Charan Singh

RSMC-New Delhi

Use of satellite in forecasting of Tropical Cyclone before and after 2011

RSMC New Delhi

INDIAN GEOSTATIONARY METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITES

Sub-Satellite points

INDIAN SATELLITES –FOR MET. PURPOSESatellites Met

PayloadChannels Spectral

Range (µm)Resolution

INSAT-1D --- VIS Full disk scan 2.75 km

IR 11 km

KALPANA-1(Sep ’02) VHRR VIS 0.55-0.75 2 km

WV 5.7-7.1 8 km

IR 10.5-12.5 8 km

INSAT-3A (Apr ’03) VHRR VIS 0.55-0.75 2 km

WV 5.7-7.1 8 km

IR 10.5-12.5 8 km

ISAT-3D (2013) CCD VIS 0.62-0.68 1 km

NIR 0.77-0.86 1 km

SWIR 1.55-1.69 1 km

SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCTS

Satellites derived products of special relevance� INSAT

�Kalpana-1

�METEOSAT

�METOPS

�MODIS

� TRMM

�VIS/IR images from polar

orbiting satellites have been

in use in IMD since 1960s for

TC analysis.

�Dvorak’s technique for

intensity classification is

used for north Indian Ocean

since 1974.

Satellite based Ocean surface wind

� The above product is in use since its inception in 1999

� Oceansat-II launched in 2009 provides data since Phyancyclone (November 2009). However, data are notreceived in real time.

Method of TC analysis before 2011� VIS & IR images of Polar Orbiting Satellite were used in IMD, since

mid 1960s for TC analysis by generating photographs.

� Very High Resolution Radiometers (VHHR) by INSAT series werefrequently observed TCs since early 1980s.

� Satellite scan signals received at earth station; through thesesignals hard copies of VIS & IR satellite images were developed.

� These developed images go to pattern matching with the D’vorakpattern model/technique.

� Making necessary adjustment according to its features andpersistency, as per D’vorak technique from step 1 to step 10 onVisible and IR images.

� Finally assignment of T No, pattern of the tropical storm and mainlyconvective cloud distribution, where made.

Method of TC analysis before 2011(Contd.)

� D’vorak technique has been used for analysing TCs developingover NIO since late 1970s. It has provided realistic estimates ofposition and intensity particularly in case of intense TCs.

� In addition to Cloud Motion Vector Wind (CMVW), Outgoing LongWave Radiation (OLR), Cloud Top Temperature (CTT),Scatterometer winds & water vapour images were also consideredwhile deciding the center & intensity of TC.

� During last decade (step mentioned in previous slides, starting toanalyzing on computer screen by super imposing satellite imageson a grid map and Dvorak technique steps mainly used on screenbased.

� It is to mentioned here that satellite based intensity & centre of theTC was one of the inputs to RSMC-New Delhi for preparing OfficialTC Forecast.

Dissipation of TCs over sea as increase wind shear, decrease SST, entering mid-level westerlies seen in satellite imageries.

�The rainfall occurred mostly overarea covered with convective cloudswith CCT -80 to -60 0C, prior/afterlandfall of TCs.

�In 93% TCs, 70 % convection layover area right of the TCs track.

�Slow moving TCs cause heavy rainrather than fast moving TCs.

�The BOB TCs which crossed coastas CS and VSCS caused:•71.4 % r/f within the ranges 5-10 cm•22.8% 10-20 cm and•4.3% within the ranges 20-30 cmAnd

� For Arabian Sea TCs, about 70 %rainfall within the ranges 15-25 cmin 24 hrs in general.

Rainfall and cloud top temperature (CCT)

Satellite Bulletins

� Satellite division of IMD issues three hourly bulletinsfor entire southeast Asia.

� Includes spatial distribution and intensity of convectiveclouds.

� Issued hourly, in case of deep depression and cyclonicstorm and more intensity cyclones with Centre of theTC, intensity (T No.) and features.

