uk trading & value indicator 20120419

8/2/2019 uk trading & value indicator 20120419

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19 April 2012

UK Trading &

ValueIndicator


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Intellisys www.intellisys.uk.com 19 April 2012

Page 2 of 25 Intellisys 19 April 2012

Contents

Market Pictures - Indices ......................................................................... 5FTSE 100 ................................................................................................ 5FTSE 250 ................................................................................................ 6FTSE All Share Index ................................................................................ 7FTSE AIM All Share .................................................................................. 8

Market Pictures Interest Rates ............................................................ 10UK Bank Lending Rates ........................................................................... 10Eurozone Lending Rates .......................................................................... 11US Federal Funds Rate ........................................................................... 12

Market Pictures Exchange Rates ......................................................... 13Market Pictures - Oil............................................................................... 15Aerospace & Defence ............................................. Over Valued 16Automobiles & Parts .............................................. Over Valued 16Banks ............................................................. Under Valued 16Beverages ........................................................ Over Valued 16Chemicals ........................................................ Over Valued 16Construction & Building Materials .............................. Over Valued 17Electronics & Electrical Equipment ............................. Over Valued 17Engineering & Machinery ........................................ Over Valued 17Food & Drug Stores ............................................... Under Valued 18Food Producers & Processors ................................... Over Valued 18General Retail ..................................................... Over Valued 18Health .............................................................. Under Valued 18Household Goods & Textiles .................................... Under Valued 18Information Technology & Hardware .......................... Over Valued 19Insurance ........................................................ Over Valued 19Leisure & Hotels .................................................. Under Valued 19Life Assurance .................................................. Over Valued 19Media & Entertainment .......................................... Over Valued 20Mining .............................................................. Under Valued 20Oil & Gas ........................................................... Under Valued 20Personal Care & Household Products .......................... Over Valued 20Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology .............................. Under Valued 21Software & Computer Services ................................. Under Valued 21Speciality & Other Finance

......................................

Over Valued21

Support Services .................................................. Under Valued 22Telecommunication Services .................................... Under Valued 22Transport ........................................................ Under Valued 23Utilities ............................................................. Under Valued 23DISCLAIMER ............................................................................................. 24


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IntroductionThe overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guidethat will identify those shares that merit their investment attention in anincreasingly time critical and information noisy trading environment.

The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box,

typically, before the official open of the London Stock Markets.

Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of aninvestment are the two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.

TimingIntellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key

factors that influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters,these have been established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cutthrough the daily investment noise.

Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimentalfactors as well as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters(analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment meetings.

From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage,the trading indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate inidentifying good trading points as well as some 74% accurate for overall trend

correlation.

The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40stocks analysed.

Individual Stock Recommendation & Trend Accuracy Scores

Source: Intellisys

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

Best Buy/Sell Trend


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Value

A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Prices.On a daily basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from notonly the Profit & Loss Account but also the Balance Sheet and Cash flow

Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation models.

Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his

investment research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment

valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.

The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the

Target as realistically valid as possible.

Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Price delivery is not only a

function of market levels but a management teams ability to establish andmaintain a value generating operating environment set against a constantlychanging global background.

The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to startwith a modest range of some 6 10 valuation measures and remove those that

are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis approach is the opposite we useas many valuation methodologies as possible.

Further, Intellisys recognises that some target prices may appear strange orextreme. However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them

as starting points to challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion ofa stock.

In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist

investors from falling in love with a stock or becoming mesmerised bymanagement cults.

ConclusionNo investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading andinvestment systems active position monitoring is critical for maximisedinvestment performance.

Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunctionwith, and not separate from subscribers existing investment systems as well asdiscussing investment options with their financial advisers.

Philip Morrish ([email protected])

RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target Prices

Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in thispublication is provided solely to enable you to make your own investmentdecisions.If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you

should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not besuitable for everyone.The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as riseand you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated

in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the valueof stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance.


