National Drought Management Authority KILIFI COUNTY · National Drought Management Authority ......

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EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR MAY 2015

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National Drought Management Authority

KILIFI COUNTY

Current Drought Risk

Low Medium High

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MAY EARLY WARNING PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification

Livelihood Zone Stage Trend

Mixed farming Alert improving

Livestock/Ranching Alert Improving

Cash Cropping/Dairy Alert Improving

Food Cropping Alert Improving

COUNTY Alert improving

Biophysical Indicators Value Normal

Average Rainfall 101 96

SPI-3month 0.92 -0.25 to 0.25

VCI-3month 48.14 35-50

State of Water Sources 5 5-6

Production indicators Value Normal

Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal

Livestock Body Conditions 4-5 7-8

Milk Production ltr/hh/day 1.3 >1.3

Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death

Access Indicators Value Normal

Terms of Trade (ToT) 75 43.6

Milk Consumption (% range) 58% >58%

Average Water for Households (Km) 1.7 3.0

Average Grazing-Water point

Distance for livestock (Km)

3.3 5.1

Utilization indicators Value Normal

MUAC (%) 4.4 8.2

Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.4 1.3

Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators

There was an increase in average rainfall amount received in May compared to the previous month.

Water availability was normal since water pans had recorded recharge. Water access was normal in May.

In May 2015, Kilifi County recorded a 3 month SPI of 0.92 an indication that the county was classified as having no drought while 3 month VCI was 48.14, this is an indication that the county was in normal condition in terms of vegetation but Kaloleni and Malindi sub counties were in moderate drought.

Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)

On average livestock body condition was good in the month under review.

On average pasture quality and quantity was good across all livelihood zones though there are some pockets within livelihood zones recording poor pasture regeneration as at end of May.

The main water sources for domestic use across all livelihood zones in the month of May were pans/dams (50%), pipeline (32%), boreholes (7%) natural ponds and natural rivers at 11%.

Average milk production and consumption at household level in the county recorded an increase.

Average goat remained stable in May compared to the previous month but much higher compared to long term mean while cattle prices recorded a decrease of 11% compared to April prices.

Average maize prices remained stable compared to the previous month, while average price recorded some increase.

Average percentage of children under five at risk of malnutrition remained stable in May at 4.4 percent.

Insignificant change in Coping Strategy Index (CSI) was recorded in May compared to the previous month.

Currently drought risks are at medium risk tending to low following significant amount rainfall recorded in May. On average pasture condition is good, minimal stress in water access. Though the delay in rainfall season, maize crop condition as the main staple planted for the season is good and at different development stages.

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A. BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS 1. MEASURING DROUGHT HAZARD 1.1 METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

LTM (2010-2014) 37.4 7.6 21.3 44.8 96.1 71.1 27.7 24.7 25.0 62.5 70.4 82.0

YEAR 2015 34.6 2.0 4.9 64.4 100.9

0.0

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60.0

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80.0

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110.0

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AVERAGE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL RECEIVED IN KILIFI COUNTY IN COMPARISON TO THE LONG TERM MEAN

Figure 1a: Average rainfall in mm recorded in 12 sentinels across Kilifi County

The average amount of rainfall received across the county increased significantly from 64.4 mm recorded in April to 100.9 mm in the month under review.

Spatial distribution of the received rainfall was even as all the livelihood zones experienced enhanced rainfall as compared to the previous month. The mixed farming and food cropping zones recorded the highest average rainfall amount of 113 mm each, while the cash cropping/dairy zone and ranching/livestock farming received on average 99 mm of rainfall and 83 mm respectively during the month of May.

The average rainfall amount received in May was 5% higher than long term mean

Figure 1a: Source: Msabaha Agrometeorological Station in Kilifi County

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1.1.2 Temporal distribution

Temporal distribution in May was poor as in some areas rains disappeared for almost three weeks.

On average the zones experienced 15-20 rainy days during the month of May. 1.1.3 STANDADIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) SPI is a normalized index representing the probability of occurrence of an observed rainfall amount

when compared with the rainfall climatology at a certain geographical location over a long-term

reference period.

