Indicators for SMR Deployment and Economic Issues Documents/Workshop 12-… · Indicators for SMR...
Transcript of Indicators for SMR Deployment and Economic Issues Documents/Workshop 12-… · Indicators for SMR...
Indicators for SMR Deployment
and Economic Issues
Workshop on SMR Safety and Licensing Hammamet, Tunisia 12-15 December, 2017 David Shropshire IAEA Department of Nuclear Energy Planning & Economic Studies Section (PESS)
Agenda
• Energy Planning (SMRs)
• SMR Deployment and Economics
• Deployment Indicators for SMR adoption
• Prospects & Impediments
• Economics and Competitiveness
• Infrastructure Differences
• Summary
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Feedback provided to IAEA
“IAEA Member States can benefit from having tools
to help them assess the viability of using SMRs.”
“The conditions needed to support deployment of
SMRs are very similar to large NPPs. However,
discrimination is needed to define where SMRs are
unique to large plants and where they also fully
consider infrastructure and life-cycle requirements.”
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What sets SMRs apart from large NPPs?
Large Reactors (>700MWe) SMRs (<700MWe)
Slow to Deploy
Faster Construction
(factory produced modules)
Expensive to Build Smaller Capital Layout
(stagger construction)
Large Capacity
Small to Medium Capacity
(replace high-C plants)
Baseload Power
More Flexible Power
(demand-follow)
Electric Only Diverse applications, Non-Electric
(desalination, process heat)
Large EPZ Smaller EPZ allowing new siting
opportunities 4
IAEA is working to increase service to
Member States (MS) on SMRs
• Support MS through capacity building: • Economic Analysis
• Energy Planning Tools (MESSAGE)
• Nuclear Energy Projections (RDS#1)
• Nuclear Newcomer Feasibility Studies (F/S).
• Stay abreast of information and development related to demands for SMRs.
• Provide guidance to MS: 1) considering or embarking to use nuclear energy or; 2) expand nuclear capabilities using SMRs.
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IAEA has tools to help MS determine the
deployment potential for SMRs
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OUTPUT
MESSAGE
INPUT
Energy system
structure (including
vintage of plant and
equipment)
Base year energy
flows and prices
Energy demand
projections (MAED)
Technology and
resource options &
their techno-economic
performance profiles
Technical and
policy constraints
● Primary and final
energy mix
● Emissions and
waste streams
● Health and
environmental
impacts
(externalities)
● Resource use
● Land use
● Import dependence
● Investment
requirements
MESSAGE can identify potential shares for SMRs
in the energy mix Electricity Generation
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Yr
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MOXLWR/Electricity
AHWR/Electricity
HWR/Electricity
ALWRUOX/Electricity
LWRUOX/Electricity
Electricity Generation
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FR/Electricity
MOXLWR/Electricity
AHWR/Electricity
HWR/Electricity
ALWRUOX/Electricity
LWRUOX/Electricity
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Example
Case – 1 Example
Case - 2
Newcomer’s could evaluate SMRs as part
of IAEA’s Milestone Approach
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Role for
SMR’s??
