uk trading & value indicator 20120126

8/3/2019 uk trading & value indicator 20120126

1/25

26 January 2012

UK Trading &Value

Indicator


2/25

Intellisys www.intellisys.uk.com 26 January 2012

Page 2 of 25 Intellisys 26 January 2012

Contents

Market Pictures - Indices ......................................................................... 5FTSE 100 ................................................................................................ 5FTSE 250 ................................................................................................ 6FTSE All Share Index ................................................................................ 7FTSE AIM All Share .................................................................................. 8

Market Pictures Interest Rates ............................................................ 10UK Bank Lending Rates ........................................................................... 10Eurozone Lending Rates .......................................................................... 11US Federal Funds Rate ........................................................................... 12

Market Pictures Exchange Rates ......................................................... 13Market Pictures - Oil............................................................................... 15Aerospace & Defence ............................................. Over Valued 16Automobiles & Parts .............................................. Over Valued 16Banks ............................................................. Over Valued 16Beverages ........................................................ Over Valued 16Chemicals ........................................................ Over Valued 16Construction & Building Materials .............................. Over Valued 17Electronics & Electrical Equipment ............................. Under Valued 17Engineering & Machinery ........................................ Over Valued 17Food & Drug Stores ............................................... Under Valued 18Food Producers & Processors ................................... Over Valued 18General Retail ..................................................... Over Valued 18Health .............................................................. Over Valued 18Household Goods & Textiles .................................... Under Valued 18Information Technology & Hardware .......................... Over Valued 19Insurance ........................................................ Over Valued 19Leisure & Hotels .................................................. Under Valued 19Life Assurance .................................................. Over Valued 19Media & Entertainment .......................................... Over Valued 20Mining .............................................................. Under Valued 20Oil & Gas ........................................................... Under Valued 20Personal Care & Household Products .......................... Over Valued 20Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology .............................. Under Valued 21Software & Computer Services ................................. Under Valued 21Speciality & Other Finance

......................................

Over Valued21

Support Services .................................................. Under Valued 22Telecommunication Services .................................... Under Valued 22Transport ........................................................ Over Valued 23Utilities ............................................................. Under Valued 23DISCLAIMER ............................................................................................. 24


3/25



IntroductionThe overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guidethat will identify those shares that merit their investment attention in an

increasingly time critical and information noisy trading environment.

The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box,

typically, before the official open of the London Stock Markets.

Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of aninvestment are the two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.

TimingIntellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key

factors that influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters,these have been established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cutthrough the daily investment noise.

Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimentalfactors as well as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters(analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment meetings.

From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage,the trading indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate inidentifying good trading points as well as some 74% accurate for overall trend

correlation.

The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40stocks analysed.

Individual Stock Recommendation & Trend Accuracy Scores

Source: Intellisys

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

Best Buy/Sell Trend


4/25



Value

A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Prices.On a daily basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from notonly the Profit & Loss Account but also the Balance Sheet and Cashflow

Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation models.

Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his

investment research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment

valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.

The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the

Target as realistically valid as possible.

Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Price delivery is not only a

function of market levels but a management teams ability to establish andmaintain a value generating operating environment set against a constantlychanging global background.

The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to startwith a modest range of some 6 10 valuation measures and remove those that

are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis approach is the opposite we useas many valuation methodologies as possible.

Further, Intellisys recognises that some target prices may appear strange orextreme. However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them

as starting points to challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion ofa stock.

In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist

investors from falling in love with a stock or becoming mesmerised bymanagement cults.

ConclusionNo investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading andinvestment systems active position monitoring is critical for maximisedinvestment performance.

Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunctionwith, and not separate from subscribers existing investment systems as well asdiscussing investment options with their financial advisers.

Philip Morrish ([email protected])

RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target Prices

Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in thispublication is provided solely to enable you to make your own investmentdecisions.If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you

should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not besuitable for everyone.The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as riseand you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominatedin a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the valueof stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance.


