uk trading & value indicator 20111227

8/3/2019 uk trading & value indicator 20111227

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27 December 2011

UK Trading &

ValueIndicator


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Intellisys www.intellisys.uk.com 27 December 2011

Page 2 of 25 Intellisys 27 December 2011

Contents

Market Pictures - Indices .........................................................................5FTSE 100 ................................................................................................ 5FTSE 250 ................................................................................................ 6FTSE All Share Index................................................................................7FTSE AIM All Share ..................................................................................8

Market Pictures Interest Rates............................................................10UK Bank Lending Rates........................................................................... 10Eurozone Lending Rates.......................................................................... 11US Federal Funds Rate ........................................................................... 12

Market Pictures Exchange Rates ......................................................... 13Market Pictures - Oil............................................................................... 15Aerospace & Defence ............................................... Over Valued 16Automobiles & Parts ................................................ Over Valued 16Banks ............................................................... Over Valued 16Beverages .......................................................... Over Valued 16Chemicals .......................................................... Over Valued 16Construction & Building Materials ................................ Over Valued 17Electronics & Electrical Equipment ............................... Under Valued 17Engineering & Machinery .......................................... Over Valued 17Food & Drug Stores ................................................. Under Valued 18Food Producers & Processors ..................................... Over Valued 18General Retail ....................................................... Over Valued 18Health ................................................................ Over Valued 18Household Goods & Textiles ...................................... Under Valued 18Information Technology & Hardware ............................ Over Valued 19Insurance .......................................................... Over Valued 19Leisure & Hotels .................................................... Under Valued 19Life Assurance .................................................... Over Valued 19Media & Entertainment ............................................ Over Valued 20Mining ................................................................ Under Valued 20Oil & Gas ............................................................. Under Valued 20Personal Care & Household Products ............................ Fair Value 20Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology ................................ Under Valued 21Software & Computer Services ................................... Over Valued 21Speciality & Other Finance ........................................ Over Valued 21Support Services .................................................... Under Valued 22Telecommunication Services ...................................... Under Valued 22Transport .......................................................... Over Valued 23Utilities ............................................................. Under Valued 23DISCLAIMER............................................................................................. 24


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IntroductionThe overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guidethat will identify those shares that merit their investment attention in anincreasingly time critical and information noisy trading environment.

The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box,typically, before the official open of the London Stock Markets.

Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an

investment are the two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.

TimingIntellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the keyfactors that influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters,these have been established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cutthrough the daily investment noise.

Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimentalfactors as well as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters

(analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment meetings.

From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage,the trading indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in

identifying good trading points as well as some 74% accurate for overall trendcorrelation.

The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40

stocks analysed.

Individual Stock Recommendation & Trend Accuracy Scores

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

Best Buy/Sell Trend

Source: Intellisys


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ValueA similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Prices.

On a daily basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from notonly the Profit & Loss Account but also the Balance Sheet and CashflowStatement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation models.

Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his

investment research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investmentvaluation techniques lend themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.

The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make theTarget as realistically valid as possible.

Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Price delivery is not only afunction of market levels but a management teams ability to establish andmaintain a value generating operating environment set against a constantlychanging global background.

The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to startwith a modest range of some 6 10 valuation measures and remove those that

are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis approach is the opposite we useas many valuation methodologies as possible.

Further, Intellisys recognises that some target prices may appear strange or

extreme. However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use themas starting points to challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion ofa stock.

In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assistinvestors from falling in love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by

management cults.

ConclusionNo investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and

investment systems active position monitoring is critical for maximisedinvestment performance.

Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction

with, and not separate from subscribers existing investment systems as well asdiscussing investment options with their financial advisers.

Philip Morrish ([email protected])

RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target PricesIntellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this

publication is provided solely to enable you to make your own investmentdecisions.

If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, youshould contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not besuitable for everyone.The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise

and you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominatedin a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the valueof stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is not

necessarily a guide to future performance.


