Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. 43192
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Report No. 43192 Pakistan Infrastructure Implementation Capacity Assessment (PIICA) Discussion Paper Series: Technical Note 7 DEMAND SUPPLY GAP ANALYSIS November 2007 Aized H. Mir, Sohail Abidi, Amer Z. Durrani South Asia Sustainable Development Unit (SASSD) Document of the World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
Transcript of Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. 43192
Report No. 43192 Pakistan Infrastructure Implementation Capacity Assessment (PIICA) Discussion Paper Series: Technical Note 7
DEMAND SUPPLY GAP ANALYSIS
November 2007
Aized H. Mir, Sohail Abidi, Amer Z. Durrani
South Asia Sustainable Development Unit (SASSD) Document of the World Bank
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DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP ANALYSIS
November 2007
South Asia Sustainable Development Unit (SASSD)
Document of the World Bank
Cover art credit: Aized H. Mir
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The discussion paper series were prepared as a part of the Pakistan Infrastructure Implementation Capacity Assessment (PIICA) study and comprise of the following technical notes. Technical Note 1: Development of the Construction Industry –A Literature Review
Technical Note 2: Local Stakeholders’ Perception Survey
Technical Note 3: Foreign Stakeholders’ Perception Survey
Technical Note 4: Business Environment and Cost of Doing Business
Technical Note 5: Purchase Price Review in the Infrastructure Industry
Technical Note 6: A Review of Allocations and Expenditures in the Public Sector
Technical Note 8: International Case Studies – UAE, CHINA and MALAYSIA
Technical Note 7: Demand – Supply Gap Analysis
Technical Note 9: Local Case Studies
Technical Note 10: Response to International and Local Bids
Technical Note 11: Focus Group Discussions
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Discussion Papers are published to communicate the results of the World Bank’s work to
the development community with the least possible delay. The typescript manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally edited texts. Some sources cited in the paper may be informal documents that are not readily available.
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank and its affiliated organizers, or those of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Acknowledgements are due to the World Bank core team comprising Amer Zafar Durrani (Task Team Leader), Aized H. Mir (Co Task Team Leader), Hasan Afzal Zaidi, Dr. Zafar Raja, Hiam Abbas, Huma Waheed, Ermeena Malik, Abid Abrar Hussain, Mehreen Tanvir, Nazifa Sheikh and Shaukat Javed. The WB Consultants: M/s Engineering Associates [Sohail Abidi, Ahsan Siddiqi, S. M. Zakir (Economist), Abdul Majeed (Economist), Mr. Z. M. Malik, Mr. S. Bukhari, Mr. O. Mansoor (Coordinator)] for their valuable inputs. Asif Faiz, Cesar Augusto Querio, Fabio Galli, Giovanni Casartelli, Fang Xu, John Carter Scales, Richard Scurfield, Shahzad Sharjeel, Usman Qamar and Uzma Sadaf, are thanked for their extensive review of the PIICA report which is based on the technical notes. Mazhar Malik’s extensive inputs on tackling Human Resource issues along with a detailed review of the report are greatly appreciated. Unjela Siddiqi (M/s Media Solutions) and Huma Ajam for providing editorial support.
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GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR July 1 – June 30
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Pakistan Rupee (PKR) US$ 1 = PKR60.70 (February 6, 2007)
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
AASHTO American Association of State Highway
and Transportation Officials GIKU Ghulam Ishaq Khan University of Science
& Technology ACI Airports Council International GoP Government of Pakistan ADB Asian Development Bank GoS Government of Sindh ADP Annual Development Program GoB Government of Balochistan AIT Asian Institute of Technology (Bangkok,
Thailand) HR Human Resource
APCCA All Pakistan Construction & Contractors Association
HRDF Human Resources Development Fund
BCA Building and Construction Authority ICB International Competitive Bidding CAA Civil Aviation Authority ICT Information and Communications
Technology CAK Contractors Association in Korea IFC International Finance Corporation CAPECO The Peruvian Chamber of Construction ILO International Labor Organization CBR Central Board of Revenue IPC Interim Payment Certificate CDA Capital Development Authority JXB Jebel Ali International Airport CICA Confederation of International Contractors’
Association KPT Karachi Port Trust
CIDB Construction Industry Development Board KWSB Karachi Water and Sewerage Board CIJC Construction Industry Joint Committee L/C Letter of Credit CITC Construction Industry Training Center LCB Local Competitive Bidding CITI Construction Industry Training Institute LUMS Lahore University of Management Sciences COTI Construction Official Training Institute MBA Master of Business Administration CRS Contractors’ Registry System MCA Monopoly Control Authority CWTC Construction Workers Training Center MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology DBS Development Bank of Singapore MOC Ministry of Construction (Korea) DELFT Delft University of Technology, Holland MTDF Medium Term Development Framework DEWA Dubai Electricity and Water Authority NAB National Accountability Bureau DFCs Development Finance Companies NEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory
Authority DIB Dubai Islamic Bank NESPAK National Engineering Services Pakistan
(Pvt.) Ltd. DIFC Dubai International Financial Center NHA National Highway Authority DLC Dubai Logistics City NIT Notice Inviting Tender DURL Dubai Rail Link NLC National Logistic Cell EDR Engineering Development Board NPRP National Procurement Reforms Program ENR Engineering News Record NWFP North-West Frontier Province FBR Federal Board of Revenue OGRA Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority FBS Federal Bureau of Statistics P&D Planning and Development FIA Federal Investigation Agency PC-1 Planning Commission’s Performa 1 FIDIC International Federation of Consulting
Engineers PEC Pakistan Engineering Council
FWO Frontier Works Organization PERT/CPM Project Evaluation Review Technique/Critical Path Method
PIDs Provincial Irrigation Departments SOP Security of Payment
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PKR Pakistan Rupee SPO Special Purpose Organization PPP Purchase Power Parity SSGC Sui Southern Gas Company PPRA Public Procurement Regulatory Authority TEVTA Technical Education and Vocational
Training Authority PSDP Public Sector Development Program ToR Terms of Reference PTA Pakistan Telecommunication Authority UAE United Arab Emirates RFP Request for Proposal USAID United States Agency for International
Development RTA Road & Transport Authority (Dubai) WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority SECP Security and Exchange Commission of
Pakistan WB World Bank
SNGPL Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited
Vice President: Country Director: Sector Director: Sector Manager: Task Team Leader:
Praful C. Patel Yusupha B. Crookes Constance A. Bernard Guang Z. Chen Amer Z. Durrani
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Technical Note 7
DEMAND – SUPPLY GAP ANALYSIS
Table of Contents OBJECTIVES............................................................................................................................................... 1 METHODOLOGY....................................................................................................................................... 1 SUMMARY FINDINGS .............................................................................................................................. 2
POSSIBLE SHORTAGE OF ASPHALT (BITUMEN) ....................................................................................... 2 CEMENT AVAILABILITY DOUBTFUL UNLESS CAPACITY EXPANSION PROGRAMS MATERIALIZE ......... 2 SUPPLY OF QUALITY BILLETS AND OVERALL STEEL SHORTAGE IS A SERIOUS CONCERN ................... 3 AVAILABILITY OF CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT – AN AGEING FLEET................................................... 4 GAPS IN HUMAN RESOURCE..................................................................................................................... 5 GAPS IN HUMAN RESOURCES ARE THE REAL CHALLENGE .................................................................. 10
Importing ............................................................................................................................................ 10 Reversing the Brain-Drain .................................................................................................................. 11 Increasing the Number of Enrolments ................................................................................................ 11 Improving the Existing Pool of Professionals..................................................................................... 11
THE COST OF TRAINING ......................................................................................................................... 13 APPENDIX A: DEMAND – SUPPLY GAPS ......................................................................................... 14
ASSESSING ROAD SECTOR DEMAND PARAMETERS............................................................................... 14 Review of PC-Is: Roads Sector........................................................................................................... 14 Demand Parameters for Materials....................................................................................................... 14 Demand Parameters for Manpower and Equipment ........................................................................... 15 The MTDF Road Sector Program....................................................................................................... 15 Road Sector Demand – Materials, Manpower and Equipment ........................................................... 17
ASSESSING WATER & IRRIGATION SECTOR DEMAND PARAMETERS................................................... 17 Review of PC-Is/Project Documents .................................................................................................. 17 Demand Parameters for Materials and Equipment ............................................................................. 18 The MTDF Water Sector Program...................................................................................................... 18 Water & Irrigation Sector Demand for Materials, Manpower and Equipment ................................... 19 Road, Water & Irrigation Sectors - Total Demand ............................................................................. 19 Earthquake Reconstruction Activity ................................................................................................... 20 Alternative Estimated Demand for Bitumen/Asphalt ......................................................................... 20 Estimated Demand for Steel ............................................................................................................... 21
SUPPLY ESTIMATES ................................................................................................................................ 21 Bitumen............................................................................................................................................... 21 Cement ................................................................................................................................................ 22 Steel .................................................................................................................................................... 23 Construction Equipment ..................................................................................................................... 23
ANNEXURE I TO APPENDIX A – STANDARD SET OF EQUIPMENT AND MANPOWER.............................. 24
Equipment Requirements for Major Categories of Work Items ......................................................... 24 Equipment & Manpower for Roadway Projects ................................................................................. 26 Equipment & Manpower for Water Sector/Irrigation Projects ........................................................... 26
ANNEXURE II TO APPENDIX A – ANNUAL DEMAND FOR MATERIALS, MANPOWER AND EQUIPMENT ON ROAD SECTOR PROJECTS ................................................................................................................. 31
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ANNEXURE III TO APPENDIX A – ANNUAL DEMAND FOR MATERIALS, MANPOWER AND EQUIPMENT ON WATER/IRRIGATION PROJECTS ....................................................................................................... 34 ANNEXURE IV TO APPENDIX A – DEMAND DUE TO EARTHQUAKE RECONSTRUCTION WORK ........... 36
Estimates of Inputs for Roads Work ................................................................................................... 36 Estimated Inputs for Housing & Buildings......................................................................................... 36 Total Estimated Requirements for Earthquake Reconstruction Works............................................... 36
ANNEXURE V TO APPENDIX A – ESTIMATED REQUIREMENTS FOR BITUMEN ..................................... 37 ANNEXURE VI TO APPENDIX A – STEEL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION ........................................ 38
FIGURES Figure 1: Estimated Demand and Supply for Asphalt .................................................................................... 2 Figure 2: Cement Demand – Supply Estimates for Infrastructure.................................................................. 3 Figure 3: Steel Production will not cope with the Demand ............................................................................ 4 CHARTS Chart 1: Declining Number of Engineers ....................................................................................................... 7 Chart 2: Civil Engineers are in Short Supply ................................................................................................. 8 TABLES Table 1: Professionals Required - Roads, Water, Irrigation Sectors and Earthquake Reconstruction............ 5 Table 2: Registered Engineers (up to April 2007).......................................................................................... 6 Table 3: PEC Registration 1996-05................................................................................................................ 6 Table 4: Professionals Proceeding Overseas for Employment ....................................................................... 7 Table 5: Annual Salary Consultant Staff Design and Supervision ............................................................... 10 Table 6: Annual Salary of the Engineering Staff in the Region ................................................................... 11
1
OBJECTIVES
An essential part of the Pakistan Infrastructure Implementation Capacity Assessment (PIICA) was an assessment of available resources and the demand generated for these resources by the proposed infrastructure projects. A demand-supply gap analysis for Human Resources (HR), major construction materials and equipment keeping in view the Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF) for up to 2010 has been reviewed to better understand the constraints faced by the industry. Shortage of manpower emerged as a significant theme when studying the implementation capacity of large infrastructure projects in Pakistan. Stakeholders (clients, consultants and contractors) have been unanimous in identifying the lack of suitably qualified people in their organizations as an impediment both to successful implementation as well as the quality of the products and services they deliver. The Perception Survey conducted for the purpose of this study revealed that 67 percent of stakeholders believed that HR posed a significant constraint to the implementation of large infrastructure projects in Pakistan (Gallup Perception Survey, 20061). It is thus important to quantify the HR gap within the construction industry, both in absolute numbers and skills deficiencies and the gaps in materials and machinery, given the enlarged infrastructure construction program planned during the next few years under the MTDF.2 Have the planners and policy makers catered for these pre-requisites in the MTDF? This is the question that has to be addressed.
METHODOLOGY
The road, water and irrigation sectors in the MTDF 2005-10 were analyzed to reach a broad based demand assessment for materials (bitumen, steel, cement, construction equipment), and HR requirements for undertaking projects listed in the MTDF. Estimated requirements for physical3 and human inputs4 were reviewed against those available in the country to assess possible existence of the demand-supply gaps.
