NATE HEGYI

DESIGN PORTFOLIO

PUBLICATIONS & REPORTS

FIVE YEAR COMPREHENSIVE ALCOHOL ABUSE REPORTTHE BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH

AUGUST 2011

Evaluation of Implementation and Outcomes: Montana Strategic Prevention Framework – State Improvement Grant and the Montana Community Change Project

August 2011

Final Report

Stephen Seninger, Ph. D.Principal Investigator and Director of Analysis and EvaluationDaphne Herling, MSWDirector of Community ProcessEvaluation and Coordinator/Facilitatorof Epidemiological Workgroup

REPORT FOR The Strategic Prevention Framework - State Incentive Grant

This project is funded under a contract with the Montana Department of Public Health and Human Services. Statements and conclusions in this report do not necessarily reflect the position of the Department

ECONOMIC

BUREAU OFBUSINESS

RESEARCHAND

2011 TRANSPLAN SURVEYTHE BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH

AUGUST 2011

2011 TranPlan 21 Public Involvement Survey

VOLUME IREPORT

SUBMITTED BYBureau of Business and Economic ResearchThe University of Montana–MissoulaSeptember 2011

THE STATE OF MONTANA MANUFACTURINGMONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY MONTANA MANUFACTURING EXTENSION CENTER, THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH

MAY 2011

WINNERASSOCIATION FOR UNIVERSITY BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH EXCELLENCE IN PUBLICATIONS AWARD, 2011

2011 Edition

The State of

Montana Manufacturing

BYPaul Polzin, Emeritus DirectorBureau of Business and Economic ResearchThe University of MontanaMissoula, MT 59812

ECONOMIC

BUREAU OFBUSINESS

RESEARCHAND

6The State of Montana Manufacturing

Table 2Gross Domestic Product (GDP), United States(Billions of Chained 2005 Dollars)

Year Gross Domestic Product Manufacturing Percent

of Total

1997 9,847,068 1,186,481 12.01998 10,275,885 1,245,770 12.11999 10,767,451 1,312,715 12.22000 11,223,130 1,396,514 12.42001 11,364,239 1,332,119 11.72002 11,560,341 1,365,339 11.82003 11,807,823 1,404,830 11.92004 12,212,645 1,517,861 12.42005 12,554,538 1,568,037 12.52006 12,895,854 1,636,594 12.72007 13,144,067 1,690,414 12.92008 13,101,207 1,608,640 12.32009 12,781,190 1,469,701 11.5

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Manufacturing and the U.S. Economy

Manufacturing continues as a major component of the U.S. economy, but many of the trends depend crucially on

the data chosen to measure them. This section looks at manufacturing as measured by real GDP (which represents real output and production) and finds that it has grown over the past decade and remained a stable component of the U.S. economy. Later sections of this report will look at manufacturing employment and labor income and different trends will emerge.

Price adjusted GDP for manufacturing and all industries is presented in Table 2. Manufacturing GDP rose from $1.2 trillion (2005$) in 1997 to $1.5 trillion (2005$) in 2009, an average annual growth rate of 1.8 percent per year. This average growth rate rises to about 3.6 if the two years of decline in 2008 and 2009 are eliminated.

Manufacturing’s share of GDP remained relatively stable at about 12 percent between 1997 and 2009. This figure dropped slightly during the recession years

of 2001 and 2002 but rose during the recovery period of 2003 to 2007. Manufacturing’s contribution started to decline again during the recession years of 2008 and 2009. This lack of trend is partially due to the differences between the price indices for manufacturing and those for other goods and services. The price indices for manufacturing have risen much slower than most of the others. Similar calculations for nominal (non-deflated) data show a continuous downward trend in manufacturing’s share of GDP.

The Great Recession is significantly impacting manufacturing. As shown in Table 2, manufacturing real GDP declined in both 2008 and 2009. Overall, the decrease from 2007 to 2009 was about 13.0 percent. In comparison, during the 2001 recession manufacturing real GDP dropped about 4.6 percent during only one year and regained its pre-recession level in slightly more than two years. Current forecasts predict that it will be mid 2012 before manufacturing regains its 2007 peak.