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Market Pictures - Indices

FTSE 100

Index PE

FTSE 100

3,512.1

3,512.1

4,944.4

6,091.3

6,091.3

6,732.4

5,512.7

2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100 PE

7.0

7.0

7.9

10.0

14.1

18.2

18.2

5 10 15 20

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

% change % change

1M 7.3; 3M 8.8; 12M -8.1 1M 8.3; 3M 23.5; 12M -19.4

Yield RSI

FTSE 100 DY

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.6

3.9

6.0

6.2

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100 RSI

11.1

58.2

72.5

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

% change

1M -7.2; 3M -5.0; 12M 23.1


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FTSE 250

Index PE

FTSE 250

5,491.5

5,769.8

9,425.9

9,984.2

12,167.8

12,167.8

12,220.2

500 5500 10500 15500

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250 PE

7.1

7.1

7.1

15.1

19.5

27.8

27.8

5 10 15 20 25 30

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

% change % change

1M 4.3; 3M 1.7; 12M -13.7 1M 113.6; 3M 4.7; 12M -21.4

Yield RSI

FTSE 250 DY

1.9

2.2

2.2

3.2

3.3

5.1

5.7

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250 RSI

7.9

51.4

71.0

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

% change

1M -3.1; 3M 4.0; 12M 43.2


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FTSE All Share Index

Index PE

FTSE ALL SHARE

1,781.6

1,781.6

2,557.8

2,827.1

3,160.9

3,160.9

3,479.0

500 1500 2500 3500 4500

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE PE

7.4

7.4

8.5

10.5

14.6

19.5

19.5

5 10 15 20 25

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

% change % change

1M 6.8; 3M 7.6; 12M -8.9 1M 17.3; 3M 21.0; 12M -19.9

Yield RSI

FTSE ALL SHARE DY

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.6

3.8

5.8

6.1

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE RSI

10.4

57.4

72.2

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

% change

1M -6.6; 3M -3.5; 12M 24.9


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FTSE AIM All Share

Index PE

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE

373.8

373.8

657.8

686.0

968.3

968.3

1,236.6

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE PE

203,906.0-

203,906.0-

203,906.0-

93.3

211.5

1,240.8

1,439.5

-250000 -200000 -150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

% change % change

1M 2.2; 3M -4.5; 12M -24.9 1M 6.5; 3M 12.0; 12M -168.6

Yield RSI

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE DY

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.8

2.1

2.1

0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE RSI

6.9

47.7

73.6

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

% change

1M -4.0; 3M -1.4; 12M 30.4


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S&P 500

Index PE

S&P 500 COMPOSITE

676.5

676.5

1,099.2

1,265.3

1,363.6

1,363.6

1,565.2

400 900 1400 1900

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE PE

13.4

13.4

13.4

14.3

18.4

146.3

146.3

10 60 110 160

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

% change % change

1M 8.9; 3M 11.3; 12M 0.7 1M 4.5; 3M -0.4; 12M -18.6

Yield RSI

S&P 500 COMPOSITE DY

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.3

2.4

3.2

3.4

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE RSI

11.2

63.0

73.6

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

% change

1M -3.0; 3M 0.5; 12M 20.3


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Market Pictures Interest Rates

UK Bank Lending Rates

UK

UK CLEARING BANKS BASE RATE

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

2.00

5.75

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

% change

1M 0.0; 3M 0.0; 12M 0.0

UK Lending PE

UK CLEARING BANKS BASE RATE PE

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

50.0

17.4

10 60 110 160 210

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo


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Eurozone Lending Rates

Eurozone

EUROZONE MARGINAL LENDING RATE

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

2.25

3.00

5.25

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

% change

1M -12.5; 3M -22.2; 12M 0.0

Eurozone Lending PE

EUROZONE MARGINAL LENDING RATE - PE

57.1

57.1

57.1

57.1

44.4

33.3

19.0

10 20 30 40 50 60

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo


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US Federal Funds Rate

US

US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

0.05

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.19

0.25

5.41

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

% change

1M -22.2; 3M -12.5; 12M -63.2

US Lending PE

US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE - PE

2,000.0

2,000.0

1,666.7

1,428.6

526.3

400.0

18.5

10 510 1010 1510 2010 2510

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo


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Market Pictures Exchange Rates

US$/

US$/

1.37

1.37

1.53

1.56

1.67

1.70

2.11

1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

% change

1M 0.8; 3M 1.3; 12M 1.5

/

EURO/

1.02

1.02

1.11

1.20

1.20

1.24

1.53

1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

% change

1M 3.2; 3M 5.0; 12M 1.8


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Market Pictures Exchange Rates

US$/

US$/EURO

1.19

1.19

1.29

1.30

1.48

1.51

1.60

0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

% change

1M -2.2; 3M -3.4; 12M -0.6

/

YEN/

117.1

117.1

117.1

122.2

139.4

162.5

250.1

100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 240.0 260.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

% change

1M 1.6; 3M 3.8; 12M -4.5


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Market Pictures - Oil

Brent Monthly FOB US$/bbl

Oil (Brent) Monthly FOB U$/bbl

34.6

34.6

92.8

109.2

126.6

126.6

145.6

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

% change

1M 1.55; 3M 0.72; 12M 15.64

RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target PricesIntellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in thispublication is provided solely to enable you to make your own investmentdecisions.

If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you

should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be

suitable for everyone.

The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as riseand you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated

in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the valueof stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance.


