Ipsos MORI Political Monitor April 2015

2015POLITICAL MONITOR

VOTINGINTENTIONS

Voting Intention:

All giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote”

Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 12th -15th April 2015, all certain to vote = 737

3HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

32%

35%

11%

8%

8%6%

All giving a voting intention: 84% All certain to vote: 68%

Conservative lead = -3 Conservative lead = -2

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

33%

35%

10%

8%

7%7%

3533

1087

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ap

r 03

Oct

03

Ap

r 04

Oct

04

Ap

r 05

Oct

05

Ap

r 06

Oct

06

Ap

r 07

Oct

07

Ap

r 08

Oct

08

Ap

r 09

Oct

09

Ap

r 10

Oct

10

Ap

r 11

Oct

11

Ap

r 12

Oct

12

Ap

r 13

Oct

13

Ap

r 14

Oct

14

Ap

r 15

Voting Intention: April ‘03 – April ’15

(all certain to vote)

Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through February 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter

4HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?


2005 General Election 2010 General Election

Cameron

elected

(Dec 05)

Brown

as PM

(June 07)

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM

How certain are Labour and Conservative supporters

in their intention to vote? Jan‘08 to April ‘15

5% OF SUPPORTERS “ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN TO VOTE”


CONSERVATIVE LABOUR

78%77%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Dec 0

7

Ap

r 08

Au

g 0

8

Dec 0

8

Ap

r 09

Au

g 0

9

Dec 0

9

Ap

r 10

Au

g 1

0

Dec 1

0

Ap

r 11

Au

g 1

1

Dec 1

1

Ap

r 12

Au

g 1

2

Dec 1

2

Ap

r 13

Au

g 1

3

Dec 1

3

Ap

r 14

Au

g 1

4

Dec 1

4

Ap

r 15

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

SATISFACTION WITH THECOALITION AND PARTY LEADERS

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM GOVERNMENT

+1.0%swing from March


-7.0%swing from March



-14 Net -19 Net -26 Net -31 Net -18 NetSATISFIED 39% SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 30% SATISFIED 27% SATISFIED 37%

DISSATISFIED 53% DISSATISFIED 52% DISSATISFIED 56% DISSATISFIED 58% DISSATISFIED 55%

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 12th – 15th April 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”

7HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER/LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/UKIP?


0

-100

+100

Satisfaction with Party leaders December ‘07 – April ‘15


8HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS

RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?


33%39%

27%30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Dec 0

7

Ap

r 08

Au

g 0

8

Dec 0

8

Ap

r 09

Au

g 0

9

Dec 0

9

Ap

r 10

Au

g 1

0

Dec 1

0

Ap

r 11

Au

g 1

1

Dec 1

1

Ap

r 12

Au

g 1

2

Dec 1

2

Ap

r 13

Au

g 1

3

Dec 1

3

Ap

r 14

Au

g 1

4

Dec 1

4

Ap

r 15

CAMERON BROWN MILIBAND CLEGG FARAGE

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers


9HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER?


CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Ne

t sa

tisfa

ctio

n

Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

David Cameron (satisfaction)

Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 12th – 15th April 2015

10ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?


39%

53%

7%

April 2015 April 2006 – April 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ma

r-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Jun

-07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Fe

b-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Fe

b-1

5


SATISFIED 39%

DISSATISFIED 53%

DON’T KNOW 7%

Net = -14

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)

Base: 280 Conservative supporters 18+, 12th -15th April 2015

11ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?


89%

10%1%


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ma

r 0

6

Nov 0

6

Se

p 0

7

Ma

y 0

8

De

c-0

8

Jul-

09

Fe

b-1

0

Dec-1

0

Jul-

11

Fe

b-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ap

r-13

Nov-1

3

14-J

un

Jan

-15


SATISFIED 89%

DISSATISFIED 10%

DON’T KNOW 1%

Net = +79

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2015)


12HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?


HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01)

Ne

t sa

tisfa

ctio

n

Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader


Ed Miliband (satisfaction)


13ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY ED MILIBAND IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?


33%

52%

15%

April 2015 October 2010 – April 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

SATISFIED 33%

DISSATISFIED 52%

DON’T KNOW 15%

Net = -19

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters)

Base: 296 Labour supporters 18+, 12th – 15th April 2015

14ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY ED MILIBAND IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?


April 2015 October 2010 – April 2015

60%

28%

12%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

SATISFIED 60%

DISSATISFIED 28%

DON’T KNOW 12

Net = +32

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Nick Clegg (satisfaction)


15ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NICK CLEGG IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ AS DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER?


27%

58%

14%

April 2015 January 2008 – April 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Dec-0

7M

ar-

08

Jun

-08

Se

p-0

8D

ec-0

8M

ar-

09

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9D

ec-0

9M

ar-

10

Jun

-10

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15


SATISFIED 27%

DISSATISFIED 58%

DON’T KNOW 14%

Net = -31

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)

Base: 76 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 12th – 15th April 2015. N.B. small base size indicative only

16ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NICK CLEGG IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ AS DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER?


56%35%

8%

April 2015 January 2008 – April 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Dec-0

7M

ar-

08

Jun

-08

Se

p-0

8D

ec-0

8M

ar-

09

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9D

ec-0

9M

ar-

10

Jun

-10

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15


SATISFIED 56%

DISSATISFIED 35%

DON’T KNOW 8%

Net = +21

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

Nov-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-

14

Se

p-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-1

5

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)


17ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?


30%

56%

15%



SATISFIED 30%

DISSATISFIED 56%

DON’T KNOW 15%

Net = -26

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Nigel Farage (satisfaction among UKIP supporters)

Base: 89 UKIP supporters, 12th -15th April 2015. N.B. small base size indicative only

18ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?


90%

1%8%


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

Nov-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-

14

Se

p-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-1

5


SATISFIED 90%

DISSATISFIED 1%

DON’T KNOW 8%

Net = +89

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

VOTINGDECISIONS

Have the voters decided yet?

Base: 879 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention, 12th -15th April 2015

20HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ LABOUR PARTY/ LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ GREENS/ UKIP/ SNP/PLAID CYMRU OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?


March 2015 April 2015

41%

56%

2%

38%

60%

2%

DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW

Have the voters decided yet? Trend

Base: 879 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention, 12th -15th April 2015

21HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ LABOUR PARTY/ LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ GREENS/ UKIP/ SNP/PLAID CYMRU OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?


43%47% 48%

56%60%56%

51% 50%

41%38%

2% 2% 2% 3% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Au

g2

01

4

Se

p2

01

4

Oct

201

4

No

v2

01

4

De

c2

01

4

Ja

n2

01

5

Feb

201

5

Ma

r2

01

5

Ap

r2

01

5

DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW

LEADERS

57%

51%

44%

47%

40%

56%

33%

24%

35%

50%

20%

45%

31%

24%

33%

46%

34%

31%

26%

17%

19%

33%

64%

43%

Leader Image – positive traits

23I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO…

DAVID CAMERON ED MILIBAND NIGEL FARAGE NICK CLEGG

Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 12th – 15th April 2015. Split sample for Farage (493) and Clegg (507) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

A capable leader

Understands the problems facing Britain

Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement

Has got a lot of personality

Has a clear vision for Britain

65%

44%

75%

42%

30%

58%

41%

38%

41%

42%

55%

62%

Leader Image –negative traits

24I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO…

DAVID CAMERON ED MILIBAND NIGEL FARAGE NICK CLEGG


Out of touch with ordinary people

More style than substance

Looks after some sections of society more than others

Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 12th – 15th April 2015. Split sample for Farage (493) and Clegg (507)

2015POLITICAL MONITOR

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor April 2015

News & Politics

Transcript of Ipsos MORI Political Monitor April 2015