Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2016

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

1

March 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

3 Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends

vote in General Elections = 752. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015

GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.

Voting Intention

36%

35%

12%

3%

9% 5%

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +1 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +2

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

36%

34%

11%

3%

10%

6%


SATISFACTION WITH THE

GOVERNMENT AND

PARTY LEADERS


24%

36%

41%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF

UKIP?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016 When asked about Nigel Farage and Tim Farron the sample was split sampled with 521 and 502

British adults 18+ asked about each respectively. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

35%

46%

19%

34%

59%

7%

38%

40%

22% 32%

61%

7%

-5% swing from February 2016

+5% swing from February 2016

+6.5% swing from February 2016

+1% swing from February 2016

-1.5% swing from February 2016

-25 Net -11 Net -2 Net -12 Net -29 Net

SATISFIED 34% SATISFIED 35% SATISFIED 38% SATISFIED 24% SATISFIED 32%

DISSATISFIED 59% DISSATISFIED 46% DISSATISFIED 40% DISSATISFIED 36% DISSATISFIED 61%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS

JOB AS … ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

Satisfaction with Party leaders Feb’09 – Mar’16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Feb

-09

Jul-

09

Dec-

09

May-1

0

Oct

-10

Mar-

11

Au

g-1

1

Jan

-12

Jun

-12

No

v-1

2

Ap

r-13

Sep

-13

Feb

-14

Jul-

14

Dec-

14

May-1

5

Oct

-15

Mar-

16

CAMERON FARAGE CORBYN FARRON

34%

38% 35%

24%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY / AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016

David Cameron (satisfaction)

34%

59%

7%

March 2016 MAY 2006 –March 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May-0

6Ju

l-06

Sep

-06

No

v-0

6A

pr-

07

Jun

-07

Au

g-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-0

8M

ar-

08

May-0

8Ju

l-08

Sep

-08

No

v-0

8Ja

n-0

9M

ar-

09

May-0

9Ju

l-09

Sep

-09

No

v-0

9Ja

n-1

0M

ar-

10

May-1

0Ju

l-10

Oct

-10

Dec-

10

Feb

-11

Ap

r-11

Jun

-11

Au

g-1

1O

ct-1

1D

ec-

11

Feb

-12

Ap

r-12

Jun

-12

Au

g-1

2O

ct-1

2D

ec-

12

Feb

-13

Ap

r-13

Jun

-13

Au

g-1

3O

ct-1

3D

ec-

13

Feb

-14

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4O

ct-1

4D

ec-

14

Feb

-15

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5Ja

n-1

6M

ar-

16


SATISFIED 34%

DISSATISFIED 59%

DON’T KNOW 7%

Net = -25

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 297 Conservative supporters 18+ 19th – 22nd March 2016

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)

March 2016 MAY 2006 –March 2016


68%

21%

11%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

May 0

6A

ug

06

Jan

07

Jun

07

Sep

07

Jan

08

Ap

r 08

Jul 08

Oct

-08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct

-11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r 15

Jul-

15

No

v-1

5Feb

-16

SATISFIED 68%

DISSATISFIED 21%

DON’T KNOW 11%

Net = +47

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

SATISFIED 35%

DISSATISFIED 46%

DON’T KNOW 19%

Net = -11

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?


Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

March 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015 – March 2016


35%

46%

19%

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

SATISFIED 59%

DISSATISFIED 28%

DON’T KNOW 13%

Net = -21 59% 28%

13%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 303 Labour supporters 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

SATISFIED 24%

DISSATISFIED 36%

DON’T KNOW 40%

Net = -12

24%

36%

40%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 502 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016

Tim Farron (satisfaction)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mar-

13

Ap

r-13

May-1

3Ju

n-1

3Ju

l-13

Au

g-1

3Sep

-13

Oct

-13

No

v-1

3D

ec-

13

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar-

14

Ap

r-14

May-1

4Ju

n-1

4Ju

l-14

Au

g-1

4Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4D

ec-

14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar-

15

Ap

r-152

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5D

ec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

SATISFIED 38%

DISSATISFIED 40%

DON’T KNOW 22%

Net = -2

38%

40%

22%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 521 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)

March 2016 MARCH 2013 – March 2016

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ap

r-04

Au

g-0

4D

ec-

04

Ap

r-05

Au

g-0

5Ja

n-0

6M

ay-0

6O

ct-0

6A

pr-

07

Au

g-0

7Ja

n-0

8M

ay-0

8Sep

-08

Jan

-09

May-0

9Sep

-09

Jan

-10

May-1

0O

ct-1

0Feb

-11

Jun

-11

Oct

-11

Feb

-12

Jun

-12

Oct

-12

Feb

-13

Jun

-13

Oct

-13

Feb

-14

Jun

-14

Oct

-14

Feb

-15

Jun

-15

No

v-1

5M

ar-

16

IMPROVE 23%

STAY THE SAME 32%

GET WORSE 40%

DON’T KNOW 5%

EOI = -17

23%

32%

40%

5%

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Economic Optimism Index

March 2016


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Feb

1998

Sep

1998

Ap

r 1999

No

v 1

999

Jun

2000

Jan

2001

Au

g 2

001

Mar

2002

Oct

2002

May 2

003

Dec

2003

Jul 2004

Feb

2005

Sep

2005

Ap

r 2006

No

v 2

006

Jun

2007

Jan

2008

Au

g 2

008

Mar

2009

Oct

2009

May 2

010

Dec

2010

Jul 2011

Feb

2012

Sep

2012

Ap

r 2013

No

v 2

013

Jun

2014

Jan

2015

Au

g 2

015

Mar

2016

-17


EUROPE


49%

41%

8% 2% *%

43%

36%

20%

2% *%

QA) ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION QA/B COMBINED) ALL GIVING A VOTING

INTENTION

QA) AS YOU MAY KNOW THE UNITED KINGDOM WILL HAVE A REFERENDUM ON ITS MEMBERSHIP OF

THE EUROPEAN UNION ON THE 23RD OF JUNE THIS YEAR. HOW WILL YOU VOTE ON THE QUESTION –

SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE

EUROPEAN UNION?


