ISBN 978-9941-0-9766-9

Sesavali

2016 wlis saparlamento arCevnebma cxadyo, rom mom­devno (iseve, rogorc wina) oTxi weli `ganwirulia~ saxe lis­uflebo partiis _ ̀ qarTuli ocnebis~ (amJamad ukve sakonsti­tucio umravlesobiT) da yofili saxelisuflebo, nawilobriv saxelSecvlili, partiis _ `erTiani nacionaluri moZraobis~ (kvlav saparlamento umciresobiT) dapirispirebisaTvis. par­lamentSi moxvedrili mesame partiis _ `saqarTvelos patri­otTa aliansis~ mcirericxovan fraqcias ki saparlamento gadawyvetilebebze raime zegavlena ver eqneba.

moqmedi da yofili saxelisuflebo partiebis sapar­lamento dapirispireba jer kidev 2012 wlis saparlamento arCevnebis Semdeg daiwyo.

2012 wlis am arCevnebis Semdeg `qarTuli ocnebis~ amomrCeveli eloda, rom saqarTveloSi daiwyeboda samarT­lianobis aRdgenis Seuqcevadi procesi, anu is, risTvisac amomrCevelma xma ̀ qarTul ocnebas~ misca. samwuxarod, yvela­saTvis moulodnelad, ̀ qarTuli ocnebis~ liderebma sajarod gamoacxades, rom am arCevnebis Semdeg qveyanaSi unda dawye­buliyo kohabitaciis procesi, anu arCevnebSi gamarjvebuli `qarTuli ocnebis~ da damarcxebuli `erTiani nacionaluri moZraobis~ Tanaarseboba1. es ar yofila qarTuli sazogadoe­bis umravlesobis dakveTa. kohabitacia dasavleTis, aSS­isa da evrokavSiris iniciativa iyo2.

Tavis mxriv, kohabitaciiT aixsna, rom saxelmwifo ins­titutebSi `qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobas sakadro cvlilebe­bi ar gautarebia, ris Sedegadac 2016 wlisaTvis kohabitacia, rogorc aseTi, dasrulda da mis nacvlad saxezea ori, erTi SexedviT gansxvavebuli ideologiis matarebeli politikuri Zalis _ `qarTul ocnebis~ da `erTiani nacionaluri moZ­raobis~ _ saxelisuflebo integracia, rac imaSic gamoixata, rom am ukanaskneli partiis ideuri mimdevrebi mravlad arian warmodgenili saministroebis da uwyebebis aparatebSi, rom araferi vTqvaT zeda samTavrobo eSelonebsa da parlamentis sakonstitucio umravlesobaze.

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2012 da 2016 wlebis winasaarCevno periodebSi `qar­Tulma ocnebam~ araerTi dapireba misca Tavis amomrCevels, gansakuTrebul yuradRebas maT Soris ekonomikuri xasiaTis dapirebebi imsaxurebda, Tumca maTi Sesruleba obieqtur Tu subieqtur mizezTa gamo ver (an jerjerobiT ver) moxerxda.

`qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobis ekonomikuri xedva da mis mier gatarebuli ekonomikuri politika SeiZleba or nawilad davyoT da pirobiTad vuwodoT `ekonomikuri opti­mizmi~ da `ekonomikuri primitivizmi~. ganvixiloT TiToeuli maTganis yvelaze mniSvnelovani momentebi.

ekonomikuri optimizmi

ocneba, rogorc aseTi, optimizms efuZneba, roca meocnebe pozitiurad fiqrobs Tavisi momavlis Sesaxeb. ami­tom sulac ar aris gasakviri, rom qarTuli sazogadoebis didi nawili `qarTuli ocnebis~ saxelis mqone politikur partias Tavidanve optimisturi ganwyobiT Sexvda.

miuxedavad imisa, rom ukve araerTi welia, rac eko­nomikuri optimizmis indeqsi gaiangariSeba3, samwuxarod, eko­nomikuri optimizmis Teoriuli safuZvlebi, jerjerobiT Seqmnili ar aris4 da is umTavresad sociologiuri kvlevis sagans warmoadgens5.

didi mniSvneloba aqvs imis xazgasmas, rom `qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobam, ekonomikuri zrdis Senelebis miuxeda­vad6, Tavidanve optimisturi xasiaTis nabijebi gadadga.

evrokavSirTan asocirebis SeTanxmeba. 2012 wlis bolo­dan xelisuflebaSi mosuli `qarTuli ocneba~ araerTi gamowvevis winaSe dadga7, romelTa Sorisac erT­erTi um­Tavresi evrokavSirTan asocirebis SeTanxmebis miRweva iyo. am ukanasknelis mniSvnelovani Semadgeneli nawili evrokav­SirTan Rrma da yovlismomcveli Tavisufali savaWro sivr­cis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebaa (DCFTA)8. `nacionaluri moZraobis~ mTavrobisaTvis ganviTarebis evropuli gza, samwuxarod, um­Tavresad artikulaciiT Semoifargleboda, xolo realuri qmedebiT yvelaferi keTdeboda imisaTvis, rom saqarTvelo ar daaxloeboda evrokavSirs9. realurad qveyanas kursi sin­gapurizaciisaken hqonda aRebuli10.

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`qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobam SeZlo is, rom saqarTve­lom 2014 wlis ivnisSi evrokavSirTan asocirebis SeTanxmebas moawera xeli11, romelic 2016 wlis 1 ivlisidan amoqmedda.

evrokavSirTan asocirebis SeTanxmebis xelmowera da evrokavSirTan Rrma da yovlismomcveli Tavisufali savaWro sivrcis SeTanxmebis amoqmedeba `qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavro­bis yvelaze mniSvnelovan pozitiur nabijad unda CaiTvalos. man, Tavis mxriv, saqarTvelos moqalaqeTa did nawilSi eko­nomikuri optimizmis gaZlierebas Seuwyo xeli.

biznesze mTavrobis araformaluri zewolis gauqmeba. ekonomikuri optimizmis safuZvels qmnida `qarTuli oc­nebis~ danapirebi, rom aRmoifxvreboda saxelmwifos mxridan biznesze araformaluri zewolis mavne praqtika, rac nacio­nalebisaTvis Cveulebrivi movlena iyo12. SeiZleba iTqvas, rom `qarTulma ocnebam~ es danapirebi13 mTlianad Seasrula.