Sample PC-I documents5 for previous projects were reviewed to develop demand parameters related to project costs. The MTDF requirements for inputs were accordingly worked out by relating the derived respective demand parameters with the MTDF project allocations. Details on how the data was collected and compiled are included in Appendix A.
1 Refer Technical Note 2: Local Stakeholder’s Perception Survey 2 A provision of Rs993.2 billion planned PSDP for improvement of physical infrastructure for Pakistan has been made which is roughly three and a half times the development expenditure of Rs278 billion during the past five years (2000-05). An additional Rs405 billion investment is envisaged in roads, airports, ports and power stations by public sector corporations and the private sector, resulting in an overall investment of Rs1,398.2 billion ($23.3 billion) for 5 years translating into Rs279.64 billion for each of the five years of the MTDF. 3 Physical inputs reviewed include: bitumen, steel, cement and other construction equipment. 4 Human inputs reviewed include: professional, vocational and administrative staff. 5 Pakistan Planning Commission Proforma providing technical and economic data on projects.
2
SUMMARY FINDINGS Possible Shortage of Asphalt (Bitumen)
Local production is expected to remain at around 299,000 metric tons (MT) while the total asphalt requirement is estimated to be between 395,000 MT during 2005, and expected to increase to 438,000 MT by 2010. Of the total estimated demand, asphalt requirements for infrastructure projects under the federal and provincial governments over the next five years are estimated to vary from approximately 246,000 MT during 2005-06, to approximately 277,000 MT during 2009-10. In addition, other stakeholders such as city district governments, the housing sectors, township developers and others are estimated to require between 150,000 to 160,000 MT during the 2005 and 2010 period. The demand supply gap is estimated to be between 96,000 to 140,000 MT per year over the next five years (refer Figure 1).
The shortage of bitumen is reported to have already become a foremost issue with several on-going projects suffering delays because of the non-availability of bitumen for road works in the country.6 Availability of asphalt could be further affected as exports to Afghanistan increase during the coming years.
Figure 1: Estimated Demand and Supply for Asphalt
438,314395,269
161,620149,312
96,645139,690
276,694245,957298,624
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
Met
ric T
ons
Total Demand Consumed by DGs, CDGs & real estate/colonies**Shortfall Demand Major Infrastructure/ProvincesProduction (Mtons)
Cement Availability Doubtful unless Capacity Expansion Programs Materialize
The country produces about 23 million MT of cement of which about 10 percent is exported. According to industry estimates,7 out of the remaining amount, 50 percent is consumed
6 All Pakistan Contractor’s Association (APCA) is reported to be engaged in formal talks with the Federal Minister for Communications, FBR and other concerned departments to address the crisis situation in bitumen supplies. A proposal has been submitted to allow import of bitumen from all countries including India, and to reduce the duties and tariffs to control the price. Cost of local bitumen is Rs23,000/MT while imported is Rs30,760/MT – Monthly Construction Review, July 2007. 7 Source: Lucky Cement Pvt. Ltd.,
3
by the housing sector, 20 percent by the industrial sector, and the rest is available for public sector projects. Cement demand for the major infrastructure projects under the MTDF is expected to range between 3.3 million MT to 6.7 million MT per year over the next five years, with the highest demand during 2006-07.8 Local availability of cement for the projects has been estimated at about 3.4 to 4.0 million MT per year. This projected availability does not account for the increase in demand over the years from other competing sectors such as housing, which are likely to experience enhanced growth rates and any increased demands from projects in Afghanistan. Though capacity enhancement has been planned over the next few years in the industry (42 million MT installed capacity by 2009), nevertheless, the import of cement is likely in the short term of around 2 to 3 million MT to meet the increase in demand.
Figure 2 shows the estimated import requirements for cement for the MTDF period. Exports have been projected at 12 percent of production in the analysis.9
Figure 2: Cement Demand – Supply Estimates for Infrastructure
6.41
4.083.09
6.69
-
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
Estimated 2005-6
Estimated 2006-7
Estimated 2007-8
Estimated 2008-9
Estimated 2009-10
Met
ric T
ons (
Mill
ion)
Estd. Supply for Maj Infrastructure Estd Supply +15%Estd Supply -15% Estd. Demand for major infrastructure
Supply of Quality Billets and Overall Steel Shortage is a Serious Concern
The gap between domestic production and demand, and the availability of quality billets for producing reinforcement bars appears to be of concern. Total consumption in Pakistan was estimated at 4.7 million MT during 2004-05, with Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM) producing about 1 million MT of quality steel, while the other local re-rolling and smelting mills (which use imported scrap) produce about 2.3 million MT of steel. The balance requirement of 1.4 million MT is met through imports. The estimated import requirement for steel over the MTDF period varies between 2 million MT during 2006-07 to 3.0 million MT during 2009-10.
Figure 3 shows the projected shortfall in overall steel production which may have to be met through imports. Besides, the overall shortage of locally produced steel products, the main concern for the construction industry is with respect to the production of quality rolled billets and long products. The PSM produces about 0.3 million MT of steel billets while the demand for long products was about 2.5 million MT in 2004-05.
8 Expected primarily due to earthquake reconstruction activities 9 Some industry estimates are targeting up to 15 percent of production for the export market.
4
Figure 3: Steel Production will not cope with the Demand
4.03.3 3.6
5.56.0
6.6
1.4 1.7 2.41.7 2.2
2.8
4.75.4
6.47.2
8.29.4
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4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10
Met
ric T
ons (
Mill
ion)
Domestic Production Estd. Shortfall Total Demand
Availability of Construction Equipment – An Ageing Fleet
Government agencies, clients, PEC or the trade associations like All Pakistan Contractors Association (APCA) do not compile any statistics on the existing machinery pool. Due to the absence of relevant data, the available resources in the country could not be ascertained. However the equipment pool was determined10 to comprise mostly of used (12 to 15 years old) equipment, requiring a high degree of maintenance and hence having lower productivity.
An anomaly exists in the registration requirements for construction machinery and equipment as no records are maintained on the make, type, and model of construction equipment. Self propelled construction equipment is classified as a Heavy Transport Vehicle (HTV), and then as a “truck” since no further sub classification for equipment machinery exists, for example, a dumper-truck or a bull-dozer would be classified simply as “truck”. No mechanism exists for capturing further details in the current processes. The various motor vehicle registration authorities use their own discretion for classification of vehicles which can lead to delays and corrupt practices.
Considering the development plans in the MTDF, an estimated 16,000 pieces of heavy construction equipment and 56,000 trucks would be needed (refer Table 11, Annexure A). It is likely, that there would be a need to import a significant number of new, efficient construction equipment to meet the requirements.11 Liberal import policies along with leasing and financing facilities and the availability of equipment (new and used) in neighboring international markets including China, Japan, Korea and the UAE should enable any shortfall to be easily met.
10 Equipment age as reported by stakeholders. 76 percent of the stakeholders surveyed reported their equipment to be imported and in used condition (refer Technical Note 2), actual age of equipment would therefore be more. 11 For the purpose of analysis, construction equipment was classified as heavy equipment and trucks. “Heavy equipment” comprises of dozers, mechanical shovels, graders, cranes, excavators, crushers and batching plants etc. “Trucks” comprise of dumpers, transit mixers, bowzers etc.
5
This is assuming that companies procuring equipment foresee a reasonable certainty of their continued use in the long term, and policies facilitate import by being simple and responsive to the needs of the industry. The planned infrastructure projects and the projected overall growth over the next five years provide reasonable certainty of a continued need for machinery and this demand should encourage imports by the industry.
Gaps in Human Resource Given the perceptions of the stakeholders regarding a critical shortage of adequately qualified and trained HR in the industry, it is important to estimate the gaps and gain an appreciation of the scale of the problem. Manpower requirements of the construction industry can broadly be categorized as comprising:
• Professionals who are graduate or associate engineers12 (planners, project managers, design engineers, supervision engineers, and other staff)
• Technical and vocational, comprising skilled workers of various trades (surveyors, laboratory technicians, steel fixers, machine operators, electricians, mechanics, among others);
• Administrative staff who provide essential back-office support, and • Unskilled labor.
Demand-supply gaps were identified through estimates of available professionals and
vocational staff and those required for undertaking the planned MTDF projects. Estimated HR Requirements for the MTDF
An estimate of the HR needed to undertake the projects planned under the MTDF were derived based on typical patterns of staffing required to design and supervise similar infrastructure projects. Approximately 7,700 engineers, 62,000 skilled workers, 140,000 unskilled workers and about 1,000 administrative support staff would be needed for projects in the roads, water, irrigation sectors13 and for the earthquake reconstruction activities alone (Table 1, refer Appendix A for details). The peak requirement is expected during 2006-07 and 2007-08, when the earthquake reconstruction work will be in full swing. Table 1: Professionals Required - Roads, Water, Irrigation Sectors and Earthquake Reconstruction
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Engineers/Associate Engineers 5,315 7,678 7,117 7,043 5,645
Skilled Workers 13,287 62,281 49,447 29,463 22,016 Unskilled Workers 69,094 140,305 133,366 106,351 83,245
Administrative Staff 886 1,107 1,133 1,213 967 Totals 88,582 211,371 191,063 144,070 111,873
12 Graduate engineers have an engineering degree; associate engineers have a three years diploma after matriculation. 13 Projects taken in the analysis were from roads, water and irrigation sectors (dams, canals, barrages, etc).
6
Year Civil Electrical Mechanical 1996 743 850 754 1997 696 599 537 1998 751 612 705 1999 946 805 797 2000 907 1083 831 2001 1049 912 707 2002 906 929 755 2003 1031 1013 665 2004 945 973 768 2005 560 693 523
Total =====> 8534 8469 7042
Estimated Available Professionals, Skilled Manpower and Gaps
The HR available for the planned major infrastructure projects are dependent upon the professionals being trained each year, the numbers emigrating overseas for employment, numbers leaving or retiring from the profession and the demand made on available manpower resources from other competing sectors.
Table 2: Registered Engineers (up to April 2007) Availability of engineering staff is
especially of importance considering the key role played by them in planning and delivering infrastructure.
Since, it is mandatory for engineers to register with the PEC in order to practice within the country, the PEC registrations may be taken as indicative of the total engineers produced in the country over the years (refer Table 2).
Of the approximately 66,000 actively registered engineers, nearly 47,000 or 72 percent are from the three major disciplines of civil, mechanical and electrical engineering. There are about 19,500 civil engineers, who are of particular importance for assessing capacity to deliver the planned infrastructure projects.
Table 3 shows the PEC registration in various engineering disciplines from 1996 to 2005.
Table 3: PEC Registration 1996-05 Numbers of engineers being produced in
the country show a steep downward trend as shown in Chart 1. The country was producing approximately 900 civil engineers each year during 1999 to 2004, however, the numbers dropped sharply to about 560 engineers during 2005. A similar trend is seen in the other engineering disciplines. This may be attributed to the past slump in infrastructure sector in the country and a simultaneous interest and world-wide demand in electronics, computer sciences and the service sectors. This may have prompted a significant shift in the focus of new entrants to universities, the results of which becomes evident after 4 years in 2005.
Discipline Total
Registered Valid
Registrations Civil 25941 19433
Electrical 22170 14645 Mechanical 19581 12983 Chemical 6069 4008
Electronics 8273 5775 Metallurgy 1919 1056 Agriculture 2518 1395
Aeronautical 991 652 Mining 1079 620
Petroleum 716 461 Telecommunications 375 365
Industrial 660 456 Textile 198 178
Biomedical 199 189 Computer Sciences 4075 3346
Others 106 101 Total ====> 94870 65663
7
400
600
800
1000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Num
ber o
f Gra
duat
es
Civil Electrical Mechanical
Chart 1: Declining Number of Engineers It may be assumed that
this change in trend is likely to continue for the next 5 years, even if it shifts again towards civil engineering considering the current boom in the construction industry within the country and in the region as a whole.
A significant amount of qualified manpower emigrates from Pakistan each year as approximately 950 engineers went abroad for employment during 2005, which is almost 38 percent of all graduating engineers.14 Total number of engineers emigrated is reported to be 23,000 (refer Table 4). The latest emigration figures for the six-month period from January to June 2007, shows an even more alarmingly situation with 975 engineers emigrating overseas. If this trend continues almost 1,800 engineers would have immigrated overseas during 2007, or almost 70 percent of the numbers produced in 2005.
Table 4: Professionals Proceeding Overseas for Employment Year Sr.
