Presentation of CSLI

Fall 2009 Survey Findings +

Annapolis Election Musings

Dan Nataf Ph.D.Director

Center for the Study of Local Issues

Anne Arundel Community College

101 College ParkwayArnold, MD 21012-1895http:www2.aacc.edu/csli

ddnataf@aacc.edu410.777.2733

County – Right/Wrong Direction: Spring ‘99 to Fall ‘09

5754

5855

6266

60 61 6258 58

5357 55

51 52 51 50 5247

2327 25 24 23

15

2621

2531

2429 27 26

29 2733 32 31

28

20 19 1720

1519

1418

13 12

19 18 16 18 20 2116 17 17

25

Right 5152

Wrong 3427

Unsure 15 21

05

10152025303540455055606570

Sp '9

9

Fa '9

9

Sp '0

0

Fa '0

0

Sp '0

1

Fa '0

1

Sp '0

2

Fa '0

2

Sp '0

3

Fa '0

3

Sp '0

4

Fa '0

4

Sp '0

5

Fa '0

5

Sp '0

6

Fa '0

6

Sp '0

7

Fa '0

7

Sp '0

8

Fa '0

8

Sp '0

9

Fa '0

9

Right Wrong Unsure

Findings – Most Important Problem Fall 2003-Fall 2009

8

12

8 7 7

15

7

12

8

23

38

48

33

17

54

65

6

11 119

10

64

68

7

17

22

12

16

1213

16

12 12 1210

87

1315

8

14

18

22

16

21

16 16

12

9

5 5

14

1110

17

9

14

9

1211

12

76

45

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

F '03 S '04 F '04 S '05 F '05 S '06 F '06 S '07 F '07 S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 Mean

Economy

Taxes – too high

Crime

Education

Growth/development

Traffic congestion/problems

Fall 2009

Spring 2009

Fall 2008

Spring 2008

Median

The economy…rate economic conditionsHow would you rate economic conditions in…

excellent, good, only fair or poor?

The economy…compare AAC/USA excellent+good

The economy…does this apply?

Confidence in federal govt. 2008/2009

“Very” plus “somewhat confident” by party, 2009/08

When will the economy improve?

Economic Condition This year

Next year

Future year

Median year

N.A.

A stabilization of housing values 8 35 51 2012 7A return to steady growth of the economy

5 32 59 2012 5

A major reduction in the unemployment rate

4 31 61 2012 4

A return to a better balance between revenues and expenditures for state and local government budgets

3 16 68 2014 13

A return to a better balance between revenues and expenditures for the federal government’s budget

3 10 73 2015 14

Perceptions of 2020

Perceptions of 2020: Health Care by Ideology and Party

Health Care Quality/Access

Budget Issues: Are Cuts “about right,” “too big” or “too small”

Budget cutting measure About right

Too

big

Too small

N.A.

The governor’s policy of making state employees take three to 10 days of unpaid leave

51 37 7 6

Laying off 200 state employees 38 45 7 9The proposal to cut $210 million in state aid to localities in Maryland

32 41 8 19

The proposal to cut $15 million in local aid to Anne Arundel County

31 47 9 13

Cutting a combined $30 million in health-related funding

23 60 6 11

Budget Issues: Support or Oppose various Proposals”

Support Oppose Unsure N.A.

Maintaining the tuition freeze at the University of Maryland

79 15 5 1

Maintaining the level of state funding for public schools

78 17 4 1

Requiring school employees to take several unpaid days off

36 59 4 1

Shifting the cost of teachers’ pensions to local governments

24 58 15 4

Budget Issues: Party and Ideology

  All Dem Rep Ind. D-RMaintaining the tuition freeze at the University of Maryland 79 79 79 85 0Maintaining the level of state funding for public schools 78 81 76 77 5Requiring school employees to take several unpaid days off 36 39 36 30 3Shifting the cost of teachers’ pensions to local governments 24 23 28 20 -5

  All DemRep Ind. D-R

The governor’s policy of making state employees take three to 10 days of unpaid leave

