GREENVILLE - East Region...COLLIRS ITRATIOAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2 Multifamily Absorption...
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Accelerating success. Research & Forecast Report GREENVILLE Q3 2016 | Multifamily RECENT SALES Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar Market Survey Results and Forecasts Sequential Month Annual 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Sep-16 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Effective Rent Per Unit $876 $883 $910 $911 $903 $827 $871 $902 $921 $948 $982 $1,013 Per Sq. Ft $0.90 $0.90 $0.93 $0.93 $0.93 $0.85 $0.89 $0.92 $0.94 $0.97 $1.01 $1.04 Effective Rent Growth - Annually 3.9% 4.5% 3.8% 2.8% 2.2% 4.0% 5.3% 3.5% 2.1% 3.0% 3.6% 3.1% Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly -1.2% 0.8% 3.0% 0.1% Occupancy Rate 95.3% 94.7% 95.3% 95.4% 95.1% 95.1% 95.7% 95.1% 94.5% 94.7% 95.0% 94.6% Occupancy Change - Annually -0.2% -0.5% -0.8% -0.6% -0.8% 0.0% 0.6% -0.6% -0.7% 0.2% 0.4% -0.5% Occupancy Change - Quarterly -0.8% -0.6% 0.6% 0.1% Economic Concessions Concession Value $-4.51 $-3.52 $-1.97 $-3.94 $-4.12 $-3.53 $-2.76 As a % of Asking Rent -0.5% -0.4% -0.2% -0.4% -0.5% -0.4% -0.3% Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units Sep-16 Ashmore Bridge Estates 423 W Butler Rd Greenville 246 1998 27,886,168 113,358 Sep-16 Estates at Bellwood 7 Southpointe Dr Greenville 140 1995 16,861,031 120,436 Sep-16 Pleasantdale Apts 901 N Main St Mauldin 80 1971 3,800,000 47,500 Sep-16 Innovation Apartment Homes 75 Innovation Dr Greenville 336 2015 56,800,000 169,048 Sep-16 Signature Pointe 607 Emily Ln Piedmont 198 2005 17,999,991 90,909 Sep-16 Rosemont at Patewood 49 Orchard Park Dr Greenville 172 1984 15,350,000 89,244 Sep-16 Westwood Apts 1022 W Buford St Gaffney 166 1989 3,148,649 18,968 Aug-16 Magnolia Townhomes 201 E Blackstock Rd Spartanburg 98 1974 5,500,000 56,122 Aug-16 Edgemont Apartments 151 Mitchell Rd Greenville 144 1985 12,050,000 83,681 Jun-16 The Lexington Place Apartment Homes 130 Willow Forks Dr Simpsonville 144 2000 12,850,000 89,236 May-16 Springwood 410 Sulphur Springs Rd Greenville 152 1981 5,950,000 39,145 May-16 Stratford Villa 200 Eunice Dr Greenville 100 1974 4,550,000 45,500
Transcript of GREENVILLE - East Region...COLLIRS ITRATIOAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2 Multifamily Absorption...
Accelerating success.
Research & Forecast Report
GREENVILLEQ3 2016 | Multifamily
RECENT SALES
Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar
Market Survey Results and ForecastsSequential Month Annual
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Sep-16 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Effective Rent Per Unit $876 $883 $910 $911 $903 $827 $871 $902 $921 $948 $982 $1,013
Per Sq. Ft $0.90 $0.90 $0.93 $0.93 $0.93 $0.85 $0.89 $0.92 $0.94 $0.97 $1.01 $1.04
Effective Rent Growth - Annually 3.9% 4.5% 3.8% 2.8% 2.2% 4.0% 5.3% 3.5% 2.1% 3.0% 3.6% 3.1%
Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly -1.2% 0.8% 3.0% 0.1%
Occupancy Rate 95.3% 94.7% 95.3% 95.4% 95.1% 95.1% 95.7% 95.1% 94.5% 94.7% 95.0% 94.6%
Occupancy Change - Annually -0.2% -0.5% -0.8% -0.6% -0.8% 0.0% 0.6% -0.6% -0.7% 0.2% 0.4% -0.5%
Occupancy Change - Quarterly -0.8% -0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Economic Concessions Concession Value $-4.51 $-3.52 $-1.97 $-3.94 $-4.12 $-3.53 $-2.76
As a % of Asking Rent -0.5% -0.4% -0.2% -0.4% -0.5% -0.4% -0.3%
Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units
Sep-16 Ashmore Bridge Estates 423 W Butler Rd Greenville 246 1998 27,886,168 113,358
Sep-16 Estates at Bellwood 7 Southpointe Dr Greenville 140 1995 16,861,031 120,436
Sep-16 Pleasantdale Apts 901 N Main St Mauldin 80 1971 3,800,000 47,500
Sep-16 Innovation Apartment Homes
75 Innovation Dr Greenville 336 2015 56,800,000 169,048
Sep-16 Signature Pointe 607 Emily Ln Piedmont 198 2005 17,999,991 90,909
Sep-16 Rosemont at Patewood 49 Orchard Park Dr Greenville 172 1984 15,350,000 89,244
Sep-16 Westwood Apts 1022 W Buford St Gaffney 166 1989 3,148,649 18,968
Aug-16 Magnolia Townhomes 201 E Blackstock Rd Spartanburg 98 1974 5,500,000 56,122
Aug-16 Edgemont Apartments 151 Mitchell Rd Greenville 144 1985 12,050,000 83,681