European Referendum voting intention

REMAIN

LEAVE

UNDECIDED

WOULD NOT VOTE

REFUSED

QB TO ALL UNDECIDED/REFUSED) WHICH WAY WOULD YOU BE MOST INCLINED TO VOTE?


HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO REMAIN / LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION OR IS

THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: All expressing an opinion on how they will vote 928 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016

Have the EU referendum voters decided yet?

57% 58% 63% 64%

40% 39% 35% 33%

3% 3% 2% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Oct

2015

No

v

2015

Dec

2015

Jan

2016

Feb

2016

Mar

2016

DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW


WHICH OF THESE HAS BEEN MORE IMPORTANT IN YOUR DECISION TO VOTE TO REMAIN IN / LEAVE THE

EUROPEAN UNION? BECAUSE YOU ARE HOPEFUL FOR THE FUTURE IF THE REMAIN IN / LEAVE SIDE WINS,

OR BECAUSE YOU ARE FEARFUL FOR THE FUTURE IF THE REMAIN IN / LEAVE SIDE LOSES?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: All expressing an opinion on how they will vote 928 British / All saying Remain (541) and all saying Leave (387) adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016

Are voters hopeful or fearful for the future?

51%

39%

5% 5%

All expressing an opinion

on how they will vote

HOPEFUL FOR THE FUTURE FEARFUL FOR THE FUTURE NEITHER DON’T KNOW

54% 39%

4% 3%

48%

39%

6% 7%

All voting Remain All voting Leave


AS YOU MAY KNOW DAVID CAMERON IS CAMPAIGNING FOR BRITAIN TO REMAIN WITHIN THE

EUROPEAN UNION. IF BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, DO YOU THINK THAT DAVID

CAMERON SHOULD RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER OR SHOULD HE CONTINUE BEING PRIME MINISTER?


What future for David Cameron?

48%

44%

1% 8%

RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER CONTINUE AS PRIME MINISTER NEITHER DON’T KNOW


CHANCELLOR


27%

60%

13%

CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY GEORGE OSBORNE IS

DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?


George Osborne (satisfaction)

March 2016 JUNE 2010 –March 2016


SATISFIED 27%

DISSATISFIED 60%

DON’T KNOW 13%

Net = -33

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jun

-10

Mar-

11

Dec-

11

Ap

r-12

Mar-

13

Ap

r-14

Mar-

15

Jul-

15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Mar-

16


66%

44%

67%

52%

45% 45%

34%

39%

44% 42%

37% 39%

36% 37%

18%

31%

17%

24%

28%

38%

34%

52%

44%

56%

45%

42%

48%

52%

34%

41%

55% 57%

48% 46%

49% 47%

42%

32%

28%

36%

40%

36% 38%

28% 27%

47%

43% 44%

35%

40%

27%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ma

r-76

Ma

r-77

Ap

r-7

8

Jul-80

Ma

r-82

Jun

-83

Ma

r-85

Ma

r-86

Ma

r-87

Mar-

88

Ma

r-89

Ma

r-90

Ma

r-91

Ma

r-92

Ma

r-93

De

c-9

3

De

c-9

4

No

v-9

5

De

c-9

5

No

v-9

6

De

c-9

6

Jul-

97

Fe

b-9

8

Ma

r-98

Ma

r-99

Fe

b-0

0

Ma

r-00

Jul-

00

Se

p-0

0

No

v-0

0

Ma

r-01

Ap

r-0

2

Apr-

03

Ma

r-04

No

v-0

5

Fe

b-0

6

De

c-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Mar-

08

Ma

r-10

Jun

-10

Ma

r-11

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

r-15

Jul-

15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY GEORGE OSBORNE IS

DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?


George Osborne (satisfaction)


% saying ‘satisfied’ Healey Major Howe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Darling Osborne


ON BALANCE DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT: IN THE LONG TERM,

THIS GOVERNMENT’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE THE STATE OF BRITAIN’S ECONOMY


Does the government have the right policies for

6

7

5

8

47

39

47

49

46

53

48

43

Mar-12

Mar-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

AGREE DISAGREE DON’T KNOW

Britain’s economy?


AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ITS 2016 BUDGET LAST WEEK. FROM WHAT YOU

KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD OR BAD THING…?

Budget proposals

22

17

24

35

38

40

43

45

35

Apr-14

Jul-15

Mar-16

19

10

17

33

44

53

48

46

30

Apr-14

Jul-15

Mar-16

29%

53%

18%

For the next generation For you personally

For the country

GOOD THING BAD THING DON’T KNOW

Base: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016


PLEASE CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THE FOLLOWING POLICIES?

Policy support

Putting a new tax on soft drinks high in sugar (for

example, the tax on a standard sized can could

be between 6-8p depending on the level of

sugar)

Cutting disability benefits for those who need

help with daily living, for example who need

aids like specialist toilet seats or grab rails

69%

26%

5% 13%

84%

3%

SUPPORT OPPOSE DON’T KNOW

Base: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

28

March 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2016

News & Politics

Transcript of Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2016