`saqarTvelo 2020~. `qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobis eko­nomikuri optimizmis TvalsaCino magaliTs warmoadgens 2014 wels am mTavrobisve damtkicebuli `saqarTvelos socialur­ekonomikuri ganviTarebis strategia _ saqarTvelo 2020~14 (mokled _ `saqarTvelo 2020~).

`saqarTvelo 2020­is~ Tanaxmad, saqarTvelos mTav­robis ekonomikuri politika sam umTavres princips unda emyarebodes, romelTagan pirveli ekonomikis realuri seq­toris ganviTarebaze orientirebuli swrafi da efeqtiani ekonomikuri zrdis uzrunvelyofaa; meore principi inkluzi­uri ekonomikuri zrdis xelSemwyobi ekonomikuri politi­kis gatarebaSi mdgomareobs; mesame principi ki ekonomikuri ganviTarebis procesSi bunebrivi resursebis racionaluri gamoyeneba, ekologiuri usafrTxoebisa da mdgradobis uz­runvelyofa da bunebrivi kataklizmebis riskebis Tavidan acilebaa15.

am dokumentis Tanaxmad, saqarTvelos mTavrobas aq­centi unda gaekeTebina qveynis inovaciur ganviTarebaze, codnaze dafuZnebuli ekonomikis Seqmnaze, rac, ra Tqma unda, didi imedis momcemi iyo. inovaciuri biznesis xelSewyo­bisaTvis ki didi mniSvneloba aqvs programa ̀ startap saqarT­velos~ dawyebas16.

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saqarTvelos mTavrobis dadgenilebaSi, romliTac damtkicda `saqarTvelo 2020~, saministroebs da sxva samTav­robo uwyebebs miecaT davaleba, rom yoveli wlis 30 ivnisamde `saqarTvelo 2020­dan~ gamomdinere SeimuSaon saSualovadi­ani samoqmedo gegmebi17. samwuxarod, saqarTvelos mTavro­bis es davaleba ar Sesrulebula, ramac kiTxvis niSnis qveS daaye na xsenebul dokumentSi, `saqarTvelo 2020­Si~, dasax­uli miznebisa da amocanebis ganxorcielebis SesaZlebloba.

ekonomikuri primitivizmi

rogorc cnobilia, sityva `optimizmis~ antonimi aris `pesimizmi~ da ara _ `primitivizmi~. ufro metic, primiti­uloba, rogorc rTuli sakiTxis mimarT gamartivebuli mid­goma, sulac ar gamoricxavs optimizms.

ekonomikuri primitivizmis Sesaxeb araerTi mniSv­nelovani naSromi arsebobs, romelTa Soris sayuradReboa gamokvlevebi ekonomikuri anTropologiis18, anarqoprimitiv­izmis19 da libertarianizmis20 kuTxiT. ekonomikuri primiti­viz mis qarTul versias ki srulebiT gansxvavebuli safuZveli aqvs. kerZod, Tanamedrove saqarTveloSi ekonomikuri primi­tivizmiT gamowveuli Tu am privitivizmis Tanamdevi opti­mizmi umTavresad im adamianebisTvisaa damaxasiaTebeli, visac ekonomikuri mecnierebis sakmarisi codna ar aqvT.

`mTavrobis 4-punqtiani gegma~. ekonomikuri primitiviz­mis TvalsaCino magaliTs warmoadgens ukve premier­ministris rangSi giorgi kvirikaSvilis mier inicirebuli `mTavrobis 4­punqtiani gegma~. es gegma man pirvelad biznesmenebs 2016 wlis dasawyisSi gaacno 21, Tumca Tavad dokumenti werilo­biTi saxiT maSin ar arsebobda. sainteresoa, rom msjeloba am gegmis Sesaxeb Tveebis manZilze ise mimdinareobda, rom Tavad gegma dawerili arc ki yofila. samwuxarod, gagrZelda saqarTveloSi nacionaluri moZraobis mTavrobis damkvidre­buli maxinji tradicia _ ararsebuli dokumentebis sajaro prezentacia. kerZod, rogorc pirveli aseTi sajaro prezen­taciis uSualo damswre vadastureb, rom jer kidev 2004 wlis zafxulSi imdroindelma premier­ministrma warmoad­

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gina axali, Tumca prezentaciis droisaTvis jer ardawerili sagadasaxado kodeqsi22.

`mTavrobis 4­punqtiani gegma~, werilobiTi saxiT, pirvelad 2016 wlis Semodgomis saparlamento arCevnebisa­Tvis partia `qarTuli ocnebis~ momzadebuli winasaarCev­no programis _ `Tavisufleba, swrafi ganviTareba, keTil­dReoba~ _ boloSi gamoCnda23. mogvianebiT ki, saparlamento arCevnebSi gamarjvebuli `qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobis imave saxel wodebis mqone samTavrobo programaSic Sevida24.

