Recap of Recent CSLI Survey Findings from Fall 2008

Dan Nataf, Ph.D.

Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues

Part of the Sarbanes Center for Public and Community Service

Anne Arundel Community College

Jan. 15, 2009

Economic Anxiety – Multiple IndicatorsMost Important Problem

‘03 ‘04 '04 ‘05 ‘05 ‘06 '06 '07 '07 '08 ‘08Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

8

12

8 7 7

15

7

12

8

23

38

15

8

14

18

22

16

21

16 16

12

9

Economy

Taxes – too high

Growth/development

Education

Traffic congestion/problems

Crime

Economic Anxiety – Multiple IndicatorsPerceptions of Local Economic Conditions

2002

2003

2003

2004

2004

2005

2005

2006

2006

2007

2007

2008

2008

2008

Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Na-tional

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

66

55 5662

74 7471

7471 71 69

5549

5

31

42 4236

26 2528

25 26 2630

4449

95

Excellent+GoodFair+Poor

Economic Anxiety – Multiple Indicators

Applicability of Specific Conditions

Significant losses in stocks or

retirement accounts

Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as

the cost of living

Hard to af-ford cost of taxes

Hard to af-ford cost of utilities such as

electricity or gas

Hard to af-ford cost of trans-portation

Health care in-

surance is unavail-able, too

expensive or inade-

quate

Facing the possibility of unem-ployment

Unable to find af-fordable housing

Facing the possibility of house

foreclosure or loss

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

56

47

61

40

35

11

21

6

71

59 58

50

3230

15

11

4

Applies Spring 2008Applies Fall 2008

CSLI Spring vs. Fall 2008 Survey

Very confident Somewhat confident Not very confident 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

5

40

53

Confidence in Federal Government's Handling of Fiscal Crisis (in percent)

Economic Anxiety – Multiple Indicators

Confidence in Fed’s Handling of Crisis

Graph 2: County Trend - Right or Wrong Direction

57 5458 55

6266

60 61 6258 58

5357 55

51 52 51 50 52

2327 25 24 23

15

2621

2531

2429 27 26 29 27

33 32 31

20 19 17 2015

1914

1813 12

19 18 16 18 20 2116 17 17

Right 51

Wrong 34

Unsure 15

05

10152025303540455055606570

Sp

99

Fa 9

9

Sp

00

Fa 0

0

Sp

01

Fa 0

1

Sp

02

Fa 0

2

Sp

03

Fa 0

3

Sp

04

Fa '0

4

Sp

'05

Fa '0

5

Sp

'06

Fa '0

6

Sp

'07

Fa '0

7

Sp

'08

Fa '0

8

Right Wrong Unsure

Non Economic Local Issues: Right vs. Wrong Direction

Support

Oppose Unsure

Noanswe

r

Total

A $500 ambulance fee to help pay for county services?

26 67 6 1 100

Creating or increasing fees to sports leagues that use public parks to cover the maintenance of those parks?

50 45 4 1 100

Increasing impact fees on new construction in our county?

63 31 5 1 100

Increasing the tax on hotel stays from 7 percent to 10 percent

33 59 6 1 99

Efforts by police to identify illegal immigrants and refer them to federal immigration services?

70 25 4 1 100

Environmental measures meant to restrict development in critical areas?

84 11 3 1 99

Decreasing the drinking age to 18

29 68 2 1 100

Other Local Issues…

State Issues – Wind Turbines

Yes No No answer0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

80

15

5

“Do you think that the STATE government should make it easier to install wind turbines to generate energy, even in scenic places like across the river from Annapolis where the old radio antennas are located or in state parks in Western Maryland?”

State Issues - Legalize Slots 2008 – by County

slots by County

68%

59%

50%

Maryland/AA County (same)

For 59%

Against 41%

CSLI Fall Poll: For 52%, Against 43%

National Issues:President Bush’s Job Approval in Anne Arundel County

vs. USA

3934 35

2824

05

1015202530354045

Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '08

CSLI Gallup

Semi-annual Surveys: Sample of Findings

Political Horse Race: Estimating Election Results

Obama McCain0

10

20

30

40

50

60

48.250.049.5 50.1

Presidential Election in Anne Arundel County: Actual vs. Predicted

Obama Obama

McCain McCain

Actual Predicted

Actual Predicted

Harris by County

0.58

0.44

0.30

Pushpins

Election Recap 2008

Harris Vote by County

Kratovil vs. Obama Vote by County

1st Congressional Kratovil Harris Libertarian Obama McCain Kratovil+

Anne Arundel 46.3% 51.2% 2.5% 48.2% 50.0% -2.9%

Baltimore County 40.7% 56.9% 2.4% 56.8% 43.2% -16.1%

Caroline 51.8% 45.1% 3.1% 37.9% 62.1% 13.8%

Cecil 49.4% 47.5% 3.1% 42.4% 57.6% 7.0%

Dorchester 56.4% 40.7% 2.9% 45.5% 54.5% 10.9%

Harford 40.5% 56.7% 2.8% 40.2% 59.8% 0.3%

Kent 65.5% 32.7% 1.8% 50.0% 50.0% 15.5%

Queen Anne’s 54.0% 44.2% 1.8% 36.1% 63.9% 17.9%

Somerset 59.0% 39.2% 1.8% 48.6% 51.4% 10.4%

Talbot 55.0% 43.1% 1.9% 44.6% 55.4% 10.4%

Wicomico 56.0% 42.0% 2.0% 46.8% 53.2% 9.2%

Worcester 53.2% 44.8% 2.0% 42.1% 57.9% 11.1%

Total 49.1% 48.5% 2.4% 45.0% 55.0% 4.1%

Electoral Trends – AA County

1992/4 1996/8 2000/2 2004/6 20080

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

6862972147

89624

103324

125015

5492066428

60753

789078146783574

104209

133231 129682

83663

87216

113968106897

35191

14287

0 0 0

Democrat PresidentDemocrat GovernorRepublican PresidentRepublican GovernorIndependent

Electoral Trends: Republican Advantage over Democrats in Presidential Races (AA County

only)

1992 1996 2000 2004 20080.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

6.9% 6.7% 7.5%

12.6%

1.8%

Republican-Democratic Percentages - President 1992 to 2008

Party Registration/Votes – AA County

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20080%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

55% 52% 52% 49% 48% 47% 46% 44% 44%

0%

58%53% 53%

49% 51% 47% 47% 45% 46%

0%

37%38% 38%

39% 39%39% 39%

39% 39%

0%

35%37% 39%

40% 40%40% 41%

40% 41%

0%

8%10% 10% 12% 13% 15% 15%

17% 17%

0%

7% 10% 8% 10% 10% 12% 11% 15% 13%

0%

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