3The State of Montana Manufacturing

4 Introduction

6 Manufacturing and the U.S. Economy

7 Manufacturing and the Montana Economy

11 A Closer Look at Montana Manufacturing

11 Manufacturing Establishments

11 Employment Size

12 Composition of Manufacturing

13 Manufacturing Employment

14 Employment by Industry

15 Labor Income by Industry

16 Manufacturing Labor Income

18 Employment and Per Worker Wages and Salaries

19 Manufacturing Exports

Contents

Indicators- County -Base Year

2000

- County -Current Year

- State -Current Year

ECONOMIC STATUS

Families with children receiving benefits through TANF (Temporary Assistance to Needy Families), FY 2010

SNAP3 participants of all ages (monthly average), FY2010

Children enrolled in Pre-Kindergarten through 12th grade who are eligible for free/reduced-price lunch, academic year 2009-2010

Children receiving Best Beginnings scholarships4, FY2010

HEALTH AND HEALTH INSURANCE

Births to mothers receiving prenatal care starting during 1st trimester (as percent of all births), 2005-2009

Children ages 0-17 enrolled in Medicaid (monthly average), FY2010

Children ages 0-18 enrolled in Montana’s Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) (monthly average), FY2010

EDUCATION

Public, private, and home school enrollment (K-12), academic year 2009-10

Public Pre-Kindergarten enrollment, academic year 2009-10

Special education enrollment, academic year 2009-10

SAFETY

Juvenile referral rate for all crimes (ages 10-17; per 1,000 juveniles), 2009

Juvenile referrals for all crimes (ages 10-17), 2009

Referrals for drug offenses (as percent of all referrals)

Referrals for violent offenses (as percent of all referrals)

Indicator- County -Base Year

2000

- County -Current Year

- State -Current Year

DEMOGRAPHICS

County population (all ages), 2009

Population change, 2000-2009

County population under age 18, 2009

Children under age 5

Children ages 5-13

Children ages 14-17

County population under age 20 by race/ethnicity, 2009

White alone

American Indian/Alaska Native alone

Hispanic/Latino

Median age in years, 2009

Indicator 2000 2009 Current Trend

Median household income

Unemployment rate

Children under 18 in poverty (below 100% FPL)1

Infant mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)

Babies born at low birth-weight (as percent of all births)

Births to teens (as percent of all births)

High school event drop-out rate2

Motor vehicle crashes with driver under 18

‡ = Less than 10 reported cases.1 The Federal Poverty Level guidelines can be found on p.9. 100% of FPL for a family of four was $22,050 in 2009.2 The high school drop-out rate lags one year behind enrollment data and is for academic year 2008-09.3 SNAP (Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program) has taken the place of the Food Stamps Program, administered by the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture. The program itself has not changed.4 Unduplicated total.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Montana Dept. of Public Health & Human Services; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Montana Dept. of Labor & Industry; Montana Office of Public Instruction; Montana Dept. of Transportation; Montana Board of Crime Control. For contact information see Data Sources and Notes on p. 70.

2010 Montana Kids Count 21

At a Glance...

Chouteau CountyPopulation: 5,167County Seat: Fort BentonHouse Districts 28, 29, and 32, Senate Districts 14, 15, and 16

$30,365 $40,588 Better

2.6% 3.7% Worse

13% 21% Worse

0.0 N/A –

5% 6% Worse

8% 7% Better

0% 0% –

30 ‡ Better

‡ ‡ 3,711

144 275 109,330

318 302 56,504

17 ‡ 10,959

85% 64% 76%

84 150 55,070

64 106 18,047

958 652 141,807

0 ‡ 1,209

115 84 17,213

N/A 40.6 82.1

26 26 8,293

27% 0% 9%

N/A 4% 13%

5,970 5,167 974,989

-14% 8%

1,721 1,113 219,828

386 239 62,438

905 536 105,683

430 338 51,707

1,870 1,279 248,573

1,363 914 209,484

475 336 24,468

25 15 12,625

39 47 39

2010 MONTANA KIDS COUNT DATA BOOKMONTANA KIDS COUNT, THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH

OCTOBER 2010

Take the time to learn about business as you would another culture, by trying to understand their language and customs in order to work

more effectively together. Framing partnership efforts to emphasize what businesses can get out of their involvement can help you get the best thinking and commitment from your business partners.

