EU Foreign Policy

Overview January 2017

EU Foreign Policy Research Group

Dear Readers,

January 2017 was greatly influenced by the beginning of the presidency of Donald J. Trump. After his

unexpected victory in November elections, the feeling of uncertainty has been prevailing. Some of the statements of the

president-elect suggested that US foreign policy might face a major turn, for example in the case of relations with Russia

or China. Even after Donald Trump was sworn in the office on 20th January, the uncertainty persists. Aggressive and

unexpected decisions taken in the first weeks of his presidency did not alleviate distress or even confirmed some fears.

The European Union is one of the entities that has reasons to closely observe this situation. The US – EU

relations could face numerous problems as topics important from the point of view of the EU, such as free trade, climate

change or human rights are a subject of neglect for Mr. Trump. These and many other issues, including as vital ones as

the importance of NATO, can produce major disagreements between the so-far strategic partners. As a result, European

leaders have been rather sceptical about Donald Trump’s presidency and currently are trying to understand his goals and

maintain mutual relations on the strategic level.

In our January EU Foreign Policy Overview, many researchers decided to bring up this topic and assess its

influence on the region of their expertise and indirectly on the EU as a whole. Is the strategic transatlantic partnership in

a danger? Will China fill in the gap created by the US withdrawal from trade deals and international agreements? What

can the closer Russia – USA cooperation mean for Europe?

These and many other problems are considered in our second publication. We hope that it will invite you to

look at the EU foreign policy and role in the world from a wider, global perspective.

Kinga Jaromin

Head of EU Foreign Policy

Research Group

Contents

5 Africa

7 Australia and Oceania

9 China and East Asia

11 Middle East and North Africa

13 Russia and Eastern Europe

15 Turkey and Caucasus

17 United States of America

19 Western Balkans 21 References

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Balázs

Kele

Africa

Since the end of colonisation, African states have been struggling to become

a part of the globalised world. Long-term statistics, such as the Fragile State

Index Decade Trends, demonstrate that most of the African countries

stagnate in this effort, at least from the point of human rights protection as

many of the improvements are elusive. Internal tensions, such as ethnic or

religious grievances are common on the continent, even in Nigeria and

South Africa, which aspire to the leading role in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The presence of the EU military or civil-military missions will be continued

in 2017 in many countries where tensions seem to be permanent. In northern

Mali, since the 2012 uprising, low-intensity violence between the

government, Islamists and separatists continues. Lately, a suicide bombing

in a military camp resulted in numerous casualties from governmental forces

(CNN, 2017a). The situation is similar in Somalia, where attacks of the

Islamist militant group al-Shabaab, such as the bombing of a downtown

hotel in Mogadishu, are recently on the rise (Al Jazeera, 2017). In the

Central African Republic, tensions between Muslim and Christian

communities and different rebel groups are also long lasting. Expectedly, the

EU is going to extend the operations in these aforementioned countries, as

the situation will not ameliorate in the immediate future. Especially France

is one of the biggest advocates of the EU involvement in Africa due to

special relations with its former colonies, and it puts pressure on those EU

countries, which do not want to engage in the region.

Several other Sub-Saharan states are struggling with instability. In Sudan

and South Sudan clashes between rebels and governmental forces are

common, while peace deals are often violated by both sides (Sudan Tribune,

2017). Peaceful power transitions are rare in the continent. Numerous

leaders cling to their positions, which also causes tensions during elections.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo president Joseph Kabila finally seems

to accept the necessity to step down as opposition urged him to do so, but on

the other hand, it has just increased fear and uncertainty in the country

(Africa News, 2016). The EU and the international community should

consider acting in such circumstances and assisting in the stabilisation

processes of the country. Such action would be required also in East Congo,

where low-intensity crisis aggravates the life of local people. Possible future

scenarios are also negative in Zimbabwe, as president Robert Mugabe will

not step down voluntarily.

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China and East Asia A case of power transition could open Zimbabwe to the world, including the

EU, as currently Mugabe clearly pursues anti-Western foreign policy. In the

Gambia, president Yahya Jammeh lost the elections to his opponent Adama

Barrow, but decided to stay in power. Finally, the lawful president seized the

power with the help of Senegalese army (CNN, 2017b).