`mTavrobis 4­punqtiani gegmis~ punqtebia: 1. ekonomi­kuri reforma; 2. ganaTlebis reforma; 3. sivrciTi mowyoba; 4. mmarTvelobis reforma.

punqti 1­is qvakuTxeds warmoadgens biznesis gaTa­visufleba mogebis gadasaxadisagan, mogebis reinvestirebis SemTxvevaSi.

punqti 2­is mixedviT, profesiuli ganaTlebis siste­mam orientacia unda aiRos swavlebis dualur, anu samuSaoze dafuZnebul midgomaze, romlis Tanaxmadac, saswavlebeli da potenciuri damsaqmebeli erToblivad ganaxorcieleben sas­wavlo programebs; sauniversiteto ganaTleba ki orientire­buli iqneba ekonomikis faqtobriv saWiroebebze, rac unda gamovlindes Sromis bazris analizis gziT.

punqti 3­is Tanaxmad, qveynis sivrciTma mowyobam xeli unda Seuwyos qalaqebisa da soflebis gaazrebul ganaSeniane­bas, regionebis damakavSirebeli satransporto qselis ganvi­Tarebas, romlis saboloo mizania saqarTvelo gaxdes oTxi sezonis turistuli qveyana.

punqti 4 ki gulisxmobs mmarTvelobis efeqtianobis gazrdas.

ekonomikis didi codna ar aris saWiro imisTvis, rom dainaxo sxvaoba zemoxsenebul ̀ saqarTvelo 2020­sa~ da ̀ mTav­robis 4­punqtiani gegmas~ Soris: met­naklebad srulyofili, qveynis inovaciur ganviTarebaze orientirebuli strategia dayvanilia 4 fragmentul punqtze.

mTavari problema ki isaa, rom `mTavrobis 4­punqtiani gegma~ xels Seuwyobs saqarTveloSi aramwarmoebluri da imav droulad momxmarebluri ekonomikis modelis25 SenarCu­

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neba­ganmtkicebas. samwuxarod, ekonomikis realuri seqtoris ganuviTareblobis gamo qveyana ufro mets moixmars, vidre Tavad awarmoebs, ris Sedegadac wlebis ganmavlobaSi importi eqsports saSualod 3­4­jer aRemateba, xolo samomxmareblo kalaTaSi (iseve, rogorc sasursaTo kalaTaSi) importuli produqcia saSualod 80%­is donezea.

am viTarebaSi, `mTavrobis 4­punqtiani gegmis~ pirve­li punqti gaaZlierebs saqarTveloSi arsebul firmebs, romelTa umravlesobac damaxasiaTebelia aramwarmoebluri da imavdroulad momxmarebluri ekonomikisaTvis. `estonuri modelis~ saxeliT cnobili sistema, roca mogebis gadasaxa­diT reinvestirebuli mogeba ar daibegreba finansuri seq­toris (komerciul bankebi, sakredito kavSirebi, sadazRvevo organizaciebi, mikrosafinanso organizaciebi da lombarde­bi) garda, saqarTveloSi ZalaSi Sevida 2017 wlidan, xolo finansuri seqtorze gavrceldeba 2019 wlidan26. gaugebaria, Tu ratom unda mieces sagadasaxado SeRavaTi mogebis rein­vestirebisaTvis restornebsa da sastumroebs, rom araferi vTqvaT finansur seqtorze: isini xom am SeRavaTis gareSec mravladaa saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi. umjobesi iyo es saga­dasaxado SeRavaTi miscemoda realuri seqtoris mxolod im firmebs, romlebic inovaciuri teqnologiebis gamoyenebis mizniT moaxdendnen mogebis reinvestirebas. am tipis firmebis ukiduresi simwiris gaTvaliswinebiT, mogebis gadasaxadis xsenebuli estonuri modeli xels Seuwyobs saqarTveloSi isev da isev ekonomikis momxmarebluri struqturis gamyare­bas da aranair stimuls ar miscems TiTqmis ararsebul ino­vaciur realur seqtors.

sayuradReboa, rom xsenebuli estonuri modeli ara­nair SeRavaTs ar aZlevs saSualo da mcire bizness, xolo msxvil biznesSi gaarTulebs administrirebas, radganac me­warmeebs ukve yovelTviurad eqnebaT finansTa saministros Semosavlebis samsaxurSi sagadasaxado deklaraciebi warsad­geni27.

aq erTi momenticaa gasaxsenebeli: araTu mxolod erTi saxeobis sagadasaxado SeRavaTi, aramed erTad aRebuli TiTqmis yvela sagadasaxado da yvelanairi sxva SesaZlo SeRa­vaTic, romelic gamoiyeneba Tavisufal ekonomikur zonaSi,

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sulac ar aris sakmarisi ekonomikis Tundac mocemul zonaSi warmatebuli ganviTarebisaTvis, rasac, samwuxarod, rogorc mosalodneli iyo, Tavad saqarTvelos gamocdilebac adas­turebs28.

imave Sinaarsobrivi datvirTvisaa `mTavrobis 4­pun­qtiani gegmis~ meore punqtic. isev da isev imis gaTval­iswinebiT, rom saqarTveloSi TiTqmis ar aris inovaciuri ekonomikis realuri seqtori, profesiuli ganaTlebis siste­mis orientacia mxolod samuSaoze dafuZnebul swavlebis midgomaze, xolo sauniversiteto ganaTlebis orientacia _ mxolod ekonomikis faqtobriv saWiroebebze arc arasdors uzrunvelyofs codnaze dafuZnebuli ekonomikisaTvis Sesa­bamisi specialistebis momzadebas29. maSasadame, profesiuli da sauniversiteto ganaTlebis orientacia ekonomikis mxo­lod mimdinare da ara perspeqtiul saWiroebebze xels Seu­wyobs ekonomikis saqarTvelos momxmarebluri struqturis ganmtkicebas.

`mTavrobis 4­punqtiani gegmis~ mesame punqtis mixed­viT, qveynis sivrciTma mowyobam xeli unda Seuwyos imas, rom saqarTvelo gaxdes oTxi sezonis turistuli qveyana. sayurad Reboa, rom saqarTvelos ekonomikisaTvis turizmis prioritetulobis sakiTxi aqtualuri iyo rogorc naciona­luri moZraobis30, ise ̀ qarTuli ocnebis~31 mTavrobebisaTvis. imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom, rogorc zemoT aRiniSna, saqarT­velos samomxmareblo da sasursaTo kalaTebSi importul saqonels 80% ukavia, qveyanaSi Camosuli turistebisaTvis, rogorc damatebiTi momxmareblebisTvis, unda ganxorciel­des damatebiTi importi, radgan saqarTvelo awarmoebs mox­marebuli sursaTis mxolod 20%­s da, samwuxarod, saerTod ar awarmoebs turistebis qveynis SigniT gadaadgilebisaTvis saWiro satransporto saSualebebsa da sawvavs. amitom mTav­robis zrunva mxolod da mxolod turizmis ganviTarebaze namdvilad ar uwyobs xels qveynis ekonomikis mravalferovan ganviTarebas da ar aZlierebs momxmarebluri ekonomikisa­Tvis damaxasiaTebel tendenciebs.

