The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP)Crop1 Crop1 Crop2 Crop2 … Roof Sun Wall Shade...
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Advancing our understanding of the impacts of historic and projected land use in the Earth System The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) Chairs: David Lawrence (NCAR) and George Hur; (University of Maryland) SSG: Almut Arneth, Victor Brovkin, Kate Calvin, Andrew Jones, Chris Jones, Peter Lawrence, Julia Pongratz, Sonia Seneviratne, Elena Shevliakova with input from many from Earth System Modeling, Integrated Assessment Modeling, and historical land use communiOes h;ps://cmip.ucar.edu/lumip
Transcript of The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP)Crop1 Crop1 Crop2 Crop2 … Roof Sun Wall Shade...
Advancingourunderstandingoftheimpacts ofhistoricandprojectedlanduse
intheEarthSystem
TheLandUseModelIntercomparisonProject(LUMIP)
Chairs:DavidLawrence(NCAR)andGeorgeHur;(UniversityofMaryland)
SSG:AlmutArneth,VictorBrovkin,KateCalvin,AndrewJones,ChrisJones,PeterLawrence,JuliaPongratz,SoniaSeneviratne,ElenaShevliakova
withinputfrommanyfromEarthSystemModeling,IntegratedAssessmentModeling,
andhistoricallandusecommuniOes
h;ps://cmip.ucar.edu/lumip
Advancingourunderstandingoftheimpacts ofhistoricandprojectedlanduse
intheEarthSystem
TheLandUseModelIntercomparisonProject(LUMIP)
Muchabouttheimpactoflanduseandland-usechangeinclimateandthecarboncycleremainsuncertain…
…ashighlightedbyLUCID…
• 3
deNoblet-Ducoudréetal.2012,Boisieretal.2012
• 30-50%ofvariaOoninland-useclimatesignala;ributedtodifferencesinspecifiedlandusechange
• UncertaintyinLULCCimpactonTlargerthanforCO2• ModelsdonotagreeonsignofimpactonevapotranspiraOon• Modelsignorerelevantprocesses,e.g.irrigaOon
…andwithrespecttothecarboncycle(LUCID-CMIP5)
Brovkinetal..,J.Clim.2013
ChangesinlandcarbonstorageTotalDuetolandcoverchange
PgC
• DisparityacrossCMIP5modelsintermsofLCCimpactonC,eveninscenariowhereprescribedLCCwasrelaOvelysmall(RCP8.5)
• And,manyCMIP5modelsrepresentlandusesimplisOcally(w/owoodharvest,cropmanagement,irrigaOon,ferOlizaOon,shiaingculOvaOon)
• IndirectCimpactsasbigorbiggerthandirect(Mahowaldetal.2016)
LUMIPGoalsWhataretheeffectsoflanduseandland-usechangeonclimateandbiogeochemicalcycling(past-future)?
Whataretheimpactsoflandmanagementonsurfacefluxesofcarbon,water,andenergyandarethereregionalland-managementstrategieswithpromisetohelpmiOgateagainstclimatechange?