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Market Pictures - Indices

FTSE 100

Index PE

3,512.1

3,987.5

4,944.4

5,745.3

6,082.9

6,091.3

6,732.4

2000 4000 6000 8000

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100

7.0

7.9

7.9

9.7

14.1

18.2

18.2

5 10 15 20

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100 PE

% change % change

1M -3.7; 3M 0.8; 12M -2.1 1M -4.9; 3M -5.5; 12M -28.4

Yield RSI

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.6

3.9

5.2

6.2

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100 DY

25.5

49.7

74.8

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE 100 RSI

% change

1M 4.6; 3M 3.1; 12M 17.9


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FTSE 250

Index PE

5,491.5

6,987.3

9,425.9

11,432.0

12,167.8

12,167.8

12,220.2

500 5500 10500 15500

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250

7.1

7.1

7.1

18.6

19.5

27.8

27.8

5 10 15 20 25 30

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250 PE

% change % change

1M -3.1; 3M 7.2; 12M -0.5 1M 4.9; 3M 14.8; 12M 9.0

Yield RSI

1.9

2.2

2.3

2.8

3.3

3.8

5.7

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250 DY

25.6

50.8

83.4

0 20 40 60 80 100

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE 250 RSI

% change

1M 4.8; 3M -4.7; 12M 16.5


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FTSE All Share Index

Index PE

1,781.6

2,038.4

2,557.8

2,988.4

3,160.9

3,160.9

3,479.0

500 1500 2500 3500 4500

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE

7.4

8.5

8.5

10.5

14.6

19.5

19.5

5 10 15 20 25

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE PE

% change % change

1M -3.5; 3M 1.8; 12M -1.9 1M -4.5; 3M -3.5; 12M -25.3

Yield RSI

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.5

3.8

5.0

6.1

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE DY

25.4

49.8

74.8

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE RSI

% change

1M 4.5; 3M 1.8; 12M 17.1


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FTSE AIM All Share

Index PE

373.8

448.9

657.8

784.6

921.6

968.3

1,236.6

200 700 1200 1700

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE

-203,906.0

-203,906.0

-203,906.0

-367.8

304.6

1,240.8

1,439.5

-250000 -200000 -150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE PE

% change % change

1M -2.8; 3M 5.8; 12M -12.8 1M -237.9; 3M -470.1; 12M -84.1

Yield RSI

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.7

2.1

0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE DY

23.6

48.9

91.9

0 50 100

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE RSI

% change

1M 7.6; 3M 18.3; 12M 16.4


9/25




S&P 500

Index PE

676.5

832.4

1,099.2

1,385.1

1,419.0

1,419.0

1,565.2

400 900 1400 1900

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE

13.4

13.4

13.4

15.6

17.5

146.3

146.3

10 60 110 160

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE PE

% change % change

1M -1.4; 3M 5.9; 12M 6.1 1M -2.7; 3M 5.1; 12M -8.0

Yield RSI

1.8

1.8

1.9

2.2

2.4

2.6

3.4

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE DY

28.5

49.2

81.6

0 20 40 60 80 100

Lo

Last Close

Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE RSI

% change

1M 7.7; 3M 2.8; 12M 15.0


10/25



Market Pictures Interest Rates

UK Bank Lending Rates

UK

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

5.75

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

UK CLEARING BANKS BASE RATE

% change

1M 0.0; 3M 0.0; 12M 0.0

UK Lending PE

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

17.4

10 60 110 160 210

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

UK CLEARING BANKS BASE RATE PE


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Eurozone Lending Rates

Eurozone

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

2.25

2.25

5.25

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

EUROZONE MARGINAL LENDING RATE

% change

1M 0.0; 3M 0.0; 12M -12.5

Eurozone Lending PE

57.1

57.1

57.1

57.1

44.4

44.4

19.0

10 20 30 40 50 60

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

EUROZONE MARGINAL LENDING RATE - PE


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US Federal Funds Rate

US

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.16

0.17

0.25

5.41

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

% change

1M 6.7; 3M 77.8; 12M 60.0

US Lending PE

2,500.0

2,500.0

2,500.0

625.0

588.2

400.0

18.5

10 510 1010 1510 2010 2510 3010

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE - PE


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Market Pictures Exchange Rates

US$/

1.37

1.43

1.53

1.60

1.67

1.70

2.11

1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US$/

% change

1M 1.2; 3M 4.0; 12M -1.0

/

1.02

1.07

1.11

1.22

1.22

1.24

1.50

1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

EURO/

% change

1M 1.6; 3M 1.6; 12M 7.1


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Market Pictures Exchange Rates

US$/

1.19

1.19

1.27

1.31

1.48

1.51

1.60

0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US$/EURO

% change

1M -0.4; 3M 2.1; 12M -7.8

/

117.1

117.1

117.1

130.3

136.6

162.5

250.1

100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

YEN/

% change

1M -1.3; 3M 10.2; 12M -2.1


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Market Pictures - Oil

Brent Monthly FOB US$/bbl

34.6

48.3

104.0

117.2

126.6

126.6

145.6

0 50 100 150 200

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

Oil (Brent) Monthly FOB U$/bbl

% change

1M -6.14; 3M 5.84; 12M -3.62


Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in thispublication is provided solely to enable you to make your own investmentdecisions.

If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you

should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not besuitable for everyone.

The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as riseand you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominatedin a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the valueof stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance.


