Pakistan: Sindh Coastal Community Development Project ... · 76% at Keti Bundar and 74% at Shah...
Transcript of Pakistan: Sindh Coastal Community Development Project ... · 76% at Keti Bundar and 74% at Shah...
Environmental Monitoring Report Final Monitoring Report June 2013
Pakistan: Sindh Coastal Community Development
Project – Mangroves Raised by Coastal Forest
Division Sindh Forest Department, Government of
Sindh At Shah Bundar & Keti Bundar
Prepared by International Union for Conservation of Nature, Pakistan Country Office for the
Government of Sindh, Pakistan and the Asian Development Bank.
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
(as of 30 June 2013) Currency unit – pak rupees (PRs)
PRs1.00 = $ .01005 $1.00 = PRs. 99.5500
ABBREVIATIONS
ADB – Asian Development Bank CBO
CFD – –
community based organization Coastal Forest Department
DFO – divisional forest officer CO – community organization EA – environmental assessment GIS – geographic information system GPS – global positioning system IUCN – International Union for Conservation Of Nature M&E – monitoring and evaluation MoU – memorandum of understanding NRSP – National Rural Support Programme PMU – project management unit SCCDP – Sindh Coastal Community Development Project SCDA – Sindh Coastal Development Authority SFD – Sindh Forest Department SRS – sample random sampling VO – village organization
This environmental monitoring report is a document of the borrower. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of ADB's Board of Directors, Management, or staff, and may be preliminary in nature. In preparing any country program or strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.
Final Monitoring Report Mangroves Raised by Coastal Forest Division Sindh Forest Department, Government of Sindh At Shah Bundar & Keti Bundar
Sindh Coastal Community Development Project
(SCCDP) June, 2013
International Union for Conservation of Nature, Pakistan
Sindh Coastal Communities Development Project in Badin and Thatta Districts - IUCN Pakistan ii
Prepared by
IUCN Pakistan
IUCN Pakistan Country Office
1 Bath Island Road, Karachi 75530, kistan
Tel: ++ 92 (21) 35861540-3
Fax: ++ 92 (21) 35861448, 5835760
Cover Photo: Ceriops tagal, Marwari Creek, Keti Bundar, May, 2013
Table of Contents
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................. 5
II. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 7
II. SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES OF MONITORING ............................................................... 7
III. METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................ 9
i. Pre-Planting Site Selection ........................................................................................ 9
ii. Post-Planting Monitoring .......................................................................................... 9
iii. Assessment of Survival/Success Percentage of Mangrove Plantations ................. 10
iv. Assessment of Planting Process and Approach ...................................................... 11
IV. FINDINGS OF MONITORING & EVALUATION .......................................................... 11
V. DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................. 22
i. Technical Aspect of the Project .............................................................................. 22
a. Estimated Survival Percentage ............................................................................ 22
b. Plant Growth ........................................................................................................ 23
c. Choice of Species and Planting Methodology ..................................................... 24
d. Area Planted ........................................................................................................ 25
e. Container Plant Nursery ...................................................................................... 28
ii. Planting Process and Approach .............................................................................. 31
a. Community Engagement ..................................................................................... 31
b. Organisational Collaboration .............................................................................. 32
VI. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................. 32
Annexure I: Lists OF Randomly Selected Coordinates ............................................... 36
Annexure I: Lists OF Randomly Selected Coordinates ............................................... 37
Annexure II: Statistical Analysis .................................................................................. 38
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Glossary
ADB: Asian Development Bank
CBO: Community Based Organization
CO: Community Organization
CFD: Coastal Forest Division
EA: Environmental Assessment
GIS: Geographic Information System
GPS: Global Positioning System
IUCN: International Union for Conservation of Nature & Natural Resources
M&E: Monitoring and Evaluation
MoU: Memorandum of Understanding
NRSP: National Rural Support Program
PMU: Project Management Unit
SCDA: Sindh Coastal Development Authority
SFD: Sindh Forest Department
SSCDP: Sindh Coastal Community Development Project
SRS: Simple Random Sampling
VO: Village Organization
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I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Sindh Coastal Community Development Project (SCCDP) aimed at reducing poverty among
the poor inhabitants of the coastal zone of Thatta and Badin districts in Sindh. The project
strategy was to help poor families by increasing their income, access to public services and their
capacity to manage the natural resource based on which their livelihoods are dependent. The
project envisaged implementation at two major technical levels, firstly, by undertaking
mangrove restoration/rehabilitation activities and secondary by introducing aquaculture.
Pakistan’s mangrove ecosystem provides a number of valuable goods and services. They support
the fisheries sector by serving as breeding grounds for shrimp and fish species. They are also a
source of fuel wood and fodder for local communities. Mangroves play an important role in
disaster protection by reducing the impacts of strong waves generated cyclones and storms in
coastal areas.
The SCCDP is working towards increasing income, access to public services and capacity of local
communities (who are mostly agriculturalists and fishermen) to manage the natural resource
base on which they live. The Project also strives to improve conditions of coastal forestry and
fisheries, as well as improve coastal zone management.
IUCN Pakistan has developed a monitoring framework for monitoring the process and
approaches adopted in the planting of 10,000 ha plantation done by the Sindh Forest
Department under the SCCDP project. The methodology follows the specified guidelines and
indicators identified and prescribed in the monitoring framework. The monitoring approach
involved several steps.
To establish a baseline, the sites were reconfirmed and intensively visited by IUCN staff jointly
with the staff of the Coastal Forestry Division (CFD) of the Sindh Forest Department (SFD) during
the months of Junuary to April each year. To select and assess the target area for 2013, a joint
visit by the IUCN team and CFD staff was made in January, 2013 to establish the baseline. A GIS
map was prepared and then shared with the Project Director, SCCDP and DFO-CFD, Karachi.
Monitoring of mangrove areas is a daunting task in terms of their inter-tidal characteristics,
remoteness which are subject to tidal phenomenon which limits access to these areas. Hence,
the ability to access and monitor planted areas are subject to suitable tide and weather
conditions.
In order to assess survival and success percentage of new and previously planted areas, a Simple
Random Sampling (SRS) approach was adopted. SRS is a widely used sampling approach to make
inference about a population from data collected through the independently selected samples.
Using SRS, randomly selected geographic locations were identified within the sites planted under
the project at Shah Bundar and Keti Bundar. The randomization was undertaken on the basis of
the extent of both East longitudinal and North latitudinal coordinates encompassing the entire
planted areas.
The findings of the Fifth Monitoring Report reveal that the Sindh Forest Department has
achieved the physical targets of mangrove plantations over 10,000 ha assigned to them, with
the overall highly satisfactory level of survival or success. Up to 2013, the net area planted has
been estimated 10,250 ha against reported area 10,000 ha by SDF, with a difference of 250 ha
which makes 2.43% of the total target area which is surplus to the actual target. This indicates
that the SFD has successfully achieved 100% target by June, 2013.