• Fossilfuelvs.landusechange• Biogeochemicalvs.biogeophysical
impactoflanduse• Impactsfromland-coverchangevsland
management• ModulaOonoflanduseimpacton
climatebyland-atmospherecouplingstrength(LS3MIP)
• ModulaOonofglobalCO2ferOlizaOonbyLULCC
• DirectvsindirectcarbonconsequencesofLULCC
• TotalradiaOveforcingfromLULCC
CMIP6QuesOons:HowdoesEarthSystemrespondtoforcing?WCRPGrandChallenge:Biosphericforcingsandfeedbacks,WaterAvailability,ClimateExtremes
LUMIPAcOviOes• DatastandardizaGon
– RepeatandmaturelanduseharmonizaOonprocessàenhancedland-usedatasetforCMIP6,passingmaximumamountofcommoninformaOonbetweenrelevantcommuniOes(Historical,IAMs,ESMs)
– ProvideaddiOonalrequiredlandmanagementdatasets– Dataoutput:newvariables,subgridland-useOlevariables
• Modelexperiments– Experimentsdesignedtoisolate,quanOfy,andunderstandlanduseandlandmanagementeffectsonclimate
• ModelmetricsanddiagnosGcs– Developmetricstoassess/quanOfymodelperformancewithrespecttolanduseimpactsonclimate
– SynthesisacOvitytodocumentexisOngmetrics
0.25°resoluOon850to2100
NewHistoryHyde4-basedLandsatF/NFconstraintMulOplecroptypes(5)MulOplepasturetypes(2)Updatedforestcover/biomassUpdatedwoodharvestUpdatedshiaingculOvaOon
NewManagementLayersAgriculture%croplandirrigated%croplandflooded%croplandferOlized(industrial)IndustrialFerOlizerapplicaOonrates%croplandforbiofuelsCroprotaOonsWoodHarvest%usedforindustrialproducts%usedforcommercialbiofuels%usedforfuelwood
7SupportedbyDOE-SciDAC
LandUseHarmonizaGonDataset(LUHv2)
A B
C D
GlobalAgriculturalArea:HYDE3.2*andHYDE3.1
LUMIPExperimentalDesign
• Remove20millionkm2forestover50yearsfromtop30%forestareagridcells,starOngfrom1850control
• ControlledassessmentofcoupledmodelresponsetodeforestaOon
CESMMPI
1.IdealizedglobaldeforestaOon(GCM,Tier1)
Tair2m LAI
0C
Year Year
* indicates significant change at the 95% confidence level
No significant feedback in the CTRL simulations. With the HCF trigger PRECT↓
Chen et al., 2016; Chen et al., submitted
Representation of convective trigger alters land-cover change response
2.NoLULCCexperiments:Historicperiod1850-2015Coupledandland-only
• AssessimpactofLULCCinhistoricalperiodforwater,carbon,energyfluxesandclimate(C4MIP,LS3MIP)
• Assessland-onlyvscoupledresponsetohistoricLULCC(LS3MIP)• Assesshowland-atmospherecouplingstrengthmodulatesclimate,weather,extremesresponsetoLULCC(LS3MIP)
• RelevantfordetecOonanda;ribuOon(DAMIP)
CMIP6Historical
Land-onlyHistorical
CMIP6Historical
Land-onlyHistorical
Land management
Erb et al., GCB, 2016
~80% non-ice land area under land management
~25% non-ice land area undergone anthropogenic land-cover change
3.Landcoverchangevslandmanagementexperiments(Tier2)
Setofland-onlyhistoricsimulaOons(variantsofLMIP-Hist)withone-at-a-OmemodificaOonofparOcularaspectsoflandmanagement;Evaluateimpactoflanduseonfluxesofwater,energy,andcarbon
① Year1700insteadof1850start② NoLULCCchange③ Alternatelandusehistories④ NoshiaingculOvaOon⑤ Cropandpastureasunmanaged
grassland⑥ Cropswithcropmodelbutno
irrigaOon/ferOlizaOon⑦ NoirrigaOon⑧ NoferOlizaOon⑨ Nowoodharvest⑩ Nograzingonpastureland
⑩ NohumanfireigniOon/suppression11 Constant1850CO2(Ndep?)12 Constantclimate
LandUseChange ✗✗ ✗
| | Institute of Atmospheric and Climate Science
Present-day irrigation mitigates heat extremes
(Thiery et al., JGR 2017)
• Only ~40% of irrigated water used by increased ET • 60% lost to runoff • Very likely not realistic
Land-Use Scenario
Main Scenario SSP1-2.6 Afforest
SSP3-7 Deforest
SSP5-8.5 Weak Deforest
SSP1-2.6 ScenarioMIP Conc.-driven
SSP3-7 ScenarioMIP Conc.-driven
SSP5-8.5 C4MIP Emissions-driven
Land-Use Scenario
Main Scenario SSP1-2.6 Afforest