16/25



Aerospace & Defence Over Valued

Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BAE SYSTEMS 289.20 248.10 340.80 Neutral Strong Buy 672 0.65

CHEMRING GROUP 379.00 368.80 677.00 Neutral Strong Buy 626 0.52

COBHAM 238.40 165.90 238.90 Neutral Neutral 262 0.91

MEGGITT 404.50 305.00 412.00 Neutral Sell 372 1.34

ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS 813.00 552.19 842.50 Neutral Sell 748 1.10

SMITHS GROUP 1035.00 869.50 1340.00 Neutral Neutral 1023 0.73

ULTRA ELECTRONICS HDG. 1669.00 1305.00 1780.00 Neutral Sell 1159 0.60

UMECO 568.00 243.50 568.00 Sell Sell 427 0.80

Automobiles & Parts Over Valued


GKN 209.20 157.00 245.00 Neutral Sell 165 1.98

INCHCAPE 369.40 268.60 425.40 Neutral Sell 310 1.42

LOOKERS 63.50 47.00 72.75 Neutral Neutral 64 1.34

PENDRAGON 13.50 6.80 19.71 Neutral Strong Buy 22 1.14

Banks Under Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BARCLAYS 214.25 138.85 301.85 Neutral Strong Buy 400 1.86

HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50) 552.00 463.50 662.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1056 1.14

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP 29.97 21.84 60.39 Sell Strong Buy 84 1.77

ROYAL BANK OF SCTL.GP. 24.43 17.34 42.91 Sell Sell 9 1.29

STANDARD CHARTERED 1520.00 1169.50 1672.00 Neutral Sell 749 1.71

Beverages Over Valued


BARR (AG) 1165.00 1031.00 1395.00 Neutral Neutral 1241 0.43

DIAGEO 1576.50 1112.00 1576.50 Sell Sell 1387 0.55

SABMILLER 2616.00 1979.00 2660.00 Sell Buy 3002 0.99

Chemicals Over Valued


CRODA INTERNATIONAL 2216.00 1597.00 2238.00 Neutral Sell 1801 1.08

ELEMENTIS 201.00 107.50 206.00 Neutral Sell 182 1.07

JOHNSON MATTHEY 2357.00 1523.00 2408.00 Neutral Neutral 2396 1.47

VICTREX 1492.00 1025.00 1590.00 Neutral Neutral 1505 1.22

YULE CATTO 239.40 148.00 253.00 Neutral Strong Buy 361 1.29

ZOTEFOAMS 171.00 109.00 186.50 Neutral Buy 241 1.01


17/25



Construction & Building Materials Over Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BALFOUR BEATTY 271.80 214.60 333.70 Neutral Buy 321 0.84

BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS 133.10 67.50 151.50 Neutral Sell 70 1.45

BELLWAY 798.00 540.50 859.50 Neutral Sell 697 1.01

BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE) 1281.00 1025.00 1414.00 Neutral Neutral 1302 0.68

BOVIS HOMES GROUP 479.80 326.50 518.50 Neutral Sell 214 1.07

CARILLION 279.70 275.00 403.20 Neutral Buy 383 1.09

CLARKE (T) 53.00 35.50 101.00 Neutral Strong Buy 205 0.80COSTAIN GROUP 213.00 180.00 247.50 Neutral Strong Buy 788 0.56

GALLIFORD TRY 630.00 383.75 630.00 Neutral Sell 585 1.05

KELLER 446.50 239.25 671.50 Neutral Neutral 452 1.32

KIER GROUP 1179.00 1095.00 1489.00 Neutral Strong Buy 3233 1.04

LOW & BONAR 59.63 38.00 76.75 Neutral Strong Buy 147 1.11

MARSHALLS 96.00 83.25 124.50 Neutral Sell 72 1.35

MORGAN SINDALL GROUP 679.00 510.00 725.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1507 0.89

PERSIMMON 634.50 374.00 706.50 Neutral Neutral 634 1.10

REDROW 126.20 103.50 135.30 Neutral Sell 90 0.97

SIG 109.70 76.95 153.50 Neutral Sell 11 1.59

TAYLOR WIMPEY 49.95 28.71 52.75 Neutral Sell 14 1.50

TRAVIS PERKINS 1056.00 715.00 1125.00 Neutral Neutral 1112 1.89

WOLSELEY 2412.00 1404.00 2558.00 Neutral Sell 1834 1.44

Electronics & Electrical Equipment Over Valued


DIALIGHT 1045.00 643.50 1045.00 Sell Sell 458 0.76

DOMINO PRINTING SCIENCES 607.00 434.30 701.50 Neutral Buy 711 1.18

E2V TECHNOLOGIES 125.50 86.75 146.50 Neutral Buy 158 1.35

INVENSYS 191.50 180.90 340.60 Neutral Strong Buy 391 1.47

LAIRD 221.50 128.50 222.00 Neutral Sell 197 2.17

OXFORD INSTRUMENTS 1280.00 714.00 1280.00 Sell Sell 829 0.99

RENISHAW 1348.00 800.00 1886.00 Neutral Buy 1975 1.29

SPECTRIS 1830.00 1039.00 1837.00 Neutral Sell 1223 1.43

BIOME TECHNOLOGIES 0.21 0.14 0.28 Neutral Strong Buy 1 0.64

TT ELECTRONICS 179.50 120.50 208.00 Neutral Buy 245 1.60

XAAR 226.00 212.00 295.00 Neutral Sell 126 1.13

Engineering & Machinery Over Valued


AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP 83.00 62.50 124.00 Neutral Strong Buy 266 1.32