Jun-16 The Lexington Place Apartment Homes
130 Willow Forks Dr Simpsonville 144 2000 12,850,000 89,236
May-16 Springwood 410 Sulphur Springs Rd Greenville 152 1981 5,950,000 39,145
May-16 Stratford Villa 200 Eunice Dr Greenville 100 1974 4,550,000 45,500
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
Multifamily Absorption and Supply
Annual 3Q16 Annual Forecast
(5) 697 873 1,520 274,353 2,350 1,180 1,127 669 338
Total Units Absorbed 151 359 996 2,060 367,859 2,710 1,503 984 546 651
New Supply 0.2% 0.7% 1.6% 3.1% 1.4% 4.0% 5.1% 2.3% 1.6% 1.2%
Inventory Growth 1.1% 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.2% 1.0%
Market Employment and Permitting
Annual August-16 Annual Forecast
2013 2014 2015 Market National 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Employment (000s) 379.4 388.5 401.3 409.3 144,943.0 409.4 416.3 421.3 427.1 434.2
Job Gain (000s) 10.8 9.1 12.8 5.3 2,423.0 8.2 6.9 5.0 5.8 7.1
Job Growth (%) 2.9% 2.4% 3.3% 1.3% 1.7% 2.0% 1.7% 1.2% 1.4% 1.7%
Total Residential Permitting 3,487 4,770 5,814 4,758 1,067,393 5,119 5,450 4,463 3,816 4,022
Relative Change 26.1% 36.8% 21.9% -14.1% 2.7% -12.0% 6.5% -18.1% -14.5% 5.4%
Single Family Units Permitted 3,066 3,488 3,721 3,725 670,410
Relative Change 18.9% 13.8% 6.7% 11.2% 9.8%
Multifamily Units Permitted 401 1,272 2,043 981 367,805
Relative Change 137.3% 217.2% 60.6% -54.1% -8.2%
Multifamily as a % of Total 11.5% 26.7% 35.1% 20.6% 34.5%
Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 3.9 2.6 2.7 1.0 2.3 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.9
Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 4.2 3.0 3.7 1.6 4.0
Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 64.2 22.8 10.0 2.5 6.1
SUPPLY AND DEMANDAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC Metro Area was 1.3% in September 2016, reflecting 5,300 jobs added during a 12-month period. The metro job growth figure was below the national number of 1.7%.
Axiometrics forecasts Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC Metro Area’s job growth to be 1.7% in 2017, with 6,900 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 1.4% from 2018 to 2020, with an average of 5,950 jobs added each year.
On the supply side, permits for 1,215 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in August 2016, down -828 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 5,313 units were permitted in the 12 months ending August 2016, a decrease of -501 units from the prior year’s total.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 3www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
IDENTIFIED SUPPLYAs of October 9, 2016, Axiometrics has identified 998 apartment units scheduled for delivery in 2016, of which, 652 have been delivered. As a comparison, there were 1,597 apartment units delivered in 2015. Properties delivered to the market in the last 12 months have achieved an average asking rent of $1,125 per unit, or $1.17 per square foot. Effective rent has averaged $1,108, or $1.15 per square foot, resulting in an average concession value of $-16.75. As a comparison, existing properties in the market had an average asking rent of $869 per unit ($0.90 per square foot) and an average effective rent of $864 per unit, or $0.89 per square foot, in 3Q16. Concessions for existing properties averaged $-5.34.
Submarket Delivery Schedule
Pipeline Delivery Schedule Pipeline Lease Up Trend
Units Absorbed Asking Rent Effective Rent
Top Submarkets 2014 2015 2016 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF Central 312 312 238 20 $997 $0.98 $944 $0.93
Northwest 207 403 487 1,097 255 8 $1,409 $1.78 $1,341 $1.69
South Greenville County 104 520 938 1,562 493 14 $1,215 $1.18 $1,146 $1.11
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC 311 923 1,737 2,971 986 12 $1,248 $1.36 $1,183 $1.29
*Based on 2016 deliveries *Trend based on a trailing 12 month period
“We were extremely pleased with the East Region team and its ability to attract an incredible amount of interest in our 3 assets. The number of offers received and the end results exceeded our expectations. They have a talented group who was a pleasure to work with. Their performance stands out against any of the groups we work with nationally.”
