phương pháp fcff

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BO CO KT QU KINH DOANH Doanh thu thun v bn hng v cung cp dch v Gi vn hng bn Li nhun gp v hng ha v dch v Doanh thu v hot ng ti chnh chi ph ti chnh Chi ph bn hng Chi ph qun l doanh nghip Li nhun t hot ng kinh doanh Thu nhp khc Phn l trong lin doanh Tng li nhun trc thu Chi ph li vay Khu hao n phi tr 2007 ####### ####### ####### 257,865 25,862 864,363 204,192 865,129 120,790 30,538 2008 2009 8,208,982 10,613,771 5,610,969 6,735,061 2,598,013 3,878,710 264,810 439,936 197,621 184,828 1,052,308 1,245,476 297,804 292,942 1,315,090 2,595,400 130,173 135,959 73,950 -

955,381 1,371,313 2,731,359 11,667 26,971 6,654 -959,245 ######## -1,343,022 862,150 ####### 1,154,432 ##########

2010 n v: Triu ng 15,752,866 10,579,208 5,173,658 448,530 153,189 1,438,186 388,147 3,642,666 608,785 243 4,251,208 6,171 -1,616,424 ##########

Phng php FCFF Nm 2007 EBIT 982,352 Khu hao -959,245 Nhu cu vn lu ng ngoi tin 1,219,712 Chi tiu vn 643,248 Thu sut TNDN 0.215 FCFF -132568.7 FCFF1 -118744.9 FCFF2 1520113.8 FCFF3 765215.9 FCFF4 1612381.3 Tng 3778966 Ga s doanh nghip s pht trin u n trong nhng nm cn li vi tc T nm 2011 tr i PV L -904016.1 Gi tr ca cng ty vo u nm 2007 l S c phiu lu hnh Gi mt c phiu l phng php FCFE li nhun sau thu FCFE FCFE(2011) chi ph s dng VCSH: r (ke) 1+r FCFE/(1+r)^t V2011 Vo s c phiu ang lu hnh

963,448 -899,512 0.1157 1.1157 -806215 -7048194 ######### -0.044328 -44328.27

2008 2009 2010 1,398,284 2,738,013 4,257,379 ######## -1,343,022 ######## -210,957 1,794,053 1,013,327 531,964 633,525 1,440,350 0.215 0.215 0.215 1894645 1064784.2 2504790

Nm 2006 ####### ####### 156,195 WACC 11.64% WACC+1 111.64%

trin u n trong nhng nm cn li vi tc l: 23.61% 2874950 1.59E+08 0.018081 18081.446

0

1,250,120 929,113

2,375,692 3,616,186 -51,886 1,162,509 1437021

746373.8 -37357.86 750191.4 -1.2E+07

BNG CN I K TON 2007 I. TI SN 1. TI SN NGN HN Tin v cc khon tng ng tin Tin Cc khon tng ng tin Cc khon u t ngn hn u t ngn hn D phng gim gi u t ngn hn Cc khon phi thu ngn hn Phi thu khch hng Tr trc cho ngi bn Cc khon phi thu khc D phng phi thu ngn hn kh i Hng tn kho Hng tn kho D phng gim gi hng tn kho Ti sn ngn hn khc Chi ph tr trc ngn hn Thu gi tr gia tng c khu tr Thu v cc khon phi thu Nh Nc Ti sn ngn hn khc 2. TI SN DI HN Cc khon thu di hn Phi thu di hn khc Ti sn c nh a. Ti sn c nh hu hnh Nguyn gi Gi tr hao mn ly k b. Ti sn c nh v hnh Nguyn gi Gi tr hao mn ly k Chi ph xy dng c bn d dang Bt ng sn Nguyn gi Gi tr hao mn ly k Cc khon u t di hn u t vo cng ty lin kt, lin doanh u t di hn khc D phng gim gi u t di hn Li th thng mi Ti sn di hn khc Chi ph tr trc di hn Ti sn thu thu nhp hon li Ti sn di hn khc TNG TI SN 2008 2009 2010 n v: triu ng