� Intense precipitation advisories are also issued as andwhen required, particularly during monsoon,thunderstorm or some time in case of TROPICALcyclone with 6 hours validity.

No. Parameters Input Channels No. Parameters Input Channels

1. Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR)

TIR -1, TIR -2, WV 10. Water Vapor Wind (WVW)

WV, TIR -1, TIR -2

2. Quantitative Precipitation Estimation ( QPE),IMSRA,HE

TIR -1, TIR -2, WV,Model FG.

11. Upper Tropospheric Humidity (UTH)

WV, TIR -1, TIR -2

3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

SWIR,TIR -1, TIR -2, MIR

12. Temperature, Humidity profile & Total ozone

Sounder all channels

4. Snow Cover VIS, SWIR, TIR -1, TIR -2

13. Value added parameters from sounder products

Sounder products

5. Snow Depth VIS, SWIR, TIR -1, TIR -2

14. FOG SWIR, MIR , TIR -1, TIR -2

6. Fire MIR, TIR -1 15. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index

CCD

7. Smoke VIS, TIR -1, TIR -2, MIR

16. Flash Flood Analyzer TIR -1, TIR -2, VIS

8. Aerosol VIS, TIR -1, TIR -2 17. HSCAS VIS

9. Cloud Motion Vector (CMV)

VIS, TIR -1, TIR -2 18. Tropical Cyclone-intensity /position

AODT technique,TIR-1,TIR-2

AFTER 2011 significant increase in Satellite products

On-line INSAT -3D Data Visualization Tool RAPID

http://www.rapid.imd.gov.in/

Monthly Products i. e. OLR and (UTH) ETC.

Upper Tropospheric Humidity

OLR Monitoring

INSAT-3D Sounder Products, LI, TPW

Other satellite observations (Microwave) � Passive Microwave Imagers

(PMW) for structure

(eye wall and rain band)

� Microwave Sounders (MSU)

(Intensity)

AMSU-A oxygen band channels 5-8(warm core temperature)

� Rain rate� TMI rain data

� TRMM (Tropical RainfallMeasuring Mission) rain data

Microwave imageries being used

� Tropical cyclone module has been installed and beutilised along with Navy NRL website to analysemicrowave imageries.

� Available satellite dérivéd products

High resolution AMVs; rapid scan winds; OLR; Oceansatand WINDSAT winds; local High Résolution PictureTransmission (HRPT) Temperature and moistureprofiles; MODIS moisture data; TMI; SSMI and AMSUdata sets etc.) for its utilization by the global andregional data assimilation-forecast systems of IMD.

Example of TC wind monitoring products

Remotely sensed products

TC wind monitoring products

Scatterometry products

Modernized Forecasting System : Synergie

Global plotting Conditional plotting Profile

Gauges

Plane trajectories

A typical daily products in Forecasting System duri ng 2011

Geostationary Satellite Imagery for Cyclone Monitoring

�VisibleTracking (locating the centre)

For intensity analysis by Dvorak Technique

� Infra-RedTracking (locating the centre)

For structure analysis

For intensity analysis

�Water VapourFor synoptic assessment of the

storm environment

Tools in use for tropical activity DAILY WATCH

� Web based data:� Scatterometry data.

� Micro-wave imagery for developing low pressure areas.

� CIMSS maps (vertical wind shear, upper level divergence)

� Madden Julian Oscillation/ Outgoing longwave radiation dry orenhanced convection phases.

Tropical Cyclone Module & Microwave )

� Microwave imageries being used� Tropical cyclone module has been installed

and utilised along with Navy NRL website toanalyse microwave imageries.

Image of TRMM 2344Z of TC Giri, Eye is clearly seen .

Imagery of Giri Kalpana I of 2200UTC, Eye TC is not seen .

Imagery of F-16, 6 th Nov 2010 (01:29 UTC)

SATMET page on ID website before 2011

Thanks.