uk trading & value indicator 20120111

8/3/2019 uk trading & value indicator 20120111

1/25

11 January 2012

UK Trading &Value

Indicator


2/25

Intellisys www.intellisys.uk.com 11 January 2012

Page 2 of 25 Intellisys 11 January 2012

Contents

Market Pictures - Indices ......................................................................... 5FTSE 100 ................................................................................................ 5FTSE 250 ................................................................................................ 6FTSE All Share Index ................................................................................ 7

FTSE AIM All Share .................................................................................. 8

Market Pictures Interest Rates ............................................................ 10

UK Bank Lending Rates ........................................................................... 10Eurozone Lending Rates .......................................................................... 11US Federal Funds Rate ........................................................................... 12

Market Pictures Exchange Rates ......................................................... 13Market Pictures - Oil............................................................................... 15Aerospace & Defence ............................................... Over Valued 16Automobiles & Parts ................................................ Over Valued 16Banks ............................................................... Over Valued 16Beverages .......................................................... Over Valued 16Chemicals .......................................................... Over Valued 16Construction & Building Materials ................................ Over Valued 17Electronics & Electrical Equipment ............................... Under Valued 17Engineering & Machinery .......................................... Over Valued 17Food & Drug Stores ................................................. Under Valued 18Food Producers & Processors ..................................... Over Valued 18General Retail ....................................................... Over Valued 18Health ................................................................ Over Valued 18Household Goods & Textiles ...................................... Under Valued 18Information Technology & Hardware ............................ Over Valued 19Insurance .......................................................... Over Valued 19Leisure & Hotels .................................................... Under Valued 19Life Assurance .................................................... Over Valued 19Media & Entertainment ............................................ Over Valued 20Mining ................................................................ Under Valued 20Oil & Gas ............................................................. Under Valued 20Personal Care & Household Products ............................ Over Valued 20Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology ................................ Under Valued 21Software & Computer Services ................................... Over Valued 21Speciality & Other Finance ........................................ Over Valued 21Support Services .................................................... Under Valued 22Telecommunication Services ...................................... Under Valued 22Transport .......................................................... Under Valued 23Utilities ............................................................. Under Valued 23DISCLAIMER ............................................................................................. 24


3/25



IntroductionThe overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guidethat will identify those shares that merit their investment attention in anincreasingly time critical and information noisy trading environment.

The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box,typically, before the official open of the London Stock Markets.

Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an

investment are the two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.

Timing

Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the keyfactors that influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters,these have been established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cutthrough the daily investment noise.

Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental

factors as well as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters(analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment meetings.

From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage,the trading indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate inidentifying good trading points as well as some 74% accurate for overall trendcorrelation.

The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40

stocks analysed.

Individual Stock Recommendation & Trend Accuracy Scores

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

Best Buy/Sell Trend

Source: Intellisys


4/25



ValueA similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Prices.

On a daily basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from notonly the Profit & Loss Account but also the Balance Sheet and CashflowStatement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation models.

Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to hisinvestment research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investmentvaluation techniques lend themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.

The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make theTarget as realistically valid as possible.

Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Price delivery is not only afunction of market levels but a management teams ability to establish andmaintain a value generating operating environment set against a constantlychanging global background.

The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to startwith a modest range of some 6 10 valuation measures and remove those that

are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis approach is the opposite we useas many valuation methodologies as possible.

Further, Intellisys recognises that some target prices may appear strange or

extreme. However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use themas starting points to challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion ofa stock.

In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assistinvestors from falling in love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by

management cults.

ConclusionNo investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading andinvestment systems active position monitoring is critical for maximisedinvestment performance.

Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction

with, and not separate from subscribers existing investment systems as well asdiscussing investment options with their financial advisers.

Philip Morrish ([email protected])

RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target Prices

Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in thispublication is provided solely to enable you to make your own investmentdecisions.

If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, youshould contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not besuitable for everyone.The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise

and you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominatedin a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the valueof stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is not

necessarily a guide to future performance.


