SK이노베이션 3Q16 국문 실적발표자료...
Transcript of SK이노베이션 3Q16 국문 실적발표자료...
2017. 2. 3
4Q 2016 Earnings Release
SK innovation
This presentation contains forward-looking statements with respect
to financial conditions, results of operations and business of SK Innovation,
and plans and objectives of the management of SK Innovation.
Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about
SK Innovation’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements.
Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks,
uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results or
performance of SK Innovation to be materially different from any future results
or performance expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.
Financial results for 4Q16 are subject to change according to the outside
independent auditors’ review.
Disclaimer
Agenda
4Q 2016 Financial Results
4Q 2016 Business Highlights
2017 Business Outlook (Refining/Petrochemical)
2016 Dividend Plan
Petrochemical M&A
Q&A
Appendix
(Unit: bn KRW) 4Q16 3Q16 QoQ 2016 2015
Sales 10,079.1 9,703.0 +376.1 39,520.5 48,356.3
Operating Profit 849.4 414.9 +434.5 3,228.6 1,979.6
EBITDA 1,120.7 642.4 478.3 4,180.1 2,931.1
Non-Operating
Profit △497.8 15.9 △513.7 △805.0 △325.5
Pre-Tax Income 351.6 430.8 △79.2 2,423.6 1,654.1
3
Sales & Operating Profit
* 2015 financial data reflect reclassified discontinued business operations.
4
Balance Sheet
(Unit: bn KRW) 2016 2015 Change from
FY 2015
Assets 32,581.6 31,359.8 +1,221.8
- Current assets 14,988.1 12,842.1 +2,146.0
Liabilities 14,276.3 14,313.5 △37.2
- Debt
Net Debt
6,569.7
901.3
8,174.8
3,515.2
△1,605.1
△2,613.9
Shareholders’
Equity 18,305.3 17,046.3 +1,259.0
- Paid-in Capital 468.6 468.6 -
Debt/Equity 78% 84% △6%p
Agenda
4Q 2016 Financial Results
4Q 2016 Business Highlights
2017 Business Outlook (Refining/Petrochemical)
2016 Dividend Plan
Petrochemical M&A
Q&A
Appendix
6
Refining – Refining Margins
Crude price rose as OPEC and
Non-OPEC agreed on output cut
Refining margin improved on
stronger overall product cracks
Dubai
‘16.3Q: 43.2$/B → ‘16.4Q: 48.3$/B (+5.1$/B)
Gasoline Crack
‘16.3Q: 9.0$/B → ‘16.4Q: 12.0$/B (+3.0$/B)
Diesel Crack
‘16.3Q: 11.0$/B → ‘16.4Q: 12.0$/B (+1.0$/B)
FO Crack
‘16.3Q: △6.2$/B → ‘16.4Q: △3.9$/B (+2.3$/B)
($/Bbl)
Dubai Crude oil
Diesel Crack
Gasoline Crack
($/Bbl)
$22.8 (‘16.1.21)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
14.01 14.04 14.07 14.10 15.01 15.04 15.07 15.10 16.01 16.04 16.07 16.10
0
5
10
15
20
25
14.01 14.04 14.07 14.10 15.01 15.04 15.07 15.10 16.01 16.04 '16.07 16.10
16.12
16.12
7
(Unit : Bn. KRW)
Operating profit increased on
stronger refining margin and
inventory gains from higher crude
price
Seasonal demands for middle
distillates and rising crude price to
support refining margin in Q1
Refining – Performance Analysis
+395.4
91.9
+237.5 △73.1
651.7
Margin Others 3Q16 OP
4Q16 OP
Inventory Effect
S’GRM
‘16.3Q: 5.1$/B → ‘16.4Q: 6.7$/B (+1.6$/B)
8 8
Olefin spreads showed weakness
Ethylene spreads softened with crackers
returning from T/A and weaker
downstream demands
PE spreads moderately weakened on
reduced T/A schedule
Aromatics weakened moderately
PX spreads weakened on new start-up
