Renewals – (half) the hidden side of CapEx Presented to the Electricity Network Asset Management...

Renewals – (half) the hidden side of CapEx

Presented to the Electricity Network Asset Management Summit, Wellington, November 2007

by Phil Caffyn from Utility Consultants Ltd.www.utilityconsultants.co.nz

http://www.utilityconsultants.co.nz/

www.utilityconsultants.co.nz 2

Disclaimer• This presentation has been prepared primarily for the

Conferenz ENAMS 2007 and is not to be relied upon by event participants or any other person as professional advice.

• This presentation has been compiled at the invitation of Conferenz. Neither Conferenz nor its officers or its employees take any responsibility for the factual accuracy of this presentation, nor for any opinions, views or biases in this presentation.

• Utility Consultants Ltd as the author of this presentation shall not be liable in any way whatsoever for any action or failure to act based on the content of this presentation.


Scope of application• This presentation has been prepared primarily for an

electricity lines audience, with examples drawn from that sector.

• However the principles of CapEx and many of the comments about regulatory price control will be applicable to other network infrastructure sectors such as gas, water, sewage, drainage, roads and rail.


Presentation topics• What actually is renewal.

• The other half of the hidden side of CapEx.

• Some context for the renewal activity.

• Why should assets be renewed.

• When should assets be renewed.

• Accounting for renewal – keeping the CFO happy.

• Justifying renewal – keeping the regulator happy.

• Some practical aspects of renewal.

• Three things to take away.

• More information.


What actually is renewal


What actually is renewal• Renewal is the replacement of a non-consumable

component with a non-consumable component of

equivalent functionality (usually capacity).

• Two key criteria for renewal...

• Must involve a non-consumable component.

• Must not increase functionality.

• Table on the next page illustrates the renewal concept

using an overhead line.


What actually is renewal

Activity Description Why it is or isn’t renewal

Replacing a blown fuse. Maintenance Not renewal because a consumable component has been replaced.

Replacing a frayed conductor with a similar size conductor.

Renewal Renewal because it meets both criteria – non-consumable component replaced with a non-consumable component of equivalent functionality.

Replacing a frayed conductor with a bigger conductor.

Up-sizing Not renewal because the functionality of the asset has been altered (more capacity).

Adding a new length of line to reach new a customer.

Extension Not renewal because the functionality of the asset has been altered (more length).

Replacing an existing line with cable.

OHUG Not renewal because the functionality of the asset has been altered (more pretty).

Inserting a recloser halfway along a line.

Reliability enhancement

Not renewal because the functionality of the asset has been altered (more reliable).


The other half of thehidden side of CapEx


The other half of the hidden side• As set out in the previous table, there are five broad

types of CapEx…

• Renewal.

• Up-sizing.

• Extension.

• Overhead to underground conversion (OHUG).

• Reliability enhancements.

• Each of these different types of CapEx has different

characteristics and arises in different circumstances.

• Following chart indicates these circumstances and

tries to apply some easily understood terms to those

circumstances…


The other half of the hidden side

Existing asset

Condition

Service capability hasdeclined to below an

acceptable level(“too sick”)

Insufficient capacityto meet demand

(“too thin”)

Cannot physicallyreach new customer

(“too short”)

Pressure to replacelines with cables

(“too ugly”)

Reliability doesn’t meet requirements(“too unreliable”)

Required modeOf CapEx

Renewal

Up-sizing

Extension

OHUG

Reliabilityenhancement

Hidden

Obvious

The hidden aspect is the important bit of this argument.


The other half of the hidden side• As indicated the other half of the hidden side of CapEx

is up-sizing.

• Up-sizing is replacing a non-consumable component

with a non-consumable component of greater

functionality (usually capacity, but sometimes

voltage).

• So why are renewal and up-sizing called “the hidden

side of CapEx” ??

• Because they can be deferred or avoided, usually with

no immediately obvious consequences but often with

catastrophic eventual consequences.


The other half of the hidden side• In contrast extensions cannot be avoided because a

physical connection between the existing network and

the new customer must be provided.

• With renewals and up-sizing the physical connections

are already in place and the electricity just keeps on

flowing.

• So it’s very easy to overlook the deteriorating asset

condition and the diminished security headroom as

long as the electricity keeps flowing - afterall how

many of us have said something like “sure we can get

another winter (or summer) out of those cables”.


The other half of the hidden side• When the total CapEx budget is fixed and new

customers are wanting connection (extensions), guess

which modes of CapEx take the hit ??

• This deterioration in asset condition and diminished

headroom was identified as a key cause of the

widespread outages in Queensland during the storms

in January 2004.