`mTavrobis 4­punqtiani gegmis~ meoTxe punqtis Sesaxeb cota qvemoT gveqneba saubari.

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aSkaraa, rom `mTavrobis 4­punqtiani gegmis~ pirveli sami punqti ewinaaRmdegeba qveynis inovaciuri ganviTarebis strategias da, amdenad, zemoxsenebul `saqarTvelo 2020­sac~. samwuxaroa, magram faqtia, rom `mTavrobis 4­punqtiani gegma~ ekonomikuri mecnierebis ugulebelyofiT ganpirobe­buli ekonomikuri primitivizmis TvalsaCino nimuSia.

am fonze gaocebas iwvevs, rom msoflio bankis region­ulma direqtorma moiwona `mTavrobis 4­punqtiani gegma~,32 Tumca es sulac ar unda aRviqvaT moulodnelad, Tuki gavix­senebT saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebis mier saqarT­veloSi Segnebulad Tu Seugneblad adrec daSvebul Sec­domebs33.

saxelmwifo biujetSi garRvevis dabalanseba. Tavidanve naTeli iyo, rom mogebis gadasaxadis zemoxsenebul estonur modelze gadasvla saxelmwifo biujetSi sagadasaxado Semo­savlebis mniSvnelovan klebas gamoiwvevda34. imis gaTvalis­winebiT, rom 2016 weli saparlamento arCevnebis weli iyo, mTavrobam am RonisZiebis gatareba 2017 wlisaTvis gadado.

radganac mogebis gadasaxadidan misaRebi Semosavlebi akldeba saxelmwifo biujets, amitom mTavrobam gadawyvita aqcizis gadasaxadebis da saTamaSo biznesSi mosakreblebis gazrda35. Tu am ukanasknelis mimarT pozitiuri damokidebu­leba aqvT rogorc ekonomistebs, ise mTlianad sazogadoe­bas, aqcizis gadasaxadebis zrda seriozul kiTxvebs aCens. kerZod, aqcizi Tambaqos nawarmze 2017 wlidan gaizarda: filtrian sigaretze _ TiTqmis 1,9­jer, xolo ufiltroze _ 2­jer, rac aCens kiTxvas: xom ar Seuwyobs es xels Tambaqos biznesis Tundac nawilis Crdilovan seqtorSi gadasvlas?

2017 wlidan mniSvnelovnad gaizarda aqcizi sawvavze: benzinze _ 2­jer, dizelze _ TiTqmis 2,7­jer, xolo saav­tomobilo gazze _ 2,5­jer. bunebrivia, sawvavze fasis zrda uaryofiTad aisaxeba rogorc mTlianad ekonomikaze, ise mo­saxleobis socialur mdgomareobaze.

msubuq avtomobilebze aqcizis gadasaxadi gaizarda umTavresad 6 wlisa da ufro xandazmuli manqanebis importi­sas. amgvari midgoma mimarTulia xeli Seuwyos qveyanaSi ar­sebuli moZvelebuli avtoparkis TandaTanobiT ganaxlebas.

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ibadeba logikuri kiTxva: mogebis gadasaxadis es­tonuri modelis gamoyenebis Sedegad sagadasaxado Semo­savlebis klebis kompensireba ratom xdeba mxolod aqcizis gadasaxadebis zrdis xarjze, ratom ar Seexo mTavroba sxva saxis gadasaxadebs?

saqme isaa, rom jer kidev nacionaluri moZraobis mTavrobis mmarTvelobisas konstituciaSi Sevida cvlile­ba, romlis Tanaxmadac, garda aqcizis gadasaxadisa, nebis­mieri sxva saxis gadasaxadis ganakveTis zrda an axali saxe­obis gadasaxadis SemoReba SesaZlebelia mxolod da mxolod referendumis gziT36. sagadasaxado politikis regulireba referendumiT aSkarad gaumarTlebelia, radganac referen­dumi yovelgvar azrsaa moklebuli: winaswar SeiZleba darw­munebiT iTqvas, rom absoluturi umravlesobiT yvela, vinc referendmuSi miiRebs monawileobas, moqmedi gadasaxadebis ganakveTis zrdis an axali saxeobis gadasaxadis SemoRebis wi­naaRmdegi iqneba. samwuxarod, `qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavroba da saparlamento umravlesoba, romlebmac 2017 wlisaTvis gadawyvites moqmedi konstituciis gadasinjva37, jerjerobiT ar apireben sagadasaxado politikis referendumis _ am popu­listuri gziT regulaciis gauqmebas...

imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom aqcizis gadasaxadebis zrda arapopularulia, mTavrobam 2017 wlis biujetiT aiRo sabiu­jeto xarjebis Semcirebis valdebuleba. kerZod, sabiujeto organizaciebis umravlesobaSi 10%­iT Semcirdeba Sromis anazRaurebis fondi da aseve 10%­iT daiklebs administraci­uli xarjebi38. mTavroba am nabijs aseve ukavSirebs zemo­xsenebuli `mTavrobis 4­punqtiani gegmis~ punqt 4­s, romlis mizanic aris mmarTvelobis efeqtianobis gazrda. samwuxa­rod, mTavrobas ar aqvs bolomde gaazrebuli, Tu ras niSnavs `mmarTvelobis efeqtianobis gazrda~, xolo am konteqstSi saxelmwifo administraciis xsenebuli 10­procentiani Semci­reba sakiTxisadmi gamartivebuli midgomaa, radganac marto mTavrobis zomis SemcirebiT misi efeqtianobis zrda sulac ar aris garantirebuli39.

