LITTLE ROCK - Colliers International · 2016-10-24 · COLLIRS ITRATIOAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP...
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Accelerating success. Research & Forecast Report LITTLE ROCK Q3 2016 | Multifamily RECENT SALES Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar Market Survey Results and Forecasts Sequential Month Annual 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Sep-16 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Effective Rent Per Unit $740 $746 $753 $757 $766 $736 $740 $753 $770 $794 $814 $837 Per Sq. Ft $0.82 $0.83 $0.84 $0.84 $0.85 $0.82 $0.82 $0.84 $0.86 $0.88 $0.91 $0.93 Effective Rent Growth - Annually 0.7% 1.1% 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% -0.1% 0.5% 1.7% 2.3% 3.0% 2.5% 2.9% Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly -0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% Occupancy Rate 92.7% 92.6% 93.9% 93.4% 93.1% 93.2% 93.0% 93.3% 93.8% 94.2% 93.8% 94.2% Occupancy Change - Annually -0.6% -0.1% 1.0% -0.1% -0.2% 0.2% -0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% -0.4% 0.5% Occupancy Change - Quarterly -0.8% -0.1% 1.4% -0.6% Economic Concessions Concession Value $-13.68 $-17.05 $-13.09 $-9.37 $-9.19 $-10.81 $-13.11 As a % of Asking Rent -1.8% -2.2% -1.7% -1.2% -1.2% -1.4% -1.7% Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units Jul-16 Oakwood 1310 Smithwick Dr Jacksonville 240 1971 6,550,000 27,292 Jun-16 Towne Oaks Apartments 9300 Treasure Hill Rd Little Rock 216 1975 10,080,000 46,667 Apr-16 Colony West Apartments 1420 Breckenridge Dr Little Rock 126 1972 6,300,000 50,000 Mar-16 The Gables of Maumelle 1500 Union Ct Maumelle 120 2001 1,350,000 11,250 Mar-16 Metropolitan 75 Riverfront Dr North Little Rock 260 2008 32,015,000 123,135 Feb-16 St Johns Apartments 5501 W 65th St Little Rock 224 1972 3,200,000 14,286 Dec-15 Shorter College Garden 800 Beech St North Little Rock 196 1967 7,050,000 35,969 Dec-15 Willowbend 300 Marshall Rd Jacksonville 100 1977 4,250,000 42,500 Dec-15 Riverhouse Apartments 1200 Brookwood Dr Little Rock 261 2015 40,222,576 154,109 Nov-15 Crestwood Manor Apartments 3802 Kavanaugh Blvd Little Rock 218 1966 9,075,000 41,628
Transcript of LITTLE ROCK - Colliers International · 2016-10-24 · COLLIRS ITRATIOAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP...
Accelerating success.
Research & Forecast Report
LITTLE ROCKQ3 2016 | Multifamily
RECENT SALES
Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar
Market Survey Results and ForecastsSequential Month Annual
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Sep-16 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Effective Rent Per Unit $740 $746 $753 $757 $766 $736 $740 $753 $770 $794 $814 $837
Per Sq. Ft $0.82 $0.83 $0.84 $0.84 $0.85 $0.82 $0.82 $0.84 $0.86 $0.88 $0.91 $0.93
Effective Rent Growth - Annually 0.7% 1.1% 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% -0.1% 0.5% 1.7% 2.3% 3.0% 2.5% 2.9%
Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly -0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5%
Occupancy Rate 92.7% 92.6% 93.9% 93.4% 93.1% 93.2% 93.0% 93.3% 93.8% 94.2% 93.8% 94.2%
Occupancy Change - Annually -0.6% -0.1% 1.0% -0.1% -0.2% 0.2% -0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% -0.4% 0.5%
Occupancy Change - Quarterly -0.8% -0.1% 1.4% -0.6%
Economic Concessions Concession Value $-13.68 $-17.05 $-13.09 $-9.37 $-9.19 $-10.81 $-13.11
As a % of Asking Rent -1.8% -2.2% -1.7% -1.2% -1.2% -1.4% -1.7%
Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units
Jul-16 Oakwood 1310 Smithwick Dr Jacksonville 240 1971 6,550,000 27,292
Jun-16 Towne Oaks Apartments 9300 Treasure Hill Rd Little Rock 216 1975 10,080,000 46,667
Apr-16 Colony West Apartments 1420 Breckenridge Dr Little Rock 126 1972 6,300,000 50,000
Mar-16 The Gables of Maumelle 1500 Union Ct Maumelle 120 2001 1,350,000 11,250
Mar-16 Metropolitan 75 Riverfront Dr North Little Rock
260 2008 32,015,000 123,135
Feb-16 St Johns Apartments 5501 W 65th St Little Rock 224 1972 3,200,000 14,286
Dec-15 Shorter College Garden 800 Beech St North Little Rock
196 1967 7,050,000 35,969
Dec-15 Willowbend 300 Marshall Rd Jacksonville 100 1977 4,250,000 42,500
Dec-15 Riverhouse Apartments 1200 Brookwood Dr Little Rock 261 2015 40,222,576 154,109
Nov-15 Crestwood Manor Apartments
3802 Kavanaugh Blvd Little Rock 218 1966 9,075,000 41,628
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
SUPPLY AND DEMANDAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR Metro Area was 1.3% in August 2016, reflecting 4,500 jobs added during a 12-month period.
Axiometrics forecasts Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR Metro Area’s job growth to be 1.4% in 2017, with 4,839 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 1.2% from 2018 to 2020, with an average of 4,209 jobs added each year.