####### 3,187,605 5,069,157 5,919,803 117,819 338,654 426,153 263,472 117,519 132,977 376,135 249,472 300 205,677 50,000 14,000 654,485 374,002 2,314,253 2,092,260 654,660 496,998 2,400,760 2,162,917 -175 -122,996 -86,507 -70,657 654,720 646,385 728,634 1,124,863 505,234 530,149 513,346 587,458 79,847 75,460 139,363 354,096 70,390 40,923 76,588 183,905 -751 -147 -663 -596 ####### 1,775,342 1,311,765 2,351,354 ####### 1,789,646 1,321,271 2,355,487 -11,692 -14,304 -9,506 -4,133 75,593 53,222 288,370 87,854 14,282 31,460 21,986 38,595 33,401 19,196 37,399 16,933 23,808 226,000 4,048 2,566 2,985 32,326 ####### 762 762 ####### ####### ####### -941,189 20,715 38,771 -18,056 598,308 2,779,354 475 475 1,936,923 1,529,187 2,618,638 ######## 50,868 79,416 -28,548 356,868 27,489 27,489 570,657 23,702 546,955 3,412,879 8,822 8,822 2,524,964 1,835,583 3,135,507 ######## 39,241 82,339 -43,098 650,140 27,489 27,489 602,479 26,152 672,732 -96,405 4,853,229 23 23 3,428,572 2,589,894 4,113,300 ######## 173,395 263,171 -89,776 665,283 100,817 104,059 -3,242 1,141,799 214,232 1,036,147 -108,580 19,557 162,461 97,741 62,865 1,855 ########

401,018 78,189 322,829

203,941 243,810 249,125 195,613 195,512 194,714 8,017 47,276 53,521 311 1,022 890 ####### 5,966,959 8,482,036

II. NGUN VN 1. N PHI TR N ngn hn Vay v n ngn hn Phi tr ngi bn Ngi mua tr tin trc Thu v cc khon phi np nh nc Phi tr ngi lao ng Chi ph phi tr Cc khon phi tr, phi np ngn hn N DI HN Phi tr ngi bn di hn Phi tr di hn khc Vay v n di hn D phng n mt vic lm Doanh thu cha thc hin 2. VN CH S HU Vn ch s hu Vn gp ca ch s hu C phiu ngn qu Thng d vn c phn Qu u t pht trin Qu d phng ti chnh Li nhun sau thu cha phn phi Ngun kinh ph v qu khc Qu khen thng phc li Li ch ca c ng ti thiu TNG CNG NGUN VN

####### 1,154,432 1,808,931 2,808,596 933,357 972,502 1,552,606 2,385,346 9,963 188,222 13,283 567,690 621,376 492,556 789,867 1,089,417 5,717 5,917 28,827 30,515 35,331 64,187 399,962 281,789 426 3,104 28,668 33,549 132,366 144,052 208,131 264,150 128,078 74,464 83,848 118,236 139,873 181,930 256,325 163,583 81,002 93,612 116,940 30,000 92,000 92,000 32,381 22,418 12,455 26,490 35,900 34,930 51,374 20,209 ####### 4,761,913 6,637,793 7,964,436 ####### 4,665,715 6,637,793 7,964,436 ####### 1,752,757 3,512,653 3,530,721 -154 -669 ####### 1,064,948 774,540 869,697 1,765,283 2,172,290 136,313 175,276 294,348 353,072 525,757 803,037 892,344 1,909,022 91,622 96,198 182,265 259,394 91,622 96,198 182,265 259,394 35,950 50,614 35,366 ####### 5,966,959 8,482,036 ########

n v: triu ng

Nm t l n t l VCSH t l n trung bnh t l VCSH trung bnh

2007 0.197826148 0.802173852 0.2163173 0.7836827

2008 2009 0.19347 0.213266131 0.80653 0.786733869

2010 0.26071 0.73929

Tnh ke (CAdM) 11.57% Li sut phi ri ro 9% Beta 0.514443346 Phn b ri ro 5% Li tc yu cu ca nh u t l 20%

k(d) k(d)*(1-0.215) WACC 0.1275 0.1515

15.15% 11.89% 11.64%

9/22/06 9/15/06 9/8/06 9/1/06 8/25/06 8/18/06 8/11/06 8/4/06 7/28/06 7/21/06 7/14/06 7/7/06 6/30/06 6/23/06 6/16/06 6/9/06 6/2/06

