Advancingourunderstandingoftheimpacts ofhistoricandprojectedlanduse

intheEarthSystem

TheLandUseModelIntercomparisonProject(LUMIP)

Chairs:DavidLawrence(NCAR)andGeorgeHur;(UniversityofMaryland)

SSG:AlmutArneth,VictorBrovkin,KateCalvin,AndrewJones,ChrisJones,PeterLawrence,JuliaPongratz,SoniaSeneviratne,ElenaShevliakova

withinputfrommanyfromEarthSystemModeling,IntegratedAssessmentModeling,

andhistoricallandusecommuniOes

h;ps://cmip.ucar.edu/lumip

Advancingourunderstandingoftheimpacts ofhistoricandprojectedlanduse

intheEarthSystem

TheLandUseModelIntercomparisonProject(LUMIP)

Muchabouttheimpactoflanduseandland-usechangeinclimateandthecarboncycleremainsuncertain…

…ashighlightedbyLUCID…

•  3

deNoblet-Ducoudréetal.2012,Boisieretal.2012

•  30-50%ofvariaOoninland-useclimatesignala;ributedtodifferencesinspecifiedlandusechange

•  UncertaintyinLULCCimpactonTlargerthanforCO2•  ModelsdonotagreeonsignofimpactonevapotranspiraOon•  Modelsignorerelevantprocesses,e.g.irrigaOon

…andwithrespecttothecarboncycle(LUCID-CMIP5)

Brovkinetal..,J.Clim.2013

ChangesinlandcarbonstorageTotalDuetolandcoverchange

PgC

•  DisparityacrossCMIP5modelsintermsofLCCimpactonC,eveninscenariowhereprescribedLCCwasrelaOvelysmall(RCP8.5)

•  And,manyCMIP5modelsrepresentlandusesimplisOcally(w/owoodharvest,cropmanagement,irrigaOon,ferOlizaOon,shiaingculOvaOon)

•  IndirectCimpactsasbigorbiggerthandirect(Mahowaldetal.2016)

LUMIPGoalsWhataretheeffectsoflanduseandland-usechangeonclimateandbiogeochemicalcycling(past-future)?

Whataretheimpactsoflandmanagementonsurfacefluxesofcarbon,water,andenergyandarethereregionalland-managementstrategieswithpromisetohelpmiOgateagainstclimatechange?

•  Fossilfuelvs.landusechange•  Biogeochemicalvs.biogeophysical

impactoflanduse•  Impactsfromland-coverchangevsland

management•  ModulaOonoflanduseimpacton

climatebyland-atmospherecouplingstrength(LS3MIP)

•  ModulaOonofglobalCO2ferOlizaOonbyLULCC

•  DirectvsindirectcarbonconsequencesofLULCC

•  TotalradiaOveforcingfromLULCC

CMIP6QuesOons:HowdoesEarthSystemrespondtoforcing?WCRPGrandChallenge:Biosphericforcingsandfeedbacks,WaterAvailability,ClimateExtremes

LUMIPAcOviOes•  DatastandardizaGon

–  RepeatandmaturelanduseharmonizaOonprocessàenhancedland-usedatasetforCMIP6,passingmaximumamountofcommoninformaOonbetweenrelevantcommuniOes(Historical,IAMs,ESMs)

–  ProvideaddiOonalrequiredlandmanagementdatasets–  Dataoutput:newvariables,subgridland-useOlevariables

•  Modelexperiments–  Experimentsdesignedtoisolate,quanOfy,andunderstandlanduseandlandmanagementeffectsonclimate

•  ModelmetricsanddiagnosGcs–  Developmetricstoassess/quanOfymodelperformancewithrespecttolanduseimpactsonclimate

–  SynthesisacOvitytodocumentexisOngmetrics

0.25°resoluOon850to2100

NewHistoryHyde4-basedLandsatF/NFconstraintMulOplecroptypes(5)MulOplepasturetypes(2)Updatedforestcover/biomassUpdatedwoodharvestUpdatedshiaingculOvaOon