16/25



Aerospace & Defence Over Valued

Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BAE SYSTEMS 278.40 248.10 361.10 Neutral Strong Buy 569 0.64

CHEMRING GROUP 382.00 368.80 736.50 Neutral Buy 430 0.54

COBHAM 173.00 165.90 236.50 Neutral Buy 221 0.95

MEGGITT 350.90 305.00 397.60 Neutral Sell 310 1.35

ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS 725.50 552.19 738.00 Neutral Sell 566 1.09

SMITHS GROUP 901.00 869.50 1429.00 Neutral Neutral 921 0.73

ULTRA ELECTRONICS HDG. 1415.00 1305.00 1830.00 Neutral Sell 1101 0.58

UMECO 358.00 243.50 512.50 Neutral Neutral 347 0.81

Automobiles & Parts Over Valued


GKN 183.90 157.00 245.00 Neutral Sell 145 1.91

INCHCAPE 286.20 268.60 425.40 Neutral Sell 258 1.40

LOOKERS 49.00 47.00 72.75 Neutral Buy 58 1.34

PENDRAGON 7.35 6.80 19.71 Neutral Sell 7 1.07

Banks

Over Valued


BARCLAYS 179.00 138.85 333.55 Neutral Sell 46 1.81

HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50) 490.05 463.50 730.90 Neutral Strong Buy 828 1.12

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP 25.69 21.84 69.61 Sell Strong Buy 142 1.72

ROYAL BANK OF SCTL.GP. 20.54 17.34 49.00 Sell Sell -29 1.24

STANDARD CHARTERED 1388.50 1169.50 1769.00 Neutral Sell 1258 1.69

Beverages Over Valued


BARR (AG) 1220.00 1031.00 1395.00 Neutral Neutral 1220 0.42

DIAGEO 1378.00 1112.00 1390.00 Neutral Sell 1242 0.55

SABMILLER 2238.00 1979.00 2354.50 Neutral Buy 2658 0.98

Chemicals Over Valued


CRODA INTERNATIONAL 1801.00 1456.00 2081.00 Neutral Sell 1460 1.06

ELEMENTIS 139.00 107.50 187.40 Neutral Neutral 137 1.06

JOHNSON MATTHEY 1819.00 1523.00 2119.00 Neutral Sell 1569 1.43

VICTREX 1101.00 1025.00 1590.00 Neutral Neutral 1046 1.22

YULE CATTO 165.10 148.00 253.00 Neutral Strong Buy 274 1.25

ZOTEFOAMS 113.00 110.00 158.00 Neutral Strong Buy 180 1.01


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Construction & Building Materials Over Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BALFOUR BEATTY 261.50 214.60 357.30 Neutral Neutral 270 0.85

BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS 91.10 67.50 119.00 Neutral Sell 54 1.40

BELLWAY 695.00 540.50 776.50 Neutral Sell 611 1.01

BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE) 1279.00 884.50 1360.00 Neutral Sell 1185 0.69

BOVIS HOMES GROUP 433.40 326.50 499.60 Neutral Sell 187 1.08

CARILLION 301.70 281.00 403.20 Neutral Buy 428 1.10

CLARKE (T) 41.25 35.50 128.00 Neutral Strong Buy 177 0.84

COSTAIN GROUP 180.50 180.00 265.00 Buy Strong Buy 678 0.56

GALLIFORD TRY 463.00 286.50 530.00 Neutral Neutral 507 1.03

KELLER 255.00 239.25 698.50 Neutral Buy 363 1.27

KIER GROUP 1333.00 1097.00 1458.00 Neutral Strong Buy 2777 1.05

LOW & BONAR 39.25 38.00 76.75 Neutral Buy 54 1.04

MARSHALLS 87.75 83.25 124.50 Neutral Sell 61 1.35

MORGAN SINDALL GROUP 576.50 510.00 730.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1285 0.89

PERSIMMON 461.30 374.00 518.50 Neutral Buy 572 1.06

REDROW 113.50 103.50 139.00 Neutral Sell 78 0.96

SIG 81.65 76.95 153.50 Neutral Sell -5 1.56

TAYLOR WIMPEY 36.77 28.71 43.31 Sell Sell 11 1.49

TRAVIS PERKINS 797.00 715.00 1127.00 Neutral Buy 962 1.86

WOLSELEY 2081.00 1404.00 2261.00 Neutral Sell 1578 1.41

Electronics & Electrical Equipment Under Valued


DIALIGHT 697.50 507.50 847.00 Neutral Sell 365 0.76

DOMINO PRINTING SCIENCES 513.00 434.30 705.00 Neutral Neutral 517 1.17

E2V TECHNOLOGIES 105.25 86.75 146.00 Neutral Buy 126 1.31

INVENSYS 205.60 180.90 364.30 Neutral Strong Buy 310 1.50

LAIRD 147.00 127.90 207.00 Neutral Neutral 152 2.19

OXFORD INSTRUMENTS 975.50 600.50 1010.00 Neutral Sell 656 0.98

RENISHAW 920.00 800.00 1886.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1524 1.21