A good counter-example could be Nigeria, where power transition from

former president Jonathan Goodluck to the President Muhammadu Buhari

was relatively peaceful. However, Nigeria is still struggling with Biafra

region separatism in the Niger delta and Boko Haram insurgency in the

north. In January the Nigerian air force accidentally bombed a refugee camp

in Borno region (instead of the Islamist insurgents), which clearly indicates

the incompetence of the Nigerian forces (CNN, 2017c). For this important

oil exporter, low oil prices are a clear obstacle to the prosperity, narrowing

down the room for a manoeuvre for President Buhari.

BRICS member, South Africa has also internal problems as the public

support for the ruling party; African National Congress dwindled into

nothing due to the weak and slow economic recovery.

Moreover, in January, Morocco rejoined the African Union and after a

lengthy procedure Chadian diplomat, Moussa Faki Mahamat was elected an

African Union Commission chairperson. As Chad is a former French colony,

the election of Moussa Faki could be seen as a promising sign for France

and for the EU.

To sum up, the prospects of Sub-Saharan states are far from perfect and it

seems that 2017 will be another difficult year, just like previous decades.

The EU has relatively good chances to tighten relations with African

states; however, the economic cooperation between the two is already very

tight. On the other hand, the EU is still struggling to regain its political

influence over the region from Asian powers. The loss of political

influence could be explained by the strength of the competitors, such as

China and India, but partly it could be seen as a weakness of the EU

caused by the lack of political unity.

Jakob McKernan

Australia and

Oceania

Given the way in which Donald Trump fought his election campaign, it is no

great surprise that his first week in office was as haphazard and antagonistic

as it has proven to be. While the resulting chaos has predominately been felt

in Mexico, the Middle East and in Europe, President Trump’s apparent effort

to do away with the norms that have governed the post war global order have

also been felt in the Oceania region. The fashion in which the newly elected

President conducted his first telephone conversation with Australian Prime

Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, was particularly notable in this regard.

Accordingly, governments, policy makers and stakeholders in the region

have focused their attention firmly on developments in Washington over the

last month.

That being said, January did see a number of developments in regard to

European interests, particularly in relation to the prospective free trade

agreement with New Zealand. At the beginning of the month, New Zealand

Prime Minister Bill English travelled to Europe to meet EU leaders, as well

as Prime Minister May and Chancellor Merkel. Although Brexit and the

election of Trump inevitably cast a shadow over the trip, the focus was

firmly on beginning FTA negotiations. The fact that English, rather

unusually, met with all EU leaders - Tusk, Juncker and Schulz - speaks to the

desire of both sides to conclude a deal quickly. And with the US now having

formally pulled out of TPP negotiations, an FTA with the EU will only

become more attractive for New Zealand.

The announcement that a general election will take place on the 23rd of

September capped a busy first month for English in the Prime Minister role.

Although there is a considerable anti-trade fringe in New Zealand politics,

there is a broad consensus among the mainstream that open trading regimes

are in New Zealand’s interests. Accordingly, should the incumbent National

Part fail to retain its position following the election, the FTA negotiations are

unlikely to be put in jeopardy.

Prime Minister of Vanuatu, Charlot Salwai, was also welcomed in Brussels

for the 4th Enhanced Political Dialogue between the EU and Vanuatu. The

Prime Minister met with President Juncker and with Commissioner Miguel

Arias Canete and Neven Mimica.

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Although talks chiefly focused on short-term visa waivers and tax reform,

there was also a joint recognition that negotiations on a replacement for the

Cotonou Agreement (the treaty which frames EU – ACP relations) should

include areas such as climate change, sustainable development and disaster

risk reduction. How these negotiations play out over the next couple of years

will largely determine the nature of the EU’s relationship with the region and

as such should remain a priority.