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The observed survival percentage of plantation established in 2009-2012 has been estimated
76% at Keti Bundar and 74% at Shah Bundar which may be considered as a reasonably good
success considering the adverse silvicultural and climatic factors. Moreover, the excellent
survival rate was recorded in the areas planted during 2013, at Shah Bundar with 96% ad Keti
Bundar 100% with overall success of 98%. In addition, the newly and old planted areas have a
very good and profuse natural regeneration of Avicennia spp: which is coming up very well and
needs immediate thinning operations in order to reduce the competition for food, light and
space among the young growth.
The most important part of this excellent work is its maintenance of the young growth by the
SFD field staff. Most of the plantations are still young and require strict vigilance as these areas
have remained under the heavy grazing pressure by the herds of camel and water buffaloes in
the past. It has been noticed in the monitoring exercise that the community/CBOs/VOs are still
reluctant to take full charge of the mangrove plantations. As a result, the Sindh Forest
Department has to play its effective role in maintaining the young plantations in the future.
Moreover, a balanced and diverse species composition is to be preferred in future plantations.
Establishing mangrove nurseries in the target areas provided backbone support in maintaining
the plantations during nonseeding months of the year. Training and skill imparting program for
the field staff and community in nursery raising is value addition and a long term investment in
the mangrove foresty. Skilled staff protected and looked after nurseries effectively and
monitoring results shown that the mortality remained less over the project period. Good and
healthy saplings were observed during the frequent monitoring process. The practice of raising
container plant nursery should be continued for the purpose of maintenance, gap filling and
restocking in failure areas as a back up for raising mangrove plantation in non-seeding season.
Progress reports (Notes), area maps/sketches, GPS coordinates, GIS map development are an
effective tools and should be continued and priority be given as it has proved an effective means
in planning, implementation, management and monitoring the areas tackled under SCCDP.
Under the project it has proved that technical and healthy monitoring and evaluation exercises
should be a permanent feature of such interdepartmental and multidisciplinary project in future.
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II. INTRODUCTION
The Sindh Coastal Community Development Project (SCCDP) is being implemented by the Sindh
Coastal Development Authority (SCDA) in coastal areas of Thatta and Badin through government
agencies (Sindh Forest Department., Sindh Fisheries Department, and District Governments) and
non-government organizations (NRSP and IUCN) with different roles and responsibilities
assigned to each of them. The objectives of the project are to:
i. Diversify household income generation options and access to service in ways
sustainable to the fragile ecosystem
ii. Improve coastal zone management by stabilising environmental degradation,
protecting coastal areas from accelerated erosion
iii. Strengthen institutional capabilities for coastal zone planning and development and
management of fisheries resources
The complex nature of the project demands effective cooperation between organizations for
successful implementation of the project in order to achieve the following outputs:
i. Sustainable community managed income generating mangrove stands, pond/raft
fisheries, and shell fisheries established
ii. Transparent and accountable community-driven mechanisms for identification,
implementation and operations and maintenance of civil works and public services
in place
Under the sub-component improved coastal management, IUCNP is tasked with the planning
and implementation of community planting, management and environmental assessment of
aquaculture in the coastal areas of the Thatta and Badin districts. IUCN Pakistan’s key roles in
the ADB funded ‘Sindh Coastal Community Development Project are:
i. To implement the Community Mangrove Planting component of the project – 350
ha on community owned property.
ii. To monitor and evaluate both the 350 ha area, and the planting of 10,000 ha of
mangrove by the Dept of Forestry on government owned land.
iii. To monitor environmental impacts of the aquaculture related activities to be
undertaken as part of the project.
In the role of consultant IUCN Pakistan has been working very closely with NRSP and Sindh
Forest and Fisheries departments for the implementation of SCCDP.
II. SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES OF MONITORING
This monitoring and evaluation report pertains to old and new plantations that comprises of
2350 ha of new mangrove plantation established in 2013, 2000 ha in 2012 and 3000 ha in 2009-
2011 at Shah Bundar, 3000 ha in 2009-2011 at Keti Bundar by Sindh Forest Department–Coastal
Forest Division (SFD-CFD) as per following details.
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Mangrove Area Planted by SFD under SCCDP (ha)
The objectives of the monitoring and evaluation are as follows:
i. Assess the quantity and quality of mangrove rehabilitation work undertaken by SFD-
CFD and report the same to Project Executing agency.
ii. Assess the quantum of natural regeneration within the planted areas which are
surviving as a result of protection measures by Sindh Forest Department.
iii. Provide technical feedback to the CFD on the deficiencies or shortfall in
implementation of the mangrove rehabilitation component.
iv. Enhance overall outcome of the mangrove rehabilitation sub-component.
Monitoring and Evaluation process over the project life
1800,
17%
2009 1400,
14%
2010
2800,
27%
2011
2000,
19%
2012
2350,
23%
2013
# Name of Site Year Wise Actual Area Planted (Ha) Total Area
(Ha) 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
i. Keti Bundar 770 - 1300 716.5 832.5 3619
ii. Shah Bundar 1580 2000 1500 683.5 967.5 6731
Grand Total 2350 2000 2800 1400 1800 10,350
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In the month of August, 2011 during the visit of Keti Bundar by the ADB mid-term mission, IUCN
was specifically asked to revise the monitoring framework to assess natural regeneration within
the planted areas which was emerging or surviving as a result of protection efforts by Sindh
Forest Department.
Therefore, in accordance with para 55 of MoU of ADB mid-term review Mission (1-15 August
2011) the scope and monitoring methodology adopted under this report has been revised to
include assessment of scale of natural regeneration in the planted area.
III. METHODOLOGY
IUCN Pakistan has developed a monitoring framework for monitoring the process and
approaches adopted in the planting of 10,000 ha plantation done by Sindh Forest Department
under the SCCDP project. The methodology follows the specified guidelines and indicators
identified and prescribed in the monitoring framework. The monitoring approach involved
several steps, as follows:
i. Pre-Planting Site Selection
To establish a baseline, the sites were reconfirmed and intensively visited by IUCN staff jointly
with the staff of the Coastal Forestry Division (CFD) of the Sindh Forest Department (SFD) during
the months of Junuary to April each year. To select and assess the target area for 2013, a joint
visit by the IUCN team and CFD staff was made in January, 2013 to establish the baseline. A GIS
map was prepared and then shared with the Project Director, SCCDP and DFO-CFD, Karachi.
ii. Post-Planting Monitoring
Monitoring of mangrove areas is a daunting task in terms of their inter-tidal characteristics,
remoteness which are subject to tidal phenomenon which limits access to these areas. Hence,
the ability to access and monitor planted areas is subject to suitable tide and weather
conditions.
Nevertheless, the post planting monitoring by IUCN remained a continuous process throughout
the period during which several joint visits of planted sites in Shah Bundar and Keti Bundar were
carried out.
These visits were carried out during the various phases of implementation of mangrove
component of the project by the Sindh Forest Department including site selection, area
mapping, visits of ADB Missions, joint visits with PMU staff and finally for the assessment of
survival/success percentage in the planted areas.
The purpose of these visits was to monitor mangrove plantation work, record GPS coordinates of
planting sites for preparation of GIS maps of the planted areas and to ensure conformity of
planted areas with the already identified sites. The GIS maps have also been used to assess the
quantum of planted areas.
