The Impact of Changing s Mobile Reality is Changing ... Embeddedness Digital convergence ......
Transcript of The Impact of Changing s Mobile Reality is Changing ... Embeddedness Digital convergence ......
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This presentation may not be distributed without permissionCopyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc.
David SmithCEO HBMG [email protected]
The Impactof Changing
Technologies
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Change, Uncertainty, and Complexity
Technology Acceleration
K-12 Science& Math Crisis
IntangibleCapital
Virtual Worlds
3 Billion New Capitalists
Demographics
Offshore Competition
Global TalentExplosion
Regional EconomicDislocation
Economic & Financial
English as 2nd
Russia - China
Economic Unions
Terrorism
Cyber Warfare
Pandemic
Flat Wages End of Moore’s LawHBMG Inc. Copyright
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Context
Current macroeconomic conditions are challenging
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How the World Has Changed
• Most businesses are global at launch
• Businesses are increasingly real time
• Convergence has become a way of life
• Science, product development, and product cycles are compressing
• The source of value has shifted for manufacturing
• Competencies, future capabilities, and “ultra tech”are the prime driver
• The traditional value chain is forever dead
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2001 – 2006
From 2 million to 20 million Chinese buying on-line goods
1984 – 1989
Height of the Cold War to the Wall comes down
What Can Happen in 5 Years?
1945 – 1949
War to Marshall Plan
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New Economic Superpowers in 2050?
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The Growth Of Complexity
LowerManagementComplexity
HigherManagementComplexity
DODweaponsystem
National AirTraffic ControlSystem
Telecom switch
Large-scalesimulation
DODmanagementinformationsystem
Enterpriseinformationsystems
Enterpriseapplication
Businessspreadsheet
Smallscientificsimulation
Embeddedautomotiveapplication Commercial
compiler
LowerTechnical
Complexity
HigherTechnical
Complexity
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Technology—Webster’s
• The science of the practical or
industrial arts
• Applied science
• A method of achieving a practical
purpose
• The totality of the means employed to
provide objects necessary for human
sustenance and comfort
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What is Technology?
“Application of knowledge to objectives”
—J. P. McTague, “Wielding a Three-
Edged Sword,” Federal Lab
Technology
Transfer: Issues and Policies (1988)
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The Limits of Technology
The laws of physics
The laws of software
The challenge of algorithms
The difficulty of distribution
The problems of design
The importance of organization
The impact of economics
The influence of politics
The limits of human imagination
Fundamental
HumanHBMG Inc. Copyright
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This presentation may not be distributed without permissionHBMG Inc. Copyright 2009
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Mega Trends to Consider…
• Digitization of all content (listening = getting!)
• Distribution is the default (just having a network won’t be
enough)
• Virtualization (location matters less and less)
• Niche-ization of Content & Lifestyles
• Mass-Personalization of media will become standard
• Democratization of Creation, & Peer Production
• A mature-azation of the entire value chain (but NOT to
the detriment of experts)
• “Godzilla-zation” of users/consumers
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The system of convergence areas
Convergence of devices
Convergence of technologies
Convergence of networks
Convergence of services
Convergence of markets
Convergence: The Concept
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Technology:
• Computers & Peripherals
• Semi-conductors
• Internet apps
• Software
• Internet devices
Telecom:
• Communication Equipment
- Service
- Providers:
• Telephone/
• Voice & Data
•Mobile
•Wireless/
• Voice & Data
Network:
•Networking/
• IP Networking
- Service
Providers:
• Internet Service Providers
•Broadband
• Satellite
•Broadcast Cable
Content:
•Media & New
•Media
•Advertising
• Printing, Publishing and Newspapers
Entertainment:
•Broadcasting
• Film
•Music
•Gaming
• Sports
Vertical Convergence with an Industry
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Design
Manufacturing
Infrastructure
Services
Devices
Software
Distribution
Content
Technology:
Computers & Computers &
PeripheralsPeripherals
SemiconductorsSemiconductors
Internet appsInternet apps
SoftwareSoftware
Internet devicesInternet devices
Telecom:
Communication Communication
EquipmentEquipment
Service Service
Providers:Providers:
Telephone/Telephone/
Voice & DataVoice & Data