5/25



Market Pictures - Indices

FTSE 100

Index PE

3,512.1

3,512.1

4,944.4

5,723.0

6,091.3

6,091.3

6,732.4

2000 4000 6000 8000

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100

7.0

7.0

7.9

10.3

14.1

18.2

18.2

5 10 15 20

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100 PE

% change % change

1M 3.8; 3M 3.6; 12M -3.3 1M 3.8; 3M 1.1; 12M -15.3

Yield RSI

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.4

3.9

6.0

6.2

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100 DY

11.1

59.0

74.8

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE 100 RSI

% change

1M -5.8; 3M -0.3; 12M 14.4


6/25




FTSE 250

Index PE

5,491.5

5,769.8

9,425.9

10,748.4

12,167.8

12,167.8

12,220.2

500 5500 10500 15500

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250

7.1

7.1

7.1

16.3

19.3

27.8

27.8

5 10 15 20 25 30

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250 PE

% change % change

1M 7.7; 3M 3.1; 12M -6.6 1M 8.2; 3M 6.6; 12M -13.0

Yield RSI

1.9

2.2

2.2

2.9

3.3

5.1

5.7

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250 DY

7.9

69.4

83.4

0 20 40 60 80 100

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE 250 RSI

% change

1M -9.2; 3M -0.4; 12M 28.8


7/25




FTSE All Share Index

Index PE

1,781.6

1,781.6

2,557.8

2,950.0

3,160.9

3,160.9

3,479.0

500 1500 2500 3500 4500

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE

7.4

7.4

8.5

11.0

14.6

19.5

19.5

5 10 15 20 25

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE PE

% change % change

1M 4.4; 3M 3.5; 12M -3.9 1M 4.4; 3M 1.7; 12M -15.3

Yield RSI

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.3

3.8

5.8

6.1

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE DY

10.4

61.2

74.8

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE RSI

% change

1M -6.2; 3M -0.3; 12M 16.0


8/25




FTSE AIM All Share

Index PE

373.8

373.8

657.8

758.1

968.3

968.3

1,236.6

200 700 1200 1700

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL- SHARE

-203,906.0

-203,906.0

-203,906.0

101.3

211.5

1,240.8

1,439.5

-250000 -200000 -150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE PE

% change % change

1M 10.5; 3M 6.0; 12M -19.8 1M 8.5; 3M 33.4; 12M -155.2

Yield RSI

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.8

2.1

2.1

0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE DY

6.9

81.0

91.9

0 50 100

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE RSI

% change

1M -12.3; 3M -11.1; 12M 18.5


9/25




S&P 500

Index PE

676.5

676.5

1,099.2

1,326.1

1,363.6

1,363.6

1,565.2

400 900 1400 1900

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE

13.4

13.4

13.4

14.9

18.4

146.3

146.3

10 60 110 160

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE PE

% change % change

1M 4.8; 3M 7.9; 12M 2.7 1M 4.2; 3M 1.8; 12M -16.7

Yield RSI

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.2

2.4

3.2

3.4

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE DY

11.2

79.9

79.9

0 20 40 60 80 100

Lo

Last Close

Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE RSI

% change

1M -3.6; 3M -1.8; 12M 17.3


10/25



Market Pictures Interest Rates

UK Bank Lending Rates

UK

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

1.50

5.75

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

UK CLEARING BANKS BASE RATE

% change

1M 0.0; 3M 0.0; 12M 0.0

UK Lending PE

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

66.7

17.4

10 60 110 160 210

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

UK CLEARING BANKS BASE RATE PE


11/25




Eurozone Lending Rates

Eurozone

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

2.25

3.00

5.25

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

EUROZONE MARGINAL LENDING RATE

% change

1M 0.0; 3M -22.2; 12M 0.0

Eurozone Lending PE

57.1

57.1

57.1

57.1

44.4

33.3

19.0

10 20 30 40 50 60

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

EUROZONE MARGINAL LENDING RATE - PE


12/25




US Federal Funds Rate

US

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.09

0.18

0.25

5.41

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

% change

1M 12.5; 3M 28.6; 12M -47.1

US Lending PE

2,500.0

2,500.0

2,500.0

1,111.1

555.6

400.0

18.5

10 510 1010 1510 2010 2510 3010

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE - PE


13/25



Market Pictures Exchange Rates

US$/

1.37

1.38

1.53

1.56

1.67

1.70

2.11

1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US$/

% change

1M -0.4; 3M -2.4; 12M -1.5

/

1.02

1.06

1.11

1.20

1.21

1.24

1.52

1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

EURO/

% change

1M 0.2; 3M 4.6; 12M 3.8


14/25



Market Pictures Exchange Rates

US$/

1.19

1.19

1.27

1.31

1.48

1.51

1.60

0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US$/EURO

% change

1M 0.5; 3M -5.7; 12M -4.2

/

117.1

117.1

117.1

121.9

139.4

162.5

250.1

100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

YEN/

% change

1M -0.2; 3M 0.7; 12M -6.5


15/25



Market Pictures - Oil

Brent Monthly FOB US$/bbl

34.6

39.1

96.3

109.8

126.6

126.6

145.6

0 50 100 150 200

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

Oil (Brent) Monthly FOB U$/bbl

% change

1M 0.97; 3M -2.97; 12M 14.57


Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in thispublication is provided solely to enable you to make your own investmentdecisions.

If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you

should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not besuitable for everyone.

The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as riseand you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominatedin a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the valueof stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance.


