Apricot Crop Survey 2016 Crop1 - Chelmer Foods€¦ · Microsoft Word - Apricot Crop Survey 2016...
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Malatya Apricot Crop Survey- 2016 Crop The Bloom-Frost Following a record breaking warm January and February the bloom started 2 weeks early in the first week of March. Several frosts during the week commencing 14 March have done significant damage, a further frost at the end of April has damaged the late blooms in orchards above 1400 meters. The crop has clearly been reduced due to frost in EVERY major growing area. There was not a single region or even village that was unaffected, the amount of damage varied from orchard to orchard rather than from region to region. The damage was worst in valleys and other frost pockets. In some orchards, the bottom half of the trees were empty and the top branches were near normal. In general the Kaba Asi were less damaged than the Haci Halil variety. In many orchards the Haci Halil were bare but the Kaba Asi were at 30% to 60% of full yield. All the above is consistent with a moderate rather than a hard freeze. There is still some shedding of frost damaged fruitlets and this may yet reduce the over all crop potential unless it stops soon. Post Frost Fruit Development The fruit is well advanced, most about the size of a golf ball. The weather post frost has been ideal for quality, cool and dry, there is virtually no speckling or hail damage so far, the fruit looks superb at this stage. CLEAN LARGE FRUIT AT 50% YIELD
Transcript of Apricot Crop Survey 2016 Crop1 - Chelmer Foods€¦ · Microsoft Word - Apricot Crop Survey 2016...
MalatyaApricotCropSurvey-2016Crop TheBloom-FrostFollowingarecordbreakingwarmJanuaryandFebruarythebloomstarted2weeksearlyinthefirstweekofMarch.Severalfrostsduringtheweekcommencing14Marchhavedonesignificantdamage,afurtherfrostattheendofAprilhasdamagedthelatebloomsinorchardsabove1400meters.ThecrophasclearlybeenreducedduetofrostinEVERYmajorgrowingarea.Therewasnotasingleregionorevenvillagethatwasunaffected,theamountofdamagevariedfromorchardtoorchardratherthanfromregiontoregion.Thedamagewasworstinvalleysandotherfrostpockets.Insomeorchards,thebottomhalfofthetreeswereemptyandthetopbrancheswerenearnormal.IngeneraltheKabaAsiwerelessdamagedthantheHaciHalilvariety.InmanyorchardstheHaciHalilwerebarebuttheKabaAsiwereat30%to60%offullyield.Alltheaboveisconsistentwithamoderateratherthanahardfreeze.Thereisstillsomesheddingoffrostdamagedfruitletsandthismayyetreducetheoverallcroppotentialunlessitstopssoon.PostFrostFruitDevelopmentThefruitiswelladvanced,mostaboutthesizeofagolfball.Theweatherpostfrosthasbeenidealforquality,coolanddry,thereisvirtuallynospecklingorhaildamagesofar,thefruitlookssuperbatthisstage.
CLEANLARGEFRUITAT50%YIELD
Giventhatapproximately85%ofthefruitwillcomefromorchardswitha10%to70%yield,sizingisexpectedtobelargeagain,mostlysize1through4andpricedifferentialsarelikelytoremainsmall.TightOrganicSupplyThelargeorganicgrowingvalleyfromAkacadagthroughtoDogansehirisoneofthelightestyieldingareas,andassuchwethinktherewillbeadisproportionatelyloworganicproductionthisyear,andpremiumsfororganicarelikelytobehigh.ProjectionsWithsuchamixedbag,wehaveusedanumberofmethodstocomeupwithourestimatefigure.Wehavemadecomparisonstolastyear,theyearbefore(actuallythelast30years).Thebelowchartshowswhatwebelievetheaverageyieldsareinalltheorchardswevisited,whichwerethelengthandbreadthofthegrowingregion.Severalhundredorchardswerevisited,manyglassesofteaweredrunkandopinionsoffarmers,tradersandexportersweretakenintoaccount.Ourassumptionsarebasedonamaximumbutneverachievedtheoreticalcroppotentialof240,000tons(Iknowit’samuchdebatedfigure,butitsnotthesolesourceofourestimate).Webelievethatthetreesareonaveragecurrentlycarryinganamountoffruitequalto44%oftheirmaximumpotential,andassuchthetotalcropwillbeintheregionof105,000tons.
Minimum Maximum Average2016EstCrop(tons)
93,360 115,200 104,280
Yield 39% 48% 43%
%oftotaltreesinMalatya
MinimumMaximum Average
10% 0% 10% - 2,400 1,20010% 11% 20% 2,640 4,800 3,72010% 21% 30% 5,040 7,200 6,12015% 31% 40% 11,160 14,400 12,78015% 41% 50% 14,760 18,000 16,38015% 51% 60% 18,360 21,600 19,98010% 61% 70% 14,640 16,800 15,72010% 71% 80% 17,040 19,200 18,1205% 81% 90% 9,720 10,800 10,2600% 91% 100% - - -
Total 93,360 115,200 104,280
Trees'yieldrange
TotalSupplyAndPriceExpectation
ExportsforAprilwereatthetopendofexpectationsat5,860tons,a17%increaseonlastyears5,007tons.Yeartodateexportsare64,354tons,a54%increasecomparedtolastyears41,831tonsforthesameperiod.Weexpecttoendtheyearwith75,000tonsexportsand5,000tonsdomesticconsumptionleavingacarryoveroflessthan5,000tonsofexportablefruit.Wedonotexpectadramaticchangeinpricesinthetransitiontonewcropaspricesalreadycorrected,andaresignificantlylowerthanthebeginningoftheseason.Commentsandenquiriesarewelcomeasalways.
ALONEFRUIT,THISHACIHALILTREESHOWSLESSTHAN10%YIELDAgrimaxLtd www.agrimax.com
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PRICEPERTONTHOUSANDTONSTotalCrop&Carryover andAveargePrices
TotalAvailableEst(Crop+Carryover) Average Price(WholeApricots)