5/25



Market Pictures - Indices

FTSE 100

Index PE

3,512.1

3,512.1

4,944.4

5,696.7

6,091.3

6,091.3

6,732.4

2000 4000 6000 8000

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100

7.0

7.0

7.9

10.3

14.1

18.2

18.2

5 10 15 20

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100 PE

% change % change

1M 3.0; 3M 5.5; 12M -4.4 1M 4.2; 3M 20.2; 12M -16.1

Yield RSI

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.5

3.9

6.0

6.2

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100 DY

11.1

66.2

74.8

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE 100 RSI

% change

1M -3.6; 3M -2.5; 12M 18.2


6/25




FTSE 250

Index PE

5,491.5

5,769.8

9,425.9

10,347.7

12,167.8

12,167.8

12,220.2

500 5500 10500 15500

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250

7.1

7.1

7.1

15.7

19.5

27.8

27.8

5 10 15 20 25 30

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250 PE

% change % change

1M 2.1; 3M 2.0; 12M -10.6 1M 1.2; 3M 5.6; 12M -18.2

Yield RSI

1.9

2.2

2.2

3.0

3.3

5.1

5.7

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250 DY

7.9

65.1

72.5

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE 250 RSI

% change

1M -1.6; 3M 3.8; 12M 37.6


7/25




FTSE All Share Index

Index PE

1,781.6

1,781.6

2,557.8

2,921.9

3,160.9

3,160.9

3,479.0

500 1500 2500 3500 4500

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE

7.4

7.4

8.5

10.8

14.6

19.5

19.5

5 10 15 20 25

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE PE

% change % change

1M 2.9; 3M 5.0; 12M -5.4 1M 3.9; 3M 18.5; 12M -16.7

Yield RSI

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.5

3.8

5.8

6.1

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE DY

10.4

66.3

74.8

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE RSI

% change

1M -3.1; 3M -1.4; 12M 20.6


8/25




FTSE AIM All Share

Index PE

373.8

373.8

657.8

730.0

968.3

968.3

1,236.6

200 700 1200 1700

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE

-203,906.0

-203,906.0

-203,906.0

97.1

211.5

1,240.8

1,439.5

-250000 -200000 -150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE PE

% change % change

1M 4.2; 3M 3.8; 12M -22.2 1M -18.1; 3M 26.3; 12M -168.6

Yield RSI

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.8

2.1

2.1

0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE DY

6.9

85.8

85.8

0 50 100

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE RSI

% change

1M -4.1; 3M -6.7; 12M 27.3


9/25




S&P 500

Index PE

676.5

676.5

1,099.2

1,292.1

1,363.6

1,363.6

1,565.2

400 900 1400 1900

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE

13.4

13.4

13.4

14.7

18.4

146.3

146.3

10 60 110 160

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE PE

% change % change

1M 2.9; 3M 8.1; 12M 1.8 1M 1.5; 3M 9.6; 12M -17.3

Yield RSI

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.2

2.4

3.2

3.4

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE DY

11.2

69.6

69.6

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE RSI

% change

1M -0.5; 3M -9.5; 12M 18.4


10/25



Market Pictures Interest Rates

UK Bank Lending Rates

UK

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

1.50

5.75

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

UK CLEARING BANKS BASE RATE

% change

1M 0.0; 3M 0.0; 12M 0.0

UK Lending PE

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

66.7

17.4

10 60 110 160 210

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

UK CLEARING BANKS BASE RATE PE


11/25




Eurozone Lending Rates

Eurozone

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

2.25

3.00

5.25

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

EUROZONE MARGINAL LENDING RATE

% change

1M -12.5; 3M -22.2; 12M 0.0

Eurozone Lending PE

57.1

57.1

57.1

57.1

44.4

33.3

19.0

10 20 30 40 50 60

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

EUROZONE MARGINAL LENDING RATE - PE


12/25




US Federal Funds Rate

US

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.08

0.19

0.25

5.41

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

% change

1M 14.3; 3M 14.3; 12M -52.9

US Lending PE

2,500.0

2,500.0

2,500.0

1,250.0

526.3

400.0

18.5

10 510 1010 1510 2010 2510 3010

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE - PE


13/25



Market Pictures Exchange Rates

US$/

1.37

1.37

1.53

1.55

1.67

1.70

2.11

1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US$/

% change

1M -0.9; 3M -1.2; 12M -0.5

/

1.02

1.06

1.11

1.21

1.21

1.24

1.53

1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

EURO/

% change

1M 3.7; 3M 5.6; 12M 0.7


14/25



Market Pictures Exchange Rates

US$/

1.19

1.19

1.27

1.28

1.48

1.51

1.60

0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US$/EURO

% change

1M -4.5; 3M -6.4; 12M -1.3

/

117.1

117.1

117.1

118.9

139.4

162.5

250.1

100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

YEN/

% change

1M -1.9; 3M -1.1; 12M -7.7


15/25



Market Pictures - Oil

Brent Monthly FOB US$/bbl

34.6

39.1

95.9

113.6

126.6

126.6

145.6

0 50 100 150 200

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

Oil (Brent) Monthly FOB U$/bbl

% change

1M 5.23; 3M 4.06; 12M 18.95

RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target PricesIntellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in thispublication is provided solely to enable you to make your own investment

decisions.

If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, youshould contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be

suitable for everyone.

The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as riseand you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated

in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the valueof stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance.