The final detailed field data collection was conducted from 17 to 20 May and on 22 June, 2013
at Keti Bundar and from 23 to 27 May, 2013 at Shah Bundar by the two field teams constituted
by IUCN Pakistan. During these visits, the staff of CFD accompanied the field teams.
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iii. Assessment of Survival/Success Percentage of Mangrove Plantations
The assessment of the survival percentage of mangrove planted areas is one of the important
indicators identified in the monitoring framework. This assessment helps in evaluating
effectiveness of planting approach, choice of species, protection measures, etc. adopted by CFD.
It also provides a useful insight for subsequent corrective measures based on the lessons learnt.
In order to assess survival and success percentage of new and previously planted areas, a Simple
Random Sampling (SRS) approach was adopted. SRS is a widely used sampling approach to make
inference about a population from data collected through the independently selected samples.
Using SRS, randomly selected geographic locations were identified within the sites planted under
the project at Shah Bundar and Keti Bundar. The randomization was undertaken on the basis of
the extent of both East longitudinal and North latitudinal coordinates encompassing the entire
planted areas.
The random sample locations were identified using quick random calculator which is available at
http://www.graphpad.com/quickcalcs/randomn2.cfm. Based on this, sampling locations were
identified for data collection in each of the project sites (Keti Bundar and Shah Bundar)
separately for both newly planted areas and target areas tackled in previous years (2009-2013).
The sample plots were well distributed to represent the entire planted areas. The list of
randomly selected coordinates is annexed (Annexure I).
The randomly selected sample plots were located in the field using GPS. At each sampling
location, fixed area plots measuring 10 m x 10 m were laid out. The sample plots were laid using
a systematic procedure measuring 10m from the point of origin towards north, then 10m
towards east, then 10m towards west and finally measuring 10m towards west (point of origin)
to complete the square grid. The same procedure was adopted to lay out a sample plot on the
opposite side.
At each sample plot, data pertaining to the number of surviving plants, the number of dead
plants, type of species, height of plants, leaf count, etc. was recorded in datasheets developed
for the purpose. In addition, natural regeneration and old naturally growing mangrove plants
were also counted within each sample plot besides recording of general topographical and
biological conditions, grazing, soil condition etc.
The field collected data was compiled using Microsoft Excel spreadsheets and analysed for their
statistical significance. The data were analysed to calculate various statistical parameters
including, mean, variance, standard deviation to estimate the statistical significance of the
sample data and make inference about the population. The significance of sample data was
analysed by applying t-test statistic using 0.05% significance level (95% confidence). Based on
this analysis conclusions were drawn about the mean plant survival of new plantations and
success percentage of previous year’s plantations at both the project sites.
In all, data were recorded from sample plots laid out at 30 in new planted areas at Shah Bundar
and Keti Bundar and 36 in old plantations randomly selected locations within the current and
previous years’ planting sites at Keti Bundar, and Shah Bundar, as per following details.
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# Site No. of Sampling Locations/Year of Planting Total
2013 2013* 2012 2011 2010 2009
1 Keti Bundar * 17 - 31 16 13 77
2 Shah
Bundar
30 19 40 19 13 12 133
Grand Total 30 36 40 50 29 25 210
2013*-In old planted areas (2009-2012), *- SFD’s Guinness World Record Mangrove Plantation
iv. Assessment of Planting Process and Approach
This was undertaken through physical verification of planted sites and discussion with the field
staff on planting approach, process and protection measures adopted to safeguard the planted
areas. Photographs were also taken to know the ground position at various locations.
IV. FINDINGS OF MONITORING & EVALUATION
It needs to be kept in mind that the monitoring and evaluation is a continuous process, the data
and findings in this report kept evolving as the monitoring and evaluation process went on up to
the project period (2009-2013).
Keti Bundar
3619,
35%
Shah
Bundar
6731,
65%
Areas & Site wise Target Achievement
2009-2013
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The findings and analysis presented in this report pertain to the ground situation at the point in
time when this M&E was undertaken i.e. May-June 2013. This situation may vary during the
subsequent Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) exercise of the same areas.
The summary of M&E findings covering the various important parameters is shown as follows:
Parameter Findings
1. Site Selection
The sites planted during 2013 concur with the
sites identified by the IUCN jointly with staff of
CFD at both sites (Keti Bundar and Shah
Bundar). At both sites, sparse natural
mangrove vegetation exists on mudflats
covered by grass.
Parameter Findings
2. Area Planted
The planting has been done on completely or
partially blank mudflats and interspaces within
the existing sparse natural vegetation of
Avicennia marina at both the sites.
Based on GIS maps, the net tackled area at
Shah Bundar during 2013 has been estimated
to be approximately 1580 ha against 1500 ha
claimed by SFD-CFD.
Whereas, the planted area at Keti Bundar is
estimated to be 770 ha against reported area
of 500 ha by SFD-CFD (Area planted in GWR).
Hence, the total area planted under the
project comes to be (10,350)ha against the
reported area of 10000 ha planted by SFD-CFD.
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0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009-2013
Sh
ah
Bu
nd
ar,
67
31
Ke
ti B
un
da
r, 3
61
9
1800 1400
2800
2000 2350
10350
ha
cta
res
Graphical Represtation of Area Planted at Both Sites
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Parameter Findings
3. Choice of species
During 2013, the Rhizophora species was
preferred for planting on 100% area both at
Shah Bundar and Keti Bundar sites.
In 2012, the species planted included mainly
Rhizophora (58%), Avicennia (34%) and
Ceriops (7%) at Shah Bundar.
36%
60%
4%
Over All Species Composition Pattern
Avicennia
Rhizophora
Ceriops
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Parameter Findings
4. Planting Pattern The planting pattern involved linear-block
fashion with overall 10’x10’ spacing between
plants and rows. In most of the areas the
planting distance was found to be consistent
with the spacing prescribed in the project
document.
0 20 40 60 80
Avicennia
Rhizophora
Ceriops
Coverred Area (%)
Sp
eci
es
Species Composition Patterns
Keti Bundar
Shah Bundar
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Parameter Findings
5. Survival Percentage Mangrove plantations raised during 2013 at
Shah Bundar showed 96 % survival success and
100% at Keti Bundar* respectively. (Data
collected in June, 2013 and Area was planted
in GWR). The actual survival percentage may
vary and depends on the growth and
germination pattern of the propagules planted
under the remaining target of 2000 ha in
2013. The monitoring phase for the newly
planted area covers only the verification of the
area and verification of the number of
hectares planted in the 2013 from months of
May - June, 2013 )
Whereas, the survival percentage at Shah
Bundar was recorded as 74% (72% in 2011)
and at Keti Bundar 76% (77% in 2011) during
the current year monitoring. The data variation
reflects that it has improved by 2% at Shah
Bundar and decreased by 1% at Keti Bundar,
which is satisfactory survival level in the
planted areas (2009-2012).