Nothing is more off-putting to businesses than meetings full of early childhood process and jargon. Businesses tend to make decisions quickly and business partners will likely not understand early childhood

Tip 4:Understand Business Culture and Avoid Jargon

This... Could be this...

Makes sense. Let me bring it up with a friend of mine at

the Chamber tomorrow.

Hmm... Maybe next year.

THINKS: This could help our employees and our

company image.

THINKS: They’ve got to be kidding. Who would sit through those long

meetings where you never know what they might be

talking about? Dream on…

Business BusinessEarly Childhood Leader

Early Childhood Leader

We need your help to raise our state Medicaid cap and CCDF match from DPHHS. We also need more business people on our task force.

If Montana could raise more matching funds, we could generate more federal dollars and more of your employee’s kids’ might be able to get help with health care and child care costs. Do you think the Chamber might put it on their legislative agenda?

acronyms. Be clear and ready to act when you invite business to the table.

It is equally important to understand that businesses can be cautious about new commitments. This reluctance may be daunting to those unfamiliar with the business climate. It pays to do your homework, talking to key leaders who can help you understand a company’s history and style of involvement. Building trust takes time. Once a compelling argument is made and a connection to a business is developed, businesses move fast and they will expect you to keep up with them.

Rat

e of

ret

urn

to in

vest

men

t in

hum

an c

apit

al

Age

Programs targeted towards earliest years

0-3 4-5preschool

School Post-school

Preschool programs

Schooling

Job training

Rates of Return to Human Capital Investment at Different Ages: Return to an Extra Dollar at Various Ages

www.heckmanequation.orgSource: U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

TIPS FOR MONTANA BUSINESS LEADERSMONTANA KIDS COUNT, THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH

FEBRUARY 2011

Family-Friendly

Workplaces

A Guide for Montana Businesses

Brought to you by Montana KIDS COUNT

5

Increased Work/Family Conflict

Most Montana employers recognize the importance of family life to their employees. But many do not think about how they can help employees achieve an improved work-life balance. Nor do they consider the positive impact this balance will have on the company's bottom line. Today, the average parent loses eight days of work every year because of child care problems. Lost days add up to lost productivity. Parents who are secure about their child care are less likely to miss work or lose focus on the job.

The cost of providing child care combined with relatively low wages creates conflict and challenges for Montana workers. More businesses are opting to create family-friendly options to attract and retain workers and improve the productivity of their workforce.

15%

Children ages 5-8 in need

of child care31,300

$0

$4,000

$8,000

$12,000

$16,000

$20,000

A person working full

time earning

minimum wage in

2008 made about

$13,300

Federal Poverty Line, $22,050*

-$4,300

More than 16,000 Montana families are working

but still live in poverty.

Parents pay most of early care and education program costs.

Private sector expenditure

for early childhood is about

4% of the total.

Government Funding

39%

Parental

Expenditures57%

Source: Dichter, H. Duplessis, A. Logan, L. & Stoney L. Strengthening Market-Based Early Care and Education Services for Low-Income Families. Partners in Early Childhood and Economic Development Conference., November 2009.* Federal Poverty Guideline for 3 persons in a family or household, 2008.

A GUIDE FOR MONTANA BUSINESSESSPIRAL BOUND, HALF SIZE LANDSCAPE BOOKLET

MONTANA KIDS COUNT, THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCHOCTOBER 2010

39 South Central

South CentralMontana and Wyoming

There are estimated to be 65,100 in the available labor force in the 12 counties of Montana and 3 counties of Wyoming which make up the south central Montana labor market region. 33,800 of available workers, slightly more than half, are male. 46.4 percent of available workers were aged 25-44 years, compared to the 40.3 percent share of workers in the same age group in the statewide available labor pool.

