Upland Free Water: Past, Present and Future in Grand Staircase-Escalante NM?Upland Free Water: Past, Present and Future in Grand Staircase-Escalante NM?

Jan HartDavid Mattson

Brandon HoltonMark Miller

USGS Southwest Biological Science Center Colorado Plateau Research Station

Total precipitation The

Clim

ate

Sour

ce

THE SEMI-ARID CORE

Mean Annual ppt150-600 mm

(Elevation 1200-2600 m)

Grand-Staircase Escalante NM

2130 years of reconstructed precipitation in NW New Mexico

1700

Re-occuring and Extended Severe Drought

1750

200 1 200 400 600 800 1000

Year

1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

1780 1850 1900 1950 2000

1950s

Figure by MIT OCW.

168 natural springs (blue)

Grand-Staircase Escalante NM

168 natural springs (blue)12 wildlife-related developments (yellow)667 livestock-related developments (green)

Grand-Staircase Escalante NM

Flagstaff

Natural upland waters

Flagstaff

Artificial upland waters

Spatial Availability

FlagstaffFlagstaff

Spatial Availability

FlagstaffFlagstaff

Spatial Availability

Temporal Availability

Wup

atki

NM

Climate

Geomorphology

Geology

Free water

Vegetation

Humanland use Wildlife

Soils

Soil and VegetationSoil and VegetationB

road

scal

epa

ttern

s

1.5 km

Soil and VegetationSoil and VegetationFi

nesc

ale

patte

rns

100 m

Interception of 2% to 33% of run-offPotential effects on downstream vegetation

HYDROLOGYHYDROLOGY

Grand-Staircase Escalante NM

Grand-Staircase Escalante NM

RoadsRoads and maintenanceand maintenance

ARTIFICIAL

WildlifeWildlife

ARTIFICIAL

WildlifeWildlife

Nea

r Wup

atki

Nat

iona

l Mon

umen

t

Wildlife, livestock & vegetationWildlife, livestock & vegetation

Nea

r Wup

atki

Nat

iona

l Mon

umen

t

Wildlife, livestock & vegetationWildlife, livestock & vegetation

Probable EffectsSpatially & temporally more uniform free water.

Complex interactions among wildlife & livestock.

Broadscale effects on species richness,invasives, and palatable species.

Finer-scale effects on soil structure, soil nutrients, and vegetation cover.

Changes in hydrologic regimes & downstream vegetation.

Census of beef cattle

U.S

. Cen

sus

of A

gric

ultu

re

THE FORECAST

THE FORECAST

1900

Observations

-0.3

0.0

Ano

mal

ies

from

189

0-19

19 (o

C)

0.3

0.6

0.9

1920 1940Year

1960 1980 2000

(Natural) volcano + solar(Anthropogenic + Natural) volcano + solar + greenhouse gas + sulfate + ozone

Figure by MIT OCW.

THE FORECAST

Warming…

and probabledrying.

Leung et al. (2004)

1.4

5.35.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.4

Temperature Change December-FebruaryTemperature Change June-August

Precipitation Change (mm/day) June August Precipitation Change (mm/day) December-February

Figure by MIT OCW.

RegionalClimaticContext

Particularlysensitive toglobal change(Ehleringer et al. 1999)

Grand-Staircase Escalante NM

GOSP

TICA

FOBU

COLM

CANYGLCA

RABRGLCA

CARE

BLCA

CURE

107

81

87

277 61172

YUHO

AZRU

CHCUBAND

PETR

ELMA

ELMO

PEFO

0 50 100 200Km

SUCR

WUPA

WACA

GRCA

SAPU

N

CACHNAVA

HUTR

MEVE91187

106CEBRBRG

77150 104

139150

73146

194

HOVE

94

103202

200

168

119

156

85153

109101274

125

183

161

180122

82

113188

143

114156

157335190

PISP

30187

96185

147488

Northern ColoradoPlateau Network

DINO

Green River

ARCH

96187

ColoradoRiver

79136

99150

559194

52111

149304

116214

197344

195231

145122

113107

NABR

201118

Southern ColoradoPlateau Network

Interstate Highway

Monsoon Northern Boundary

Mean June to September Precipitation (mm)

Mean October to May Annual Precipitation

Symbol size scaled to indicate Mean Annual Precipitation

Network Boundary

State Boundary

River

103

122

20084

Winter ppt

Summer ppt

Winter ppt

Summer ppt

Monsoonboundary

Figure by MIT OCW.

Many questions…

● How will changing human land uses affect free water availability?

● How will climate change affect free water availability?

● How will these changes affect plant and wildlife communities?

● How will all of this vary with geology and geomorphology?

Grand-Staircase Escalante NM

Many questions…

Grand-Staircase Escalante NM

● How have soils and productivity been affected?

● How has hydrology been affected?

● How have wildlife been affected?

● How to optimize relative to costs, benefits?

More fundamentally● Explain and predict availability of free water

● Explain and predict effects on biotic communities

● Explain and predict effects on the physical (soil,water) system

HolisticWhole water system

Forwarding lookingRather than reactionary & retrospective

Integrated & multi-disciplinary

CORE RESEARCH CHALLENGES

HydrologistsGeologists/geomorphologistsSpecialists in remote sensingBiologists

Grand-Staircase Escalante NM

● How to integrate stakeholdervalues & cultural traditions?

A Helpful Role for Science?

Contribute to helping people find COMMON GROUND…

by helping stakeholders build a SHARED VISION of the world (i.e., a “single text” map)…

that everyone BELIEVES.

A Helpful Role for Science?Participate in/create venues that are…

Respectful & Fair

Participatory

Share responsibility & control

Focus on finding common ground

Grand-Staircase Escalante National Monument

Grand Staircase-Escalante NM

Established by Presidential Proclamation, September 18, 1996 –

“... a place where one can see how nature shapes human endeavors in the American

West, where distance and aridity have been pitted against our dreams and courage.”