Kjell Aleklett

Kjell AleklettUppsala University, Sweden

Kyoto, Japan, November 2006

Kjell Aleklett

Colin Campbell & Jean Laherrère

1998 March

Kjell Aleklett

Victor Hugo

The French author Victor Hugo wrote the last night in his life:

"More powerful than all the armies in the world is an idea whose time has come."

(Il y a une chose plus forte que toutes les armées du monde, c'est une idée dont le temps est venu).

Kjell Aleklett

ASPO – The Association for the Study of Peak Oil&Gas

“Peak oil isn't about the economics of oil but the geology of it.”

"The term Peak Oil refers the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration,

recognizing that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion."

Kjell Aleklett

The oil era started 1859

in Pennsylvania,

USA

Kjell Aleklett

Jack 2 and Himalaya

Jack 2

8.588 meter

8.848 meter

2.100 meter

Kjell Aleklett

When will we run out of oil?

Not in our lifetime as there always will be a tiny production. For the crude oil from the oldest producing

oil well in the world I paid $10.000 per barrel

Kjell Aleklett

An Inconvenient Truth

Kjell Aleklett

“An Inconvenient Truth About Oil”

Kjell Aleklett

Oil and natural gas

are produced in petroleum systems

Kjell Aleklett

There must be places where we can find more oil

Oil endowment - USGS

Kjell Aleklett

Extrapolation into the future

150 billion barrels

Kjell Aleklett

3.3000 Gb in year 2025Forecast by USGS

Kjell Aleklett

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A World Addicted to Oil

"We have a serious problem. America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world,"

Kjell Aleklett

How much energy is bound in oil?

100 ml of oil contains 1 kWh

What can you do with 1 kWh?

You can move a small car to the

top of the Eiffel tower! Filling you car with 50 liter is equal to the energy you need to move 500 cars to top of the Tower. If you drive an SUV for one mile you use oil with the same energy content as pulling the SUV to top of the Eiffel Tower.

Kjell Aleklett

Before the oil age, Sweden 1945

When I was born in 1945, none of the four small farms in my little Swedishvillage used oil for anything. Ten years later, the oil age had arrived: wehad replaced coal with oil for heating, my father had bought a motorcycle,and tractors were seen in the fields.

Kjell Aleklett

Energy in Sweden during 100 years

TWh

From 1945 to 1970, Sweden increased its use of energy by a factor of five, or nearly 7 percent per year for 25 years. This journey into the oil age transformed Sweden from a rather poor country into the third wealthiest country (per capita) in the world. Ninety percent of the energy increase came from oil. Cheap oil made Sweden rich. 

BioCoal

Hydro

Oil and gas

Nuclear

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

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1900 1920 1940 1960 1974 1982 1990 1998

A factor of five

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Olja föder välfärd

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Oil consumption per capita for some developing

countriesPer capita petroleum consumption (index 1980=1)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

China

India

Indonesia

SSA

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Kjell Aleklett

Vol 104 Issue 31  Aug 21, 2006

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Vol 104 Issue 31  Aug 21, 2006

Kjell Aleklett

Kjell Aleklett

Energy consumption in USA

2030: 27,7 mbpd

2004: 20,7 mbpd

Increase: 7,0 mbpd

Kjell Aleklett

Energy production in USA

2030: 4,6 mbpd

2004: 5,4 mbpd

Decline: 0,8 mbpd

Kjell Aleklett

Numbers for ChinaPercentage of global population: 21%,

Percentage of global oil production: 4,5 %, 3,6 Mbpd

Percentage of global oil consumption: 8,5%, 7,0 Mbpd

Average increase in GDP last 5 years: 8 – 10 %

Average increase in oil consumption last 5 years: 8 %

China will reach Peak Oil production in 2009

Question:

Is it OK that China consume 21% of the global oil production, today 18 mbpd but in year 2030 25 mbpd?