BODYCOTE 404.40 225.60 426.50 Neutral Sell 320 1.59

CASTINGS 300.00 252.50 358.00 Neutral Strong Buy 478 0.98

COOKSON GROUP 745.00 395.80 745.00 Neutral Sell 693 2.29

FENNER 441.60 280.00 483.70 Neutral Neutral 424 1.41

HALMA 404.60 306.30 429.60 Sell Sell 343 0.76

HILL & SMITH 316.25 235.00 393.50 Neutral Strong Buy 539 1.41

IMI 959.50 636.50 1119.00 Neutral Buy 1287 1.40

METALRAX GROUP 8.12 7.25 12.00 Neutral Sell 5 0.86

MORGAN C RUCIBLE 325.20 224.00 360.00 Neutral Neutral 312 1.77

ROTORK 2163.00 1501.00 2163.00 Sell Sell 1687 0.99

SENIOR 203.70 135.60 204.80 Neutral Neutral 221 1.77

SEVERFIELD-ROWEN 176.25 150.00 250.00 Neutral Sell 151 1.07

SPIRAX-SARCO 2236.00 1649.00 2253.00 Sell Sell 2111 0.85

VITEC GROUP 666.25 488.00 690.00 Neutral Neutral 674 1.52

WEIR GROUP 1744.00 1375.00 2236.00 Neutral Sell 1479 1.39


18/25



Food & Drug Stores Under Valued


GREGGS 519.00 445.00 558.00 Neutral Sell 305 0.52

MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS. 298.30 277.00 328.00 Neutral Buy 367 0.45

SAINSBURY (J) 309.80 263.50 362.80 Neutral Strong Buy 563 0.64

TESCO 321.05 310.45 420.05 Buy Buy 422 0.73

THORNTONS 28.38 9.50 81.50 Neutral Sell 27 0.77

Food Producers & Processors Over Valued


ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS 1219.00 977.00 1233.00 Neutral Sell 1008 0.60

CRANSWICK 808.00 588.50 841.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1512 0.60

DAIRY CREST 309.70 309.70 409.70 Neutral Strong Buy 723 0.93

DEVRO 317.00 232.00 332.20 Neutral Strong Buy 666 0.33

PREMIER FOODS 17.00 3.29 35.12 Neutral Sell -30 1.40

TATE & LYLE 689.50 544.50 720.50 Neutral Buy 818 0.63

UNILEVER (UK) 2064.00 1892.00 2189.00 Neutral Sell 1003 0.58

General Retail Over Valued


ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS 23.38 16.00 23.75 Neutral Buy 29 0.71

BROWN (N) GROUP 228.10 222.40 304.50 Neutral Neutral 251 0.49

BURBERRY GROUP 1501.00 1092.00 1600.00 Neutral Sell 528 1.36

CARPETRIGHT 611.00 375.00 741.00 Neutral Sell 203 1.03

CLINTON CARDS 8.67 7.50 18.00 Sell Buy 10 0.65

DIXONS RETAIL 17.10 9.36 19.91 Neutral Strong Buy 28 1.45

FINDEL 3.38 2.20 8.70 Neutral Sell 3 0.97

FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP 42.50 36.00 106.00 Neutral Strong Buy 99 0.93

HALFORDS GROUP 289.00 269.50 405.90 Neutral Buy 408 0.64

JJB SPORTS 13.50 5.20 31.00 Sell Strong Buy 1186 0.88

JD SPORTS FASHION 809.50 570.00 1030.00 Neutral Buy 1185 0.48

KESA ELECTRICALS 57.15 57.15 151.40 Neutral Strong Buy 287 1.28KINGFISHER 304.30 217.00 313.80 Neutral Sell 284 0.97

MARKS & SPENCER GROUP 357.80 301.80 402.20 Neutral Neutral 386 0.74

MOSS BROTHERS GROUP 51.00 26.00 51.00 Neutral Sell 22 1.07

MOTHERCARE 166.00 127.30 448.50 Neutral Strong Buy 360 0.56

NEXT 2971.00 2153.00 3060.00 Neutral Sell 2113 0.78

TED BAKER 897.00 633.00 897.00 Sell Sell 466 0.56

TOPPS TILES 37.75 21.50 77.00 Neutral Sell 22 1.33

Health Under Valued


CONSORT MEDICAL 652.50 498.00 658.00 Neutral Sell 424 0.39CORIN GROUP 39.25 36.50 59.00 Neutral Buy 49 0.76