16/25



Aerospace & Defence Over Valued

Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BAE SYSTEMS 304.10 248.10 361.10 Neutral Strong Buy 597 0.63

CHEMRING GROUP 405.00 368.80 736.50 Neutral Buy 454 0.53

COBHAM 184.50 165.90 236.50 Neutral Buy 231 0.94

MEGGITT 357.70 305.00 397.60 Neutral Sell 323 1.34ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS 769.00 552.19 769.00 Sell Sell 589 1.09

SMITHS GROUP 943.50 869.50 1429.00 Neutral Neutral 972 0.71

ULTRA ELECTRONICS HDG. 1501.00 1305.00 1830.00 Neutral Sell 1171 0.59

UMECO 365.00 243.50 512.50 Neutral Neutral 365 0.80

Automobiles & Parts Over Valued


GKN 196.20 157.00 245.00 Neutral Sell 155 1.93

INCHCAPE 300.10 268.60 425.40 Neutral Sell 270 1.40

LOOKERS 51.25 47.00 72.75 Neutral Buy 61 1.34

PENDRAGON 7.85 6.80 19.71 Neutral Sell 7 1.08

Banks Over Valued


BARCLAYS 188.30 138.85 333.55 Neutral Sell 57 1.81

HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50) 504.70 463.50 730.90 Neutral Strong Buy 842 1.12

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP 27.31 21.84 69.61 Sell Strong Buy 144 1.72

ROYAL BANK OF SCTL.GP. 21.13 17.34 49.00 Sell Sell -28 1.23

STANDARD CHARTERED 1432.50 1169.50 1744.50 Neutral Sell 1293 1.69

Beverages Over Valued


BARR (AG) 1187.00 1031.00 1395.00 Neutral Neutral 1211 0.42

DIAGEO 1416.00 1112.00 1428.00 Neutral Sell 1268 0.55

SABMILLER 2339.50 1979.00 2354.50 Neutral Buy 2736 0.97

Chemicals Over Valued


CRODA INTERNATIONAL 1879.00 1456.00 2081.00 Neutral Sell 1541 1.06

ELEMENTIS 143.50 107.50 187.40 Neutral Neutral 145 1.06

JOHNSON MATTHEY 2000.00 1523.00 2119.00 Neutral Sell 1661 1.43

VICTREX 1168.00 1025.00 1590.00 Neutral Sell 1097 1.20

YULE CATTO 177.40 148.00 253.00 Neutral Strong Buy 289 1.25

ZOTEFOAMS 117.00 109.00 158.00 Neutral Strong Buy 190 1.01


17/25



Construction & Building Materials Over Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BALFOUR BEATTY 279.70 214.60 357.30 Neutral Neutral 273 0.85

BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS 96.90 67.50 119.00 Neutral Sell 56 1.39

BELLWAY 720.50 540.50 776.50 Neutral Sell 629 1.00

BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE) 1312.00 884.50 1360.00 Neutral Sell 1243 0.69

BOVIS HOMES GROUP 434.10 326.50 499.60 Neutral Sell 190 1.07CARILLION 304.10 281.00 403.20 Neutral Buy 440 1.10

CLARKE (T) 38.25 35.50 126.50 Neutral Strong Buy 184 0.84

COSTAIN GROUP 213.50 180.00 265.00 Neutral Strong Buy 713 0.58

GALLIFORD TRY 467.40 307.50 530.00 Neutral Buy 517 1.02

KELLER 273.50 239.25 698.50 Neutral Buy 362 1.26

KIER GROUP 1389.00 1097.00 1458.00 Neutral Strong Buy 2906 1.05

LOW & BONAR 42.75 38.00 76.75 Neutral Buy 56 1.04

MARSHALLS 88.50 83.25 124.50 Neutral Sell 62 1.35

MORGAN SINDALL GROUP 634.50 510.00 720.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1316 0.88

PERSIMMON 506.50 374.00 518.50 Neutral Buy 595 1.05

REDROW 116.40 103.50 136.20 Neutral Sell 80 0.95

SIG 88.65 76.95 153.50 Neutral Sell -4 1.56

TAYLOR WIMPEY 38.67 28.71 43.31 Sell Sell 11 1.48

TRAVIS PERKINS 821.50 715.00 1127.00 Neutral Buy 998 1.85

WOLSELEY 2110.00 1404.00 2261.00 Neutral Sell 1622 1.41

Electronics & Electrical Equipment Under Valued


DIALIGHT 790.00 540.00 847.00 Neutral Sell 391 0.73

DOMINO PRINTING SCIENCES 532.00 434.30 705.00 Neutral Neutral 553 1.15

E2V TECHNOLOGIES 109.25 86.75 146.00 Neutral Buy 135 1.30

INVENSYS 214.80 180.90 364.30 Neutral Strong Buy 330 1.51

LAIRD 155.00 127.90 207.00 Neutral Neutral 161 2.20

OXFORD INSTRUMENTS 937.00 600.50 1010.00 Neutral Sell 700 0.97

RENISHAW 1040.00 800.00 1886.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1629 1.22

SPECTRIS 1345.00 1039.00 1679.00 Neutral Sell 1049 1.37

BIOME TECHNOLOGIES 0.17 0.14 0.34 Neutral Strong Buy 0 0.65TT ELECTRONICS 144.50 120.50 208.00 Neutral Buy 214 1.55

XAAR 252.50 207.50 295.00 Neutral Sell 112 1.13

Engineering & Machinery Over Valued


AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP 71.63 62.50 138.00 Neutral Strong Buy 283 1.31