Tnh beta date12/29/06 12/22/06 12/15/06 12/8/06 12/1/06 11/24/06 11/17/06 11/10/06 11/3/06 10/27/06 10/20/06 10/13/06 10/6/06 9/29/06 9/22/06 9/15/06 9/8/06 9/1/06 8/25/06 8/18/06 8/11/06 8/4/06 7/28/06 7/21/06 7/14/06 7/7/06 6/30/06 6/23/06 6/16/06 6/9/06 6/2/06

Column1 VNM59692.94 58260.31 64945.92 60170.48 50142.07 53484.87 44889.09 39636.11 38442.25 38919.8 39636.11 38919.8 39636.11 39636.11 39158.57 38681.02 39397.34 39397.34 38681.02 39636.11 35338.22 34383.13 33428.04 35338.22 37487.16 38203.48 38681.02 38442.25 40113.65 42501.37 42023.83

Column2 Column3 Column4 t l li tc vn-index t l tng trng 2.43% 242.89 2.57% -10.86% 236.73 -3.60% 7.64% 245.4 8.75% 18.23% 224.85 1.31% -6.45% 221.92 -6.76% 17.52% 237.45 19.27% 12.45% 195.83 -1.40% 3.06% 198.6 3.28% -1.23% 192.2 0.04% -1.82% 192.13 -0.01% 1.82% 192.14 -0.85% -1.82% 193.78 -0.64% 0.00% 195.02 0.27% 1.21% 194.49 0.24% 1.23% 194.02 -0.65% -1.83% 195.28 -1.77% 0.00% 198.76 2.30% 1.83% 194.24 0.57% -2.44% 193.14 -2.93% 11.48% 198.89 10.29% 2.74% 179.45 0.43% 2.82% 178.68 2.59% -5.56% 174.12 -3.05% -5.90% 179.52 0.00% -1.89% 179.52 -3.21% -1.24% 185.38 -0.29% 0.62% 185.92 -2.53% -4.26% 190.68 0.45% -5.78% 189.83 -4.00% 1.13% 197.57 -5.12%207.95

VNM M Column5 E(ri)-E(Rvnm) (1) E(ri)-E(Rm)(2) (1)*(2) 1.26% 1.44% -11.99% -3.60% 7.64% 8.75% 18.23% 1.31% -6.45% -6.76% 17.52% 19.27% 12.45% -1.40% 3.06% 3.28% -1.23% 0.04% -1.82% -0.01% 1.82% -0.85% -1.82% -0.64% 0.00% 0.27% 1.21% 0.24% 1.23% -0.65% -1.83% -1.77% 0.00% 2.30% 1.83% 0.57% -2.44% -2.93% 11.48% 10.29% 2.74% 0.43% 2.82% 2.59% -5.56% -3.05% -5.90% 0.00% -1.89% -3.21% -1.24% -0.29% 0.62% -2.53% -4.26% 0.45% -5.78% -4.00% 1.13% -5.12%

0.02% 0.43% 0.67% 0.24% 0.44% 3.38% -0.17% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% -0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% -0.01% 0.03% 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 1.18% 0.01% 0.07% 0.17% 0.00% 0.06% 0.00% -0.02% -0.02% 0.23% -0.06%

var(VNM) cov(VNM,M)

0.002279

0.00443 BETA 0.51444

E(Rvnm) E(Rm)

1.17% 1.13%

Chi ph vn Khu hao Chnh lch VL ngoi tin pht sinh n EBIT 1-t RR RR trung bnhtra Li

2007 1,641,669 -959,245 1,219,712 211,080 982,352 0.785 2.19 1.06724059611,667

2008 1,936,923 -1,117,999 -210,957 81,202 1,398,284 0.785 0.4826,971.00

2009 2,524,964 -1,343,022 1,794,053 836,764 2,738,013 0.785 1.00

2010 3,428,572 -1,616,424 1,013,327 817,400 4,257,379 0.785 0.60

6,6548,428,035 25%

6,17110,773,032 31%

Tng ti sn ROC ROC trung bnh g

5,425,117 0.140455538 0.221259687 0.23613732

5,966,959 18%

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# of occurrences 1 'WACC'!H1:O33