Early Warning and Response Bulletin
Transcript of Early Warning and Response Bulletin
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Early Warning And Emergency Response Directorate , NDRMC
Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: [email protected]
CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE KIREMT, 2018
Based on the global, regional and local weather systems
as well as their dynamical/statistical predictions, the
following conclusion can be drawn for the Kiremt
climate outlook of 2018.
The onset of the seasonal rain is expected to be
within the normal periods across the southwestern
and western Ethiopia, and slightly late over North-
west.
The weather forecast shows normal Cessation will be
practiced across Kiremt benefiting areas.
Many places of northern, northeastern, central,
western, southwestern, eastern, and adjoining Rift
Valley areas are expected to receive dominantly
above normal rainfall.
In addition, southern highlands and southern Ethiopia
are likely to receive normal tending to above normal
rainfall activity. On the other hand, normal rainfall is
expected over pocket areas of northwestern Ethiopia.
Occasional heavy fall is likely to occur at some point
in time during the season at places where above
normal rainfall is anticipated.
According to the monthly weather forecast, heavy
falls followed by flash flood is expected across some
places of half parts of western Ethiopia, North
Eastern and eastern parts of the country during July
2018.
As it is known, maximum rainfall amount and
relatively uniform distribution is expected during
July, close River and dams monitoring is so
advisable.
Moreover, during the first dekade July 2018, heavy
falls will result in flash flood at some places of
Oromia, Amhara, SNNPR, Benishangul Gumuz,
Gambella, Tigray, regions and Addis Ababa.
Thus, concerned bodies need to give attention ahead of
time to reduce the negative impact of flood across the
areas including all flood prone areas of the country.
From the past experience, for the likely of water born
disease after flood occurrence is high related
preparedness should be done ahead of time.
Early Warning Bulletin JULY 06, 2018
The 6th round of PSNP has been 88% completed and was dispatched in Somalia alone. The 7
th round
of PSNP has been completed (100%) and was dispatched in Oromia alone.
EWER Directorate, NDRMC www.dppc.gov.et
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Early Warning And Emergency Response Directorate , NDRMC
Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: [email protected]
Weather outlook and its possible impact for
the coming month of July, 2018
Under normal circumstance, Kiremt rainfall is
expected to be expanded and strengthened across
Kiremt benefiting areas during the month of July.
The rainfall during July is usually accompanied
by thunderstorm and hailstorm with prolonged
period of time.
Based on the monthly weather forecast given by
NMA, rainfall distribution is expected to cover
areas where normal rainfall starts (half parts of
western Ethiopia, north eastern, and eastern parts
of the country) as a result of strengthening of rain
bring systems during the July, 2018.
Furthermore, Oromia (East and West Wellega,
Jimma, IlluAbabbora, all Shoa zone, West and
East Harerghe, Arsi and Bale), Amhara (East
Gojam, North and South gondar Zones, Bahir Dar
Zuria, Awi, north Shoa, and North and South
Wello Zone), SNNPR (Kefa, Bench Maji,
Guraghe, Hadya, Welaita, Dawuro, Gamo Gofa,
Sidama Zones), all Zones of Benishangul Gumuz,
Gambella and Tigray Regions including Addis
Ababa will get normal and above normal rainfall
during the first dekad July, 2018.
The expected near normal rainfall over Somali
(JigJiga and Siti zones), Dire Dawa, Hareri, Afar
( Zone 1, 3, 4 and 5) and SNNPR (South Omo
and Segen) during the month of July, 2018 would
favour the availability of pasture and drinking
water to some extent.
Issues needing attention based on the
above seasonal weather forecast given
by NMA
The expected dominantly above normal rainfall over
northern, northeastern, central, western, southwestern,
eastern parts of the country and adjoining Rift Valley
areas during the season would result in flash flood as
well as overflow of rivers. Therefore, the concerned
people should take appropriate prevention measures
ahead of time particularly over low-lying areas,
near river banks and in areas where the soil water
infiltration capacity is poor ahead of time to
mitigate the effect of flood events on human lives and
livelihood. Likewise, to keep safe our dams found in
different regions from over flow and siltation, close
monitoring is also advisable during Kiremt 2018.