Parameter Findings
6. Success Percentage of previous
years’ mangrove plantations
Old mangrove plantations raised by CFD
during 2009 to 2011 at Keti Bundar (2849 ha)
showed 76 % overall survival and success rate
and at Shah Bundar (5151 ha), showed overall
survival 74% (Data collected in May, 2013)
The mangrove plantation raised during 2012 at
Shah Bundar, showed the overall survival
Keti Bundar
Over All
0
20
40
60
80
100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Keti Bundar 76 84 87 0 100
Shah Bundar 64 70 81 61.5 96
Over All 70 77 84 61.5 98
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Comparative Survival Patterens - Year
Wise
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61.5%. The most obvious reason for a lower
level of success appeared to be the poor seed
year for mangroves in Pakistan. The seed
growth vigor was poor and this along with
some wrong selection of species for planting
i.e. planting of Rhizophora in high/low lands
and barren mudflats, resulted in a low rate of
inundation in highlands and washing in low
lands. This also caused planted propagules to
be flushed away due to fast receding tidal
flows in low lands. At some places the barren
mud flats with high salinity were also tackled.
Parameter Findings
7. Planting Process and Approach SFD used community involvement approach in
the management of mangrove forests in Indus
Delta by deploying the local community, CBO’s
identified by the NRSP for raising nurseries and
plantations
The indirect role of NRSP in community
mobilization for mangrove planting
component was observed, as the plantation
watchers belonged to COs organized by NRSP.
IUCN Pakistan organized trainings jointly with
SFD before the start of planting seasons
wherein the participating communities, field
staff, labourers and plantation watchers were
trained in different aspects of mangrove
planting processes including site selection,
choice of species and nursery raising.
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The local populations have started the
appreciating the mangrove plantation work
jointly with them as they are the end users.
This initiative of the community involvement
by SFD and the management of natural
resources jointly well received at different
forums and appreciated. As in many countries
governments are keen to involve the
communities in the management of natural
resources as this approach has proved to be
successful in the sustainable management of
resources.
Parameter Findings
8. Adopted Protection Measures In Shah Bundar, four members of the regular
staff of CFD are involved in the protection of
the planted areas. In addition, seven
community members have been engaged as
paid watchers to undertake regular patrolling
of the area.
In order to protect the area from camel
grazing, wire fencing has been done at
potential camel crossings. The current
protection measures were so far found
effective as the previously grazed and stunted
mangrove vegetation is in the process of
recovery.
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Natural recovery of such areas due to these
protective measures may be considered as
incremental benefits of the project
interventions and an achievement. Due to
protection measures the rate of the natural
growth is also appreciable as all the mud flats
are well covered with natural growth and
regeneration.
At Keti Bundar, four members of the regular
forest staff and six watchers/chowkidars (on
contractual basis) have been engaged in the
protection of the plantation.
Additionally, through negotiation with the
local Jat community a corridor has been
provided and left as a passage for their camel
movement to avoid damage to planted areas
tackled by CFD.
Natural Regeneration
Parameter Findings
Estimation of Natural Regeneration Due to regular protection and conservation of
the planted stock profuse natural regeneration
of Avicennia has been observed in the planted
areas. There is also notable increases in
number of naturally regenerating saplings
within the planted areas.
20
The number of naturally regenerating saplings
at Keti Bundar has been estimated in 2013 as
2536 saplings/ha and 477 saplings/ha at Shah
Bundar (2009-2012).
The number of naturally regenerating saplings
at Keti Bundar has been estimated to be 763,
1659 and 3619 saplings/ha within the planted
areas during 2011, 2010 and 2009 respectively.
Whereas, the number of naturally
regenerating saplings within the planted areas
at Shah Bundar has been estimated to be 258,
77 and 512 saplings/ha within the planted
areas during 2011, 2010 and 2009 respectively.
If these planted areas are protected
continuously, the incremental benefits of
natural regeneration may overshadow the
number of plants actually planted under the
project. Hence, this will be a great
achievement of SFD in terms that due to
plantation, conservation and site protection
efforts the barren areas once fully covered
with mangroves, recovered back to the natural
state.
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Recovery of old Natural Mangrove Vegetation
Parameter Findings
Estimation of Old Natural Growth A lot of natural old growth of Avicennia spp.
was observed recovering within the planted
areas due to consistent protection against
animal grazing.
At Keti Bundar the number of recovering old
naturally growing plants has been estimated to
be 68, 325 and 250 plants/ha within the areas
planted during 2011, 2010 and 2009,
respectively. The height of these plants varied
from 3’-5’.
Whereas, at Shah Bundar, the number of
recovering old naturally growing mangrove
plants was estimated to be 63, 0 and 129
plants/ha within the planted areas during
2011, 2010 and 2009 respectively. The height
of these plants varied from 1.5’-5’.
If protected continually, these may be
considered as incremental benefits of the
project.
22
Biodiversity Improvement in Planted Areas
Parameter Findings
Biodiversity Status In the SFD planted area's biodiversity has
improved significantly and the Crabs(Mud
Crab), Bird species, Butterfly species were
observed on the mud flats/mangroves and in
creeks during the monitoring visits
V. DISCUSSION
Based on field visit, the following observations related to technical aspects and adopted planting
approach have been recorded. These observations/comments would provide useful direction
and guidance for similar future interventions/projects in the Indus Delta.
i. Technical Aspect of the Project
a. Estimated Survival Percentage
Based on the analysis of the field data the survival % in the mangrove areas planted under the
project at Keti Bundar and Shah Bundar during various years is summarized in Table I.
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Table I: Survival/success % of Mangrove Areas Planted under SCCCDP
Site Survival/Success %
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
% % %
%
%
Keti
Bundar
100* -
-
87 84 76
Shah
Bundar
96 61.5 81 70 64
Overall 98
61.5
84 77 70
* The data reflects the ver if icat ion of planted area (GWR, 22 June, 2013 )
The detailed statistical analysis for Shah Bundar and Keti Bundar is shown as Annexure –II.
The survival rate in newly planted areas in 2013, at Shah Bundar was recorded as 96% and 100%
at Keti Bundar with overall 98% success level was recorded at both sites. At Keti Bundar, the
aggregate survival/success in areas planted since 2009 was found to be 76% in 2013 (77%
recorded in 2011) against the aggregate survival/success of 74% in 2013 (72% recorded in 2011)
as were observed at Shah Bundar in May, 2013.
A very consistent level of survival/success was observed at both sites, apparently due to a
regular level of protection of the entire planted areas.
b. Plant Growth
At Shah Bundar the growth of Rhizophora is good, in the grassy mudflats covered with sparse
natural vegetation of Avicennia. The height of Rhizophora plants varied from 14”-26” and leaf
count 10-14 leaves in the plantations raised by CFD-SFD in 2012. The height of Avicennia plants
varied from 11”-16” and leaf count was observed between 10-30 leaves in these plantations. The
height of Ceriops Tagal plants varied from 7”-11” and leaf count 6-106.
24
As far as previous year’s plant growth is concerned, at Keti Bundar, good growth of Rhizophora
was observed in the grassy mud flats covered with sparse natural vegetation of Avicennia. The
height of Rhizophora plants varied from 10”-4’ and leaf count 10-56 leaves in plantations raised
in different years. The height of Avicennia plants varied from 4”-3’ and leaf count 18-700 leaves
in plantations raised in different years.
