NERIES JRA3 Developing Rapid Shake-map and Loss Estimation ... · Can Zulfikar, Yaver Kamer and...

Regional Earthquake

Shaking and Loss

AssessmentDr.Karin Sesetyan, Dr. Mine B. Demircioglu, Dr. Can Zulfikar, Yaver Kamer

and Prof. Dr. Mustafa Erdik

Bogazici University, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey

Cost Action C26 International Conference, 16-18 September 2010

NERIES –JRA3Developing Rapid Shake-map and Loss Estimation Capability

ELER - EU NERIES Project

(http://www.neries-eu.org/)

The JRA 3 working group aims for rapid earthquake loss estimation (damages and casualties) throughout the Euro-Med region.

JRA 3 Working Group:KOERI,Imperial College, NORSAR, EMSC, ITSAK, DPC-SSN, ICC, IST

Task-1 Evaluation of the existing tools on urban earthquake loss assessment (Imperial College)

Task-2 Development of “Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine”Task-2a Earthquake Shaking estimation (NORSAR)Task-2b Earthquake Vulnerability (KOERI)

Task-3 Development of the ELER Software (KOERI)

Task-4 ELER Utilization/Applications (EMSC)

HAZARD Module(at reference soil)

Physical Losses and Casualties

ELER

Mapping and Reporting

External Hazard

Data

Site Response

Module

Earthquake Source Parameters

Tectonic Entities

Vs30 Distribution

SHAKEMAP

External Site Response

DataUSGS ShakeMap

Module

Online Accelerometric

Data

Vulnerability Modules (Intensity and Spectral Displacement

Based)

User Supplied Vulnerability Modules

Default Physical and Social Inventory Data

User Supplied Physical and Social Inventory Data

HAZARD Module(at reference soil)HAZARD Module(at reference soil)



ELERELER



External Hazard

Data

External Hazard

Data

Site Response

Module

Site Response

Module


Tectonic Entities


Tectonic Entities

Vs30 DistributionVs30 Distribution

SHAKEMAP SHAKEMAP


Data


DataUSGS ShakeMap

ModuleUSGS ShakeMap

Module


Data


Data


Based)


Based)



Default Physical and Social Inventory DataDefault Physical and Social Inventory Data

User Supplied Physical and Social Inventory DataUser Supplied Physical

and Social Inventory Data

Overview of

ELER

Software

Components

LOSS MODULE

HAZARD MODULE

Levels of Loss Assessment Analysis

Crude Estimations

of Casualties

Regional Scale Damage and

CasualtyAssessment

Urban Scale Damage and

CasualtyAssessment

Ground Motion Methodology Modified USGS Shake-map algorithm

Building Damage Estimation Methodologies Intensity Based Vulnerability (Level 1)

Macroseismic method implicitly defined by EMS-98 scale (Giovinazzi S., 2005)

Spectral Displacement- Based Vulnerability (Level 2)Capacity Spectrum Method (CSM)Modified Acceleration – Displacement Response Spectrum

Method (MADRS)Reduction Factor MethodCoefficient Method

Casualty Estimation methodology Samardjieva & Badal (2002) – Level 0 Intensity based fatality rates – Level 0 KOERI (with ATC-13) – Level 1 HAZUS99 – Level 2 HAZUS-MH – Level 2

Methodologies used in ELER Software

Since MATLAB is a cross-platform programming language ELER can run

on the following operating systems without any code modification:

• Windows (x64)

• Linux (x86-64)

• Mac OS X

• Solaris 64

Once compiled MATLAB programs can run without a licensed MATLAB

software.

User interface

ELER can be used both from a GUI and command line. The GUI enables

even the inexperienced user to obtain results fast. The command line

interface can be used for automated, scheduled or event triggered runs.

Platform independency

Input file formats

XML Files: (.xml)ShakeMap formatted XML station list filesfor ground motion estimation input

Text Files: (.txt, .xy) Fault coordinates, fault databases, sitecondition maps in xyz format

Shape Files: (.shp) Building inventories

MATLAB files: (.mat) Matrix and reference vectors for sitecondition maps, ground motion predictionmodels and various coefficient tables(vulnerability-ductility, casualty rates…)

GTOPO30: (.dem) Elevation grid data

DTED: (dt0, dt1): High resolution elevation grid data,population distribution, distribution ofbuilding numbers, slope based Vs-30 grids.

Output file formats

Google Earth KML:(.kml)

Ground motions and observed intensityestimations, casualty and damaged buildingsdistributions can be outputted as contour linesor polygons in KML format.