BODYCOTE 283.00 225.60 397.70 Neutral Buy 336 1.56

CASTINGS 263.50 250.50 358.00 Neutral Strong Buy 489 0.96

COOKSON GROUP 550.00 395.80 724.50 Neutral Buy 728 2.26

FENNER 410.40 280.00 422.50 Neutral Sell 267 1.39

HALMA 336.30 306.30 429.60 Neutral Neutral 349 0.74

HILL & SMITH 257.25 235.00 393.50 Neutral Strong Buy 554 1.36

IMI 814.00 636.50 1119.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1298 1.40

METALRAX GROUP 7.75 7.37 12.00 Neutral Sell 7 0.85

MORGAN CRUCIBLE 280.40 224.00 357.10 Neutral Buy 322 1.73

ROTORK 1971.00 1501.00 1979.00 Neutral Sell 1698 1.01

SENIOR 180.00 132.60 190.60 Neutral Neutral 176 1.75

SEVERFIELD-ROWEN 180.00 150.00 328.00 Neutral Sell 159 1.03

SPIRAX-SARCO 1896.00 1649.00 2063.00 Neutral Buy 2144 0.84

VITEC GROUP 551.50 488.00 661.75 Neutral Buy 693 1.51

WEIR GROUP 2192.00 1375.00 2218.00 Sell Sell 765 1.41


18/25



Food & Drug Stores Under Valued


GREGGS 518.50 445.00 550.50 Neutral Sell 480 0.54

MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS. 309.70 262.70 328.00 Neutral Buy 356 0.50

SAINSBURY (J) 305.90 263.50 391.20 Neutral Strong Buy 536 0.65

TESCO 390.00 356.25 425.35 Neutral Neutral 421 0.81

THORNTONS 16.38 16.38 100.75 Buy Buy 20 0.80

Food Producers & Processors Over Valued


ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS 1132.00 940.00 1143.00 Neutral Sell 529 0.59

CRANSWICK 741.00 588.50 882.00 Neutral Sell 700 0.58

DAIRY CREST 322.00 318.80 410.40 Neutral Neutral 339 0.96

DEVRO 254.40 223.50 296.90 Neutral Strong Buy 408 0.31

PREMIER FOODS 5.84 3.29 35.12 Neutral Sell -5 1.43

ROBERT WISEMAN DAIRIES 245.00 233.25 356.50 Neutral Strong Buy 495 0.38

TATE & LYLE 713.00 520.00 720.50 Neutral Sell 385 0.65

UNILEVER (UK) 2151.00 1793.00 2189.00 Neutral Sell 1779 0.63

General Retail Over Valued


ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS 20.50 16.00 25.25 Neutral Neutral 22 0.73

BROWN (N) GROUP 242.00 227.00 311.20 Neutral Sell 182 0.50

BURBERRY GROUP 1279.00 1030.00 1600.00 Neutral Sell 413 1.34

CARPETRIGHT 537.50 375.00 835.50 Sell Sell 141 0.98

CLINTON CARDS 10.00 7.50 27.00 Sell Sell 7 0.64

DIXONS RETAIL 9.60 9.36 23.73 Neutral Strong Buy 22 1.40

FINDEL 2.82 2.20 10.72 Neutral Sell 0 0.96

FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP 37.00 37.00 134.00 Neutral Strong Buy 80 0.91

GAME GROUP 3.80 3.80 73.25 Neutral Strong Buy 128 0.91

HALFORDS GROUP 289.50 269.50 428.20 Neutral Neutral 298 0.62

JJB SPORTS 13.75 5.20 52.70 Sell Strong Buy 1094 0.86JD SPORTS FASHION 707.00 570.00 1030.00 Neutral Buy 946 0.46

KESA ELECTRICALS 65.25 60.20 160.80 Neutral Strong Buy 220 1.27

KINGFISHER 255.00 217.00 287.10 Neutral Sell 219 0.98

MARKS & SPENCER GROUP 317.70 301.80 402.20 Neutral Sell 279 0.73

MOSS BROTHERS GROUP 34.75 23.75 40.00 Neutral Sell 18 1.02

MOTHERCARE 164.25 127.30 551.50 Neutral Strong Buy 258 0.51

NEXT 2590.00 1868.00 2810.00 Neutral Sell 1644 0.81

TED BAKER 660.00 572.50 830.00 Neutral Sell 354 0.52

TOPPS TILES 27.00 21.50 84.50 Neutral Sell 19 1.30

Health Over Valued


CONSORT MEDICAL 536.00 498.00 590.00 Neutral Sell 475 0.39

CORIN GROUP 43.25 36.50 59.00 Neutral Sell 41 0.70

SMITH & NEPHEW 599.00 521.00 742.00 Neutral Neutral 614 0.39

Household Goods & Textiles Under Valued


HARVARD INTL. 37.50 21.75 40.00 Neutral Sell 31 0.47

GAMES WORKSHOP 520.00 342.50 525.00 Neutral Sell 465 0.34

HEADLAM GROUP 264.38 233.25 354.00 Neutral Buy 341 0.91

HORNBY 126.50 105.00 145.00 Neutral Buy 143 0.70


19/25



Information Technology & Hardware Over Valued


ARM HOLDINGS 604.00 464.00 651.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1290 0.77