In many other respects, the profile of the available labor force in south central Montana is virtually identical to the state average: 25.3 percent have a college degree (versus the 25.9 percent state average), 62.4 percent restricted their job considerations to a 20 mile commute distance (59.5 percent

for the state), 63 percent said they were working in their chosen fields (62.9 percent for the state), and 87.6 percent said health insurance was very important in determining an attractive job (83.3 percent was the statewide average).

14 percent of the available work force, or 9300 workers, are in households with income greater than $100,000 per year. The available labor pool is more dominated by longer term residents, with 65 percent having lived in the region 10 years or more. Information and computer technology, energy production, and teaching and education fields were the most frequently mentioned by the available workforce as areas where training was most desirable.

Judith Basin, Fergus, Petroleum, Wheatland, Golden Valley, Musselshell, Park, Sweet Grass, Stillwater, Carbon, Yellowstone, Bighorn, Sheridan (WY), Johnson (WY),

and Cambell (WY) counties

THE AVAILABLE LABOR SUPPLY IN MONTANA’S LABOR MARKETSMONTANA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AND INDUSTRY, THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH

FEBRUARY 2011

A GUIDE FOR MONTANA BUSINESSESSPIRAL BOUND, HALF SIZE LANDSCAPE BOOKLET

MONTANA KIDS COUNT, THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCHOCTOBER 2010

POSTERS

BITTER CRANETHE BADLANDER, MISSOULA, MT

SEPTEMBER 2011

A NEW PROJECT FROM MEMBERS OF WARTIME BLUES

ANTIOQUIA #1SEAFARER ENTERTAINMENT, PHILADELPHIA, PA

AUGUST 2011

THURSDAY

AUGUST 2THUNDERBIRD

$5 ADV$7 DOOR

TICKETS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.SEAFARERENTERTAINMENT.COM

ANTIOQUIA #2SEAFARER ENTERTAINMENT, PHILADELPHIA, PA

AUGUST 2011

ANTIOQUIAANTIOQUIATUESDAY \ AUGUST 2 at \ THE THUNDERBIRD

$5 ADV \ $7 DOSTickets Avail Online at

www.seafarerentertainment.com

WHITEWATER RAMBLETOP HAT, MISSOULA, MT

AUGUST 2011

milk drive

whitewaterramble(high Octane rOcky mOuntain dancegrass frOm cO)

(austin alt-fOlk)

with

AUG.5FRIDAY

21+$10 ADV$12 DOS

Tickets available at www.seafarerentertainment.com & Ear Candy

DOORS OPEN AT 930SHOW BEGINS AT 10

seafarer entertainment Presents

TOPHAT

WINTER IN THE BLOOD FILM PROMOTIONAL POSTERCAITLIN HOFMEISTER, MISSOULA, MT

JULY 2011

winter in the blood

JAMES McMURTRYTOP HAT, MISSOULA, MT

JULY 2011

TOP HAT PROMOTIONAL POSTERTOP HAT, MISSOULA, MT

JUNE 2011

31MAY Tuesday

2

1

3JUNE

JUNE

JUNEThursday

Wednesday

Friday6-8 p.m.family friendly

Claude Bourbon

Hobo Nephews

Broken

Reid PerryUncle Frank

ValleyRoadshow

of

(Medieval & Spanish blues)$3 @ 10 p.m.

(Rootsy Dylan Blues from MN)

(git-fiddle pickin’, hoover style)microbrews $3

TOP HATCOMING TO THE

DANGER BEARTOP HAT, MISSOULA, MT

MAY 2011

DANGERBEARfriday may 206-8pm top hatfamily friendly

WARTIME BLUES #1OLD POST, MISSOULA, MT

MAY 2011

wartime blues is playing a free show at the old post friday, may 13th around 8:00.

wartime bluesold post

friday, may 138:00 p.m

freeoutside

WARTIME BLUES #2BADLANDER, MISSOULA, MT

MAY 2011

WARTIMEBLUESwith

SICK KIDS XOXO

Friday, May 27Badlander

Tickets are $5

BUTTERTOP HAT, MISSOULA, MT

APRIL 2011

Album ReleaseFri., April 29th@ Top Hatw. Jail Beethoven!6 – 8 p.m. (early show)$5Kid Friendly

butter.