MATLAB files: (.mat) The distributions stated above can also beoutputted as grids represented by matrices andreference vectors in MATLAB file format.

Graphic files: (.jpg, .gif) The distributions stated above can also beoutputted as graphic files such JPEG or GIF.

Shape Files: (shp) The output of the building damage analysis canbe outputted as a Shape File containing numberof buildings in each damage state or number ofinjuries in each severity level.

Graphical User Interface of ELER

Earthquake Hazard

Earthquake Hazard Calculation Routine


Earthquake Hazard

Intensity distribution (ShakeMap) - 1999 Kocaeli earthquake

Observed Intensity Distribution

PGA/PGV-Intensity Correlations

Wald et al. (1999)

Regional Intensity Attenuation

Relationship


Earthquake Hazard

Intensity as Polygons Intensity as Lines

KML Outputs

Verification with USGS ShakeMap

Only Phantom Stations

Phantom and Actual Stations

Phantom and Actual Stations with Site

correction

ELER ShakeMap

With strong motion data and

site correction

September 29, 2004

Parkfield Earthquake, M5.0

Depth : 11.5km

L'Aquila Earthquake

Magnitude: Mw 6.3

Coordinates

Latitude: 42.38o N

Longitude:13.32o E

Depth: 2 km

Peak ground acceleration distribution

map (%g)

Shaking intensity map (MMI)

• Level 0 (Intensity based

casualty assessment)

Grid-based analysis

Estimations in

regional scale

Based on gridded

Landscan population

data

Only earthquake

parameters are

required from the

user

Samardjieva & Badal

(2002) and Intesity

vs.fatality rates

Level 0 - Earthquake Loss Estimation

Methodology


Methodology

• Level 1 (Intensity based building damage and casualty assessment)

Grid-based analysis

Estimations in regional and/or country scale

Basic input data available for Europe, for crude estimations of

building damage

User defined building inventories are accomodated

Intensity based structural vulnerabilites from Lagomarsiono and

Giovinazzi (2006) (EMS-98 Vulnerability Classes, Vulnerability

Indices (V, Q), Vulnerability Curves, Damage Probability Matrices)


Methodology

REGIONAL SCALE BUILDING INVENTORY FOR LEVEL-1 ANALYSIS

MARMARA

REGION

INVENTORY

Population

Low-Rise RC Mid-Rise RC

High-Rise RC Masonry

REGIONAL BUILDING INVENTORY GENERATION THROUGH PROXIES

LAND COVER NUMBER OF PEOPLE PER BUILDING

Continuous Urban Fabric 30-40

Discontinuous Urban Fabric 3-5

Nonagricultural Vegetation Areas 3-4

Heteregenous Agricultural Areas 2-4

•Sample areas from Corine database for specific landcover

•Match these areas with Google Earth

•Use image detection software to count the number of buildings in the same area

•Get population count from Corine Database for the same area

•Obtain number of people per building for the specific land cover

•For known land use and population in a grid we can estimate the number of buildings, assign

percentage building types (county and region dependent)

•Verify with actual number of buildings per country (official figures)

•Obtain grid-based number of buildings in different structural types from country-based statistics

REGIONAL BUILDING INVENTORY GENERATION THROUGH PROXIES

Level 1 - Methodology based on Vulnerability Indices

3.2

1.1325.6tanh15.2 I

d

VI

Typology Description Min Mean Max

M1 Stone Masonry Bearing Walls made of...

M1.1 Rubble stone, fieldstone 0.62 0.873 1.02

M1.2 Simple stone 0.46 0.74 1.02

M1.3 Massive stone 0.3 0.616 0.86

M2 Adobe 0.62 0.84 1.02

M3 Unreinforced masonry Bearing walls with...