CSR 190.30 154.10 447.00 Neutral Strong Buy 5221 1.13

FILTRONIC 20.00 14.50 62.00 Sell Sell -193 0.59

IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES 575.50 296.90 575.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1124 0.96

PSION 44.88 43.88 102.75 Neutral Strong Buy 2394 1.19SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS 115.00 105.80 160.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1200 1.01

WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS 133.00 96.00 312.00 Neutral Sell 20 1.02

Insurance Over Valued


ADMIRAL GROUP 843.50 787.00 1754.00 Neutral Sell 335 0.50

AMLIN 325.50 270.60 427.00 Neutral Strong Buy 2303 0.45

BEAZLEY 133.50 109.60 139.20 Neutral Strong Buy 1201 0.51

CATLIN GROUP 396.70 334.00 421.40 Neutral Sell 65 0.32

HISCOX 374.10 340.50 424.70 Neutral Strong Buy 2283 0.49

JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON 675.50 576.00 764.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1811 0.32

RSA INSURANCE GROUP 109.00 99.60 143.50 Neutral Strong Buy 967 0.45

NOVAE GROUP 330.00 285.00 410.00 Neutral Strong Buy 2206 0.49

Leisure & Hotels Under Valued


ARENA LEISURE 36.75 26.00 42.75 Neutral Sell 17 0.76

CARNIVAL 2193.00 1742.00 3137.00 Neutral Strong Buy 3670 1.13

ENTERPRISE INNS 27.25 26.50 114.50 Neutral Strong Buy 88 1.69

TUI TRAVEL 159.50 136.70 271.90 Neutral Strong Buy 575 0.95

FULLER SMITH 'A' 657.25 590.00 752.00 Neutral Buy 726 0.45

GREENE KING 484.40 410.00 518.00 Neutral Strong Buy 732 0.87

LADBROKES 133.50 114.00 155.30 Neutral Strong Buy 238 0.99

ICTL.HTLS.GP. 1230.00 955.00 1435.00 Neutral Sell 866 1.29

MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS. 392.00 371.20 600.50 Neutral Buy 514 1.39MITCHELLS & BUTLERS 246.60 215.60 357.00 Neutral Sell 94 1.02

BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM. 164.20 100.60 214.70 Neutral Sell 136 1.29

PUNCH TAVERNS 9.75 9.14 15.70 Neutral Sell -164 1.28

RANK GROUP 129.50 109.50 153.70 Neutral Strong Buy 196 0.97

RESTAURANT GROUP 288.30 254.90 335.00 Neutral Buy 343 0.88

WETHERSPOON (JD) 422.80 380.50 468.30 Neutral Strong Buy 706 0.75

WHITBREAD 1645.00 1409.00 1884.00 Neutral Buy 1834 1.04

WILLIAM HILL 204.50 169.70 244.10 Neutral Buy 306 0.93

MARSTON'S 90.90 84.60 112.00 Neutral Strong Buy 170 1.24

Life Assurance Over Valued

Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target BetaAVIVA 307.00 275.30 477.90 Neutral Strong Buy 435 1.22

CHESNARA 195.75 161.75 264.00 Neutral Sell 177 0.60

LEGAL & GENERAL 107.00 89.80 123.80 Neutral Buy 83 1.65

OLD MUTUAL 139.60 98.05 144.80 Neutral Sell 160 1.62

PRUDENTIAL 652.00 509.00 777.00 Neutral Sell 316 1.72

ST.JAMES'S PLACE 337.90 272.50 376.00 Neutral Strong Buy 121 0.79


20/25



Media & Entertainment Over Valued


AEGIS GROUP 144.70 116.17 159.08 Neutral Sell 84 1.30

BLOOMSBURY PBL. 92.00 91.25 138.00 Neutral Buy 117 0.48

BRITISH SKY BCAST.GROUP 716.50 618.50 850.00 Neutral Sell 630 0.64

CENTAUR MEDIA 33.38 32.50 73.00 Neutral Sell -52 1.00

DAILY MAIL 'A' 404.00 343.40 594.50 Neutral Buy 536 1.08EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR 648.00 522.50 736.00 Neutral Neutral 618 1.04

INFORMA 362.00 313.90 461.10 Neutral Sell 299 1.50

ITE GROUP 205.70 157.70 258.20 Neutral Sell 144 1.39

ITV 71.80 51.65 93.45 Neutral Neutral 75 1.49

JOHNSTON PRESS 5.75 4.11 12.75 Neutral Strong Buy 56 1.45

PEARSON 1237.00 984.50 1237.00 Neutral Sell 1009 0.70

PHOTO-ME INTL. 54.00 39.50 67.00 Neutral Strong Buy 82 0.86

PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON 270.50 132.75 277.50 Neutral Sell 139 0.37

THOMSON REUTERS 28.37 26.21 41.49 Neutral Sell 24 0.52

STV GROUP 76.75 76.25 168.00 Neutral Buy 103 0.77

ST.IVES 78.00 68.50 108.50 Neutral Strong Buy 208 1.31

TRINITY MIRROR 49.00 37.50 93.00 Neutral Strong Buy 441 1.58

UBM 481.50 416.00 725.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1548 1.28