Mobile Wireless/Mobile Wireless/
Voice & DataVoice & Data
Network:
Networking/Networking/
IP NetworkingIP Networking
Service Service
Providers:Providers:
ISP(s)ISP(s)
BroadbandBroadband
SatelliteSatellite
Broadcast Broadcast
CableCable
Content:
Media & Media &
New MediaNew Media
AdvertisingAdvertising
Printing, Printing,
Publishing & Publishing &
NewspapersNewspapers
Entertainment:
BroadcastingBroadcasting
FilmFilm
MusicMusic
GamingGaming
SportsSports
Horizontally Across Different Industry Sectors
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Convergence of Devices…the Most Visible…
Mobile phones turn into mobile multifunctional devices:
– Integrated FM radio
– Camera
– DVB-H on mobile phones
– Integrated WiFi
Personal Communications Devices– TV cards
– MP3 Devices
Interactive TV-sets– display a TV signal & computer data simultaneously,
watching TV and surfing Internet at the same time
Final stage – service / network neutral devices– Emphasis on programming equipment
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Today’s Mobile Reality is Changing
2 billion mobile phone users worldwide
– Historically communication devices
Mobile phones are no longer “phones”
– Multi-media devices
– Capture and consume
– Entertainment, information services
Digitalization, Miniaturization, Mobility, Connectivity, Communities
By 2010 there will be 3Bn users of “mobile devices”and 3Bn TV viewers Multi-media devices
People are spending more time with new media
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Digital Music Adapters
Wireless Gaming Adapters
Digital Video Adapters
Movies-on-DemandReceivers
Satellite Radio Receivers
“Fourth Generation”Set-top Boxes
Networked Storage Centers
Game Consoles
MP3 Players
Digital Cameras
Smart Displays
Digital Media Receivers Personal Video Recorders
Networked DVD Player Mobile Gaming Devices
Smart Phones
PDAs
Wireless CamerasWireless TV Monitors
Laptop PCs
Desktop PCs
802.11 Speakers
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101 100 10-1102
104
106
108
Number of chip components
Feature size (microns)
1010
1012
1018
1014
1016
10-2 10-3
Classical Age
Historical Trend
SIA Roadmap2010
CMOS
19952000
2005
1970
1980
1990
4oK
Quantum Age
77oK
295oK
Quantum State Switch
Scaling of Electronic Devices
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EmbeddednessThe Invisible Computer
EmbeddednessDigital convergence technologies will “form the invisible technical infrastructure for human actionanalogous to the visible infrastructure provided by buildings and cities.”
Embeddedness is driven by cost-effective computing, Moore’s Law, miniaturization, ubiquitous communication, and advanced materials and sensing devices.
In 2000, 98% of computing devices sold are embedded in products and are not apparent to the product’s user.
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Security
“May you live in
interesting times”
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“Interesting” Good
• Many products to choose from
• Rich set of features and functions
• Multiplatform solutions beginning to
appear
• Movement to Web and Cloud
• Changing TCO
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“Interesting” Not So Good
• High cost
• Different solutions for most devices
• Most not standards-based
• Unique, non-intuitive interfaces
• Significant training required
• Limited features and functionality at this time
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Why is Security Hard?
No system can be 100% secure
– Reality is risk mitigation, not risk avoidance
Difficult to prove good security
– Bad security gets proven for us!
Good security and no security can look the same
– How does one know how secure they are?
Many things to secure
– People, equipment, OS, network, Application Servers,
applications, phones, and databases
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Risk Management And Needed Security
Unacceptable RiskUnacceptable Risk
Acceptable RiskAcceptable Risk
Security engineering defines probabilitySecurity engineering defines probability
Probability of exploit
Imp
act
to
bu
sin
ess
LowLow HighHigh
HighHighB
usin
ess d
efi
nes
im
pa
ct
Bu
sin
ess d
efi
nes
im
pa
ct
Risk management drives risk to an acceptable level
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Industry Adopts Grid Technology
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Examples
Google Magic — The “Sort by Magic” in Google Reader feature suggests blog posts based on your Reader browsing history and feeds. Blending “Sort by Magic” with the “Popular” function, relevant, interesting and highly targeted information is brought to the end-user.
Mozilla Raindrop — The inbox is very democratic —in that every e-mail carries the same weight. Your Jet Blue coupon is just as important as an e-mail from your mother. Mozilla Raindrop fixes this problem through a hierarchical rating system that prioritizes your incoming mail so important information doesn’t get buried and lost.