• Anyway that’s enough on up-sizing - let’s get back to

the main theme of renewals.

• Pick here to talk some more about up-sizing.


Some context for therenewal activity


Some context• Most commentators agree that infrastructural assets

are in need of serious renewal spending to maintain

service levels, and in some sectors, to avoid

catastrophic failure.

• Recent infrastructure scorecard results…

• United States - D overall.

• Australia - C+ overall.

• South Africa – D+ overall.

• New Zealand – C overall.

• Little reason to conclude that other countries would

be any better.


Some context• It is acknowledged that in some (perhaps many) areas

the predominant CapEx mode will be up-sizing,

however the estimated cost of global renewals over

the next 5 years alone runs into trillions of dollars.

• So the context for renewals is the urgent need to

renew significant percentages of infrastructure across

most sectors in many countries.

• For more insights on the specific issues of improving

CapEx processes, pick here.


Why should assets be renewed


Why should assets be renewed• Two reasonably succinct answers to this…

• Because eventually assets cease to deliver an acceptable

level of service.

• Some classes of assets either fail catastrophically or

create dangerous situations.

• This is obviously distinct from assets that need to be

up-sized, however there will still be many low-growth

areas where the predominant CapEx mode will need to

be renewal ie. assets are wearing out rather than

becoming too small – refer to the model on the next

page…


Why should assets be renewed

Prevailing load growth

Location of demand growth

Lo Hi

Within existing network footprint

Outside of existing network

footprint

Quadrant 4

· CapEx will be an even mix of both extensions to reach new customers and then up-sizing to supply that demand through existing upstream assets .

Quadrant 3

· CapEx will be dominated by extensions because load growth is occurring beyond the reach of existing assets, and then maybe some up-sizing to supply this additional demand through existing upstream assets.

Quadrant 1

· CapEx will be dominated by renewals because assets will wear out before they get “too small”.

Quadrant 2

· CapEx will be dominated by up-sizing because assets become “too small” before they wear out.

Emphasis of this presentation on renewals restricts the argument to this quadrant.


When should assets be renewed


When should assets be renewed• The purest theoretical answer would be “immediately

before the asset ceases to deliver an acceptable level

of service”.

• In practice it depends on the following factors…

• How critical is it to avoid service levels declining to an

unacceptable level.

• How critical is it to avoid catastrophic failure.

• How critical is it to avoid discarding unconsumed

component life.

• Following chart illustrates many of the above

principles.


When should assets be renewed

Service level

X

SL(X) where X=f(x1, x2 … xn)· Probably reflects well known

distribution such as Weibull or Erlang.· Possible that 2 or 3 parameters will

dominate· May use time as a proxy.· Likely to be complex and non-linear

Minimum acceptable service level· Safety· Regulatory· Customer expectations· Component characteristics

This is about the right X to renew unless breakdown is acceptable

Depending on how unacceptable the risk of breakdown is we may want to renew somewhere back here

This area between the curves reflects the factor of safety involved, but also reflects unconsumed life which is discarded, and which is a cost to the organisation


When should assets be renewed• Most significant feature of the curve is that the

decline in service level is probabilistic … although we

might be able to say that a certain percentage of

assets will cease to perform (or even fail) in the next

year, it is hard to say exactly which individual assets

will fail because we are unlikely to know the exact

shape of the curve and how far along it we are for

each individual asset.

• This suggests that a large part of asset renewal is

about risk and risk avoidance, and further suggests

that avoiding service level lapses or asset failures is a

key driver of prioritising renewals.


When should assets be renewed• A risk approach lends itself to some rules of thumb for

renewals (and indeed asset inspections)...

• Assets that supply many customers or single large

customers should be renewed sooner rather than later to

avoid service interruptions, whilst assets that supply only

a few customers could be run to breakdown.

• Assets that could represent a safety hazard should be

renewed sooner rather than later to avoid death, injury or

damage, whilst assets that don’t present a safety issue

could possibly be run to failure.

• Emerging conclusion is that assets that are critical to

either customer service or safety should be renewed

sooner rather than later.


When should assets be renewed• Most utilities will have some sort of asset inspection

records that will have categorised assets by condition

and/or expected remaining life like this.

Condition Condition description Number

A Almost certain to fail at any time

B Could fail within 2 years

C Could fail within 5 years

D Likely to last another 10 years

E Likely to last another 20 years

F Almost certain to last more than 20 years


When should assets be renewed• The following 2x2 matrix depicts the outcomes of

condition assessment decisions...

