Ipsos MORI January 2018 Political Monitor

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

1

Ipsos MORIPOLITICALMONITORJanuary

2018

3Political Monitor | January 2018| Final | Public

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,031 British adults 18+, 19th January – 23rd January 2018; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it

depends vote in General Elections = 817. Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4%

Voting Intention

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +2

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -3

39%

42%

9%

3%

2%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

LIB DEM

UKIP

GREEN

42%

40%

9%

2%

2%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

LIB DEM

UKIP

GREEN




Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election

2015 General Election

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May 1

5

Jun

15

Jul 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Jun

16

Jul 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 17

May 1

7

Jun

17

Jul 17

Au

g 1

7

Sep

17

Oct

17

No

v 1

7

Dec

17

Jan

18

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

04

Jul 04

Jan

05

Jul 05

Jan

06

Jul 06

Jan

07

Jul 07

Jan

08

Jul 08

Jan

09

Jul 09

Jan

10

Jul 10

Jan

11

Jul 11

Jan

12

Jul 12

Jan

13

Jul 13

Jan

14

Jul 14

Jan

15

Jul 15

Jan

16

Jul 16

Jan

17

Jul 17

Jan

18

2015 General Election

Miliband

elected

(Sept 10)

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)



Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – January ‘18

2005 General Election 2010 General Election

Cameron

elected

(Dec 05)

Brown

as PM

(June 07)

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM


SATISFACTION WITH THE

GOVERNMENT AND

PARTY LEADERS


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?

Theresa May

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,031 British adults 18+ 19th January – 23rd January 2018. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

28%

64%

9%

38%

55%

8%

38%

49%

14%

Jeremy Corbyn The Government

+5%swing from November 2017

-2%swing from November 2017

0%swing from November 2017

+2.5%swing from November 2017

-17 Net -11 Net -12 Net -36 Net

SATISFIED 38% SATISFIED 38% SATISFIED 25% SATISFIED 28%

DISSATISFIED 55% DISSATISFIED 49% DISSATISFIED 37% DISSATISFIED 64%

25%

37%

39%

Vince Cable


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER

/LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month.

Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Jan 2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

l 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 17

May 1

7

Ju

n 1

7

Ju

l 17

Au

g 1

7

Sep

17

Oct

17

No

v 1

7

Dec

17

Jan

18

MAY CORBYN CABLE

38%38%

25%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2018)

MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

May

Number of months after becoming Prime Minister


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …

PARTY?


Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2018)

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Hague (97-01) Duncan Smith (01-03) Howard (03-05) Cameron (05-10)

Blair (94-97) Miliband (10-15) Corbyn (15-present) Kinnock (83-92)

Foot (80-83) Smith (92-94)

Number of months after becoming Opposition Leader

Net

sati

sfact

ion

Corbyn


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,031 British adults 18+ 19th January – 23rd January 2018

Theresa May (satisfaction)

38%

55%

8%

January 2018 August 2016 – January 2018

SATISFIED 38%

DISSATISFIED 55%

DON’T KNOW 8%

Net = -17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 405 Conservative supporters 18+ , 19th January – 23rd January 2018

Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters)

76%

21%

3%

January 2018

SATISFIED 76%

DISSATISFIED 21%

DON’T KNOW 3%

Net = +55

August 2016 – January 2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


38%

49%

14%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

SATISFIED 38%

DISSATISFIED 49%

DON’T KNOW 14%

Net = -11

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?


Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

January 2018 September 2015 – January 2018

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


69%

21%

10%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

SATISFIED 69%

DISSATISFIED 21%

DON’T KNOW 10%

Net = +48

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 336 Labour supporters 18+ , 19th January – 23rd January 2018

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)

January 2018 September 2015 – January 2018

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

15Political Monitor | January 2018 | Final | Public

25%

37%

39%SATISFIED 25%

DISSATISFIED 37%

DON’T KNOW 39%

Net = -12

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


Vince Cable (satisfaction)

January 2018

Base: 1,031 British adults 18+ 19th January – 23rd January 2018

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

September 2017 – January 2018

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


20%

24%52%

4%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan

-07

May-0

7Ju

l-07

Sep

-07

Dec-

07

Feb

-08

Ap

r-08

Jun

-08

Au

g-0

8O

ct-0

8D

ec-

08

Feb

-09

Ap

r-09

Jun

-09

Au

g-0

9O

ct-0

9D

ec-

09

Feb

-10

Ap

r-10

Jun

-10

Sep

-10

No

v-1

0Ja

n-1

1M

ar-

11

May-1

1Ju

l-117

Sep

-11

No

v-1

1Ja

n-1

2M

ar-

12

May-1

2Ju

l-12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2Ja

n-1

3M

ar-

13

May-1

3Ju

l-13

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3Ja

n-1

4M

ar-

14

May-1

4

Jul-

14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4Ja

n-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb

-16

Ap

rl-1

6Ju

n-1

6A

ug

-16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

IMPROVE 20%

STAY THE SAME 24%

GET WORSE 52%

DON’T KNOW 4%

EOI = -32

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Economic Optimism Index

January 2018


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Slight increase in optimism since November 2017

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan

1998

May 1

998

Sep

1998

Jan

1999

May 1

999

Sep

1999

Jan

2000

May 2

000

Sep

2000

Jan

2001

May 2

001

Sep

2001

Jan

2002

May 2

002

Sep

2002

Jan

2003

May 2

003

Sep

2003

Jan

2004

May 2

004

Sep

2004

Jan

2005

May 2

005

Sep

2005

Jan

2006

May 2

006

Sep

2006

Jan

2007

May 2

007

Sep

2007

Jan

2008

May 2

008

Sep

2008

Jan

2009

May 2

009

Sep

2009

Jan

2010

May 2

010

Sep

2010

Jan

2011

May 2

011

Sep

2011

Jan

2012

May 2

012

Sep

2012

Jan

2013

May 2

013

Sep

2013

Jan

2014

May 2

014

Sep

2014

Jan

2015

May 2

015

Sep

2015

Jan

2016

May 2

016

Sep

2016

Jan

2017

May 2

017

Sep

2017

Jan

2018

-32


President Trump and

the Royal Wedding


Majority think Trump should not be invited to Royal Wedding –

though opposition falls if Obama is invited


Base: Split sampled- each question was asked of c.500 British adults 18+ 19th January – 23rd January 2018

23%

39%

69%

54%

Should be invited Should not be invited

As you may know, Prince Harry and Meghan Markle are going to get married in May. Looking forward

to the Royal Wedding:

Do you think that American President

Donald Trump should be, or should not be

invited to attend the wedding?

Do you think that American President

Donald Trump should be, or should not be

invited to attend the wedding if former

American President Barack Obama is

invited?

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

21

Ipsos MORIJanuary 2018 POLITICAL MONITOR

Ipsos MORI January 2018 Political Monitor

News & Politics

Transcript of Ipsos MORI January 2018 Political Monitor