Figure2: 3month Vegetation Condition Index: [Source: Boku University Austria] In May 2015, Kilifi county recorded a 3month SPI of 0.92 an indication that the county was classified as having no drought. This was an improvement when compared to the previous month. Ganze and Magarini sub counties recorded the lowest 3month SPI of 0.98 and 0.81 respectively. Though Malindi and Kaloleni recorded high 3month SPI of 1.02 and 1,23 respectively, it was get to impact on vegetation as the two sub counties recorded the lowest 3month Vegetation Condition Index. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 Natural Vegetation Condition-Field Observation 1.2.1.1 Pasture

On average pasture quality remained good across all livelihood zones due to enhanced rainfall in the month under review, despite some pockets recording poor pasture regeneration.

On average the quantity of pasture available is sufficient to last for more than three months across all livelihood zones.

Pasture quality and quantity condition currently is normal during this time of the year. 1.2.1.2 Browse

Color SPI Values Rainfall Category

> +1.5 or more Wet

0 to +1.5 No drought

-0.1 to -0.99 Moderate drought

-1 to -1.99 Severe drought

<-2 and less Extreme drought

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On average browse condition was good across all livelihood zones occasioned by the rains that have been received across the county

Browse in the cash cropping/dairy zone improved significantly due to increased and evenly distributed rainfall experienced in the zone.

The available browse is expected to last till the next season of the rainfall season

Pasture quality and quantity condition currently is normal during this time of the year.

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1.2.1.3 Vegetation Condition Index [VCI] The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) compares the current NDVI to the range of values observed in the same period in previous years.

Figure3: 3month Vegetation Condition Index graphs and Kilifi, Kaloleni and Malindi matrices [Source: Boku University -Austria]

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In May 2015, Kilifi county recorded a 3 month VCI of 48.14, this is an indication that the county was in normal condition in terms of vegetation. Kaloleni Sub County recorded the lowest 3 month VCI of 27.43 and Malindi Sub County with 32.91 while Rabai , Magarini, Kilifi North and Kilifi South, Ganze Sub Counties recorded 52, 53.98, 39.38, 48.71, 44.72 respectively. Kaloleni and Malindi Sub counties are in moderate drought in terms of 3 month VCI as shown in the matrices above.

1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT

1.3.1 Water Resource

50%

7%

4%

32%

7%

Pie chart of water sources used by households in kilifi county

Pans & Dams

Boreholes

Natural Ponds

Pipeline

Natural Rivers

Figure 4: Water sources for households in Kilifi County

The main water sources for domestic use across all livelihood zones in the month of May were pans/dams (50%), pipeline (32%), boreholes (7%) natural ponds and natural rivers at 11%.

The percentage of households using pans and other ground water bodies increased by 3 percent in May as compared to the previous month due to ongoing rainfall experienced across the county which has recorded recharge of most water pans which had dried up.

The EW phase classification index for state of water sources in the county during the month under review was 5, indicating normalcy in availability of water.

B. DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Migration Patterns

No migration of livestock was observed across all the livelihood zones

2.1.2 Livestock body condition

The body condition of cattle and shoats was good across all livelihood zones due to availability of pasture and water at considerably shorter distances.

On average, Livestock body condition remained good across the county with a score of 6 (Normal).

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2.1.3 Livestock diseases

No livestock notifiable disease(s) was/were recorded in May across all the livelihood zones.

New Castle Disease - endemic across all livelihood zones. 2.1.4 Milk production

Average milk production in the county increased by 30 percent in the month under review from 1litre per household per day in the month of April to 1.3 litres per household per day recorded in the month of May.

The increase in milk production is as a result of availability of pasture and significant decrease in average distance to water points from grazing areas.

2.2 Rain fed crop production. 2.2.1. Stage and condition of crops

Most areas in the mixed farming zone and some parts in the livestock farming zone maize crop was at the flowering stage while in food cropping, and cash cropping farmers were doing first weeding.

2.2.2. Crop harvest

Mango harvesting along the coastal belt.

Minimal cassava harvesting ongoing for most farmers across all livelihood zones.