16/25



Aerospace & Defence Over Valued

Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BAE SYSTEMS 314.60 248.10 356.50 Neutral Strong Buy 593 0.63

CHEMRING GROUP 380.90 368.80 736.50 Neutral Buy 457 0.53

COBHAM 186.80 165.90 236.50 Neutral Buy 231 0.94

MEGGITT 369.40 305.00 397.60 Neutral Sell 323 1.34

ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS 739.00 552.19 769.00 Neutral Sell 583 1.09

SMITHS GROUP 978.00 869.50 1429.00 Neutral Neutral 978 0.71

ULTRA ELECTRONICS HDG. 1509.00 1305.00 1830.00 Neutral Sell 1183 0.59

UMECO 356.00 243.50 512.50 Neutral Neutral 359 0.80

Automobiles & Parts Over Valued


GKN 210.00 157.00 245.00 Neutral Sell 165 1.93

INCHCAPE 341.00 268.60 425.40 Neutral Sell 292 1.40

LOOKERS 50.25 47.00 72.75 Neutral Buy 65 1.34

PENDRAGON 9.50 6.80 19.71 Sell Neutral 9 1.08

Banks Over Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BARCLAYS 217.25 138.85 333.55 Neutral Sell 86 1.81

HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50) 537.00 463.50 730.90 Neutral Strong Buy 877 1.12

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP 30.93 21.84 69.30 Sell Strong Buy 150 1.72

ROYAL BANK OF SCTL.GP. 26.75 17.34 49.00 Sell Sell -24 1.23

STANDARD CHARTERED 1553.00 1169.50 1712.50 Neutral Sell 1391 1.69

Beverages Over Valued


BARR (AG) 1223.00 1031.00 1395.00 Neutral Neutral 1238 0.42

DIAGEO 1418.00 1112.00 1428.00 Neutral Sell 1280 0.55

SABMILLER 2392.00 1979.00 2392.00 Neutral Buy 2785 0.97

Chemicals Over Valued


CRODA INTERNATIONAL 1892.00 1456.00 2081.00 Neutral Sell 1613 1.06

ELEMENTIS 148.10 107.50 187.40 Neutral Neutral 152 1.06

JOHNSON MATTHEY 2010.00 1523.00 2119.00 Neutral Sell 1742 1.43

VICTREX 1234.00 1025.00 1590.00 Neutral Sell 1148 1.20

YULE CATTO 198.00 148.00 253.00 Neutral Strong Buy 302 1.25

ZOTEFOAMS 130.00 109.00 158.00 Neutral Strong Buy 199 1.01


17/25



Construction & Building Materials Over Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BALFOUR BEATTY 280.30 214.60 357.30 Neutral Neutral 272 0.85

BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS 110.20 67.50 119.00 Neutral Sell 58 1.39

BELLWAY 725.50 540.50 776.50 Neutral Sell 642 1.00

BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE) 1247.00 884.50 1360.00 Neutral Neutral 1292 0.69

BOVIS HOMES GROUP 446.10 326.50 499.60 Neutral Sell 193 1.07

CARILLION 317.80 281.00 403.20 Neutral Buy 446 1.10

CLARKE (T) 39.50 35.50 105.00 Neutral Strong Buy 189 0.84COSTAIN GROUP 197.50 180.00 265.00 Neutral Strong Buy 742 0.58

GALLIFORD TRY 473.50 309.00 530.00 Neutral Buy 521 1.02

KELLER 350.00 239.25 675.00 Neutral Neutral 355 1.26

KIER GROUP 1345.00 1097.00 1458.00 Neutral Strong Buy 2991 1.05

LOW & BONAR 50.50 38.00 76.75 Neutral Buy 56 1.04

MARSHALLS 95.50 83.25 124.50 Neutral Sell 61 1.35

MORGAN SINDALL GROUP 645.50 510.00 720.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1334 0.88

PERSIMMON 515.00 374.00 524.50 Neutral Buy 614 1.05

REDROW 122.20 103.50 136.20 Neutral Sell 81 0.95

SIG 100.50 76.95 153.50 Neutral Sell 3 1.56

TAYLOR WIMPEY 41.80 28.71 43.78 Sell Sell 12 1.48

TRAVIS PERKINS 874.00 715.00 1090.00 Neutral Buy 1021 1.85

WOLSELEY 2185.00 1404.00 2261.00 Neutral Sell 1643 1.41

Electronics & Electrical Equipment Under Valued


DIALIGHT 782.50 549.00 847.00 Neutral Sell 414 0.73

DOMINO PRINTING SCIENCES 570.00 434.30 705.00 Neutral Neutral 588 1.15

E2V TECHNOLOGIES 120.50 86.75 146.00 Sell Buy 144 1.30

INVENSYS 200.50 180.90 357.80 Neutral Strong Buy 348 1.51

LAIRD 165.60 127.90 207.00 Neutral Neutral 163 2.20

OXFORD INSTRUMENTS 910.00 600.50 1010.00 Neutral Sell 739 0.97

RENISHAW 1283.00 800.00 1886.00 Neutral Buy 1736 1.22

SPECTRIS 1518.00 1039.00 1679.00 Neutral Sell 1112 1.37

BIOME TECHNOLOGIES 0.14 0.14 0.34 Buy Strong Buy 0 0.65

TT ELECTRONICS 160.00 120.50 208.00 Neutral Buy 221 1.55

XAAR 247.50 207.50 295.00 Neutral Sell 117 1.13

Engineering & Machinery Over Valued


AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP 80.25 62.50 138.00 Neutral Strong Buy 293 1.31