SPECTRIS 1253.00 1039.00 1679.00 Neutral Sell 976 1.38

BIOME TECHNOLOGIES 0.16 0.14 0.34 Neutral Strong Buy 0 0.64

TT ELECTRONICS 134.50 120.50 208.00 Neutral Buy 199 1.56

XAAR 233.00 207.50 295.00 Neutral Sell 105 1.14

Engineering & Machinery Over Valued


AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP 71.00 62.50 138.00 Neutral Strong Buy 272 1.31

BODYCOTE 263.10 225.60 397.70 Neutral Buy 321 1.54

CASTINGS 270.00 250.50 358.00 Neutral Strong Buy 465 0.98

COOKSON GROUP 501.50 395.80 724.50 Neutral Buy 695 2.25

FENNER 400.40 280.00 422.50 Neutral Sell 255 1.40

HALMA 334.90 306.30 429.60 Neutral Neutral 330 0.75

HILL & SMITH 253.25 235.00 393.50 Neutral Strong Buy 526 1.37

IMI 746.50 636.50 1119.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1223 1.39

METALRAX GROUP 8.12 7.37 12.00 Neutral Sell 7 0.85

MORGAN CRUCIBLE 257.00 224.00 357.10 Neutral Buy 305 1.72

ROTORK 1864.00 1501.00 1864.00 Neutral Sell 1599 1.00

SENIOR 168.90 132.60 190.60 Neutral Neutral 167 1.75

SEVERFIELD-ROWEN 168.25 150.00 333.50 Neutral Sell 153 1.03SPIRAX-SARCO 1846.00 1649.00 2063.00 Neutral Neutral 2026 0.85

VITEC GROUP 559.00 488.00 661.75 Neutral Buy 661 1.51

WEIR GROUP 1965.00 1375.00 2218.00 Neutral Sell 724 1.41


18/25



Food & Drug Stores Under Valued


GREGGS 505.00 445.00 550.50 Neutral Sell 384 0.54

MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS. 320.70 262.70 322.90 Neutral Buy 363 0.49

SAINSBURY (J) 295.20 263.50 391.50 Neutral Strong Buy 549 0.65

TESCO 391.00 356.25 439.00 Neutral Neutral 425 0.81

THORNTONS 20.13 20.13 100.75 Neutral Buy 24 0.82

Food Producers & Processors Over Valued


ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS 1104.00 940.00 1182.00 Neutral Sell 520 0.58

CRANSWICK 732.50 588.50 882.00 Neutral Sell 693 0.60

DAIRY CREST 331.00 318.80 424.90 Neutral Neutral 333 0.97

DEVRO 260.00 223.50 296.90 Neutral Strong Buy 408 0.30

PREMIER FOODS 5.93 3.29 35.12 Neutral Sell -5 1.44

ROBERT WISEMAN DAIRIES 245.25 233.25 356.50 Neutral Strong Buy 490 0.40

TATE & LYLE 690.00 511.00 690.00 Neutral Sell 382 0.64

UNILEVER (UK) 2128.00 1793.00 2137.00 Neutral Sell 1775 0.64

General RetailOver Valued


ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS 20.25 16.00 25.25 Neutral Neutral 22 0.73

BLACKS LEISURE 0.75 0.75 42.25 Neutral Strong Buy 65 0.27

BROWN (N) GROUP 227.20 227.00 311.20 Neutral Sell 183 0.50

BURBERRY GROUP 1196.00 1030.00 1600.00 Neutral Sell 408 1.35

CARPETRIGHT 490.00 375.00 835.50 Sell Sell 142 0.99

CLINTON CARDS 10.75 7.50 28.00 Sell Sell 7 0.64

DIXONS RETAIL 9.66 9.36 23.90 Neutral Strong Buy 22 1.40

FINDEL 3.67 2.20 10.72 Neutral Sell -0 0.96

FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP 44.00 40.50 134.00 Neutral Strong Buy 80 0.92

GAME GROUP 7.50 6.20 73.25 Neutral Strong Buy 130 0.93

HALFORDS GROUP 288.70 269.50 459.70 Neutral Neutral 299 0.63

JJB SPORTS 5.20 5.20 52.70 Neutral Strong Buy 958 0.87

JD SPORTS FASHION 615.50 570.00 1030.00 Neutral Buy 922 0.46

KESA ELECTRICALS 63.20 60.20 164.00 Neutral Strong Buy 219 1.27

KINGFISHER 246.00 217.00 287.10 Neutral Sell 219 0.97MARKS & SPENCER GROUP 307.00 301.80 402.20 Neutral Sell 279 0.74