No. Categories 1971-2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total
Estimated Jan-June
2007 1 Engineer 18,338 1,227 861 821 880 951 23,078 975 2 Welder 31,103 1,237 1,545 3,263 1,770 1,435 40,353 1,706 3 Foremen 31,528 884 1,147 1,964 1,544 1,522 38,589 1,631 4 Mason 218,229 11,083 11,312 16,415 13,645 9,685 280,369 11,851 5 Carpenter 151,112 7,304 9,954 13,355 11,231 8,027 200,983 8,495 6 Electrician 97,623 4,718 6,570 8,614 6,024 4,201 127,750 5,400 7 Plumber 42,067 2,412 3,517 4,760 2,944 1,581 57,281 2,421 8 Steel Fixer 84,786 4,674 6,273 8,760 6,680 4,935 116,108 4,908 9 Painter 58,327 3,032 3,146 4,995 3,233 2,516 75,249 3,181 10 Technician 95,569 6,229 9,366 12,719 10,250 8,651 142,784 6,035 11 Mechanic 81,820 3,169 4,142 6,358 4,406 3,705 103,600 4,379 12 Cable worker 2,932 35 96 50 70 78 3,261 138 13 Driver 267,078 18,467 17,984 21,182 14,830 11,626 351,167 14,843 14 Operator 32,966 1,504 2,433 3,707 1,829 3,709 46,148 1,951 15 Surveyor 5,769 163 183 237 185 128 6,665 282 16 Fitter 13,737 884 974 1,475 1,141 1,547 19,758 835 17 Programmer 1,523 583 404 354 371 443 3,678 155 18 Designer 327 181 277 564 104 46 1,499 63 19 Rigger 1,144 277 74 97 156 118 1,866 79 20 Draftsman 847 106 62 594 113 63 1,785 75 Total Professional/ Skilled 1,236,825 68,169 80,320 110,284 81,406 64,967 1,641,971 69,404 21 Laborers 1,104,353 41,074 46,726 73,318 66,650 54,735 1,386,856 58,621 Total Emigrated 2,341,178 109,243 127,046 183,602 148,056 119,702 3,028,827 128,025 Source: Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment
14 Approximately 2,500 engineers registered in all disciplines with the PEC during 2005
8
Taking into account emigration, competing jobs from other sectors such as housing, industry and manufacturing, and from small infrastructure projects, the net available pool of civil engineers for large infrastructure projects is estimated to be approximately 2,000 only.15 The demand-supply gaps for civil engineers are estimated to be between 3,000 to 5,000 engineers during the MTDF period, as shown in Chart 2.
Chart 2: Civil Engineers are in Short Supply
A similar proportionate shortage of adequately skilled workers and civil diploma holders has been reported by the industry stake holders. The emigration statistics show that each year on average 60,000 trained workers, foremen, surveyors, quantity surveyors, technicians and others find jobs overseas and this trend is clearly increasing each year. Assuming a typical four year contract, even if half of them return each year, a significant number of skilled workmen are still proceeding abroad each year. The total number of workers trained each year in technical and vocational institutes in related fields is estimated to be around 75,000,16 while the demand for skilled workers for the selected MTDF projects alone is estimated at 60,000. It is clear, from the analysis that there are significant gaps in demand and supply of technical manpower.
Besides the numbers, the skills of the available cadre of civil engineers and workers are of concern. Stakeholders have identified deficient training arrangements and a mismatch between education curriculum and required job skills as the primary issue in HR. The shortage of required skills and personnel can be attributed to shortage of quality institutions, poorly qualified technical training staff and non-competitive compensation.17
Increasing construction activity in the regional countries continues to draw skilled workers and engineers from the available pool of adequately qualified HR. It can be therefore
15 Out of 19,500 civil engineers, 10 percent are assumed to be not available in the work force (due to emigration, deaths, and women engineers who may not pursue a career after marriage). Of the remaining 18,000, 2/3rd are assumed to be employed in other sectors not related to infrastructure (such as housing, manufacturing and industries) leaving 5,000 to 6,000 for infrastructure works of all types. Out of these, 2/3rd are estimated to be engaged on the much larger portfolio of small projects, leaving a balance of approximately 2,000 engineers for large infrastructure. 16 Source NAVTEC: There are 1,522 technical and vocational training institutions having approximately 300,000 students. 25 percent or about 75,000 estimated to be in related fields each year. 17 NAVTEC survey, 2006, reports that courses need to be aligned with market needs, there is a lack of market data, wide gap between institutions and industry needs, low enrollment and completion rates, 10~30 percent teachers are under qualified, capacity, quality and governance issues in institutions, and low quality of output.
Demand
Supply
Gap
01,0002,0003,0004,000
5,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
No.
of C
ivil
Engi
neer
s
9
concluded that the critical shortage of skilled staff will continue over the next few years. The Skills Gap
There are nearly 17,550 civil engineers, available for future infrastructure projects as per the estimates derived in the analysis above. Even if only 10-25 percent of the existing force needs some form of training, this number could be between 1,755 to over 4,000. Considering that around 1,800 engineers are trained in Pakistani universities each year (Table 6), it will require a major effort to train these numbers over a short period for them to be able to contribute effectively to the program.
If skilled workers requiring training are estimated conservatively as three times as many as civil engineers, then they would be in the range of 5,000 to 12,000 or 9,000 on an average. Their training would vary across the board in civil, mechanical and others fields. This again will be a vital task.
Infrastructure projects planned for MTDF, cover a wide range, from highways, water and irrigation, dams, power, railways, ports and harbors to others. Whereas, it would be desirable to list specific areas of training, it is prudent to say that such a list should be worked out in close consultation with the stakeholders.
It is safe to say that training is required in almost all fields and at all levels. To quote only one area, such as highways, consultants need to be trained and equipped in the following disciplines:
a. Survey of alignment with modern methods of survey including aerial and ground survey with the use of modern equipment: Correct alignment can save large sums of money by staking out the most economical routes, identifying soils, locating construction materials and identifying bridge locations, thereby estimating costs before getting into detailed field surveys.
b. Geometric design of roads and highways. For ordinary roads or high speed highways, CAD program can help with geometric design. This ultimately helps safe and functional utility in a short timeframe when coupled with advanced survey tools. Some software offers design of allied structure, drainage and quantity calculation.
c. Soil analysis and structural design of pavement: It offers identifying soils, correct and economical design of pavements for long life, coupled with field control and material testing, which can help in avoiding costly mistakes.
d. Field training for maintaining and using construction equipment for soil transportation, compaction and handling of various materials during construction.
e. Concrete bridges and culverts at design as well as construction planning and supervision stage. Prefabrication, use of pre-stressed design and industrialised construction can reduce time, cost and help improve quality.
f. Project planning leads to effective use of consultant’s, contractor’s and client’s precious time and increases their profits.
Similar training activities are required in almost all other fields, be they transmission towers or design and construction of dams. Consultation with stakeholders and reviews of the nature of future projects will determine the exact kind of skills and training that needs to be imparted.
10
Gaps in Human Resources are the Real Challenge
While materials and equipment shortages can be filled up reasonably quickly through imports, the above analysis of the gap in HR suggests that in order to implement the large infrastructure projects planned under the MTDF, the existing HR resources have to be enlarged and significantly improved from its present standards. The options available include:
Importing Importing qualified engineers and skilled persons from international markets could
temporarily fill the number gap in HR availability but it could also prove to be a costly option.
In the consulting sub-sector in Pakistan, the average annual salary paid to a senior engineer with more than 10 years of experience varies from US$10,000 to US$12,000. Junior and entry level engineers are remunerated at US$5,000 and US$1,200, respectively. Compared to Pakistan, local staff in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand receive roughly double the salary. Whereas, in the UAE, the salary of a local consulting engineer is six times higher than in Pakistan (Table 5). Table 5: Annual Salary Consultant Staff Design and Supervision
Design $US Indonesia Thailand Malaysia UAE Pakistan Staff Description
Local Local Local Local Local 1 Senior Design Engineer (more
than 10 years relevant experience)
23,200 22,700 17,800 65,200 9,820
2 Entry Level Design Engineers (up to 5 years experience)
9,900 9,300 N.A 35,900 5,340
Supervision $US 1 Resident Engineer / Project
Manager (more than 20 years relevant experience)
26,500 45,300 27,400 65,200 12,240
2 Senior Supervision Engineer (more than 10 years relevant
experience)
19,900 22,700 17,800 48,900 10,300
3 Junior Supervision Engineer (more than 5 years relevant experience) and technicians (more than 10 years relevant
experience)
13,200 14,700 N.A 39,100 5,200
4 Entry Level Supervision Engineers (up to 5 years
experience)
9,900 9,300 N.A 29,300 1,230
The salary structure for local staff employed in Pakistan’s construction industry varies based on the category of firm. Salaries at smaller (C3) companies vary between US$3,800 for junior engineers to US$6,100 for senior engineers with more than 10 years of relevant experience. Compared to this, the largest firms (C1) pay between US$6,100 and US$10,000 to the same category of engineers. Average annual salaries paid to engineers in the construction industries of regional markets are comparably significantly higher. US$19,900 in Indonesia, US$32,000 in Thailand, US$17,800 in Malaysia and US$48,900 in the UAE, whereas, a local senior engineer in Pakistan charges around US$7,500 (Table 6).
11
Table 6: Annual Salary of the Engineering Staff in the Region $US
Indonesia Thailand Malaysia UAE Pakistan Staff Description Local Local Local Local C1 C2 C3 Avg
1 Senior Engineer (more than 10 years relevant experience)
19,900 32,000 17,800 48,900 10,000 6,500 6,100 7,533
2 Junior Engineer (more than 5 years relevant experience)
14,900 22,700 N.A 26,100 5,100 2,300 3,800 3,733
Importing labor from regional countries or further would thus mean paying them at least
comparable salaries in addition to other benefits to attract them to work in Pakistan. Considering the disparity portrayed in the tables above, this would mean much higher costs for contractors and consultants in case of importing labor from abroad.
Reversing the Brain-Drain The Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment Pakistan has been keeping a list of
the outflow of engineers and skilled workers from Pakistan (Table 4). The numbers show that 23,078 engineers have proceeded abroad between 1971 and 2005 (a span of 25 years). During the same period, 3,005,749 skilled workers went abroad. However, the actual numbers of outflow can be higher.
It is interesting to note that at present, Pakistan has a pool of 17,550 civil engineers available for this program whereas, 23078, mostly civil engineers, have immigrated during the last 25 years to other countries. Bureau of Emigration figures show that 951 engineers went abroad during 2005 (Table 4) while only 1776 new graduates entered the market during the same year (Table 3). This reflects the seriousness of the situation where the number of engineers going abroad is more than half of the fresh engineering graduates. Reversing the brain-drain would mean an addition of about 900 engineers each year to the current pool of engineers.
Increasing the Number of Enrolments The above two options - importing and reversing the brain drain, might be suitable in the
short run, but resolving the numbers gap in HR in the most efficient and cost effective way in the long run would require increasing the production of high quality personnel at all three levels: professional, vocational and administrative. This can be achieved by making efforts towards increasing enrolment in higher education institutes and consecutively making engineering a more attractive career choice for college students.
The following section on training suggests ways in which more students and other personnel be they professional, skilled workers or administrative staff can be trained to work in the construction industry. Ultimately, higher salaries and other benefits will have to be offered as a first step towards increasing competent HR in the industry. Once the incentives are put in place, the recommendations made in the subsequent section can be used towards bettering the skills of both fresh graduates and existing engineers required in implementing large infrastructure projects in Pakistan.
Improving the Existing Pool of Professionals Training the existing pool of manpower is imperative to bring them at par with the skills
12
required to implement the projects envisaged under the MTDF. Training can be divided at two locations, one within Pakistan and the second abroad. Nearly two thirds of training can be provided within the country. Foreign training should be considered for experienced personnel in the categories where training is not available within the country and also for providing broader experience.
Training can be offered at the following places within Pakistan:
• Universities of Engineering at Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar and Taxila, GIKU Tarbela, at NUST Rawalpindi, LUMS, IBA (Karachi) and at SZABIST. Each place has its special strengths which should be utilised to the maximum. Foreign teachers can be arranged where local staff is not available. Efforts should be made to encourage university students to attend such programs.
• Distance learning techniques to be explored wherever possible. Teachers from universities can be inducted to supervise such programs.
• Training institutes like TEVTA and similar in other provinces should be used for diploma holders and skilled workers. Teachers from the field or design offices can be hired to supplement this effort.
• Creating a pool of teachers who can train. This input is crucial since their will be a lack of trained people to teach and train as soon as such a training program is launched. In fact, this will be one of the first things that will need to be addressed before an effective program can be launched.
