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Kjell Aleklett

Kjell AleklettUppsala University, Sweden

Exploring the Evidence of Peak Oil ProductionWorkshop on Trends in Oil Supply and Demand and Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production

Washington, DC, October 20-21, 2005

Kjell Aleklett

Letter from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

WWW.KVA.SE

Kjell Aleklett

The future of energy

The end of the Oil AgeOct 23rd 2003 Leaders from The Economist print edition

Kjell Aleklett

IEA, International Energy Agency, and the future

Fathi Birol

Kjell Aleklett

IEA, (InternationalInternationalInternational) The OECD Energy Agency

Fathi Birol

Kjell Aleklett

Kjell Aleklett

Oil is the driving force of the world economy

Relation between Oil Demand and GDP Growth, figure 3.1 in WEO2004

Kjell Aleklett

Kjell Aleklett

Olja föder välfärd

Kjell Aleklett

Numbers for China

Percentage of global population: 21%

Percentage of global oil consumption: 8%, 6.3 Mbpd

Average increase in GDP last 5 years: 8.2 %

Average increase in oil consumption last 5 years: 8.4 %

Official statement is that China will reach Peak Oil in 2009

Future directions:

Consumption of 21% of the global oil: Today 17.6 mbpd, year 2030 25 mbpd

Questions:

Is it OK that China consume 21% of the global oil production?

Is it possible for the oil exporting countries to deliver 22 mbpd to China in 2030?

Kjell Aleklett

Kjell Aleklett

IEA uses data from USGS

If not 3300 Gb then ……….

Kjell Aleklett

100 Gb of oil in the fields of Iraq

Kirkuk

Rumaila

Majnoon

West Qurna

East Baghdad

Kjell Aleklett

Kirkuk

Rumaila

Majnoon

West Qurna

East Baghdad

Let us squeeze in

100 Gb of oil into one bottle of

Champagne.

The Oil Champagne Comparisons

Kjell Aleklett

There is one bottle in Iraq and if we pore the content into four glasses each glass represents a consumption of 25 billion barrels per year. This was the consumption around year 2000, today

we consume 30 billion barrels per year.


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Consumption so far


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Consumption so far

Reserves according to IEA

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Consumption so far

Reserves according to ASPO?

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Consumption so far


According to IEA base scenario we must find 13 more bottleswithin the next 25 years

Kjell Aleklett


Consumption so far


According to IEA base scenario we must find 13 more bottleswithin the next 20 years

?

?

Kjell Aleklett

USGS and Oil in USA

USGS numbers for USA year 2025:

F95 = 345 Gb

Mean = 362 Gb

F5 = 383 Gb

Kjell Aleklett

Kjell Aleklett

Shell Scenarios

05

1015202530354045

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Prod

uctio

n G

b/a

Dynamics as Usual - 4500+ Gb, 2700 to be foundSpirit of Coming Age - 3300 Gb, 1500 to be foundTelling the Truth - 2300 Gb, 500 to be found

Kjell Aleklett

Shell’s Experience Since 1885 (excluding USA)

01020304050607080

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Cumulative Wildcats (Shell operated)

Cum

ulat

ive

Dis

cove

ries

, Gb

Hyperbolic Model Actual

It looks as Shell will find a small fraction of the 1500 barrels to be found

Information provided by Colin Campbell

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M. KingHubbert

f. 1903, d 1989

"Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know."

Kjell Aleklett

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US Lower 48US Lower 48: annual oil "mean" discovery &

production with Hubbert discovery model

0

1

2

3

4

5

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

year

discovery smooth 5 yrmodel Hubbert disc.productionHubbert disc. shift 35 yr

deepwater

Jean Laherrère Jan. 2003

depression

oil price

proration

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0

1

2

3

4

5

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

year


deepwater


depression

oil price

proration

35 years

Kjell Aleklett

EXPERIENCE: U. S. LOWER 48 OIL PRODUCTION

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

80

0

Production

Price

Dramatic Improvement in Oil Field Technology

PRODUCTION(Billions of Barrels per

Year)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

High prices & advanced technology did not reverse trends!

PRICE(2003 $ per

barrels)

SAIC / MISI

Kjell Aleklett

USA wildcats

Kjell Aleklett



0

1

2

3

4

5

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

year


deepwater


depression

oil price

proration

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Found and produced oil in Norway

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Prod

uctio

n pe

r ye

ar [G

b]

0.0

1.8

3.6

5.4

7.2

Dis

cove

ry p

er y

ear

[Gb]

Discovery

Hubbert Curve of Discovery

Production

Production Forecast

The time between tops is 27 years

Kjell Aleklett

Oil Discovery and Production of Russia

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Year

Prod

uctio

n [G

b]

0

5

10

15

20

25

Dis

cove

ry [G

b]

ProductionDiscovery

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Peak in production

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The growing consumption and production

77.1

91.5

120.8

77.0

91.1

120.6

2001 2010 2025 2001 2010 20250.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0M

illio

n B a

rrels

per

Day

IndustrializedDeveloping AsiaOther

Consumption Production

OPECEE/FSUOther

Kjell Aleklett

Kjell Aleklett

Sadad Al Husseini26-Oct-2004

Sadad Al Husseini, just retired as vice-president of the Saudi oil company Aramco: The American government's forecast for future oil supplies are a "dangerous over-estimate".

