Environmental Policy Under the New Administration

Reimagining Natural Resources Policy

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REIMAGINING NATURAL RESOURCES POLICY David J. Hayes November 15, 2016

Natural Resources

Policy

Energy Policy

Climate Change

Eco- Economics

Reimagining Natural Resources Policy

Energy and Arctic Policy in the New Presidential Administration Michael LeVine Pacific Senior Counsel, Oceana November 15, 2016

LAW

PUBLIC

SCIENCE

• Habitat Protection • Food Web Protection • Sustainable Fishing

• Pollution Reduction and Prevention • Controlled Development

Sustainable Living

Ecosystem-Based Management Nicolai Konyukhov

The Planning Challenge

Climate Change

2 0 1 6

2 0 5 6

On issues large and small, the Bush administration has spent the better part of two years rolling back Bill Clinton's environmental legacy. It has abandoned the Kyoto accord on global warming, weakened protections for wetlands and eased mining laws. Now it appears to be aiming at even bigger game -- the National Environmental Policy Act, regarded as the Magna Carta of environmental protection . . . - NY Times, Sept. 30, 2002

US court blocks Shell's 2007 offshore Alaska exploration plan Washington (Platts)--15Aug2007 Shell Oil cannot begin exploration and development work off Alaska's Arctic Coast this fall under an order handed down Wednesday by a US appellate court.

Some positive changes in the past eight years were inadvertent. The Bush administration's refusal to cap carbon dioxide emissions acted as a catalyst, with 24 states acting on their own to put in place regional cap and trade networks. Some 27 states enacted renewable portfolios, mandating local power companies to produce more of their electricity from sun, wind and solar power. - The Guardian, Jan. 16, 2009

Reimagining Natural Resources Policy

REIMAGINING FOOD AND FARMING POLICY

P E T E R L E H N E R

AGRICULTURAL LAND AND WATER USE

• 61% of land use in Continental U.S.

• Crops: 372 million

acres • Grazing: 775 million

acres • 80% of water use

THE TRUE COST OF FOOD Americans

consume an average of 3 burgers and nearly 3 liters of soda each week.

In 2014, we spent about $1.5 trillion on food in restaurants and stores.

THE HEALTH COST OF FOOD

Diet-related diseases > $1 trillion / year

Credit: PGIAM, ISTOCKPHOTO

THE SOCIETAL COST OF FOOD Declining property values, farm subsidies, worker assistance ≈ $50 billion / year Most farmers report losses, just 20% report gains > $25,000 / year

A North Carolina resident standing in his front yard, across the street from a CAFO. Credit: Donn Young

CAFO cleanup, pesticides, erosion, and nitrogen pollution > $200 billion / year

Credit: John Moran, Earthjustice

THE ENVIRONMENTAL COST OF FOOD

total U.S. GHGs

1 MtCO2e

SOURCES: FAO, EPA

In 2014, U.S. food system greenhouse gases came from:

18% of U.S. GHG emissions are from the food system (not including imported food)

CLIMATE HARMS: CO2, CH4, AND N2O

agriculture (crop production and animal production)

animal agriculture

crop production

+ fertilizer production + on-farm energy use + across the food supply chain (transport, wastewater treatment, processing, refrigeration, and composting)

+ residential cooking & refrigeration + food waste

METHANE Economy-wide: 29,233 kt CH4 = 730.8 MMT CO2e = 10.6% U.S. GHG Emissions

Agriculture: 9,506 kt CH4 = 237.7 MMT CO2e = 3.5% U.S. GHG Emissions

Food in Landfills: 2,367.6 kt CH4 = ~ 59.2 MMT CO2e = 0.9% U.S. GHG Emissions

NITROUS OXIDE Economy-wide: 1,354 kt N2O = 403.5 MMT CO2e = 5.9% U.S. GHG Emissions

Agriculture: 1,127 kt CH4 = 335.9 MMT CO2e = 4.9% U.S. GHG Emissions

CARBON DIOXIDE Economy-wide: 5,556,007 kt CO2 = 5,556 MMT CO2e = 80.9% U.S. GHG Emissions

Agriculture: 112,000 kt CO2 = 112 MMT CO2e = 1.6% U.S. GHG Emissions

REDUCED CLIMATE IMPACTS

• Fertilizer application • Cropping systems

• Grazing

• Manure storage

Meat Consumption and Climate

0

25

50

75

100

125

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Annu

al E

mis

sion

s (G

tCO

2e y

r-1)

LowMeat HighMeat HighMeat+Reductions BAU

/ e a r t h j u s t i c e @ e a r t h j u s t i c e e a r t h j u s t i c e . o r g

Reimagining Natural Resources Policy

The Clean Power Plan and Beyond

The Clean Power Plan and Beyond

Susan Tierney, Senior Advisor, Analysis Group; former Assistant Secretary for Policy,

United States Department of Energy; former Massachusetts Secretary for Environmental

Affairs

Arvin Ganesan, Vice President of Federal Policy, Advanced Energy Economy; former

Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Phil Schiliro, former White House Director of Legislative Affairs; Managing Director,