BODYCOTE 291.20 225.60 397.70 Neutral Buy 346 1.56

CASTINGS 270.50 252.50 358.00 Neutral Strong Buy 491 0.96

COOKSON GROUP 569.00 395.80 724.50 Neutral Buy 754 2.26

FENNER 452.60 280.00 462.00 Neutral Sell 276 1.39

HALMA 344.00 306.30 429.60 Neutral Neutral 346 0.74

HILL & SMITH 297.00 235.00 393.50 Neutral Strong Buy 564 1.36

IMI 850.00 636.50 1119.00 Neutral Buy 1274 1.40

METALRAX GROUP 7.75 7.37 12.00 Neutral Neutral 9 0.85

MORGAN C RUCIBLE 303.30 224.00 357.10 Neutral Neutral 329 1.73

ROTORK 1880.00 1501.00 1979.00 Neutral Sell 1644 1.01

SENIOR 182.60 132.60 190.60 Neutral Neutral 178 1.75

SEVERFIELD-ROWEN 195.75 150.00 295.75 Neutral Sell 171 1.03

SPIRAX-SARCO 1938.00 1649.00 2063.00 Neutral Neutral 2109 0.84

VITEC GROUP 555.00 488.00 661.75 Neutral Buy 714 1.51

WEIR GROUP 1964.00 1375.00 2218.00 Neutral Sell 762 1.41


18/25



Food & Drug Stores Under Valued


GREGGS 510.00 445.00 550.50 Neutral Buy 567 0.54

MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS. 295.70 264.00 328.00 Neutral Buy 336 0.50

SAINSBURY (J) 289.70 263.50 391.20 Neutral Strong Buy 504 0.65

TESCO 322.85 312.35 420.05 Neutral Buy 394 0.81

THORNTONS 14.00 9.50 100.75 Neutral Buy 16 0.80

Food Producers & Processors Over Valued


ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS 1160.00 940.00 1160.00 Neutral Sell 544 0.59

CRANSWICK 749.50 588.50 862.00 Neutral Neutral 720 0.58

DAIRY CREST 318.40 315.00 409.70 Neutral Buy 350 0.96

DEVRO 261.00 223.50 296.90 Neutral Strong Buy 413 0.31

PREMIER FOODS 9.50 3.29 35.12 Sell Sell -3 1.43

ROBERT WISEMAN DAIRIES 388.50 233.25 388.50 Neutral Buy 511 0.38

TATE & LYLE 676.00 520.00 720.50 Neutral Sell 394 0.65

UNILEVER (UK) 2050.00 1793.00 2189.00 Neutral Sell 1817 0.63

General Retail Over Valued


ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS 21.00 16.00 25.25 Neutral Buy 23 0.73

BROWN (N) GROUP 229.00 227.00 304.50 Neutral Sell 199 0.50

BURBERRY GROUP 1314.00 1074.00 1600.00 Neutral Sell 444 1.34

CARPETRIGHT 628.00 375.00 770.50 Sell Sell 155 0.98

CLINTON CARDS 10.63 7.50 27.00 Sell Sell 7 0.64

DIXONS RETAIL 14.69 9.36 22.25 Sell Strong Buy 23 1.40

FINDEL 3.50 2.20 10.55 Neutral Sell 1 0.96

FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP 42.25 36.00 134.00 Neutral Strong Buy 85 0.91

GAME GROUP 6.00 3.26 73.25 Neutral Strong Buy 137 0.91

HALFORDS GROUP 318.50 269.50 416.00 Neutral Neutral 326 0.62

JJB SPORTS 11.00 5.20 52.70 Sell Strong Buy 1092 0.86

JD SPORTS FASHION 705.00 570.00 1030.00 Neutral Buy 1012 0.46KESA ELECTRICALS 66.40 60.20 151.40 Neutral Strong Buy 235 1.27

KINGFISHER 258.40 217.00 287.10 Neutral Sell 235 0.98

MARKS & SPENCER GROUP 329.40 301.80 402.20 Neutral Sell 306 0.73

MOSS BROTHERS GROUP 34.75 23.75 40.00 Neutral Sell 18 1.02

MOTHERCARE 201.00 127.30 538.00 Neutral Buy 279 0.51

NEXT 2589.00 1868.00 2810.00 Neutral Sell 1778 0.81

TED BAKER 742.75 572.50 830.00 Neutral Sell 382 0.52

TOPPS TILES 30.50 21.50 84.50 Neutral Sell 22 1.30

Health Over Valued


CONSORT MEDICAL 523.00 498.00 590.00 Neutral Sell 486 0.39CORIN GROUP 53.00 36.50 59.00 Neutral Sell 47 0.70

SMITH & NEPHEW 605.50 521.00 742.00 Neutral Neutral 611 0.39

Household Goods & Textiles Under Valued


HARVARD INTL. 37.25 21.75 40.00 Neutral Sell 31 0.47

GAMES WORKSHOP 525.00 347.50 547.50 Neutral Sell 471 0.34

HEADLAM GROUP 274.38 233.25 338.50 Neutral Buy 343 0.91

HORNBY 125.00 105.00 145.00 Neutral Buy 143 0.70


19/25



Information Technology & Hardware Over Valued


ARM HOLDINGS 597.50 464.00 651.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1474 0.77

CSR 228.50 154.10 447.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6083 1.13