Each of the provincial ministries for water and irrigation, communication and works and
Karachi Port should look into establishing their material testing and field control laboratory to train their staff on a periodic basis. For example, Irrigation Research Laboratory, Lahore can assist the Irrigation department while, Road Research Laboratory, Lahore can help with Communication and Works, Punjab. These institutions can play an important role in future training of engineers on latest trends in engineering science and such trainings can be carried out at a nominal cost.
a. Training sessions can be held at consultants’ or contractors’ offices or sites in fields
which are relevant to them and can provide their services as teachers. Depending upon the subject of the training, locations can be rotated.
b. Across the board training in computer skills is required to make most engineers familiar with using the Internet, Power Point, Word, Excel and CAD or other related programs.
c. Possibilities should be explored for getting machinery operators trained from manufacturers of equipment such as Caterpillar, Mitsubishi, Parkers, Barber Greene or similar companies at the project site or at their workshops. These manufacturers can be encouraged to include training as a part of the equipment sale.
d. Despite making arrangements in the short term to arrange for training needs, sincere efforts should be made to institutionalise the system for it to be successful in the long term. This will mean assisting universities to add new courses to their curricula and supporting other institutions to run specialised and field training courses.
e. Training will need identification of subjects and finalising training curricula. Constant supervision and evaluation of training programs is essential. Satisfaction of the stakeholders will be the criteria to judge the quality of the training.
This function may appear simple but training a few thousand will take both time and
work. Part of this work can be done within existing institutions. On a long-term basis, it may be
13
necessary to create a ministry or a division in Islamabad or an alternate would be to consider encouraging and developing private training consultants to do the job. Each alternative has its weaknesses and strengths.
Though there are many options available, however, cost of training would be much higher but worth the additional expense. Ideally the duration of the training must be for six months. Examples of training options to explore include:
a. Universities in the US, the UK, Australia, Singapore, DELFT Holland, AIT Bangkok, and others. There are courses to match Pakistan’s needs in each university.
b. State Highway Departments in the US, Ministry of Communications, Water and Irrigation Ministries, Electricity Boards, Organisations handling dams where construction work is going on and training can be provided on active projects.
c. Some of the foreign consultants and contractors working in Pakistan can train within their organisations in or out of Pakistan as a part of their contract.
d. The World Bank, Colombo Plan, USAID, ILO, ADB, Japanese Assistance Programme and others can help with placements.
e. A combination of university courses combined with field training would be very useful.
The Cost of Training
There is need to train a very large number of engineers, junior engineers, skilled workers and administrative staff. To work out the cost of training at different levels within Pakistan and abroad seems premature at this stage. It can be a lengthy and complex exercise. At this stage, a simplified way would be to relate cost of training to the size of the infrastructure program at hand.
The aggregate size of the program for 2005-10 is Rs1,398 billion. A 1.0 percent allocation out of these funds on training and education would be Rs13.98 billion and a one fourth percent of this program will be Rs3.49 billion ($58.26 million at the current rate of exchange of PKR60=US$1). If funds are allocated even according to a lower percent figure, it would work out to be Rs698 million ($11.63 million) annually for the next 5 years. This figure will give a start to the training program and can be modified as it develops. Investment will promote excellence in education/training and trained manpower would produce results far in excess of the investment.
A detailed and comprehensive program of education and training will be necessary and should be prepared in consultation with the stakeholders. Lack of trained manpower in Pakistan today is the result of years of neglect. This opportunity should be cashed with a sense of urgency and immediacy. Availability of trained manpower before the launch of the planned infrastructure programs will be of great benefit to Pakistan.
14
APPENDIX A: DEMAND – SUPPLY GAPS
Assessing Road Sector Demand Parameters
Review of PC-Is: Roads Sector PC-I documents for various projects were randomly selected for review. The objective
was to develop equations which related project cost to demand parameters. Based on the PC-I estimates, the various projects reviewed have been grouped into 7 categories. Each category is distinctive in the nature and composition of work involved and therefore differs in terms of the derived demand parameters. Project categories defined for the road sector are shown in Table 1. Table 2 gives list of project PC-I documents reviewed.
Table 1: Road Sector - Project Categories Sr. No. Project Category
1 Construction of new 2 lane road to typical NHA standards
2 Improvement of new 2 lane road to typical NHA standards
3 Construction of new 2 lane road by provincial highway departments
4 Improvement of new 2 lane road by provincial highway departments
5 Construction of new 4 lane city bypass to NHA standards 6 Construction of new 6 lane motorways to NHA standards 7 Major bridges
Table 2: Road Sector - Project PC-I's Reviewed
Sr. No. Name of Project 1 Kalat-Quetta-Chaman N-25 2 Makran Coastal Road 3 Indus Highway Project Phase-III 4 Kuchlac to Zhob Section N-50 5 Dera-Allahyar-Nuttal N-65 6 Islamabad-Muzaffarabad Highway N-75 7 D. I. Khan Mughal Kot Section N-50 8 Noshki-Dalbandin Section N-40 9 Peshawar Northern Bypass 10 Rawalpindi Bypass 11 Quetta Western Bypass 12 Lahore-Islamabad Motorway (M-2) 13 Islamabad-Peshawar Motorway (M-1)
Demand Parameters for Materials Demand parameters for bitumen, steel and cement have been worked out directly from
project PC-Is for the various categories shown except for the provincial roads and major bridges. For provincial roads, demand indicators have been taken as 75 percent of those for similar roads built according to NHA standards. For major bridges, 80 percent of the project cost has been attributed to structural concrete works. The cement and steel requirements have been estimated
15
by assuming half of the total structural concrete cost to concrete and steel. A cement density of 350kg/m3 of concrete has been used to assess cement requirements for a project when not directly given in the PC-I.
Demand Parameters for Manpower and Equipment Most PC-Is reviewed did not show requirement for manpower and construction
equipment. In documents which did, the estimates showed considerable variance, precluding educated derivation of parameters for manpower and construction equipment. Consultants relied on their own experience and engineering judgment to develop demand parameters for manpower and construction equipment for the various categories of road projects under consideration. Average lead and haulage has been assumed. Further details are shown in Annexure I.
Construction equipment has been further classified in to two categories; heavy equipment
and trucks. Heavy equipment comprises various heavy pieces of roadway construction material including dozers, mechanical shovels, graders, cranes, excavators, crushers and batching plants. Trucks include dumpers, transit mixers, bowzers and other related machinery.
Manpower has likewise been further classified in to 4 categories, namely
Engineer/Diploma holder, Administrative Staff, Skilled Labor and Unskilled Labor.
Units have been defined for each category of projects, a unit being the cost of work likely to be completed in one year, assuming a healthy pace of work. Demand parameters have been established for respective unit costs therefore, indicating yearly demand for the various parameters for each unit of work in the respective category of project.
For a new two-lane road according to NHA standards, an annual work length of 50kms
has been assumed. For a new 6-lane motorway, the assumed annual work length is 33kms and for a new 4-lane bypass road, an annual work length of 40kms has been assumed. Annual work length for improvement of a 2-lane road to NHA standards has been assumed as 115km based on equivalent construction cost of 50kms of a new 2-lane road, thus equating the manpower and equipment parameters between the two categories. Demand for cement, steel and bitumen has been worked out based on review of PC-I documents of relevant projects for 115km for roadway improvement length.
Annual work length for construction of new and improvement of a 2-lane provincial road
has been taken as 75kms and 172 kms, respectively. These annual lengths are set assuming that expenditure on provincial roads are a third less than those on NHA standard 2-lane roads.
Unit costs and demand parameters associated with the various roadway project categories
are shown in Table 3.
The MTDF Road Sector Program The MTDF for the road sector projects an allocation of approximately Rs234 billion
during the next 5 years on projects pertinent to this study. These projects have been grouped in to categories described above in terms of total annual allocation in each category for 2005-10. Table 4 shows annual MTDF allocation for each category of projects considered and also shows number of equivalent project units for each year’s allocation in the respective category.
16
Table 3: Road Sector - Unit Costs and Demand Parameters Demand Parameters
Manpower Requirement Construction Equipment
Category Cost per Unit
(Rs in Mil)
Bitu
men
Con
sum
ptio
n pe
r U
nit (
Ton
s)
Cem
ent C
onsu
mpt
ion
per
Uni
t (T
ons)
Stee
l Con
sum
ptio
n pe
r U
nit (
Ton
s)
Eng
inee
r/
Dip
lom
a (N
os.)
Adm
inis
trat
ive
(Nos
.)
Skill
ed
Lab
or (N
os.)
Uns
kille
d L
abor
(Nos
.)
Tot
al (N
os.)
Hea
vy
Equ
ipm
ent
(Nos
.)
Tru
cks (
Nos
.)
Construction of new 2-lane road to NHA standards
1,600 7,700 11,350 1,650 48 8 120 624 800 50 170
Improvement of new 2-lane road to NHA standards
1,600 7,700 17,400 3,220 48 8 120 624 800 50 170
Construction of new 2-lane road by provincial highway departments
1,600 7,700 11,350 1,650 48 8 120 624 800 50 170
Improvement of new 2-lane road by provincial highway departments
1,600 7,700 17,400 3,220 48 8 120 624 800 50 170
Construction of new 4-lane city bypass to NHA standards
4,300 12,200 52,100 9,000 108 18 270 1,404 1,800 175 670
Construction of new 6-lane motorways to NHA standards
5,700 12,200 26,000 4,000 168 28 420 2,184 2,800 135 500
Major bridges 500 - 11,900 2,800 15 3 38 195 250 15 9
Table 4: Road Sector – Annual Allocation and Units18 in each Project Category Year 2005-06 Year 2006-07 Year 2007-08 Year 2008-09 Year 2009-10 Total 2005-10
Category Unit Cost (Rs/ Mil)
Alloc Rs/Mil
No. of Units
Alloc (Rs Mil)
No. of Units
Alloc (Rs/Mil)
No. of Units
Alloc (Rs/Mil)
No. of Units
Alloc (Rs/Mil)
No. of Units
Alloc (Rs/Mil)
No. of Units
Construction 2-lane NHA stds 1,600 11,171 6.98 12,185 7.62 10,597 6.62 16,780 10.49 19,412 12.13 70,145 43.84
Improvement 2-lane road NHA 1,600 3,756 2.35 4,451 2.78 5,206 3.25 4,882 3.05 3,675 2.30 21,970 13.73
Construction 2-lane road provincial
1,600 11,588 7.24 11,588 7.24 11,588 7.24 11,588 7.24 11,588 7.24 57,942 36.21
Improvement 2-lane road provincial
1,600 8,392 5.24 8,392 5.24 8,392 5.24 8,392 5.24 8,392 5.24 41,958 26.22
Construction 4-lane bypass NHA 4,300 1,118 0.26 1,318 0.31 2,429 0.56 1,315 0.31 1,618 0.38 7,797 1.81
Construction 6-lane motorways NHA
5,700 6,980 1.22 5,757 1.01 6,958 1.22 4,000 0.70 4,000 0.70 27,695 4.86
Major bridges 500 543 1.09 735 1.47 478 0.96 2,340 4.68 1,945 3.89 6,041 12.08 Total 43,548 24.39 44,424 25.67 45,648 25.11 49,298 31.71 50,629 31.89 233,547 138.76
18 No. of units = Allocation/Unit cost for each category of project
17
Road Sector Demand – Materials, Manpower and Equipment Demand parameters for the road sector have been calculated by combining values from
Tables 3 and 4. The results are presented in Table 5, annual demand is shown in Tables 5i to 5v placed in Annexure II.
Table 5: Road Sector - Aggregated Demand Parameters Years 2005-10 Manpower Equipment Year Bitumen
(Tons) Cement (Tons)
Steel (Tons)
Eng
inee
r /
Dip
lom
a (N
os.)
Adm
inis
trat
ive
(Nos
.)
Skill
ed
Lab
or
(Nos
.)
Uns
kille
d L
abor
(N
os.)
Tot
al
Man
pow
er
(Nos
.)
Hea
vy
Equ
ipm
ent
(Nos
.) T
ruck
s (N
os.)