Kjell Aleklett

China: Discovery and Production

Production will start to decline within 5 years

Oil Discovery and Production of China

0,00

0,20

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0,80

1,00

1,20

1,40

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

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Pro

du

cti

on

[G

b]

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8,0

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14,0

Dis

co

very [

Gb

]

Production

Discovery

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Asia Pacific Dependency of Middle East Oil

Data presented at the APERC Energy Outlook Workshop, 16 September 2004, Tokyo, Japan, by Yoshiki Ogawa

14 mbpd

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Kjell Aleklett

New discoveries from 1995 till 2025 is 100 billion barrels found and 100 billion barrels expected to be found. USGS mean prediction for the same time period is 649 billion barrels.

Kjell Aleklett

Kjell Aleklett

US Lower 48

US Lower 48: annual oil "mean" discovery & production with Hubbert discovery model

0

1

2

3

4

5

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

year

discovery smooth 5 yrmodel Hubbert disc.productionHubbert disc. shift 35 yr

deepwater

Jean Laherrère Jan. 2003

depression

oil price

proration

35 years

Kjell Aleklett

Drill for oil when the price is right!

Kjell Aleklett

USA oil wells

Kjell Aleklett

US Lower 48

US Lower 48: annual oil "mean" discovery & production with Hubbert discovery model

0

1

2

3

4

5

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

year

discovery smooth 5 yrmodel Hubbert disc.productionHubbert disc. shift 35 yr

deepwater

Jean Laherrère Jan. 2003

depression

oil price

proration

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Jeroen van der Veer

January 24 2006

My view is that “easy” oil has probably passed its peak.

…..

.. But we have deep water and oil sand.

Kjell Aleklett

Harry Longwell, ExxonMobil

"Contrary to some widely held beliefs, discovered volumes, over a long period of time, have not been closely related to price fluctuations. They have been driven more by the evolution of technology and geopolitical developments that improve access."  - ExxonMobil Executive Vice President, Harry Longwell

Kjell Aleklett

Deepwater Discoveries and the Largest Field per Region

•

Roncador (Brazil) 2.6 Gb Dalia (Angola) 0.94 Gb

Bonga (Nigeria) 1.0 Gb

Thunder Horse (US GoM) 1.0 Gb

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Mil

lio

n B

arre

ls

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US

Do

llar

per

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rel

Other AfricaAsia-PacificUS Gulf of MexicoNigeriaAngolaBrazilNominell Price

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Deepwater Production Forecast

•

Deepwater Production

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

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8,000,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Dai

ly P

rod

uct

ion

(b

pd

)Other Africa

Asia-Pacific

US Gulf of Mexico

Nigeria

Angola

Brazil Jack???

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Vol 104 Issue 31  Aug 21, 2006

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The Middle East

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Saudi Arabia

Official numbers:

Oil in place: 720 billion barrels

Produced so far: 105 bb, 15%

Reserves to produce: 260 bb, 36%

Recovery factor: 15%+36%=51%

Oil in place to find: 200 bb

Kjell Aleklett

Recovery of the world

Saudi recovery factor

Kjell Aleklett

Saudi Arabia

Oil in place: 720 billion barrels

Produced so far: 105 bb, 15%

Reserves with 29% IOR: 104 bb

Reserves with 38% IOR: 169 bb

Years of world consumption: ~4 to 5

Kjell Aleklett

Total 115 bb in 2033

Kjell Aleklett

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Russia

Kjell Aleklett

Oil Discovery and Production of Russia

0.0

1.0

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25

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ry [G

b]

Production

Discovery

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Found and produced oil in Norway

0.0

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

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du

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year

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]

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1.8

3.6

5.4

7.2

Dis

co

very

per

year

[Gb

]

Discovery

Hubbert Curve of Discovery

Production

Production Forecast

The time between tops is 27 years

Kjell Aleklett

Norway official numbersOljeproduksjon, Norsk kontinentalsokkel

Alle ressurskategorier

0

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120

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

MS

m3

Uoppdagede ressurserRessurser i funnRessurser i feltReserverFaktisk

Produsert per 31.12.2005: 3,0 GSm3Gjenværende reserver: 1,2 GSm3Ressurser i felt: 0,4 GSm3Ressurser i funn: 0,1 GSm3Uoppdagede ressurser: 1,2 GSm3

M:\Lag\D-RessAnalyse\EKM\Totalprod.xls

Kjell Aleklett

These countries can not export an extra 30 million

barrels per day!

