Time-Shifting Kate Roemer Dec. 6, 2004
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Transcript of Time-Shifting Kate Roemer Dec. 6, 2004
Time-ShiftingKate RoemerDec. 6, 2004
Introduction• Time-shifted viewing
– When a broadcast signal is recorded to be viewed at a later time
– Changes the broadcast model from synchronous to asynchronous communication
– Marks a significant power shift from broadcasters to viewers
– Interferes with traditional spot advertising
• Supervening social necessity– Viewers want to watch television on their
own time table
• Time-shifting technologies– VCR, the past– DVR, the present– VoD, a picture of the future
VCR - diffusion• One of the fasted adoption rates in the history of
consumer electronics– What drove diffusion?
• Competition drove prices to near cost• Growth of home video industry
• High points in VCR development history– 1950s: Television stations and networks used video
tape technology– 1963: The Neiman Marcus catalog offered the
Ampex VTR (video tape recorder) for a mere $30,000
– 1975: Sony introduces Betamax, the first 1/2” tape with one hour recording capability, for $2,300 with a TV
– 1977: first VHS offering, with 2 hour recording capacity
– 1988: Sony begins manufacturing VHS VCRs • Beta vs. VHS
• Why did VHS win?– Strong manufacturing partners– Longer recording capacity– Large number of devices and lower cost
VCR – law of suppression
• The brakes– Prohibitive costs early on– Legal action
•The “Betamax” case– 1976: Universal Studios and Disney
sued Sony for contributory copyright infringement
– The case bounced through appeals courts with judges ruling both ways
– 1984: The Supreme court decided in favor of Sony, saying home recording is “fair use” and time-shifting expands public access thus benefiting society
VCR – avoiding advertising• Zipping: Fast forwarding
through commercials– Inhibits advertising impact– Doesn’t completely eliminate
impact• Viewers might pay closer attention to
zipped ads to avoid zipping into programming
• Advertisements are archived along with programming when recorded
• Entertainment industry ignored ad avoidance issues with VCR– Poor usability for time-shifting
• Blinking 12:00
– Huge success of home video market
The DVR – time-shifting goes digital
• A super powered VCR– DVR surpasses VCR in usability
• Simple interface– Interactive program guides– Collaborative filtering
• No tapes for storage• Digital storage opens new options for
manipulation
• Devices and services– ReplayTV – TiVo– Cable and satellite are entering the
game with their own DVRs
DVR - diffusion• DVR diffusion mimics the VCR
– Competition is driving awareness and reducing costs•Some cable providers will include
a free DVR with digital service
– Wide range of available devices•Stand alone• Integrated with cable or satellite
receiver• Integrated with DVD burner
– Legal action from the entertainment industry
DVR - suppression• The brakes
– Frequently considered a redundant technology
– Hollywood re-raises legal questions brought up in the Betamax case
• 2001: A group studios sue SonicBlue for copyright infringement
– SonicBlue’s ReplayTV allowed peer-to-peer program sharing and automatic commercial block elimination
• A group of ReplayTV users counter sued• Both cases were dropped when SonicBlue
declared bankruptcy and DNNA dropped the controversial features when it started distributing ReplayTV units
– Possible legislation to prevent zipping
• Intelectual Property Protection Act currently before Congress
DVR – threat to advertising income• Primary purpose of the DVR is
time-shifting– More ad avoidance options
• Zipping• 30 second skip• Commercial block elimination
– Ease of use and more options increases ad avoidance behavior
• DVRs can benefit advertisers– Offer space for long form
advertisements– Sell aggregate data on viewer habits– TiVo will soon be tagging
commercials to run billboards during zipping
The next time-shift
• Video on demand (VoD)– Streaming and non-streaming– High cost
•VoD fees are in addition to already high cable bills
– Limited content available
Time-shifting in the future
• What will determine the future success of time-shifting?– Financial viability
•Advertising revenue•Subscription income
– Demand•Possible alternative to cable ala cart
– Usability
Questions?