Water logging problem around water retention
areas might be possible in areas with poor
drainage system. For that reason, responsible
bodies need to work on possible water drainage
techniques early in order to reduce the negative
consequence of unnecessary moisture
concentration.
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Early Warning And Emergency Response Directorate , NDRMC
Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: [email protected]
The anticipated dominantly above normal rainfall
over many places of northern, northeastern,
central, western, southwestern, eastern, and
adjoining Rift Valley areas might trigger
landslides, particularly in susceptible
mountainous landscape.
Water born human diseases like AWD Outbreak
is likely to occur after any flood occurrence due
to heavy falls, as a result of poor sanitation and
improper use of contaminated water for drinking
and cleaning vegetable products in case of urban
agriculture.
Animal diseases are likely to emerge due to
contamination of pasture with flood across the
low-lying pastoral areas. Thus concerned bodies
need to carry out proper preparedness ahead of
time to reduce the impact on human and livestock
diseases.
In case of crop pest condition the expected
dominantly above normal rainfall in most parts of
Meher growing areas of the country might
suppress the infestation, distribution and the
overall normal biological processes of Fall
Armyworm. Thus, the concerned personnel should
exploit this good opportunity and use effective
protection measures to eradicate the spread of
pest in the areas. Nevertheless, in some pocket
areas where the rainfall distribution is likely
erratic, the infestation of the Fall Armyworm can
be aggravated. Therefore, the responsible
personnel need to give better attention on the
control of the distribution of the pest in areas
where below normal rainfall is likely.
Human Health, Nutrition and Drinking Water
Human Health
During the last two weeks of June 2018, 498
acute watery diarrhea (AWD) cases were reported
from Mile, Dubti, Afambo and Asayita woredas
of Afar Region and control measures are
undergoing.
Reportedly, unmentioned numbers of scabies
cases were reported from Dire Dawa City
administration, and it is totally controlled.
Similarly, 24 diarrhea cases were reported from
Guji Zone (Adola Rede Woreda), West Hararghe
Zone (Habro and Guba Koricha Woredas),
Borena Zone (Moyale woreda) of Oromia Region.
Following meher rain, a total of 116 malaria cases
were reported from Miyo, Taltale and Arero
woredas of Borena Zone of Oromia Region.
Similarly, unknown numbers of Malaria cases
were reported from Dire Dawa City
administration, Somali and Gambella regions.
The numbers of cases have been increasing in
Gambela Region following the currently Meher
rain. Reportedly, 4 typhoid cases were reported
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Early Warning And Emergency Response Directorate , NDRMC
Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: [email protected]
from West Hararghe Zone (Habro woreda) and
Guji Zone (Adola Rede woreda) of Oromia
Region.
Nutrition Situation
During the reporting period, unmentioned number
of malnutrition cases were observed on under five
children, and Lactating and pregnant women
living as IDPs in Bale Zone of Ormia Region.
Reportedly, a total of 981 OTP (842 cases) and
SC (139 cases) cases were reported from SNNPR.
Similarly, unknown numbers of <5 children
malnutrition cases were reported from Guji Zone
(Adola woreda) of Oromia Region.
In the third week of June, 109 under five severe
acute malnutrition cases were report from Tigray
Region. Of these total, 98 cases and 11 cases have
been receiving treatment in Outpatient therapeutic
program (OTP) and in Stabilization Center (SC),
respectively. Most of the Cases were from Central
and Eastern Zones of Tigray Region.
In Harari Region 33 SAM cases have been
receiving treatmentin Outpatient therapeutic
program (OTP) and Stabilization Center (SC) and
of these 18 cases are found in OTP and 15 cases
are found in SC.
In Amhara Region, world food program (WFP)
was providing TSFP for moderately malnourished
under five children and pregnant and lactating
women found in 21 woredas (9 priority one
woredas and 12 second generation woredas).
Similarly, in SNNPR, 10 Second Generation and
18 priority1 woredas were receiving TSFP ration.