Kjell Aleklett

Vol 104 Issue 31  Aug 21, 2006

Kjell Aleklett

Kjell Aleklett

The world needs new oil fields

ExxonMobil:

In other words, by 2015, we will

need to find, develop and produce a

volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being

produced today.

Kjell Aleklett

A Producer’s Perspective on the Oil Industry

London 2004

Sadad I. Al-Husseini

Dhahran, Saudi Arabia

Kjell Aleklett

2025201520051995

120 mm b/d

80 mm b/d

100 mm b/d

60 mm b/d

40 mm b/d

+ 38.6 mmbd82 +/-

120.6Reservoir capabilitydeclines: the leaking bucket syndrome

3-5 % capabilitydecline rateExxonMobil: 4-6 %

20 mm b/d

97.6 mmbd = 10 Saudi Arabias by 2025

- 59 mmbd97.6mmbd

2% increase

Kjell Aleklett

Kjell Aleklett

The first field in the North Sea was discovered in year 1969. The oil production peaked 30 years later with a maximum production of 6 mbpd. Is it possible to make new discoveries within 25 years that will yield a production of 25 mbpd in year 2030?

Kjell Aleklett

Jeroen van der Veer

January 24 2006

My view is that “easy” oil has probably passed its peak.

…..

.. But we have deep water and oil sand.

Kjell Aleklett

Oil sand and crude oil

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300B

illio

n B

bls

Saudi Arabia

IranIraqUnited Arab EmiratesKuwaitVenezualaRussiaLibyaNigeriaU.S.Canada´s Oil Sands

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Oil from oil sand i Canada, (Energy Policy, in print)

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Year

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r D

ay

Total Mining, Crash Program Total In Situ, Crash Program

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Production of Oil from Canada, the North Sea and Oil Sand in

Canada

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

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Conventional Oil Production, Canada + The North Sea Canadian Oil Sands, Crash Program Production

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Kjell Aleklett

Statement by the Swedish Prime Minister Göran Persson

“The oil might be in decline? We have someone here in Uppsala named Aleklett that claims that.”

The Swedish government has appoint a commission that just has suggested what to do to make Sweden less dependent on oil by 2020.

Kjell Aleklett

Statements on oil by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

WWW.KVA.SE

Kjell Aleklett

Phasing out dependency on oil in Sweden

The Commission on Oil Independence sees five strong reasons for phasing out Sweden’s dependency on oil:

1. We will reduce Sweden’s climate impact.

2. We will secure Sweden’s supply of energy in the long term.

3. We can be a leading nation in the development of new technology for sustainable use of energy and more efficient use of energy.

4. We will strengthen our international economic competitiveness.

5. We will use and develop the energy resources from forest and fields, “Sweden’s green gold”.

Kjell Aleklett

The commission proposes the following national objectives

for more efficient use of energy and reduce

dependence on oil by 2020   Swedish society as a whole should be able to make 20 per cent more efficient use of energy by 2020 and thereby at the same time create intensified, cost-efficient prosperity that is sustainable in the long term.

   By 2020 in principle no oil should be used for heating residential and commercial buildings.

   Road transport, including transport in agricultural, forestry, fisheries, and building sectors, should reduce use of petrol and diesel by 40-50 per cent by 2020.

   Industry should reduce its use of oil by 25-40 per cent by2020.

Kjell Aleklett

Energy is running the world

Money is not running the world, money is used to buy energy

NYMEX

Kjell Aleklett

My grandchildren Olivia and Olof will face Peak Oil before they are 20 years

old

Kjell Aleklett

God to Noah: Build the Ark now as it is hard to do it under the water.

Kjell Aleklett