2005-06 186,102 351,858 58,196 1,297 216 3,243 16,865 21,622 1,318 4,505 2006-07 192,271 368,013 61,274 1,323 221 3,308 17,202 22,054 1,356 4,614 2007-08 193,992 377,789 62,886 1,354 226 3,385 17,601 22,565 1,396 4,799 2008-09 212,698 435,466 74,632 1,470 245 3,676 19,115 24,507 1,520 5,022 2009-10 220,410 435,273 73,339 1,509 251 3,772 19,615 25,148 1,565 5,214 Total=> 1,005,474 1,968,399 330,328 6,954 1,159 17,384 90,399 115,896 7,155 24,154
Assessing Water & Irrigation Sector Demand Parameters
Review of PC-Is/Project Documents Water sector randomly selected PC-Is for various irrigation and water sector projects were reviewed to derive demand parameters for such projects. The demand parameters relate to construction of those project components which fall within the scope of this study. For example, in the case of dams, demand indicators have been worked out for the actual dam and affiliated structures but not the housing colony or other buildings which would classify as construction areas not under the scope of this study. The demand parameters have however been linked to the total project cost to be compatible with the allocations given in the MTDF. Water sector projects reviewed through PC-Is have been grouped in to 5 categories as shown in Table 6. List of project PC-I’s reviewed is given in Table 7.
All the categories of irrigation projects, except ‘Barrage Rehabilitation’ are earthwork intensive. An earthwork component of 6.25 million Cu.M has been assumed for each of the water sector units, except “Barrage Rehabilitation.” Unit costs of these categories have been worked out by correlating the project cost with project earthwork quantities prorated for 6.25 million Cu.M of earthwork. Requirements for bitumen, cement and steel have been worked out based on review of relevant irrigation project PC-Is. For barrage rehabilitation projects, reference has been made directly to the Sukkur Barrage Rehabilitation Project.
Table 6: Water Sector - Project Categories
Sr. No. Water Sector Projects
1 New Dams - Water Storage 2 Barrage Rehabilitation 3 Lining of Canals 4 Rehabilitation of Canals and Drains 5 New Canals
18
Demand Parameters for Materials and Equipment Unit costs and demand parameters for the various categories of irrigation projects are shown in Table 8.
E
ngin
eer/
Dip
lom
a (N
os.)
Adm
inis
trat
ive
(Nos
.)
Skill
ed
Lab
or (N
os.)
Uns
kille
dL
abor
(Nos
.)
Tot
al (N
os.)
Hea
vyE
quip
men
t (N
os.)
Tru
cks
(Nos
.)
New Dams 18,800 205,000 21,000 336 56 840 4,368 5,600 175 500Barrage Rehabilitation 2,500 80,000 700 30 5 75 390 500 50 50Lining of Canals 3,500 170,000 6,500 336 56 840 4,368 5,600 155 490Rehabilitation of Canals and Drains
750 2,600 800 336 56 840 4,368 5,600 60 420
New Canals 3,300 46,300 13,000 336 56 840 4,368 5,600 85 440
Table 8: Water Sector - Unit Costs and Demand Parameters
Cost per Unit(Rs.
Million)
Category
Cem
ent C
onsu
mpt
ion
per
Uni
t (T
ons)
Stee
l Con
sum
ptio
npe
r U
nit (
Ton
s)
Manpower Requirement Construction Equipment
The MTDF Water Sector Program The MTDF for the water sector (dams, canals/drains, barrages) projects an allocation of
Rs274 billion. These projects have been grouped into categories described above in terms of total annual allocation in each category during 2005-10. Table 9 shows annual MTDF allocation for each category of projects considered and also shows number of equivalent project units for each year’s allocation in the respective category.19
19 The projects selected exclude research, feasibility studies, housing colonies, and other such projects
Table 7: Water Sector - Project PC-I’s Reviewed Sr. No. Name of Projects
1 Gomal - Zam Dam 2 Kurram - Tangi Dam 3 Sabak Zai Dam 4 Sukkur Barrage Rehabilitation & Improvement Project 5 Lining of Irrigation Channels in Sindh
6 Revamping/rehabilitation of Irrigation & Draining System of Sindh
7 Extension of Right Bank Outfall Drain from Sehwan to Sea
8 Basha Diamer Dam Project (Feasibility Report)
9 Mangla Dam Raising (Contract Documents)
19
Table 9: Water Sector - Units in Each Project Category
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Total 2005-10
Category Unit Cost
(Rs/mil) Alloc
(Rs/mil)
No. of
Units
Alloc (Rs/mil)
No. of
Units
Alloc (Rs/mil)
No. of
Units
Alloc (Rs/mil)
No of
Units
Alloc (Rs/mil)
No. of
Units
Alloc (Rs/mil)
No. of
UnitsNew Dams 18,800 14,676 0.78 19,346 1.03 24,604 1.31 5,200 0.28 7,503 0.28 63,826 3.40 Barrage Rehabilitation 2,500 1,885 1.00 2,300 1.00 1,619 1.00 500 1.00 500 1.00 6,304 4.00
Lining of Canals 3,500 7,500 2.14 12,200 3.49 13,200 3.77 14,000 4.00 6,455 1.84 46,900 13.40
Rehabilitation of Canals & Drains
750 3,800 5.07 4,100 5.47 4,283 5.71 4,000 5.33 4,275 5.70 16,183 21.57
New Canals 3,300 12,800 3.88 10,742 3.26 10,718 3.25 14,202 4.30 8,839 2.68 48,462 14.69Totals 40,661 12.87 48,688 14.24 54,424 15.04 37,902 14.91 27,572 11.50 181,675 57.05
Water & Irrigation Sector Demand for Materials, Manpower and Equipment Demand parameters for the water sector have been calculated by combining values from
Tables 8 and 9. The summary results are presented in Table 10, while annual demands over the MTDF period are shown in Tables 10i to 10v placed in Annexure III.
Eng
inee
r /
Dip
lom
a(N
os.)
Adm
inis
trat
ive
(Nos
.)
Skill
ed
Lab
or
(Nos
.)
Uns
kille
dL
abor
(Nos
.)
Tot
al
Man
pow
er (N
os.)
Hea
vyE
quip
men
t(N
os.)
Tru
cks
(Nos
.)2005-06 797,075 85,499 4,018 670 10,044 52,229 66,960 1,152 5,325 2006-07 1,048,449 91,656 4,477 746 11,193 58,202 74,618 1,375 6,000 2007-08 1,154,652 99,487 4,747 791 11,866 61,706 79,110 1,482 6,379 2008-09 1,029,824 92,722 4,705 784 11,761 61,159 78,410 1,404 6,281 2009-10 589,061 57,876 3,557 593 8,893 46,246 59,290 954 4,664 Total => 4,619,062 427,240 21,503 3,584 53,758 279,542 358,387 6,368 28,650
Table 10: Water Sector - Aggregated Demand Parameters Years 2005-10Equipment
Year
Cem
ent
(Ton
s)
Stee
l (T
ons)
Manpower
Road, Water & Irrigation Sectors - Total Demand Demand parameter values in Tables 5 and 10 have been combined to arrive at total
demand values for the Road and Water/Irrigation sectors of relevance. These values are presented in Table 11. It must be emphasized that in view of the means available to the consultants given the time and extent of information at their disposal, this demand assessment should not be construed in terms of definitive figures but more so as indicative trends.
20
Table 11: Total Aggregated Demand Parameters for Road and Water Sectors
Manpower Equipment
Year B
itum
en
(Ton
s)
Cem
ent
(Ton
s)
Stee
l (T
ons)
Eng
inee
r /
Dip
lom
a (N
os.)
Adm
inis
trat
ive
(Nos
.)
Skill
ed L
abor
(N
os.)
Uns
kille
d L
abor
(N
os.)
Tot
al M
anpo
wer
(N
os.)
Hea
vy E
quip
men
t (N
os.)
Tru
cks
(Nos
.)
2005-06 186,102 1,148,933 143,695 5,315 886 13,287 69,094 88,582 2,470 9,830 2006-07 192,271 1,416,462 152,931 5,800 967 14,501 75,405 96,673 2,731 10,614 2007-08 193,992 1,532,441 162,373 6,100 1,017 15,251 79,306 101,675 2,878 11,179 2008-09 212,698 1,465,290 167,354 6,175 1,029 15,437 80,275 102,916 2,924 11,304 2009-10 220,410 1,024,334 131,215 5,066 844 12,666 65,861 84,438 2,519 9,878
Total 1,005,474 6,587,461 757,567 28,457 4,743 71,142 369,941 474,283 13,523 52,804
Earthquake Reconstruction Activity Besides the major planned infrastructure projects, a considerable demand is expected to
arise over the next 4 years for reconstruction works in the earthquake affected areas. Approximately, 540,000 housing units, 7,000 educational buildings and 342 hospitals, and 4,500kms of roads have to be reconstructed/re-habilitated. The estimated total demand for roads and water sectors including earthquake related construction is shown in Table 12. Details of estimates related to earthquake reconstruction activity are placed in Annexure IV. Table 12: Roads, Water and ERRA Aggregate Demand*
Manpower Equipment
Year
Bitu
men
(T
ons)
Cem
ent
(Ton
s)
Stee
l (T
ons)
Eng
inee
r /
Dip
lom
a (N
os.)
Adm
inis
trat
ive
(Nos
.)
Skill
ed
Lab
or
(Nos
.)
Uns
kille
d L
abor
(N
os.)
Tot
al
Man
pow
er
(Nos
.)
Hea
vy
Equ
ipm
ent
(Nos
.)
Tru
cks
(Nos
.)
2005-06 186,102 3,282,667 143,695 5,315 886 13,287 69,094 88,582 2,470 9,830 2006-07 203,100 6,685,587 441,672 7,678 1,107 62,281 140,305 211,370 2,992 10,947 2007-08 210,235 5,152,152 257,162 7,117 1,133 49,447 133,366 191,064 3,270 11,678 2008-09 261,426 4,429,577 210,696 7,043 1,213 29,463 106,351 144,070 4,098 12,802 2009-10 252,895 3,088,693 160,109 5,645 967 22,016 83,245 111,873 3,302 10,877
Total => 1,113,758 22,638,675 1,213,334 32,798 5,306 176,494 532,361 746,959 16,133 56,134
*These figures do not include other MTDF sectors and small infrastructure, CDG, DGs etc., except for cement
Alternative Estimated Demand for Bitumen/Asphalt Estimates for bitumen demand were also made using the total project cost as a basis, and
the contribution of bitumen towards this cost. Table 13 shows the results using this approach which provides demand estimates ranging from 24 percent to 10 percent higher than the estimates shown in Table 12. Details are placed in Annexure V.
21
Table 13: Estimated Demand for Bitumen over the MTDF Period
Year/Tons 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Estd Total Bitumen (Tons) 245,957 251,867 258,492 269,715 276,694
Estimated Demand for Steel In the case of steel, consumption data from Pakistan Steel Mills was also obtained and
projected for the MTDF period. Historical growth rate of demand has been 10 percent over the past decade, while for the MTDF period a figure of 15 percent has been used for estimation of demand. Table 14 shows the estimated demand for steel products. Of particular interest is the demand for long products over the next five years which ranges from 3 million MT to 5.22 million MT. Approximately 55 percent of the total products consumed are long products. The details may be seen in Annexure VI.
Table 14: Historical and Projected Steel Consumption
Historical Steel Consumption (Million MT)* Projected Consumption (Million MT)
Description 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10Flat products 0.94 1.02 1.08 1.77 1.55 1.71 1.97 2.26 2.60 2.99 3.44
Long Products 1.42 1.22 1.80 1.94 2.35 2.59 2.98 3.42 3.94 4.53 5.21 Pig Iron &
Others 0.26 0.51 0.23 0.34 0.33 0.36 0.42 0.48 0.55 0.64 0.73
Total Consumption 2.62 2.75 3.11 4.05 4.24 4.66 5.36 6.17 7.09 8.15 9.38
Estimated Steel Demand for Earthquake Reconstruction 0.28 0.08 0.01 0.01
Total Steel Demand 6.45 7.17 8.16 9.39 * Source: PSMC Privatization Report. Growth rate of 15 percent in consumption/yr assumed for MTDF period, while historical is 10 percent
Supply Estimates
Bitumen The Attock Refinery Limited and the National Refinery Limited in Pakistan produce
asphalt products. Availability figures were reviewed for the last 3 fiscal years. Local production figures reflect the installed production capacity and were obtained from the Oil Companies Advisory Committee (OCAC). Import and export figures for bitumen were obtained from the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS). Local availability of bitumen in the country for the last three fiscal years is shown in Table 15:
Table 15: Bitumen Production (in MT)
Description Source Year 2004-05 Year 2003-04 Year 2002-03 Local Production OCAC 298,624 283,832 223,722
Import FBS 15,470 6,060 11,636 Export FBS 13,023 3,572 ----
Local Availability ---- 301,071 286,320 235,358
Sectoral demand distribution figures within the industry are not available. It may be assumed that of the total availability, approximately 50 percent could be made available for
22
programs of interest in the MTDF. The remaining is likely to be consumed at district and city government levels and by other sectors. A modest growth rate of 2 percent in the demand by other consumers has been assumed to determine the net bitumen available for the MTDF projects of interest. The production capacity in the country is estimated to remain static over the short to medium term.