Drinking Water
Following Meher and Belg rain, improvement of
water for human drink was reported from most
parts of the country. However, shortage of water
was reported from pocket areas of Oromia Region
(East Shewa Zone Fantale Woreda, 10 woredas of
East Hararghe Zone), Amhara Region (North
Gonder Zone Janamora, Beyeda, Telemit and
Debark woredas, Central Gondar Zone Mierab
Armacho, Miserak Belesa and Kinfazi Woredas,
East Gojam Zone Bibugn, Gonacha siso Ibse,
Enebise Sarmidir and Enarji enawuga Woredas,
North Shewa Zone Mida Woremo, Marha Bete,
Minjer Shenkora and Berehet Woredas and
Oromia Zone Bati Woreda), Somali Region (Erer
Zone Wangayi and Yohob woredas) and from
IDP sites found in Lega Hida and Salahadi
woredas and Afar Region (Eldere, Kori, Dubiti,
Berahili Erabiti, Dalol, Teru and and Gede
woredas).
To minimize these problems, 17 trucks were
under water rationing for 8 woredas of East
Hararghe Zone of Oromia Region. Similarly, in 6
woredas and 3 Zones of Amhara Region,
12,422,500 litre of water was distributed for a
total of 91,503 beneficiaries by Regional Disaster
Prevention and Food Security office and
Wagimira Zone in collaboration with Plan
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Early Warning And Emergency Response Directorate , NDRMC
Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: [email protected]
International Ethiopia. Unmentioned number of
trucks is under water tracking in Somali and Afar
Regions.
The coming month’s forecasts
Following Meher rain, there will be a fear of
acute watery diarrhea (AWD) expansion in all
Regions bordering to Afar Region and it
needs continues follow up.
The number of malaria case will be increased
in malaria prone areas due to favorable
weather conditions created for malaria vector
(Mosquito) breeding and this needs
implementation of strong disease surveillance.
The malnutrition cases will increase following
the hunger season and it needs strong routine
screening.
Recommendation
Mobilization and distribution of AWD,
malaria, scabies, diarrhea, typhoid supplies
for affected Regions.
Distribution of Antibiotics, Laundry & body
soaps for scabies affected areas.
Conduct surveillance at community level.
Public gathering health education on scabies
and AWD, prevention and control measures.
Promotion of good personal hygiene
practices.
Promoting washing/cleaning of patient’s
clothes and other contaminated materials.
Timely TSFP provision for those moderately
malnourished under five children and
pregnant and lactating women.
Crop and livestock condition based on the
weekly Regional Situation Update Report
Crop condition
SNNPR
The regional report stated that the Belg season
agricultural practices were on cease and crops
were found at various phonological stages. At
early sowing areas, crops were found at maturity,
on the other hand lately sown crops were at
vegetative, flowering and early maturity stage.
The Meher season agricultural practice had been
started at mid of June and first round tillage was
started in most parts of the region.
Oromia
In the region, Meher season activities have
already been started and crops were found from
sowing to early vegetative stage.
Amhara Region
In the region, a total of 240,146 ha of land had
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Early Warning And Emergency Response Directorate , NDRMC
Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: [email protected]
been planned to be cultivated in the Belg season
from which 194,653 ha was cultivated and
125,997 ha was covered with various crop
varities. Crops were found at early growing and
vegetative stage, and 21930 ha of crop were at
harvesting stage in North Shewa and South Wolo
Zones. Besides, the region had planned 4,465,835
ha of land to cultivete in the Meher season among
which 3,766,945 ha of land was on land
preparation and 1,076,640 ha of land being
covered with crops in 11 Zones.
Afar Region
The regional report stated that crops like Maiz,
Tomato, Cotton and Onion were sown in Afambo,
Asayeta, Awa, Awura, Dubeti and Amibara
Zones.
Gambella Region
In the region, Meher crop cultivation has already
been started and crops were found from early
growing to flowering stage.
Benishangul Gumuz Region
As the region stated, Meher season agricultural
activities had been started and crops were found
at early vegetative stage.
Tigray Region
Belg crops were being harvested as the regional
report stated and Meher crops were at early
growing stage.
Dire Dawa City Administration
As the regional report stated, Meher season crops
were found at early vegetative stage.
Harari Region
In the region, Meher season crops were found at
early vegetative stage.