FILTRONIC 23.00 14.50 41.50 Sell Sell -231 0.59

IMAGINATION TEC HNOLOGIES 566.50 296.90 575.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1286 0.96

PSION 45.50 43.88 102.75 Neutral Strong Buy 2782 1.19

SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS 121.00 105.80 160.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1353 1.01

WOLFSON MIC ROELECTRONIC S 157.75 96.00 312.00 Neutral Sell 24 1.02

Insurance Over Valued


ADMIRAL GROUP 903.00 787.00 1754.00 Neutral Sell 366 0.50

AMLIN 355.20 270.60 427.00 Neutral Strong Buy 2417 0.45

BEAZLEY 141.80 109.60 141.80 Neutral Strong Buy 1261 0.51

CATLIN GROUP 416.50 334.00 421.40 Neutral Sell 68 0.32

HISCOX 390.40 340.50 424.70 Neutral Strong Buy 2395 0.49

JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON 690.00 576.00 764.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1899 0.32

RSA INSURANCE GROUP 107.60 99.60 143.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1014 0.45

NOVAE GROUP 340.00 285.00 410.00 Neutral Strong Buy 2305 0.49

Leisure & Hotels Under Valued


ARENA LEISURE 43.75 26.25 44.00 Neutral Sell 18 0.76

CARNIVAL 1943.00 1742.00 3000.00 Neutral Strong Buy 3867 1.13

ENTERPRISE INNS 33.25 26.50 108.00 Neutral Strong Buy 103 1.69

TUI TRAVEL 190.70 136.70 271.90 Neutral Strong Buy 601 0.95

FULLER SMITH 'A' 700.00 590.00 752.00 Neutral Neutral 766 0.45

GREENE KING 507.00 410.00 520.50 Neutral Strong Buy 778 0.87

LADBROKES 138.70 114.00 155.30 Neutral Strong Buy 248 0.99

ICTL.HTLS.GP. 1325.00 955.00 1435.00 Neutral Sell 895 1.29

MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS. 430.00 371.20 600.50 Neutral Buy 541 1.39

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS 258.60 215.60 357.00 Neutral Sell 109 1.02BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM. 154.00 100.60 204.00 Neutral Sell 141 1.29

PUNCH TAVERNS 11.50 9.14 15.70 Neutral Sell -171 1.28

RANK GROUP 127.60 109.50 153.70 Neutral Strong Buy 204 0.97

RESTAURANT GROUP 295.00 254.90 335.00 Neutral Buy 357 0.88

WETHERSPOON (JD) 413.80 380.50 468.30 Neutral Strong Buy 744 0.75

WHITBREAD 1680.00 1409.00 1863.00 Neutral Buy 1921 1.04

WILLIAM HILL 225.20 176.80 244.10 Neutral Buy 320 0.93

MARSTON'S 98.00 84.60 112.00 Neutral Strong Buy 182 1.24

Life Assurance Over Valued


AVIVA 354.40 275.30 477.90 Neutral Strong Buy 435 1.22CHESNARA 185.75 161.75 264.00 Neutral Neutral 177 0.60

LEGAL & GENERAL 117.20 89.80 123.80 Neutral Buy 83 1.65

OLD MUTUAL 144.30 98.05 148.70 Neutral Sell 160 1.62

PRUDENTIAL 704.50 509.00 777.00 Neutral Sell 316 1.72

ST.JAMES'S PLACE 348.40 294.00 376.00 Neutral Strong Buy 121 0.79


20/25



Media & Entertainment Over Valued


AEGIS GROUP 154.90 116.17 159.08 Neutral Sell 87 1.30

BLOOMSBURY PBL. 107.50 91.25 138.00 Neutral Buy 120 0.48

BRITISH SKY BCAST.GROUP 672.50 618.50 850.00 Neutral Neutral 642 0.64

CENTAUR MEDIA 35.75 32.50 73.00 Neutral Sell -56 1.00

DAILY MAIL 'A' 438.30 343.40 594.50 Neutral Buy 549 1.08

EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR 675.00 522.50 736.00 Neutral Sell 631 1.04

INFORMA 388.70 313.90 461.10 Neutral Sell 308 1.50ITE GROUP 211.90 157.70 258.20 Neutral Sell 146 1.39

ITV 75.20 51.65 93.45 Neutral Neutral 76 1.49

JOHNSTON PRESS 6.25 4.11 12.75 Neutral Strong Buy 58 1.45

PEARSON 1180.00 1013.00 1255.00 Neutral Sell 1037 0.70

PHOTO-ME INTL. 54.88 39.50 67.00 Neutral Strong Buy 84 0.86

PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON 248.00 132.75 292.00 Neutral Sell 143 0.37

THOMSON REUTERS 28.90 26.21 41.49 Neutral Sell 25 0.52

STV GROUP 91.00 76.25 168.00 Neutral Buy 107 0.77

ST.IVES 79.25 68.50 108.50 Neutral Strong Buy 213 1.31

TRINITY MIRROR 47.00 37.50 89.50 Neutral Strong Buy 451 1.58

UBM 538.00 416.00 725.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1595 1.28

