Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January 2015

POLITICAL MONITOR

January 2015

Contacts: [email protected]

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020 7347 3000

Voting Intentions

3Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those

“certain to vote”

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Conservative lead = +1

All giving a voting intention: 81%

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

35%

34%

8%

11%

7%5%

Base:1,010 British adults 18+, 11th -13th January 2015, all certain to vote = 617

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

UKIP

Other

All certain to vote: 61%

Conservative lead = -1

33%

34%

8%

11%

8%6%

Greens

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Apr-0

4

Ju

l-04

Oct-0

4

Ja

n-0

5

Apr-0

5

Ju

l-05

Oct-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Apr-0

6

Ju

l-06

Oct-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Apr-0

7

Ju

l-07

Oct-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Apr-0

8

Ju

l-08

Oct-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Apr-0

9

Ju

l-09

Oct-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Apr-1

0

Ju

l-10

Oct-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Apr-1

1

Ju

l-11

Oct-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Apr-1

2

Ju

l-12

Oct-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Apr-1

3

Ju

l-13

Oct-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Apr-1

4

Ju

l-14

Oct-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

34%

8%

33%

11%

2005 General Election

Cameron elected

(Dec 05)

Brown as PM (Jun 07)


Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through January 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Voting Intentions April ‘04 – January ‘15

(all certain to vote)

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

8%

5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

How certain are Labour and Conservative supporters in their

intention to vote? March ‘08 to January ‘15

% of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote”



Labour Conservative

64%70%

Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through January 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter

Satisfaction with the Coalition

and Party Leaders

7

52

64

61

48

56

41

25

26

35

33

Net Satisfaction

Swing from December

2014

-11 +5

-39 -0.5

-35 +1.5

-13 +3.5

-23 +4

Base:1,010 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th January 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and %

“dissatisfied”

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister

/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?

David Cameron

The Government

Nick Clegg

Ed Miliband

% Satisfied% Dissatisfied

Nigel Farage


8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ap

r-08

Ju

l-08

Oct-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ap

r-09

Ju

l-09

Oct-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ap

r-10

Ju

l-10

Oct-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ap

r-11

Ju

l-11

Oct-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ap

r-12

Ju

l-12

Oct-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ap

r-13

Ju

l-13

Oct-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ap

r-14

Ju

l-14

Oct-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

25%

% s

ati

sfi

ed

Cameron

Clegg

General Election

41%

Miliband 26%Brown

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?

Satisfaction with Party leaders March ‘08 – January ‘14

Farage

35%

9

Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

THATCHER

BLAIRMAJOR

BROWN

CAMERON


Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Note: Data collected prior to January 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from January 2008 was via telephone

10

41%

52%

6%


David Cameron (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative

Party/ as Prime Minister?


Satisfied

Dissatisfied

January 2015

SatisfiedDon’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = -11

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th January 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

January 2007 – January 2015

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Base: 291 Conservative supporters 18+, 11th -13th January 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

David Cameron

(satisfaction among Tory supporters)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative

Party/ as Prime Minister?

81%

15%

4%Satisfied

Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = +66 Note: Data collected prior to January 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from January 2008 was via telephone

January 2007 – January 2015January 2015

12


Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

HAGUE (1997-2001)DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders

(1994 – 2015)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

CAMERON (2005-2010)

BLAIR (1994-1997)

MILIBAND (2010-2015)

HOWARD

(2003-2005)


Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

13

26%

61%

13%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ed Miliband (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?


Dissatisfied

Satisfied



Dissatisfied

Net = -35


14

48%

45%

8%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Base: 256 Labour supporters 18+, 11th – 13th January 2015

Ed Miliband

(satisfaction among Labour supporters)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

January 2015

Net = +3


Dissatisfied


Dissatisfied

Satisfied


15

25%

64%

10%

Nick Clegg (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/

as Deputy Prime Minister?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Dissatisfied

Satisfied



Dissatisfied

Net = -39


16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Base: 68 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 11th – 13th January 2015. N.B. small base size indicative only

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

January 2015

50%

42%

9%Satisfied

Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = +8

Nick Clegg

(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/

as Deputy Prime Minister?




17

35%

48%

16%

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK

Independence Party?


All


Dissatisfied

Net = -13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

March 2013 – January 2015


18

89%

7% 3%

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK

Independence Party?