The net supply available for infrastructure projects is projected as shown in Table 16:
Table 16: Projected Bitumen Availability
Year 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
Total Production 298,624 298,624 298,624 298,624 298,624 Consumed by other sectors 149,312 152,298 155,344 158,451 161,620
Available for Infrastructure 149,312 146,326 143,280 140,173 137,004
Cement There are a total of 25 cement factories in the country. Total country wide installed
capacity and production figures were obtained from M/s Lucky Cement. Import and export figures for cement were obtained from the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS). The industry is planning to expand capacity from the current 21.5 million MT to 42 million MT by 2008-09. Estimated sectoral demand for cement in the country is shown in Table 1720: Table 17: Sectoral Demand for Cement
Sector % Demand Housing 60% Industries 20% Infrastructure 20%
Local availability of cement in the country for the last three fiscal years and future projections are shown in Table 18. Cement available for infrastructure sector works is estimated (@ 20 percent of local availability – 10 percent is exported) to grow from 3.4 million MT to 6.4 million MT
Table 18: Projected Cement Production and Availability for Infrastructure Projects (Mil MT)
Description Source 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05Estimated
2005-6 Estimated
2006-7 Estimated
2007-8 Estimated
2008-9 Estimated 2009-10
Local Capacity Lucky ------- 16.90 17.90 21.50 25.10 37.80 42.00 42.00
Local Production Lucky 11.39 13.63 14.44 18.92 22.84 34.40 38.22 38.20
Import FBS 15.42 10.71 16.94 - - - - - Export FBS .33 .74 1.32 1.80 2.45 3.33 4.53 6.16 Local
Availability ---- 11.07 12.91 15.05 17.12 20.39 31.07 33.69 32.06 Infrastructure Sector @ 20%
of Local Availability ---- 3.42 4.08 6.21 6.74 6.41
20 Source: Lucky Cement management report 2004-05
23
Exports are assumed to grow along with installed capacity at the historical rate of about 12 percent to15 percent of capacity.
Steel Information on steel sector was obtained from the Pakistan Steel Mills Re-Rolling
Association. The steel re-rolling industry within the country has undertaken a major capacity enhancement during the last two years. The present capacity for all types of steel products stands at approximately 4 million metric tons per annum. Of this, current capacity for producing reinforcement bars is approximately 2.2 million metric tons. Data on steel production and consumption may be seen in Annexure III. The Tuwairqi Steel Mills is planned to go into production in 2007-08. This shall enhance the local steel production by another 1 million metric tons per year.
It may be established from the preceding discussion that in recent years, out of the total
annual demand of slightly above 4 million metric tons, approximately 1 million each has been met through production from the PSMC and imports (billets and finished products). The remaining demand of approximately 2 million has been met locally through import of scrap steel and the ship breaking industry. Local annual capacity for producing reinforcement bars is 2.5 million tons, local production of billet steel is only 0.3 million tons per annum. Local production of reinforcement bars from quality billet steel could not be determined.
Construction Equipment Reliable figures for availability of construction equipment are not available. Neither do
the government agencies, clients, PEC, or the private sector associations like All Pakistan Contractors Association (APCA) compile any statistics on the available machinery pool.
24
Annexure I to Appendix A – Standard Set of Equipment and Manpower Road and Water Sector Projects -Machinery and Manpower Requirement for Unit Project Categories
Equipment Requirements for Major Categories of Work Items Equipment intensive major work items as defined below have been used to assess equipment
requirements for various categories of projects in the roadway and irrigation sectors. This has been achieved by defining various standard production team compositions and average monthly production rates for each based on 25 working days in each month for each major work item. Equipment requirements for each “Unit” of each project category can then be calculated considering quantum of work under each of these major work items in each unit. Considering the number of units each year that have to be worked for each category of project, the annual equipment requirements can be accordingly assessed. Major items of work defined for this exercise with respective team compositions and associated monthly production rates are given below:
1. Earthwork
(Earth Excavation and Borrow) Standard Equipment Team Dump Truck (8m3) = 40 Front End Loaders (2m3) = 1 Bulldozer (200-300 HP) = 1 Motor Graders (150 HP) = 2 Vibratory Rollers (40 KW) = 1 Water Tankers (12,000 Liters) = 3 Farm Tractor = 1 Pneumatic Roller (25 Ton) = 1 Standard production rate of the above equipment team can be taken as 50,000 m3 per month. Following data have been assumed to arrive at the above results: • Average Haul = 40 Kms. • Cycle Time = 21/2 Hours
2. Sub-base and Aggregate Base
Standard Equipment Team Dump Truck (8m3) = 60 Front End Loader (2m3) = 2 Pugmill Mixer with attachments = 1 Motor Grader (150 HP) = 2 Water Tanker Trucks (12,000 Liters) = 4 Self Propelled Aggregate Spreader = 2 Three Wheel Roller (12-15 Tons) = 2 Tandem Rollers (10-12 Tons) = 2 Standard production rate of the above equipment team can be taken as 12,000 m3 per month. Following data have been assumed to arrive at the above results:
25
• Central Aggregate Source = 60 Km • Average Haul = 40 Km • Effective Haul = 21/2 Hours
3. Bituminous Layers
Standard Equipment Team Asphalt Hotmix Plant (120 Tons/Hours) = 1 Front End Loader (2m3) = 1 Asphalt Paving Machines with Sensor Controls = 2 Three Wheel Roller (12-15 Tons) = 1 Tandem Roller (12 Tons) = 1 Self Propelled Pneumatic Roller (15 Tons) = 1 Tipper Trucks (Suitable for Asphalt) = 20 Bitumen Distributor (400 Liter) = 1 Standard production rate of the above equipment team can be taken as 5,000 m3 per month. Following data have been assumed to arrive at the above results: • Effective Haul = 11/2 Hours • Average Haul = 20 Kms.
4. Concrete and concrete works
Standard Equipment Team Stationery Concrete Batch Plant (40m3/Hour) = 2 Concrete Transit Trucks (4m3) = 10 Concrete Pump (15 m3 / Hour) = 2 Front End Loaders (2m3) = 4 Water Tanker Trucks (12,000 Liters) = 4 Crane (25 Tons) = 2 Vibrators (Varying Sizes) = 20 Backhoes (0.5 m3) = 4 Portable Generators for Vibrators = 10 Actual production rate of the above equipment team can vary up to 6,000 m3 per month. Following data have been assumed to arrive at the above results: • Plant Capacity rated 70% efficient through the month. • Actual overall completed structure cubic output measure is a function of formwork
output and plant capacity. • Five transit trucks are considered the minimum required to sustain continuity of
concrete placement on a forty (40) kilometer cycle and to sustain a maximum daily pour of 130 m3.
5. Crushing and Screening of Aggregate
Standard Equipment Team Crushing Plant w/Primary & Secondary Crusher (120 T/Hr) = 1 Screening Plant (120 Tons / Hours) = 1 Front End Loaders (2 m3) = 2 Dump Trucks (12 m3) = 3 Wagon Drill = 1
26
Air Compressor (600 ft3/Min.) = 1 Bulldozer with Ripper (300 HP) = 1
Standard production rate of the above equipment team can be taken as 31,000 m3 per
month. An efficiency factor of 0.8 and production day of 12 hours has been assumed. Various projects were randomly selected from the roadway and irrigation sectors and their PC-I were reviewed. Earthwork, cement, steel and bitumen quantities mentioned in the PC-I and the project costs were noted for each project studied. These projects were then further categorized based on nature of work and material requirements mentioned above.
Hypothetical “Units” of project work were then defined with associated project cost and material requirements based on PC-I estimates. Project categories were defined for the roadway and irrigation sectors. Unit costs and associated per unit consumption of bitumen, cement and steel for both roadway and irrigation project categories were then determined.
Equipment & Manpower for Roadway Projects Equipment requirements for the various categories of roadway projects have been
calculated by translating various PC-I quantities in to major work items defined above. For the case of motorways, the roadway quantities conform to a carriageway of about 2 m average height. In the case of standard 2-lane NHA roads, the average embankment height works out to about 1m. Volume of concrete works in each unit category has been worked out on an assumed average cement density of 350 kg cement per cubic meter of concrete to determine equipment requirements for concrete works. Material requirements for rehabilitation and improvement categories of roadway projects per unit are very similar to those for the new two lane category of projects constructed to NHA standards. Equipment requirements have been therefore taken as the same. Equipment requirements have been calculated on actual quantity demands for the 4-lane bypass and major bridge categories of the roadway sector projects.
Contractors’ manpower costs on roadway projects vary from 5 percent to 10 percent of the construction cost in the country. An average figure of 7.5 percent has been used to determine man-power costs for each unit of roadway project categories. Number of people required for each unit has then been calculated assuming an average salary of Rs12,000/- per month. An additional 10 percent man-power has been assumed on behalf of the executing agency and the supervisory consultants. Man-power distribution between various categories within each unit has been assumed as follows: Engineers / Diploma Holders 6% Administrative Staff 1% Skilled Labour 15% Unskilled Labour 78% (i.e., remaining work force within each unit) Equipment requirement calculations are shown in Table A1. Total man-power requirements for various roadway project categories are shown in Table A2.
Equipment & Manpower for Water Sector/Irrigation Projects All categories of water sector/irrigation projects defined for this study are earthwork
intensive, except that of barrage rehabilitation. For these projects, a project unit was assumed to comprise of 6.25 million cubic meters of earthwork. Associated quantities of cement and steel
27
were worked out from the various PC-I studied for each project category. The unit project costs were accordingly determined for each category by correlating total project cost and total earthwork volume calculated for 6.25 million cubic meters of work. Equipment requirements were assessed as was done in the case of roadway project categories (refer to Table A3).
Manpower requirements for various units of water sector projects cannot be readily worked out directly from the unit construction costs, as was done in the case of roadway projects. This is because the project costs for irrigation projects, and therefore the unit costs, also contain cost of works not included in the scope of this study. Such works can include building and housing colony costs, costs of major electromechanical equipment etc and the cost of land acquisition which can vary considerably from project to project. Since many of the irrigation projects (especially canals/minors, rehabilitation etc) are earthwork intensive, and earthwork itself is man-power intensive, man-power requirements for irrigation projects have been linked to earthwork volumes instead of unit costs and taken as double that required for an equivalent volume of earthwork on a roadway project.
For the case of barrage rehabilitation works, manpower requirements have been based on
the Sukkur Barrage Rehabilitation Project which was recently completed.
Table A1 : Equipment Utilization for Road Sector Project Categories
Description Typical 2 Lane Highway 4-Lane Bypass
6-Lane Motorway
Major Bridge
Earthwork Earthwork (Cu.m. / Year) 418,810 5,547,703 2,358,572 Standard production per team (Cu.m. / Year) 600,000 600,000 600,000 No. of teams required 0.70 9.25 3.93 Team composition
Trucks 40 40 40 Heavy equipment 5 5 5 Total annual requirement
Trucks 27.92 369.85 157.24 Heavy equipment 3.49 46.23 19.65
Sub-base & Aggregate Base Base & Sub-base (Cu.m. / Year) 281,190 562,380 540,659 Standard production per team (Cu.m. / Year) 144,000 144,000 144,000 No. of teams required 1.95 3.91 3.75 Team composition
Trucks 60 60 60 Heavy equipment 11 11 11 Total annual requirement
Trucks 117.16 234.33 225.27 Heavy equipment 21.48 42.96 41.30
Bituminous Layers Bituminous work (Cu.m./Year) 47,460 94,920 191,142 Standard production per team (Cu.m./Year) 60,000 60,000 60,000 No. of teams required 0.79 1.58 3.19
28
Table A1 : Equipment Utilization for Road Sector Project Categories
Description Typical 2 Lane Highway 4-Lane Bypass
6-Lane Motorway
Major Bridge
Team composition Trucks 20 20 20 Heavy equipment 8 8 8 Total annual requirement
Trucks 15.82 31.64 63.71 Heavy equipment 6.33 12.66 25.49
Concrete Work Cement (Tons/Year) 11,350 52,100 26,000 11,900 Concrete quantity (Cu.m./Year) @ 350 kg cement/1 cu.m. concrete 32,429 148,857 74,286 34,000 Standard production per team (Cu.m./Year) 72,000 72,000 72,000 72,000 No. of teams required 0.45 2.07 1.03 0.47 Team composition
Trucks 10 10 10 10 Heavy equipment 14 14 14 14 Total annual requirement
Trucks 4.50 20.67 10.32 4.72 Heavy equipment 6.31 28.94 14.44 6.61
Crushing & Screening Works Crushing quantity (Cum./Year) 196,740 657,300 461,405 Crushing Weight (Tons/Year) 393,480 1,314,600 922,810 Standard production per team (Tons/Year) 360,000 360,000 360,000 No. of teams required 1.09 3.65 2.56 Team composition
Trucks 3 3 3 Heavy equipment 7 7 7 Total annual requirement
Trucks 3.28 10.96 7.69 Heavy equipment 7.65 25.56 17.94
Total for all work Trucks* 168.69 667.44 464.23 4.72
Heavy equipment* 45.25 156.35 118.83 6.61 Add 10% heavy equipment for quarry work 4.53 15.64 11.88 0.66
Grand Total Trucks* 168.69 667.44 464.23 9.44
Heavy equipment* 49.78 171.99 130.71 13.22 Say:
Trucks 170 670 500 9 Heavy equipment 50 175 135 15
* Equipment doubled for major bridge category to account for associated roadway works in the project.