samwuxaroa, rom mTavroba arc imas iTvaliswinebs, rom Tundac sawvavis gaZvirebis gziT inflaciis stimulirebis pirobebSi sabiujeto organizaciebSi Semcireba kidev ufro

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gaarTulebs qveyanaSi socialur mdgomareobas, rac politi­kurad aranairad ar unda Sediodes gonieri mTavrobis inte­res Si.

ipoTekuri sesxebis galarebis programa. 2014 wlis no­em bridan saqarTvelos erovnulma valutam _ larma _ gaufa­sureba daiwyo 40, rac 2015­2016 wlebSi kidev ufro swrafi tempiT gagrZelda41. am procesma mZime mdgomareobaSi Caayena mosaxleobis is nawili, romelsac ipoTekuri sesxi komerci­uli bankebidan ucxour valutaSi aqvs aRebuli. mosaxleobis am jgufis (sul 33 aTasi msesxebeli) dasaxmareblad mTavro­bam sesxebis galarebis programis dawyeba gadawyvita42.

es programa nebayoflobiTia da Seexeba mxolod maT, visac ipoTekuri sesxi ucxour valutaSi aqvs aRebuli 2015 wlis 1 ianvramde da am droisaTvis visi wliuri Semosavalic ar aRemateboda 100 aTas lars. Tanac programa vrceldeba ipoTekuri sesxis im nawilze, romelic aseve ar aRemateba 100 aTas lars. sesxebis galareba moxdeba galarebis dRes arse­bul oficialur gacvliT kurss gamoklebuli 0,2 lari, rac subsidirebuli iqneba saxelmwifo biujetidan da rac jam­Si 65 mln. lars Seadgens43. sayuradReboa, rom saqarTvelos erovnuli banki miawvdis komerciul bankebs galarebisaTvis saWiro ucxour valutas da laris likvidobaSic Seuwyobs xels. xazgasasmelia, rom galarebis es programa ar iTvalis­winebs komerciuli bankebis mier damatebiTi xarjebis gawe­vas.

imisaTvis, rom ipoTekuri sesxebis galarebis prog­ramam ar gamoiwvios laris Semdgomi devalvacia, erovnuli banki saerTaSoriso rezervebidan ucxour valutas komer­ciul bankebs mihyidis. paralelis gavlebis mizniT gasaxsene­belia, rom, rogorc wesi, saqarTvelos erovnuli banki didi sifrTxiliT ekideba savaluto rezervis xarjvas erovnu­li valutis stabilurobis SesanarCuneblad, Tumca es ar vrcel deba ipoTekuri sesxebis galarebis mocemul progra­maze. Sedegad, es programa, Tavis mxriv, ar gamoiwvevs laris gaufasurebas.

xazi imasac unda gaesvas, rom gaugebaria, Tu ratom uwodebs mTavroba ipoTekuri sesxebis galarebis progra­mas socialurs44, radgan es programa sulac ar exeba qveynis

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gaWirvebul mosaxleobas: ucxour valutaSi ipoTekur sesxs saqarTvelos dabalSemosavliani moqalaqe veranairad aiRebs, maSin roca am programis SesrulebisaTvis saxelmwifo biu­jetidan gaRebuli zemoxsenebuli subsidiis damfinansebeli (gadaxdili gadasaxadebiT) aris mTeli qveyana, maT Soris _ aSkarad mcirexelfasiani moqalaqeebic (saSemosavlo gada­saxads saSualod 900 aTasi adamiani ixdis).

mTavrobis SeuTanxmebeli gancxadebebis da gauazrebe-li RonisZiebebis zegavlena savaluto bazarze. saparlamento arCevnebis Semdeg, 2016 wlis noembris bolos, saqarTvelos parlamentma `qarTuli ocnebis~ nawilobriv ganaxlebuli mTavroba (Tumca isev giorgi kvirikaSvilis premier­minis­trobiT) daamtkica45. sayuradReboa, rom arc winasaarCevno partiul programaSi46 da arc parlamentSi damtkicebul sam­Tavrobo programaSi47 saerTod ar iyo saubari zemoxsenebul aqcizis gadasaxadebis zrdaze, sabiujeto xarjebis 10%­ian Semcirebasa Tu ipoTekuri sesxebis galarebis sqemaze48, rac mTavrobam ramdenime dReSi gaasajarova.

samwuxarod, mTavrobam es iniciativebi ise gaasajaro­va, rom biznesis warmomadgenlebTan (maT Soris, komerciul bankebTan) ar hqonda SeTanxmebuli. ufro metic, rogorc gairkva, arc Tavad mTavrobas hqonda bolomde gaazrebuli xsenebuli RonisZiebebi. amis TvalsaCino magaliTs warmoad­gens premier­ministris gancxadeba, rom onlainsesxebi saer­Tod unda akrZaluliyo49, romelic or dReSi uaryo saqarT­velos erovnuli bankis vice­prezidentmac50 da finansTa ministris moadgilemac51. sayuradReboa, rom onlainsesxebze dawesebuli SezRudvebi qmnian safrTxes, rom biznesis es sa­xe oba mevaxSeobis formiT ar gadavides ekonomikis Crdilo­van seqtorSi52. am tipis gauazrebeli da SeuTanxmebeli inici­ativebis gasajarovebam mniSvnelovnad Seuwyo xeli qveynis savaluto bazarze panikas53.