Assessed condition

Sound Unsound asset incorrectly

assessed as sound

Sound asset correctly assessed

as sound

Unsound

Unsound asset correctly assessed

as unsound

Sound asset incorrectly assessed as

unsound

Unsound Sound

Actual condition


When should assets be renewed• In an ideal world we would obviously be in either of the

green quadrants.

• In the real world, however, there is a distinct possibility

of straying into the yellow or red quadrants.

• The risks associated with the yellow and red quadrants

have different natures and characteristics…

• In the yellow quadrant the risk is one of renewing too soon,

and the risk tends to be financial and regulatory (renewal

deemed inefficient, exclude from RAV).

• In the red quadrant the risk is one of renewing too late,

and the risk tends to be physical (service failure and

safety).


When should assets be renewed• If we merge the 6 condition categories and the 2x2

matrix we get something like this…

Assessed condition

Actual condition

Category A assets tend to be in very poor condition, hence very low chance of an unsound asset being incorrectly assessed as sound. The risk of unnecessary renewal is therefore low.

Category B assets tend to be in a slightly better condition, so there is an increasing chance of a sound asset being incorrectly assessed as unsound. The risk of unnecessary renewal starts to increase.

Category C assets tend to be in average condition, so there is a distinct chance of a sound asset being incorrectly assessed as unsound. The risk of unnecessary renewal starts to increase further.

Category D assets tend to be in good condition, so there is still a high chance of a sound asset being incorrectly assessed as unsound. The risk of unnecessary renewal is still high.

Category E assets tend to be in very good condition, so the chances of a sound asset being incorrectly assessed as unsound decline. The risk of unnecessary renewal also starts to decline.

Category F assets tend to be in excellent condition, so the chances of a sound asset being incorrectly assessed as unsound are very low. The risk of unnecessary renewal is also very low.


When should assets be renewed• This gives us a reasonably practical tool for

prioritising renewals based on the chances of

incorrectly assessing an assets condition.

• As we’ve seen, the categories of assets that are most

likely to be incorrectly assessed are the Category C

and D assets, and it is probably better to err on the

side of renewing rather than not renewing.

• However this simple approach should enable the bulk

of obviously unsound assets to be renewed with

minimal risk of unnecessary renewal.


Accounting for renewal –keeping the CFO happy


Accounting for renewal• Key aspect of accounting in any business is making

the distinction between costs that can fully expensed

and costs that must be capitalised.

• On one hand there are seemingly good arguments for

expensing as much renewal work as possible, and on

the other hand there are seemingly good arguments

for capitalising as much as possible.

• Depending on which outcome is most desirable, the

definition of “consumable” might be distorted which

tends to strike right at the heart of renewals.

• The table on the following page sets out some of the

likely outcomes …


Accounting for renewalAttribute Bias toward

expensingBias toward capitalising

Paper value of assets

Decline because accounting depreciation is not offset by renewals.

Increase because accounting depreciation is being more than offset by renewals.

Funding of depreciation

Insufficient funds gathered to fund renewals.

Excessive gathering of funds to fund renewals (the Rates Inquiry indicates that some Councils may be doing this).

Future renewals Possible unnecessary future renewals if renewals have been incorrectly recorded as maintenance in the asset register.

Possible insufficient future renewals if maintenance has been incorrectly recorded as renewals in the asset register.

Confidence in the asset data

Declines. Declines.


Accounting for renewalAttribute Bias toward

expensingBias toward capitalising

Tax Increased expenses leads to lower profit and hence reduced tax.

Reduced expenses leads to higher profit and hence increased tax.

Asset value implications

Increases the asset value less than it should.

Increases the asset value more than it should.

Return on assets Will probably decrease the return, but will depend on whether the increased asset value reduces the return faster than the increased profit increases the return.

Will probably decrease the return, but will depend on whether the increased asset value reduces the return faster than the increased profit increases the return.


Accounting for renewal• There is also the dual approach of capitalising work

for accounting purposes but also expensing work for

tax purposes.

• I’m not a tax expert, but I do believe IRD don’t like

this approach.


Justifying renewal –keeping the regulator happy


Justifying renewal• Regulators generally establish a pipes or wires tariff

by using a building block approach.

• This approach considers six key building blocks or

elements of a business’ costs…

• Efficient OpEx.

• Efficient CapEx.

• Return on capital.

• Depreciation.

• Tax.

• Revaluation gains (claw-back of revenue).

• This discussion needs to focus on four of these

elements.


Justifying renewal• First element is efficient CapEx.

• Unnecessary renewal of sound assets obviously

increases the forward CapEx spend which requires an

increased tariff to recover.

• Hence there will be regulatory pressure to eliminate

unnecessary renewals – this is a long story which is

discussed at length in “Getting the CapEx right in the

infrastructure sectors” (available on request).