Somali Region
As the region stated, crops were at maturity in
Dawa, Fafen and Siti Zones, but in areas where
flooded, sown crops were fully damaged and it
might couse food shortage in the area.
Crop pests and diseases
SNNPR
As indicated by the Region, Fall Armyworm has
been observed on Belg crops and the risk was
minimized by chemical and traditional methods
of contol. But, on irrigated crops in Sidama Zone
(Hawasa Zuriya, Shebedino, Borecha and Loka
Abaya Woredas), South Omo 7 Woredas (59
Kebele), GamoGofa Zone in 9 Woreda (97
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Early Warning And Emergency Response Directorate , NDRMC
Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: [email protected]
Kebele), Wolayeta Zone of 7 Woreda (in 112
Kebele), Dawuro Zone (Esera, Tocha and Mareqa
Woredas), KembataTemebaro Zone of 5 Woreda
(in 39 Kebele), Kafa Zones of all Woredas (in 59
kebeles), Konta Special Woreda (39 Kebeles),
Benchi Maji 5 Woredas (31 Kebeles), Sheka
Zone all Woredas (15 Kebeles), Baseketo Special
Woreda (9 Kebeles), Segen Leyu Hezebochi
Zones 4 Woredas (Burji, Konso, Derashe and
Amaro) in 22 Kebeles, Selete Zone 1 Woreda (3
Kebeles) and Gedio Zone Dila Zuriya wored (2
Kebeles). A total of 7576.47 ha land was infested.
Even though Chemical and cultural practices
were used to protect the land from pest damage,
the infestation of the worm was increasing from
time to time. Therefore, the concernd personel
need to give attention.
Oromia Region
The incidence of Fall Armyworm has been
observed on Maize and Sorghum crops in Bale,
West Hararghe, Guji, West Guji, Bale Zone, Arsi,
Jima, East Hararghe, East Wolega, West Woleg,
and Kelem Wolega Zone in 27 Woredas as
indicted by the Regional report. As a result, a
total of 36,564.5 ha of land was infested and
controlling effort was underway. Stock borer was
observed in West Haraghe Zones of 29 Woredas.
Amhara Region
In the region, infestation of American Fall
Armyworm was observed in North Shewa Zone (3
Woredas), Oromia Zone (3 woredas), North Wolo
Zone (9 Woredas) and West Gojjam Zone (one
Woreda) on Maize crop. A total of 5,200 ha of the
crop was infested out of which 3403 ha was
protected through chemical and traditional
methods.
Tigray Region
The region stated that Fall Armyworm infestation
was observed in North Western Zone (Tahetay
Qoraro Woreda) and Southern Zones of two
Woredas (Mayechew and Raya). A total of
4063.75 ha was infested and traditional methods
were used to control the pest.
Afar Region
The infestation of Fall Armyworm was seen in
Zone 1, Zone 3, and Zone 5 of the region.
Chemical method was used to control the
infestation.
Somali Region
The report of the region stated that Cut Worm,
Fall Armyworm and Stalk Borer infestation
were observed in Jarer, Earer and Dawa Zones,
respectivly.
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Early Warning And Emergency Response Directorate , NDRMC
Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: [email protected]
Pasture and Livestock Drinking Water
SNNPR
The report of the region for the last two weeks of
June 2018 indicated that there was no scarcity of
pasture and water supply in the majority of the
region, except a shortage of pasture land in the
central Zones. The adequate supply of pasture and
livestock drinking water was mainly due to
sufficient rainfall of the Belg season.
Oromia Region
The scarcity of pasture in Fentale woreda of East
Shewa Zone reported in the first two weeks of
June was still continuing for the last weeks of the
month.
