National Center for Higher Education Management Systems3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150Boulder, Colorado 80301

The Challenge of Higher Expectations& Constrained Resources

presented to

WCET Annual MeetingDenver, Colorado

October 23, 2009

The Reality of Higher Expectations

• State Level Goals– Double the numbers in Arizona, Colorado, & Kentucky

– Global Competitiveness in Minnesota and Texas

– 40-40-20 in Oregon

“By 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the

world”- President Obama, 2/24/09

2

Differences in College Attainment (Associate & Higher) Between Younger & Older Adults—U.S. & OECD

Countries, 2006

Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2008

0

20

40

60

Canada

JapanK

oreaN

ew Z

ealandIrelandB

elgiumN

orway

France

Denm

arkU

nited States

Spain

Sw

edenA

ustralia F

inlandU

nited Kingdom

Netherlands

Luxembourg

Sw

itzerlandIcelandP

olandG

reeceG

ermany

Hungary

Portugal

Austria

Mexico

ItalyS

lovak Republic

Czech R

epublicT

urkey

25 to 34

45 to 54

slide 3

Differences in College Attainment (Associate & Higher) Between Younger & Older Adults—U.S.,

2006

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey (ACS)

20

30

40

50

60

70

DC

Massachusetts

North D

akotaM

innesotaN

ew Y

orkM

arylandN

ew Jersey

Connecticut

Iowa

New

Ham

pshireD

elaware

Rhode Island

Pennsylvania

Verm

ontV

irginiaN

ebraskaM

ontanaS

outh Dakota

IllinoisW

isconsinH

awaii

Washington

Colorado

Kansas

Michigan

Utah

Maine

North C

arolinaM

issouriF

loridaC

aliforniaO

hioIndianaO

regonG

eorgiaS

outh Carolina

Arizona

IdahoW

yoming

New

Mexico

Mississippi

Alaska

Tennessee

Kentucky

West V

irginiaT

exasA

labama

Oklahom

aLouisianaN

evadaA

rkansas

Age 25-34

Age 45-54

slide 4

Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group - U.S. & Leading OECD

Countries

54.8

54.1

53.0

43.6

42.2

41.9

41.5

41.4

40.8

39.2

50.8

46.2

37.5

39.5

32.8

34.8

34.6

26.9

36.2

40.9

43.2 39.3

19.2

38.1

24.0

26.8

30.0

19.4

33.2

39.637.4

22.9

10.6

30.3

16.9

22.5

24.9

16.0

28.5

37.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Canada Japan Korea NewZealand

Ireland Belgium Norway France Denmark U.S.

Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64

Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008

slide 5

Closing the Gap - Number of Degrees Required Beyond Current Production

15,600,000

10,500,000

16,200,000

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

To Meet InternationalBest Performing

To Close Equity Gap To Meet Manpower Demands

6

slide 7

Current Annual Degree Production – 2,252,212

Additional Annual Degree Production Needed – 150,528 per Year

Associate and Bachelors Degrees Needed to Become the Most Educated Country by 2020

Increase in State and Local Funding at Current Cost per FTE

Note: Assumes private institutions will maintain current share

Annual Increase in Degree Production Required to Meet the Goal – 11.7 Million Additional Degrees by 2020

Adjusting for Current Levels of Educational Attainment and Population Growth by State

How Can the U.S. Reach International Competitiveness?

Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration and Improved Performance on the Student Pipeline Measures

63,127,642

60,790,073

7,347,209

3,270,900

1,265,118

40,605,747

7,045,932

1,255,167

0 25,000,000 50,000,000 75,000,000

Pipeline Performance Is Cumulative

Degrees Produced 2005-25 with Current Rate of Production

Additional Degrees from Population Growth

Additional Degrees from Net Migration of College-Educated Residents

Reaching Best Performance in High School Graduation Rates by 2025

Reaching Best Performance in College-Going Rates by 2025

Reaching Best Performance in Rates of Degree Production per FTE Student

Total Degrees Produced 2005-25 If All of the Above

Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%)

Source: 2005 ACS, PUMS

slide 9

Even Best Performance with Traditional College-Age Students at Each Stage of the Educational Pipeline Will Leave Gaps in

More than 30 States

24,741

37,706

47,420

2,788

28,65934,547

53,995

65,853

122,061

287,565

560,688

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000

IndianaMissouri

ConnecticutMarylandWyomingGeorgia

HawaiiMontana

IdahoMaine

WisconsinNew Mexico

MichiganOregon

OklahomaAlaska

West VirginiaAlabama

South CarolinaOhio

MississippiArizona

North CarolinaKentuckyArkansasLouisiana

NevadaTennesseeNew Jersey

CaliforniaFloridaTexas 1,333,645

893,504

In order to reach international competitiveness by 2025, the U.S. and 32 states cannot close the gap with even best

performance with traditional college students. They must rely on the re-entry pipeline—getting older adults back into the

education system and on track to attaining college degrees.

10

FINANCIAL ENVIRONMENT

11

The Flow of Funds - State

12

Federal Government

Tax Policy

Appropriations/GrantsStudent Aid

Tuition

Scholarships &Waivers

Available State and Local

Govt. Funds

Higher Education

Students Institutions

Economy

• K-12• Corrections• Health Care• Other Govt.