MOSS BROTHERS GROUP 33.50 23.75 40.00 Neutral Sell 18 1.03

MOTHERCARE 164.75 127.30 613.00 Neutral Strong Buy 266 0.51

NEXT 2692.00 1868.00 2810.00 Neutral Sell 1571 0.80

TED BAKER 652.50 572.50 830.00 Neutral Sell 354 0.52

TOPPS TILES 25.50 21.50 84.50 Neutral Sell 19 1.31

Health Over Valued


CONSORT MEDICAL 530.00 482.50 590.00 Neutral Sell 474 0.39

CORIN GROUP 42.25 36.50 59.00 Neutral Sell 39 0.72

SMITH & NEPHEW 606.00 521.00 742.00 Neutral Neutral 618 0.40

Household Goods & Textiles Under Valued


HARVARD INTL. 37.63 21.75 40.00 Neutral Sell 33 0.46

GAMES WORKSHOP 445.00 342.50 470.00 Neutral Sell 409 0.34

HEADLAM GROUP 265.00 233.25 354.00 Neutral Buy 337 0.92

HORNBY 132.50 105.00 150.00 Neutral Neutral 139 0.70


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Information Technology & Hardware Over Valued


ARM HOLDINGS 579.50 423.30 651.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1261 0.77

CSR 183.00 154.10 447.00 Neutral Strong Buy 5115 1.12

FILTRONIC 16.50 14.50 62.00 Neutral Sell -193 0.59

IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES 538.50 296.90 543.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1098 0.97

PSION 46.00 46.00 102.75 Neutral Strong Buy 2345 1.19

SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS 114.80 105.80 160.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1170 1.01

WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS 130.75 96.00 312.00 Neutral Sell 20 1.01

Insurance Over Valued


ADMIRAL GROUP 831.50 787.00 1754.00 Neutral Sell 342 0.54

AMLIN 312.70 270.60 427.00 Neutral Strong Buy 2252 0.46

BEAZLEY 134.00 109.60 139.20 Neutral Strong Buy 1175 0.53

CATLIN GROUP 387.30 334.00 421.40 Neutral Sell 64 0.32

HISCOX 372.80 340.50 424.70 Neutral Strong Buy 2234 0.49

JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON 687.00 576.00 764.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1775 0.33

RSA INSURANCE GROUP 104.40 99.60 143.50 Neutral Strong Buy 945 0.46

NOVAE GROUP 327.63 285.00 410.00 Neutral Strong Buy 2156 0.51

Leisure & Hotels Under Valued


ARENA LEISURE 37.63 26.00 42.75 Neutral Sell 17 0.79

CARNIVAL 2115.00 1742.00 3153.00 Neutral Strong Buy 3516 1.14

ENTERPRISE INNS 28.75 27.00 121.70 Neutral Strong Buy 76 1.71

TUI TRAVEL 158.70 136.70 271.90 Neutral Strong Buy 568 0.96

FULLER SMITH 'A' 695.00 590.00 752.00 Neutral Neutral 699 0.47

GREENE KING 471.00 410.00 518.00 Neutral Buy 697 0.87

LADBROKES 122.80 114.00 155.30 Neutral Strong Buy 226 0.99

ICTL.HTLS.GP. 1120.00 955.00 1435.00 Neutral Sell 818 1.31

MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS. 392.30 371.20 600.50 Neutral Buy 496 1.39

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS 226.60 215.60 361.00 Neutral Sell 89 1.02

BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM. 130.30 100.60 214.70 Neutral Neutral 131 1.29

PUNCH TAVERNS 10.75 9.14 15.70 Neutral Sell -169 1.29

RANK GROUP 126.10 109.50 153.70 Neutral Buy 187 0.95RESTAURANT GROUP 288.20 254.90 335.00 Neutral Buy 326 0.90

WETHERSPOON (JD) 421.10 380.50 468.30 Neutral Strong Buy 678 0.75

WHITBREAD 1538.00 1409.00 1887.00 Neutral Buy 1755 1.05

WILLIAM HILL 188.70 168.60 244.10 Neutral Strong Buy 292 0.93

MARSTON'S 90.50 84.60 114.50 Neutral Strong Buy 162 1.25

Life Assurance Over Valued


AVIVA 300.00 275.30 477.90 Neutral Strong Buy 435 1.22

CHESNARA 170.25 161.75 264.00 Neutral Neutral 177 0.58

LEGAL & GENERAL 102.50 89.80 123.80 Neutral Buy 83 1.65

OLD MUTUAL 135.30 98.05 144.80 Neutral Sell 160 1.62

PRUDENTIAL 624.50 509.00 777.00 Neutral Sell 316 1.72

ST.JAMES'S PLACE 320.90 265.70 376.00 Neutral Strong Buy 121 0.79


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Media & Entertainment Over Valued