While Donald Trump’s erratic foreign policy and the start of Brexit

negotiations are likely to capture European attention in the short term, the EU

should not fail to grasp the opportunities available in the Oceania region. The

rapid conclusion of an FTA with New Zealand would not only serve its

economic interests but would also offer a reminder that EU remains a trade

super power in an increasingly protectionist world. Similarly, the upcoming

negotiations for a post-2020 ACP – EU agreement offer an excellent

opportunity for the EU to demonstrate that it can have a significant impact on

the issues that will dominate global affairs over the coming decades; most

prominently climate change and global economic development.

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Evelyn

Shi

China and

East Asia

The event of Donald Trump being sworn in as the 45th President of the

United States has marked the month of January across the whole world. This

fact can have a significant impact on China and other East Asian countries as

Mr. Trump appears to perceive China as the main competitor with the USA,

especially in the sphere of economics and he attempts to challenge it. Some

examples of such approach include threatening to impose tariffs on Chinese

imports or questioning the One China policy through a phone call conducted

in December with Taiwan’s leader Tsai Ing-wen.

As a result, Chinese leaders have been criticising the US administration for

putting China’s policies into question and urging that a “trade war” would

bring no winners. It seems that they are doing everything to avoid a conflict

with Trump; they have even banned online “unauthorised criticism” of him.

This strategy seems successful, as there are signs that President Trump has

expressed his wish of a “constructive relationship” with China in a letter to

President Xi Jinping when extending his greetings ahead of the Lantern

Festival.

However, such gestures cannot be overinterpreted because Trump's

presidency already is characterised by major unpredictability. Tensions

about both the South China Sea as well as about the East China Sea may

arise again since Trump is strengthening the alliance with Japan and South

Korea. It could deteriorate the relationship between China and Japan

regarding, for example, the disputed Senkaku islands. Trump’s Secretary of

Defense, James Mattis, even vowed that the US would defend Japan’s

position in this conflict. Nevertheless, even here, the bonding will is

uncertain, since Trump has threatened to subtract his troops from this

territory if Japan does not contribute a higher cost for hosting US bases

within its borders. Nonetheless, this alliance would be very much welcomed

by Japan and South Korea, since they see their security at stake due to the

dominant positions of North Korea and China in the nuclear field. Seoul has

already agreed to deploy the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-

missile system and Mattis is seeking to strengthen this alliance while South

Korea is still struggling with the aftermath of the corruption scandal with

President Park Guen-hye.

Furthermore, the danger of a “monetary war” also arises. Last year, the

Chinese currency had to consider a major devaluation.

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China and East Asia Despite all the allegations of Trump, it was not a deliberate move but

rather a necessity of market economy. However, if the US decides to

degrade its currency on purpose (which might happen, because of the late-

night call to his National Security Adviser when Trump asked for advice

whether the US wanted a weak or a strong Dollar), other global players

(such as the EU) would also have to take actions, and the Euro would be at

stake.

As a result, the credibility of the US is fading by Trump’s unpredictability of

always changing his foreign policy positions and unorthodox diplomatic

moves. Although President Trump’s actions seem rather imprudent and

impulsive at first sight, the motives in the background should not be

underestimated. The decision to abandon the Trans-Pacific Partnership

(TPP) may be less a product of a populist thought but rather an attempt to

renegotiate the rules of trade deals with the region in favour of the USA.

Anyway, by cancelling the TPP negotiations, Trump has made the US a very

trust-unworthy strategic partner, meaning that China could expand its

domain of influence in the region, as the dismayed US-allies inevitably seek

for a more reliable trade partner. As a result, China might be empowered to

carry forward its Belt and Road Initiative, precisely by inviting the TPP

member states to join the Beijing-supported Regional Comprehensive

Economic Partnership, a free trade agreement that is now negotiated

between the ASEAN countries and their trading partners.

In such an antagonising situation, China's relations with the European

Union are on a good track. President Xi Jinping’s visit to

the Davos summit has had positive effects on the view of EU countries

towards China. Many European leaders, such as the EU trade

commissioner Cecilia Malmström, often quote his commitment to the

importance of globalisation and the principles of regulated trade. To

further boost openness and globalisation, Malmström proposed that both

China and the EU should continue with the reform agenda by bilateral

investment talks to pave the way to enter each other’s market on fair terms.