Stimulus

Funds

Federal Government

StudentAid

Additional Annual Costs at Current Funding Levels Per Student to States & Localities to Reach

Benchmark Keeping Tuition the Same

32

56

15

82 1

32

8 11

01

10

62 96

3 83

87

66

75

8

68

1 55

2 43

34

22

41

24

07

38

83

55

32

22

98

29

32

74

22

9 13

8 89 78 60 33 17

11 5

68

2

21

4

44

5

54

65

37

13

40

48

14

56

15

8

16

90

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

California

Texas

Florida

Nevada

North C

arolina

Arizona

Georgia

Louisiana

Tennessee

New

Jersey

Ohio

Michigan

Alaska

Arkansas

Kentucky

Indiana

Wisconsin

Alabam

a

New

Mexico

South C

arolina

Maryland

Mississippi

Illinois

Oregon

Virginia

Washington

Pennsylvania

Idaho

Missouri

Oklahom

a

Haw

aii

Connecticut

West V

irginia

Maine

Wyom

ing

Montana

Kansas

Delaw

are

Minnesota

New

Ham

pshire

South D

akota

Verm

ont

North D

akota

Nebraska

Iowa

Rhode Island

Utah

Colorado

New

York

Massachusetts

6,228

6,255

(Dollars in Millions)U.S. = 31 Billion

slide 13

Projected State and Local Budget Surplus (Gap) as a Percent of Revenues, 2016

slide 14Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009

-2.1

-2.2

-2.3

-2.3

-2.4

-2.6

-2.7

-2.9 -3

-3.3

-3.5

-3.5

-3.8

-4.1

-4.6

-4.7

-4.8

-4.9 -5

-5.1

-5.2

-5.4

-5.7

-5.7

-5.8

-5.8 -6

-6.2

-6.3

-6.3

-6.7

-6.7

-6.8

-7.2

-7.4

-7.8 -8

-8.1

-8.1

-8.5

-8.5

-8.5

-8.7

-8.9

-9.1

-9.4

-9.5

-9.7

-10.

6-1

0.8

-10.

9

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

Mar

ylan

dM

aine

Verm

ont

New

Jers

eyCo

nnec

ticut

New

Ham

pshi

reRh

ode

Isla

ndN

orth

Dak

ota

Wis

cons

inM

assa

chus

etts

Mic

higa

nW

yom

ing

Calif

orni

aO

hio

Del

awar

eKa

nsas

Ore

gon

Virg

inia

New

Yor

kM

inne

sota

Wes

t Vir

gini

aPe

nnsy

lvan

iaIll

inoi

sA

lask

aN

ebra

ska

Mon

tana

Uni

ted

Stat

esLo

uisi

ana

Indi

ana

Haw

aii

Okl

ahom

aN

ew M

exic

oM

isso

uri

Kent

ucky

Iow

aSo

uth

Dak

ota

Was

hing

ton

Flor

ida

Sout

h Ca

rolin

aA

rkan

sas

Geo

rgia

Colo

rado

Tenn

esse

eN

orth

Car

olin

aId

aho

Uta

hA

rizo

naN

evad

aA

laba

ma

Texa

sM

issi

ssip

pi

After stimulus wanes, gaps could approximate 4% of spending, or $70 billion, even under the “Low-Gap”

Scenario

Source: Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009slide 15

After stimulus wanes, gaps could approach 7% of spending or $120 billion under the “High-Gap”

scenario

Source: Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009slide 16

Recognize that the big population growth will be in students of color. In the main these

will be individuals of modest means.

Therefore there are real limits as to how high tuition can go before price affects participation and

completion.

slide 17

Change in Population Age 25-44 By Race/Ethnicity, 2005-2025

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

slide 18

…2,689,700

…1,044,516

Difference Between Whites and Next Largest Race/Ethnic Group in Percentage of Adults Age 25-

34 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000

35

.83

4.7

34

.3 32

.93

2.7

32

.1 32 30

.42

9.5

29

.32

8.4

28

.12

7.5

27

.32

6.1

25

.52

5.3

25

.32

4.7

24

.72

4.7

24

.52

4.3 22

.82

2.4

21

.8 21

19

.91

9.8

19

.31

9.3

19

.21

9.1 1

81

7.6

16

.61

6.5

16

.31

5.8

15

.8 13

.61

3.1 11

.61

1.5

11

.31

1.3

10

.5 9.7 8

.58

.11

.4

0

10

20

30

40

Colorado

California

Conn

ecticutN

ebraskaS

outh D

akotaN

ew Y

orkM

assachuse

ttsN

ew Jersey

Kansas

Rhod

e Island

Te

xasN

orth Dakota

Washing

tonA

rizonaA

laskaU

tahIllinoisIow

aW

isconsinO

regon

Minn

esotaN

ew M

exico

Idaho

Virginia

Nevad

aM

ontana

Pennsylva

niaM

aryland

Wyom

ingD

elaware

United

States

Michig

anS

outh C

arolinaN

ew H

ampshire

North C

arolin

aM

ississippiLo

uisianaG

eorgia

Missou

riO

hioA

labama

Indiana

Arkan

sasF

lorida

Te

nnessee

Kentu

ckyV

ermont

Oklah

oma

Ma

ine

West V

irginia

Haw

aii

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census)19

Percent of Children Ages 0 to 17 Living in Families with Less than a Living Wage (2007)

Source: 2007 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples) Slide 20

For More Information

Dennis Jones

dennis@nchems.org

and visit

NCHEMS Information Center for Higher EducationPolicymaking and Analysis

www.higheredinfo.org

slide 21