AEGIS GROUP 139.90 116.17 159.08 Neutral Sell 83 1.29

BLOOMSBURY PBL. 98.75 91.25 138.00 Neutral Buy 116 0.46

BRITISH SKY BCAST.GROUP 719.00 618.50 850.00 Neutral Sell 618 0.64

CENTAUR MEDIA 33.75 33.25 73.00 Neutral Sell -52 1.00

DAILY MAIL 'A' 392.70 343.40 594.50 Neutral Buy 524 1.08

EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR 639.00 522.50 736.00 Neutral Sell 606 1.05

INFORMA 356.30 313.90 461.10 Neutral Sell 293 1.50

ITE GROUP 203.70 157.70 258.20 Neutral Sell 141 1.40

ITV 64.45 51.65 93.45 Neutral Buy 73 1.47

JOHNSTON PRESS 5.38 4.11 12.75 Neutral Strong Buy 55 1.46

PEARSON 1214.00 983.00 1214.00 Neutral Sell 993 0.70

PHOTO-ME INTL. 48.00 39.50 67.00 Neutral Strong Buy 81 0.85

PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON 271.00 132.75 271.50 Neutral Sell 136 0.38

THOMSON REUTERS 26.93 26.21 41.49 Neutral Sell 24 0.52

STV GROUP 83.50 81.00 168.00 Neutral Buy 101 0.78

ST.IVES 80.25 68.50 110.00 Neutral Strong Buy 205 1.33

TRINITY MIRROR 49.00 37.50 93.00 Neutral Strong Buy 432 1.56

UBM 479.50 416.00 725.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1521 1.28

WILMINGTON GROUP 85.75 82.50 183.00 Neutral Buy 101 0.86

WPP 660.00 578.00 846.50 Neutral Buy 760 1.27

YELL GROUP 5.11 3.35 14.75 Neutral Strong Buy 40 1.32

Mining Under Valued


ANGLO AMERICAN 2358.50 2138.50 3437.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6089 1.74

ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP 272.30 237.90 369.25 Neutral Buy 350 0.92

ANTOFAGASTA 1228.00 900.50 1634.00 Neutral Sell 1029 1.38

BHP BILLITON 1874.00 1667.00 2631.50 Neutral Strong Buy 4362 1.39

LONMIN 970.00 941.00 1983.00 Neutral Sell 792 1.89

RANDGOLD RESOURCES 6650.00 4425.00 7555.00 Neutral Sell 1772 0.30

RIO TINTO 3157.50 2712.50 4712.00 Neutral Strong Buy 5022 1.40

UK COAL 28.50 28.50 55.25 Neutral Sell -72 1.05

VEDANTA RESOURCES 928.00 2559.00 Neutral Strong Buy 5075 2.02

XSTRATA 979.80 764.00 1550.00 Neutral Buy 1124 1.77

Oil & Gas Under Valued


BG GROUP 1348.50 1144.00 1564.50 Neutral Buy 1843 0.70

BP 459.70 363.20 509.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1212 1.05

CAIRN ENERGY 264.90 257.80 469.70 Neutral Buy 321 1.31

FORTUNE OIL 10.25 9.00 14.75 Neutral Strong Buy 22 0.86

HUNTING 752.00 530.00 817.00 Neutral Buy 902 1.31

JKX OIL & GAS 137.00 128.00 335.10 Neutral Strong Buy 353 1.34

MELROSE RESOURCES 122.63 95.25 297.00 Neutral Strong Buy 613 1.12

PREMIER OIL 363.00 310.00 535.00 Neutral Buy 508 1.31

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL A(LON) 2327.00 1883.50 2327.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6127 0.93

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B 2427.00 1890.50 2427.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6189 0.94

SOCO INTERNATIONAL 297.50 278.00 400.00 Neutral Sell 192 0.50

TULLOW OIL 1385.00 945.50 1493.00 Neutral Sell 445 1.07

WOOD GROUP (JOHN) 651.00 469.90 715.75 Neutral Buy 732 1.35

Personal Care & Household Products Fair Value


MCBRIDE 114.00 110.75 180.85 Neutral Neutral 110 0.87

PZ CUSSONS 341.80 308.70 404.00 Neutral Neutral 353 0.80

RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP 3180.00 3015.00 3643.00 Neutral Neutral 3076 0.33


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Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Under Valued


ARK THERAPEUTICS GP. 3.30 3.23 5.68 Buy Strong Buy 10 0.93

ASTRAZENECA 2954.50 2543.50 3194.00 Neutral Strong Buy 10508 0.45

BTG 307.60 210.10 309.70 Neutral Sell 117 0.72

DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS 512.00 433.00 536.50 Neutral Strong Buy 940 0.33