In addition, the current President of the French Republic Hollande praised

China’s effort in environmental protection and welcomed its economic

strategy.

Now, that the British House of Commons has backed the government by

voting in favour of the Brexit, the UK is likely to trigger Article 50, which

would initiate negotiations for future trade agreements. The UK seem to

tend towards trade agreements with the major trading powers, as May

visited the US not long ago and is planning to also pay China a visit this

year. China believes that negotiations with the UK will lead to a “win-win

deal”. In fact, the ancient trading Silk Road has already been revived; the

first train is on its 16-days-route from China to the UK, fully loaded with

imports from China.

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Stefan

Pfalzer

Middle East and

North Affrica

On January 15, French Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Marc Ayrault hosted

the Conference for peace in the Middle East in Paris as a part of the Middle

East Peace Initiative to stress the urgency of a resumption of negotiations

between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. The European Union was

present at the conference, unlike Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and

saw a document passed that welcomed the UN Security Council (UNSC)

resolution 2334 of December 23, 2016, which underlines the importance of a

two-state solution and calling for an end of Israeli settlements (Diplomatie,

2017).

Developments later last month then made clear how limited the influence of

the EU and the international community is with regard to the Israeli-

Palestinian conflict as Israel ordered the construction of 566 new settlements

in East Jerusalem, disregarding the UNSC resolution 2334 and the outcome

document of the Paris conference (Le Monde, 2017). A further 3000

settlements in the West Bank were then approved by the Israeli government

in late January (Fisher and Kershner, 2017). The EU's efforts are undermined

by the fact that Israel bases its actions on US support of which it has recently

been assured after talks between Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu

and designated US president Donald Trump. Could the EU emancipate itself

and assume a more decisive role in the Middle East?

In the current volatility of affairs caused by the beginning of the Trump

administration, the EU has lost some of its influence in the Middle East

since Trump's statements have given reasons to doubt the future of the

transatlantic partnership. Subsequently, Russia seems to have filled the

power vacuum, as evidenced by the conference on Syria taking place in

Astana, Kazakhstan, sponsored by Russia, Iran and Turkey. For the first time

since the beginning of the civil war, rebel forces took part in peace

negotiations. The outcome agreement under which the sponsors commit to

limit violations of the ceasefire negotiated in December 2016 was signed

neither by the Syrian government nor the opposition (Wintour, 2017a).

Regardless of the outcome, it is remarkable that not only enemies within

Syria joined the negotiation table, but also that Turkey assumed sponsorship,

an indication of rapprochement between Erdogan and Putin. The alliance

also brings about the emancipation of Iran, much to the displeasure of

Western powers.

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China and East Asia Boris Johnson, UK Foreign Secretary, has recently spoken out against an

increase of Iranian influence in the region. Moreover, he has conceded that

Syrian president Bashar al-Assad should be allowed to run for re-election

and mentioned the UK's willingness to join Russia in the fight against the

so-called Islamic State (Wintour, 2017b).

This change of policy comes as a surprise and would have been unthinkable

only weeks ago, as the UK has been critical of Russia's involvement in the

Syrian civil war. Could this lead to a change of the course for the EU's Syria

policy? So far, the EU has hesitated to embark on any Russian-led initiative.

The UK's motives to approach Russia may well be incentivized by the

prospect of a stronger partnership with the US after Brexit and recent

statements — such as the ones made by Johnson — could thus be interpreted

as an adoption of President Trump's rapprochement towards Russia. The

EU's commitment to rally key players like Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia for

post-conflict preparations in Syria could give rise to renewed tensions as a

Russian-Turkish alliance could further burden relations between both of

those countries and the EU.

On January 27, President Trump signed an executive order imposing a ban

for citizens of Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, Iraq, Iran and Syria. Of the

countries affected, only Iran countered with comparable measures and itself

imposed a travel ban for US citizens. Three days later, Iran launched a

medium-range ballistic missile test which was decisively condemned by the

US and called it a breach of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal and of UNSC

resolution 2231 called a breach of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal and of

UNSC resolution 2231 which calls on Iran to desist from testing missiles

capable of carrying a nuclear weapon (Aljazeera 2017).