SMITH & NEPHEW 615.00 521.00 694.00 Neutral Buy 774 0.36

Household Goods & Textiles Under Valued


HARVARD INTL. 43.88 21.75 44.00 Neutral Sell 32 0.48

GAMES WORKSHOP 570.00 405.00 577.50 Neutral Sell 466 0.38

HEADLAM GROUP 294.00 233.25 310.00 Neutral Buy 361 0.93

HORNBY 97.00 93.00 145.00 Neutral Strong Buy 149 0.65


19/25



Information Technology & Hardware Over Valued


ARM HOLDINGS 608.00 464.00 645.00 Neutral Sell 418 0.76

CSR 210.00 154.10 391.40 Neutral Strong Buy 612 1.20

FILTRONIC 32.00 14.50 35.00 Sell Strong Buy 58 0.66

IMAGINATION TEC HNOLOGIES 698.50 296.90 717.00 Neutral Sell 269 0.96

PSION 56.25 41.00 101.50 Neutral Strong Buy 352 1.16

SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS 167.00 105.80 172.80 Neutral Strong Buy 392 1.01

WOLFSON MIC ROELECTRONIC S 176.75 96.00 244.50 Neutral Sell 80 1.06

Insurance Over Valued


ADMIRAL GROUP 1209.00 787.00 1754.00 Neutral Sell -8473 0.51

AMLIN 328.80 270.60 427.00 Neutral Strong Buy 7196 0.49

BEAZLEY 142.20 109.60 151.80 Neutral Strong Buy 2342 0.51

CATLIN GROUP 419.70 336.00 449.00 Neutral Sell 85 0.31

HISCOX 400.20 340.50 424.70 Neutral Strong Buy 6494 0.50

JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON 676.50 576.00 764.50 Neutral Strong Buy 4488 0.32

RSA INSURANCE GROUP 102.70 99.60 139.80 Neutral Strong Buy 2769 0.43

NOVAE GROUP 370.25 285.00 385.25 Neutral Strong Buy 6226 0.50

Leisure & Hotels Under Valued


CARNIVAL 1973.00 1742.00 2642.00 Neutral Strong Buy 3136 1.08

ENTERPRISE INNS 62.00 26.50 96.15 Neutral Sell 29 1.73

TUI TRAVEL 196.30 136.70 250.00 Neutral Strong Buy 677 0.95

FULLER SMITH 'A' 722.75 609.00 752.00 Neutral Sell 569 0.44

GREENE KING 513.50 410.00 523.50 Neutral Neutral 559 0.86

LADBROKES 162.80 114.00 165.00 Neutral Neutral 162 1.00

ICTL.HTLS.GP. 1460.00 955.00 1497.00 Neutral Buy 1662 1.31

MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS. 480.00 371.20 535.50 Neutral Sell 424 1.41

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS 266.00 215.60 336.80 Neutral Buy 337 1.02

BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM. 158.80 100.60 174.00 Neutral Sell 117 1.26PUNCH TAVERNS 10.50 9.14 15.57 Neutral Sell -206 1.30

RANK GROUP 121.80 109.50 153.70 Neutral Buy 177 0.99

RESTAURANT GROUP 286.90 254.90 335.00 Neutral Neutral 307 0.85

WETHERSPOON (JD) 420.30 380.50 468.30 Neutral Buy 580 0.72

WHITBREAD 1839.00 1409.00 1872.00 Neutral Sell 1568 1.02

WILLIAM HILL 258.60 183.30 265.00 Neutral Neutral 267 0.94

MARSTON'S 100.00 84.60 112.00 Neutral Strong Buy 154 1.26

Life Assurance Over Valued


AVIVA 307.70 275.30 450.30 Neutral Strong Buy 435 1.26CHESNARA 181.75 161.75 255.00 Neutral Neutral 177 0.58

LEGAL & GENERAL 118.20 89.80 135.00 Neutral Buy 83 1.67

OLD MUTUAL 150.10 98.05 164.60 Neutral Sell 160 1.66

PRUDENTIAL 741.50 509.00 797.50 Neutral Sell 316 1.72

ST.JAMES'S PLACE 343.20 294.00 376.00 Neutral Strong Buy 121 0.81


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Media & Entertainment Over Valued