• This obviously becomes problematic when there is

pressure to begin excluding renewal of obviously

unsound assets from the efficient CapEx spend.


Justifying renewal• Second element is return on capital.

• Putting aside the on-going WACC debate (which took a

turn for the better in the recent draft paper on Vector

and Powerco’s gas businesses), we need to ensure

that the RAV correctly reflects the capital tied up.

• There is always the risk that weakly justified renewals

(or any other weakly justified CapEx) will be excluded

from the RAV.

• The effect is that a return will be made on less than

the full amount of funds tied up.


Justifying renewal• Third element is depreciation.

• If depreciation is understated, insufficient revenue will

be gathered to fund future renewals (the recent Rates

Inquiry suggests that some Councils might be doing

the opposite).

• Building on the previous issue, if funds spent cannot

be rolled into the RAV the calculated depreciation will

be less than it should be.

• Result is that the depreciation expense won’t be fully

recovered.


Justifying renewal• Fourth element is revaluation gains.

• If renewals are not correctly rolled into the RAV, there

is the possibility that future asset valuations will be

deemed to include a significant revaluation gain.

• This revaluation gain may be treated as revenue and

clawed back from the building block model.


Justifying renewal• So it seems that a key part of keeping the regulator

happy is to have robustly justified renewals.

• Given the obvious tension between an infrastructure

owners need to maximise profit and a regulators need

to limit tariffs there will always be some argument

over exactly which renewals are genuinely required

and which are not.

• It is therefore necessary to adopt approaches to

compiling renewals that the regulator can take

confidence in and that minimises the scope for

dispute.

• Two possible approaches include…


Justifying renewal• An outcome-based approach such as the IQI method

used by OFGEM for the gas and electricity price

determinations in the UK.

• This approach rewards the owner for submitting a

CapEx estimate that is close to the regulator’s

estimate by allowing an increased revenue take.

• Concept is simple, but the details are rather complex –

details are in recent OFGEM gas and electricity papers.


Justifying renewal• An input-based approach such as PAS 55-1:2004 which

has become an expected way of doing business in the

UK electricity and gas sectors.

• PAS 55-1:2004 is the publicly available specification

for asset management in sectors whose performance

depends heavily on fixed assets.

• Regulators are taking increasing confidence from

independent accreditation to PAS 55-1.

• Pick here for more info on PAS 55-1.


Some practical aspects of renewal


Some practical aspects of renewal• So far we’ve covered a lot of fine sounding theory, but

what are some practical aspects of renewal that can

be applied on a daily basis ??

• Make a clear and reasonable distinction between

consumable and non-consumable components so that we

adequately distinguish renewals from maintenance. This

distinction may need to be defensible in accounting,

regulatory and tax contexts as well as engineering terms.

• Understand that renewals is a discipline than involves

concepts such as probability, uncertainty and risk, but

most importantly that the risk profile is generally highly

asymmetric.


Some practical aspects of renewal• Understand what generic approach to renewals is best

suited to various categories of asset condition in terms of

balancing the risks of service lapse, asset failure and

minimising life-cycle costs.

• Correctly account for renewals by ensuring they are

rolled into the RAV.

• Understand that renewals will be an element of CapEx

that will always be under close regulatory scrutiny, and

must therefore be rigorously justified in a way that gives

the regulator confidence and minimises the chances of

being second-guessed.


Three things to take away


Three things to take away• Clearly distinguish between maintenance and

renewals.

• For assets in poor condition that could result in either

significant service lapses or safety issues, consider

erring on the side of renewal.

• Ensure renewals are justified as rigorously as possible.


More information


More information

• Phone +64-7-8546541

• Mobile +64-21-606670

• Email [email protected]

• Skype philcaffyn

• Web www.utilityconsultants.co.nz

• Web www.capex.cjb.net

mailto:[email protected]


More information• Slide shows on similar issues…

• Implementing the UK asset management specification PAS 55-1:2004 in the infrastructure sector. Request

• Getting the CapEx right in the infrastructure sectors. Request

• Setting service levels for utility networks. Request

• Tariff control of pipes & wires utilities – where is it heading. Request

mailto:[email protected]?subject=Request%20PAS%2055%20slide%20show


More information• Visit Utility Consultants library to request other slide

shows, monographs and research reports.

• Visit Utility Consultants specialist CapEx website for more insights.

Renewals – (half) the hidden side of CapEx Presented to the Electricity Network Asset Management...

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Transcript of Renewals – (half) the hidden side of CapEx Presented to the Electricity Network Asset Management...