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis da ekonomikis ucxour valutaze (umTavresad dolarze) damokidebulebis Semci­rebis mizniT, premier­ministris iniciativiT, 2017 wlidan 100 aTas laramde, xolo 2018 wlidan 200 aTas laramde ses­xebi mxolod erovnul valutaSi unda gaices54. es regulacia dolarze jamur moTxovnas aranairad ar Seamcirebs, radgan

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saqarTvelos komerciul bankebs, rogorc zemoT iTqva, mniSv­nelovani odenobis sagareo vali aqvT dagrovebuli, amitom, Tu am regulaciamde dolaris Semsyidvelebi iyvnen dolarSi sesxis amRebi moqalaqeebi, am regulaciis amoqmedebis Sem­deg dolaris Semsyidvelebi gaxdebian larSi sesxebis gamcemi bankebi. Sedegad dolarze jamuri moTxovna ar Semcirdeba. sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT, larSi ganxorcielebuli trans­aqciebis wili transaqciebis saerTo raodenobaSi ki gaizrde­ba, magram amiT laris gacvliTi kursi ufro stabiluri mainc ver gaxdeba.

saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis daSlis morigi mcdeloba. saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis daSlis pirveli mcdeloba iyo 2008 wels, roca bankis Semadgenlobidan sabanko zedamxedve­lobis saagento gamoiyvanes, Tumca 2009 wels saagento kvlav erovnul banks SeuerTda, riTac mas sabanko zedamxedvelobis funqcia daubrunda55.

saqarTvelos erovnuli valutis zemoxsenebuli gau­fasurebis fonze 2015 wels `qarTuli ocnebis~ saparlamen­to umravlesobam erovnuli bankis prezidentis winaaRmdeg im mizeziT gailaSqra, rom Turme laris devalvacia mxolod misi brali iyo. erovnuli valutis devalvaciis gagrZelebis safrTxis Tavidan acilebis mizniT `qarTuli ocnebis~ sapar­lamento umravlesobam gadawyvita sabanko zedamxedvelobis funqciis bankidan gatana56.

miuxedavad imisa, rom saerTaSoriso safinanso insti­tutebi saqarTvelos xelisuflebas mouwodebdnen es nabiji ar gadaedga (raTa erovnuli banki ar dasustebuliyo)57, par­lamentma mainc daamtkica saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis Ses­axeb kanonSi cvlileba. amis Sedegad Camoyalibda formalu rad erovnuli bankis sistemaSi Semavali, Tumca damoukidebeli mmarTvelobis mqone safinanso zedamxedvelobis saagento58.

marTalia, saqarTvelos prezidentma veto daado xsenebul sakanonmdeblo cvlilebebs59, magram `qarTuli ocnebis~ saparlamento umravlesobam veto daZlia60 da es sakanonmdeblo cvlilebebi ZalaSi Seiyvana61.

mogvianebiT saparlamento opoziciis deputatebma ̀ na­cionaluri moZraobidan~ da `Tavisufali demokratebidan~

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erToblivi sarCeli Seitanes sakonstitucio sasamarTlo­Si, romelSic acxadebdnen, rom safinanso zedamxedvelobis saagentos Seqmna saqarTvelos konstitucias ewinaaRmdege­boda62. sabednierod, sakonstitucio sasamarTlom safinanso zedamxedvelobis saagentos funqcionireba SeaCera im drom­de, sanam saboloo gadawyvetilebas miiRebda63.

sakonstitucio sasamarTloSi am sakiTxis ganxilva im­den xans gagrZelda, rom erovnuli bankis prezidents ufle­bamosilebis vada amoewura, xolo axali prezidentis arCevis Semdeg `qarTuli ocnebis~ xelisuflebamac daaneba Tavi ban­kis instituciuri dakninebis iniciativas64.

`qarTuli ocnebis~ xelisuflebis mier gadadgmuli es nabiji ekonomikuri primitivizmis erT­erTi yvelaze STam­beWdavi magaliTia, roca imis nacvlad, rom saqarTvelos erovnul bankSi Sesabamisi kanoniT gaTvaliswinebuli sakadro cvlilebebi gaetarebinaT, gadawyvites instituciuri cvli­lebebis safuZvelze Tavad erovnuli bankis dasusteba.

ekonomikis saministros Senobis privatizacia. `qar­Tuli ocnebis~ mTavrobis ekonomikisadmi primitivistuli damokidebulebis erT­erTi TvalsaCino magaliTia 2015 wels ekonomikis saministros Senobis privatizacia, ris Sedegadac es Senoba eleqtronul auqcioze 9,45 milion aSS dolarad Cinurma kompania `hualingma~ iyida65. am SenobaSi kompania `hualings~ sastumros gaxsna aqvs gadawyvetili66.

sayuradReboa, rom ekonomikis saministro privatiza­ciis Semdegac imave SenobaSi darCa da kompania `hualings~ amisaTvis Sesabamis qiras uxdida, sanam SenobaSi xanZari ar gaCnda67. xanZris gamo Senobis gamqiravebeli Cinuri kompa­niisaTvis ekonomikis saministros mouwia jarimis gadaxda, Senobis dacla da axali Senobis daqiraveba68...

saministroebis Senobebis gayidva im mizniT, rom am SenobebSi sastumroebi gaxsniliyo, jer kidev `nacionaluri moZraobis~ mTavrobam wamoiwyo69. kerZod, 2007 wels soflis meurneobis saministros Senoba70, xolo 2012 wels iusticiis saministros Senobac71 am mizniT gamoiyenes.

umTavresi gansxvaveba saministroebis Senobebis sast­umroebad gadakeTebis sqemaSi is aris, rom ̀ nacionaluri moZ­

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raobis~ mTavroba jer gadawyvetda saministrosaTvis axali Senobis sakiTxs (soflis meurneobis saministro gadaiyvanes saxelmwifo sakuTrebaSi arsebul sxva SenobaSi, xolo ius­ticiis saministrosaTvis jer aSenda axali Senoba da Semdeg daaclevines Zveli) da Semdeg iwyebda Zveli Senobis sastum­rod gardaqmnis proeqts, `qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobam ki ise gayida ekonomikis saministros Senoba, rom am saministros ganTavsebis sakiTxi mofiqrebulic ki ar hqonda...