On the supply side, permits for 633 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in August 2016, down -509 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 2,294 units were permitted in the 12 months ending August 2016, a decrease of -405 units from the prior year’s total.
Multifamily Absorption and Supply
Annual 3Q16 Annual Forecast
2013 2014 2015 Market National 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Total Units Absorbed 621 1,036 105 838 274,353 993 667 905 629 1,093
New Supply 1,212 669 388 581 367,859 750 610 594 992 836
Inventory Growth 2.6% 1.9% 1.1% 1.0% 1.4% 1.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.8% 1.8%
Market Employment and Permitting
Annual August-16 Annual Forecast
2013 2014 2015 Market National 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Employment (000s) 344.6 345.7 350.4 355.1 144,424.0 356.1 360.9 364.4 368.5 373.5
Job Gain (000s) 2.1 1.1 4.7 4.5 2,451.0 5.7 4.8 3.5 4.1 5.0
Job Growth (%) 0.6% 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 1.0% 1.1% 1.4%
Total Residential Permitting 2,322 1,877 2,699 1,909 1,056,185 2,465 2,878 3,452 3,762 3,020
Relative Change -25.6% -19.2% 43.8% -10.1% 2.3% -8.7% 16.8% 19.9% 9.0% -19.7%
Single Family Units Permitted 1,508 1,309 1,487 1,452 658,713
Relative Change -9.0% -13.2% 13.6% 1.7% 9.1%
Multifamily Units Permitted 744 485 1,142 394 368,231
Relative Change -44.8% -34.8% 135.5% -38.1% -8.2%
Multifamily as a % of Total 32.0% 25.8% 42.3% 20.6% 34.9%
Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 0.7 0.5 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.2 1.2 1.3
Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 1.3 0.8 3.6 3.2 4.1
Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 4.8 23.3 14.1 12.1 6.1
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 3www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
IDENTIFIED SUPPLYAs of October 9, 2016, Axiometrics has identified 750 apartment units scheduled for delivery in 2016, of which, 390 have been delivered. As a comparison, there were 437 apartment units delivered in 2015. Properties delivered to the market in the last 12 months have achieved an average asking rent of $1,085 per unit, or $1.18 per square foot. Effective rent has averaged $1,081, or $1.17 per square foot, resulting in an average concession value of $-3.83. As a comparison, existing properties in the market had an average asking rent of $766 per unit ($0.85 per square foot) and an average effective rent of $757 per unit, or $0.84 per square foot, in 3Q16. Concessions for existing properties averaged $-9.37.
Submarket Delivery Schedule
Pipeline Delivery Schedule Pipeline Lease Up Trend
Units Absorbed Asking Rent Effective Rent
Top Submarkets 2014 2015 2016 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF North Little Rock 379 108 487 5 5 $954 $1.05 $949 $1.04
Pulaski County/Other 48 174 222 3 3 $1,089 $1.24 $1,089 $1.24
Saline County 384 384 $698 $0.87 $698 $0.87
West 84 84 168 104 17 $1,041 $1.10 $1,037 $1.10
Other 78 305 383 68 9 $1,157 $1.25 $1,153 $1.25
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
457 437 750 1,644 180 11 $1,079 $1.17 $1,075 $1.17
*Based on 2016 deliveries *Trend based on a trailing 12 month period
“We were extremely pleased with the East Region team and its ability to attract an incredible amount of
interest in our 3 assets. The number of offers received and the end results exceeded our expectations. They
have a talented group who was a pleasure to work with. Their performance stands out against any of the
groups we work with nationally.”
Nels Billsten, Vice President | CORE Realty Holding Management
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 4www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
PIPELINE# Name Status Owner Address Market Units1 Fountaine Bleau West Under Construction Burkhalter Technologies Inc. 4216 Bowman Rd Outer Southwest/University 1002 Bowman Pointe Under Construction Garth Development LLC 3321 S Bowman Rd Outlying West 1003 Village at the Gateway Proposed First Community Bank 12500 Vimy Ridge Rd Chicot West I-30 South 200
Total Units 400
Source: CoStar
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COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 5www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
WHO WE AREOne of the largest and most
experienced teams of multifamily
specialists in the industry
Units sold since 2011
30,000MORE THAN
Group gross transaction value in since 2011
$2.0B
Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors
50MORE THAN
Expansive geographic footprint
20COVERING OVER
STATES
WE CAN HELPAs an investor in multifamily properties, you need a firm that provides experience, broad reach and the ability to market an asset no matter how challenging the economic environment. You need a team that specializes in your market you need The East Region Multifamily Advisory Group.
Colliers International has one of the largest and most experienced teams in the industry, strategically located in key markets throughout North America. Our combination of market dominance, expertise, and singular focus, make us uniquely successful in helping our clients achieve their disposition objectives.
How are we able to bring together the skills and tools necessary to complete challenging assignments? Our East Region Multifamily Advisory Group is connected by purpose and focus. Our team is dedicated to sharing information on market opportunities, capital sources and buyers/sellers to achieve the best results for our clients.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 6www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
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AT YOUR SERVICE
Gabe TovarASSOCIATE | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 816 556 1161
Will MathewsPRINCIPAL | EAST REGION
INSTITUTIONAL CLIENT GROUP
[email protected] +1 404 877 9285
Brooks ColquittASSOCIATE | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 404 978 2337
Craig BrownASSOCIATE | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 404 978 2336
Bob Galamba, CCIM, SIOR
SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 816 556 1152