NewManagementLayersAgriculture%croplandirrigated%croplandflooded%croplandferOlized(industrial)IndustrialFerOlizerapplicaOonrates%croplandforbiofuelsCroprotaOonsWoodHarvest%usedforindustrialproducts%usedforcommercialbiofuels%usedforfuelwood

7SupportedbyDOE-SciDAC

LandUseHarmonizaGonDataset(LUHv2)

A B

C D

GlobalAgriculturalArea:HYDE3.2*andHYDE3.1

LUMIPExperimentalDesign

•  Remove20millionkm2forestover50yearsfromtop30%forestareagridcells,starOngfrom1850control

•  ControlledassessmentofcoupledmodelresponsetodeforestaOon

CESMMPI

1.IdealizedglobaldeforestaOon(GCM,Tier1)

Tair2m LAI

0C

Year Year

* indicates significant change at the 95% confidence level

No significant feedback in the CTRL simulations. With the HCF trigger PRECT↓

Chen et al., 2016; Chen et al., submitted

Representation of convective trigger alters land-cover change response

2.NoLULCCexperiments:Historicperiod1850-2015Coupledandland-only

• AssessimpactofLULCCinhistoricalperiodforwater,carbon,energyfluxesandclimate(C4MIP,LS3MIP)

• Assessland-onlyvscoupledresponsetohistoricLULCC(LS3MIP)• Assesshowland-atmospherecouplingstrengthmodulatesclimate,weather,extremesresponsetoLULCC(LS3MIP)

• RelevantfordetecOonanda;ribuOon(DAMIP)

CMIP6Historical

Land-onlyHistorical

CMIP6Historical

Land-onlyHistorical

Land management

Erb et al., GCB, 2016

~80% non-ice land area under land management

~25% non-ice land area undergone anthropogenic land-cover change

3.Landcoverchangevslandmanagementexperiments(Tier2)

Setofland-onlyhistoricsimulaOons(variantsofLMIP-Hist)withone-at-a-OmemodificaOonofparOcularaspectsoflandmanagement;Evaluateimpactoflanduseonfluxesofwater,energy,andcarbon

①  Year1700insteadof1850start②  NoLULCCchange③  Alternatelandusehistories④  NoshiaingculOvaOon⑤  Cropandpastureasunmanaged

grassland⑥  Cropswithcropmodelbutno

irrigaOon/ferOlizaOon⑦  NoirrigaOon⑧  NoferOlizaOon⑨  Nowoodharvest⑩  Nograzingonpastureland

⑩  NohumanfireigniOon/suppression11  Constant1850CO2(Ndep?)12  Constantclimate

LandUseChange ✗✗ ✗

| | Institute of Atmospheric and Climate Science

Present-day irrigation mitigates heat extremes

(Thiery et al., JGR 2017)

•  Only ~40% of irrigated water used by increased ET •  60% lost to runoff •  Very likely not realistic

Land-Use Scenario

Main Scenario SSP1-2.6 Afforest

SSP3-7 Deforest

SSP5-8.5 Weak Deforest

SSP1-2.6 ScenarioMIP Conc.-driven

SSP3-7 ScenarioMIP Conc.-driven

SSP5-8.5 C4MIP Emissions-driven

Land-Use Scenario

Main Scenario SSP1-2.6 Afforest

SSP3-7 Deforest

SSP5-8.5 Weak Deforest

SSP1-2.6 ScenarioMIP Conc.-driven

LUMIP Conc.-driven

SSP3-7 LUMIP Conc.-driven

ScenarioMIP Conc.-driven

SSP5-8.5 C4MIP Emissions-driven

BiogeophysicalclimateimpactsofLULCC;assesslandmanagementforregionalclimatemiGgaGon

AssesshowLULCCimpactdiffersatdifferentclimatechangeandCO2levels

Land-Use Scenario

Main Scenario SSP1-2.6 Afforest

SSP3-7 Deforest

SSP5-8.5 Weak Deforest

SSP1-2.6 ScenarioMIP Conc.-driven

LUMIP Conc.-driven

SSP3-7 LUMIP Conc.-driven

ScenarioMIP Conc.-driven

SSP5-8.5 LUMIP Emissions-driven

C4MIP Emissions-driven

BiogeophysicalclimateimpactsofLULCC;assesslandmanagementforregionalclimatemiGgaGon