WILMINGTON GROUP 84.50 82.50 183.00 Neutral Buy 102 0.86

WPP 724.50 578.00 846.50 Neutral Neutral 773 1.27YELL GROUP 5.09 3.35 13.75 Neutral Strong Buy 41 1.32

Mining Under Valued


ANGLO AMERICAN 2518.50 2138.50 3437.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6449 1.74

ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP 277.00 237.90 369.25 Neutral Buy 367 0.92

ANTOFAGASTA 1296.00 900.50 1571.00 Neutral Sell 1084 1.38

BHP BILLITON 2014.00 1667.00 2631.50 Neutral Strong Buy 4610 1.40

LONMIN 975.00 941.00 1896.00 Neutral Sell 843 1.90

RANDGOLD RESOURCES 7220.00 4425.00 7555.00 Neutral Sell 1866 0.30

RIO TINTO 3428.50 2712.50 4712.00 Neutral Strong Buy 5314 1.41

UK COAL 30.25 28.50 55.25 Neutral Sell -73 1.05VEDANTA RESOURCES 928.00 2518.00 Neutral Strong Buy 5383 2.05

XSTRATA 1043.00 764.00 1550.00 Neutral Buy 1194 1.76

Oil & Gas Under Valued


BG GROUP 1478.00 1144.00 1564.50 Neutral Buy 1906 0.70

BP 479.60 363.20 509.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1234 1.06

CAIRN ENERGY 270.40 257.80 469.70 Neutral Buy 335 1.34

FORTUNE OIL 11.00 9.00 14.75 Neutral Strong Buy 23 0.87

HUNTING 818.00 530.00 818.00 Sell Buy 930 1.31

JKX OIL & GAS 126.75 126.75 335.10 Neutral Strong Buy 364 1.35

MELROSE RESOURCES 117.25 95.25 297.00 Neutral Strong Buy 631 1.12

PREMIER OIL 394.50 310.00 535.00 Neutral Buy 525 1.34

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL A(LON) 2402.00 1883.50 2402.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6400 0.94

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B 2489.00 1890.50 2489.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6463 0.95

SOCO INTERNATIONAL 298.20 278.00 400.00 Neutral Sell 198 0.50

TULLOW OIL 1437.00 945.50 1493.00 Neutral Sell 459 1.07

WOOD GROUP (JOHN) 689.00 469.90 715.75 Neutral Buy 766 1.34

Personal Care & Household Products Over Valued


MCBRIDE 115.50 110.75 158.22 Neutral Sell 102 0.85

PZ CUSSONS 324.10 308.70 404.00 Neutral Neutral 355 0.80

RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP 3355.00 3015.00 3578.00 Neutral Sell 3166 0.32


21/25



Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Under Valued


ARK THERAPEUTICS GP. 3.55 3.13 5.68 Buy Strong Buy 10 0.92

ASTRAZENECA 3024.50 2543.50 3194.00 Neutral Strong Buy 10696 0.46

BTG 328.00 210.10 331.30 Neutral Sell 119 0.72

DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS 520.00 433.00 535.00 Neutral Strong Buy 962 0.32

GLAXOSMITHKLINE 1420.00 1127.50 1497.00 Neutral Neutral 1439 0.49OXFORD BIOMEDICA 3.28 2.91 7.20 Buy Sell -1 0.60

PHYTOPHARM 7.93 6.40 9.75 Buy Sell -2 0.89

SHIRE 2180.00 1622.00 2243.00 Neutral Sell 1392 0.64

SKYEPHARMA 32.00 31.50 66.13 Neutral Strong Buy 281 0.71

VERNALIS 19.88 18.75 50.00 Neutral Sell -19 0.81

Software & Computer Services Over Valued


TIMEWEAVE 23.13 21.50 27.00 Neutral Strong Buy 43 0.73

ANITE 94.75 57.75 95.00 Neutral Sell 53 0.82

AVEVA GROUP 1466.00 1298.00 1799.00 Neutral Sell 856 1.44

COMPUTACENTER 345.90 324.70 490.00 Neutral Strong Buy 802 1.07

KOFAX 246.50 225.00 535.00 Neutral Neutral 244 1.05

INNOVATION GROUP 20.50 15.25 23.00 Neutral Sell 16 0.91

LOGICA 68.15 58.95 147.20 Neutral Strong Buy 163 1.33

MICRO FOCUS INTL. 405.00 239.40 426.20 Neutral Neutral 387 0.71

MISYS 243.00 214.90 420.20 Neutral Buy 337 1.29

PHOENIX IT GROUP 155.50 154.75 290.00 Buy Strong Buy 403 0.85

RM 64.00 41.50 175.00 Neutral Strong Buy 329 0.39

FIDESSA GROUP 1626.00 1444.00 2109.00 Neutral Sell 1494 0.79

SAGE GROUP 300.40 231.70 302.00 Neutral Sell 280 0.65

Speciality & Other Finance Over Valued


ABERDEEN ASSET MAN. 216.00 167.80 240.00 Neutral Sell 86 1.07BREWIN DOLPHIN 139.50 113.70 185.40 Neutral Sell 126 0.70