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Even as grids take hold, the IT landscapeis changing rapidly…
Technology is rapidly being commoditized
Businesses are more willing and able to shop for IT services
In-house IT infrastructure is increasingly seen as complex and rigid
© Harvard Business Review
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The “Fat Pipe”
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Cloud Computing - a Disruptive New Paradigm
1990
A “cloud” is an IT service delivered to users that provides:• Simple user interface that automatically provisions IT resources
• Capacity on demand with massive scalability• New application service delivery models• Platform for next generation data centers• Development in the cloud, for the cloud
2015
Software as a Service
Utility Computing
Grid Computing
“Clouds will transform the information technology (IT) industry…profoundly change the way people work and companies operate.”
Cloud Computing
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Cloud Computing 'Platform as a service' (PaaS) Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) Software as a service (SaaS
� Public Clouds
� Application-centric cloud platforms
� Public clouds reduce corporate IT jobs and spend. CIOs
lead the charge. Private clouds become THE strategic
decision for enterprise IT
� Private Clouds
• Amazon spins off a private cloud. As part of this, Dave
says IBM gets a a cloud, Coté says Amazon partners with
IBM or HP (or Snorkle?) to do a container box cloud.
• VMWare ships a private cloud in a container.
� Hybrid cloud
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Competing in the CloudCompeting in the Cloud
- IBM spend $360 million to build a cloud computing data center
- Sun Micro, Dell
- IBM spend $360 million to build a cloud computing data center
- Sun Micro, Dell
- Google Apps for Free
- Amazon’s prices start at 20cents
- Google Apps for Free
- Amazon’s prices start at 20cents
- Microsoft's mantra is "software plus services"
- AT&T
- Microsoft's mantra is "software plus services"
- AT&T
- Google ally IBM & Salesforce.com
- HP's purchase of Opsware
- Google ally IBM & Salesforce.com
- HP's purchase of Opsware
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Pe
tab
yte
s/D
ay G
lob
al
• Mobile • Device to Device • Sensors • Entertainment• Smart Home• Distributed
Industrial• Autos/Trucks• Smart Toys
2012
ConvergedContent
Traditional Computation
Growth at the Edge of the Network
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Complexity
Punch Card
Computing
Mainframe/Midrange
Computing
Client/Server Computing
Internet/Network Computing
Ubiquitous Computing
Department Intra- Extra- Personal Anytime-Process Centered Enterprises Enterprises Anywhere
Peer-to-Peer
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TOLL
15.62 Gallons
27.33 Dollars
Thank You!
People to
Things
People to
People
Things to
Things
The Nature of Communications Has Been Changing...
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The Global Grid
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To Every Sensor is a Server
Processor
Data Storage
Communications
Rich variety of
sensors
Smart Dust
Microphone
Microstorage
(Areal density 100x’s CD)
Phone -PDA
Embedded
Biofluidics Chip
Robot
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Ubiquitous Computing
Laptops outsell desktops already
Handheld PCs are gaining market share
Appliances become smart
– Microprocessors in TVs, VCRs, refrigerators,
stoves, etc.
• As the profit margin on basic
hardware gets squeezed out,
smarts are the next competitive
area
Even your pet…
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Enabler—Just Another Computer Cycle?
Why Now?
1. Broadband Becoming Pervasive2. Internet-enabled Devices Becoming Pervasive3. Global Technology Innovation May Be at an All-time High.
Four Major Computing Cycles Over the Past 50 Years:
Mainframe Minicomputer PC PC Internet (Narrowband)
Now in the Most Profound Cycles Ever:
PC Internet (Broadband) Mobile Internet
Leading To:
Ubiquitous Computing (Invisible Computing)
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Take Away
Anytime Data – Real Time, Anytime and Anywhere: As we continue our long march into the world of Cloud Computing and Internet centric applications in 2010 I believe that real time information (data) will be the most important asset any business large or small can have.
The one thing that Moore’s Law and software development has taught us over the last 30 years is the more compute resource we have available the more we use
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Future of InfoTech
Enterprise and Grid Management
Service OrientedArchitectureSecurity
Operating Systems VirtualizationOpen Source
Communications
RoboticsSensor Feeds
Storage ServersDevelopmentEnvironment
Collaboration
VisualizationVirtual Reality Applications
Devices ISR Tools Search
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Final View on Convergence
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We are born to work and play
together in teams. But we have to
give enough of ourselves to let the
filaments connect.