AssesshowLULCCimpactdiffersatdifferentclimatechangeandCO2levels

FulleffectsofLULCCthroughbothbiogeophysandbiogeochemprocesses

Land-usechangeimpactmetricsExample:DayOmeversusnighzmeresponsetodeforestaOon

Lejeuneetal.,J.Clim,2017

SynthesispaperledbyEdouardDavinandDavidLawrence(sortof)

underway

WillformbasisforLULCCassessmentinILAMB

h;ps://cmip.ucar.edu/lumipLUMIPGoogleGroup(70members)

Subgridland-useGledatarequestLUMIPisrequesOngsub-gridinformaOonforfoursub-gridcategories(i.e.,Oles)forselectedvariablestopermitmoredetailedanalysisofland-useinducedsurfaceheterogeneity.Thefourcategoriesare:(1)Primaryandsecondaryland(2)Cropland(3)Pastureland(4)Urban

Selected Subgrid Variables (not the full list, see LUMIP website)

Biogeophysical variables tasLut – near-surface air temperature hussLut – near-surface specific humidity hflsLut – latent heat flux hfssLut – sensible heat flux rsusLut – surface upwelling shortwave (albedo) laiLut – leaf area index Bigoechemical variables, carbon stocks/fluxes gppLut – gross primary productivity nppLut – net primary productivity cSoilLut – carbon mass in soil pool cVegLut – carbon mass in vegetation cLitterLut – carbon mass in litter pool LULCC fraction changes fracInLut – fraction transferred into land-use type fracOutLut – fraction transferred out of LUT

LUMIP LUT vars requested for following expts •  CMIP6 Historical (coupled and land-only) •  ScenarioMIP •  C4MIP scenario expts •  LUMIP

STATUS Lut variables are included in latest CMOR tables versions

Gridcell

Glacier Lake

Landunit

Column

PFT

Urban Vegetated

Soil

ExampleaggregaOonontoLand-UseTilesforCLM

Crop

PFT1 PFT2 PFT3 PFT4 …

Unirrig Irrig Unirrig Irrig

Crop1 Crop1 Crop2 Crop2 …

Roof

Sun Wall

Shade Wall

Pervious

Impervious

TBD

MD HD

CLMGlingstructure

Gridcell

Glacier Lake

Landunit

Column

PFT

Urban Vegetated

Soil

ExampleaggregaOonontoLand-UseTilesforCLM

Crop

PFT1 PFT2 PFT3 PFT4 …

Unirrig Irrig Unirrig Irrig

Crop1 Crop1 Crop2 Crop2 …

Roof

Sun Wall

Shade Wall

Pervious

Impervious

TBD

MD HD

CLMGlingstructure

Pasture X

| | Institute of Atmospheric and Climate Science

Sub-grid impacts

28/04/2017 Wim Thiery 24

LUMIP/LUH2Timeline

•  2016:October,kickoffwebinar

•  2017through2018:ModelsimulaOons

–  Ideally,groupswouldrunland-onlysimulaOonfirstandbenchmarksimulated/imposedlandcoverOmeseries

–  AlsopreferredthatgroupsruntheidealizeddeforestaOonexptearly

•  2017March:BetaversionsofLUH2harmonizeddatasetsforSSPsreleased

•  2017Ongoing:Transientland-useandidealizeddeforestspotchecks

•  2017Fall:beginanalysis(coordinaOonthroughLUMIPSSG,starOngsummer2017,askgroupstoregisterinterestinanalyses)

•  2017Land-usechangeimpactsmetrics/benchmarkssynthesispapers

•  2018Summer:possibleLUMIPmeeOngtopresent/discusspapers/analysis–  AspenAGCI?

•  2018Fall:possiblejointLUMIP,C4MIP,LS3MIPmeeOng

–  a;achtoCRESCENDOmeeOnginSeptemberinParis?

•  2021IPCCAR6?

AnnualChangesinGlobalAgriculturalArea:HYDE3.2*andHYDE3.1

A B