KITUI EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR NOVEMBER 2014 … · KITUI EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR NOVEMBER...
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KITUI EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR NOVEMBER 2014
EARLY WARNING FLAG
+Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification
Biophysical indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. The below average rainfall experienced in the last three months has impacted negatively on the state of pasture. The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) is equal to 12.57 in Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone, which clearly indicate a drought situation worsening especially in Mwingi North Sub-County. However the situation is expected to improve with the current rains being experienced across the county
Two production indicators and all access indicator are within the normal ranges for the period.
No livestock migration patterns were reported and this normal for this period of the year. Following the onset of rains and subsequent regeneration of pastures in mixed farming livelihood zone, the body conditions of animals are gradually improving and currently are within the normal ranges for the period. Finally, Milk production is above normal range and consumption is below long term average and normal ranges for the period. Since both biophysical and production indicators are outside normal ranges, the EW phase in the Marginal mixed farming livelihood is in alarm with an improving trend while the Mixed farming livelihood zone is in alert and improving due to the rains being received in these areas.
Drought risks are medium in the rains received during the month and those expected in December will mitigate in the short term the current drought situation. However, drought risks might increase considerably if no significant rains are received in the next one month, with a worsening alarm scenario developing. In view of the current alert situation, it is necessary to promptly activate the county drought contingency plans especially in support to livestock production.
Early Warning Phase Classification
LIVELIHOOD ZONE
EW PHASE
TRENDS
MIXED FARMING
ALERT IMPROVING
MARGINAL MIXED FARMING
ALERT IMPROVING
COUNTY ALERT IMPROVING
Drought risk Low √Medium High
Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges
% of average rainfall (Jun-Nov)
69 80-120
SPI-3month (TAMSAT) -0.19 -1 to 1
VCI-3month (Entire county) 26.98 35-50
VCI-3month (Mwingi North Sub county)
12.57 35-50
State of Water Sources 5 5
Production indicators Value Normal ranges
Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal
Livestock Body Conditions 4 4-5
Milk Production (in ml) 172.5 165
Livestock deaths (for drought)
No death No death
Crops area planted (%) NA % of LTA
Access Indicators Value Normal ranges
Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.36 0.47
Milk Consumption (in ml) 150 600
Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges
MUAC 9 12
Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.3 1.1
NOVEMBER 2014 EW PHASE
Current Drought Risk Low Medium High
▲
The onset of short rains is projected to improve the food security situation in the county in the next three months.
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BIO-PHASYCAL INDICATORS
1. MEASURING DROUGHT HAZARD
1.1. METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall
The county experienced a late onset of rains during the first dekad of the month of November. Both temporal and
spatial distribution varied across livelihood zones with Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone receiving heavy
downpours in Mwingi north (Tharaka Agricultural office Rainfall station, 286 mm in six days) and less rainfall in
Kitui South(Mutha Assistant County Coordinators office rain gauge, 22.6mm in 8days). In the Mixed farming
Livelihood Zone the number of wet dates ranged between eight to 15 days (Migwani Town Agriculture office 202mm
in 14 days, Kanyangi town station 166.6mm in 12 days and Mbitini Agric. Office rain gauge 196.2mm in 11 days).
Towards the end of the month the weather was cloudy with sunny intervals during the day. Compared to the LTA the
amount of rainfall received was below normal as indicated in the Figure 1 below.
Rainfall station data:
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Mean (2006-2013 42.5 15.6 52.4 119. 9.1 3.1 0 1 0 52.3 187. 81.6
Year 2013 18.9 0 77 140 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.5 84.2
Year 2014 0 55.3 64.1 85.5 0 0 0 0 0 23.4 141.
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Am
ou
nt
in m
m
Month
Rainfall Performance- Mwingi Central Station
Source: MAWI Kitui
Figure 1 Rainfall Performance
The rainfall data for the last six-month period (Jun-November 2014) show a significant deficit. The cumulative
rainfall in the six month period amounts to only 165.2mm against the long term rainfall average for the same period
amounting to 239.4mm. This is only 69% of the average rainfall for period (or an absolute deficit of 74.2mm)
The figure below indicates a 3 month Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) up to the month of November is below
average but within the thresholds of -1 to 1. The index improved in the month of November to stand at -0.19 which is
below average but within the thresholds. For Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone (Mwingi North Sub County)
the SPI is at -0.37 which is below average. The SPI further confirms rainfall deficit from normal in some parts of the
county.
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1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT
1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI)
Below are the MODIS satellite derived images depicting the aggregated 3-month VCI for period Jan-Nov 2014. From
the image it appears quite evident a deficit in vegetation condition in the Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone in
Mwingi North, Mwingi Central, Kitui East and Mwingi West Sub Counties.