While Russia said that the test did not violate the resolution, statements of

EU representatives also displayed mild formulations. This could hint at the

EU's motive to keep Iran integrated into the international community and not

to ruin possible EU-Iran cooperation concerning energy trade agreements

and in the fight against the so-called Islamic State. The EU's reaction likely

mirrors a certain interest, as the reaction to the Iranian missile launch in

April 2016 exemplifies as well.

Iran's motive for the missile launch, however, remains doubtful. While Iran's

intention to threaten Israel might not be the answer, since medium-range

ballistic missiles would not suffice to reach Israeli territory, the test could be

seen as a reaction to naval manoeuvres carried out by US, UK and French

warships near the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf (Merrill 2017).

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Kinga

Jaromin

Russia and

Eastern Europe

The month of January, although did not bring any significant change to the

EU – Russia relations, witnessed at least two major events which may

influence both entities in the close future. One of them was a beginning of

“Syria peace talks” in Astana on January 23rd which is a product of close

Russia – Turkey cooperation and is supposed to demonstrate that Russia is a

strong player in the Middle East and therefore globally. The talks started

with difficulties and are not expected to produce any positive outcome in the

short-term, nonetheless, they can be used by Russia as a success story and a

tool to undermine the position of the “weak West”, including the EU.

The second event also does not directly concern the EU but it already has a

significant impact on the world. On 20th January, Donald J. Trump has

become a 45th president of the United States, vowing in his campaign for

improving relations with Russia. In January Russian public media (e.g.

Piervyj Kanal) conducted a strong pro-Trump campaign, denouncing

President Barack Obama and accusing him of deteriorating relations with

Russia. Anti-Americanism, so common and widespread in the last years and

enforced by the Russian propaganda machine, now has been calmed down as

Russia seeks to improve relations with the country under Mr. Trump’s lead.

It may impact the EU directly, as Anti-Americanism could be replaced with

Anti-Europeanism, especially in an event of a growing criticism of the EU

leaders towards Trump and their assurances of a strong position against

Russia because of its involvement in Ukraine. This may be especially the

case before upcoming elections in some European countries (like the

Netherlands and France or later Germany) which Russia might try to impact

in order to ensure an outcome favourable to lifting EU sanctions.

The same goal, at least a secondary one, may push Russia to a growing

engagement in the Middle East. After a success of Syrian truce (which

Astana talks are a second phase of), Russia feels emboldened to increase the

influence in the region. On 20th of January, it signed a long-term agreement

with Syria, strengthening military presence in Tartus and near Latakia.

Moreover, it has developed stronger relations with Khalifa Haftar, a Libyan

commander and a party of ongoing Libyan civil war. After the commander

was invited to Admiral Kuzniecov, Russian aircraft carrier deployed in the

Mediterranean Sea, and held a video call with Russian Defence Minister

Sergei Shoigu, Malta (current Presidency of the Council of the EU) warned

that it causes a direct threat to the EU as Russia aims to provoke another

migration flow to the continent. This could significantly impact already

mentioned upcoming elections.

China and East Asia In the meanwhile, some developments in the Eastern Europe also are not in

favour of the EU. The new president of the Republic of Moldova, pro-

Russian in his geopolitical views Igor Dodon, during his first official visit to

Moscow, paid a number of controversial promises, including the recognition

of Transnistrian (a Moldovan breakaway territory) gas debt by the Republic

of Moldova or future withdrawal from the Association Agreement signed in

2014. Although these promises are legally non-binding as the president does

not possess such prerogatives, they demonstrate that Igor Dodon will be a

strong voice in pushing Russian agenda in Moldovan politics. The active

pro-Russian president does not discourage the EU’s engagement in

Moldova. The EU approved €100 million of Macro-Financial Assistance to

be paid to Moldova in 2017 and 2018 (up to €40 million of grants and up to

€60 million in medium-term loans at favourable financing conditions) a

couple of days before Dodon’s visit to Russia.