schedules
BZ spreads widened on strong SM
demands from China
Petrochemical – Product Spreads
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Naph Ethylene-Naph PE-Naph
0
200
400
600
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
BZ-Naph PX-Naph
PE
($/Ton)
PX
Naph
Ethylene
($/Ton)
BZ
9 9
Decrease in operating profit
on planned turnarounds and
one-off expenses
Favorable spreads to continue on
strong downstream demands
Petrochemical – Performance Analysis
(Unit : Bn. KRW)
Margin Others 3Q16
OP
4Q16
OP Volume
+ 3.7
△15.2
△ 27.6 215.4
176.3 Turnaround : September ~ October
Ethylene (670KTA), Propylene (345KTA)
Ethylene : Healthy downstream demands
and turnarounds expected within region
PX : Robust PTA and Polyester demands
Lubricants – Base Oil Spreads
Despite stable supply and demand,
base oil spreads narrowed on
rising crude prices,
0
25
50
75
100
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
($/Bbl)
150SN
Gas Oil
150SN – Gas Oil
150SN - Gas Oil
‘16.3Q: 25.2$/B → ‘16.4Q: 19.5$/B
Spreads expected to gradually
recover on tight supply and demand
Lubricants – Performance Analysis
Operating profit decreased on
narrowed margin from rising crude
price
OP OP
3Q16 Margin Volume Others 4Q16
(Unit : Bn. KRW)
△44.6
+16.5 △2.5 86.4
117.0
Continue to improve profitability
through maximizing sales and global
optimization
12
E&P Business
3Q16 4Q16
Despite sales increase from higher
crude and gas prices,
Operating profit decreased
slightly due to operating and
depreciation expenses
Impairment loss incurred
non-operating expenses
: 314.1 Bn KRW
Sales 139.7 150.5
Average daily production 61 62
- Peru 88 32 32
- Peru 56 21 21
- Vietnam15-1 5 6
- SK E&P America 3 3
Oil Portion (%) 34% 34%
3Q16
OP Sales Change Cost Effect Others
4Q16
OP
(Unit : Bn KRW, 1000 BOE/D)
Operating Profit (Q-o-Q) (Unit: Bn KRW)
36.6
△16.3
△2.3 28.8
+10.8
13
I/E Materials Business
13
‘16. 4Q Revenue 49.2 billion won
QoQ △25%
‘16. 4Q EBITDA 16.4 billion won
QoQ △48%
Profit decreased on temporary
sales drop
I/E Business to continue its growth
on higher demands from expanding
global EV market
(Unit : Bn. KRW)
262
311 326 341
176
566 598 614
655
492
0
200
400
600
800
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
EBIDTA 매출액
(Bn. KRW) 2015 2016 증감
Revenue 208.2 236.0 +13%
EBITDA 83.2 114.2 +37%
Revenue
Agenda
4Q 2016 Financial Results
4Q 2016 Business Highlights
2017 Business Outlook (Refining/Petrochemical)
2016 Dividend Plan
Petrochemical M&A
Q&A
Appendix
15
Sound refining margin to continue
on healthy demands and limited
capacity additions
[Unit: Mil. b/d]
Capacity additions vs. Demand growth
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2015 2016 2017(E) 2018(E)
Net Capacity Additions Demand Growth
Crack Outlook
5
15
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Range('12~'16) '16년 '17년Avg.(E)
5
15
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Range('12~'16) '16년 '17년Avg.(E)
Diesel Crack Gasoline Crack
[Unit: $/Bbl]
[Diesel]
Higher regional demands to outweigh
concerns over Chinese exports
[Gasoline]
To remain flat on higher US inventory
level, despite resilient demand growth
(Source : IEA, Company Est.)