Similarly, at Shah Bundar, good growth of all mangrove species in the grassy mudflats was
observed in the areas covered with sparse natural vegetation of Avicennia. The height of
Rhizophora plants varied from 16”-3’ and leaf count 10-36 leaves in plantations raised during
2009-2011. The height of Avicennia plants varied from 10”-2’ and leaf count 14-60 leaves in the
plantations raised during the years of from 2011 - 2009.
The damaged natural vegetation with stunt growth due to overgrazing by camels was also found
to be recovering at various places due to the vigilance of the protective staff of SFD.
c. Choice of Species and Planting Methodology
Under the technical features of the project, two main species of mangroves Avicennia and
Rhizophora have to be planted in mixed and single species clusters and belts of 50 to 100 meters
width, and at a density of approximately 1100 plants per ha’. However, the specific definition of
“cluster” has not been prescribed in PC-I. Unless otherwise specified, the density of 1100
plants/ha prescribed in the PCI appears to reflect normal practice of raising mangrove plantation
blocks at 10’x10’ spacing i.e. one plant per nine square meters.
The field observations revealed that separate blocks of single species have been planted at both
the sites. The Avicennia and Ceriops were planted through seeds and Rhizophora were sown
through propagules directly.
The monoculture approach was adopted in the current year plantation at Shah Bundar and Keti
Bundar and Rhizophora macronata species was planted (100%) at both sites in 2013.
The species composition in the areas planted Shah Bundar during 2012 includes Rhizophora
(58%); Avicennia (34%) and Ceriops (7%). Much balanced and diverse species composition was
observed at Shah Bundar in the areas planted during this year.
At Keti Bundar, Rhizophora appeared to be the single most species planted during 2011
occupying almost 89% of the total planted area. The remaining 11% area was planted with
Avicennia. This approach reflects a significant shift from a much balanced and diverse species
composition followed during the previous years and as prescribed in PC-I. The most obvious
reasons for this approach seem to be easier planting of Rhizophora propagules as compared to
planting of other mangrove species.
As far as previous years’ mangrove plantations are concerned, the species composition in the
areas planted at Keti Bundar during 2010 includes Avicennia (53%), Rhizophora (47%); whereas,
the species composition planted during 2009 includes Avicennia (54%), Rhizophora (43%) and
mixed species (13%).
A much balanced and diverse species composition was observed at Shah Bundar in the areas
planted during 2011 which included Avicinnea (47%), Rhizophora (37%) and Ceriops (11%).
Whereas, species composition in the areas planted at Shah Bundar during 2010 included
25
Avicennia (85%), Rhizophora (15%), and the species composition planted during 2009 includes
Avicennia (83%), Rhizophora (17%).
A comparative species wise composition of planted area is shown in Table II & III.
Table II: Species-wise composition & % at Shah Bundar and Estimated Coverage
# Species Year of Planting
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
(%)
Est.
Area
(Ha)
(%)
Est.
Area
(Ha)
(%) Est.
Area
(Ha)
(%) Est.
Area
(Ha)
(%) Est.
Are
a
(Ha)
1 Avicennia - - 34% 680 47% 698 85% 570 83% 785
2 Rhizophora 100% 1580 58% 1160 37% 549 15% 101 - -
3 Ceriops - - 8% 160 11% 163 - - - -
4 Blank - - - 5% 74 - - 17% 161
Total 100% 1580 100% 2000 100% 1485 100% 671 100% 946
Table III: Species-wise composition & % at Keti Bundar
# Species Year of Planting
2013 2011 2010 2009
(%) Est. Area
(Ha)
(%) Est.
Area
(Ha)
(%) Est.
Area
(Ha)
(%) Est. Area
(Ha)
1 Avicennia - - 11% 148 47% 290 54% 443
Rhizophora 100% 770 89% 1200 53% 326 33% 271
Ceriops - - - - - - - -
Mixed (Avicennia+
ceriops/
Rhizophora)
- - - - - 13% 106
Blank - - - - - - -
Total 100% 770 100% 1348 100% 616 100% 820
The higher survival percentage of all mangrove species were observed on grassy mud flats with
scattered natural growth of Avicennia. Hence, it is suggested to plant Rhizophora only in grassy
mudflats. Completely barren and low-lying mudflats should be avoided for Rhizophora planting
in future projects/interventions.
In the barren areas with suitable soil conditions, direct seed sowing or wildlings of Avicennia may
be preferred. Moreover, it is emphasized that wherever possible mixed plantation of mangrove
species shall be preferred for better environmental benefits.
d. Area Planted
In 2013 the analysis of maps based on GIS of the actual area planted at Shah Bundar has been
estimated to be 1580 ha against the reported area of 1500 ha and at Keti Bundar 770 ha against
the reported area of 500 ha. The net difference in the actual planted area and reported area
comes to plus 350 ha against the total target of 2000 ha allocated to SFD-CFD for year, 2013
under the project.
Similarly, based on GIS maps the actual area planted at Keti Bundar has been estimated to be
3554 ha against the reported area of 3349 ha. Whereas, the actual area planted at Shah Bundar
26
was estimated to be 6696 ha against the reported area of 6651 ha. The net difference in actual
planted area and reported area comes to be plus 250 ha against the total target of 10,000 ha
allocated to SFD-CFD under the project. A comparative position of actual area planted under the
project since 2009 and the area reported by SFD-CFD is shown in Table IV.
Volunteer Planters celeberating after setting GWR by planning 847,275 propagules in one day
Table IV: Comparative Position of Actual and Reported Area Planted under SCCDP Since 2009
Site Keti Bundar Shah Bundar
Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Total 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Total
Actual Area Planted
(Ha)
770 0 1348 616 820 3554 1580 2014 1485 671 946 6696
SFD-CFD Reported
(Ha)
500 0 1300 716.5 832.5 3349 1500 2000 1500 683.5 967.5 6651
Difference +270 0 +48 -100.5 -12.5 +205 +80 14 -15 -12.5 -21.5 +45
e. Container Plant Nursery
At Shah Bundar and Keti Bundar, two mangrove nurseries were maintained during 2013 and
these were restocked from January to May, 2013 at both sites. Overall, 442,215 saplings of
various mangrove species were present in both nurseries during field monitoring in the month of
May-June, 2013 as indicated in Table, V & VII. At Keti Bundar the stock position was 198,215 and
at Shah Bundar was 244,000 respectively.
As per stock register of CFD, the stock position reported at Keti Bundar is 208,333 which is
reflected in Table VI, and 223,333 at Shah Bundar which is reflected in Table VIII. The overall
stock position shown on both sites is 431,666. The remaining nursery stock is 10,549 saplings as
per calculation which will be utilized in the maintenance of the planted areas in future.
The overall picture of opening stock balance at CFD nurseries, new raising and stock
consumption species wise is shown in Tables VI and VIII.