29
Table A2: Manpower Utilization for Road Sector Project Categories
Category Discussion
Typical 2 Lane Highway
4-Lane Bypass
6-Lane Motorway
Major Bridge
Cost of 1 Unit (million Rs.) 1,600 4,300 5,700 500 Construction Cost (million Rs.) (Assumed at 75% to 85% of Unit Cost)
85.0% 1,360 75.0% 3,225 85.0% 4,845 85.0% 425
Contractor's Manpower Cost (million)(Taken as 7.5% of Construction Cost -usual variation from 5% to 10%)
7.5% 102 7.5% 242 7.5% 363 7.5% 32
Assumed average monthly salary (Rs.) 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000Contractor's manpower (Nos.) (Manpower Cost / Avg. Salary) 708 1,680 2,523 221
Client's & Consultant's manpower (Nos.) (10% of Contractor's manpower)
10.0% 71 10.0% 168 10.0% 252 10.0% 22
Total manpower (Nos.) (Manpower of Contractor + Client + Consultant)
779 1,848 2,776 243
Say ======> 800 1,800 2,800 250
Table A3: Equipment Utilization for Water/Irrigation Sector Project Categories
Description Dams Barrage Rehabilitation
Lining ofCanals
Rehabilitation Canals / Drains
New Canal
Earthwork Earthwork (Cu.m. / Year) 6,250,000 260,000 6,250,000 6,250,000 6,250,000Standard production per team (Cu.m/Yr) 600,000 600,000 600,000 600,000 600,000No. of teams required 10.42 0.43 10.42 10.42 10.42 Team composition
Trucks 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 Heavy equipment 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Total annual requirement Trucks 416.67 17.33 416.67 416.67 416.67
Heavy equipment 52.08 2.17 52.08 52.08 52.08 Concrete Work
Total Cement (Tons / Year) 205,000 80,000 170,000 2,600 46,300 Concrete quantity (Cu.m./Year) @ 350 kg cement / 1 cu.m. concrete 585,714 228,571 485,714 7,429 132,286Standard production per team (Cu.m/Yr) 72,000 72,000 72,000 72,000 72,000 No. of teams required 8.13 3.17 6.75 0.10 1.84 Team composition
30
Table A3: Equipment Utilization for Water/Irrigation Sector Project Categories
Description Dams Barrage Rehabilitation
Lining ofCanals
Rehabilitation Canals / Drains
New Canal
Trucks 10 10 10 10 10 Heavy equipment 14 14 14 14 14
Total annual requirement Trucks 81.35 31.75 67.46 1.03 18.37
Heavy equipment 113.89 44.44 94.44 1.44 25.72 Total for all work
Trucks 498.02 49.08 484.13 417.70 435.04 Heavy equipment 165.97 46.61 146.53 53.53 77.81
Add 10% heavy equipment for quarry work 16.60 4.66 14.65 5.35 7.78
Grand Total Trucks 498.02 49.08 484.13 417.70 435.04
Heavy equipment 182.57 51.27 161.18 58.88 85.59 Say
Trucks 500 50 490 420 440 Heavy equipment 175 50 155 60 85
31
Annexure II to Appendix A – Annual Demand for Materials, Manpower and Equipment on Road Sector Projects
Annual Demand Materials, Manpower and Equipment for Road Sector Projects
Table 5i : Road Sector - Demand Parameters Year 2005 – 06 Manpower Equipment
Category B
itum
en
(Ton
s)
Cem
ent
(Ton
s)
Stee
l (T
ons)
Eng
inee
r /
Dip
lom
a (N
os.)
Adm
inis
trat
ive
(Nos
.)
Skill
ed
Lab
or
(Nos
.)
Uns
kille
d L
abor
(N
os.)
Tot
al
Man
pow
er (N
os.)
Hea
vy
Equ
ipm
ent
(Nos
.)
Tru
cks
(Nos
.)
Construction of 2 lane road NHA stds 53,760 79,244 11,520 335 56 838 4,357 5,585 349 1,187
Improvement of 2 lane road NHA stds 18,076 40,847 7,559 113 19 282 1,465 1,878 117 399
Construction of 2 lane road provincial hwy 55,771 82,205 11,951 348 58 869 4,519 5,794 362 1,231
Improvement of 2 lane road provincial hwy 40,385 91,259 16,888 252 42 629 3,273 4,196 262 892
Construction of 4 lane city bypass NHA 3,171 13,541 2,339 28 5 70 365 468 45 174
Construction of 6 lane mtwys NHA 14,940 31,839 4,898 206 34 514 2,674 3,429 165 612
Major bridges - 12,924 3,041 16 3 41 212 272 16 10
Total ====> 186,102 351,858 58,196 1,297 216 3,243 16,865 21,622 1,318 4,505
Table 5ii: Road Sector - Demand Parameters Year 2006 – 07 Manpower Equipment
Category
Bitu
men
(T
ons)
Cem
ent
(Ton
s)
Stee
l (T
ons)
Eng
inee
r /
Dip
lom
a (N
os.)
Adm
inis
trat
ive
(Nos
.)
Skill
ed
Lab
or
(Nos
.)
Uns
kille
d L
abor
(N
os.)
Tot
al
Man
pow
er (N
os.)
Hea
vy
Equ
ipm
ent
(Nos
.)
Tru
cks
(Nos
.) Construction of 2 lane
road NHA stds 58,638 86,434 12,565 366 61 914 4,752 6,092 381 1,295
Improvement of 2 lane road NHA stds 21,418 48,399 8,957 134 22 334 1,736 2,225 139 473
Construction of 2 lane road provincial hwy 55,771 82,205 11,951 348 58 869 4,519 5,794 362 1,231
Improvement of 2 lane road provincial hwy 40,385 91,259 16,888 252 42 629 3,273 4,196 262 892
Construction of 4 lane city bypass NHA 3,738 15,964 2,758 33 6 83 430 552 54 205
Construction of 6 lane mtwys NHA 12,322 26,259 4,040 170 28 424 2,206 2,828 136 505
Major bridges - 17,493 4,116 22 4 55 287 368 22 13
Total ====> 192,271 368,013 61,274 1,323 221 3,308 17,202 22,054 1,356 4,614
32
Table 5iii: Road Sector - Demand Parameters Year 2007 – 08
Manpower Equipment
Category
Bitu
men
(T
ons)
Cem
ent
(Ton
s)
Stee
l (T
ons)
Eng
inee
r /
Dip
lom
a (N
os.)
Adm
inis
trat
ive
(Nos
.)
Skill
ed
Lab
or
(Nos
.)
Uns
kille
d L
abor
(N
os.)
Tot
al
Man
pow
er (N
os.)
Hea
vy
Equ
ipm
ent
(Nos
.)
Tru
cks
(Nos
.)
Construction of 2 lane road NHA stds 51,000 75,175 10,929 318 53 795 4,133 5,299 331 1,126
Improvement of 2 lane road NHA stds 25,054 56,615 10,477 156 26 390 2,030 2,603 163 553
Construction of 2 lane road provincial hwy 55,771 82,205 11,951 348 58 869 4,519 5,794 362 1,231
Improvement of 2 lane road provincial
hwy 40,385 91,259 16,888 252 42 629 3,273 4,196 262 892
Construction of 4 lane city bypass NHA 6,890 29,426 5,083 61 10 152 793 1,017 99 378
Construction of 6 lane mtwys NHA 14,892 31,737 4,883 205 34 513 2,666 3,418 165 610
Major bridges - 11,372 2,676 14 2 36 186 239 14 9
Total ====> 193,992 377,789 62,886 1,354 226 3,385 17,601 22,565 1,396 4,799
Table 5iv: Road Sector - Demand Parameters Year 2008 – 09 Manpower Equipment
Category
Bitu
men
(T
ons)
Cem
ent
(Ton
s)
Stee
l (T
ons)
Eng
inee
r /
Dip
lom
a (N
os.)
Adm
inis
trat
ive
(Nos
.)
Skill
ed
Lab
or
(Nos
.)
Uns
kille
d L
abor
(N
os.)
Tot
al
Man
pow
er (N
os.)
Hea
vy
Equ
ipm
ent
(Nos
.)
Tru
cks
(Nos
.) Construction of 2 lane
road NHA stds 80,755 119,034 17,305 503 84 1,259 6,544 8,390 524 1,783
Improvement of 2 lane road NHA stds 23,495 53,092 9,825 146 24 366 1,904 2,441 153 519
Construction of 2 lane road provincial hwy 55,771 82,205 11,951 348 58 869 4,519 5,794 362 1,231
Improvement of 2 lane road provincial
hwy 40,385 91,259 16,888 252 42 629 3,273 4,196 262 892
Construction of 4 lane city bypass NHA 3,732 15,938 2,753 33 6 83 429 551 54 205
Construction of 6 lane mtwys NHA 8,561 18,246 2,807 118 20 295 1,533 1,965 95 351
Major bridges - 55,692 13,104 70 12 176 913 1,170 70 42
Total ====> 212,698 435,466 74,632 1,470 245 3,676 19,115 24,507 1,520 5,022
33
Table 5v: Road Sector – Demand Parameters Year 2009 – 10
Manpower Equipment
Category B
itum
en
(Ton
s)
Cem
ent
(Ton
s)
Stee
l (T
ons)
Eng
inee
r /
Dip
lom
a (N
os.)
Adm
inis
trat
ive
(Nos
.)
Skill
ed
Lab
or
(Nos
.)
Uns
kille
d L
abor
(N
os.)
Tot
al
Man
pow
er (N
os.)
Hea
vy
Equ
ipm
ent
(Nos
.)
Tru
cks
(Nos
.)
Construction of 2 lane road NHA stds 93,418 137,700 20,018 582 97 1,456 7,570 9,706 607 2,062
Improvement of 2 lane road NHA stds 17,686 39,966 7,396 110 18 276 1,433 1,838 115 390
Construction of 2 lane road provincial hwy 55,771 82,205 11,951 348 58 869 4,519 5,794 362 1,231
Improvement of 2 lane road provincial hwy 40,385 91,259 16,888 252 42 629 3,273 4,196 262 892
Construction of 4 lane city bypass NHA 4,589 19,599 3,386 41 7 102 528 677 66 252
Construction of 6 lane mtwys NHA 8,561 18,246 2,807 118 20 295 1,533 1,965 95 351
Major bridges - 46,298 10,894 58 10 146 759 973 58 35
Total ====> 220,410 435,273 73,339 1,509 251 3,772 19,615 25,148 1,565 5,214
34
Annexure III to Appendix A – Annual Demand for Materials, Manpower and Equipment on Water/Irrigation Projects
Annual Demand for Materials, Manpower & Equipment on Water Sector Projects
Table 10i: Water/Irrigation Sector - Demand Parameters Year 2005-06 Manpower Equipment
Category C
emen
t (T
ons)
Stee
l (T
ons)
Eng
inee
r /
Dip
lom
a (N
os.)
Adm
inis
trat
ive
(Nos
.)
Skill
ed
Lab
or
(Nos
.)
Uns
kille
d L
abor
(N
os.)
Tot
al
Man
pow
er
(Nos
.)
Hea
vy
Equ
ipm
ent
(Nos
.)
Tru
cks
(Nos
.)