The last days of January brought also a deterioration of the situation in

Eastern Ukraine with regular fights in the area of Avdiyivka in the north of

Donetsk with at numerous Ukrainian soldiers killed and dozens wounded.

On a different note, the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko signed

a decree introducing the visa-free stay up to five days for citizens of 80

states, including the EU. The decree is applied only to visitors incoming to

the Minsk airport and is a demonstration of the country’s increasing

openness on tourists, but even most importantly on business visitors. This

decision has already caused some tensions in Russia – Belarus relations

which is a surprising development considering very close ties of both

countries. Russia's decision to restore control on the border with Belarus is a

clear sign of a disagreement with an open policy of its neighbour and

demonstrates Russian fear to lose control over another Eastern European

country.

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Federico

Salvati

Turkey and

Caucasus

2017 started badly for Turkey. During the New Year's Eve, the country

suffered a terrorist attack on the Reina night club in Beşiktaş, Istanbul.

Under the fire of a gunman, thirty-nine people were killed, including the

police officer on duty at the club entrance. At least 70 others were injured.

Turkish authorities identified the Uzbek Abdulkadir Masharipov (AKA Abu

Muhammed Horasani) as the only perpetrator. Masharipov was arrested on

16 January in Istanbul. As a consequence, on January 2nd, the Government

decided to extend the state of emergency for three months. It is important to

notice that this entailed the suspension of the European Convention on

Human Rights. The situation brought heavy consequences on the democratic

national context. President Erdoğan is still carrying on his crackdown on the

opposition, the military and the judiciary in a process that recalls 90s Putin

rise to power. Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım has recently called for a speed

up in the prosecution of the alleged responsible for the coup.

In connection with the troublesome situation of the country, the government

continues pushing its constitutional reform proposal. The reform assigns

great decisional and nominal powers to the president with a considerable

lack of checks and balances. The reform still needs to be approved by a

popular referendum to enter into force but if it would be the case, this could

mean a definite U-turn of Turkey on the democratisation process.

In foreign policy, disappointingly, Cyprus talks did not result in any solid

agreement. On a positive note, the talks have unleashed genuine hope among

the population and despite problems, it has been clearly stated that the talks

were not a failure despite that the parties have still uncompromising attitudes

on certain aspects of the negotiations. In the meanwhile, the trilateral

agreement with Russia and Iran over Syria remains a high priority. In the

24h of January, the three powers agreed to a ceasefire, although without the

consent of neither the Syrian government or the rebels.

The latest events in Turkey are of a great concern for Europe. In fact, all

things standing, EU strategic dependence of the country is still high but

Ankara's progressive assertiveness makes it difficult to cultivate the EU

foreign policy postulate of “creating a ring of friendly countries” in the

EU neighbourhood. It seems that earlier Turkish political elites have been

trying to support their power eroding strategies against the military class, by

fishing legitimacy from the European institutions. Now, the sudden U-turn

in the democratisation process might demonstrate a shift in this strategy.

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China and East Asia At the same time, in Azerbaijan, the crackdown of the government on the

civil society continues. On January 16th Rakhim Veliev, an activist of

the "Nida" youth movement, was detained and a few days later he

complained about torture and abuses perpetrated by the police. The reasons

for his arrest remain unclear at the moment. On January 20th Belarus agreed

to extradite to Azerbaijan Alexander Lapshin, an Israeli/Russian political

blogger. Lapshin has been accused of violating the no-entry policy to

the Karabakh territory. Meanwhile, a special rapporteur of the Parliamentary

Assembly of Council of Europe (PACE) urged the Azerbaijani government

to reform the judiciary since it appears weak and lacking independence. On

the contact line with the Nagorno-Karabakh, the skirmishes continue with

reciprocal accusations of the cease-fire violations.

In Armenia, the national ombudsman defined the Lapshin case as “a

violation of human freedom of speech”. The country, however, has its own

troubles to reckon with, concerning the same topic. On January

16 Gevorg Safaryan, an Armenian activist and a member of the "Constituent

Parliament", was sentenced to two years in jail. Another human rights

activist, Arthur Sakunts, defined the sentence as “political”.