Table V: Container Plant Stock Position at Keti Bundar Nursery
# Species No of Beds Saplings Per Bed Total No of
Saplings
1 Ceriops tagal 7 975 6825
Sub Total 6825
2 Rhizophora mucronata 18 1540 27720
29 1040 30160
26 1120 29120
25 910 22750
29 1000 29000
37 720 26640
Sub Total 165390
3 Blank 25 1040 26000
Sub Total 26000
Total 198215
SFD Mangrove Nursery at Keti Bundar
29
Table VI: Container Plants Raising as per Stock Register at Keti Bundar Nursery
Container Plants Raising As Per Stock Register At Keti Bundar Nursery
Month Species Opening
Balance
New
Raising
Consumption Closing
Balance
Nov: 2012 Rhizophora mucronata 160000 0 35000 125000
Avicennia marina 10500 0 0 10500
Sub Total 170500 0 0 135500
35000
Dec: 2012 Rhizophora mucronata 125000 0 60000 65000
Avicennia marina 10500 0 5500 5000
Sub Total 135500 0 65500 70000
Jan: 2013 Rhizophora mucronata 65000 50000 65000 50000
Avicennia marina 5000 5000 0
Sub Total 70000 50000 70000 50000
Feb: 2013 Rhizophora mucronata 50000 0 0 50000
Sub Total 50000 0 0 50000
Mar: 2013 Rhizophora mucronata 50000 0 0 50000
Sub Total 50000 0 0 50000
Apr: 2013 Rhizophora mucronata 50000 0 35000 15000
Sub Total 50000 0 35000 15000
May:
2013
Rhizophora mucronata 15000 208333 15000 208333
Sub Total 15000 208333 15000 208333
Total − 258333 220500 −
SFD Mangrove Nursery at Shah Bundar
30
Table VII: Container Plant Stock Position at Shah Bundar Nursery
# Species No of Beds Saplings Per Bed Total No of
Saplings
Nursery – I
1 Avicennia marina 12 1800 21600
11 1500 16500
Sub Total 38100
2 Aegicerus corniculatum 12 910 10920
9 720 6480
Sub Total 17400
3 Ceriops tagal 18 960 17280
10 1980 19800
Sub Total 37080
4 Rhizophora mucronata 15 1980 29700
17 3960 67320
Sub Total 97020
Total Nursery-I 189600
Nursery – II
1 Rhizophora mucronata 35 560 19600
18 720 12960
28 780 21840
Sub Total 54400
Total Nursery-II 54400
G.Total 244000
Table VIII: Container Plants Raising as per Stock Register at Shah Bundar Nursery
Container Plants Raising As Per Stock Register At Shah Bundar Nursery
Month Species Opening
Balance
New
Raising
Consumption Closing
Balance
Nov: 2012 Rhizophora mucronata 100003 0 0 100003
Avicennia marina 75000 0 0 75000
Ceriops tagal 670 0 0 670
Aegicerus corniculatum 5000 0 0 5000
Sub Total 180673 0 0 180673
Dec: 2012 Rhizophora mucronata 100003 0 30003 70000
Avicennia marina 75000 0 25000 50000
Ceriops tagal 670 0 0 670
Aegicerus corniculatum 5000 0 0 5000
Sub Total 0 55003 306343
Jan: 2013 Rhizophora mucronata 70000 0 30000 40000
Avicennia marina 50000 0 25000 25000
Ceriops tagal 670 35000 0 35670
31
Aegicerus corniculatum 5000 15000 5000 15000
Sub Total 50000 115003 115670
Feb: 2013 Rhizophora mucronata 40000 0 20000 20000
Avicennia marina 25000 0 15000 10000
Ceriops tagal 35670 0 0 35670
Aegicerus corniculatum 15000 0 0 15000
Sub Total 0 35000 80670
Mar:
2013
Rhizophora mucronata 20000 0 20000 0
Avicennia marina 10000 0 10000 0
Ceriops tagal 35670 0 0 35670
Aegicerus corniculatum 15000 0 0 15000
Sub Total 0 30000 50670
Apr: 2013 Rhizophora mucronata 0 0 0 0
Avicennia marina 0 0 0 0
Ceriops tagal 35670 0 20000 15670
Aegicerus corniculatum 15000 0 0 15000
Sub Total 0 20000 30670
May:
2013
Rhizophora mucronata 0 126333 0 126333
Avicennia marina 0 40000 0 40000
Ceriops tagal 15670 40000 15670 40000
Aegicerus corniculatum 15000 2000 0 17000
Sub Total 208333 15670 223333
Total − 258333 270676 −
ii. Planting Process and Approach
a. Community Engagement
The planting process followed by SFD-CFD represented a conventional approach, mixed with
community engagement in the process. The indirect role of NRSP in community mobilization for
mangrove planting component was found useful, as community members from the organized
communities participated in the plantation campaigns.
IUCN Pakistan organized trainings jointly with SFD before the start of planting season wherein
the participating communities, field staff, labourers and plantation watchers were formally
trained in different aspects of mangrove planting processes including site selection, choice of
species and nursery raising.
32
b. Organisational Collaboration
As per project design, IUCN has been assigned the role of continuous monitoring of
departmental mangrove component in addition to the Environmental Assessment (EA) and
monitoring of crabs and fishing ponds. Beneficiaries income generating activities have been
encouraged to be environmentally friendly and sustainable through the ongoing work of NRSP
and IUCN to train fishermen/villagers in the approaches and in overall sustainable environmental
management IUCN Pakistan as particularly monitored and reported on the SFD plantations and
the Shrimps & crab ponds under the Sindh Coastal Community Development Project. All the
concerned departments including IUCN, NRSP and Sindh Forest Department involved in their
sphere in order to monitor and evaluate the coastal community development works.
VI. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
1. The overall conclusion is that the Sindh Forest Department has attempted the target of
mangrove plantation over 10,000 ha assigned to them under SCCDP with the overall
highly satisfaction level of survival or success.
2. Up to 2013 the net area planted has been estimated 10,250 ha against reported areas
10,000 ha by SFD, with a net difference of 250 ha which makes 2.43% of the total target
area which is surplus to the actual target. The Sindh Forest Department successfully
achieved 100% target by June 2013. The Sindh Forest Department sets Guiness World
Record on June 22, 2013 by planting 847,275 (770 ha) mangrove propagules in Turchan
Creek at Kharo Chan in one day time.
3. The excellent survival rate was recorded in the areas planted during 2013, at Shah
Bundar with 96% and at Keti Binder 100%, with overall success of 98%.
4. Monoculture approach was adopted in 2013 plantation and single species (Rhizophora)
were preferred at both the sites (Shah Bundar and Keti Bundar).
5. The observed percentage of survival (2009-2012 plantation) has been estimated 76% at
at Keti Bundar and 74% at Shah Bundar, which may be considered as a reasonably good
success considering the adverse silvicultural and climatic factors. However the rate of
growth and overall health of the plantations were found good.
6. In the newly planted area the natural regeneration of Avicennia Spp: is coming up very
well and it needs immediate thinning operations in order to reduce the competition for
food, light and space among the young growth.