2017 Business Outlook – Refining
0
1,000
2,000
2016 2017 2018 2019
Capacity Addition Demand Growth
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2016 2017 2018 2019
Capacity Addition Demand Growth
16
Ethylene spread to show
moderate adjustments on delays
and cancellations of scheduled
capacity additions
Despite start-ups of large facilities,
robust PX spreads to continue on
strong demands
Strong polyester demands (YoY 5%)
Chinese self-sufficiency to stay
below 50%
(Source : IHS)
Possibilities of delays/cancellations
from Chinese CTO/MTO
Full impact from US ECCs in 2018
(Unit : KTA) (Unit : KTA)
PX Supply & Demand (Global / Net)
PX Supply & Demand (China / Net)
Ethylene Supply & Demand (Global / Net)
(Unit : KTA)
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
2014-01-03 2015-01-03 2016-01-03
Ethane Coal Naphtha
2014 2015 2016
Price Trends of Feedstocks
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2016 2017 2018 2019
Naptha US Ethane
CTO/MTO Demand Growth
2017 Business Outlook – Petrochemical
Agenda
4Q 2016 Financial Results
4Q 2016 Business Highlights
2017 Business Outlook (Refining/Petrochemical)
2016 Dividend Plan
Petrochemical M&A
Q&A
Appendix
18
Unit : KRW 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Ordinary 2,500 3,200 3,200 - 3,200 4,800
Extra 300 - - - 1,600 1,600
Total DPS 2,800 3,200 3,200 - 4,800 6,400
Total Dividends 261.0 bn 298.3 bn 298.3 bn - 447.4 bn 596.5 bn
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Extra
1,600
Extra
300
2,800
3,200
4,800
No
Dividend
3,200
Extra
1,600
6,400
2016 Dividend Plan
Agenda
4Q 2016 Financial Results
4Q 2016 Business Highlights
2017 Business Outlook (Refining/Petrochemical)
2016 Dividend Plan
Petrochemical M&A
Q&A
Appendix
Petrochemical M&A – Dow Chemical’s EAA Business
Target : Dow Chemical EAA Business
- EAA production facilities (US Texas, Spain)
- EAA/Ionomer technologies, trademarks, etc.
Acquisition ultra high-pressure and
high acidity technologies
Downstream portfolio expansion 1
2
3 Marketing synergy with existing products
“Acquiring technologies and products to
enter high value-added packaging market ”
Overview
Strategic Direction
EAA (Ethylene Acrylic Acid)
Laminated Tube Aseptic Packaging
- Beverage, Meat - Tooth paste, Cosmetic
EAA Global Market Size
North America
52.2 KTA
Europe
37.6 KTA China
16.0 KTA
Japan
10.7 KTA
Others
26.0 KTA
EAA :
143 KTA (2016)
[Source : CMR, 2016(F)]
Premium packaging adhesive (Adhesive Copolymer)
• Global Market Size
143 KTA (2016)
→ 2~3% annual growth
(7% in China)
• Dow Chemical is one of
the dominant players in
market.
Agenda
4Q 2016 Financial Results
4Q 2016 Business Highlights
2017 Business Outlook (Refining/Petrochemical)
2016 Dividend Plan
Petrochemical M&A
Q&A
Appendix
Agenda
4Q 2016 Financial Results
4Q 2016 Business Highlights
2017 Business Outlook (Refining/Petrochemical)
2016 Dividend Plan
Petrochemical M&A
Q&A
Appendix
1. Business Performance
2. Utilization Rate – Petroleum/Petrochemical Plants
Appendix
(Unit: Bn KRW) SK
Innovation
SK
Energy*
SK
Global
Chemical
SK
Lubricants
4Q
Total
Sales 222.2 7,256.1 1,939.5 661.3 10,079.1
Operating Profit △65.0 651.7 176.3 86.4 849.4
Non-operating profit △387.5 △142.6 33.1 △0.8 △497.8
Pre-tax Income △452.5 509.1 209.4 85.6 351.6
24
1. Business Performance (excluding intercompany transactions)
* SK Energy (including SKTI and SKIPC quarterly results)
Petrochemical Plant
Petroleum Plant
25
2. Utilization Rate – Petroleum/Petrochemical Plants
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
CDU 76% 70% 77% 83% 83% 84% 89% 85% 90% 84% 84% 83%
Ulsan 89% 80% 84% 89% 90% 86% 93% 86% 92% 85% 85% 91%
Incheon 37% 39% 60% 66% 67% 78% 77% 81% 83% 81% 81% 58%
HOU 92% 92% 99% 100% 83% 81% 100% 100% 91% 98% 98% 100%
#1 RFCC 100% 54% 81% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
#2 RFCC 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 58%
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
NCC 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 92% 100% 83% 95%
PE 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 98% 98% 84% 72%
PP 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 86% 78%
PX 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 89% 100% 90%