WILMINGTON GROUP 79.50 79.50 183.00 Buy Buy 106 0.86

WPP 749.00 578.00 846.50 Neutral Neutral 795 1.27

YELL GROUP 5.90 3.35 11.75 Neutral Strong Buy 43 1.32

Mining Under Valued


ANGLO AMERICAN 2654.50 2138.50 3437.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6565 1.74

ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP 280.70 237.90 369.25 Neutral Buy 375 0.92

ANTOFAGASTA 1356.00 900.50 1524.00 Neutral Sell 1103 1.38

BHP BILLITON 2129.00 1667.00 2631.50 Neutral Strong Buy 4719 1.40

LONMIN 1043.00 941.00 1880.00 Neutral Sell 854 1.90

RANDGOLD RESOURCES 6825.00 4425.00 7555.00 Neutral Sell 1899 0.30

RIO TINTO 3711.50 2712.50 4712.00 Neutral Buy 5405 1.41

UK COAL 33.50 28.50 49.50 Neutral Sell -74 1.05

VEDANTA RESOURCES 928.00 2518.00 Neutral Strong Buy 5448 2.05

XSTRATA 1079.00 764.00 1550.00 Neutral Buy 1210 1.76

Oil & Gas Under Valued


BG GROUP 1458.50 1144.00 1564.50 Neutral Buy 1889 0.70

BP 474.55 363.20 497.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1255 1.06

CAIRN ENERGY 282.30 257.80 469.70 Neutral Buy 335 1.34

FORTUNE OIL 11.25 9.00 14.75 Neutral Strong Buy 23 0.87

HUNTING 792.50 530.00 843.00 Neutral Buy 925 1.31

JKX OIL & GAS 150.50 120.50 335.10 Neutral Strong Buy 361 1.35

MELROSE RESOURC ES 120.00 95.25 297.00 Neutral Strong Buy 629 1.12

PREMIER OIL 432.50 310.00 535.00 Neutral Buy 520 1.34

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL A(LON) 2278.00 1883.50 2402.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6343 0.94

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B 2356.00 1890.50 2489.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6405 0.95

SOCO INTERNATIONAL 297.50 278.00 400.00 Neutral Sell 196 0.50

TULLOW OIL 1388.00 945.50 1493.00 Neutral Sell 457 1.07

WOOD GROUP (JOHN) 656.00 469.90 715.75 Neutral Buy 761 1.34

Personal Care & Household Products Over Valued


MCBRIDE 115.25 108.75 151.06 Neutral Sell 90 0.85

PZ CUSSONS 285.00 285.00 387.90 Neutral Buy 341 0.80

RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP 3365.00 3015.00 3578.00 Neutral Sell 3067 0.32


21/25



Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Under Valued


ARK THERAPEUTICS GP. 3.53 3.13 5.48 Buy Strong Buy 10 0.92

ASTRAZENECA 3035.00 2543.50 3194.00 Neutral Strong Buy 10844 0.46

BTG 323.00 210.10 331.30 Neutral Sell 124 0.72

DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS 520.00 433.00 532.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1026 0.32

GLAXOSMITHKLINE 1426.00 1127.50 1497.00 Neutral Neutral 1495 0.49

OXFORD BIOMEDICA 3.15 2.91 7.20 Buy Sell -1 0.60

PHYTOPHARM 9.38 6.40 9.75 Neutral Sell -2 0.89SHIRE 2113.00 1634.00 2243.00 Neutral Sell 1424 0.64

SKYEPHARMA 32.00 31.50 66.13 Neutral Strong Buy 302 0.71

VERNALIS 19.75 18.75 50.00 Neutral Sell -15 0.81

Software & Computer Services Under Valued


TIMEWEAVE 23.00 21.50 27.00 Neutral Strong Buy 45 0.73

ANITE 97.00 57.75 98.75 Neutral Sell 57 0.82

AVEVA GROUP 1585.00 1298.00 1799.00 Neutral Sell 911 1.44

COMPUTACENTER 390.00 324.70 490.00 Neutral Strong Buy 881 1.07

KOFAX 262.00 225.00 535.00 Neutral Neutral 263 1.05

INNOVATION GROUP 20.00 15.25 23.00 Neutral Sell 17 0.91LOGICA 78.75 58.95 147.20 Neutral Strong Buy 179 1.33

MIC RO FOC US INTL. 449.60 242.90 455.00 Neutral Sell 413 0.71

MISYS 325.50 214.90 420.20 Sell Buy 370 1.29

PHOENIX IT GROUP 188.63 154.75 290.00 Neutral Strong Buy 441 0.85

RM 67.00 41.50 175.00 Neutral Strong Buy 359 0.39

FIDESSA GROUP 1671.00 1444.00 2109.00 Neutral Neutral 1603 0.79

SAGE GROUP 305.20 231.70 310.10 Neutral Neutral 300 0.65

Speciality & Other Finance Over Valued


ABERDEEN ASSET MAN. 236.40 167.80 240.80 Neutral Sell 97 1.07

BREWIN DOLPHIN 145.20 113.70 185.40 Neutral Neutral 139 0.70CAMELLIA 9649.00 8800.00 10950.00 Neutral Strong Buy 17102 0.87