Coconut harvesting in cash cropping/dairy zone and along the coastal belt. C. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.0 Livestock marketing 3.1 Livestock terms of trade

The terms of trade gives an indication of the staple food purchasing power of livestock keepers by exchange with one goat.

Figure 5: Terms of Trade for the livestock keepers

The terms of trade improved by 3 percent from 73 kilograms of maize for one goat recorded in April to 75 kilograms for every one goat sold in the month of May.

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The terms of trade improved due to good body conditions for goats occasioned by availability of browse.

The terms of trade for the month was 72 percent above normal TOT in the same month of the year.

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3.1.1 Cattle Prices


LTM (2010-2014) 12598 15350 12924 13633 11910 12968 14723 13957 13596 13655 12201 14330

YEAR 2015 11330 12500 11750 13000 10000

0

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8000

12000

16000

20000

PR

ICE

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AVERAGE CATTLE PRICE IN KILIFI COUNTY IN COMPARISON TO THE LONG TERM MEAN

Figure 6: Average cattle price at household level in Kilifi County.

Average cattle price decreased by 11 percent from Ksh13,000 in the month of April to Ksh10,000 in the month under review, the price decrease was due the size of cattle sold.

Cattle sales were recorded only in the ranching/livestock keeping zone with an average of Ksh10,000

The average price for the month was 5 percent lower than the long term mean at this time of the year.

3.1.2 Goat Prices


LTM (2010-2014) 1911 1837 1796 1776 1635 1745 1743 1888 1877 1883 1998 2197

YEAR 2015 2502 1400 2250 2690 2700

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2000

3000

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AVERAGE GOAT PRICE IN THE COUNTY IN COMPARISON TO THE LONG TERM MEAN PRICE

Figure 7: Average goat price at market level in Kilifi County.

The average market price of a medium sized goat remained stably high at Ksh2,700 in the month of May in compared to the previous month.

The stability was due to good body condition and good breed in the livestock farming /ranching zone where most of the goat sales was recorded. In addition most livestock keepers were reluctant to dispose goats at this time when the season is good thus decreased supply in the market.

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The mixed farming zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh4,000 while food cropping zone recorded the least price at Ksh2,400

The average goat price for in the current month was 55 percent higher than the county long term mean price.

3.1.3 Milk Prices

The average price of unprocessed milk remained stable in the month of May at Ksh34 per litre in comparison to the previous month when the average milk price per litre was Kshs35.

Highest average price of unprocessed milk was observed in the livestock farming zone at Ksh35 per litre while the lowest average price was recorded in the mixed farming zone at Ksh32 per litre.

3.3 Prices of cereals and other food products 3.3.1 Household price of maize

Figure 8: Average maize price and in Kilifi County.

Average maize price per kilogram remained stable in May at Ksh36 per kilogram as compared to the average price recorded in the previous month.

The stability was occasioned by low demand for maize and most households opted for the purchase of sifted maize meal which was retailing at ksh55 per kilogram.

The observed average price was 5 percent lower than the county long term mean at this month of the year.

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3.3.2. Market Price of Beans

Figure 9: Average beans price in Kilifi County.

Average beans price per kilogram increased by 5 percent in the month under review from ksh89 recorded in April to Ksh93 recorded in the month of May, the high average price was due high demand for maize following depletion of other pulses like green grams and cow peas at household level.

The livestock farming zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh96 per kilogram while the cash cropping/dairy zone posted the lowest average price of Ksh90 per kilogram.

The average beans price is expected to remain stably high till the long rains harvest of pulses.

The average price recorded in May was 9 percent higher than the county long term mean price at this time of the year.

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3.4. Access to food and water 3.4.1 Household Income

57%

12%

14%

9% 5%

3%

Main Income sources for selected households in Kilifi County

Casual Labour

Remittances

Sale of Charcoal

Petty Trade

Formal Employment

Sale of Livestock/Livestock Products

Figure 10: Proportion of households that engaged in various income generating activities.

Main sources of income for the period under review were casual labour, sales of charcoal, petty trade, remittances, and formal employment.