51 55 50 47 5

Laying off 200 state employees

38 37 40 46 -3

The proposal to cut $210 million in state aid to localities in Maryland

32 29 39 36 -10

The proposal to cut $15 million in local aid to Anne Arundel County

31 30 36 27 -6

Cutting a combined $30 million in health-related funding

23 17 30 28 -13

  O’Malley doing poor job %

Ideology   Conservative 55

Moderate 33Liberal 10

Conservative-Liberal 45Party  

Democrat 21Republican 62Independent 38

Democrat-Republican -41

% saying “support”

% saying “about right” O’Malley’s job balancing budgetGood=13%; Okay=42%; Poor=38%

Problems facing federal government: What concerns you the most by party

Main problem… Overall Dem Rep Indep. D-R

Deficit/Debt 10 7 15 7 -8Budget/Overspending 8 5 11 8 -6Defense/Homeland Sec./Terrorism

4 2 7 0 -5

Economy 21 20 22 17 -2Unemployment 4 3 3 8 0Taxes 2 2 3 3 -1Wars in Afghan/Iraq 9 12 4 15 8Health care 18 20 15 19 5Environment/Climate change 2 3 0 0 3Education 1 3 0 0 3

National Issues:: Presidential job approval

3934 35

28 24

5347

37 33 32 3025

6154

010203040506070

Fall '06 Spring'07

Fall '07 Spring'08

Fall '08 Spring'09

Fall '09

CSLI Gallup

Bush

Obama

National Issues:: % approving of president’s job by party

Annapolis Mayoral Election: A “change” election

Major issues1.Leadership style and competency 2.Everything else

Leadership style and competency1. Retrospective voting punish incumbents

a. Punish incumbents * Individuals associated with incumbent * Incumbent party

Presents a defensive challenge to all Democrats• Major concern over ‘city manager’ issue•Ties to Ellen Moyer•Ties to “Democratic party machine”

Annapolis Mayoral Election: A “change” election

Problems posed to Democratic party/Josh Cohen

*Confusing election process/divided Democratic electorate

1. Plurality winner - Zina Pierre – was against ‘city manager’ – withdrew due to background issues, managing $ - process alienates black Democratic electorate!

*Can Cohen win back black vote?

2. Josh Cohen and Trudi McFall divide white vote; McFall endorses Republican candidate… * Can Cohen win back McFall vote?

3. City manager issue prominent divide between Cohen/McFall/Other Democratic council candidates *Cohen most associated with Moyer – ‘change’ election

without city manager – not good combo!

Annapolis Mayoral Election: A “change” election

Problems posed to Republican party/David Cordle

1.Candidate is 8 year veteran of council – could share blame for problems facing city – not ‘enough change.’

2.Recent convert to city manager position – perceived as too opportunistic?

3. Faces 2 to 1 D/R disparity in registered voters

4.Must depend on ‘independent’ voters and defecting Dems to win.

5.Faced with Chris Fox – crypto-libertarian likely to take many more voters from Cordle than Cohen.

Annapolis Mayoral Election: A “change” election

Possible scenarios

1.Change momentum proves dominant – strong anti-incumbent feeling pushes Republican and independent voters to vote for Fox, black voters stay home, Fox beats Cordle and Cohen by a hair.

2.Change momentum proves strong but ‘with experience’Republican voters strongly line up behind Cordle, Fox loses badly due to inexperience; Cohen comes in second due to lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters

3.Change momentum overcome by party loyalty – Cohen rallies black Democrats, McFall Democrats reluctantly back Cohen, fiscally conservative /pro-business Republicans split between Cordle and Fox, independents split evenly

Rep 2

Dem 1Dem3

Dem 4

Dem 6

Dem 7

Dem 8

Rep 5

Facts from 2005Total reg. voters: 23464

Votes cast: 7893Turnout: 33.6%

Moyer 3612, Renaut 2850Kelley 1404Ward 1:Dem 800 Rep 565 +265Ward 2:Dem 652 Rep 696 +44Ward 3:Dem 487 Other 166 (Write in –Scott Bowling) +321Ward 4:Dem 436 Rep 163 +273Ward 5: Dem 266 Rep 554 +288Ward 6:Dem 255 Unaffil 357 +102Ward 7:Dem 549 Rep 471 +78Ward 8:Dem 976 Rep 309 +667

Rep 5