Dams 160,031 16,393 262 44 656 3,410 4,372 137 390 Barrage 80,000 700 30 5 75 390 500 50 50
Lining of Canals 364,286 13,929 720 120 1,800 9,360 12,000 332 1,050 Rehabilitation Work 13,170 4,052 1,702 284 4,255 22,126 28,367 304 2,128
Canal 179,588 50,424 1,303 217 3,258 16,943 21,721 330 1,707
Total ====> 797,075 85,499 4,018 670 10,044 52,229 66,960 1,152 5,325
Table 10ii: Water/Irrigation Sector - Demand Parameters Year 2006-07
Manpower Equipment
Category
Cem
ent
(Ton
s)
Stee
l (T
ons)
Eng
inee
r /
Dip
lom
a (N
os.)
Adm
inis
trat
ive
(Nos
.)
Skill
ed
Lab
or
(Nos
.)
Uns
kille
d L
abor
(N
os.)
Tot
al
Man
pow
er
(Nos
.)
Hea
vy
Equ
ipm
ent
(Nos
.)
Tru
cks
(Nos
.)
Dams 210,954 21,610 346 58 864 4,495 5,763 180 515 Barrage 80,000 700 30 5 75 390 500 50 50
Lining of Canals 592,571 22,657 1,171 195 2,928 15,226 19,520 540 1,708 Rehabilitation Work 14,210 4,372 1,836 306 4,591 23,873 30,607 328 2,296
Canal 150,714 42,317 1,094 182 2,734 14,219 18,229 277 1,432
Total ====> 1,048,449 91,656 4,477 746 11,193 58,202 74,618 1,375 6,000
Table 10iii: Water/Irrigation Sector - Demand Parameters Year 2007-08
Manpower Equipment
Category
Cem
ent
(Ton
s)
Stee
l (T
ons)
Eng
inee
r /
Dip
lom
a (N
os.)
Adm
inis
trat
ive
(Nos
.)
Skill
ed
Lab
or
(Nos
.)
Uns
kille
d L
abor
(N
os.)
Tot
al
Man
pow
er
(Nos
.)
Hea
vy
Equ
ipm
ent
(Nos
.)
Tru
cks
(Nos
.)
Dams 268,288 27,483 440 73 1,099 5,717 7,329 229 654 Barrage 80,000 700 30 5 75 390 500 50 50
Lining of Canals 641,143 24,514 1,267 211 3,168 16,474 21,120 585 1,848 Rehabilitation Work 14,845 4,568 1,918 320 4,796 24,939 31,973 343 2,398
Canal 150,377 42,222 1,091 182 2,728 14,187 18,188 276 1,429
Total ====> 1,154,652 99,487 4,747 791 11,866 61,706 79,110 1,482 6,379
35
Table 10iv: Water/Irrigation Sector - Demand Parameters Year 2008-09
Manpower Equipment
Category
Cem
ent
(Ton
s)
Stee
l (T
ons)
Eng
inee
r /
Dip
lom
a (N
os.)
Adm
inis
trat
ive
(Nos
.)
Skill
ed
Lab
or
(Nos
.)
Uns
kille
d L
abor
(N
os.)
Tot
al
Man
pow
er
(Nos
.)
Hea
vy
Equ
ipm
ent
(Nos
.)
Tru
cks
(Nos
.)
Dams 56,702 5,809 93 15 232 1,208 1,549 48 138 Barrage 80,000 700 30 5 75 390 500 50 50
Lining of Canals 680,000 26,000 1,344 224 3,360 17,472 22,400 620 1,960Rehabilitation Work 13,864 4,266 1,792 299 4,479 23,291 29,860 320 2,240
Canal 199,258 55,947 1,446 241 3,615 18,798 24,100 366 1,894
Total ====> 1,029,824 92,722 4,705 784 11,761 61,159 78,410 1,404 6,281
Table 10v: Water/Irrigation Sector - Demand Parameters Year 2009-10
Manpower Equipment
Category
Cem
ent
(Ton
s)
Stee
l (T
ons)
Eng
inee
r /
Dip
lom
a (N
os.)
Adm
inis
trat
ive
(Nos
.)
Skill
ed
Lab
or
(Nos
.)
Uns
kille
d L
abor
(N
os.)
Tot
al
Man
pow
er
(Nos
.)
Hea
vy
Equ
ipm
ent
(Nos
.)
Tru
cks
(Nos
.)
Dams 56,702 5,809 93 15 232 1,208 1,549 48 138 Barrage 80,000 700 30 5 75 390 500 50 50
Lining of Canals 313,529 11,988 620 103 1,549 8,056 10,328 286 904 Rehabilitation Work 14,817 4,559 1,915 319 4,787 24,892 31,913 342 2,393
Canal 124,014 34,820 900 150 2,250 11,700 15,000 228 1,179
Total ====> 589,061 57,876 3,557 593 8,893 46,246 59,290 954 4,664
36
Annexure IV to Appendix A – Demand due to Earthquake Reconstruction Work
Estimates of Inputs for Roads Work Approximately 4,500kms of roads have to be reconstructed. Bitumen, Cement and Steel
requirements have been calculated using 4, 6 and 6 percent cost of the project respectively. The cost contribution of these inputs was then converted to tonnage by dividing by prevalent unit price of each. Construction progress is estimated at 10, 15, 45, and 30 percent over the next four years. Estimated inputs are shown in Table 1:
Table 1: Estimated Inputs for Reconstruction of Roads
Year Bitumen (MT) Cement (MT) Steel (MT)
Heavy Equipment
(Nos) Trucks (Nos)
2006-07 10,828 46,552 7,941 261 333 2007-08 16,243 69,828 11,912 392 500 2008-09 48,728 209,483 35,735 1,175 1,499 2009-10 32,485 139,655 23,824 783 999
Total 108,284 465,517 79,412 2,610 3,330
Estimated Inputs for Housing & Buildings Approximately 540,000 houses, 7,000 educational buildings and 342 hospitals/basic
health units have to be reconstructed. Six tons of cement and 0.65 tons of steel per housing unit have been estimated based on a typical design to be adopted. Similarly, for each educational building, 15 tons of cement and 3.5 tons of steel and for each hospital on the average 20 tons of cement and 2.5 tons of steel are estimated to be consumed.
80 percent of the housing units are estimated to be constructed in the first year, and the balance 20 percent in the second year. For educational buildings and hospitals, the construction progress is assumed to be 50 percent, 30 percent and 20 percent from 2007-08 thru 2009-10. Estimated cement and steel inputs for buildings are shown in Table 2:
Total Estimated Requirements for Earthquake Reconstruction Works Total requirements for reconstruction of roads and buildings are shown in Table 3.
Table 2: Estimated Inputs for Building WorksYear Cement Steel
2006-07 280,800 1,733 2007-08 82,878 800 2008-09 7,607 220 2009-10 5,071 147
Total 371,284 2,754
Table 3: Total Estimated Inputs Road and Building Works
Year Bitumen (Tons) Cement (Tons) Steel (Tons)
Heavy Equipment (Nos)
Trucks (Nos)
2006-07 10,828 2,638,552 288,741 261 333 2007-08 16,243 773,748 94,789 392 500 2008-09 48,728 243,035 43,342 1,175 1,499 2009-10 32,485 162,023 28,895 783 999
Total 108,284 3,794,989 450,696 2,610 3,330
37
Annexure V to Appendix A – Estimated Requirements for Bitumen
Estimated Bitumen Requirements Table 1 shows the historic demand for bitumen by provincial road sector projects from 2002 thru 2006. The number of projects and the average cost has been obtained from the Annual Development Plans. Required bitumen has been estimated from the cost of bitumen in each project (taken to be 3%) divided by the cost/ton of bitumen. The requirement of bitumen in each province as a percentage of the total average bitumen/year has then been determined. Table 1: Historic Demand for Bitumen 2002-06; Provincial Road Projects
Sector/Province No. of
Projects Avg. cost (Rs/Mil)
Total Cost (Rs/Mil)
Total Cost of
Bitumen (Rs/Mil)
Bitumen Required
(Tons)
Average Bitumen Required each year
(Tons)
Provincial requirement as
%age of requirement in
the Punjab Roads Punjab 653 415 270,995 8,130 489,072 97,814 48% Sind 742 191 141,722 4,252 255,770 51,154 25%
NWFP 743 117 86,931 2,608 156,887 31,377 15% Balochistan 1229 56 68,824 2,065 124,209 24,842 12%
All Provinces 3367 153 568,472 17,054 1,025,938 205,188 100% Data obtained from the provincial C&W Department (Punjab) for 2005-06 provided an estimate of 100,000 tons. The bitumen required by each province was then estimated as shown in Table 2.
Table 2: Estimated Demand of Bitumen for Provincial Road Projects in 2005-06 (Metric
Tons) Province Bitumen (MT)
C&W Punjab 100,000 Sindh 52,297 NWFP 32,078
Balochistan 25,397 Total 209,772
Table 3 shows the Annual projected demand for bitumen in road projects based on the
MTDF for NHA and for the provinces. The demand by the provinces has been assumed to grow at a modest 2% over the next four years. Total demand is estimated to range from 246,000 MT to 277,000 MT in 2009-10. Table 3: Projected Demand for Bitumen in Road Projects (NHA & Provincial Departments) 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10NHA Total Allocation (Mil PKR) 20,050 21,000 22,300 26,100 27,500 Cost of Bitumen (Mil PKR) @3% 602 630 669 783 825 Bitumen required (Tons) 36,185 37,899 40,245 47,103 49,630 Provincial departments Bitumen required (Tons) 209,772 213,968 218,247 222,612 227,064Total (Tons) 245,957 251,867 258,492 269,715 276,694
38
Annexure VI to Appendix A – Steel Production and Consumption
Pakistan - Steel Production and Consumption Data At present, the Pakistan Steel Mills Corporation is the only steel production unit in the country. The PSMC has an annual capacity of 1 million metric tons. Production figures for the years 2003-04 and 2004-05 are shown in Table 1.
Historical steel consumption and projections are shown in Table 2. The estimated steel
requirement for earthquake re-construction projects up to 2009-10 was added to the projections. Total steel demand over the next four years is from 6.45 to 9.38 Million MT. Long products demand is estimated to vary from 3.42 to 5.21 Million MT.
Table 2: Historical and Projected Steel Consumption Historical Steel Consumption (Million MT)* Projected Consumption (Million MT)
Description 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10Flat products 0.94 1.02 1.08 1.77 1.55 1.71 1.97 2.26 2.60 2.99 3.44
Long Products 1.42 1.22 1.80 1.94 2.35 2.59 2.98 3.42 3.94 4.53 5.21
Pig Iron & Others 0.26 0.51 0.23 0.34 0.33 0.36 0.42 0.48 0.55 0.64 0.73 Total
Consumption 2.62 2.75 3.11 4.05 4.24 4.66 5.36 6.17 7.09 8.15 9.38
Estimated Steel Demand Earthquake Reconstruction 0.28 0.08 0.01 0.01
Total Steel Demand 6.45 7.17 8.16 9.38 * Source: PSMC - Privatization Report. Growth rate of 15% in consumption/yr assumed for MTDF period, historical is 10%
Historical Sources of Steel Supply
Demand has been met thru domestic production and imports as shown in Table 3. Domestic production includes output from re-rollers and smelters that use imported scrap and plates from ship-breaking.
Table 3: Historical Steel Production & Imports (MT)
Description 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 Domestic Production 1.91 1.79 2.31 2.70 2.92
Imports 0.71 0.96 0.80 1.35 1.32 Total 2.62 2.75 3.11 4.05 4.24
Table 1: Pakistan Steel Mill - Historical Production Figures in Tons RAW STEEL
Products Total Slab Bloom C/Billet
Rolled Billets
Hot Rolled
Cold Rolled Galvanized
Capacity Utilization
%
2000-01 944,346 585,893 219,916 138,537 276,217 441,987 139,905 56,296 86
2001-02 889,906 525,026 213,050 144,055 269,228 381,356 125,397 41,102 81
2002-03 1,001,031 678,069 161,268 161,694 246,685 545,875 153,168 39,264 91
2003-04 1,029,567 686,425 192,275 150,867 277,831 507,168 146,245 44,501 94
2004-05 979,010 746,853 131,784 100,373 214,825 531,914 164,499 44,898 89 2005-06 (Estd. 730,000 558,400 99,145 72,455 137,156 465,704 185,750 51,933 66
Amer Zafar Durrani, Aized H. Mir, Hasan Afzal Zaidi, Dr. Zafar Raja, Hiam Abbas, Huma Waheed,
Ermeena Malik, Abid Abrar Hussain, Mehreen Tanvir, Nazifa Sheikh, Shaukat Javed, Sohail Abidi,
Ahsan Siddiqi, S. M. Zakir, Abdul Majeed, Mr. Z. M. Malik, Mr. S. Bukhari, Mr. O. Mansoor, Frida Khan,
Unjela Siddiqi and Huma Ajam