During this month the UNHCR took the chance to express its concerns for

the 2300 Armenian Internally Displaced Persons (IPDs) from Azerbaijan

who are still stateless. The most notable question, though, has been the

preparation for the Karabakh referendum on the new constitution that

attempts to introduce a presidential system in the entity. In January, Central

Electoral Committee registered 101,207 individuals eligible to vote.

Finally, Georgia, on January 17, strengthened its relations with China

signing a memorandum of understanding on the One Belt One Road project,

while on January 17 a meeting between Foreign Minister,

Mikheil Janelidze and Erdoğan brought considerable results for the country.

In addition, a new agreement between Tbilisi and Moscow has been signed

concerning the Gazprom natural gas transit to Armenia. The contract has

come under fire by both political commentators and civil society. In

domestic politics, the internal conflict of United National Movement

resulted in a spilt of the party on January 12. The government still can not

find a satisfying solution to the reform of the judiciary.

It is almost frustrating for Europe to see Armenia and Azerbaijan pitted

against each other in a run-down on security and human rights. The

Azerbaijani case is particularly painstaking, especially, after Brussels 2012-

2013 high hopes on the democratisation of this country. Georgia instead

remains the success-story the EU in the Caucasus and the stronger

cooperation with China in Turkey do nothing but to consolidate the strategic

role of the nation in the region.

Jakub

Zientala

United States

of America

There were many fears and growing uncertainty, about what to expect from

the 45th President of the United States, Mr. Donald J. Trump. Numerous

foreign policy experts were disturbed by the incoherent and unclear

statements, made by Mr. Trump during his election campaign. Many of his

claims did not have any support in facts and seemed to be either based on

feelings or made up in a surge of the emotional rush. Therefore, January

2017 in the USA has been eclipsed by the transition of power and

inauguration of the new president.

First two weeks of his presidency can be summed up as the biggest reverse

in American foreign policy in seventy years. President Trump in his first

twelve days in office issued eighteen federal executive orders, starting with

day one just after being sworn in. Among those signed, the most notable

orders concern: building a wall on the border with Mexico, removing the

Affordable Medicare Aid (commonly known as Obamacare) and banning

refugees and travellers from a number of Muslim-dominated countries.

Before being sworn in on January the 8th Mr. Trump’s transition team asked

all political ambassadors nominated by President Obama to vacate their post

before January 21st leaving them little time to finish their official business.

This situation creates also very risky opening for national security for the

USA and creates a rift in the international policy of the USA. This kind of

situation is not unheard-of, however, typically it takes few weeks to few

months for ambassadors and other consular staff to be replaced by their

respective successors.

Cowboy style diplomacy of Mr. Trump and his impulsive internal policy

caused serious concerns among many US foreign partners as well as their

close allies. Many European heads of governments raised strong opinions

against Mr. Trump and stated that Europe must seek its own path,

independent from the USA, while others named Mr. Trump incompetent.

This can be summarised by the letter of the President of the European

Council, Mr. Tusk in which he named POTUS in office the biggest

existential threat to the Europeans. This situation may push European leaders

to cooperate closer with China on such matters as international trade and the

environmental protection.

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China and East Asia It still remains an important question whether the current policy of the

new American administration will continue. If so, it may drift the EU and

the USA apart. Mr. Trump expressed his negative opinion on the European

Union numerous times. Moreover, there are already visible potential seeds

of a conflict that can result in a clash between the partners. First one is a

matter of the international trade and the fact that Mr. Trump does

not favour international trade deals. Both TTP and TTIP have been

scrapped. The second is a matter of human rights, as Mr. Trump many

times voiced his favourable opinion on the subject of the use of torture.

The third is an unclear relation between Mr. Trump and Russia. And

finally, the biggest seed of conflict between world’s two partners is Brexit.

A few days ago Westminster voted bill allowing Prime Minister May to

start negotiations towards leaving the common market and the EU as a

whole. Brexit, being a test of the unity of the European Union member

states, creates a serious tear in the relation between the EU and the USA

because Mr. Trump has already expressed his support for the UK leaving

the Union and assured that USA and UK in short time will achieve a

comprehensive trade deal.