The VCI-3month (Aug-Oct 2014) for the entire Kitui County is equal to 26.98 which is moderate drought. However
the vegetation status is much worse in the Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone, with the lowest VCI 3-month
recorded in Mwingi North Sub-County amounting to 12.57 in the band corresponding to severe drought. The index is
much better in the Mixed farming livelihood with the highest value recorded in Kitui Rural Sub County
recording a VCI value of 42.94 which is the category of no drought.
Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories
Color VCI values Drought category
3-monthly average
≥50 Wet
35-50 No Drought
21 to 34 Moderate Drought
10 to 20 Severe Drought
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1.2.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions)
Both quality and quantity of natural vegetation and pasture is improving. Lush grass is available across all livelihood
zones and the rate of regeneration of shrubs is high and the ranged from fair to good. More luxuriant regeneration was
observed in Kitui Central Sub County, and Sections of Kitui East(Mbitini and Kisasi areas) where rains began in
October.
1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT
1.3.1 Water Resource
The main water sources during the month were traditional river wells, pans and dams and Natural Rivers at 26%, 26%
and 20% respectively as shown in the figure below. In terms of period of use, coomutnity interviews indicated that
during the first dekad communities in some sections of Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone relied on water
from boreholes before those with roof catchment structures switched to them upon the onset of rains. Traditional river
wells were most relied upon due to their close proximity to the communities and water is free. Water from permanent
and seasonal rivers was available and accessible to communities living near Rivers and streams. Many open water
surface facilities have recharged across the livelihood zones and thus water was also available in rock catchments,
shallow wells, springs and natural ponds.
Pans & Dams
26%
Traditional
River Wells
26%
Natural Rivers
20%
Rock
Catchments
9%
Natural
Ponds
6%
Shallow
wells
4%Boreholes
0%Others
9%
Water Sources
Source: NDMA data
State of water sources in Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone (October 2014)
INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE DESCRIPTION
5 Normal The water situation is normal for the period
SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS
2.1 Livestock Production
2.1.1 Livestock Body Condition
Generally, the body condition for cattle ranged from fair to poor while that of goats was good. The body condition for
livestock is expected to improve due to improving condition of browse and pasture. The current livestock body
condition is moderate; neither fat nor thin and this situation corresponds approximately to a body condition score of 5
(Normal/alert)
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2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns
No unusual in and out migration were reported and this is normal at this time of the year
2.1.3 Livestock Diseases No major livestock disease outbreak were reported
2.1.4 Milk Production
Milk production per household rose by 2% in November compared to the previous month. Most of the milk produced
during the month was from goats. The current production of 172.5ml per day is below year 2013 average of 262.5ml
per day and above long term average of 165ml per day respectively but overall the trend is normal as indicated in
figure below
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Mean (2010-2013 34 55 32 51 50 61 52 26 23 18 22 30
Year 2013 73 69 65 71 56 56 52 46 39 34 35 75
Year 2014 66 54 57 63 77 60 50 41 34 21 23
0102030405060708090
% 7
50
ml p
er
day
Month
Household Milk Production- Kitui County
Figure 2 Milk Production, Source NDMA Data
2.1.5 Livestock deaths
No unusual livestock deaths reported
2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Date of planting and area planted
During the month farmers were: replanting areas whose seeds rot, undertaking wet planting during the first week of
the month and late planting towards the end of the month. In the few areas were the early planted crop managed to
germinate beans have developed the second set of leaves while maize has attained 30 centimetres height. In others the
crop had just germinated and is in good health.
ACCESS INDICATORS
3.1 Livestock prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade
Terms of trade d rose by 4% from a value of 32% in October to 36% in November, The current value is lower
compared to a similar period in 2013 and long term average as shown in the Figure 3 below
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J F M A M J J A S O N D
Mean (2007-2013 36 36 38 34 35 40 40 45 45 45 47 42
Year 2013 39 25 30 29 35 29 32 33 38 38 45 40
Year 2014 40 38 34 37 46 43 41 35 36 32 36
05
101520253035404550
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Month
Cereal:Meat Price Ratio/Purchasing Power-Kitui County
Figure 3 Purchasing Power
3.1.2 Cattle prices
The average household price of cattle declined by 11.2% to stand at Kshs.27,325 from Kshs24,625 last month.
However, the prices varied across livelihood zones with better prices being reported in Marginal mixed farming
livelihood zone of kshs.38, 750 and Kshs.16,000 in Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone. Notably, during this period not
many household engaged in selling cattle since schools were closing and the need to raise huge amounts of money
was less.The current price is higher than the LTA and similar period in 2013 as shown in the figure 4 below.