AEGIS GROUP 179.10 116.17 187.40 Neutral Sell 98 1.31

BLOOMSBURY PBL. 109.63 91.25 138.00 Neutral Buy 139 0.51

BRITISH SKY BCAST.GROUP 668.50 618.50 850.00 Neutral Neutral 660 0.61

CENTAUR MEDIA 34.50 32.50 56.25 Neutral Sell -79 1.04

DAILY MAIL 'A' 416.00 343.40 505.50 Neutral Buy 499 1.09

EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR 772.50 522.50 809.50 Neutral Sell 611 1.05

INFORMA 432.20 313.90 451.00 Neutral Sell 350 1.52ITE GROUP 227.20 157.70 258.00 Neutral Sell 185 1.42

ITV 87.80 51.65 89.90 Neutral Sell 82 1.52

JOHNSTON PRESS 5.75 4.11 8.18 Neutral Strong Buy 70 1.46

PEARSON 1119.00 1038.00 1255.00 Neutral Neutral 1165 0.66

PHOTO-ME INTL. 47.38 41.50 67.00 Neutral Strong Buy 90 0.86

PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON 305.00 190.88 305.00 Sell Sell 169 0.35

THOMSON REUTERS 28.28 26.21 39.25 Neutral Sell 9 0.51

STV GROUP 114.50 76.25 168.00 Neutral Sell 29 0.81

ST.IVES 73.75 68.50 102.25 Neutral Strong Buy 234 1.45

TRINITY MIRROR 33.25 33.25 54.25 Neutral Strong Buy 512 1.57

UBM 600.50 416.00 641.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1760 1.30

WILMINGTON GROUP 91.25 78.50 151.00 Neutral Buy 120 0.86

WPP 859.50 578.00 880.00 Neutral Neutral 895 1.29

YELL GROUP 3.50 3.35 11.00 Neutral Strong Buy 54 1.32

Mining Under Valued


ANGLO AMERICAN 2311.50 2138.50 3181.00 Neutral Strong Buy 5845 1.75

ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP 313.10 237.90 340.00 Neutral Neutral 328 0.95

ANTOFAGASTA 1178.00 900.50 1491.00 Neutral Sell 1040 1.38

BHP BILLITON 1943.00 1667.00 2560.00 Neutral Strong Buy 4362 1.40

LONMIN 1019.00 941.00 1646.00 Neutral Sell 893 1.92

RANDGOLD RESOURCES 5420.00 4580.00 7565.00 Neutral Sell 1629 0.33

RIO TINTO 3540.00 2712.50 4595.00 Neutral Buy 4873 1.42

UK COAL 15.00 14.75 47.00 Neutral Sell -60 0.94

VEDANTA RESOURCES 1202.00 928.00 2366.00 Neutral Strong Buy 4854 2.10

XSTRATA 1138.00 764.00 1550.00 Neutral Sell 1056 1.78

Oil & Gas Under Valued


BG GROUP 1424.00 1144.00 1547.00 Neutral Buy 1965 0.70

BP 446.00 363.20 504.60 Neutral Strong Buy 1325 1.06

CAIRN ENERGY 337.50 291.86 515.11 Neutral Buy 419 1.36

FORTUNE OIL 10.75 9.00 14.75 Neutral Strong Buy 24 0.86

HUNTING 912.00 530.00 968.00 Neutral Sell 807 1.30

JKX OIL & GAS 147.75 120.50 314.00 Neutral Strong Buy 377 1.36

MELROSE RESOURC ES 119.00 95.25 291.25 Neutral Strong Buy 656 1.14

PREMIER OIL 389.70 310.00 500.75 Neutral Buy 545 1.36

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL A(LON) 2154.00 1883.50 2402.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6653 0.91

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B 2208.00 1890.50 2489.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6714 0.92

SOCO INTERNATIONAL 298.90 278.00 397.50 Neutral Sell 204 0.47

TULLOW OIL 1518.00 945.50 1601.00 Neutral Sell 476 1.06

WOOD GROUP (JOHN) 728.00 469.90 763.50 Neutral Buy 804 1.36

Personal Care & Household Products Over Valued


MCBRIDE 125.25 108.75 151.06 Neutral Sell 106 0.87

PZ CUSSONS 333.00 285.00 387.90 Neutral Buy 377 0.74

RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP 3637.00 3100.00 3637.00 Neutral Sell 3389 0.34


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Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Under Valued


ARK THERAPEUTICS GP. 3.40 3.13 5.35 Buy Sell -7 0.97

ASTRAZENECA 2825.50 2543.50 3194.00 Neutral Strong Buy 10870 0.45

BTG 376.10 236.80 376.10 Neutral Sell 225 0.73

DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS 510.00 433.00 579.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1925 0.32