GLAXOSMITHKLINE 1456.00 1127.50 1458.00 Neutral Neutral 1411 0.49

OXFORD BIOMEDICA 2.95 2.91 7.20 Buy Sell -2 0.63

PHYTOPHARM 7.83 6.40 9.75 Buy Sell -2 0.89

SHIRE 2188.00 1533.00 2188.00 Neutral Sell 1363 0.64

SKYEPHARMA 33.00 30.25 66.13 Neutral Strong Buy 273 0.73

VERNALIS 18.88 18.75 50.00 Neutral Sell -19 0.82

Software & Computer Services Over Valued


TIMEWEAVE 24.00 21.50 27.00 Neutral Strong Buy 41 0.71

ANITE 92.00 57.75 93.50 Neutral Sell 52 0.81

AVEVA GROUP 1466.00 1298.00 1799.00 Neutral Sell 832 1.46

COMPUTACENTER 338.00 324.70 490.00 Neutral Strong Buy 778 1.08

KOFAX 237.50 225.00 535.00 Neutral Neutral 238 1.05

INNOVATION GROUP 20.25 14.75 23.00 Neutral Sell 15 0.91

LOGICA 60.00 58.95 147.20 Buy Strong Buy 158 1.34MICRO FOCUS INTL. 377.10 239.40 426.20 Neutral Neutral 373 0.73

MISYS 234.80 214.90 420.20 Neutral Buy 327 1.28

PHOENIX IT GROUP 159.50 155.00 290.00 Neutral Strong Buy 390 0.85

RM 61.25 41.50 177.00 Neutral Strong Buy 318 0.41

FIDESSA GROUP 1490.00 1444.00 2109.00 Neutral Neutral 1447 0.81

SAGE GROUP 289.70 231.70 302.00 Neutral Sell 272 0.66

Speciality & Other Finance Over Valued


ABERDEEN ASSET MAN. 205.10 167.80 240.00 Neutral Sell 88 1.07

BREWIN DOLPHIN 135.40 113.70 185.40 Neutral Sell 127 0.69

CAMELLIA 9600.00 8800.00 10950.00 Neutral Strong Buy 15790 0.88

CHARLES STANLEY GROUP 273.63 240.00 350.00 Neutral Neutral 264 0.94

CHARLES TAYLOR CNSL. 124.00 115.63 166.50 Neutral Buy 186 0.70CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP 605.50 590.00 888.50 Neutral Sell 288 0.80

F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT 63.50 56.05 92.90 Neutral Buy 80 0.92

HELPHIRE GROUP 1.99 1.36 17.38 Neutral Strong Buy 3 0.64

HENDERSON GROUP 102.30 95.05 173.10 Neutral Sell 85 1.43

ICAP 344.60 311.60 570.50 Neutral Sell 280 1.08

INTERMEDIATE CAPITAL GP. 227.60 197.90 360.30 Neutral Neutral 229 1.62

INVESTEC 335.80 318.40 538.00 Neutral Sell 208 1.54

LONDON STOCK EX.GROUP 786.00 756.50 1076.00 Neutral Sell 648 1.15

MAN GROUP 127.90 123.60 311.00 Neutral Buy 165 1.28

RATHBONE BROTHERS 1021.00 977.00 1257.00 Neutral Buy 1132 0.72

SCHRODERS 1300.00 1183.00 1922.00 Neutral Buy 1501 1.32

SCHRODERS NV 1054.00 970.00 1554.00 Neutral Buy 1501 1.32


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Support Services Under Valued


ACAL 177.50 169.50 367.50 Neutral Strong Buy 309 0.96

AGGREKO 2002.00 1394.48 2034.00 Neutral Sell 1150 1.19

AMEC 902.50 740.50 1251.00 Neutral Buy 1169 1.00

ASHTEAD GROUP 222.00 99.40 222.00 Neutral Sell 109 1.50

BABCOCK INTL. 708.00 542.00 733.00 Neutral Sell 628 0.56

BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS. 329.00 230.00 345.00 Neutral Strong Buy 981 0.70

BUNZL 861.50 676.50 861.50 Neutral Neutral 913 0.53

UK MAIL GROUP 205.50 192.25 335.00 Neutral Strong Buy 496 0.27

CAPITA GROUP 627.00 611.50 786.50 Neutral Neutral 638 0.43

COMMUNISIS 26.00 23.75 37.00 Neutral Strong Buy 87 0.71

COMPASS GROUP 592.50 512.50 612.00 Neutral Buy 665 0.74

BERENDSEN 432.50 402.70 568.00 Neutral Buy 631 1.02

DE LA RUE 895.00 667.00 936.00 Neutral Neutral 967 #NA

DIGNITY 814.50 648.50 854.50 Neutral Neutral 896 0.23

DIPLOMA 342.50 263.50 414.25 Neutral Sell 294 0.99

ELECTROCOMP. 193.40 182.20 294.90 Neutral Strong Buy 339 1.00

FILTRONA 380.90 242.90 397.10 Neutral Neutral 392 1.12

G4S 264.50 219.90 291.00 Neutral Buy 350 0.62

HAYS 62.10 58.85 133.60 Neutral Strong Buy 130 0.96

HOMESERVE 296.00 218.50 532.00 Neutral Buy 431 0.67

INTERSERVE 314.30 215.75 341.25 Neutral Strong Buy 720 1.39

INTERTEK GROUP 1940.00 1715.00 2148.00 Neutral Sell 1487 0.87

JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP 26.75 25.50 36.00 Neutral Strong Buy 61 1.16

MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP. 29.25 27.75 45.50 Neutral Strong Buy 50 0.67

MENZIES (JOHN) 529.50 425.00 550.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1111 1.44

MICHAEL PAGE INTL. 340.80 323.00 567.00 Neutral Buy 404 1.34

MITIE GROUP 239.70 195.90 258.10 Neutral Strong Buy 366 0.61

MOUCHEL GROUP 5.15 5.15 154.75 Neutral Sell -264 0.88

OFFICE2OFFICE 139.00 112.50 166.50 Neutral Strong Buy 254 0.36

PAYPOINT 550.00 327.25 570.00 Neutral Buy 677 0.74

PREMIER FARNELL 178.70 144.50 308.80 Neutral Strong Buy 322 1.18

REGUS 85.00 64.00 119.00 Neutral Sell 64 1.41

RENTOKIL INITIAL 62.00 58.20 104.90 Neutral Sell 46 1.30

REXAM 349.90 299.80 400.00 Neutral Buy 472 0.86

RICARDO 361.00 291.00 410.00 Neutral Buy 497 0.84

ROBERT WALTERS 161.75 158.25 347.00 Neutral Strong Buy 321 1.20

RPC GROUP 358.60 231.50 384.80 Neutral Buy 400 0.81

RPS GROUP 180.60 156.60 253.00 Neutral Buy 267 1.55

SERCO GROUP 468.60 458.00 618.50 Neutral Buy 612 0.58SHANKS GROUP 93.50 91.70 130.90 Neutral Strong Buy 147 1.45

SPEEDY HIRE 19.25 18.50 34.00 Neutral Sell -8 1.27

TRIBAL GROUP 43.38 36.25 51.50 Neutral Sell -265 0.52

TRIFAST 37.75 36.25 52.88 Neutral Buy 57 0.88

VP 216.62 191.00 253.75 Neutral Strong Buy 527 0.89

WYG 55.00 48.38 1237.51 Neutral Sell -8146 0.78

WSP GROUP 204.50 160.00 385.00 Neutral Strong Buy 518 0.94

Telecommunication Services Under Valued


BT GROUP 192.50 161.00 204.10 Neutral Buy 262 0.92

CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS. 37.93 31.25 51.20 Neutral Strong Buy 139 0.65

INMARSAT 408.80 389.30 719.50 Neutral Sell 352 0.52

KCOM GROUP 69.50 57.50 84.00 Neutral Buy 85 1.27

TELECOM PLUS 760.50 433.00 802.00 Neutral Sell 498 0.13

VODAFONE GROUP 176.30 155.05 182.75 Neutral Neutral 185 0.66


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Transport Over Valued


BBA AVIATION 177.60 156.00 240.80 Neutral Sell 165 1.37

BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS. 307.25 282.00 550.00 Neutral Strong Buy 648 0.91

CLARKSON 1083.00 1015.00 1355.00 Neutral Sell 370 0.82

EASYJET 385.90 301.00 474.00 Neutral Neutral 408 0.76

FIRST GROUP 334.20 301.80 412.60 Neutral Neutral 340 1.10

FISHER(JAMES)& SONS 500.00 440.50 574.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1764 0.84

GO-AHEAD GROUP 1348.00 1190.00 1598.00 Neutral Sell 173 0.97

NATIONAL EXPRESS 216.80 201.60 270.20 Neutral Strong Buy 360 1.30

NORTHGATE 195.40 191.80 346.70 Neutral Neutral 197 1.35

STAGECOACH GROUP 260.70 199.97 272.41 Neutral Sell 178 0.90

WINCANTON 63.25 56.00 174.00 Neutral Sell 0 0.85

Utilities Under Valued


CENTRICA 290.30 278.80 345.80 Neutral Buy 320 0.51

NATIONAL GRID 618.00 530.00 649.50 Neutral Neutral 604 0.58

PENNON GROUP 703.50 584.50 737.50 Neutral Sell 604 0.63

SEVERN TRENT 1481.00 1368.00 1600.00 Neutral Sell 604 0.47

UNITED UTILITIES GROUP 597.50 543.50 637.00 Neutral Neutral 604 0.60


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uk trading & value indicator 20111227

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Transcript of uk trading & value indicator 20111227