SSP3-7 Deforest
SSP5-8.5 Weak Deforest
SSP1-2.6 ScenarioMIP Conc.-driven
LUMIP Conc.-driven
SSP3-7 LUMIP Conc.-driven
ScenarioMIP Conc.-driven
SSP5-8.5 C4MIP Emissions-driven
BiogeophysicalclimateimpactsofLULCC;assesslandmanagementforregionalclimatemiGgaGon
AssesshowLULCCimpactdiffersatdifferentclimatechangeandCO2levels
Land-Use Scenario
Main Scenario SSP1-2.6 Afforest
SSP3-7 Deforest
SSP5-8.5 Weak Deforest
SSP1-2.6 ScenarioMIP Conc.-driven
LUMIP Conc.-driven
SSP3-7 LUMIP Conc.-driven
ScenarioMIP Conc.-driven
SSP5-8.5 LUMIP Emissions-driven
C4MIP Emissions-driven
BiogeophysicalclimateimpactsofLULCC;assesslandmanagementforregionalclimatemiGgaGon
AssesshowLULCCimpactdiffersatdifferentclimatechangeandCO2levels
FulleffectsofLULCCthroughbothbiogeophysandbiogeochemprocesses
Land-usechangeimpactmetricsExample:DayOmeversusnighzmeresponsetodeforestaOon
Lejeuneetal.,J.Clim,2017
SynthesispaperledbyEdouardDavinandDavidLawrence(sortof)
underway
WillformbasisforLULCCassessmentinILAMB
h;ps://cmip.ucar.edu/lumipLUMIPGoogleGroup(70members)
Subgridland-useGledatarequestLUMIPisrequesOngsub-gridinformaOonforfoursub-gridcategories(i.e.,Oles)forselectedvariablestopermitmoredetailedanalysisofland-useinducedsurfaceheterogeneity.Thefourcategoriesare:(1)Primaryandsecondaryland(2)Cropland(3)Pastureland(4)Urban
Selected Subgrid Variables (not the full list, see LUMIP website)
Biogeophysical variables tasLut – near-surface air temperature hussLut – near-surface specific humidity hflsLut – latent heat flux hfssLut – sensible heat flux rsusLut – surface upwelling shortwave (albedo) laiLut – leaf area index Bigoechemical variables, carbon stocks/fluxes gppLut – gross primary productivity nppLut – net primary productivity cSoilLut – carbon mass in soil pool cVegLut – carbon mass in vegetation cLitterLut – carbon mass in litter pool LULCC fraction changes fracInLut – fraction transferred into land-use type fracOutLut – fraction transferred out of LUT
LUMIP LUT vars requested for following expts • CMIP6 Historical (coupled and land-only) • ScenarioMIP • C4MIP scenario expts • LUMIP
STATUS Lut variables are included in latest CMOR tables versions
Gridcell
Glacier Lake
Landunit
Column
PFT
Urban Vegetated
Soil
ExampleaggregaOonontoLand-UseTilesforCLM
Crop
PFT1 PFT2 PFT3 PFT4 …
Unirrig Irrig Unirrig Irrig
Crop1 Crop1 Crop2 Crop2 …
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Sun Wall
Shade Wall
Pervious
Impervious
TBD
MD HD
CLMGlingstructure
Gridcell
Glacier Lake
Landunit
Column
PFT
Urban Vegetated
Soil
ExampleaggregaOonontoLand-UseTilesforCLM
Crop
PFT1 PFT2 PFT3 PFT4 …
Unirrig Irrig Unirrig Irrig
Crop1 Crop1 Crop2 Crop2 …
Roof
Sun Wall
Shade Wall
Pervious
Impervious
TBD
MD HD
CLMGlingstructure
Pasture X
| | Institute of Atmospheric and Climate Science
Sub-grid impacts
28/04/2017 Wim Thiery 24
LUMIP/LUH2Timeline
• 2016:October,kickoffwebinar
• 2017through2018:ModelsimulaOons
– Ideally,groupswouldrunland-onlysimulaOonfirstandbenchmarksimulated/imposedlandcoverOmeseries
– AlsopreferredthatgroupsruntheidealizeddeforestaOonexptearly
• 2017March:BetaversionsofLUH2harmonizeddatasetsforSSPsreleased
• 2017Ongoing:Transientland-useandidealizeddeforestspotchecks
• 2017Fall:beginanalysis(coordinaOonthroughLUMIPSSG,starOngsummer2017,askgroupstoregisterinterestinanalyses)
• 2017Land-usechangeimpactsmetrics/benchmarkssynthesispapers
• 2018Summer:possibleLUMIPmeeOngtopresent/discusspapers/analysis– AspenAGCI?
• 2018Fall:possiblejointLUMIP,C4MIP,LS3MIPmeeOng
– a;achtoCRESCENDOmeeOnginSeptemberinParis?
• 2021IPCCAR6?
AnnualChangesinGlobalAgriculturalArea:HYDE3.2*andHYDE3.1
A B