GLAXOSMITHKLINE 1441.50 1205.00 1497.00 Neutral Buy 2004 0.49

OXFORD BIOMEDICA 4.30 2.88 7.20 Buy Strong Buy 15 0.61

PHYTOPHARM 7.83 6.40 9.50 Buy Sell 1 0.92SHIRE 2025.00 1818.00 2300.00 Neutral Neutral 2010 0.63

SKYEPHARMA 41.00 31.00 66.13 Neutral Strong Buy 289 0.70

VERNALIS 24.00 18.75 49.00 Neutral Strong Buy 93 0.82

Software & Computer Services Under Valued


TIMEWEAVE 22.13 21.75 27.00 Neutral Strong Buy 49 0.73

ANITE 125.50 57.75 129.75 Neutral Sell 64 0.84

AVEVA GROUP 1660.00 1298.00 1799.00 Neutral Sell 981 1.48

COMPUTACENTER 431.60 324.70 490.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1126 1.09

KOFAX 300.00 225.00 503.50 Neutral Neutral 299 1.11

INNOVATION GROUP 20.75 16.63 23.00 Sell Neutral 20 0.92LOGICA 81.20 58.95 144.80 Neutral Strong Buy 220 1.36

MIC RO FOC US INTL. 468.30 242.90 476.70 Neutral Neutral 483 0.75

MISYS 349.30 214.90 420.20 Neutral Buy 438 1.33

PHOENIX IT GROUP 190.50 154.75 262.75 Neutral Strong Buy 503 0.88

RM 77.75 41.50 156.63 Neutral Sell -25 0.48

FIDESSA GROUP 1530.00 1444.00 2109.00 Neutral Buy 1773 0.82

SAGE GROUP 284.00 231.70 312.40 Neutral Buy 325 0.65

Speciality & Other Finance Over Valued


ABERDEEN ASSET MAN. 268.10 167.80 270.00 Neutral Sell 173 1.07

BREWIN DOLPHIN 169.00 113.70 177.00 Neutral Sell 126 0.72CAMELLIA 9775.00 8800.00 10950.00 Neutral Strong Buy 17946 0.87

CHARLES STANLEY GROUP 287.50 240.00 350.00 Neutral Neutral 298 0.96

CHARLES TAYLOR CNSL. 147.50 115.63 160.00 Neutral Buy 217 0.70

CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP 740.00 590.00 820.00 Neutral Sell 364 0.83

F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT 66.45 56.05 81.70 Neutral Buy 86 0.91

HELPHIRE GROUP 1.79 1.36 14.00 Neutral Sell 0 0.67

HENDERSON GROUP 122.20 95.05 163.70 Neutral Sell 98 1.42

ICAP 374.10 311.60 524.00 Neutral Sell 326 1.06

INTERMEDIATE CAPITAL GP. 256.10 197.90 345.00 Neutral Buy 290 1.65

INVESTEC 355.40 318.40 522.00 Neutral Sell 284 1.56

LONDON STOCK EX.GROUP 1093.00 756.50 1093.00 Neutral Sell 807 1.17

MAN GROUP 99.60 99.60 259.60 Buy Strong Buy 157 1.27

RATHBONE BROTHERS 1308.00 977.00 1316.00 Neutral Sell 1212 0.74

SCHRODERS 1461.00 1183.00 1906.00 Neutral Buy 1671 1.31

SCHRODERS NV 1113.00 970.00 1554.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1671 1.30


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Support Services Under Valued


ACAL 192.50 166.25 344.00 Neutral Strong Buy 357 0.94

AGGREKO 2241.00 1522.00 2316.00 Neutral Sell 1291 1.16

AMEC 1115.00 740.50 1207.00 Neutral Buy 1341 1.01

ASHTEAD GROUP 252.40 99.40 271.10 Neutral Sell 132 1.52

BABCOCK INTL. 828.50 570.50 835.00 Neutral Sell 733 0.56

BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS. 357.50 270.00 392.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1131 0.73

BUNZL 1018.00 676.50 1028.00 Neutral Neutral 1031 0.54UK MAIL GROUP 234.50 192.25 318.50 Neutral Strong Buy 567 0.34

CAPITA 736.50 611.50 767.00 Neutral Neutral 734 0.43

COMMUNISIS 31.88 23.75 39.75 Neutral Strong Buy 101 0.77

COMPASS GROUP 659.00 512.50 671.00 Neutral Buy 809 0.71

BERENDSEN 529.00 402.70 568.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1098 1.02