Paul F. Levy, CEO
Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center
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The Three Cs of Collaboration Tools and Technology
Communication(IDEAS)
Collaboration(DATA)
Coordination(WORK)
Three Cs of Collaboration Tools
Communication(IDEAS)
Collaboration(DATA)
Coordination(WORK)
Three Cs of Collaboration Tools
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Challenge and Opportunity
• Rapid establishment of distributed teams in ever changing, complex world
• Growing transnational threats and opportunities require virtual, global, multidisciplinary teams
• Future teams need to be:
– secure
– fast and agile –re-task able, coordinated, precise
– decisive in a dynamic, complex, uncertain world
– knowledge superior
• Distributed, Collaborative (synchronous/asynchronous) analysis/decision support
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Collaboration Technologies
Source: David Smith
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A.I. Deep Search Intelligent Agents
Weak Signals
Inference Engines
XML
Ontologies
Taxonomics
Knowledge Bases
Knowledge Management
Life Casting
Life Logs
Knowledge Networks
Intelligent Marketplaces Group
Intelligence
Enterprise Minds
Group Minds
Emergent Groups
Market Places
Search Engines
Content Portals
Databases
File Servers
Websites
Enterprise Portals
Groupware
PIMs
P2P File Sharing
Mobile Technologies
Auctions
Wikis
IM
WeBlogs
Social Networks
Community Portals
SOCIAL MEDIAPeople
WEBInformation
Semantic WebKnowledge
Reed’s -Self Formation
MetawebDigital World
Speed of Connectivity — Social
Sp
eed
of
Co
nn
ecti
vit
y —
Info
rmati
on
al
Source: David Smith
Virtual Worlds
Massive Multiplayer
Games
Phone Calls
Conference Calls
Computer Conferencing
Evolving—Self Forming
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Convergence reduces costs and risks
SecurityInformation &
EventsSystems
Identity & Access Privileges
ComprehensiveSecurity &
Compliance
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Hierarchy of Needs
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2009
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Key Mega Trends for IT Info Sharing
Convergence and trend towards unified communications and user empowerment
– Consumerization is the most important component of this mega trend.
All IT around the globe is being impacted by this trend. IT development
will focus increasingly on consumers with less on government or
enterprises
– Mass collaboration on problems. Social networking and IT tools to
support that.
Globalization and increasing internationalization of IT and other Science and Technology
– US stockholders own most enterprise IT companies but most
engineering is overseas (expect more enterprise IT solutions from
overseas).
– Decreasing Intellectual Capital Advantage of the US
– Aging workforce in the US and other key Western nations
– Global competition for talent
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2009
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Key Mega Trends for IT Info Sharing
Increasing open development of software and hardware
– Embraced by all major IT companies and large numbers of programmers
– This trend is fueling a growing need for in-house programming talent
– Even proprietary code is built with open interfaces
Increasing pace of technology development and probability of disruption
– InfoTech, NanoTech and BioTech are building synergies off of each other
– Must assimilate new technologies fast
– Ugly fact: Our systems are in many ways subject to degradation, either
due to malicious activity or due to interdependencies of complex systems
1) These trends will impact us whether we like it or not.2) All of these trends underscore importance of agility.
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2009
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3 Web generations
“Technology overshoot” effects
What can I contribute?Participation
Information-Web
What I need to knowContext
Symantic Web
Access
World Wide Web
05 10 15AccessibleAccount managementBrand = QualityBroad user accessTransactions
ProgrammableCommunity ManagementPeers = QualityRich user interfaceInteractions
ProactiveIdentity managementNeed = QualityEnvironment as interfaceTacit interactions
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For the rest of the world, this is the Internet
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2009
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The Flip-Flop is Here!
Most technology in the hands of consumers
today –mobile phones, broadband networking, computers and printers– all
started out in business applications.
• NOW, individual
consumers will bring the technology back into the workplace.
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This presentation may not be distributed without permissionHBMG Inc. Copyright 2009
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IT Trends
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Mainframe/Midrange
Client Server
Ubiquitous
Appliances
Punch Card
Network
HBMG Inc. Copyright
2009