Amhara Region
The report of the region for the last two weeks of
June 2018 indicated that the scarcity of pasture
and animal water supply that had been reported in
the past weeks was still prevailing in North
Gonder Zone (Janamora, Beyeda, Telemit &
Debark Zuria Woredas), Waghimira Zone (Sahila,
Ziqula & Abergele Woredas) and Oromia Zone
(Bati, Debre harewa & Jile Timuga). In North
Shoa Zone (Berehet, Meda Woromo, Merha Bete
& Minjar Shenkora), East Gojjam Zone (Enebse
Sar midir, Bibugn, Goncha & Enarji Enawuga
Woredas) and Central Gondar Zone (East Belesa
and Kinfaz woredas), the scarcity of livestock
water supply reported in the previous
subseconsequent weeks was still continuing in the
past two weeks. The report also indicated that
there was a slight scarcity of pasture and livestock
water supply in South Wollo Zone (low land
kebeles of Argoba and Kutaber woredas) and
South Gondar Zone (Simada, Este, Lay Gaynt and
Tach Gaynt woredas). In North wollo Zone, there
was scarcity of livestock water supply in Raya
Qobo (in 4 kebeles) and Wadila (in low land
kebeles) woredas. It was also reported that Habru,
Gidan, Dawunt, Raya Kobo, Meket, Wadila and
Bugina Woredas were deficient in pasture
availability.
Afar region
The report of the region for the previous two
weeks of June dictated that there was scarcity of
livestock feed in all woredas of the region.
Livestock Disease Outbreak
SNNPR
Despite the absence of livestock disease in
outbreak form, Lumpy Skin Disease was reported
in Alle woreda of Segen Akababi People Zone
and Amaro woreda (14 lowland kebeles). To
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Early Warning And Emergency Response Directorate , NDRMC
Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: [email protected]
control the disease, treatment and vaccination
campain have been implemented. The same
disease was also reported in Gena Bosa woreda (6
kebeles) of Dawuro Zone where the woreda
encountered scarcity of drugs and vaccine to
control the disease.
Oromia region
In Boke Woreda of West Harerghe (Meyu
kebele), Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) was reported
in 45 cattle, and it was controlled timely. LSD
was also reported in Das Woreda of Borena Zone
which affected 11 cattle of 4 farmers, and the
affected animals were being treated. Foot and
Mouth Disease (FMD) cases were reported in
Das, Arero and Dilo Woredas of Buno Bedele for
which treatments were being given. In Abe
Dengoro Woreda of Huro Gudru Wollega Zone,
on 29/9/2010 E.C, 13 cattle of a farmer were died
which was due to consumption of unknown plant.
Amhara region
African Horse Sickness was reported in Enarji
Enawuga Woreda of East Gojjam Zone which
killed 26 donkeys. In Kallu Woreda of South
Wollo Zone, Blackleg was reported in cattle of 2
kebeles. To control the disease (Blackleg), 900
cattle were vaccinated.
Gambella region
The regional report indicated that
Trypanosomiasis was reported in Abebo, Mekoy
and Jikawo Woredas.
Somali region
Contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia in goats,
Contagious Bovine Pleura Pneumonia in cattle,
Peste des Petits Ruminants in goats and various
Gastro Intestinal Parasite infections in sheep and
goats were reported in Dawa Zone. Anthrax and
unknown disease with clinical sign of diarrhea in
Siti Zone, and Sheep pox in Dolo Zone were
reported. The regional report also included an
unknown disease of camels manifested by clinical
sign of cephalomegaly (swelling of head).
Issues needing attention
For areas with scarce pasture and livestock
drinking water, the concerned body should
urgently respond to assist the provision of
alternative animal feeds.
In some regions where there was livestock
deaths of unknown cause, appropriate
diagnoses measures should be implemented to
identify and confirm the cause which inturn
helps apply proper control measures.
The responsible body should provide the
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Early Warning And Emergency Response Directorate , NDRMC
Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: [email protected]
required drugs where they were reported as
scarce.
As the the season is rainy in most parts of
the country, rapid reproduction of disease
vectors is expected. So, the concerned
bodies should be alarmed to implement
vector and vector borne disease prevention
measures.
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Early Warning And Emergency Response Directorate , NDRMC
Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: [email protected]
Annex 1
As can be seen from NDVI picture (21-30 June 2018 METEOSAT) Vegetation Greenness was
below normal. Vegetation Greenness was observed over western, northern, north western and
north eastern, including some parts of eastern and central Ethiopia. On the other hand, southern,
south eastern, some parts of central, eastern, western and pocket areas of northern Ethiopia
exhibited above normal vegetation greenness. Normal vegetation greenness was observed over
most of northern, north eastern, south eastern and some areas of eastern, central and western
parts of the country.