M3.1 Masonry with Wooden slabs 0.46 0.74 1.02

M3.2 Masonry vaults 0.46 0.776 1.02

M3.3 Composite steel and masonry slabs 0.46 0.704 1.02

M3.4 Reinforced concrete slabs 0.3 0.616 0.86

M4 Reinforced or confined masonry walls 0.14 0.451 0.7

M5 Overall strengthened 0.3 0.694 1.02

RC1 Concrete Moment Frames -0.02 0.442 1.02

RC2 Concrete shear walls -0.02 0.386 0.86

RC3Concrete frames with unreinforced masonry infill

walls

RC3.1 Regularly infilled walls -0.02 0.402 0.98

RC3.2 Irregularly infilled walls 0.06 0.522 1.02

RC4 RC Dual systems (RC frame and wall) -0.02 0.386 0.86

RC5 Precast Concrete Tilt-Up Walls 0.14 0.384 0.7

RC6 Precast C. Frames, C. shear walls 0.3 0.544 0.86

S1 Steel Moment Frames -0.02 0.363 0.86

S2 Steel braced Frames -0.02 0.287 0.7

S3 Steel frame+unreinf. mas. infill walls 0.14 0.484 0.86

S4 Steel frame+cast-in-place shear walls -0.02 0.224 0.54

S5 Steel and RC composite system -0.02 0.402 1.02

W Wood structures 0.14 0.447 0.86

Vulnerability Index

RISK-UE Building Typology Matrix

Giovinazzi S.,(2005)

European building typology

Level 1 - Methodology based on EMS98 Vulnerability Classes

Level 1 – Casualty Estimation

Koeri,2002

Coburn&Spence

Summary of Results

KOERI ESCENARIS ELER

D4+D5 40,268 32,148 40,542

D3 76,944 67,034 69,089

Mortal Victims 40,268 17,353 40,542

Hospitalized İnjuries 120,804 121,626

Case Study for ISTANBUL

Level 1

Intensity Based Damage Assessment

Case Study for 2009 M6.3 L’Aquila Earthquake

Level 1 Building Damage and Casualty Estimation

Level 2 - Spectral Displacement-Based Vulnerability and Damage Assessment Methodology

Presented by Dr. Cüneyt Tüzün

Building Damage Estimation

Level 1 (Intensity Based)(No station correction applied)

Attenuation

Buildings in each damage grade based on European Microseismic Scale – EMS,

1998

D3

(Substantial to heavy damage)

D4 + D5

(Damage beyond repair)

Akkar & Bommer 2007 648 63

Boore & Atkinson 2007 582 35

Boore et al. 1997 1112 85

Campbell & Bozorgnia 2007 494 36

D4: Very heavy damage

D5: Destruction

Some Remarks on ELER and Similar

ApplicationsIT Characteristics

• Developed with MATLAB (both computation and plots)

• Easy installation and use in different operating systems

• Modular-Based

• Easy incorporation of user-defined methods (e.g. attenuation, vulnerabilities)

Improvements in Shake Mapping

• Different techniques (FAS, local intensity attenuation relationships)

• Bias adjustment also at surface

Loss Assessment

• Robust loss estimation methodology

• Both European and HAZUS Building Taxonomies

• Incorporation of different levels of inventory sophistication

• Implementation of several well-tested analytical methods

• Both intensity and spectral displacement-based methods

Applications with ELER

Earthquake loss assessments for the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality have been conducted with ELER

Earthquake risk assessment for the buried pipelines of the Istanbul Natural Gas Network will be conducted with ELER

ELER was selected as one of the tools to be tested in GEM, Los Angeles building inventory is being analyzed under Level 2 of ELER

Regional and urban scale risk assessments within EMME (Earthquake Model of Middle East) Project will be conducted with ELER

Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System will also be modified to adopt the analysis tools developed in ELER

Publications

RAPID EARTHQUAKE HAZARD and LOSS ASSESSMENT for EURO-MEDITERRANEAN REGIONMustafa Erdik, Karin Sesetyan, Mine Demircioglu, Ufuk Hancilar, Can

Zulfikar, Eser Durukal, Yaver Kamer, Cem Yenidogan, Cuneyt Tuzun, Zehra Cagnan, Ebru Harmandar

Acta Geophysica, 2010

RAPID EARTHQUAKE LOSS ASSESSMENT AFTER DAMAGING EARTHQUAKESM.Erdik, K.Şeşetyan, M.B.Demircioğlu, U.Hancılar, C.ZülfikarSoil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 2010

ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE RAPID RESPONSE SYSTEM: METHODS AND PRACTICESKarin Sesetyan, Can Zulfikar, Mine Demircioglu, Ufuk Hancilar, Yaver Kamer

and Mustafa ErdikSoil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 2010

URBAN EARTHQUAKE LOSS ASSESSMENT Ufuk Hancılar , Cüneyt Tüzün, Cem Yenidoğan, Mustafa Erdik. (submitted to NHESS,)

THANK YOU

FOR

YOUR ATTENTION

ftp://www.orfeus-eu.org/pub/software/ELER/ELER_V3/

NERIES JRA3 Developing Rapid Shake-map and Loss Estimation ... · Can Zulfikar, Yaver Kamer and...

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