SMR Deployment Indicators
• Purpose: Identify country conditions
generally favorable for using nuclear
power, and broad indicators for
deployment of SMRs
Deployment Indicators created to support
SMR Capacity Development in MS
Actions Measurements
Develop Methodology Quantifiable and objective, flexible
and extensible
Evaluate and select indicators
conducive to SMR deployment
Transparent, distinctive measures,
with broad applicable to nuclear
power and unique focus on SMRs
Identify and collect data Trusted and reliable sources, data
readily available
Create example use-cases Broad coverage of potential
applications
Define a process for country level
self-assessment
Flexible with adaptability to address
specific country needs
Develop Methodology Quantifiable and objective, flexible
and extensible 10
General Categories of Indicators
1. National Energy Demands
2. SMR Energy Demands
3. Financial/Economic
4. Physical Infrastructure
5. Climate Change
6. Energy Security
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Categories and Indicators
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National
Energy
Demands
SMR
Energy
Demands
Financial/
Economic
Sufficiency
Physical
Infrastructure
Sufficiency
Climate
Change
Motivation
Energy
Security
Motivation
Growth of
Economic
Activity
Dispersed
(Rural)
Energy
Ability to
Support New
Investments
Electric Grid
Capacity
Reduce Fossil
Fuel-Energy
Consumption
Reduce
Energy
Imports
Growth Rate
of Primary
Energy
Consumption
Co-
Generation
Openness to
International
Trade
Infrastructure
Conditions
Reduce CO2
Emissions per
Capita
Utilize
Domestic
Uranium
Resources
Per Capita
Energy
Consumption
Energy
Intensive
Industries
Fitness for
Investment
Land
Availability
Achieve NDC
Carbon
Reduction
Goals
Balance
Intermittent
Renewables
Indicators were selected that provide distinctive
measures (avoiding duplication)
Further Views on Baseline Study helps us
to narrow the focus
• Potential Roles for Deployment in Developing Countries
• Remote and niche applications (<300 MWe)
• Support limited-time energy demands
• Cogenerate electricity and heat for municipal and industrial applications
• Identify new applications and performance characteristics needing assessed from licensing and regulatory viewpoint.
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Key indicators for deploying SMRs
• Grid Compatibility
• Trans. losses, quality, remote locations, scaling
• Energy-Economics-Environment
• Growing market demand, energy stability and environment valued in prices
• Nuclear experience
• RR programs, country agreements (BOO-T)
• Energy Security and Reliability
• Import dependence, high reliability needed
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Prospects
• SMRs could be competitive with other energy
sources to supply electricity and steam to size-
appropriate industrial applications
• Advantageous to show that SMRs can be flexibly
used to support multiple purposes.
• SMRs could be used in countries lacking other
energy resources
• Transportable SMRs could open new markets.
• Potential for regional power partnerships
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Impediments
• Large NPPs are more economical for
desalination/district heating at large scale.
• Multi-module SMR are less likely to be
competitive with large NPP on price/unit.
• Potential siting issues when placing reactor
in proximity to industrial complex.
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Economic Competitiveness
• OECD Countries:
Reduced competiveness - more energy
choices and trading opportunities, subsidized
renewables, but less so for nuclear.
Increased competitiveness: - existing nuclear
infrastructure (regulators, etc.), SMR exports
scale production and reduce costs, provides
low-carbon means to meet NDC goals.
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Economic Competitiveness
• Developing/Newcomer Countries:
Reduced competiveness – High initial cost hurtle, domestic energy needs more quickly met by domestic fossil energy.
Increased competitiveness: - Modular capacity additions could support fast energy growth, SMRs provide competitive alternative to imported energy while providing energy security.
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Infrastructure Simplifications
• Fuel supply and take back could simplify
waste disposition requirements
• Plug and play reactors limit need for
domestic supply chain
• SMRs could avoid need for grid upgrades
and help reduce infrastructure needed to
support renewables
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Summary
• IAEA is engaged in extending energy capacity building to better account for the unique capabilities of SMRs.
• Feedback on the SMR Indicators help IAEA better understand how SMRs can meet country needs.
• IAEA works to enhance the ability of Member States to assess the deployment potential for SMRs.
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21 For inquiries, please contact:
David Shropshire <[email protected]>
… Thank you for your attention.
SMR Deployment Cases
Variety of conditions under which countries may
choose to deploy SMRs.
• Emerging Industrialized Economy, Large Land Area
• Emerging Industrialized Economy, Small Land Area
• Highly-Developed Infrastructure Economy
• Rapid Growth Economy
• Desalination
• SMR Vendor Country
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Power-sharing arrangements are possible, but
can be particularly complex
• Less experienced partners would need to
develop requisite expertise or partner with a
more experienced country
• Some Issues: financing, lending
prerequisites, changes to national laws to
comply with international treaties, global
safety and security standards.
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