CHARLES STANLEY GROUP 265.00 240.00 350.00 Neutral Neutral 287 0.94

CHARLES TAYLOR CNSL. 136.75 115.63 165.00 Neutral Strong Buy 207 0.70

CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP 664.50 590.00 875.00 Neutral Sell 339 0.80

F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT 65.35 56.05 91.00 Neutral Buy 84 0.91

HELPHIRE GROUP 2.30 1.36 17.38 Sell Buy 3 0.64

HENDERSON GROUP 113.80 95.05 173.10 Neutral Sell 93 1.41

ICAP 332.70 311.60 559.00 Neutral Sell 309 1.08

INTERMEDIATE CAPITAL GP. 274.90 197.90 354.70 Neutral Neutral 262 1.62

INVESTEC 376.70 318.40 522.00 Neutral Sell 256 1.53

LONDON STOCK EX.GROUP 867.50 756.50 1076.00 Neutral Sell 732 1.15

MAN GROUP 118.00 104.50 311.00 Neutral Strong Buy 178 1.27

RATHBONE BROTHERS 1122.00 977.00 1257.00 Neutral Neutral 1182 0.73

SCHRODERS 1472.00 1183.00 1906.00 Neutral Neutral 1598 1.30

SCHRODERS NV 1211.00 970.00 1554.00 Neutral Buy 1598 1.29


22/25



Support Services Under Valued


ACAL 176.25 166.25 367.50 Neutral Strong Buy 331 0.93

AGGREKO 2079.00 1394.48 2131.00 Neutral Sell 1225 1.18

AMEC 1008.00 740.50 1251.00 Neutral Buy 1241 1.01

ASHTEAD GROUP 229.00 99.40 230.20 Neutral Sell 122 1.50

BABCOCK INTL. 740.00 542.00 758.00 Neutral Sell 677 0.56

BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS. 357.88 230.00 357.88 Neutral Strong Buy 1046 0.70

BUNZL 855.50 676.50 906.50 Neutral Buy 979 0.55UK MAIL GROUP 234.50 192.25 318.50 Neutral Strong Buy 528 0.28

CAPITA 644.50 611.50 786.50 Neutral Neutral 682 0.42

COMMUNISIS 29.00 23.75 37.00 Neutral Strong Buy 94 0.72

COMPASS GROUP 599.00 512.50 619.50 Neutral Buy 709 0.75

BERENDSEN 443.40 402.70 568.00 Neutral Strong Buy 684 1.03

DE LA RUE 968.00 667.00 968.00 Neutral Neutral 1022 #NA

DIGNITY 817.00 648.50 854.50 Neutral Buy 943 0.22

DIPLOMA 383.90 263.50 414.25 Neutral Sell 314 0.98

ELECTROCOMP. 215.90 182.20 294.90 Neutral Strong Buy 362 0.99

FILTRONA 386.10 280.00 404.50 Neutral Neutral 419 1.13

G4S 269.80 219.90 291.00 Neutral Buy 376 0.60

HAYS 73.55 58.85 130.00 Neutral Strong Buy 139 0.95

HOMESERVE 298.90 218.50 532.00 Neutral Strong Buy 458 0.67

INTERSERVE 299.40 239.75 341.25 Neutral Strong Buy 769 1.40

INTERTEK GROUP 2124.00 1737.00 2148.00 Neutral Sell 1584 0.86

JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP 25.63 25.25 36.00 Neutral Strong Buy 65 1.16

MANAGEMENT C NSL.GP. 30.50 27.75 45.50 Neutral Strong Buy 55 0.67

MENZIES (JOHN) 547.50 425.00 550.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1185 1.44

MICHAEL PAGE INTL. 397.60 323.00 567.00 Neutral Neutral 429 1.33

MITIE GROUP 270.50 195.90 271.00 Neutral Buy 391 0.60

MOUCHEL GROUP 8.90 4.75 154.75 Sell Sell -279 0.84

OFFICE2OFFICE 135.50 112.50 166.50 Neutral Strong Buy 274 0.36

PAYPOINT 585.00 327.25 585.00 Neutral Buy 719 0.76

PREMIER FARNELL 205.80 144.50 308.80 Neutral Strong Buy 344 1.18

REGUS 94.30 64.00 119.00 Neutral Sell 69 1.39

RENTOKIL INITIAL 74.55 58.20 104.40 Neutral Sell 49 1.29

REXAM 382.50 299.80 400.00 Neutral Buy 512 0.87

RICARDO 359.50 314.00 410.00 Neutral Buy 530 0.83

ROBERT WALTERS 197.50 158.25 336.00 Neutral Strong Buy 341 1.18

RPC GROUP 386.00 231.50 392.00 Neutral Buy 431 0.81

RPS GROUP 201.20 156.60 253.00 Neutral Buy 287 1.55

SERCO GROUP 512.50 458.00 618.50 Neutral Buy 652 0.57

SHANKS GROUP 98.10 90.80 130.90 Neutral Strong Buy 159 1.44

SPEEDY HIRE 25.25 18.50 34.00 Neutral Sell -7 1.27

TRIBAL GROUP 61.88 36.25 62.75 Neutral Sell -287 0.54

TRIFAST 43.00 36.25 52.88 Neutral Buy 61 0.86

VP 216.50 191.00 253.75 Neutral Strong Buy 567 0.89

WYG 48.50 48.38 1200.00 Neutral Sell -8312 0.77

WSP GROUP 243.25 160.00 385.00 Neutral Strong Buy 557 0.92

Telecommunication Services Under Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BT GROUP 207.40 161.00 208.80 Neutral Buy 255 0.92

CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS. 41.35 31.25 51.20 Neutral Strong Buy 135 0.65

INMARSAT 412.00 389.30 719.50 Neutral Sell 358 0.52

KCOM GROUP 68.45 57.50 84.00 Neutral Buy 82 1.27

TELECOM PLUS 662.50 440.00 802.00 Neutral Sell 465 0.06

VODAFONE GROUP 174.55 155.05 182.75 Neutral Neutral 186 0.65


23/25



Transport Over Valued


BBA AVIATION 191.00 156.00 240.80 Neutral Sell 169 1.40

BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS. 358.50 282.00 505.00 Neutral Strong Buy 660 0.90

CLARKSON 1148.00 1015.00 1355.00 Neutral Buy 1570 0.81

EASYJET 403.80 301.00 422.50 Neutral Sell 375 0.76

FIRST GROUP 304.70 301.80 380.40 Neutral Buy 429 1.10

FISHER(JAMES)& SONS 497.50 440.50 574.00 Neutral Sell 344 0.83

GO-AHEAD GROUP 1261.00 1190.00 1598.00 Neutral Buy 1789 0.97NATIONAL EXPRESS 216.60 201.60 270.20 Neutral Sell 186 1.30

NORTHGATE 213.60 190.90 346.70 Neutral Strong Buy 377 1.34

STAGECOACH GROUP 276.40 199.97 281.20 Neutral Sell 209 0.90

WINCANTON 78.00 56.00 150.00 Neutral Strong Buy 171 0.86

Utilities Under Valued


CENTRICA 288.50 278.80 345.80 Neutral Neutral 293 0.50

NATIONAL GRID 619.00 543.50 649.50 Neutral Buy 773 0.57

PENNON GROUP 689.00 584.50 737.50 Neutral Sell 615 0.63

SEVERN TRENT 1520.00 1368.00 1600.00 Neutral Sell 1331 0.47

UNITED UTILITIES GROUP 601.00 543.50 637.00 Neutral Neutral 607 0.60


24/25



DISCLAIMER

Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys (Intellisys) is the tradingname of Intelligent Analysis Limited.

Intelligent Analysis Limited is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possiblevalue of quoted company shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys

reports are designed to present an objective assessment of the possible value or relative valueof a company and/or an actuarial sector or stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensiveas possible range of valuation tools and proprietary systems to derive its outputs. The basedata for the models are derived from sources believed to be accurate but Intelligent AnalysisLimited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of the source data or itsmodels and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely upon theIntellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice

specific to their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under theFinancial Services and Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.

Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of thisreport. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to theaccuracy or completeness or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is

accepted to the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions ormisstatements, negligent or otherwise. In no event will Intelligent Analysis Limited, Intellisysor any of its officers, employees or agents be liable to any other party for any direct, indirect,special or other consequential damages arising from the use of this report.

The Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports are not directed to any person in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that persons nationality, residence or otherwise) thepublication or availability of the Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys information maybe prohibited. Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access the

Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports. Neither this document, nor any copy inwhatever form of media, may be taken or transmitted into the United States, Canada,Australia, Ireland, South Africa or Japan or into any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful todo so. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of relevant local

securities laws. Recipients of Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports outside theUK are not covered by the rules and regulations made for the protection of investors in the UK.

Any user distributing information taken from any Intelligent Analysis Limited or Intellisysreport and/or the Intellisys website, in whatever form, to any other person, agrees to attach a

copy of this Disclaimer and the Terms and Conditions of Use pages and obtain the agreementof such other person to comply with the terms set forth.

Intellisys' published reports are published for information purposes and only available tomarket counterparties, high net-worth and sophisticated individual investors.

No Intellisys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire anyshares or other financial instruments in any company or any interest therein, nor shall it form

the basis of any contract entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument inany company.

Intelligent Analysis Limited believes that the information within each and any of its reports tobe correct, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation orwarranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or completeness of

the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for the accuracy or sufficiency ofany of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise.


25/25


Intelligent Analysis Limited (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or aconnected person may have positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of thesecurities mentioned within a report, and may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell suchsecurities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by internal rules.

Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may goup or down and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatoryauthority and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.


Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication isprovided solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions.

If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contactyour financial adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.

The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you

may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency,fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the incomefrom them. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

uk trading & value indicator 20120126

Documents

Transcript of uk trading & value indicator 20120126