DE LA RUE 900.00 730.00 1001.00 Neutral Buy 1063 #NA

DIGNITY 850.50 725.00 854.50 Neutral Buy 1020 0.20

DIPLOMA 441.50 284.00 453.00 Neutral Buy 496 1.01

ELECTROCOMP. 234.40 182.20 294.90 Neutral Strong Buy 389 1.01

FILTRONA 482.00 296.30 484.50 Neutral Sell 447 1.11

G4S 288.10 219.90 292.10 Neutral Buy 407 0.58

HAYS 91.25 58.85 119.60 Neutral Strong Buy 150 0.98

HOMESERVE 237.40 214.70 532.00 Neutral Strong Buy 486 0.65

INTERSERVE 287.20 255.00 341.25 Neutral Strong Buy 833 1.35

INTERTEK GROUP 2563.00 1744.00 2570.00 Sell Sell 1691 0.86

JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP 29.63 25.25 36.00 Neutral Strong Buy 70 1.14

MANAGEMENT C NSL.GP. 39.13 27.75 45.50 Neutral Strong Buy 59 0.68

MENZIES (JOHN) 623.00 445.50 623.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1282 1.47

MICHAEL PAGE INTL. 438.00 323.00 567.00 Neutral Neutral 457 1.35

MITIE GROUP 288.40 205.20 288.40 Neutral Buy 422 0.61

MOUCHEL GROUP 8.00 4.75 78.00 Sell Sell -313 0.91

OFFICE2OFFICE 148.00 122.00 166.50 Neutral Strong Buy 300 0.39

PAYPOINT 650.00 450.00 670.00 Neutral Buy 762 0.72

PREMIER FARNELL 208.70 144.50 301.00 Neutral Strong Buy 369 1.18

REGUS 113.00 64.00 117.50 Neutral Sell 73 1.40

RENTOKIL INITIAL 89.90 58.20 100.90 Neutral Sell 53 1.30

REXAM 429.40 299.80 438.00 Neutral Buy 549 0.87

RICARDO 355.25 325.00 410.00 Neutral Strong Buy 569 0.82

ROBERT WALTERS 264.63 158.25 326.00 Neutral Buy 366 1.25

RPC GROUP 370.20 300.50 393.20 Neutral Buy 467 0.84

RPS GROUP 234.50 156.60 253.00 Neutral Buy 309 1.58

SERCO GROUP 552.50 458.00 597.50 Neutral Buy 703 0.57

SHANKS GROUP 92.95 90.80 130.90 Neutral Strong Buy 171 1.46

SPEEDY HIRE 27.75 18.50 34.00 Neutral Sell -8 1.31

TRIBAL GROUP 76.88 38.50 79.75 Neutral Sell -346 0.63

TRIFAST 45.50 36.25 52.88 Neutral Buy 66 0.88

VP 251.00 191.00 258.00 Neutral Strong Buy 605 0.90

WYG 54.00 47.00 956.25 Sell Sell -9816 0.77

WSP GROUP 244.00 160.00 363.50 Neutral Strong Buy 601 0.95

Telecommunication Services Under Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BT GROUP 216.70 161.00 232.10 Neutral Buy 256 0.92

CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS. 30.09 30.07 48.92 Neutral Strong Buy 135 0.65

INMARSAT 427.40 389.30 620.00 Neutral Sell 352 0.53

KCOM GROUP 71.05 59.75 84.00 Neutral Buy 82 1.27

TELECOM PLUS 693.00 470.00 802.00 Neutral Sell 470 0.04

VODAFONE GROUP 169.90 155.05 182.70 Neutral Neutral 185 0.63


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Transport Under Valued


BBA AVIATION 201.30 156.00 223.40 Neutral Sell 163 1.41

BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS. 394.00 282.00 505.00 Neutral Strong Buy 649 0.94

CLARKSON 1360.00 1015.00 1367.00 Neutral Buy 1648 0.81

EASYJET 483.70 302.54 495.80 Neutral Buy 540 0.77

FIRST GROUP 202.00 197.50 370.20 Neutral Strong Buy 410 1.08

FISHER(JAMES)& SONS 597.50 440.50 615.00 Neutral Sell 334 0.83

GO-AHEAD GROUP 1146.00 1125.00 1598.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1768 0.94NATIONAL EXPRESS 228.20 201.60 270.20 Neutral Sell 176 1.28

NORTHGATE 194.50 190.00 342.00 Neutral Strong Buy 387 1.38

STAGECOACH GROUP 246.00 219.96 287.40 Neutral Sell 207 0.88

WINCANTON 60.50 56.00 123.25 Neutral Strong Buy 159 0.85

Utilities Under Valued


CENTRICA 317.50 278.80 333.00 Neutral Neutral 337 0.49

NATIONAL GRID 648.50 569.00 659.00 Neutral Buy 825 0.55

PENNON GROUP 736.50 623.50 737.50 Neutral Sell 623 0.59

SEVERN TRENT 1656.00 1375.00 1656.00 Neutral Sell 1424 0.46

UNITED UTILITIES GROUP 601.50 560.00 637.00 Neutral Neutral 633 0.58


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uk trading & value indicator 20120419

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