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Aleksandra

Stankovic

Western Balkans

The month of January has been rich in significant developments in the

relations between the EU and Western Balkan region. Primarily, the opening

of Chapter 26 (on education and culture) in Serbia’s EU accession talks has

been confirmed. The opening of the chapter represents for the Republic of

Serbia one-step forward on its way to the EU, followed by negotiations on

opening chapters 20 and 29 in the close future. Meanwhile, in Montenegro, a

public opinion survey on Montenegro’s EU integration process and

accession has been carried out. The results have shown that around 60% of

those questioned share a positive and supportive attitude toward the EU

membership, which is very encouraging for further membership talks and for

the EU as well. It demonstrates that the union maintains its strong influence

and positive image in the Balkans.

On 9th January 2017, the Republika Srpska celebrated its national holiday

and the 25th anniversary of its existence. Since there are numerous long-

standing animosities between Federation of BiH and the Republika Srpska,

the holiday always produces some controversies in BiH, while for Republika

Srpska it represents the battle for liberty, sovereignty, freedom of worship,

Serbian culture and language. Problems persist as Sarajevo and Republika

Srpska are far from maintaining positive relations but, as Serbian president

Tomislav Nikolić once said, there is no successful Federation of BiH

without successful Republika Srpska and reverse.

As two countries of the same region, it is important that the Republic of

Serbia and the Federation of BiH preserve good relations. Therefore, a

meeting of these two delegations was held in the Palace of Serbia in

Belgrade. The main topics of the meeting included bilateral cooperation,

preservation of peace and stability in the region, development of economic

relations, educational cooperation and attempts to solve some long-standing

issues, primarily the definition of the inter-state border. The meeting was

considered satisfying by both sides and further discussions are expected.

Another dialogue has been started in Brussels, between the presidents and

the prime ministers of the Republic of Serbia and Kosovo. The European

Commission has facilitated the dialogue. Because of the recent incident

with the Serbian train, the relations between these two countries have been

even more tensed than usually and there was a concern that it may

degenerate into a full-scale conflict.

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Therefore, the main purpose of the meeting was the normalisation of

relationship between the Republic of Serbia and Kosovo. As a reminder,

the incident concerned a Serbian train decorated with cultural and

historical motives of Kosovo and Metohija and the description “Kosovo is

Serbia” translated in 21 different languages that was planned to be

deployed on the route Belgrade (Serbia) – Kosovska Mitrovica (Kosovo).

The train was stopped in Raška after the special units of Kosovo police,

ROSU, surrounded the railroad. The incident significantly shook the public

in both countries and the relationship between the Republic of Serbia and

Kosovo. Due to this matter, the European Commission organised an urgent

meeting with representatives of both parties. The concrete outcomes of the

dialogue will be known in the upcoming time.

For the EU, good relations with neighbouring states and in the region are

very important. They represent also one of the main conditions for the EU

membership. Therefore, the already mentioned dialogues are of a great

importance, because they represent the willingness of Balkan countries to

end the conflicts and forget about differences in order to join the EU. In his

recent interview during the Belgrade Security Forum, Antonio Missiroli, the

Director of the EU Institute for Security Studies has mentioned that the

cooperation between the EU and Western Balkans is necessary because all

the main challenges the EU is confronted with today are important for

Balkans and cannot be solved without Balkans.

On the other hand, the EU is not the only power being strongly engaged in

the region. For example, the Republic of Serbia is not only maintaining a

close relationship with the EU and countries of the region but also with

Russia. In this new 2017 year, the Republic of Serbia has decided to

strengthen its military force and has signed an agreement with Russia to take

over its six MIG-29 fighter jets. The fighter jets will be decommissioned by

the Russian air force and the Republic of Serbia will only have to pay for

their modernisation. This deal demonstrates the interest of the Republic of

Serbia in increasing its security and military power, but also a close relation

between two countries and Russia’s growing influence in the Balkans.

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