Trends and Technology Issues in the Construction and

Transportation area to meet Climate Change

OutlineOutline

• Accelerating rate of changeAccelerating rate of change• Conscious-TechnologyConscious-Technology• Carbon SequestrationCarbon Sequestration• Shift to Electric transportationShift to Electric transportation• Solar Power Satellites (Japan)Solar Power Satellites (Japan)• Urban Systems EcologyUrban Systems Ecology• Construction retrofit with solar energyConstruction retrofit with solar energy• Transportation and Construction Collective Transportation and Construction Collective

Intelligence for Climate ChangeIntelligence for Climate Change• Integration of archeology, urban systems Integration of archeology, urban systems

ecology, and cyberspaceecology, and cyberspace

Just 25 years ago, who would have believed that Korea’s…• Businesses could compete successfully with

the USA in•Transportation•Communications•Information systems

• GDP would be 13th in the world and close to both Russia’s and India’s GPD

• GDP per capita (PPP) would be US$10,000 more than Russia’s

• Computer games would be played by millions around the world?

Just 25 years ago, there was Just 25 years ago, there was no no

• Euros, WTO, or NATO in AfghanistanEuros, WTO, or NATO in Afghanistan

• Internet, camera-phones, few PCsInternet, camera-phones, few PCs

• Talk of globalization, genetically modified Talk of globalization, genetically modified food, stem cells, or AIDS pandemicfood, stem cells, or AIDS pandemic

• Asymmetrical warfare, and Asymmetrical warfare, and

• … … and most believed that a nuclear WW and most believed that a nuclear WW IIIIIIwould have destroyed the world by nowwould have destroyed the world by now

2007

2025

2050

25 Years from now, what will we construct?

What’s possible in next 25 years? • Nanotech in all transportation and construction for

efficiencies and reduced environmental impacts

• Urban systems ecology as well established field

• Collective Intelligence software (personal, local, and global)

• “Just in time knowledge” in the build environment

• The race to connect anything not yet connected

• Lines of genetic code written like software code making biotecture (integrating biology and architecture)

• More than half the world spends more than half its time in cyberspace being more “real” that 3D reality

• A global brain(s) emerging from Internet

• …evolving into Conscious-Technology

Conscious-Technology(Post-Information Age)

When the distinction between these two trends becomes blurred, we will have

reached the Post-Information Age

HUMANS BECOMING CYBORGS

BUILT ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INTELLIGENT

1985

2000

2015

2030

Simplification of History Simplification of History

and an Alternative and an Alternative FutureFutureAge or

EraProducProduc

ttPowerPower WealtWealt

hhPlacePlace WarWar TimeTime

Agricultural

Extraction

Food/Res

Religion Land Earth/Res Location Cyclical

Industrial MachineNation-State

Capital FactoryResourc

esLinear

Information

Info/serv

Corporation Access Office Perceptio

n Flexible

Conscious-Technolog

yLinkage

Individual

Being Motion IdentityInvente

d

18801860

500

0

1000

1500

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Surprise

Geothermal

Solar

Biomass

Wind

NuclearHydro

Gas

Oil &NGL

Coal

Trad. Bio.

Exa

jou

les

Carbon Sequestration Shell Oil’s “Sustainable” Growth

Carbon sequestration

800-1,000 Coal plants without carbon capture and storage are in planning or construction

We need an overview ofWe need an overview ofCarbon Sequestration OptionsCarbon Sequestration Options

Technology Technology OptionOption

State of State of Scientific Scientific Knowledge Knowledge now now

Cost, Cost, benefit, benefit, time-to-time-to-impactimpact

Policy Policy OptionsOptions

Option 1Option 1

Option 2Option 2

Etc.Etc.

Low cost electric car batteries (batteries may fall to $2,000 for 10KW)

Lithium-Ion batteries from Thunder Sky in China could dramatically lower the costs of electric cars in Europe and North America when their new factories are completed in July 2007 in the US and the second half of 2008 in Finland.

Chinese bus companies have signed the long-term contracts. Chinese car companies could use these batteries to make as many as 100,000 by 2008 and 200,000 by 2009/2010.

Fossil Fuels ? Environmental Impacts

By 2050 an additional ~2.4 billion people will be added, 5-7 billion of the 9 billion in 2050 will live in urban concentrations, economic growth will accelerate, 300-425 nuclear power plants will be closed, electric cars will increase. Where will the extra electricity come from ?

Nuclear power ? Security and Env. Impacts

Alternatives from earth ? Not enough for megacities

Energy from Space ? No greenhouse gases No nuclear waste Enough for the world

Solar Power Satellites … Global Electricity Issues

Space Solar Power

Global Energy Grid

Urban Systems Ecology

• Ubiquitous computingUbiquitous computing• Nanotech sensorsNanotech sensors• Collective IntelligenceCollective Intelligence• To optimize efficiencies with just To optimize efficiencies with just

in time knowledgein time knowledge• City becomes a Conscious-City becomes a Conscious-

Technology Meta-organismTechnology Meta-organism• Resilience Systems for Resilience Systems for

anticipation, identification, anticipation, identification, responseresponse

No more please…

Source: www.transfuture.net

TodayToday

Tomorrow, Tomorrow, maybemaybe

Retrofit for Solar Energy

Collective Intelligence (CI) to support future transportation and construction•CI is an emergent property from synergies

among data/information/intelligence, software/hardware, and experts, that continually learns from feedback to produce just in time knowledge for better decisions than these elements acting alone.

•Wikipedia is an early example. GENIS is another.

GENIS (Global Energy Network and Information System)

• The The Global Energy NetworkGlobal Energy Network (GEN), providing (GEN), providing communications and collaboration capabilities for a communications and collaboration capabilities for a worldwide community of experts and others working worldwide community of experts and others working

on, or concerned with, energy issues;on, or concerned with, energy issues;

• The The Global Energy Information SystemGlobal Energy Information System (GEIS), a (GEIS), a repository (knowledge base) and associated repository (knowledge base) and associated interactive access facility for as much of the world's interactive access facility for as much of the world's total knowledge (actual content, pointers to external total knowledge (actual content, pointers to external systems, and ability to mashup from other databases systems, and ability to mashup from other databases into one integrated set of outputs) about energy as into one integrated set of outputs) about energy as can be accumulated.can be accumulated.

Integration of archeology, urban systems ecology, and cyberspace

http://www.jvrb.orgwww.jvrb.org