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC
Base Year 2009-2013 14,987 17,782 16,363 17,794 19,197 20,226 19,798 18,476 15,958 16,853 18,154 18,792
2,013 21,143 26,776 30,099 29,342 27,509 37,288 36,667 27,209 23,038 29,919 30,000 30,517
2014 32,138 28,350 33,426 29,336 28,250 29,417 29,584 29,584 28,396 24,625 27,375
-5,000
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
Pri
ce
pe
r h
ea
d i
n K
sh
s
Month
Average Price of Cattle- Kitui County
Figure 4 Cattle Price
3.1.3 Goat prices
The average household price of goats declined to Kshs. 2,659 from Kshs.2, 800 last month. Prices were higher in
Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone at Kshs.2,758 per goat with some areas reporting low price of compared
to Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone where price ranged from 2,500 to 2756. Farmers engaged in selling
goats to raise money to buy farm inputs like seeds and pay for farm hands who were engaged in farm labour. The
price was less compared to the same period in 2013 but higher than LTA as shown in the figure below.
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JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC
Base Year
2009-20132,074 2,387 2,337 2,292 2,252 2,242 2,205 2,152 2,298 2,271 2,318 2,548
2,013 3,245 3,670 3,472 3,315 2,988 3,270 3,185 2,960 3,043 3,023 3,048 3,267
2,014 3,038 3,338 3,021 3,060 3,128 2,848 2,872 3,022 2,891 2,800 2,659
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Pric
e p
er h
ea
d i
n K
sh
Month
Average Price of Goats-Kitui County
3.2 Livestock Sales
3.2.1 Cattle Sale Rate
Average sales rate for cattle rose to 1.1% from 0.8% last month. Compared to the long term average the trend is
normal but below the same period in 2013 as shown in the Figure 5 below.
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Mean (2007-2013 1.3 2 1.6 1.2 2.3 2.4 2.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.1 1
Year 2013 1.1 1 1.8 1.9 0.9 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.9
Year 2014 1.5 0.8 1.7 2.2 2.3 0.6 1.6 2.2 0.8 0.8 1.1
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Sale
Rat
e
Month
Average Cattle Rate-Kitui County
Figure 5 Cattle Sale Rate
3.2.2 Goat Sale Rate
Average sales rate for goat increased to 2.5% in November from 2.4% last month. This implies that more goats were
sold in November compared to previous month. Relatively, more goats were sold in mixed farming livelihood zone
compared to marginal mixed farming livelihood zone. The current sales rate trend for goat is below normal as shown
in figure below
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3.3 Availability of Cereals and Legumes
3.3.1 Maize
The average price of a kilo of maize remained stable at Ksh.3 per kilo as it was last month. The prices in Marginal
mixed farming Zone varied form Ksh 29 in Mwingi to Ksh 33 in rural areas of Kitui South and Kitui East Sub county
while in Mixed farming Livelihood Zones, price ranged between Ksh 30 and 34. The trend is below normal compared
to the LTA and same period in 2013 as indicated the figure below.
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC
Base Year 2009-2013 31.2 29.7 29.4 30.5 32.8 33.3 33.2 32.3 32 32.6 33.3 32.5
2013 39 34 33.5 33 32 33 32.5 33.5 34.5 37.5 38 37.5
2014 37 36.5 36.5 36.5 37.5 39.5 39 36 34 32 32
05
1015202530354045
Pric
e p
er k
ilo
in
Ksh
Month
Average Price of a Kilo of Maize-Kitui County
3.3.2 Beans
The average price of a kilo of beans increased by six percent to Kshs.76 from Kshs.72.5 last month. The prices in both
Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were Kshs.77 and Kshs.75 per kilo respectively. The
rise in price is attributed to increase in demand during the planting season. The trend is below normal compared to the
LTA and the same period in 2013 as indicated in the figure below
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JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC
Base Year 2009-2013 59.9 61.3 63.7 66.8 69.8 70.8 68.9 68.9 69.4 70.9 73.5 67.4
2013 64 58.5 62 69 71 71 71 73.5 75 76 86 72
2014 73 76 78 80 81 80 77 75 72.5 72.5 76
0102030405060708090
100P
ric
e i
n K
shs
Month
Average Price Per Kilo of Beans-Kitui County
3.3.3 Green grams
The average household green grams prices rose to Kshs.137 per kilo in November from Kshs.106 in October. The
prices in both Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were Kshs.137 and Kshs.136 per kilo
respectively. The sharp rise in prices has been attributed to high demand for planting seeds during the planting season.