Kjell Aleklett

IEA production forecast

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Production/Consumption

IEA: Consumption 2003 – 2030 1000 billion barrels

Kjell Aleklett

Kjell Aleklett

Oil exporting countries

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

10000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Saudi ArabiaRussian FederationNorwayIranNigeriaVenezuelaUnited Arab EmiratesKuwaitIraqMexicoLibyaKazakhstanAngolaQatarCanadaOmanSyriaVietnamYemenMalaysia

Kjell Aleklett

Global production, export and in-house crude oil statistic

0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000

100000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Thou

send

bar

rel p

er d

ay

Production Expoert Inhouse

Projected demand increase 2005-2010: 80 + 8 Million barrels per day Projected in-house production 2006-10: 32 + 0 Million barrels per day Projected export production 2006-2010: 48 + 8 Million barrels per day

Oil exporting countries must increase their export with 17% in 6 years

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Understanding technology

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How to plan production from an oilfield

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Production in realityProduction of oil and LNG from

Statfjord, Norge

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Accumulerad produktion [miljoner fat](Produktion per år)*10 [miljoner fat]

Kjell Aleklett

Production from individual fields in Norway, Ekofisk was first

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Kjell Aleklett

Production from individual fields in Norway

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Kjell Aleklett

Production from individual fields in Norway

020000000400000006000000080000000

100000000120000000140000000160000000180000000200000000

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Kjell Aleklett

Prudhoe Bay - Reported Reserves

6789

10111213141516

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

Rep

orte

d R

eser

vesG

b

Kjell Aleklett

Prudhoe Bay

Kjell Aleklett

35 Majnoon Iraq 1977 6.0036 Karamay Complex China 1955 5.9437 East Texas USA 1930 5.9138 Umm Shaif Abu Dhabi 1958 5.5039 Panshan China 1970 5.4040 Sabriya Kuwait 1957 5.30

Kjell Aleklett

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Production of oil from “the rest of the world”

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FSU

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Russia

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Oil Discovery and Production of Kazakhstan

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Year

Prod

uctio

n [G

b]

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

9.0

10.5

12.0

Dis

cove

ry [G

b]

ProductionDiscovery

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Expectations on OPEC

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The Oil Triangle

Qatar

Within the Oil Triangle you can find roughly 60 percent of the remaining oil reserves in the world. The 2001 Cheney report, US Energy Policy, says that in year 2020 around 54 to 67 percent of the world producttionof oil needs to come from the Oil Triangle.

Kjell Aleklett

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The Bab Field

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Reported reserves

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

Year

Gb

Saudi ArabiaVenezuelaAbu DhabiIranDhabiIraqKuwaitNeutral zone

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Gb

Neutral zoneKuwaitIraqDhabiIranAbu DhabiVenezuelaSaudi Arabia

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Table of Isotopes

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Berkeley and Seaborg

Kjell Aleklett

Adnan Shihab-Eldin

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Kuwait (+1/2 NZ) oil+condensate cumulative discovery & cumulative production

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010year

discoveryproductionremaining reserves

Jean Laherrere 2002

Greater Burgan

Kjell Aleklett

Kuwait oil reserves from political and technical sources

50

60

70

80

90

100

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010year

technical data

OPEC

OGJ = BP

WO

Jean Laherrere March 2003

Kjell Aleklett

Transparency For the energy security of the world there is two options:

1. Like Norway, UK and USA the countries in OPEC must make data available for a third party judgment. The independent Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group is willing to do such an analysis.

2. We must lower the reserves in the Middle East by 200.000 billion barrels, two bottles of Champagne. ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, has made this reduction.

Kjell Aleklett

The future

Kjell Aleklett

The world needs new oil

fieldsExxonMobil:

In other words, by 2015, we will

need to find, develop and produce a

volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being

produced today.

Kjell Aleklett

New production and depletion per year of 80 mbpd

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Other

Asia

Unconventional

FSU

Deep Offshore

Middle East

Of which OPEC

From: Petroleum Review March 2005; company web sites, OIES.

6 % depletion

5 % depletion

4 % depletion

3 % depletion

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 2

Kjell Aleklett

A Producer’s Perspective on the Oil Industry

London 2004

Sadad I. Al-Husseini

Dhahran, Saudi Arabia

Kjell Aleklett

2025201520051995

120 mm b/d

80 mm b/d

100 mm b/d

60 mm b/d

40 mm b/d

+ 38.6 mmbd82 +/-

120.6Reservoir capabilitydeclines: the leaking bucket syndrome

3-5 % capabilitydecline rateExxonMobil: 4-6 %

20 mm b/d

97.6 mmbd = 10 Saudi Arabias by 2025

- 59 mmbd97.6mmbd

2% increase

Kjell Aleklett

Kjell Aleklett

The first field in the North Sea was discovered in year 1969. The oil production peaked 30 years later with a maximum production of 6 mbpd. Is it possible to make new discoveries within 25 years that will yield a production of 25 mbpd in year 2030?

Kjell Aleklett

Kjell Aleklett

Some thoughtsPrice: The oil price is set in trades in New York and London

Reserves: 75 percent of remaining oil reserves can be found in Muslim countries. We must find ways to collaborate.

Production: New reserves will in the future be less important then decline in existing oil fields.

Future: We must save oil and when it is possible use renewable options.

Kjell Aleklett

Kjell Aleklett

WWW.PEAKOIL.NET

Executive board:President: Kjell Aleklett, Professor, Uppsala University, Sweden,

Honorary chairman: Colin Campbell, Dr, Cork, IrelandSecretary: Roger W. Bentley, Dr, Reading University, UK,

Member: Rui Rosa, Professor, University of Evora, Portugal

ASPO is a network of scientists, affiliated with European institutions and universities, having an interest in determining the date and impact of the peak and decline of the

world's production of oil and gas, due to resource constraints.

Mission of ASPO:1. Define and evaluate the world's endowment of oil and gas;

2. Model depletion, taking due account of demand, economics, technology and politics;3. Raise awareness of the serious consequences for Mankind.

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