saqarTvelos strategiuli obieqtebis gayidva. parla­mentSi mTavrobis ndobis mopovebisaTvis premier­ministrma Tavis sityvaSi ganacxada, rom mTavroba ganixilavs saxelmwi­fos kuTvnili „saqarTvelos rkinigzisa“ da `navTobis da ga­zis korporaciis~ aqciebis 25%­is safondo birJaze pirvela­di ganTavsebis (Initial Public Offering, IPO) sakiTxs72. saqarTvelos strategiuli obieqtebis gasxvisebis Tema sulac ar aris axali, radgan `nacionaluri moZraobis~ mTavroba miiCnevda, rom strategiuli obieqtebi ar arsebobs da rom ruseTisa­Tvis maTi miyidva sulac ar aris saqarTvelosTvis safrTxis Semcveli73. Tanac es xdeboda im fonze, rom moskovs sajarod hqonda gacxadebuli, rom gegmavda `liberaluri imperiis~ Seqmnas74, anu ekonomikuri meqanizmebiT postsabWoTa (da ara marto) sivrceze zegavlenis damyarebas75.

imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom somxeTis teritoriaze gazsadenebsac da rkinigzasac ruseTis saxelmwifo kompaniebi floben (gazsadenebs _ ̀ gazpromi~, xolo rkinigzas _ kompania `ruseTis rkinigza~, romelmac somxeTis rkinigzas saxelic ki Seucvala da amJamad mas `samxreT kavkasiis rkinigza~ hqvia, rac naTeli aRiarebaa imisa, rom moskovis mizania kontroli daamyaros saqarTvelos rkinigzaze da sabolood _ azerbai­janis rkinigzazec), aSkaraa, rom „saqarTvelos rkinigzisa“ da `navTobis da gazis korporaciis~ aqciebis Tundac 25%­is gayidvis SemTxvevaSi umTavresi dainteresebuli mxare swored es rusuli kompaniebi iqnebian.

somxeT­azerbaijanis konfliqtis gamo SesaZloa qar­Tuli aqtivebis myidvelebis rolSi mogvevlinon azerbaijanu­li kompaniebi, radgan baqo dainteresebulia xelSi Caigdos erevanze zewolis axali ekonomikuri meqanizmebi. am SemTx­vevaSi Tbilisi aucileblad aRmoCndeba somxeT­azerbaijanis

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konfliqtSi CaTreuli, rac namdvilad ar Sedis saqarTvelos erovnul interesebSi.

samwuxaroa, rom `qarTuli ocneba~ agrZelebs saqarT­velos erovnuli interesebisaTvis safrTxis Semcvel imave politikas, rasac nacionaluri moZraobis mTavroba misdevda qveynis mmarTvelobaSi yofnis cxra wlis ganmavlobaSi.

rusuli gazis somxeTSi tranzitis safasuri. jer kidev eduard SevardnaZis prezidentobis dros Tbilissa da mos­kovs Soris gaformda xelSekruleba, romlis Tanaxmadac, `gazpromis~ mier somxeTisaTvis saqarTvelos gavliT magist­raluri gazsadeniT miwodebuli gazis tranzitis safasurad saqarTvelos darCeboda am gazis odenobis 10%.

2016 wlis ianvarSi `gazpromis~ moTxovniT daiwyo mo­laparakeba massa da saqarTvelos energetikis saministros Soris, romlis mizanic iyo gazis tranzitis safasuris natu­riT (anu gaziT) gadaxdis sanacvlod saqarTvelos mieRo fuli, gatarebuli gazis Rirebulebis 10%­is odenobiT76.

`gazpromis~ es winadadeba saqarTvelosaTvis ekonomi­kurad aSkarad wamgebiania. amis asaxsnelad unda gavixsenoT, rom jer kidev 2006 wels `gazpromma~ saqarTvelosac da som­xeT sac ganucxada, rom 2007 wlidan gazs miawvdida gazrdili tarifiT _ 1 000m3­s 230 aSS dolarad, nacvlad 110 aSS dola­risa; amasTan, `gazpromi~ Tanaxma iyo im pirobiT daetovebina Zveli tarifi, Tu mis sakuTrebaSi gadavidoda gazgamanawile­beli obieqtebis is raodenoba, romlis Rirebulebac toli iqneboda axal da Zvel tarifs Soris sxvaoba gamravlebuli moxmarebul gazze77. saqarTvelosgan gansxvavebiT, somxeTi daTanxmda am winadadebas, ris Sedegadac misi gazgamanawile­beli sistema `gazpromis~ sakuTrebaSi gadavida. amis Semde­gac, somxeTis ruseTTan daaxloebis fonze, `gazpromis~ mier somxeTisaTvis miwodebuli fasi ganicdida klebas78.

aSkaraa, rom fasTa sxvaobis gamo saqarTvelo somxeTi­saTvis gazis gatarebaSi fuliT aRebuli tranzitis safasu­riT ver iyidis imden gazs, rac mas rCeba tranzitis safa­suris gaziT gadaxdisas.

mas Semdeg, rac gaCnda eWvi, rom saqarTvelos mTavroba daTanxmdeboda `gazproms~ gazis tranzitis safasuris for­mis Secvlaze, qveyanaSi gamoiTqva mwvave kritikuli mosazre­

17

bebi79, gaimarTa saprotesto aqciebi80. Sedegad, saqarTvelos energetikis ministrma miaRwia `gazpromTan~ SeTanxmebas, rom 2016 wels (anu erTi wliT) SenarCunebuliyo tranzitis safa­suris gaziT gadaxdis moqmedi sistema81.