7. Establishing mangrove nurseries in the target areas provided backbone support in
maintaining the plantations during nonseeding months of the year. Training and skill
imparting program for the field staff and community in nursery raising is value addition
and a long term investment in the mangrove foresty. Skilled staff protected and looked
after nurseries effectively and monitoring results shown that the mortality remained less
over the project period. Good and healthy saplings were observed during the frequent
monitoring process. The practice of raising container plant nursery should be continued
for the purpose of maintenance, gap filling and restocking in failure areas as a back up
for raising mangrove plantation in non-seeding season.
33
8. The area has a history of grazing of camels and live stock. In order to protect them from
grazing/browsing and tampering, especially in winter when the forage and fodder is
scarce inland, the protection staff has to be vigilant round the clock.
9. Maintenance of the young mangroves plantations should be a priority for the field staff.
There is a frequent change in climatic conditions and the oceanographic regime, which
disturbs the growth rate of mangrove plants. Most of the plantations are still young and
require continuous maintenance.
10. Unfortunately, the community/CBOs are still reluctant to take full charge of the
mangrove plantations. As a result, SFD has to play its limited role in maintenance of
young plantations in the future. Although, various coastal community development
works have opened the venues in terms of some monetary benefits for the coastal
communities, yet the time is required to acknowledge them . This has led to a slow
down of activities under environmental awareness raising programs.
11. Despite the delay in starting the project, SFD has shown good progress in restoration of
mangroves. Initiatives involving communities have been largely successful. However,
future work will depend upon strategic priorities set out by the programme and upon
donor responses to related project proposal.
12. A lot of naturally regenerating saplings and old scattered natural growth of Avicinnea
continue to emerge with in the planted areas due to protection efforts.
13. A balanced and diverse species composition is to be preferred in future plantations.
Avicennia being more a salinity-tolerant mangrove species in the Indus Delta shall be
preferred in difficult areas in planting activities. Rhizophora planting in blank and open
mudflats should be avoided. It should only be planted in areas surrounded by sparse
natural vegetation of Avicennia or in grassy mudflats covered with Aleuropus and
Arthrocnemum grasses.
14. In the areas where natural regeneration is more profuse, protection of area shall be
given priority.
15. Progress reports (Notes), area maps/sketches, GPS coordinates, GIS map development
are an effective tools and should be continued and priority be given as it has proved an
effective means in planning, implementation, management and monitoring the areas
tackled under SCCDP
16. Monitoring and evaluation exercise should be a permanent feature of such
interdepartmental and multidisciplinary projects. .
35
Turchan Creek, Kharo Chan, map Shared by Sindh Forest Department, 2013
36
Annexure I: Lists OF Randomly Selected Coordinates
Based on http://www.graphpad.com/quickcalcs/randomn2.cfm
Shah Bundar Shah Bundar North Latitude (Extent 23⁰ ' " to ⁰ ' ") East longitude (Extent 67⁰ ' " to ⁰ ' ")
North Latitude (Extent 23⁰ ' " to ⁰ ' ") East longitude (Extent 67⁰ ' " to ⁰ ' ")
# North Latitude East Logitude North Latitude East Logitude
1 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
2 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
3 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
4 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
5 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
6 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
7 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
8 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
9 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
10 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
11 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
12 24° ' . "N ° ' . "E
13 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
14 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
15 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
16 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
17 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
18 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
19 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
20 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
21 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
22 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
23 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
24 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
25 ° ' . "N ° ' . "E
37
Annexure I: Lists OF Randomly Selected Coordinates
Based on http://www.graphpad.com/quickcalcs/randomn2.cfm
2009-2012
Shah Bundar Keti Bundar North Latitude (Extent 24
0 07’ 22” to 24
0 11’ 15”)
East longitude (Extent 670 47’ 02” to 67
0 49’ 50”)
North Latitude (Extent 240 08’ 18” to 24
0 11’ 38”)
East longitude (Extent 670 22’ 56” to 67
0 27’ 44”)
# North Latitude East Logitude North Latitude East Longitude
1 24 09 30 67 48 43 24 08 43 67 25 56
2 24 10 15 67 47 20 24 10 17 67 26 31
3 24 07 50 67 48 14 24 09 52 67 25 01
4 24 08 27 67 49 19 24 09 23 67 26 47
5 24 08 08 67 47 48 24 09 44 67 26 23
6 24 10 51 67 48 33 24 11 00 67 23 05
7 24 10 18 67 48 23 24 10 30 67 25 22
8 24 07 38 67 49 04 24 09 49 67 23 50
9 24 09 29 67 47 52 24 10 53 67 26 02
10 24 09 54 67 47 53 24 10 42 67 23 59
11 24 05 17 67 49 42 24 09 56 67 26 53
12 24 05 24 67 50 15 24 09 36 67 25 57
13 24 04 45 67 49 56 24 10 10 67 25 04
14 24 10 04 67 24 26
15 24 10 40 67 26 59
16 24 09 35 67 26 56
17 24 09 25 67 24 07
Shah Bundar North Latitude (Extent 24
0 03’ 50” to 24
0 06’ 00”)
East longitude (Extent 680 01’ 38” to 68
0 03’ 42”)
18 24 05 40 68 02 41
19 24 04 57 68 02 30
20 24 04 34 68 03 34
21 24 04 14 68 02 05
22 24 05 13 68 03 11
23 24 03 56 68 03 09
38
ANNEXURE – II: Statistical Analysis
Shah Bundar 2013:
The sample variance and standard deviation could be calculated using the following formula:
Sample Variance = Sum (∑) of s ui ed deviatio s f o mean divided by degree of freedom, is given by:
Where X is sample value, and x is sample mean, n-1 is degree of freedom.
Sample variance (S2) for living plants could be calculated as follows:
S2
= 472.1834
59
(from Excel sheet)
S2
= 8.0031
Sample Standard Deviation (S) is squire root of variance. Therefore, sample standard deviation (S) for living plants
would be:
S= 8.0031 = 2.8289
SE(surviving plants) = 2.8289
60
SE = 0.365219
The confidence interval for the population mean constructed at 0.05 significance level gives the following range of
mean population survival:
t > α/2, n-1 = t.025, 60 = 2.00 (from t-table)
Therefore:
10.40
2.8289
± 2.00 60
= 10.40 ± 2.00 X 0.3652
= 10.40 ± 0.7304
Hence, we are 95% confident that the mean population survival % ( µ ) in all sample plots lies between 11.1304
plants/sample plot or1193 plants/ha (103%) and 9.669 plants/sample plot or 966 plants/ha (89%). In other words, the
mean population plant survival is 10.40 plants/sample plot or 1040 plants/ha (96%) with a margin of error ± 0.7304
(7%).
Standard Error = = Standard Deviation (S)
n
39
Shah Bundar 2013 (2009,2010 & 2011):
The sample variance and standard deviation could be calculated using the following formula:
Sample Variance = Sum (∑) of s ui ed deviatio s f o ea divided by deg ee of f eedo , is give by:
Where X is sample value, and x is sample mean, n-1 is degree of freedom.