Households that relied on casual labour slightly increased in May as compared to the previous month due to the increased agricultural activities at this time when a larger percentage of farmers are engaging in weeding and land preparation.

The average daily wage decreased further by 3% from Ksh180 to Ksh174. The decrease was as a result of high demand for casual labour.

The highest wage was recorded in cash cropping/dairy zone with an average of Ksh 230 while the lowest was recorded in ranching zone with an average of Ksh130.

3.4.2 Availability of milk for household consumption

Availability of milk for consumption at households increased by 60 percent from 0.45 litres per household per day recorded in the month of April to 0.75 litres per household per day in the current month.

On average, 58 percent of the total milk produced in the county in May was consumed at household level while 42 percent was sold for purchase of other households’ needs.

The milk consumed at households was mainly in form of tea and also as sour milk taken with ugali

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3.4.3 Availability and utilization of water 3.4.4 Household access and utilization of water

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC


YEAR 2015 3.1 2.5 2.9 2.0 1.7

LTM (2010-2014) 2.3 2.9 3.3 3.0 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.4 3.6 2.5 1.7

AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD RETURN DISTANCE TO WATER SOURCES IN KILIFI COUNTY

Figure 11: Household average return distance to water points

The average return distance to water sources for households decreased further in the month under review from 2km in April to 1.7 km recorded in the month of May.

The longest average return distance was recorded in the food cropping zone and mixed farming zones with an average of 2.4 km each while the shortest average distance was recorded in the cash cropping/dairy zone with 0.3 km.

The decreasing trend in average return distance was normal at this time of the long rain season and is expected to decline further as more water pans recharge.

The average return distance to water points for households during the month was 15 percent lower than the long term mean distance at this of the year.

3.4.5 Livestock access to water 3.4.6 Distance from grazing area to Water Sources

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

JAN

MAR

MAY

JUL

SEP

NOV

CURRENT AND LONG TERM DISTANCE TREKKED IN KILOMETERS


YEAR 2015 4.5 4.8 5.9 4.5 3.3

LTM (2010-2014) 4.5 4.9 5.8 5.1 3.7 3.8 4.6 5.6 6.7 6.5 4.6 3.2

AVERAGE LIVESTOCK RETURN DISTANCE TO WATER POINTS FROM GRAZING AREA IN KILIFI COUNTY

Figure 12: Average return distance to water points from grazing area for livestock.

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The average return distance to grazing areas decreased in the month under review from 4.5km in April to 3.3 km recorded in the month of May as livestock relied on water from water pans, natural rivers and ponds closer to the grazing areas.

The longest average return grazing distance was recorded in the mixed farming zone with an average of 3.7 km while the shortest distances were trekked in the ranching zone with 0.3 km.

The decreasing trend in average return distance in between march and May is normal at this time of the long rain season.

The average return distance to grazing areas from water points during the month was 11 percent lower than the long term mean distance at this time of the year.

D. UTILIZATION INDICATORS 4.1 Health and Nutritional Status 4.1.1 Mid Upper Arm Circumference [MUAC]

Figure 13: Proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC< 135mm) in Kilifi County [n=1560]

Average percentage of children under five at risk of malnutrition remained stable in May at 4.4 percent and this may be attributed to continued food insecurity at households and low diet diversification.

This average percentage recorded in May was 46 percent lower than the long term mean, some sentinel sites recorded higher percentages of children at risk of malnutrition.

The ranching/livestock farming zone (Jila sentinel site) and food cropping zone (Sosodemu sentinel site), recorded high percentages of children under five years at risk of malnutrition at 8.2%, and 7.1% respectively.

4.1.2 Health

On average 12 percent of total children sampled [1,560] from the households were reported to have fallen sick in the month of April with a higher percentage recording diarrhea.

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Cases of malaria and upper respiratory tract infections and eye infections were reported at households.

Cholera outbreak recorded in the county, 9 cases reported of which 5 cases had been confirmed and 1 death recorded from the confirmed cases as at June 4th.

4.2 Coping Strategies 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index


LTM (2010-2014) 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6

YEAR 2015 2.1 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3

0.0

1.0

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CS

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COPING STRATEGY INDEX FOR HOUSEHOLDS IN KILIFI COUNTY

Figure 14: Coping Strategy Index for Kilifi County

Insignificant change in Coping Strategy Index (CSI) was recorded in May compared to the previous month.