2017 wlisaTvis `gazpromsa~ da saqarTvelos energe­tikis saministros Soris molaparakeba gazis tranzitis safa­suris formis Taobaze kvlav ganaxlda82. samwuxarod, amjerad energetikis ministri daTanxmda `gazpromis~ winadadebas83.

savaraudod, is, rom 2016 wels saqarTvelos mTavro­bam moaxerxa tranzitis safasuris gazis formis SenarCune­ba, ganpirobebuli iyo arCevnebiT _ rogorc Cans, Tbilisma moskovs auxsna, rom saparlamento arCevnebis 2016 wlisaTvis `qarTuli ocnebis~ moqmedi mTavrobisTvis da saparlamento umravlesobisTvis wamgebiani iqneboda tranzitis safasuris formis cvlileba da amis erTi wliT gadavadeba iTxova84.

sayuradReboa, rom jer kidev 2016 wlis noemberSi somxeTma ganacxada, rom adgilobrivi momxmareblebisaTvis gazis fasi Semcirdeboda, radganac `gazpromi~ 2017 wlidan Seumcirebda saqarTvelos gazis tranzitis safasurs misi naturaluri formidan fulad formaSi gadayvaniT85. aSkaraa, rom es informacia (anu is, rom `gazpromi~ eloda Tbilisisa­gan tranzitis safasuris formis Secvlas da raodenobis Sem­cirebas, ris xarjzec erevani iZleoda dapirebas, rom adgi­lobriv momxmareblebs gazis tarifi SeumcirdebodaT) unda scodnoda saqarTvelos mTavrobas.

Tuki qarTuli mxare mainc iZulebuli iyo tranzitis safasuri Seemcirebina, jobda tranzitis safasuris natu­raluri forma ar Seecvala da gatarebuli gazis 10%­is nacvlad ufro naklebi procentuli odenobis gazi aeRo 86.

aucileblad gasaTvaliswinebelia, rom saqarTvelo moqceulia axladSeqmnili evraziuli ekonomikuri kavSiris ori wevrs _ ruseTsa da somxeTs _ Soris, amitom safrTxe imisa, rom saqarTvelos aiZulon am kavSirSi Sesvla, didia87. Tanac amjerad Tbilisma moskovs xelSi misca energetikuli berketic, radganac `gazproms~ SeuZlia daTmobaze wavides da tranzitis safasurad aRebuli TanxiT (anu ufro dabali tarifiT) gvayidinos somxeTis mimarTulebiT gagzavnili ga­zis 10% (rac aqamde tranzitis safasurSi gvrCeboda), Tuki

18

saqarTvelo gaxdeba evraziuli ekonomikuri kavSiris wevri. xazgasasmelia, rom am ukanasknelis arsebobis ekonomikur safuZvels swored energetikuli resursiT miRebuli Semo­savlebis gadanawilebis meqnizmi warmoadgens88.

ekonomikuri primitivizmis magaliTad unda miviCnioT is, rom saqarTvelos mTavrobis wevrebma saqarTvelosaTvis es saziano gadawyvetileba Seafases, rogorc `optimaluri~89, `maqsimaluri~90, xolo sakuTari sisustiT (ukeTes SemTxveva­Si) qveynisaTvis ekonomikuri zaralis miyeneba `sabazro prin­cips~ daabrales91.

daskvna

2012 da 2016 wlebis saparlamento arCevnebSi gamar­jvebuli `qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobisaTvis sawyis etapze damaxasiaTebeli iyo ekonomikuri optimizmis Sesatyvisi nabijebis gadadgma, romelTagan istoriuli mniSvnelo­bisaa evrokavSirTan asocirebis SeTanxmebis xelmowera, ris safuZvelzec saqarTvelos ekonomika evrokavSiris Rrma da yovlismomcvel Tavisufal savaWro sivrces miuerTda. am konteqstSi mniSvnelovani iyo saqarTvelos mTavrobis mier damtkicebuli `saqarTvelos socialur­ekonomikuri ganvi­Tarebis strategia _ saqarTvelo 2020~ (`saqarTvelo 2020~), romliTac mTavrobam miznad daisaxa qveyanaSi inovaciuri ekonomikis, codnaze dafuZnebuli ekonomikis Seqmna. wina xelisuflebis mankieri memkvidreobisagan Tavis dasaRwevad arsebiT nabijs warmoadgenda biznesis ganTavisufleba mTav­robis araformaluri wnexisagan.

samwuxarod, mTavrobis mier gadadgmul am optimistur nabijebs Semdgomi ganviTareba ar mohyolia. magaliTad, imis nacvlad, rom saministroebs xsenebuli `saqarTvelo 2020­is~ safuZvelze SeemuSavebinaT samoqmedo gegmebi (rasac mTavro­bis gadawyvetileba iTvaliswinebda), premier­ministrma saer­Tod daiviwya es kompleqsuri dokumenti da is primitiuli `mTavrobis 4­punqtiani gegmiT~ Caanacvla, romlis ganxor­cielebac qveyanas momxmarebluri ekonomikis maxinj models ar da ver Seucvlis.

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ekonomikuri primitivizmis naTeli magaliTebia eko­nomikis saministros Senobis privatizacia, saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis winaaRmdeg instituciuri xasiaTis brZola sakadro problemis arsebobis gamo, gauazrebeli da SeuTanx­mebeli gancxadebebiT savaluto bazarze ryevebis xelSewyoba da a.S.

qarTuli ekonomikuri primitivizmis safuZveli eko­nomikuri mecnierebis, Tanamedrove geopolitikisa da geoekonomikis sayovelTaod aRiarebuli codnis uaryofaSi, araprofesionalizmSi unda veZeboT. araprofesionalizmia agreTve mizezi im gadawyvetilebebis miRebis (strategiluli obieqtebis gasxviseba) da gatarebisa (gazis tranzitis safa­suris Semcireba), romlebic qveynis ekonomikur usafrTxoe­bas ukavSirdeba.

am viTarebaSi gansakuTrebuli roli ekisreba, erTi mxriv, saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebs, xolo meore mxriv _ samoqalaqo sazogadoebas. maTi gaaqtiureba aris praqtikulad erTaderTi meqanizmi, riTac SesaZlebeli iqneba met­naklebad qmediTi zewola mTavrobaSi ekonomikuri primi­tivizmis aRmosafxvrelad da arakompetenturi kadrebis Casa­nacvleblad.

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