CAMELLIA 9643.00 8800.00 10950.00 Neutral Strong Buy 15693 0.87

CHARLES STANLEY GROUP 270.00 240.00 350.00 Neutral Neutral 261 0.94

CHARLES TAYLOR CNSL. 127.50 115.63 165.00 Neutral Buy 183 0.70

CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP 601.50 590.00 888.50 Neutral Sell 280 0.80

F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT 60.00 56.05 92.50 Neutral Buy 80 0.91

HELPHIRE GROUP 1.85 1.36 17.38 Neutral Strong Buy 4 0.64

HENDERSON GROUP 100.90 95.05 173.10 Neutral Sell 84 1.41

ICAP 321.20 311.60 570.50 Neutral Sell 275 1.08

INTERMEDIATE CAPITAL GP. 234.10 197.90 360.30 Neutral Neutral 227 1.62

INVESTEC 341.10 318.40 534.00 Neutral Sell 203 1.53

LONDON STOCK EX.GROUP 801.00 756.50 1076.00 Neutral Sell 648 1.15

MAN GROUP 108.30 107.30 311.00 Neutral Strong Buy 163 1.27

RATHBONE BROTHERS 1070.00 977.00 1257.00 Neutral Neutral 1126 0.73

SCHRODERS 1271.00 1183.00 1922.00 Neutral Buy 1492 1.30

SCHRODERS NV 1037.00 970.00 1554.00 Neutral Buy 1492 1.29


22/25



Support Services Under Valued


ACAL 175.00 166.25 367.50 Neutral Strong Buy 321 0.93

AGGREKO 2123.00 1394.48 2131.00 Sell Sell 1186 1.18

AMEC 992.00 740.50 1251.00 Neutral Buy 1202 1.01

ASHTEAD GROUP 223.80 99.40 230.20 Neutral Sell 116 1.50

BABCOCK INTL. 735.50 542.00 738.50 Neutral Sell 653 0.56BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS. 353.25 230.00 353.25 Neutral Strong Buy 1015 0.70

BUNZL 906.50 676.50 906.50 Sell Neutral 946 0.55

UK MAIL GROUP 237.50 192.25 331.00 Neutral Strong Buy 512 0.28

CAPITA 649.00 611.50 786.50 Neutral Neutral 660 0.42

COMMUNISIS 26.75 23.75 37.00 Neutral Strong Buy 90 0.72

COMPASS GROUP 612.50 512.50 616.00 Neutral Buy 686 0.75

BERENDSEN 444.40 402.70 568.00 Neutral Buy 660 1.03

DE LA RUE 922.00 667.00 936.00 Neutral Neutral 997 #NA

DIGNITY 834.50 648.50 854.50 Neutral Buy 925 0.22

DIPLOMA 362.40 263.50 414.25 Neutral Sell 303 0.98

ELECTROCOMP. 208.30 182.20 294.90 Neutral Strong Buy 350 0.99

FILTRONA 397.30 253.60 399.90 Neutral Neutral 405 1.13

G4S 276.20 219.90 291.00 Neutral Buy 364 0.60

HAYS 62.70 58.85 130.70 Neutral Strong Buy 134 0.95

HOMESERVE 300.00 218.50 532.00 Neutral Buy 444 0.67INTERSERVE 313.10 239.75 341.25 Neutral Strong Buy 744 1.40

INTERTEK GROUP 2101.00 1715.00 2148.00 Neutral Sell 1534 0.86

JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP 25.25 25.25 36.00 Neutral Strong Buy 64 1.16

MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP. 32.75 27.75 45.50 Neutral Strong Buy 52 0.67

MENZIES (JOHN) 520.00 425.00 550.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1152 1.44