Households continued to benefit with reduced commodity prices such as maize meal, kerosene, milk and vegetables.

Common coping mechanisms employed by households during the month under review

were;

Reduction in number and meal rations. Opting for less preferred or cheaper meals. Borrowing food from friends and relatives. Purchase of food on credit terms.

5.0 Current Intervention Measures.

5.1 Food- aid

Supplementary/ Therapeutic feeding program in health facilities by County Department of Health/WFP/UNICEF and Kenya Red Cross.

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Home Grown School Meals Programme.

5.2 Non-food aid

Distribution of DAP/NPK and CAN fertilizer to targeted beneficiaries (3500 farmers) across the county by County government through Agriculture department.

Distribution of fruit trees seedlings (60,000 cashewnuts and 10,000 mangoes) across the county by County Agriculture department.

Distribution of 250,000 cassava cuttings across the county, 35,000 cuttings per sub county by Agriculture department.

Cash for Asset by GoK/ WFP, World Vision, Kenya Red Cross Society and NDMA in Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai and Magarini Sub Counties.

Promotion on local poultry, cassava, African Bird Eye Chill (ABEC) projects by ASDSP, KENAFF and Equator Kenya.

Support on local poultry, purchase of solar incubators (16) and electric incubators (2) to 18 farmers groups by Plan international.

Support on fodder establishment by the county government, through Department of livestock production.

Community capacity building on rabbit rearing by county department of livestock and plan international.

Cassava Revitalization and Commercialization by CAST/ASDSP/NDMA in Kilifi county

Growth monitoring at village level by community health workers.

Fish farming projects in Ganze sub county by county department of Fisheries.

Promotion on dairy goat (140), galla goats (347), apiculture by Livestock department across in Kilifi County

Support on Irrigation in Magarini and Ganze sub-counties by KRCS, World Vision, Plan

international, Jica and MoA.

Community capacity building on appropriate infant and young child feeding practices

(mother-to-mother support groups) by county department of Health, Plan International and

World Vision.

Surveillance on cholera disease by County Cholera Surveillance team.

Building of livestock sale yards in Tsangatsini in Kaloleni sub county.

Completion of construction of Faraji water pan in Kanagoni.

Procurement of livestock vaccines by the County Government.

6.0 Emerging Issues 6.1 Insecurity/Conflict/Human Displacement

No major cases of insecurity was reported during the month under review.

6.2 Food Security Prognosis

Household food security expected to remain poor till long rains harvest.

Following delay in the long rains, poor temporal distribution, long rains harvest expected to delay.

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Livestock body condition expected to record positive improvement as pasture and browse condition continued recording significant improvement.

Water access for households and livestock use expected to improve further as more water pans and dams recharged.

Milk production expected to continue recording a positive improvement as livestock body condition continued improving.

7.0 Recommendations to the SCSG/CSG/ KFSSG/ County Government

Increase community sensitization on proper hygiene and sanitation as cholera cases have been recorded in Kilifi county Action County department of Health.

Increasing access to water for domestic and livestock. Action County department of Water.

Scale up extension services to farmers across the county for optimal production. Action County Government and Other stakeholders.

Close monitoring of livestock diseases during this long rain season. Action County department of livestock and veterinary services.

Close monitoring of malnutrition status in the county, mothers sensitization on diet diversification for the under-fives. Action County department of Health.

Scale-up screening and referral of malnutrition cases for rehabilitation. Action County department of Health.

Scale-up of therapeutic feeding programs to cover all needy areas in the county. Action County department of Health.

Promotion of rainwater harvesting technologies like roof catchment: County Department of Water and other stakeholders.

Water safety surveillance and treatment. Action County department of Health. Procurement and distribution of water treatment chemicals to Cholera hot spots in the

county- Action County department of Health. Clean and safe water trucking to Cholera hot spots- Action County department of Water.

National Drought Management Authority KILIFI COUNTY · National Drought Management Authority ......

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