Nels Billsten, Vice President | CORE Realty Holding Management
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 4www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
PIPELINE DETAIL# Name Status Owner Address Market Units1 Innovation Apartments Lease Up MAA 75 Innovation Dr Outer Greenville/Mauldin 3022 Main & Stone Lease Up The Beach Company 644 N Main St Viola Street Area 2133 Haywood Reserve Lease Up Daniel Corporation 826 Old Airport Rd Eastside 2324 Velo Verdae Lease Up Arlington Properties 205 Verdae Blvd Pleasantburg 1315 Greenville Lofts Under Construction Arlington Properties 450 S Academy St West End 2156 Ellison on Broad Under Construction Proffitt Dixon Partners 212 E Broad St Downtown 2017 Prestwick Ridge Apartments Under Construction Redwood Living 2402 Dry Pocket Rd Greer 1708 The Enclave Phase II Under Construction McCall Capital LLC 101 Enclave Paris Dr N Outer Greenville/Berea 1709 Mosby Poinsett Under Construction Middleburg Management, LLC 6001 Hampden Dr N Outer Greenville/Berea 24410 Larkspur Pointe Phase II Under Construction RegencyMM LLC 1000 Knight's Spur Ct Simpsonville 10611 Main & Stone Phase II Under Construction The Beach Company 644 N Main St Viola Street Area 8012 Highlands at Market Point -
Phase IIUnder Construction Brand Properties 30 Market Point Dr Pleasantburg 225
13 Ardmore at the Park Under Construction Ardmore Residential 805 Mauldin Rd Pleasantburg 35014 District West Apartments Under Construction Flournoy Companies 101 Reedy View Dr Downtown 36515 Link Apartments West End Under Construction Grubb Properties 25 River St West End 21516 Velo Verdae - Phase II Under Construction Arlington Properties 205 Verdae Blvd Pleasantburg 13117 The Residences at Century Park Proposed Consolidated Management of
Greenville3422 Brushy Creek Rd Greer 298
18 Greenville Gateway Proposed Greenville Gateway Developers 400 N Church St Pettigru Street Area 17619 Laurel Woods II Proposed Edward Rose & Sons Fairforest Way &
Wenwood RdPleasantburg 330
20 Camperdown Multi-Family Proposed Centennial American Properties, LLC
Falls St Downtown 243
21 The West End Apartment Homes
Proposed Woodfield Investments 1100 S Main St West Greenville 271
22 Perimeter Proposed Lyon Construction & Development 100 N Markley St West End 7023 Northpointe Proposed Central Realty Corporation 400 E Stone Ave Viola Street Area 285
Total Units 5,023
5 6
9
14
7
12
1015
8
13
11
16
Key
Lease-Up
Under Construction
Proposed
17
18
21
19
2220
2312
3
4Downtown Greenville
Downtown Greenville
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 5www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
LEGACY AT SAND HILL | Columbia, SC
CHALLENGE: Significant prepayment penalty on the existing loan so buyer had to assume and put an additional supplemental loan on top. Capital Markets shifted and effected the supplemental loan proceeds after being under contract.
STRATEGY & RESULTS: The East Region team was the exclusive sales agent for Mesa Capital Partners. Our goal was to minimize exposure to the seller and generate the highest net number possible for them. We provided the clients with property marketing, and assisted through all negotiations, and due diligence up until closing. This is the second time in three years this team has sold this property, resulting in the highest price per unit trade in Columbia year to date.
CLIENT: Mesa Capital Partners UNITS: 240
OUR PROVEN TRACK RECORDRecent Closings
Greenhill Parish CrossingColumbia, SCUnits: 240
Villas at Spears CreekColumbia, SCUnits: 240
Legacy at SandhillColumbia, SCUnits: 240
Springtree ApartmentsColumbia, SCUnits: 152
WHO WE AREOne of the largest and most
experienced teams of multifamily
specialists in the industry
Units sold since 2011
30,000MORE THAN
Group gross transaction value in since 2011
$2.0B
Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors
50MORE THAN
Expansive geographic footprint
20COVERING OVER
STATES
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 6www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
WE CAN HELPAs an investor in multifamily properties, you need a firm that provides experience, broad reach and the ability to market an asset no matter how challenging the economic environment. You need a team that specializes in your market you need The East Region Multifamily Advisory Group.
Colliers International has one of the largest and most experienced teams in the industry, strategically located in key markets throughout North America. Our combination of market dominance, expertise, and singular focus, make us uniquely successful in helping our clients achieve their disposition objectives.
How are we able to bring together the skills and tools necessary to complete challenging assignments? Our East Region Multifamily Advisory Group is connected by purpose and focus. Our team is dedicated to sharing information on market opportunities, capital sources and buyers/sellers to achieve the best results for our clients.
Woody MooreEXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT | SOUTH CAROLINA
[email protected] +1 803 401 4236
www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
To learn more, scan this with a QR code reader or visit:
Will MathewsPRINCIPAL | EAST REGION
INSTITUTIONAL CLIENT GROUP
[email protected] +1 404 877 9285
Brooks ColquittASSOCIATE | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 404 978 2337
Craig BrownASSOCIATE | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 404 978 2336
AT YOUR SERVICE