Schiliro Barnett LLC

Moderator: Jason Schwartz, Legal Director, Institute for Policy Integrity

Federal Policies To Date • Clean Power Plan and NSPS for Electricity Generators

• Litigation • Model trading rule for states and federal implementation plan

still pending • Methane: New Oil & Gas, New & Existing Landfills

• Also, BLM standards for onshore federal oil and gas leases still pending

• BACT for Large Stationary Sources • Mobile Source Efficiency Standards: New Cars & Trucks

• Also, Renewable Fuel Standards • ANPR for Aircraft

• DOE Appliance and Equipment Efficiency Rules • SNAP for HFCs • Global Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases in RIAs and EISs

U.S. International Commitments

• Paris Agreement and UNFCCC • 26-28% reduction by 2025

• Kigali Agreement on HFCs under Montreal Protocol • 80-85% reduction by 2050 • Financing for research and developing country

reductions

• ICAO Market-Based Reductions for International Aviation

• Mitigate emissions above 2020 levels

U.S. INDC for Paris Agreement

Climate Action Tracker Rating of U.S. Action

The Clean Power Plan and Beyond

The Clean Power Plan and Beyond: What to Expect in 2017….

Sue Tierney NYU School of Law – Institute for Policy Integrity November 15, 2016

NYU School of Law – November 2016 Page 2

A lot of sustained direction toward lower-carbon energy

Market fundamentals

State policy

Private action for clean energy

NYU School of Law – November 2016 Page 3

Markets: Natural gas versus coal prices (context)

Percentage Change in Average Prices for Natural Gas and Coal Since 2008

Tierney, “The U.S. Coal Industry: Challenging Transitions in the 21st Century,” September 26, 2016. EIA energy price data

NYU School of Law – November 2016 Page 4

Markets: Coal productivity, production, jobs (context)

Tierney, “The U.S. Coal Industry: Challenging Transitions in the 21st Century,” September 26, 2016. EIA energy price data

Productivity

Production

Employment

NYU School of Law – November 2016 Page 5

Markets: Electric generation mix (context)

Erosion of market share of coal-fired generation

Tierney, “The U.S. Coal Industry: Challenging Transitions in the 21st Century,” September 26, 2016. EIA energy price data

NYU School of Law – November 2016 Page 6

Markets: Generating capacity additions (context)

EIA, “Demand trends, prices, and policies drive recent electric generation capacity additions,” Today in Energy, March 18, 2016.

mber 2016 Page 7

Markets: Renewable capacity additions (context)

NYU School of Law – Nove

GTM Research/SEIA, U.S. Solar Market Insight: Executive Summary, 2015 Year-in-Review, March, 2016; http://www.awea.org/Resources/Content.aspx?ItemNumber=5059

Wind capacity

Solar capacity

NYU School of Law – November 2016 Page 8

Markets: Natural gas prices ahead

SNL Financial – OTC Global Holdings Data

4.000

3.500

3.000

2.500

2.000

1.500

1.000

0.500

0.000

Henry Hub (Forwards 12/2016-12/2022) (as of 11-10-2016) ($/MMBtu)

NYU School of Law – November 2016 Page 9

Markets: Renewable resource potential ahead

Biopower

Hydropower

Concentrating solar

PV solar

Wind

Geothermal

NREL, Renewable Energy Futures Study, 2016

Page 10

State policy: renewable energy ahead

http://congress.org/2015/03/19/states-consider-renewable-portfolio-standards-for- debate-in-2015/ Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency

NYU School of Law – November 2016

RPS with Solar Carve-Out

Renewable Portfolio Standards

NYU School of Law – November 2016 Page 11

State policy: clean energy, climate action ahead

Climate Action Plans GHG reduction targets

Energy Efficiency Standards Renewable & Alt Energy

http://www.c2es.org/us-states-regions/policy-maps

NYU School of Law – November 2016 Page 12

State policy: regulatory, legislative, stakeholder actions

Original Figure from Carl Linvill, “Utility Solar Business Models in a Time of Transition,” Utah Governor's Energy Development Summit, June 4, 2014, with updated information by Tierney

NY REV

Competitive Procurements

of DERs

NEM at wholesale

rate

No new NEM customers;

minimum bill approach

DERs in distribution utility plans

Utility of the Future: Merger context

Role of the Utility in DER s

No 3rd-party rooftop solar

New NEM customers have TOU

rates

NYU School of Law – November 2016 Page 13

Private action: corporate renewable-energy commitments

RE100: Companies with 100% RE

commitments

http://there100.org/; http://buyersprinciples.org/2015/09/23/9-more-companies-sign-on-to-corporate-renewable-energy-buyers-principles-2/

NYU School of Law – November 2016 Page 14

Sue Tierney Senior Advisor Analysis Group stierney@analysisgroup.com 617-425-8114

The Clean Power Plan and Beyond

Moving Forward on Federal Energy Policy

Moving Forward on Federal Energy Policy

Moving Forward on Federal Energy Policy