Sample variance (S2) for living plants could be calculated as follows:
S2
= 453.795
37
(from Excel sheet)
S2
= 12.2647
Sample Standard Deviation (S) is squire root of variance. Therefore, sample standard deviation (S) for living plants
would be:
S= 12.2647 = 3.502
SE(surviving plants) = 3.502
38
SE = 0.568
The confidence interval for the population mean constructed at 0.05 significance level gives the following range of
mean population survival:
t > α/2, n-1 = t.025,18 = 2.101 (from t-table)
Therefore:
8
3.502
± 2.021 38
= 8± 2.021 X 0.568
= 8± 1.1479
Hence, we are 95% confident that the mean population survival % (µ ) in all transacts lies between 9.1479
plants/sample plot or 914 plants/ha (84%) and 6.8521 plants/sample plot or 685 plants/ha (63%). In other words, the
mean population plant survival is 8 plants/sample plot or 800 plants/ha (74%) with a margin of error ± 1.1479aha
(11%).
Standard Error = = Standard Deviation (S)
n
40
Keti Bundar 2013 (2009,2010 & 2011):
The sample variance and standard deviation could be calculated using the following formula:
Sample Variance = Sum (∑) of s ui ed deviatio s f o ea divided by deg ee of freedom, is given by:
Where X is sample value, and x is sample mean, n-1 is degree of freedom.
Sample variance (S2) for living plants could be calculated as follows:
S2
= 360.138
33
(from Excel sheet)
S2
= 10.913
Sample Standard Deviation (S) is squire root of variance. Therefore, sample standard deviation (S) for living plants
would be:
S= 10.913 = 3.3035
SE(surviving plants) = 3.3035
34
SE = 0.5665
The confidence interval for the population mean constructed at 0.05 significance level gives the following range of
mean population survival:
t > α/2, n-1 = t.025, 34 = 2.042 (from t-table)
Therefore:
8.2352
3.3035
± 2.042 34
= 8.2352± 2.042 X 0.5665
= 8.2352± 1.1567
Hence, we are 95% confident that the mean population survival % (µ ) in all transacts lies between 9.391
plants/sample plot or 940 plants/ha (87%) and 7.078 plants/sample plot or 708 plants/ha (66%). In other words, the
mean population plant survival is 8.235 (76%) with a margin of error ± 1.156 (11%).
Standard Error = = Standard Deviation (S)
n
41
Shah Bundar & Keti Bundar 2013 (2009,2010 & 2011) (Both sites):
The sample variance and standard deviation could be calculated using the following formula:
Sample Variance = Sum (∑) of s ui ed deviations from mean divided by degree of freedom, is given by:
Where X is sample value, and x is sample mean, n-1 is degree of freedom.
Sample variance (S2) for living plants could be calculated as follows:
S2
= 884.8522 (from Excel sheet)
71
S2
= 12.4627
Sample Standard Deviation (S) is squire root of variance. Therefore, sample standard deviation (S) for living plants
would be:
S= 12.4627 = 3.5302
SE(surviving plants) = 3.5302
72
SE = 0.4209
The confidence interval for the population mean constructed at 0.05 significance level gives the following range of
mean population survival:
t > α/2, n-1 = t.025,18 = 1.99 (from t-table)
Therefore: 3.502
8.111± 1.99 72
= 8.111± 1.99 X 0.4209
= 8.111± 0.8375
Hence, we are 95% confident that the mean population survival % (µ ) in all transacts lies between 8.948
plants/sample plot or 914 plants/ha (83%) and 7.272 plants/sample plot or 685 plants/ha (67%). In other words, the
mean population plant survival is 8.111 plants/sample plot or 811 plants/ha (75%) with a margin of error ±0.8375aha (8%).
Standard Error = = Standard Deviation (S)
n
42
Shah Bundar 2012:
The sample variance and standard deviation could be calculated using the following formula:
Sample Variance = Sum (∑) of s ui ed deviatio s f o ea divided by deg ee of f eedo , is give by:
Where X is sample value, and x is sample mean, n-1 is degree of freedom.
Sample variance (S2) for living plants could be calculated as follows:
S2
= 1237.08 (from Excel sheet)
79
S2
= 15.659
Sample Standard Deviation (S) is squire root of variance. Therefore, sample standard deviation (S) for living plants
would be:
S= 15.659 = 3.957
SE(surviving plants) = 3.957
80
SE = 0.442
The confidence interval for the population mean constructed at 0.05 significance level gives the following range of
mean population survival:
t > α/2, n-1 = t.025,79 = 1.990 (from t-table)
Therefore: 3.957
6.575± 1.990 80
= 6.575± 1.990 X 0.442
= 6.575± 0.879
Hence, we are 95% confident that the mean population survival % (µ ) in all sample plots lies between 7.454
plants/sample plot or 745 plants/ha (68%) and 5.696 plants/sample plot or 570 plants/ha (52%). In other words, the
mean population plant survival is 6.575 plants/sample plot or 657 plants/ha (61.5%) with a margin of error ± 0.879
(8%).
Standard Error = = Standard Deviation (S)
n
43
Mangroves are salt tolerant plants that grow in inter-tidal zone in
estuarine regions and deltas along coastlines and constitute important
coastal wetland ecosystems. They protect coastlines, coastal cities,
villages, hamlets, communities, and coastal installations from wind and
tidal action, and are considered as major defensive shield against
cyclones and tsunamis.
Mangrove ecosystems provide numerous goods and services including
support to the fisheries sector by serving as breeding grounds for
shrimp and fish species; acting as nesting grounds for numerous flora
and fauna and providing fuelwood for communities and fodder for
livestock.
Pakistan has a long coastline extending to about 1,026km, along the
coasts of Baluchistan and Sindh bordering the Arabian Sea. The Sindh
province has a coastline of approximately 350 kilometres, a major
portion of which comprises of the Indus Delta a Creek system on river
Indus.
The Indus delta mangroves cover an area of 600,000 hectares (Ha)
consisting of 17 major creeks and extensive mudflats and is one of the
largest expanse of mangroves in the world extending from Korangi
Creek in Karachi (west), to Sir Creek adjacent to the Indian border (east).
Pakistan’s mangrove ecosystem provides a number of valuable goods
and services including supporting the fisheries sector: approximately
200 species of fishes are reported to be found from the Delta. In
addition, mangroves are a nesting ground for wildlife of terrestrial and
marine origin including green turtles, dolphins and migratory birds.
Local communities depend on mangroves for household uses including
construction and energy needs. Mangrove fodder is used for livestock
and camel browse on these mangroves. Mangroves also hold strong
potential as a source of earning from tourism and recreation.
Inadequate flows from upstream, indiscriminate cutting, grazing, lack
of awareness, sea intrusion and pollution.
Indus delta was originally home to eight species, only four remain:
Avicennia marina, Rhizophoramucronata, Ceriopstagaland
Aegiceruscorniculatum.
Pakistan’s current mangrove forest cover is approximately 80, 000 Ha. It
has declined rapidly over a period of past 80 years due to various
anthropogenic reasons such as upstream cut off in Indus River water
INTERNATIONAL UNION
FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE
PAKISTAN PROGRAMME
1, Bath Island Road
Clifton – 75500
Karachi, Pakistan
Tel. +92 2135861540
Fax +92 21 35861544
www.iucn.org