Nigel Farage

(satisfaction among UKIP supporters)

Base: 83 UKIP supporters,11th -13th January 2015. N.B. small base size indicative only

UKIP supporters

Satisfied

Don’t knowDissatisfied

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

March 2013 – January 2015

Net = +82


The economy

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ja

n-0

5A

pr-

05

Ju

l-0

5O

ct-

05

Ja

n-0

6A

pr-

06

Ju

l-0

6O

ct-

06

Ja

n-0

7A

pr-

07

Ju

l-0

7O

ct-

07

Ja

n-0

8A

pr-

08

Ju

l-0

8O

ct-

08

Ja

n-0

9A

pr-

09

Ju

l-0

9O

ct-

09

Ja

n-1

0A

pr-

10

Ju

l-1

0O

ct-

10

Ja

n-1

1A

pr-

11

Ju

l-1

1O

ct-

11

Ja

n-1

2A

pr-

12

Ju

l-1

2O

ct-

12

Ja

n-1

3A

pr-

13

Ju

l-1

3O

ct-

13

Ja

n-1

4A

pr-

14

Ju

l-1

4O

ct-

14

Ja

n-1

5

Economic Optimism Index

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse

over the next 12 months?


Improve

Stay the same

Get worse Improve

Don’t know

Get worse

Stay the same

December 2014

EOI = +12

38%

30%

26%

6%

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11th -13th January 2015

21

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Ap

r-9

7Ju

l-9

7O

ct-

97

Ja

n-9

8A

pr-

98

Ju

l-9

8O

ct-

98

Ja

n-9

9A

pr-

99

Ju

l-9

9O

ct-

99

Ja

n-0

0A

pr-

00

Ju

l-0

0O

ct-

00

Ja

n-0

1A

pr-

01

Ju

l-0

1O

ct-

01

Ja

n-0

2A

pr-

02

Ju

l-0

2O

ct-

02

Ja

n-0

3A

pr-

03

Ju

l-0

3O

ct-

03

Ja

n-0

4A

pr-

04

Ju

l-0

4O

ct-

04

Ja

n-0

5A

pr-

05

Ju

l-0

5O

ct-

05

Ja

n-0

6A

pr-

06

Ju

l-0

6O

ct-

06

Ja

n-0

7A

pr-

07

Ju

l-0

7O

ct-

07

Ja

n-0

8A

pr-

08

Ju

l-0

8O

ct-

08

Ja

n-0

9A

pr-

09

Ju

l-0

9O

ct-

09

Ja

n-1

0A

pr-

10

Ju

l-1

0O

ct-

10

Ja

n-1

1A

pr-

11

Ju

l-1

1O

ct-

11

Ja

n-1

2A

pr-

12

Ju

l-1

2O

ct-

12

Ja

n-1

3A

pr-

13

Ju

l-1

3O

ct-

13

Ja

n-1

4A

pr-

14

Ju

l-1

4O

ct-

14

Ja

n-1

5

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse

over the next 12 months?

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

+28

-46

-56

-48

+23

The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

Ind

ex

(g

et

be

tte

r m

inu

s g

et

wo

rse)

-64


+12

+35

23Have the voters decided yet?

Have you definitely decided to vote for the Conservative Party/ Labour Party/ Liberal Democrats/ Greens/

UKIP/ SNP/Plaid Cymru or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11th -13th January 2015

August 2014 January 2015

43%

Definitely

decided

56%

May change

mind

47%

Definitely

decided

51%

May change

mind

2% don’t know 2% don’t know

24Which issues will be very important when voters

cast their ballots? Top four issues

Looking ahead to the next General Election, which if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in

helping you decide which party to vote for?


23%

30%

31%

29%

20%

27%

33%

46%

Education/schools

Asylum and immigration

Managing the economy/economic situation

Healthcare/NHS/hospitals

September 2014January 2015

25Which issues will be very important when voters

cast their ballots?

Looking ahead to the next General Election, which if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in

helping you decide which party to vote for?


Only showing answers above 5%; see computer tables for full results

5%

5%

5%

8%

8%

9%

9%

20%

27%

33%

46%

Pensions

Foreign policy/foreign affairs

Housing

Benefits

Taxation

Europe/EU

Unemployment

Education/schools

Asylum and immigration

Managing the economy/economic situation

Healthcare/NHS/hospitals

Sept ‘14

29%

31%

30%

23%

10%

11%

8%

13%

5%

12%

6%

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January 2015

News & Politics

Transcript of Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January 2015