MICHAEL PAGE INTL. 345.20 323.00 567.00 Neutral Buy 416 1.33

MITIE GROUP 271.00 195.90 271.00 Neutral Buy 379 0.60

MOUCHEL GROUP 4.94 4.94 154.75 Neutral Sell -268 0.84

OFFICE2OFFICE 138.50 112.50 166.50 Neutral Strong Buy 264 0.36

PAYPOINT 565.00 327.25 570.00 Neutral Buy 698 0.76

PREMIER FARNELL 189.50 144.50 308.80 Neutral Strong Buy 333 1.18

REGUS 83.50 64.00 119.00 Neutral Sell 67 1.39

RENTOKIL INITIAL 66.60 58.20 104.90 Neutral Sell 49 1.29

REXAM 371.50 299.80 400.00 Neutral Buy 492 0.87

RICARDO 378.00 311.00 410.00 Neutral Buy 512 0.83

ROBERT WALTERS 176.00 158.25 347.00 Neutral Strong Buy 331 1.18

RPC GROUP 385.00 231.50 385.00 Neutral Neutral 416 0.81

RPS GROUP 188.00 156.60 253.00 Neutral Buy 276 1.55

SERCO GROUP 512.00 458.00 618.50 Neutral Buy 632 0.57

SHANKS GROUP 97.50 90.80 130.90 Neutral Strong Buy 153 1.44

SPEEDY HIRE 20.00 18.50 34.00 Neutral Sell -7 1.27

TRIBAL GROUP 45.25 36.25 51.00 Neutral Sell -265 0.54

TRIFAST 37.75 36.25 52.88 Neutral Strong Buy 59 0.86

VP 219.37 191.00 253.75 Neutral Strong Buy 546 0.89

WYG 52.50 48.38 1237.51 Neutral Sell -8286 0.77

WSP GROUP 235.00 160.00 385.00 Neutral Strong Buy 539 0.92

Telecommunication Services Under Valued


BT GROUP 199.50 161.00 204.10 Neutral Buy 262 0.92

CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS. 37.96 31.25 51.20 Neutral Strong Buy 139 0.65

INMARSAT 424.00 389.30 719.50 Neutral Sell 360 0.52

KCOM GROUP 68.80 57.50 84.00 Neutral Buy 85 1.27

TELECOM PLUS 735.00 433.00 802.00 Neutral Sell 489 0.06

VODAFONE GROUP 178.75 155.05 182.75 Neutral Neutral 187 0.65


23/25



Transport Under Valued


BBA AVIATION 180.00 156.00 240.80 Neutral Sell 169 1.40

BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS. 324.75 282.00 545.00 Neutral Strong Buy 660 0.90

CLARKSON 1160.00 1015.00 1355.00 Neutral Buy 1560 0.81

EASYJET 398.90 301.00 465.00 Neutral Sell 378 0.76

FIRST GROUP 329.50 301.80 406.30 Neutral Buy 427 1.10FISHER(JAMES)& SONS 505.00 440.50 574.00 Neutral Sell 343 0.83

GO-AHEAD GROUP 1321.00 1190.00 1598.00 Neutral Buy 1790 0.97

NATIONAL EXPRESS 220.90 201.60 270.20 Neutral Sell 187 1.30

NORTHGATE 207.00 190.90 346.70 Neutral Strong Buy 372 1.34

STAGECOACH GROUP 271.50 199.97 272.41 Neutral Sell 208 0.90

WINCANTON 67.75 56.00 161.75 Neutral Strong Buy 165 0.86

Utilities Under Valued


CENTRICA 287.50 278.80 345.80 Neutral Neutral 293 0.50

NATIONAL GRID 631.50 530.00 649.50 Neutral Buy 787 0.57

PENNON GROUP 711.00 584.50 737.50 Neutral Sell 628 0.63

SEVERN TRENT 1539.00 1368.00 1600.00 Neutral Sell 1361 0.47

UNITED UTILITIES GROUP 614.00 543.50 637.00 Neutral Neutral 623 0.60


24/25



DISCLAIMER

Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys (Intellisys) is the tradingname of Intelligent Analysis Limited.

Intelligent Analysis Limited is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possiblevalue of quoted company shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys

reports are designed to present an objective assessment of the possible value or relative valueof a company and/or an actuarial sector or stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensiveas possible range of valuation tools and proprietary systems to derive its outputs. The basedata for the models are derived from sources believed to be accurate but Intelligent Analysis

Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of the source data or itsmodels and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely upon theIntellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice

specific to their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under theFinancial Services and Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.

Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of thisreport. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to theaccuracy or completeness or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is

accepted to the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions ormisstatements, negligent or otherwise. In no event will Intelligent Analysis Limited, Intellisysor any of its officers, employees or agents be liable to any other party for any direct, indirect,special or other consequential damages arising from the use of this report.

The Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports are not directed to any person in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that persons nationality, residence or otherwise) thepublication or availability of the Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys information maybe prohibited. Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access the

Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports. Neither this document, nor any copy inwhatever form of media, may be taken or transmitted into the United States, Canada,Australia, Ireland, South Africa or Japan or into any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful todo so. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of relevant localsecurities laws. Recipients of Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports outside theUK are not covered by the rules and regulations made for the protection of investors in the UK.

Any user distributing information taken from any Intelligent Analysis Limited or Intellisysreport and/or the Intellisys website, in whatever form, to any other person, agrees to attach acopy of this Disclaimer and the Terms and Conditions of Use pages and obtain the agreementof such other person to comply with the terms set forth.

Intellisys' published reports are published for information purposes and only available tomarket counterparties, high net-worth and sophisticated individual investors.

No Intellisys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire anyshares or other financial instruments in any company or any interest therein, nor shall it formthe basis of any contract entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument inany company.

Intelligent Analysis Limited believes that the information within each and any of its reports to

be correct, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation orwarranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or completeness of


25/25


the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for the accuracy or sufficiency ofany of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise.

Intelligent Analysis Limited (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or aconnected person may have positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the

securities mentioned within a report, and may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell suchsecurities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by internal rules.

Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may goup or down and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatoryauthority and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.

RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target PricesIntellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication isprovided solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions.

If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contactyour financial adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.

The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and youmay not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency,fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income

from them. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

uk trading & value indicator 20120111

Documents

Transcript of uk trading & value indicator 20120111