The rise in price is above normal at this time of the year as shown in the figure below.
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Mean (2009-2013 67 66 66 72 67 68 67 71 75 84 84 86
Year 2013 54 54 46 54 46 53 52 53 49 66 70 72
Year 2014 56 69 79 85 82 81 66 61 81 106 137
020406080
100120140160
Pric
e pe
r ki
lo in
ksh
Month
Average price of green grams- Kitui County
Source: NDMA Data
3.4 Access to food and water 3.4.1 Availability of milk for household consumption
The average household milk consumption remained at 150ml per household per day in November as it was during the
previous month and this is below normal compared to LTA and year 2013 range as seen in figure below
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J F M A M J J A S O N D
Mean (2007-2013 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.9
Year 2013 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6
Year 2014 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.6
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n in
75
0m
l bo
ttle
Month
Average household milk consumption-Kitui County
Source: NDMA Data
3.4.2 Availability of water for household consumption
3.4.2.1 Household access and utilization
The average walking distances to water points declined from 4.1km to 2.7km. The marginal mixed farming and mixed
farming livelihood zones posted an average walking distance of 2.4km and 3km respectively. The distances were high
compared to the LTA and similar period in 2013 as indicated in the figure below.
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Mean (2007-2013 2.5 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.4 3.4 4 4 4.3 3.8 1.9 1.7
Year 2013 2 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.1 2.6 2
Year 2014 2.5 3.2 3.3 2.5 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.1 2.7
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
5
kilo
me
tre
s
Month
Average Distance to Water Points
3.4.2.2 Livestock access to water
The average grazing distances to water points declined to 2.6km from 3.9km last month. The marginal mixed farming
and mixed farming livelihood zones posted average grazing distances of 2km and 3.1km respectively. The decline in
distances is mainly attributed to availability and access to water and forage at the normal grazing field following the
onset of rains that has recharged water facilities and regenerated growth and development of pastures across the
county. Relatively, current average grazing distances are above long term mean and to a similar period in 2013 as
shown in the figure below.
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J F M A M J J A S O N D
Mean (2010-2013 2.4 2.6 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.7 4 4.1 3.9 1.7 1.8
Year 2013 2 2.3 2.7 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.7 2.4 1.8
Year 2014 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.3 3.2 3.7 3.8 4 4 3.9 2.6
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
kilo
me
tre
s
Month
Average Grazing Distance
UTILIZATION INDICATORS
4.1 Health and Nutrition Status
4.1.1 MUAC
The number of children at risk of malnutrition rose to 9% in November from 8% last month. The average rate was at
8.9% in both the Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones respectively. This attributed to decline
in availability and access to nutritious food. The current level of malnutrition (Number of children with
MUAC
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4.2.3 Casual Labour
This was the main source of income for the community accounting for approximately 50% of the income for the
month. Labour opportunities were available in during the planting season as farm hands and engagement in weeding.
The average wage rate was Ksh.210 with Mixed farming livelihood zone recording a wage rate of Ksh 246 per day
compared to Ksh 174 in Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone..
4.2.4 Other sources
Other sources of income included, remittance (19%), Formal Employment (12%) and petty trading (11%)
Casual Labour50%
Remmitance19%
Formal Employment
12%
Petty trade11%
Charcoal4%
Gifts1%
Sale of livestock3%
Source of Income-Kitui County
4.3 Coping Strategy
4.3.1 Coping Strategy Index
The coping strategy index declined to 1.2% in November from 1.3% last month. The coping strategy index in both
Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were 1.4% and 1% respectively.
The index is above normal compared to similar period in 2013 and long term average as shown in figure below
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Mean (2007-2013 1 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2
Year 2013 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 1 1.1 1.1 1
Year 2014 0.9 0.7 0.8 1 1.1 1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Ind
ex
Month
Coping Strategy Index- Kitui County
5.0 Current Intervention Measures and Recommendations
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5.1 Ongoing Non food interventions
Repair and rehabilitation of key strategic Community boreholes
Repair of roads
Outpatient Therapeutic Programme (OTP)
Provision of fuel subsidy
Water trucking
5.2 Ongoing Food interventions
Cash distribution for PRRO programme
Supplementary feeding program
School feeding programme
Relief seed distribution.
6.0 Recommendations
Promotion small holder horticultural production through development of irrigation infrastructure.
Repair of soil and water conservation/water harvesting structures and integrated soil fertility management
Repair and rehabilitation of key strategic Community boreholes.
Livestock breed improvement. De-worming, vaccination and treatment of livestock against notifiable
diseases
Enhanced sensitization to the community on how to practice good hygiene standards.
Distribution and replacement of worn out rain gauges